aads

Will you see the moon hide Aldebaran?

Tonight – September 10, 2017 – you might see the moon rising in the east before your bedtime if you’re a night owl. But you’d be better off to wake up before dawn to see the moon in front of the constellation Taurus, higher up in the predawn sky. Look for for the moon, then seek out Taurus’ two prominent signposts: the star Aldebaran and the tiny, dipper-shaped Pleiades star cluster. The moon is about to take dead aim on Aldebaran and hide it from view.

Every month, as the moon makes its rounds in front of the constellations of the zodiac, it always travels in front of the Taurus for several days. On September 10, the moon is moving toward Aldebaran on the sky’s dome. Depending on where you live worldwide, the moon will pass to the north of this star, south of this star, or will occult (cover over) this star.

If you live in Hawaii or the West Coast of North America, you’re in a position to watch this lunar occultation of Aldebaran before dawn on September 12. As always, the illuminated side of the waning moon points in the moon’s direction of travel: eastward. So Aldebaran will disappear behind the moon’s illuminated side and then reappear on the moon’s dark side.

Worldwide map via IOTA. The area in between the solid white lines shows where lunar occultation of the star Aldebaran takes place before dawn on September 12, 2017. The short blue lines show where the occultation happens at morning dawn and the red lines where the occultation occurs in daylight.

The worldwide chart above shows where this occultation of Aldebaran happens on September 12. The area in between the white lines shows where the occultation occurs in a nighttime sky. The short blue lines depict where the occultation take splace at morning dawn and the red lines where the occultation is in a daytime sky. For your convenience, we give the occultation times for four different localities in local time (no coversion necessary):

Lunar occultation of Aldebaran on September 12, 2017

Sitka, Alaska
Occultation begins: 4:03:05 a.m. local time
Occultation ends: 4:23:35 a.m. local time

Vancouver, Canada
Occultation begins: 4:46:12 a.m. local time
Occultation ends: 5:52:26 a.m. local time

San Diego, California
Occultation begins: 4:37:08 a.m. local time
Occultation ends: 5:49:41 a.m. local time

Honolulu, Hawaii
Occultation begins: 12:31:04 a.m. local time
Occultation ends: 1:34:52 a.m. local time

Want to know when the occultation takes place for you? Click here to find the occultation times for over five hundred localities. But remember to convert Universal Time (UTC) to your local time:

Eastern Daylight Time: UTC – 4 hours
Central Daylight Time: UTC – 5 hours
Mountain Daylight Time: UTC – 6 hours
Pacific Daylight Time: UTC – 7 hours
Alaska Daylight Time: UTC – 8 hours
Hawaiian Standard Time: UTC -10 hours

Bottom line: Even if you miss the lunar occulatation of Aldebaran, you can still watch the waning moon traveling eastward in front of the constellation Taurus the Bull over the next several mornings.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2jczNkw

Tonight – September 10, 2017 – you might see the moon rising in the east before your bedtime if you’re a night owl. But you’d be better off to wake up before dawn to see the moon in front of the constellation Taurus, higher up in the predawn sky. Look for for the moon, then seek out Taurus’ two prominent signposts: the star Aldebaran and the tiny, dipper-shaped Pleiades star cluster. The moon is about to take dead aim on Aldebaran and hide it from view.

Every month, as the moon makes its rounds in front of the constellations of the zodiac, it always travels in front of the Taurus for several days. On September 10, the moon is moving toward Aldebaran on the sky’s dome. Depending on where you live worldwide, the moon will pass to the north of this star, south of this star, or will occult (cover over) this star.

If you live in Hawaii or the West Coast of North America, you’re in a position to watch this lunar occultation of Aldebaran before dawn on September 12. As always, the illuminated side of the waning moon points in the moon’s direction of travel: eastward. So Aldebaran will disappear behind the moon’s illuminated side and then reappear on the moon’s dark side.

Worldwide map via IOTA. The area in between the solid white lines shows where lunar occultation of the star Aldebaran takes place before dawn on September 12, 2017. The short blue lines show where the occultation happens at morning dawn and the red lines where the occultation occurs in daylight.

The worldwide chart above shows where this occultation of Aldebaran happens on September 12. The area in between the white lines shows where the occultation occurs in a nighttime sky. The short blue lines depict where the occultation take splace at morning dawn and the red lines where the occultation is in a daytime sky. For your convenience, we give the occultation times for four different localities in local time (no coversion necessary):

Lunar occultation of Aldebaran on September 12, 2017

Sitka, Alaska
Occultation begins: 4:03:05 a.m. local time
Occultation ends: 4:23:35 a.m. local time

Vancouver, Canada
Occultation begins: 4:46:12 a.m. local time
Occultation ends: 5:52:26 a.m. local time

San Diego, California
Occultation begins: 4:37:08 a.m. local time
Occultation ends: 5:49:41 a.m. local time

Honolulu, Hawaii
Occultation begins: 12:31:04 a.m. local time
Occultation ends: 1:34:52 a.m. local time

Want to know when the occultation takes place for you? Click here to find the occultation times for over five hundred localities. But remember to convert Universal Time (UTC) to your local time:

Eastern Daylight Time: UTC – 4 hours
Central Daylight Time: UTC – 5 hours
Mountain Daylight Time: UTC – 6 hours
Pacific Daylight Time: UTC – 7 hours
Alaska Daylight Time: UTC – 8 hours
Hawaiian Standard Time: UTC -10 hours

Bottom line: Even if you miss the lunar occulatation of Aldebaran, you can still watch the waning moon traveling eastward in front of the constellation Taurus the Bull over the next several mornings.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2jczNkw

2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #36

A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook page during the past week. 

