Tropical disturbance to impact Gulf Coast this week
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave spinning over Florida for possible tropical development. Odds for development have gone up over recent days. As of Tuesday night, the chances for this tropical wave to become at least a tropical depression have increased to 40% within the next two days as well as within the next seven days. The disturbance (now called Invest 93L) is moving to the west. It’s crossing the state of Florida and will emerge into the Gulf as early as Wednesday. From there, development into a tropical depression or storm is possible in the coming days.
Favorable conditions
Invest 93L is moving into the Gulf, where water temperatures are running warmer than average. Tropical cyclones need water temperatures of at least 80° Fahrenheit (27° C) to develop. Current analysis has temperatures in the Gulf ranging from 84° to almost 90° Fahrenheit (29°-32° C)! This is more than enough warm water to fuel a tropical cyclone. In addition to warm water, wind shear is low, which is favorable for tropical development. While there won’t be much time for this tropical wave to organize, if it can stay over the warm waters of the Gulf, it could become a tropical depression. It might even become Tropical Storm Dexter before impacting the northern Gulf Coast, especially Louisiana, later this week.
Read more: NOAA forecast: Atlantic hurricane season above average in 2025
Rain, with or without a name
Regardless of whether this tropical wave fully develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, it will bring impacts in the form of heavy rain to the Gulf Coast as early as Wednesday. Up to four inches of rain are possible along the coast of Florida, while up to six inches are possible for southern Louisiana through the weekend.
Tropical disturbance vs. tropical depression
In order for the National Hurricane Center to determine if a system has become a tropical depression, the disturbance must have a clear center of circulation. They determine this a number of ways. This includes buoy data, wind direction analyzed by satellites, or through a hurricane hunter flight. Once that center of circulation becomes well defined, experts draw a forecast cone showing the movement of the storm, as well as its forecast strength.
Remember: the forecast cone for a tropical cyclone shows the most likely location of where the center of the storm will track. Impacts can, and often are, felt outside the forecast cone. For more information on how to understand the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center, click here.
Occasionally, meteorologists issue a forecast cone for something called a Potential Tropical Cyclone. The National Hurricane Center can choose to draw a forecast cone for a system that is not yet a tropical depression (does not have a clear center of circulation) but could bring tropical storm or hurricane impacts to land within the next two days. This is to make sure everyone in the path of the storm is aware of what is headed their way.
Bottom line: A tropical disturbance, currently labeled Invest 93-L, will bring wind and rain to the Gulf Coast states this week. It has the potential to strengthen into Tropical Storm Dexter.
The post Tropical disturbance to impact Gulf Coast this week first appeared on EarthSky.
from EarthSky https://ift.tt/6Uv8n12
Tropical disturbance to impact Gulf Coast this week
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave spinning over Florida for possible tropical development. Odds for development have gone up over recent days. As of Tuesday night, the chances for this tropical wave to become at least a tropical depression have increased to 40% within the next two days as well as within the next seven days. The disturbance (now called Invest 93L) is moving to the west. It’s crossing the state of Florida and will emerge into the Gulf as early as Wednesday. From there, development into a tropical depression or storm is possible in the coming days.
Favorable conditions
Invest 93L is moving into the Gulf, where water temperatures are running warmer than average. Tropical cyclones need water temperatures of at least 80° Fahrenheit (27° C) to develop. Current analysis has temperatures in the Gulf ranging from 84° to almost 90° Fahrenheit (29°-32° C)! This is more than enough warm water to fuel a tropical cyclone. In addition to warm water, wind shear is low, which is favorable for tropical development. While there won’t be much time for this tropical wave to organize, if it can stay over the warm waters of the Gulf, it could become a tropical depression. It might even become Tropical Storm Dexter before impacting the northern Gulf Coast, especially Louisiana, later this week.
Read more: NOAA forecast: Atlantic hurricane season above average in 2025
Rain, with or without a name
Regardless of whether this tropical wave fully develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, it will bring impacts in the form of heavy rain to the Gulf Coast as early as Wednesday. Up to four inches of rain are possible along the coast of Florida, while up to six inches are possible for southern Louisiana through the weekend.
Tropical disturbance vs. tropical depression
In order for the National Hurricane Center to determine if a system has become a tropical depression, the disturbance must have a clear center of circulation. They determine this a number of ways. This includes buoy data, wind direction analyzed by satellites, or through a hurricane hunter flight. Once that center of circulation becomes well defined, experts draw a forecast cone showing the movement of the storm, as well as its forecast strength.
Remember: the forecast cone for a tropical cyclone shows the most likely location of where the center of the storm will track. Impacts can, and often are, felt outside the forecast cone. For more information on how to understand the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center, click here.
Occasionally, meteorologists issue a forecast cone for something called a Potential Tropical Cyclone. The National Hurricane Center can choose to draw a forecast cone for a system that is not yet a tropical depression (does not have a clear center of circulation) but could bring tropical storm or hurricane impacts to land within the next two days. This is to make sure everyone in the path of the storm is aware of what is headed their way.
Bottom line: A tropical disturbance, currently labeled Invest 93-L, will bring wind and rain to the Gulf Coast states this week. It has the potential to strengthen into Tropical Storm Dexter.
The post Tropical disturbance to impact Gulf Coast this week first appeared on EarthSky.
from EarthSky https://ift.tt/6Uv8n12
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