ASCO 2019 cancer news: Day 1 – the annual blood test debate

blood samples

The world’s cancer specialists have landed in Chicago again to meet, discuss and share the latest in cancer prevention, diagnosis and treatment. Close to 40,000 doctors and experts are gathering for the American Society for Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting, the largest cancer conference in the world.

The research on show makes headlines. Lots of them. And this media coverage comes with several notes of caution. Most of the results being shared at the conference are a preliminary look at ongoing clinical trials, and in some cases those trials are at an early stage. The researchers are also tasked with delivering these updates in incredibly short talks. This, combined with the media’s hunt for a good story, means that details can sometimes be missed, confusingly presented or the scale and stage of a study not always made clear.

So, to help you judge the media stories for yourself, we’ve written this 6-point cheat sheet on what to look out for.

We’ll also be sharing a daily update of the latest headlines, and you can follow along with the conference on Twitter using #ASCO19.

Day 1 – Friday 31 May

Blood test next steps

Each year there are column inches dedicated to discussing whether now is the time that a ‘simple blood test’ for cancer has appeared on the scientific horizon. Day one of ASCO 2019 proved that this year is no exception. And, much like last year, the conclusion remains that there’s still a long way to go.

One company that many have their eye on, called GRAIL, released a glimpse of new, unpublished data ahead of a few of its conference presentations that was picked up by the media. Their goal is to develop a blood test for 12 types of cancer that can also say where in the body the cancer is growing. And there are 2 main takeaways from the latest data, which come from pilot studies of the test in 1,422 people known to have cancer and 879 who have not been diagnosed:

  1. So far, the experimental test can detect cancers with varying degrees of success across the 12 types – and the sensitivity ranged from detecting 34% of stage 1 cancers to 84% of stage 3, which could prove important if this is to become a test to detect cancers early.
  2. Of the cancers the test detected, it also correctly flagged where in the body the cancer had originally started growing in 9 in 10 cases.

GRAIL says these latest results show how they’re reaching a point where a balance can be struck between the test being sensitive enough to detect most cancers while minimising the chance that it suggests someone has cancer when they don’t. Trials with large numbers of people will be needed before it’s clear if that’s the case, and the company is already planning those. But there is a long way to go.

STAT News had an in-depth piece on the results if you have a subscription, as did Fierce Biotech.

Nick Peel, from the ASCO Annual Meeting in Chicago.



from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://bit.ly/2KpubzJ
blood samples

The world’s cancer specialists have landed in Chicago again to meet, discuss and share the latest in cancer prevention, diagnosis and treatment. Close to 40,000 doctors and experts are gathering for the American Society for Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting, the largest cancer conference in the world.

The research on show makes headlines. Lots of them. And this media coverage comes with several notes of caution. Most of the results being shared at the conference are a preliminary look at ongoing clinical trials, and in some cases those trials are at an early stage. The researchers are also tasked with delivering these updates in incredibly short talks. This, combined with the media’s hunt for a good story, means that details can sometimes be missed, confusingly presented or the scale and stage of a study not always made clear.

So, to help you judge the media stories for yourself, we’ve written this 6-point cheat sheet on what to look out for.

We’ll also be sharing a daily update of the latest headlines, and you can follow along with the conference on Twitter using #ASCO19.

Day 1 – Friday 31 May

Blood test next steps

Each year there are column inches dedicated to discussing whether now is the time that a ‘simple blood test’ for cancer has appeared on the scientific horizon. Day one of ASCO 2019 proved that this year is no exception. And, much like last year, the conclusion remains that there’s still a long way to go.

One company that many have their eye on, called GRAIL, released a glimpse of new, unpublished data ahead of a few of its conference presentations that was picked up by the media. Their goal is to develop a blood test for 12 types of cancer that can also say where in the body the cancer is growing. And there are 2 main takeaways from the latest data, which come from pilot studies of the test in 1,422 people known to have cancer and 879 who have not been diagnosed:

  1. So far, the experimental test can detect cancers with varying degrees of success across the 12 types – and the sensitivity ranged from detecting 34% of stage 1 cancers to 84% of stage 3, which could prove important if this is to become a test to detect cancers early.
  2. Of the cancers the test detected, it also correctly flagged where in the body the cancer had originally started growing in 9 in 10 cases.

