
- Is humanity the extraordinary result of improbable events? If so, does it mean that other intelligent life in the universe might be rare?
- Humanity might be the natural probable outcome of evolution on Earth, new research suggests. This challenges the existing theory that human life was simply a matter of luck.
- This also increases the probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe.
The ‘hard steps’ theory of human evolution and intelligent life
Was the evolution of humanity a fluke? Previous studies have suggested the human species was the result of a series of improbable events, making us a unique and rare product of planetary evolution. But now scientists in the U.S. and Germany have proposed a new model for the origin of humanity. They said on February 14, 2025, that the long-accepted “hard steps” theory might be inaccurate. Instead of improbable, humanity might be the natural evolutionary outcome on Earth. If so, this has bold implications for the evolution of analogous intelligent life on other planets in the universe as well.
The researchers published their peer-reviewed findings in Science Advances on February 14.
Is humanity extraordinary?
Scientists have long thought humanity is the result of a series of improbable events over billions of years of evolution. Indeed, our overall intelligence, sciences, arts, technological achievements, etc. set us apart from the rest of the animal kingdom.
The “hard steps” theory says that humanity evolved the way it did due to many unlikely events. This makes us extraordinary. But is that the real story? The new study doesn’t dispute the fact that humanity evolved over millions of years. But it challenges the idea that humanity is overtly unique.
Physicist Brandon Carter developed the “hard-steps” theory in 1983. It stated that due to how long it took humans to evolve – relative to the age of the sun – the chances of human-like intelligent lifeforms arising on other planets were low.
Evolution of humanity and intelligent life not so improbable after all?
The researchers state that humanity might be the natural evolutionary outcome for Earth. And that evolutionary processes might be similar on other planets where intelligent life evolves. Daniel Brady Mills is the lead author of the paper, at The University of Munich in Germany. He said:
We’re arguing that intelligent life may not require a series of lucky breaks to exist. Humans didn’t evolve ‘early’ or ‘late’ in Earth’s history, but ‘on time,’ when the conditions were in place. Perhaps it’s only a matter of time, and maybe other planets are able to achieve these conditions more rapidly than Earth did, while other planets might take even longer.
Luck and chance might not have had as much to do with human evolution as first thought. Co-author Jennifer Macalady at Penn State said:
This is a significant shift in how we think about the history of life. It suggests that the evolution of complex life may be less about luck and more about the interplay between life and its environment, opening up exciting new avenues of research in our quest to understand our origins and our place in the universe.
The "hard-steps" model argues that human-like life was unlikely to evolve on Earth and is vanishingly rare in the Universe. Here, in our new Science Advances article, we challenge its foundational logic: https://ift.tt/Nadxurh…
— Daniel Brady Mills (@danbmills.bsky.social) 2025-02-14T19:28:43.735Z
A permissive global environment
The new study theorizes that the evolution of humans became possible when the global environment reached a permissive state. Complex lifeforms like humans require oxygen. So when photosynthesizing microbes and bacteria created enough oxygen in the atmosphere, conditions were suitable for more complex life to evolve. In other words, it was simply a natural progression instead of a fluke.
This is part of what the researchers call windows of opportunity. Other factors included nutrient availability, sea surface temperature and ocean salinity. The researchers realized that Earth became suitable for complex life such as humans only recently in its overall history. Again, just a natural progression of events.
Evolving intelligent life took billions of years ? but it may not have been as unlikely as many scientists predictedtheconversation.com/evolving-int…
— Jenn Macalady (@jmacalad.bsky.social) 2025-02-16T01:59:09.805Z
Earth’s geological timescale as a tool
The study basically reverses the basis of the old “hard steps” theory. It uses the geological timescale of the Earth instead of the lifespan of the sun. As co-author Jason Wright at Penn State explained:
We’re taking the view that rather than base our predictions on the lifespan of the sun, we should use a geological time scale, because that’s how long it takes for the atmosphere and landscape to change. These are normal timescales on the Earth. If life evolves with the planet, then it will evolve on a planetary time scale at a planetary pace.
This new perspective suggests that the emergence of intelligent life might not be such a long-shot after all. Instead of a series of improbable events, evolution may be more of a predictable process, unfolding as global conditions allow. Our framework applies not only to Earth, but also other planets, increasing the possibility that life similar to ours could exist elsewhere.
A multi-disciplinary approach
One of the big strengths of the new theory is that it is a collaboration of various scientific disciplines. The “hard-steps” model was based in astrophysics. But the new paper takes a different approach. Both physicists and geobiologists are involved. Macalady said:
This paper is the most generous act of interdisciplinary work. Our fields were far apart, and we put them on the same page to get at this question of how we got here and are we alone? There was a gulf, and we built a bridge.
You can also read good overview of the new theory by Mills, Wright and Macalady in The Conversation (February 14, 2025).
Bottom line: Was the rise of humanity simply a matter of luck? A new theory says no, that we – and perhaps other intelligent life – are the probable outcome of evolution.
Source: A reassessment of the “hard-steps” model for the evolution of intelligent life
Read more: Estimating the odds for intelligent life in the multiverse
Read more: Alien technology might signal extraterrestrial life
The post A bold new theory of intelligent life and origin of humanity first appeared on EarthSky.
from EarthSky https://ift.tt/GE4hqXi

- Is humanity the extraordinary result of improbable events? If so, does it mean that other intelligent life in the universe might be rare?