Editor's Pick

6 Questions on Hurricane Irma, Harvey and Climate Change

Hurricane Irma 

Hurricane Irma, a Category 5 storm, barrels toward the Florida coast on Sept. 7, 2017. Credit: NOAA GOES Project via Getty Images

A third of the way into the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA looked at the ocean and air temperatures and issued an ominous new forecast: the region would likely experience "an above normal hurricane season" that "could be extremely active," with more named storms than previously expected—14 to 19 this season—and two to five major hurricanes.

Now, halfway through the season, Hurricane Harvey's destruction stretches along the Texas coast, and Hurricane Irma looks likely to make landfall in Florida after causing mass destruction in the Caribbean. Just a few days behind Irma, Hurricane Jose appears to be following the same deadly path, while Hurricane Katia churns off Mexico's eastern coast.

As global temperatures continue to rise, climate scientists have said this is what we should expect—more huge storms, with drastic impacts.

Though scientists are still wrestling with some of the specifics of how climate change is impacting hurricanes, a lot is known, including the fact that hurricane seasons like this one could be the new norm.

6 Questions About Hurricane Irma, Harvey and Climate Change by Sabrina Shankman, InsideClimate News, Sep 6, 2017


Links posted on Facebook

Sun Sep 3, 2017

Mon Sep 4, 2017

Tue Sep 5, 2017

Wed Sep 6, 2017

Thu Sep 7, 2017

Fri Sep 9, 2017

Sat Sep 10, 2017



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2xVUHYv
A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook page during the past week. 

Editor's Pick

6 Questions on Hurricane Irma, Harvey and Climate Change

Hurricane Irma 

Hurricane Irma, a Category 5 storm, barrels toward the Florida coast on Sept. 7, 2017. Credit: NOAA GOES Project via Getty Images

A third of the way into the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA looked at the ocean and air temperatures and issued an ominous new forecast: the region would likely experience "an above normal hurricane season" that "could be extremely active," with more named storms than previously expected—14 to 19 this season—and two to five major hurricanes.

Now, halfway through the season, Hurricane Harvey's destruction stretches along the Texas coast, and Hurricane Irma looks likely to make landfall in Florida after causing mass destruction in the Caribbean. Just a few days behind Irma, Hurricane Jose appears to be following the same deadly path, while Hurricane Katia churns off Mexico's eastern coast.

As global temperatures continue to rise, climate scientists have said this is what we should expect—more huge storms, with drastic impacts.

Though scientists are still wrestling with some of the specifics of how climate change is impacting hurricanes, a lot is known, including the fact that hurricane seasons like this one could be the new norm.

6 Questions About Hurricane Irma, Harvey and Climate Change by Sabrina Shankman, InsideClimate News, Sep 6, 2017


Links posted on Facebook

Sun Sep 3, 2017

Mon Sep 4, 2017

Tue Sep 5, 2017

Wed Sep 6, 2017

Thu Sep 7, 2017

Fri Sep 9, 2017

Sat Sep 10, 2017



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2xVUHYv

What drives Jupiter’s brightest auroras?

Jupiter’s auroras – depicted in this composite image – are by far the strongest in our solar system. Image via NASA/ ESA/ J. Nichols/ Sciencemag.org.

The sun is the ultimate cause of Earth’s brightest auroras – the mysterious and beautiful northern and southern lights – like those seen strongly this past Thursday night. Earthly auroras are generated when storms on the sun release electrons to space, which are then accelerated in our planet’s magnetic field and slam into gas molecules in the upper atmosphere above polar regions. This same process happens on Jupiter, too, but, according to a new analysis, sun-driven auroras aren’t Jupiter’s brightest auroras. In a September 6, 2017 article in Science, Sid Perkins wrote:

Scientists don’t fully understand what’s driving Jupiter’s strongest auroras, but data gathered by the orbiting Juno spacecraft hint that the electrons generating Jupiter’s polar glows may be accelerated by turbulent waves in the planet’s magnetic field — a process somewhat akin to surfers being driven shoreward ahead of breaking ocean waves.

Barry Mauk of the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland led the team that conducted the new analysis. He commented in a NASA statement that understanding Jupiter’s auroras has practical implications for us on Earth:

The highest energies that we are observing within Jupiter’s auroral regions are formidable. These energetic particles that create the auroras are part of the story in understanding Jupiter’s radiation belts, which pose such a challenge to Juno and to upcoming spacecraft missions to Jupiter under development.

Engineering around the debilitating effects of radiation has always been a challenge to spacecraft engineers for missions at Earth and elsewhere in the solar system. What we learn here, and from spacecraft like NASA’s Van Allen Probes and Magnetospheric Multiscale mission (MMS) that are exploring Earth’s magnetosphere, will teach us a lot about space weather and protecting spacecraft and astronauts in harsh space environments.

Animated GIF made from a series of Juno images of Jupiter’s northern aurora. Juno acquired these images around the time of the new study. Images separated by 15 minutes, taken with the Juno Ultraviolet Spectrograph (UVS) in Jupiter’s northern hemisphere. Image via G. Randy Gladstone.

Bottom line: Data from the orbiting Juno spacecraft suggest Jupiter’s strongest auroras may stem from processes in the giant planet’s interior.

Read more from Science/AAAS and from NASA.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2jckbO1

Jupiter’s auroras – depicted in this composite image – are by far the strongest in our solar system. Image via NASA/ ESA/ J. Nichols/ Sciencemag.org.