GRAIL says these latest results show how they’re reaching a point where a balance can be struck between the test being sensitive enough to detect most cancers while minimising the chance that it suggests someone has cancer when they don’t. Trials with large numbers of people will be needed before it’s clear if that’s the case, and the company is already planning those. But there is a long way to go.

STAT News had an in-depth piece on the results if you have a subscription, as did Fierce Biotech.

Nick Peel, from the ASCO Annual Meeting in Chicago.



from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://bit.ly/2KpubzJ

Tornado near Edmond, Oklahoma

A large, backlit tornado moving across the Oklahoma prairie.

Tom Smetana (@twstdbro on Twitter) captured this image near Edmond, Oklahoma on May 17, 2019. For tornado updates, also follow Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu on Twitter).

Read more from The Atlantic: The Hybrid System That Spots Tornadoes



from EarthSky http://bit.ly/2MmAg2f
A large, backlit tornado moving across the Oklahoma prairie.

Tom Smetana (@twstdbro on Twitter) captured this image near Edmond, Oklahoma on May 17, 2019. For tornado updates, also follow Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu on Twitter).

Read more from The Atlantic: The Hybrid System That Spots Tornadoes



from EarthSky http://bit.ly/2MmAg2f

Lung cancer deaths in women are increasing globally. It’s a hidden but preventable epidemic

The use of tobacco products, like smoking cigarettes, is the leading preventable cause of cancer worldwide. And lung cancer is still a leading cause of global deaths.

But while the number of men dying from lung cancer is starting to fall, recent figures suggest that the number of women dying from the disease around the world is still increasing.

Today, like every May 31st since 1987, is World No Tobacco Day. And this year’s theme of lung health and tobacco makes it all the more relevant to try and unpick this trend.

Big Tobacco’s marketing tactics increase tobacco sales to women

It’s hard to pinpoint one reason to explain this shift, though tobacco industry tactics such as the marketing of tobacco products, can partly explain this rise in female lung cancer deaths. This includes marketing products in a way that will appeal directly to women, making smoking seem like a glamorous and empowering habit. These tactics can’t be used in the UK as, like many other countries, the Government has prohibited virtually all tobacco advertising. However, there are many countries including China, the Philippines and India, where this is still not the case.

Before we can start to explain why we are we seeing more women dying from lung cancer we need to think about what is meant by ‘gender’.

Professor Sarah Hawkes of the Institute of Global Health at the University College London, and Global Health 50/50, is an expert on gender and health. She says gender, unlike sex, is what society makes you into. “It’s malleable and flexible and throughout our lives we are surrounded by situations and drivers that will change how we identify and express our own gender”.

And gender is a key driver behind smoking.

“No one” she says, “understands this better than commercial industries.”

Professor Hawkes has spent much of her career researching the impact of gender on health. Her research on tobacco has highlighted how profoundly the two factors can influence one another.

According to Hawkes, women are a prime target for the tobacco industry for two major reasons.

The tobacco industry are masters of understanding how to manipulate gender norms to increase their profits.

– Professor Hawkes, Institute of Global Health UCL

Firstly, 80% of the world’s smokers live in low-and-middle income countries. And some of these countries are experiencing economic growth, meaning more women are able to afford tobacco.

And in countries experiencing economic growth, more women are moving from rural parts of the countries into cities, where smoking is more common. “Educated women in urban Mumbai (India) for example, are more likely to be smokers than young women in rural Maharashtra,” she says. These factors lead to an uptake in tobacco use.

Second, the industry understands and takes advantage of changing gender roles. Just like industries who capitalised on societally-defined differences between men and women, including the marketing of ‘girls’ and ‘boys’ toys, the tobacco industry has used a series of tactics to take advantage of the way countries define gender to drive sales of its products. For example, by creating female branded packs that promote attributes such as slimness, glamour and attractiveness.

But they’ve not stopped there. The tobacco industry has also designed products to appeal to women at different stages of their life and fostered the false idea that tobacco is linked to empowerment.

Cigarette brands for younger women emphasise confidence, freedom and independence, while those marketed towards older women drew on themes of relaxation and escape from daily stresses.

Who societies think ‘should’ or ‘shouldn’t’ smoke has also been influenced by the tobacco industry. “You might believe that [smoking] is a symbol of independence, because a commercial company is telling you this story. Particularly if you live in a country where in your grandparents’ generation men were the only ones allowed to smoke,” says Hawkes.

