Tropical Storm Alvin is the 1st in the Eastern Pacific for 2025
Tropical Storm Alvin, the first tropical cyclone of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, formed Thursday, May 29, 2025. It first developed as Tropical Depression One-E on Wednesday, May 28, more than 800 miles south-southeast off the southern tip of Baja California. According to the National Hurricane Center, by Thursday morning the tropical depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Alvin when it reached wind speeds of more than 39 mph. It’s also the first named storm in the Western Hemisphere for 2025.
By Thursday evening, Alvin had sustained winds of 60 miles per hour. It was moving to the northwest at 12 miles per hour. Alvin will move around an area of high pressure centered over central Mexico, which will change its movement to the north Friday and Saturday. While it will move near the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula Saturday night, it does not look to make direct landfall as a tropical storm. Rain and gusty winds are possible Saturday night and Sunday morning as what is left of Alvin moves over the southern tip of the peninsula.
Warm ocean water and low wind shear in the Eastern Pacific Ocean have been fueling Tropical Storm Alvin. Although it gradually strengthened through Thursday, forecasters don’t expect those favorable conditions to continue. Alvin will eventually move into an area with cooler ocean water, higher wind shear and dry air. This will gradually weaken Tropical Storm Alvin. It is forecast to become a non-tropical area of low pressure by late Saturday, May 31.
Eastern Pacific hurricane season
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15 and runs through November 30. This is a bit longer than the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1 and runs through November 30. While the Eastern Pacific season begins in the middle of May, on average the first named storm in this basin doesn’t form until June 10. And although this one formed in May, that doesn’t necessarily mean the season is off to an early start.
Tropical storms and hurricanes can form anytime conditions are favorable. But this is more likely to occur from May through November, with most tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific forming between late June and early October. While the Atlantic hurricane season has a distinct peak in activity in the middle of September, the Eastern Pacific season has a few subtle peaks in activity across the entire season.
What to expect in the Eastern Pacific this hurricane season
A typical season for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season (based on a 30-year average from 1991 to 2020) will have 15 named storms (this includes both tropical storms and hurricanes), 8 hurricanes (tropical cyclones with wind speeds greater than 74 miles per hour) and 4 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are those that become a category 3, 4 or 5.
On May 22, 2025, forecasters released their outlook of what to expect for the upcoming season. Experts and meteorologists from NOAA, the National Hurricane Center, Climate Prediction Center and the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) are expecting a below-average season. They are calling for 12-18 named storms, 5-10 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
You will notice that the range storms and hurricanes does include above-average totals. While a below-average season is expected, there is still some uncertainty. Forecasters are currently calling for a 50% chance for the below-average conditions, 30% change for near-average and a 20% chance for an above-average season.
Explaining the forecast
A few reasons behind this forecast are tied to water temperatures and different circulations that may be developing.
Ocean water temperatures in the eastern Pacific are currently near-average, while the waters of the Atlantic are running warmer than average. These water conditions are feeding into certain phases of climate patterns called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (MDO). Experts say when they see this combination of patterns, there is usually below-average tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific. The tropical Pacific is dependent on the variability of these time-scale patterns.
To learn more about these patterns and their influence, you can visit here.
Remember to keep up-to-date with all tropical development by visiting the National Hurricane Center’s website.
Bottom line: The first named storm of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season – Tropical Storm Alvin – has developed. Forecasters don’t expect any direct impacts to land. Alvin should weaken over the coming days. This is just the first of what is forecast to be a below-average season in terms of tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Read more: NOAA forecast: Atlantic hurricane season above average in 2025
The post Tropical Storm Alvin is 1st of the season in Eastern Pacific first appeared on EarthSky.
from EarthSky https://ift.tt/FAonI3x
Tropical Storm Alvin is the 1st in the Eastern Pacific for 2025
Tropical Storm Alvin, the first tropical cyclone of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, formed Thursday, May 29, 2025. It first developed as Tropical Depression One-E on Wednesday, May 28, more than 800 miles south-southeast off the southern tip of Baja California. According to the National Hurricane Center, by Thursday morning the tropical depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Alvin when it reached wind speeds of more than 39 mph. It’s also the first named storm in the Western Hemisphere for 2025.
By Thursday evening, Alvin had sustained winds of 60 miles per hour. It was moving to the northwest at 12 miles per hour. Alvin will move around an area of high pressure centered over central Mexico, which will change its movement to the north Friday and Saturday. While it will move near the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula Saturday night, it does not look to make direct landfall as a tropical storm. Rain and gusty winds are possible Saturday night and Sunday morning as what is left of Alvin moves over the southern tip of the peninsula.
Warm ocean water and low wind shear in the Eastern Pacific Ocean have been fueling Tropical Storm Alvin. Although it gradually strengthened through Thursday, forecasters don’t expect those favorable conditions to continue. Alvin will eventually move into an area with cooler ocean water, higher wind shear and dry air. This will gradually weaken Tropical Storm Alvin. It is forecast to become a non-tropical area of low pressure by late Saturday, May 31.
Eastern Pacific hurricane season
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15 and runs through November 30. This is a bit longer than the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1 and runs through November 30. While the Eastern Pacific season begins in the middle of May, on average the first named storm in this basin doesn’t form until June 10. And although this one formed in May, that doesn’t necessarily mean the season is off to an early start.
Tropical storms and hurricanes can form anytime conditions are favorable. But this is more likely to occur from May through November, with most tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific forming between late June and early October. While the Atlantic hurricane season has a distinct peak in activity in the middle of September, the Eastern Pacific season has a few subtle peaks in activity across the entire season.
What to expect in the Eastern Pacific this hurricane season
A typical season for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season (based on a 30-year average from 1991 to 2020) will have 15 named storms (this includes both tropical storms and hurricanes), 8 hurricanes (tropical cyclones with wind speeds greater than 74 miles per hour) and 4 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are those that become a category 3, 4 or 5.
On May 22, 2025, forecasters released their outlook of what to expect for the upcoming season. Experts and meteorologists from NOAA, the National Hurricane Center, Climate Prediction Center and the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) are expecting a below-average season. They are calling for 12-18 named storms, 5-10 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
You will notice that the range storms and hurricanes does include above-average totals. While a below-average season is expected, there is still some uncertainty. Forecasters are currently calling for a 50% chance for the below-average conditions, 30% change for near-average and a 20% chance for an above-average season.
Explaining the forecast
A few reasons behind this forecast are tied to water temperatures and different circulations that may be developing.
Ocean water temperatures in the eastern Pacific are currently near-average, while the waters of the Atlantic are running warmer than average. These water conditions are feeding into certain phases of climate patterns called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (MDO). Experts say when they see this combination of patterns, there is usually below-average tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific. The tropical Pacific is dependent on the variability of these time-scale patterns.
To learn more about these patterns and their influence, you can visit here.
Remember to keep up-to-date with all tropical development by visiting the National Hurricane Center’s website.
Bottom line: The first named storm of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season – Tropical Storm Alvin – has developed. Forecasters don’t expect any direct impacts to land. Alvin should weaken over the coming days. This is just the first of what is forecast to be a below-average season in terms of tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Read more: NOAA forecast: Atlantic hurricane season above average in 2025
The post Tropical Storm Alvin is 1st of the season in Eastern Pacific first appeared on EarthSky.
from EarthSky https://ift.tt/FAonI3x
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