The sun is the ultimate cause of Earth’s brightest auroras – the mysterious and beautiful northern and southern lights – like those seen strongly this past Thursday night. Earthly auroras are generated when storms on the sun release electrons to space, which are then accelerated in our planet’s magnetic field and slam into gas molecules in the upper atmosphere above polar regions. This same process happens on Jupiter, too, but, according to a new analysis, sun-driven auroras aren’t Jupiter’s brightest auroras. In a September 6, 2017 article in Science, Sid Perkins wrote:

Scientists don’t fully understand what’s driving Jupiter’s strongest auroras, but data gathered by the orbiting Juno spacecraft hint that the electrons generating Jupiter’s polar glows may be accelerated by turbulent waves in the planet’s magnetic field — a process somewhat akin to surfers being driven shoreward ahead of breaking ocean waves.

Barry Mauk of the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland led the team that conducted the new analysis. He commented in a NASA statement that understanding Jupiter’s auroras has practical implications for us on Earth:

The highest energies that we are observing within Jupiter’s auroral regions are formidable. These energetic particles that create the auroras are part of the story in understanding Jupiter’s radiation belts, which pose such a challenge to Juno and to upcoming spacecraft missions to Jupiter under development.

Engineering around the debilitating effects of radiation has always been a challenge to spacecraft engineers for missions at Earth and elsewhere in the solar system. What we learn here, and from spacecraft like NASA’s Van Allen Probes and Magnetospheric Multiscale mission (MMS) that are exploring Earth’s magnetosphere, will teach us a lot about space weather and protecting spacecraft and astronauts in harsh space environments.

Animated GIF made from a series of Juno images of Jupiter’s northern aurora. Juno acquired these images around the time of the new study. Images separated by 15 minutes, taken with the Juno Ultraviolet Spectrograph (UVS) in Jupiter’s northern hemisphere. Image via G. Randy Gladstone.

Bottom line: Data from the orbiting Juno spacecraft suggest Jupiter’s strongest auroras may stem from processes in the giant planet’s interior.

Read more from Science/AAAS and from NASA.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2jckbO1

See Mercury and Regulus below Venus?

This weekend, try to catch Mercury in the morning sky. Mercury is sometimes called the most elusive planet because it always stays near the sun in the sky. Right now, you’ll have the best luck spotting Mercury if you’re in the Northern Hemisphere. Southern Hemisphere observers might see the planet, too, but it’ll be much harder because Mercury will stay lower in the sky before sunrise. Mercury will reach its greatest morning elongation from the sun – its greatest distance from the sun on the sky’s dome – on September 12. At that time, it’ll be 18o west of the sun, or low in the east before sunrise. Mercury is now rising approximately 90 minutes before sunrise at mid-northern latitudes.

Meanwhile, in the Southern Hemisphere, September 2017 doesn’t offer such a good showing of Mercury in the morning sky. You might need binoculars or a telephoto lens to spot Mercury before sunrise, especially at temperate latitudes.

Click here for an almanac telling you Mercury’s rising time in your sky.

Here’s how to find Mercury. Get up shortly before the sun and find an unobstructed horizon in the direction of sunrise. To increase your chances of spotting Mercury, perch atop a balcony or a hill, so that you can see more sky down to the horizon.

Look eastward for Venus, the brightest starlike object in the morning sky. You can’t miss Venus! Then start searching for Mercury below Venus. Given a clear sky at mid-northern latitudes, you might spot Mercury near the sunrise point on the horizon with the eye alone around 80 to 70 minutes before sunrise. If you get up less than one hour before sunrise, you might need binoculars to see Mercury in the encroaching morning twilight.

If you have good eyesight, you might also see Mercury pairing up with the star Regulus. How will you know which is Mercury and which is Regulus? Both will look like “stars,” but only Regulus is a true star. You can tell them apart easily, though, because Mercury will be shining 3 to 4 times more brightly than Regulus. If you see Mercury and not Regulus, try aiming binoculars toward Mercury. You might be able to view Mercury and Regulus in the same binocular field.

After the morning of September 10, the gap between Mercury and Regulus will increase, as Regulus climbs toward Venus in the morning sky.

Mercury will stay lower in the sky, but – here’s the good news – it’ll brighten day by day.

In the meantime, Mars is also now climbing out of the glare of morning twilight and will meet up with Mercury on September 16, 2017.

Bottom line: On the morning of September 10 – and in the few mornings after that – look for the planet Mercury and the star Regulus to couple up together before sunrise. You’ll find them in the east, below bright Venus.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2eMDxo0

This weekend, try to catch Mercury in the morning sky. Mercury is sometimes called the most elusive planet because it always stays near the sun in the sky. Right now, you’ll have the best luck spotting Mercury if you’re in the Northern Hemisphere. Southern Hemisphere observers might see the planet, too, but it’ll be much harder because Mercury will stay lower in the sky before sunrise. Mercury will reach its greatest morning elongation from the sun – its greatest distance from the sun on the sky’s dome – on September 12. At that time, it’ll be 18o west of the sun, or low in the east before sunrise. Mercury is now rising approximately 90 minutes before sunrise at mid-northern latitudes.

Meanwhile, in the Southern Hemisphere, September 2017 doesn’t offer such a good showing of Mercury in the morning sky. You might need binoculars or a telephoto lens to spot Mercury before sunrise, especially at temperate latitudes.

Click here for an almanac telling you Mercury’s rising time in your sky.

Here’s how to find Mercury. Get up shortly before the sun and find an unobstructed horizon in the direction of sunrise. To increase your chances of spotting Mercury, perch atop a balcony or a hill, so that you can see more sky down to the horizon.