It’s not just smoking

It’s not just women starting to smoke that’s behind this trend. 64% of those who die from exposure to second-hand smoke are women.

Women have the highest exposure to second hand smoke at home and in the work place. This is often a result of their limited ability to negotiate against their domestic roles, unequal power relationships and restricted living circumstances.

With more women dying from lung cancer than ever before, we need to better understand the links between gender and health.

How can we buck the trend?

“We need to join the dots,” says Professor Hawkes, making a plea to policy makers that it’s time to understand how complex the determinants of ill-health are.

It’s not a coincidence that more women are dying from lung cancer.

The tobacco industry understands that factors like gender can have a significant influence on how people use or are exposed to tobacco. So we need to make efforts to understand this too.

And if we incorporate an understanding of factors like gender into tobacco control programmes, we could help to prevent women and children’s exposure to second hand smoke.

Take Australia and Canada for example. They’ve helped to reduce the risk of second hand smoke by taking into consideration what it means to be a good father in their country and playing on that perception.

But innovative initiatives like this are few and far between, as Professor Hawkes explains. “I’ve spent a lot of time collecting evidence on the impact of gender on health then wondering why this evidence wasn’t making it into policy change”.

We are seeing more governments enforce policies such as bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsporship. But we need to see more of this in countries where the tobacco industry increasingly operates.

“The tobacco industry are masters of understanding how to manipulate gender norms to increase their profits” Professor Hawkes explains.

The onus is on us to be just as good at understanding how factors like gender are causing the global smoking epidemic to spread. And to help us stop it.

Priscilla Tiigah is a Policy and Research Advisor at Cancer Researck UK

Read more about the International Cancer Prevention Programme at Cancer Research UK



from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://bit.ly/2WGwll2

The use of tobacco products, like smoking cigarettes, is the leading preventable cause of cancer worldwide. And lung cancer is still a leading cause of global deaths.

But while the number of men dying from lung cancer is starting to fall, recent figures suggest that the number of women dying from the disease around the world is still increasing.

Today, like every May 31st since 1987, is World No Tobacco Day. And this year’s theme of lung health and tobacco makes it all the more relevant to try and unpick this trend.

Big Tobacco’s marketing tactics increase tobacco sales to women

It’s hard to pinpoint one reason to explain this shift, though tobacco industry tactics such as the marketing of tobacco products, can partly explain this rise in female lung cancer deaths. This includes marketing products in a way that will appeal directly to women, making smoking seem like a glamorous and empowering habit. These tactics can’t be used in the UK as, like many other countries, the Government has prohibited virtually all tobacco advertising. However, there are many countries including China, the Philippines and India, where this is still not the case.

Before we can start to explain why we are we seeing more women dying from lung cancer we need to think about what is meant by ‘gender’.

Professor Sarah Hawkes of the Institute of Global Health at the University College London, and Global Health 50/50, is an expert on gender and health. She says gender, unlike sex, is what society makes you into. “It’s malleable and flexible and throughout our lives we are surrounded by situations and drivers that will change how we identify and express our own gender”.

And gender is a key driver behind smoking.

“No one” she says, “understands this better than commercial industries.”

Professor Hawkes has spent much of her career researching the impact of gender on health. Her research on tobacco has highlighted how profoundly the two factors can influence one another.

According to Hawkes, women are a prime target for the tobacco industry for two major reasons.

The tobacco industry are masters of understanding how to manipulate gender norms to increase their profits.

– Professor Hawkes, Institute of Global Health UCL

Firstly, 80% of the world’s smokers live in low-and-middle income countries. And some of these countries are experiencing economic growth, meaning more women are able to afford tobacco.

And in countries experiencing economic growth, more women are moving from rural parts of the countries into cities, where smoking is more common. “Educated women in urban Mumbai (India) for example, are more likely to be smokers than young women in rural Maharashtra,” she says. These factors lead to an uptake in tobacco use.

Second, the industry understands and takes advantage of changing gender roles. Just like industries who capitalised on societally-defined differences between men and women, including the marketing of ‘girls’ and ‘boys’ toys, the tobacco industry has used a series of tactics to take advantage of the way countries define gender to drive sales of its products. For example, by creating female branded packs that promote attributes such as slimness, glamour and attractiveness.

