Tornado outbreak expected in Deep South Friday


Tornado outbreak: Map showing red circle over Louisiana and Mississippi with lighter colors farther away.
The National Weather Service shared this map of areas at risk of severe weather for Friday, March 24, 2023. The greatest concern for a tornado outbreak is in the red area, though the whole region should be alert. Image via NWS.

The National Weather Service forecast a new storm system to bring tornadoes, severe thunderstorms and flooding to the Deep South on Friday, March 24, 2023. Louisiana and Mississippi are in the bullseye for the most intense storms and tornadoes. However, strong storms are expected over a broad region from Texas to Kentucky, bringing damaging winds and a broader risk for brief tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a moderate level 4/5 risk for Friday afternoon and evening. The forecast calls for storms to begin near the Texas/Louisiana border in the early afternoon and move east through the day. Numerous supercell thunderstorms could occur. The storms will intensify through the evening as mid-level winds strengthen and encourage storm organization. Tornadoes are the primary threat, but expect wind and hail too throughout the moderate risk area.

Last chance to get a moon phase calendar! Only a few left. On sale now.

Map of American south with storms on simulated radar over Louisiana stretching north past Memphis.
The storm forecast for Louisiana, Mississippi and surroundings, from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. Image via NWS.

Tornado outbreak possible

Friday’s storm forecast is a “tornado driven” threat. The SPC says that there is a 15% chance of a tornado within 50 miles (80 km) of a point within the moderate risk area. Any tornado that touches down also has the potential to do significant (EF2+ on the Enhanced Fujita Scale) damage with winds exceeding 110 mph (180 km/hr). Many experts are calling for a tornado outbreak during the evening hours.

The exact nature and intensity of the storms through Friday afternoon are dependent on a few subtle meteorological factors. Despite the high confidence in dangerous storms, meteorologists are still resolving exact forecast details.

The greatest tornado risk will accompany any supercells that can form far enough ahead of the cold front to maintain a discrete storm mode. This will allow the storms to strengthen into mature, rotating supercells with the highest chance of producing damaging severe weather. If storm development favors a more “linear” mode, then the tornado threat will be reduced. Linear storms will favor a greater risk for damaging straight-line winds.

Heavy rainfall and flooding

Flooding is also likely on Friday evening as heavy rain follows the storm threat. The Weather Prediction Center also issued a moderate risk (level 4/5) for flooding rainfall in the Ohio River Valley. Widespread rainfall of three to six inches (8-15 cm) is likely, with locally higher amounts in a few areas. This region has experienced plenty of rainfall over the past few weeks, so any heavy thunderstorm rain will quickly saturate the soil and runoff for local flash flooding risks. Rivers and streams will also rise in the coming days, leading to flooding concerns for floodplain areas along the Ohio River downstream of the heaviest rainfall.

Active recent weather

This system follows weeks of powerful storms on the West Coast and an active early severe weather season. The same system that is expected to produce tornadoes in the Deep South also produced a rare tornado in the Los Angeles area on Wednesday, March 22. The EF-1 tornado in Montebello, California, was one of only two confirmed tornadoes in Los Angeles county since 2010.

Bottom line: A tornado outbreak is possible in the Deep South on Friday, March 24, 2023. Residents should be alert for changing conditions and have a plan in advance of the storms.

Read more: Tornado Alley is shifting toward Dixie

The post Tornado outbreak expected in Deep South Friday first appeared on EarthSky.



from EarthSky https://ift.tt/wbH1hSk
Tornado outbreak: Map showing red circle over Louisiana and Mississippi with lighter colors farther away.
The National Weather Service shared this map of areas at risk of severe weather for Friday, March 24, 2023. The greatest concern for a tornado outbreak is in the red area, though the whole region should be alert. Image via NWS.

The National Weather Service forecast a new storm system to bring tornadoes, severe thunderstorms and flooding to the Deep South on Friday, March 24, 2023. Louisiana and Mississippi are in the bullseye for the most intense storms and tornadoes. However, strong storms are expected over a broad region from Texas to Kentucky, bringing damaging winds and a broader risk for brief tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a moderate level 4/5 risk for Friday afternoon and evening. The forecast calls for storms to begin near the Texas/Louisiana border in the early afternoon and move east through the day. Numerous supercell thunderstorms could occur. The storms will intensify through the evening as mid-level winds strengthen and encourage storm organization. Tornadoes are the primary threat, but expect wind and hail too throughout the moderate risk area.

Last chance to get a moon phase calendar! Only a few left. On sale now.

Map of American south with storms on simulated radar over Louisiana stretching north past Memphis.
The storm forecast for Louisiana, Mississippi and surroundings, from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. Image via NWS.

Tornado outbreak possible

Friday’s storm forecast is a “tornado driven” threat. The SPC says that there is a 15% chance of a tornado within 50 miles (80 km) of a point within the moderate risk area. Any tornado that touches down also has the potential to do significant (EF2+ on the Enhanced Fujita Scale) damage with winds exceeding 110 mph (180 km/hr). Many experts are calling for a tornado outbreak during the evening hours.

The exact nature and intensity of the storms through Friday afternoon are dependent on a few subtle meteorological factors. Despite the high confidence in dangerous storms, meteorologists are still resolving exact forecast details.

The greatest tornado risk will accompany any supercells that can form far enough ahead of the cold front to maintain a discrete storm mode. This will allow the storms to strengthen into mature, rotating supercells with the highest chance of producing damaging severe weather. If storm development favors a more “linear” mode, then the tornado threat will be reduced. Linear storms will favor a greater risk for damaging straight-line winds.

Heavy rainfall and flooding

Flooding is also likely on Friday evening as heavy rain follows the storm threat. The Weather Prediction Center also issued a moderate risk (level 4/5) for flooding rainfall in the Ohio River Valley. Widespread rainfall of three to six inches (8-15 cm) is likely, with locally higher amounts in a few areas. This region has experienced plenty of rainfall over the past few weeks, so any heavy thunderstorm rain will quickly saturate the soil and runoff for local flash flooding risks. Rivers and streams will also rise in the coming days, leading to flooding concerns for floodplain areas along the Ohio River downstream of the heaviest rainfall.

Active recent weather

This system follows weeks of powerful storms on the West Coast and an active early severe weather season. The same system that is expected to produce tornadoes in the Deep South also produced a rare tornado in the Los Angeles area on Wednesday, March 22. The EF-1 tornado in Montebello, California, was one of only two confirmed tornadoes in Los Angeles county since 2010.

Bottom line: A tornado outbreak is possible in the Deep South on Friday, March 24, 2023. Residents should be alert for changing conditions and have a plan in advance of the storms.

Read more: Tornado Alley is shifting toward Dixie

The post Tornado outbreak expected in Deep South Friday first appeared on EarthSky.



from EarthSky https://ift.tt/wbH1hSk
Libellés :

Aucun commentaire:

Enregistrer un commentaire

Inscription à : Publier les commentaires (Atom)