Look eastward for Venus, the brightest starlike object in the morning sky. You can’t miss Venus! Then start searching for Mercury below Venus. Given a clear sky at mid-northern latitudes, you might spot Mercury near the sunrise point on the horizon with the eye alone around 80 to 70 minutes before sunrise. If you get up less than one hour before sunrise, you might need binoculars to see Mercury in the encroaching morning twilight.

If you have good eyesight, you might also see Mercury pairing up with the star Regulus. How will you know which is Mercury and which is Regulus? Both will look like “stars,” but only Regulus is a true star. You can tell them apart easily, though, because Mercury will be shining 3 to 4 times more brightly than Regulus. If you see Mercury and not Regulus, try aiming binoculars toward Mercury. You might be able to view Mercury and Regulus in the same binocular field.

After the morning of September 10, the gap between Mercury and Regulus will increase, as Regulus climbs toward Venus in the morning sky.

Mercury will stay lower in the sky, but – here’s the good news – it’ll brighten day by day.

In the meantime, Mars is also now climbing out of the glare of morning twilight and will meet up with Mercury on September 16, 2017.

Bottom line: On the morning of September 10 – and in the few mornings after that – look for the planet Mercury and the star Regulus to couple up together before sunrise. You’ll find them in the east, below bright Venus.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2eMDxo0

News digest – Brexit, viral treatments, alcohol, and… prostate cancer screening?

  • Brexit means… what for science? This week the Government set out its aims for science when the UK leaves the EU in a new report. It was light on detail, but recognised how important funding programmes and a relationship with EU regulatory bodies are. We reported on this one, as did the Independent.
  • Zika virus has been used to treat aggressive brain tumours in mice, reports BBC News. The virus targets glioblastoma cells that have similar properties to the stem cells that the virus attacks, causing serious brain defects in new born babies. Our news report has more details, and check out this blog post to see how we’re also funding research in this area.

  • Viruses injected into tumours could boost immunotherapy treatments. Tumours have evolved mechanisms to evade immune recognition, whereas viruses are well recognised by the immune system. Work done in mice and cells in a dish used viruses to draw the attention of the immune system to the cancer, making an immunotherapy more effective. Check out our news report for more.
  • A handheld device can distinguish between tumour and healthy tissue in early tests, according to BBC News. Scientists at the University of Texas have tested the device on tumour samples in the lab, finding it could identify cancerous tissue in 10 seconds. If it works the same way in patients then it could guide surgeons to help them see if they’ve removed all of a tumour. We also covered this story.
  • Keyhole surgery for oesophageal cancer is as good as more invasive surgery in terms of survival, according to unpublished clinical trial results. We reported that the smaller-scale surgery had better survival and fewer complications than standard ‘open’ surgery.

Number of the week

8

Out of 10 shoppers experience ‘up-selling’ each week

  • Eating plenty of wholegrains cuts your risk of bowel cancer, according to a new report by the World Cancer Research Fund. The Express and Mail Online covered the findings that showed every 90g of wholegrains a day reduces the risk of bowel cancer by 17%. But what’s a wholegrain and how do they help? Find out in our blog post.
  • The obesity crisis is being worsened by promotions that push unhealthy food and larger portions onto shoppers, according to a report. The Royal Society for Public Health poll says that 8 in 10 people experience upselling each week – where upgrades are offered to larger, typically less healthy options. BBC News and the Guardian had this story, and The Scotsman reported that this was backed up by a survey of Scottish shoppers that we carried out.
  • Alcohol increases the risk of 7 types of cancer. But firms who make alcoholic drinks are downplaying these links and misleading the public, according to the Daily Mail and Guardian. A report said that alcohol manufacturers are using ‘denying’ and ‘distraction’ tactics to distort the evidence linking alcohol to cancer.
  • Finding a cancer is hard enough, but predicting whether it’ll cause harm is even harder – not every cancer will. The New Yorker had an excellent feature on the challenges research is facing in this area, and what can be done about it.
  • A targeted drug could help keep some advanced ovarian cancers at bay, according to unpublished clinical trial results. We reported that the drug, a type of PARP inhibitor, exploits genetic weaknesses in cancer cells, and can delay some advanced ovarian cancers from getting worse.
  • And another type of PARP inhibitor, the breast cancer drug olaparib, could also be used to treat prostate cancer, according to Mail Online and the Express. The early stage study adds to the growing evidence that some men with prostate cancer could benefit from these drugs.
  • New unpublished results from the STAMPEDE trial that we fund suggest that men with prostate cancer that has spread who are starting long-term hormone therapy may benefit from either of two additional treatments. You can find our more in our news report.

And finally

  • Across the pond, a new study claiming prostate cancer screening significantly reduces deaths from the disease received a mixed reception from experts. STAT News had a great summary of the reanalysis of two studies, which led to claims that the PSA screening test for prostate cancer could cut deaths from the disease by 20%. The Telegraph said the findings call into question the NHS position that screening causes more harm than good. But they don’t. The new analysis doesn’t acknowledge the problem of overdiagnosis, and a previous gold-standard review of these papers plus others showed prostate cancer screening doesn’t save lives and comes with harms.

Michael



from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://ift.tt/2fahmIY
  • Brexit means… what for science? This week the Government set out its aims for science when the UK leaves the EU in a new report. It was light on detail, but recognised how important funding programmes and a relationship with EU regulatory bodies are. We reported on this one, as did the Independent.
  • Zika virus has been used to treat aggressive brain tumours in mice, reports BBC News. The virus targets glioblastoma cells that have similar properties to the stem cells that the virus attacks, causing serious brain defects in new born babies. Our news report has more details, and check out this blog post to see how we’re also funding research in this area.