But they’ve not stopped there. The tobacco industry has also designed products to appeal to women at different stages of their life and fostered the false idea that tobacco is linked to empowerment.

Cigarette brands for younger women emphasise confidence, freedom and independence, while those marketed towards older women drew on themes of relaxation and escape from daily stresses.

Who societies think ‘should’ or ‘shouldn’t’ smoke has also been influenced by the tobacco industry. “You might believe that [smoking] is a symbol of independence, because a commercial company is telling you this story. Particularly if you live in a country where in your grandparents’ generation men were the only ones allowed to smoke,” says Hawkes.

It’s not just smoking

It’s not just women starting to smoke that’s behind this trend. 64% of those who die from exposure to second-hand smoke are women.

Women have the highest exposure to second hand smoke at home and in the work place. This is often a result of their limited ability to negotiate against their domestic roles, unequal power relationships and restricted living circumstances.

With more women dying from lung cancer than ever before, we need to better understand the links between gender and health.

How can we buck the trend?

“We need to join the dots,” says Professor Hawkes, making a plea to policy makers that it’s time to understand how complex the determinants of ill-health are.

It’s not a coincidence that more women are dying from lung cancer.

The tobacco industry understands that factors like gender can have a significant influence on how people use or are exposed to tobacco. So we need to make efforts to understand this too.

And if we incorporate an understanding of factors like gender into tobacco control programmes, we could help to prevent women and children’s exposure to second hand smoke.

Take Australia and Canada for example. They’ve helped to reduce the risk of second hand smoke by taking into consideration what it means to be a good father in their country and playing on that perception.

But innovative initiatives like this are few and far between, as Professor Hawkes explains. “I’ve spent a lot of time collecting evidence on the impact of gender on health then wondering why this evidence wasn’t making it into policy change”.

We are seeing more governments enforce policies such as bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsporship. But we need to see more of this in countries where the tobacco industry increasingly operates.

“The tobacco industry are masters of understanding how to manipulate gender norms to increase their profits” Professor Hawkes explains.

The onus is on us to be just as good at understanding how factors like gender are causing the global smoking epidemic to spread. And to help us stop it.

Priscilla Tiigah is a Policy and Research Advisor at Cancer Researck UK

Read more about the International Cancer Prevention Programme at Cancer Research UK



from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://bit.ly/2WGwll2

It’s hurricane season: 4 things to know

Smashed and crushed boat and wood debris at the edge of a bay under a blue sky.

Debris in a boatyard in Mexico Beach, Florida, on October 11, 2018, after Hurricane Michael heavily damaged the town. Image via AP Photo/Gerald Herbert, File

By Jennifer Weeks, The Conversation

The official Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1, even as many communities are still recovering from a destructive year in 2018. Hurricane Florence swamped much of the Carolinas in September, followed by Hurricane Michael, which battered the Florida Panhandle less than a month later. Together, these two storms killed at least 113 people and caused billions of dollars in damages.

For 2019, federal forecasters are predicting a “near-normal” hurricane season, with nine to 15 named storms expected to form and two to four of them developing into major hurricanes. But as weather experts warn, it only takes one storm making landfall to make it an active season for people in harm’s way. Here are five expert takes on preparing for whatever the 2019 hurricane season brings.

1. How forecasters make predictions

We rely on expert forecasters to tell us how strong hurricanes will be, the odds that they will make landfall and where they’re most likely to come ashore. But how do stormcasters develop judgments from enormous quantities of data?

As Florida State University meteorologists Mark Bourassa and Vasu Misra explain, models – complex software packages that run on large computers – are essential. But models’ results don’t always agree with each other. That’s why forecasters use collections of storm models instead of just one. And they may tweak certain assumptions built into the models to account for uncertainty about conditions in a particular storm.

Storm track forecasts have become much more accurate in recent decades, but predictions of storm intensity have changed little. That’s because it’s hard to capture all the variables that determine storm intensity. “Models are inexact in their descriptions of the entire state of the atmosphere and ocean at the start time of the model,” Bourassa and Misra acknowledge – a point worth remembering if a storm heads in your direction.

