The sea ice post! [Stoat]

People have been asking for the sea ice post, so here it is. I’ve been putting it off, obviously. The $10k bet comes due this year but its looking like a bad year; and secondly I don’t really have all that much to say. Just to remind you, the terms are

If both NSIDC and IARC-JAXA September 2016 monthly average sea ice extent report are above 4.80 million km^2, RD pays WMC US$ 10,000. If both are below 3.10 million km^2, WMC pays RD US$ 10,000. In all other cases the bet is null and void.

You should also read the argument that Rob presented in that post. That bet was arranged in 2011. 5 years is not long for climatological changes, unless they’re huge, and the bet was a compromise. Now, let’s look at the current ice:

That’s from http://ift.tt/1GjDMfL. That’s still at an all-time low for the time of year, but only just, which is better than its been for the last few months. And of course its been, globally, ridiculously hot for the first few months of this year – even if its been a cold spring in the UK. The other thing to remember is that winter or early spring isn’t a terribly good predictor of summer minimum. Nonetheless I find it hard to believe, at this moment, that I’m likely to win – ice going below 4.8 seems really rather likely – so the question becomes whether I’m likely to lose, which in a sense is a moral victory for Rob already.

This is a good point to mention that Rob and I were betting with each other because the blowhard nutters wouldn’t put up. In his case, the denialists (and I had a go, too); in my case, people like Wadhams who is still predicting essentially no Arctic sea ice this year. Or possibly next year. At any rate, real soon now, for reason that are never very clearly explained.

Note: I’m completely hopeless at remembering where I had, so forgive me if I’ve forgotten some stuff. CR threw in the towel last year, so I’m clear with him.

from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1UP8gMf

People have been asking for the sea ice post, so here it is. I’ve been putting it off, obviously. The $10k bet comes due this year but its looking like a bad year; and secondly I don’t really have all that much to say. Just to remind you, the terms are

If both NSIDC and IARC-JAXA September 2016 monthly average sea ice extent report are above 4.80 million km^2, RD pays WMC US$ 10,000. If both are below 3.10 million km^2, WMC pays RD US$ 10,000. In all other cases the bet is null and void.

You should also read the argument that Rob presented in that post. That bet was arranged in 2011. 5 years is not long for climatological changes, unless they’re huge, and the bet was a compromise. Now, let’s look at the current ice:

That’s from http://ift.tt/1GjDMfL. That’s still at an all-time low for the time of year, but only just, which is better than its been for the last few months. And of course its been, globally, ridiculously hot for the first few months of this year – even if its been a cold spring in the UK. The other thing to remember is that winter or early spring isn’t a terribly good predictor of summer minimum. Nonetheless I find it hard to believe, at this moment, that I’m likely to win – ice going below 4.8 seems really rather likely – so the question becomes whether I’m likely to lose, which in a sense is a moral victory for Rob already.

This is a good point to mention that Rob and I were betting with each other because the blowhard nutters wouldn’t put up. In his case, the denialists (and I had a go, too); in my case, people like Wadhams who is still predicting essentially no Arctic sea ice this year. Or possibly next year. At any rate, real soon now, for reason that are never very clearly explained.

Note: I’m completely hopeless at remembering where I had, so forgive me if I’ve forgotten some stuff. CR threw in the towel last year, so I’m clear with him.

from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1UP8gMf