  • Viruses injected into tumours could boost immunotherapy treatments. Tumours have evolved mechanisms to evade immune recognition, whereas viruses are well recognised by the immune system. Work done in mice and cells in a dish used viruses to draw the attention of the immune system to the cancer, making an immunotherapy more effective. Check out our news report for more.
  • A handheld device can distinguish between tumour and healthy tissue in early tests, according to BBC News. Scientists at the University of Texas have tested the device on tumour samples in the lab, finding it could identify cancerous tissue in 10 seconds. If it works the same way in patients then it could guide surgeons to help them see if they’ve removed all of a tumour. We also covered this story.
  • Keyhole surgery for oesophageal cancer is as good as more invasive surgery in terms of survival, according to unpublished clinical trial results. We reported that the smaller-scale surgery had better survival and fewer complications than standard ‘open’ surgery.

Number of the week

8

Out of 10 shoppers experience ‘up-selling’ each week

  • Eating plenty of wholegrains cuts your risk of bowel cancer, according to a new report by the World Cancer Research Fund. The Express and Mail Online covered the findings that showed every 90g of wholegrains a day reduces the risk of bowel cancer by 17%. But what’s a wholegrain and how do they help? Find out in our blog post.
  • The obesity crisis is being worsened by promotions that push unhealthy food and larger portions onto shoppers, according to a report. The Royal Society for Public Health poll says that 8 in 10 people experience upselling each week – where upgrades are offered to larger, typically less healthy options. BBC News and the Guardian had this story, and The Scotsman reported that this was backed up by a survey of Scottish shoppers that we carried out.
  • Alcohol increases the risk of 7 types of cancer. But firms who make alcoholic drinks are downplaying these links and misleading the public, according to the Daily Mail and Guardian. A report said that alcohol manufacturers are using ‘denying’ and ‘distraction’ tactics to distort the evidence linking alcohol to cancer.
  • Finding a cancer is hard enough, but predicting whether it’ll cause harm is even harder – not every cancer will. The New Yorker had an excellent feature on the challenges research is facing in this area, and what can be done about it.
  • A targeted drug could help keep some advanced ovarian cancers at bay, according to unpublished clinical trial results. We reported that the drug, a type of PARP inhibitor, exploits genetic weaknesses in cancer cells, and can delay some advanced ovarian cancers from getting worse.
  • And another type of PARP inhibitor, the breast cancer drug olaparib, could also be used to treat prostate cancer, according to Mail Online and the Express. The early stage study adds to the growing evidence that some men with prostate cancer could benefit from these drugs.
  • New unpublished results from the STAMPEDE trial that we fund suggest that men with prostate cancer that has spread who are starting long-term hormone therapy may benefit from either of two additional treatments. You can find our more in our news report.

And finally

  • Across the pond, a new study claiming prostate cancer screening significantly reduces deaths from the disease received a mixed reception from experts. STAT News had a great summary of the reanalysis of two studies, which led to claims that the PSA screening test for prostate cancer could cut deaths from the disease by 20%. The Telegraph said the findings call into question the NHS position that screening causes more harm than good. But they don’t. The new analysis doesn’t acknowledge the problem of overdiagnosis, and a previous gold-standard review of these papers plus others showed prostate cancer screening doesn’t save lives and comes with harms.

Michael



from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://ift.tt/2fahmIY

Study: mild floods are declining, but intense floods are on the rise

It is well known that humans are causing the Earth to warm. We also know that a warmer atmosphere has more water vapor. Just like the air is more humid when it is warm, and less humid when cold. The more humid air leads to more intense precipitation and potentially more flooding. But how much change we will see is an open scientific question.

This question is made complex by the fact that flooding isn’t just about rain. It reflects a dependence on evaporation, rain, the ability of land and water management to handle water surges, and other factors. Fortunately, a very recent study out of Science Advances has helped advance our understanding of the confluence of global warming, intense rain and flooding. 

The authors, Conrad Wasko and Ashish Sharma, from the University of New South Wales investigated various non-urban catchments. These are regions where precipitation drains to a common site. We know that in many places the rainfall is increasing. What these authors wanted to know was whether there was a coincident increase in floods found in these various catchments.

This study isn’t as simple as it might sound. The authors had to make choices about which rainfall event and which temperature peak corresponded to each other and to a potential water flow peak. According to the paper, “precipitation events were identified where the precipitation was separated by five days of zero rainfall.” That is, it had to be dry ahead of time. Streamflow and flooding events were selected as peaks separated by more than seven days. The authors then picked the largest peak from the precipitation and the streamflow observations and matched them to a coincident temperature measurement. 

The tough part is that there can be a delay in temperatures and precipitation. Furthermore, there can be a physical distance between the source of the storm and the location of precipitation. Finally, many times we see flooding without the required five-day dry period. So admittedly this study has real limitations. On the other hand, the authors had to make some choices of selection and these are as good as any others. And, they compensated for these limitations by using extensive rainfall, temperature and streamflow data, data that represented the entire world and allows confident conclusions to be drawn.

What they found was that in most cases there is no direct link. That is, higher temperatures does not generally cause an increase in water flow or flood risk. 

So this begs the question, why not? Why isn’t there a clear direct relationship between the temperature peaks and flooding? Well the authors explain that there is an important role of hydrologic loss (water loss due to evaporation for instance). When the authors separated the results by size of catchment, they found that the importance of these water losses was reduced for smaller catchment areas. They write:

if the catchment or region capturing the precipitation is smaller, but the precipitation event intensity remains the same, the potential for losses is less. In large catchments, the peak streamflow is more likely to be influenced by the catchment wetness conditions preceding the storm event. 

When they broke the analysis into different catchment sizes, the authors found that for extreme rainfalls, the flooding and temperature move together. The authors also broke analysis into different geographical zones and found that their conclusions held true, regardless of the zone location.