2. Should I stay or should I go?

If a hurricane is approaching, should you leave? It’s a complicated question, especially when evacuations are recommended but not mandatory. Residents have to weigh the economic and emotional costs of relocating against damage forecasts that may be changing hourly.

Government officials feel the pressure when they have to decide whether to order people out of town. University of South Carolina geographer Susan Cutter calls these decisions

… part science, part skill based on experience, and part luck.

Constituents may be angry if they evacuate and the storm misses their area – but leaving people in harm’s way is clearly a worse prospect.

Planners base evacuation decisions on many factors beyond storm forecasts, Cutter writes. They also consider road networks, demographics, and whether and how quickly residents are likely to follow orders. Cutter notes:

It is hard to predict the path of hurricanes, and even more so the behavior of people in response to them.

3. The risks extend inland

A hurricane is bearing down on the Atlantic or Gulf coast, but you’re on vacation in the mountains. Should you track the forecasts?

Louisiana State University geographer Craig Colten’s response is an emphatic yes. As Colten has found in his research on water in the U.S. South, the risk of catastrophic flooding during and after hurricanes extends many miles inland. However, communities away from the shore often are not as well prepared for these emergencies.

Geography makes the U.S. eastern seaboard highly vulnerable to river flooding from tropical storms, Colten shows. He said:

From New England to Georgia, a dense network of rivers flows down from the eastern Appalachians across the Piedmont – a broad, rolling plateau extending from the mountains to the coastal plain – and drains into the Atlantic Ocean. Steep gradients move water quickly down the mountain slopes.

When hurricanes and tropical storms move inland, they meet the steep face of the Blue Ridge Mountains and rise, cooling and releasing huge quantities of rain. These deluges, he said

… funnel into river networks and rush toward the sea, often spilling over the banks of overwhelmed channels.

This pattern was readily apparent in September 2018 when Hurricane Florence dumped 20 to 30 inches of rain on many parts of North Carolina, setting flood records at 28 different locations.

Aerial view of flooded landscape, blue water surrounding half-submerged buildings.

Flooding in South Carolina after Hurricane Florence, September 21, 2018. Image via U.S. National Guard/Senior Airman Megan Floyd

4. Your social networks can help or hurt you

Social media can be extremely helpful during a disaster. Apps deliver weather updates, public service announcements and directions to the nearest gas station that still has fuel. People can use Facebook or Twitter to call for help when they’re cut off from roads or lose power, and emergency managers use them to organize and deliver food and medical supplies.

But when Northeastern University political scientist Daniel Aldrich analyzed how people’s social networks of friends and relatives influenced choices about evacuating, he found more nuanced results. People with extended, far-flung social networks were more likely to evacuate in advance of an oncoming storm, Aldrich observed:

In contrast, we found that having stronger bonding ties – that is, family and friends – made people less likely to evacuate leading up to a hurricane. In our view, this is a critical insight. People whose immediate, close networks are strong may feel supported and better-prepared to weather the storm.

Strong networks are invaluable for anyone weathering the stress of a major disaster. However, Aldrich’s research suggests that a person who sees others in her immediate, close network staying in place may opt not to evacuate, when heeding warnings from public officials would be a better, albeit less natural, choice.

This article is a round-up of stories from The Conversation’s archive.

Jennifer Weeks, Environment + Energy Editor, The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Bottom line: For hurricane season 2019: How forecasters make predictions, whether to stay or evacuate, what kinds of risks extend inland, and how your social networks can help or hurt you.

The Conversation



from EarthSky http://bit.ly/2wtFHSb
Smashed and crushed boat and wood debris at the edge of a bay under a blue sky.

Debris in a boatyard in Mexico Beach, Florida, on October 11, 2018, after Hurricane Michael heavily damaged the town. Image via AP Photo/Gerald Herbert, File

By Jennifer Weeks, The Conversation

The official Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1, even as many communities are still recovering from a destructive year in 2018. Hurricane Florence swamped much of the Carolinas in September, followed by Hurricane Michael, which battered the Florida Panhandle less than a month later. Together, these two storms killed at least 113 people and caused billions of dollars in damages.

For 2019, federal forecasters are predicting a “near-normal” hurricane season, with nine to 15 named storms expected to form and two to four of them developing into major hurricanes. But as weather experts warn, it only takes one storm making landfall to make it an active season for people in harm’s way. Here are five expert takes on preparing for whatever the 2019 hurricane season brings.