- Humanity might be the natural probable outcome of evolution on Earth, new research suggests. This challenges the existing theory that human life was simply a matter of luck.
- This also increases the probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe.
The ‘hard steps’ theory of human evolution and intelligent life
Was the evolution of humanity a fluke? Previous studies have suggested the human species was the result of a series of improbable events, making us a unique and rare product of planetary evolution. But now scientists in the U.S. and Germany have proposed a new model for the origin of humanity. They said on February 14, 2025, that the long-accepted “hard steps” theory might be inaccurate. Instead of improbable, humanity might be the natural evolutionary outcome on Earth. If so, this has bold implications for the evolution of analogous intelligent life on other planets in the universe as well.
The researchers published their peer-reviewed findings in Science Advances on February 14.
Is humanity extraordinary?
Scientists have long thought humanity is the result of a series of improbable events over billions of years of evolution. Indeed, our overall intelligence, sciences, arts, technological achievements, etc. set us apart from the rest of the animal kingdom.
The “hard steps” theory says that humanity evolved the way it did due to many unlikely events. This makes us extraordinary. But is that the real story? The new study doesn’t dispute the fact that humanity evolved over millions of years. But it challenges the idea that humanity is overtly unique.
Physicist Brandon Carter developed the “hard-steps” theory in 1983. It stated that due to how long it took humans to evolve – relative to the age of the sun – the chances of human-like intelligent lifeforms arising on other planets were low.
Evolution of humanity and intelligent life not so improbable after all?
The researchers state that humanity might be the natural evolutionary outcome for Earth. And that evolutionary processes might be similar on other planets where intelligent life evolves. Daniel Brady Mills is the lead author of the paper, at The University of Munich in Germany. He said:
We’re arguing that intelligent life may not require a series of lucky breaks to exist. Humans didn’t evolve ‘early’ or ‘late’ in Earth’s history, but ‘on time,’ when the conditions were in place. Perhaps it’s only a matter of time, and maybe other planets are able to achieve these conditions more rapidly than Earth did, while other planets might take even longer.
Luck and chance might not have had as much to do with human evolution as first thought. Co-author Jennifer Macalady at Penn State said:
This is a significant shift in how we think about the history of life. It suggests that the evolution of complex life may be less about luck and more about the interplay between life and its environment, opening up exciting new avenues of research in our quest to understand our origins and our place in the universe.
The "hard-steps" model argues that human-like life was unlikely to evolve on Earth and is vanishingly rare in the Universe. Here, in our new Science Advances article, we challenge its foundational logic: https://ift.tt/Nadxurh…
— Daniel Brady Mills (@danbmills.bsky.social) 2025-02-14T19:28:43.735Z
A permissive global environment
The new study theorizes that the evolution of humans became possible when the global environment reached a permissive state. Complex lifeforms like humans require oxygen. So when photosynthesizing microbes and bacteria created enough oxygen in the atmosphere, conditions were suitable for more complex life to evolve. In other words, it was simply a natural progression instead of a fluke.
This is part of what the researchers call windows of opportunity. Other factors included nutrient availability, sea surface temperature and ocean salinity. The researchers realized that Earth became suitable for complex life such as humans only recently in its overall history. Again, just a natural progression of events.
Evolving intelligent life took billions of years ? but it may not have been as unlikely as many scientists predictedtheconversation.com/evolving-int…
— Jenn Macalady (@jmacalad.bsky.social) 2025-02-16T01:59:09.805Z
Earth’s geological timescale as a tool
The study basically reverses the basis of the old “hard steps” theory. It uses the geological timescale of the Earth instead of the lifespan of the sun. As co-author Jason Wright at Penn State explained:
We’re taking the view that rather than base our predictions on the lifespan of the sun, we should use a geological time scale, because that’s how long it takes for the atmosphere and landscape to change. These are normal timescales on the Earth. If life evolves with the planet, then it will evolve on a planetary time scale at a planetary pace.
This new perspective suggests that the emergence of intelligent life might not be such a long-shot after all. Instead of a series of improbable events, evolution may be more of a predictable process, unfolding as global conditions allow. Our framework applies not only to Earth, but also other planets, increasing the possibility that life similar to ours could exist elsewhere.
A multi-disciplinary approach
One of the big strengths of the new theory is that it is a collaboration of various scientific disciplines. The “hard-steps” model was based in astrophysics. But the new paper takes a different approach. Both physicists and geobiologists are involved. Macalady said:
This paper is the most generous act of interdisciplinary work. Our fields were far apart, and we put them on the same page to get at this question of how we got here and are we alone? There was a gulf, and we built a bridge.
You can also read good overview of the new theory by Mills, Wright and Macalady in The Conversation (February 14, 2025).
Bottom line: Was the rise of humanity simply a matter of luck? A new theory says no, that we – and perhaps other intelligent life – are the probable outcome of evolution.
Source: A reassessment of the “hard-steps” model for the evolution of intelligent life
Read more: Estimating the odds for intelligent life in the multiverse
Read more: Alien technology might signal extraterrestrial life
The post A bold new theory of intelligent life and origin of humanity first appeared on EarthSky.
from EarthSky https://ift.tt/GE4hqXi