As I stated earlier, there are limitations to this study; the authors did a great job discussing those limitations. For instance, they point out it’s possible that human changes to the catchment itself can affect flooding. Urbanization in recent years may have “increased streamflow due to a larger proportion of impermeable surfaces while the development of dams for storage may have had the opposite effect.” They also report that the temperature at which the high water flows are recorded do not necessarily correspond to the temperature of the storm. Evaporation can happen for instance over an ocean, the moisture can be carried hundreds of miles inland, where it falls as rain. But, the fact that their results exclude urban catchments and use data from over 5,000 streamflow and 50,000 rainfall gauges lends credibility to their assertions.

So is this good news or bad news?

Click here to read the rest



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2vSTELE

It is well known that humans are causing the Earth to warm. We also know that a warmer atmosphere has more water vapor. Just like the air is more humid when it is warm, and less humid when cold. The more humid air leads to more intense precipitation and potentially more flooding. But how much change we will see is an open scientific question.

This question is made complex by the fact that flooding isn’t just about rain. It reflects a dependence on evaporation, rain, the ability of land and water management to handle water surges, and other factors. Fortunately, a very recent study out of Science Advances has helped advance our understanding of the confluence of global warming, intense rain and flooding. 

The authors, Conrad Wasko and Ashish Sharma, from the University of New South Wales investigated various non-urban catchments. These are regions where precipitation drains to a common site. We know that in many places the rainfall is increasing. What these authors wanted to know was whether there was a coincident increase in floods found in these various catchments.

This study isn’t as simple as it might sound. The authors had to make choices about which rainfall event and which temperature peak corresponded to each other and to a potential water flow peak. According to the paper, “precipitation events were identified where the precipitation was separated by five days of zero rainfall.” That is, it had to be dry ahead of time. Streamflow and flooding events were selected as peaks separated by more than seven days. The authors then picked the largest peak from the precipitation and the streamflow observations and matched them to a coincident temperature measurement. 

The tough part is that there can be a delay in temperatures and precipitation. Furthermore, there can be a physical distance between the source of the storm and the location of precipitation. Finally, many times we see flooding without the required five-day dry period. So admittedly this study has real limitations. On the other hand, the authors had to make some choices of selection and these are as good as any others. And, they compensated for these limitations by using extensive rainfall, temperature and streamflow data, data that represented the entire world and allows confident conclusions to be drawn.

What they found was that in most cases there is no direct link. That is, higher temperatures does not generally cause an increase in water flow or flood risk. 

So this begs the question, why not? Why isn’t there a clear direct relationship between the temperature peaks and flooding? Well the authors explain that there is an important role of hydrologic loss (water loss due to evaporation for instance). When the authors separated the results by size of catchment, they found that the importance of these water losses was reduced for smaller catchment areas. They write:

if the catchment or region capturing the precipitation is smaller, but the precipitation event intensity remains the same, the potential for losses is less. In large catchments, the peak streamflow is more likely to be influenced by the catchment wetness conditions preceding the storm event. 

When they broke the analysis into different catchment sizes, the authors found that for extreme rainfalls, the flooding and temperature move together. The authors also broke analysis into different geographical zones and found that their conclusions held true, regardless of the zone location.

As I stated earlier, there are limitations to this study; the authors did a great job discussing those limitations. For instance, they point out it’s possible that human changes to the catchment itself can affect flooding. Urbanization in recent years may have “increased streamflow due to a larger proportion of impermeable surfaces while the development of dams for storage may have had the opposite effect.” They also report that the temperature at which the high water flows are recorded do not necessarily correspond to the temperature of the storm. Evaporation can happen for instance over an ocean, the moisture can be carried hundreds of miles inland, where it falls as rain. But, the fact that their results exclude urban catchments and use data from over 5,000 streamflow and 50,000 rainfall gauges lends credibility to their assertions.

So is this good news or bad news?

Click here to read the rest



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2vSTELE

I was an Exxon-funded climate scientist

Katharine Hayhoe, Professor and Director, Climate Science Center, Texas Tech University.  This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

ExxonMobil’s deliberate attempts to sow doubt on the reality and urgency of climate change and their donations to front groups to disseminate false information about climate change have been public knowledge for a long time, now.

Investigative reports in 2015 revealed that Exxon had its own scientists doing its own climate modeling as far back as the 1970s: science and modeling that was not only accurate, but that was being used to plan for the company’s future.

Now, a peer-reviewed study published August 23 has confirmed that what Exxon was saying internally about climate change was quantitatively very different from their public statements. Specifically, researchers Geoffrey Supran and Naomi Oreskes found that at least 80 percent of the internal documents and peer-reviewed publications they studied from between 1977 and 2014 were consistent with the state of the science – acknowledging that climate change is real and caused by humans, and identifying “reasonable uncertainties” that any climate scientist would agree with at the time. Yet over 80 percent of Exxon’s editorial-style paid advertisements over the same period specifically focused on uncertainty and doubt, the study found.

The stark contrast between internally discussing cutting-edge climate research while externally conducting a climate disinformation campaign is enough to blow many minds. What was going on at Exxon?

I have a unique perspective – because I was there.

From 1995 to 1997, Exxon provided partial financial support for my master’s thesis, which focused on methane chemistry and emissions. I spent several weeks in 1996 as an intern at their Annandale research lab in New Jersey and years working on the collaborative research that resulted in three of the published studies referenced in Supran and Oreskes’ new analysis.

Climate research at Exxon

A scientist is a scientist no matter where we work, and my Exxon colleagues were no exception. Thoughtful, cautious and in full agreement with the scientific consensus on climate – these are characteristics any scientist would be proud to own.