1. How forecasters make predictions

We rely on expert forecasters to tell us how strong hurricanes will be, the odds that they will make landfall and where they’re most likely to come ashore. But how do stormcasters develop judgments from enormous quantities of data?

As Florida State University meteorologists Mark Bourassa and Vasu Misra explain, models – complex software packages that run on large computers – are essential. But models’ results don’t always agree with each other. That’s why forecasters use collections of storm models instead of just one. And they may tweak certain assumptions built into the models to account for uncertainty about conditions in a particular storm.

Storm track forecasts have become much more accurate in recent decades, but predictions of storm intensity have changed little. That’s because it’s hard to capture all the variables that determine storm intensity. “Models are inexact in their descriptions of the entire state of the atmosphere and ocean at the start time of the model,” Bourassa and Misra acknowledge – a point worth remembering if a storm heads in your direction.

2. Should I stay or should I go?

If a hurricane is approaching, should you leave? It’s a complicated question, especially when evacuations are recommended but not mandatory. Residents have to weigh the economic and emotional costs of relocating against damage forecasts that may be changing hourly.

Government officials feel the pressure when they have to decide whether to order people out of town. University of South Carolina geographer Susan Cutter calls these decisions

… part science, part skill based on experience, and part luck.

Constituents may be angry if they evacuate and the storm misses their area – but leaving people in harm’s way is clearly a worse prospect.

Planners base evacuation decisions on many factors beyond storm forecasts, Cutter writes. They also consider road networks, demographics, and whether and how quickly residents are likely to follow orders. Cutter notes:

It is hard to predict the path of hurricanes, and even more so the behavior of people in response to them.

3. The risks extend inland

A hurricane is bearing down on the Atlantic or Gulf coast, but you’re on vacation in the mountains. Should you track the forecasts?

Louisiana State University geographer Craig Colten’s response is an emphatic yes. As Colten has found in his research on water in the U.S. South, the risk of catastrophic flooding during and after hurricanes extends many miles inland. However, communities away from the shore often are not as well prepared for these emergencies.

Geography makes the U.S. eastern seaboard highly vulnerable to river flooding from tropical storms, Colten shows. He said:

From New England to Georgia, a dense network of rivers flows down from the eastern Appalachians across the Piedmont – a broad, rolling plateau extending from the mountains to the coastal plain – and drains into the Atlantic Ocean. Steep gradients move water quickly down the mountain slopes.

When hurricanes and tropical storms move inland, they meet the steep face of the Blue Ridge Mountains and rise, cooling and releasing huge quantities of rain. These deluges, he said

… funnel into river networks and rush toward the sea, often spilling over the banks of overwhelmed channels.

This pattern was readily apparent in September 2018 when Hurricane Florence dumped 20 to 30 inches of rain on many parts of North Carolina, setting flood records at 28 different locations.

Aerial view of flooded landscape, blue water surrounding half-submerged buildings.

Flooding in South Carolina after Hurricane Florence, September 21, 2018. Image via U.S. National Guard/Senior Airman Megan Floyd

4. Your social networks can help or hurt you

Social media can be extremely helpful during a disaster. Apps deliver weather updates, public service announcements and directions to the nearest gas station that still has fuel. People can use Facebook or Twitter to call for help when they’re cut off from roads or lose power, and emergency managers use them to organize and deliver food and medical supplies.

But when Northeastern University political scientist Daniel Aldrich analyzed how people’s social networks of friends and relatives influenced choices about evacuating, he found more nuanced results. People with extended, far-flung social networks were more likely to evacuate in advance of an oncoming storm, Aldrich observed:

In contrast, we found that having stronger bonding ties – that is, family and friends – made people less likely to evacuate leading up to a hurricane. In our view, this is a critical insight. People whose immediate, close networks are strong may feel supported and better-prepared to weather the storm.

Strong networks are invaluable for anyone weathering the stress of a major disaster. However, Aldrich’s research suggests that a person who sees others in her immediate, close network staying in place may opt not to evacuate, when heeding warnings from public officials would be a better, albeit less natural, choice.

This article is a round-up of stories from The Conversation’s archive.