Did Exxon have an agenda for our research? Of course – it’s not a charity. Their research and development was targeted, and in my case, it was targeted at something that would raise no red flags in climate policy circles: quantifying the benefits of methane reduction.

Methane is a waste product released by coal mining and natural gas leaks; wastewater treatment plants; farting and belching cows, sheep, goats and anything else that chews its cud; decaying organic trash in garbage dumps; giant termite mounds in Africa; and even, in vanishingly small amounts, our own lactose-intolerant family members.

On a mass basis, methane absorbs about 35 times more of the Earth’s heat than carbon dioxide. Methane has a much shorter lifetime than carbon dioxide gas, and we produce a lot less of it, so there’s no escaping the fact that carbon has to go. But if our concern is how fast the Earth is warming, we can get a big bang for our buck by cutting methane emissions as soon as possible, while continuing to wean ourselves off carbon-based fuels long-term.

For the gas and oil industry, reducing methane emissions means saving energy. So it’s no surprise that, during my research, I didn’t experience any heavy-handed guidance or interference with my results. No one asked to review my code or suggested ways to “adjust” my findings. The only requirement was that a journal article with an Exxon co-author pass an internal review before it could be submitted for peer review, a policy similar to that of many federal agencies.

Did I know what else they were up to at the time? I couldn’t even imagine it.

Fresh out of Canada, I was unaware that there were people who didn’t accept climate science – so unaware, in fact, that it was nearly half a year before I realized I’d married one – let alone that Exxon was funding a disinformation campaign at the very same time it was supporting my research on the most expedient ways to reduce the impact of humans on climate.

Yet Exxon’s choices have contributed directly to the situation we are in today, a situation that in many ways seems unreal: one where many elected representatives oppose climate action, while China leads the U.S. in wind energy, solar power, economic investment in clean energy and even the existence of a national cap and trade policy similar to the ill-fated Waxman-Markey bill of 2009.

Personal decisions

This latest study underscores why many are calling on Exxon to be held responsible for knowingly misleading the public on such a critical issue. For scientists and academics, though, it may fuel another, different, yet similarly moral debate.

Are we willing to accept financial support that is offered as a sop to the public conscience?

The concept of tendering literal payment for sin is nothing new. From the indulgences of the Middle Ages to the criticisms some have leveled at carbon offsets today, we humans have always sought to stave off the consequences of our actions and ease our conscience with good deeds, particularly of the financial kind. Today, many industry groups follow this familiar path: supporting science denial with the left hand, while giving to cutting-edge research and science with the right.

As an academic, how should one consider the sources of funding? Gabe Chmielewski for Mays Communications, CC BY-NC-ND

The Global Climate and Energy Project at Stanford University conducts fundamental research on efficient and clean energy technologies – with Exxon as a founding sponsor. Philanthropist and political donor David Koch gave an unprecedented US$35 million to the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History in 2015, after which three dozen scientists called on the museum to cut ties with him for funding lobbying groups that “misrepresent” climate science. Shell underwrote the London Science Museum’s “Atmosphere” program and then used its leverage to muddy the waters on what scientists know about climate.

It may be easy to point a finger at others, but when it happens to us, the choice might not seem so clear. Which is most important – the benefit of the research and education, or the rejection of tainted funds?

The appropriate response to morally tainted offerings is an ancient question. In the book of Corinthians, the apostle Paul responds to a query on what to do with food that has been sacrificed to idols – eat or reject?

His response illustrates the complexity of this issue. Food is food, he says – and by the same token, we might say money is money today. Both food and money, though, can imply alliance or acceptance. And if it affects others, a more discerning response may be needed.

What are we as academics to do? In this open and transparent new publishing world of ours, declaration of financial supporters is both important and necessary. Some would argue that a funder, however loose and distant the ties, casts a shadow over the resulting research. Others would respond that the funds can be used for good. Which carries the greatest weight?

After two decades in the trenches of climate science, I’m no longer the ingenue I was. I’m all too aware, now, of those who dismiss climate science as a “liberal hoax.” Every day, they attack me on Facebook, vilify me on Twitter and even send the occasional hand-typed letter - which begs appreciation of the artistry, if not the contents. So now, if Exxon came calling, what would I do?

There’s no one right answer to this question. Speaking for myself, I might ask them to give those funds to politicians who endorse sensible climate policy – and cut their funding to those who don’t. Or I admire one colleague’s practical response: to use a Koch-funded honorarium to purchase a lifetime membership in the Sierra Club.

Despite the fact that there’s no easy answer, it’s a question that’s being posed to more and more of us every day, and we cannot straddle the fence any longer. As academics and scientists, we have some tough choices to make; and only by recognizing the broader implications of these choices are we able to make these decisions with our eyes wide open, rather than half shut.



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2vTJY3I

Katharine Hayhoe, Professor and Director, Climate Science Center, Texas Tech University.  This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

ExxonMobil’s deliberate attempts to sow doubt on the reality and urgency of climate change and their donations to front groups to disseminate false information about climate change have been public knowledge for a long time, now.

Investigative reports in 2015 revealed that Exxon had its own scientists doing its own climate modeling as far back as the 1970s: science and modeling that was not only accurate, but that was being used to plan for the company’s future.

Now, a peer-reviewed study published August 23 has confirmed that what Exxon was saying internally about climate change was quantitatively very different from their public statements. Specifically, researchers Geoffrey Supran and Naomi Oreskes found that at least 80 percent of the internal documents and peer-reviewed publications they studied from between 1977 and 2014 were consistent with the state of the science – acknowledging that climate change is real and caused by humans, and identifying “reasonable uncertainties” that any climate scientist would agree with at the time. Yet over 80 percent of Exxon’s editorial-style paid advertisements over the same period specifically focused on uncertainty and doubt, the study found.

The stark contrast between internally discussing cutting-edge climate research while externally conducting a climate disinformation campaign is enough to blow many minds. What was going on at Exxon?

I have a unique perspective – because I was there.

From 1995 to 1997, Exxon provided partial financial support for my master’s thesis, which focused on methane chemistry and emissions. I spent several weeks in 1996 as an intern at their Annandale research lab in New Jersey and years working on the collaborative research that resulted in three of the published studies referenced in Supran and Oreskes’ new analysis.

Climate research at Exxon

A scientist is a scientist no matter where we work, and my Exxon colleagues were no exception. Thoughtful, cautious and in full agreement with the scientific consensus on climate – these are characteristics any scientist would be proud to own.

Did Exxon have an agenda for our research? Of course – it’s not a charity. Their research and development was targeted, and in my case, it was targeted at something that would raise no red flags in climate policy circles: quantifying the benefits of methane reduction.

Methane is a waste product released by coal mining and natural gas leaks; wastewater treatment plants; farting and belching cows, sheep, goats and anything else that chews its cud; decaying organic trash in garbage dumps; giant termite mounds in Africa; and even, in vanishingly small amounts, our own lactose-intolerant family members.

On a mass basis, methane absorbs about 35 times more of the Earth’s heat than carbon dioxide. Methane has a much shorter lifetime than carbon dioxide gas, and we produce a lot less of it, so there’s no escaping the fact that carbon has to go. But if our concern is how fast the Earth is warming, we can get a big bang for our buck by cutting methane emissions as soon as possible, while continuing to wean ourselves off carbon-based fuels long-term.

For the gas and oil industry, reducing methane emissions means saving energy. So it’s no surprise that, during my research, I didn’t experience any heavy-handed guidance or interference with my results. No one asked to review my code or suggested ways to “adjust” my findings. The only requirement was that a journal article with an Exxon co-author pass an internal review before it could be submitted for peer review, a policy similar to that of many federal agencies.

Did I know what else they were up to at the time? I couldn’t even imagine it.

Fresh out of Canada, I was unaware that there were people who didn’t accept climate science – so unaware, in fact, that it was nearly half a year before I realized I’d married one – let alone that Exxon was funding a disinformation campaign at the very same time it was supporting my research on the most expedient ways to reduce the impact of humans on climate.

Yet Exxon’s choices have contributed directly to the situation we are in today, a situation that in many ways seems unreal: one where many elected representatives oppose climate action, while China leads the U.S. in wind energy, solar power, economic investment in clean energy and even the existence of a national cap and trade policy similar to the ill-fated Waxman-Markey bill of 2009.

Personal decisions

This latest study underscores why many are calling on Exxon to be held responsible for knowingly misleading the public on such a critical issue. For scientists and academics, though, it may fuel another, different, yet similarly moral debate.

Are we willing to accept financial support that is offered as a sop to the public conscience?

The concept of tendering literal payment for sin is nothing new. From the indulgences of the Middle Ages to the criticisms some have leveled at carbon offsets today, we humans have always sought to stave off the consequences of our actions and ease our conscience with good deeds, particularly of the financial kind. Today, many industry groups follow this familiar path: supporting science denial with the left hand, while giving to cutting-edge research and science with the right.

As an academic, how should one consider the sources of funding? Gabe Chmielewski for Mays Communications, CC BY-NC-ND

The Global Climate and Energy Project at Stanford University conducts fundamental research on efficient and clean energy technologies – with Exxon as a founding sponsor. Philanthropist and political donor David Koch gave an unprecedented US$35 million to the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History in 2015, after which three dozen scientists called on the museum to cut ties with him for funding lobbying groups that “misrepresent” climate science. Shell underwrote the London Science Museum’s “Atmosphere” program and then used its leverage to muddy the waters on what scientists know about climate.

It may be easy to point a finger at others, but when it happens to us, the choice might not seem so clear. Which is most important – the benefit of the research and education, or the rejection of tainted funds?

The appropriate response to morally tainted offerings is an ancient question. In the book of Corinthians, the apostle Paul responds to a query on what to do with food that has been sacrificed to idols – eat or reject?

His response illustrates the complexity of this issue. Food is food, he says – and by the same token, we might say money is money today. Both food and money, though, can imply alliance or acceptance. And if it affects others, a more discerning response may be needed.

What are we as academics to do? In this open and transparent new publishing world of ours, declaration of financial supporters is both important and necessary. Some would argue that a funder, however loose and distant the ties, casts a shadow over the resulting research. Others would respond that the funds can be used for good. Which carries the greatest weight?

After two decades in the trenches of climate science, I’m no longer the ingenue I was. I’m all too aware, now, of those who dismiss climate science as a “liberal hoax.” Every day, they attack me on Facebook, vilify me on Twitter and even send the occasional hand-typed letter - which begs appreciation of the artistry, if not the contents. So now, if Exxon came calling, what would I do?

There’s no one right answer to this question. Speaking for myself, I might ask them to give those funds to politicians who endorse sensible climate policy – and cut their funding to those who don’t. Or I admire one colleague’s practical response: to use a Koch-funded honorarium to purchase a lifetime membership in the Sierra Club.

Despite the fact that there’s no easy answer, it’s a question that’s being posed to more and more of us every day, and we cannot straddle the fence any longer. As academics and scientists, we have some tough choices to make; and only by recognizing the broader implications of these choices are we able to make these decisions with our eyes wide open, rather than half shut.



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2vTJY3I

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