Jennifer Weeks, Environment + Energy Editor, The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Bottom line: For hurricane season 2019: How forecasters make predictions, whether to stay or evacuate, what kinds of risks extend inland, and how your social networks can help or hurt you.

The Conversation



from EarthSky http://bit.ly/2wtFHSb

How do hurricanes get their names?

Oblique orbital view of very wide round storm with spot in middle.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends November 30.

Ever wonder how hurricanes get their names? And why do hurricanes have names at all? Meteorologists long ago learned that naming tropical storms and hurricanes helps people remember the storms, communicate about them more effectively, and so stay safer if and when a particular storm strikes a coast. These experts assign names to hurricanes according to a formal list of names that is approved prior to the start of each hurricane season. The U.S. National Hurricane Center started this practice in the early 1950s. Now, the World Meteorological Organization generates and maintains the list of hurricane names.

Here are the hurricane names for 2019:

Atlantic hurricane names are Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

Eastern North Pacific hurricane names are Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, Erick, Flossie, Gil, Henriette, Ivo, Juliette, Kiko, Lorena, Mario, Narda, Octave, Priscilla, Raymond, Sonia, Tico, Velma, Wallis, Xina, York, and Zelda. The eastern North Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30.

If you’re interested, you can view those names, and names for upcoming years, here.

Huge swirling mass of clouds with dark hold in center.

The eyewall of Hurricane Michael photographed on October 10, 2018, by astronauts onboard the International Space Station. Hurricane Michael was a category 5 storm when it made landfall in the vicinity of Mexico Beach, Florida, on October 10. Image via NASA.

How and why did hurricanes first begin receiving names? While people have been naming major storms for hundreds of years, most hurricanes were originally designated by a system of latitude-longitude numbers, which was useful to meteorologists trying to track these storms. Unfortunately, this system was confusing to people living on coasts seeking hurricane information.

In the early 1950s, a formal practice for storm naming was first developed for the Atlantic Ocean by the U.S. National Hurricane Center. At that time, storms were named according to a phonetic alphabet (e.g., Able, Baker, Charlie) and the names used were the same for each hurricane season; in other words, the first hurricane of a season was always named “Able,” the second “Baker,” and so on.

In 1953, to avoid the repetitive use of names, the system was revised so that storms would be given female names. By doing this, the National Weather Service was mimicking the habit of naval meteorologists, who named the storms after women, much as ships at sea were traditionally named for women.

In 1978–1979, the system was revised again to include both female and male hurricane names.

See the complete history of naming hurricanes, from NOAA

Coastline with blooms of darker water coming out from river mouths.

Debris being washed offshore in the flooding caused by Hurricane Florence. The imagery was captured by USGS’s Landsat 8 satellite. Hurricane Florence was only a category 1 storm when it finally made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, on September 14, 2018, but the slow-moving storm caused devastating flooding. Image via NASA.

When does a storm receive a name? Tropical storms are given names when they display a rotating circulation pattern and wind speeds of 39 miles per hour (63 kilometers per hour). A tropical storm develops into a hurricane when wind speeds reach 74 mph (119 kph).

Lists of hurricane names have been developed for many of the major ocean basins around the world. Today, there are six lists of hurricane names in use for Atlantic Ocean and Eastern North Pacific storms. These lists rotate, one each year. That means the list of this year’s hurricane names for each basin will come up again six years from now. There’s an exception to this practice, however. The names of hurricanes that are particularly damaging are retired for legal, cultural sensitivity, and historical reasons. For example, the use of the name Katrina was retired in 2005 following the devastating impact that Hurricane Katrina had on New Orleans. In March 2019, the World Meteorological Organization removed the names Florence and Michael from its lists for the Atlantic Ocean basin and replaced the names with Francine and Milton. Hurricanes Florence and Michael, which respectively struck the coasts of North Carolina and Florida in 2018, each caused tremendous damage and dozens of fatalities.

Oblique orbital view of large round white hurricane with distinct spirals and eye.

Hurricane Katrina on August 28, 2005. Image via NASA.

Bottom line: The World Meteorological Organization manages the formal system by which hurricanes receive their names. The names for each ocean area are published in lists prior to the hurricane season. Find hurricane names for 2019 here.

Help EarthSky keep going! Please donate.



from EarthSky http://bit.ly/2Q0SO6s
Oblique orbital view of very wide round storm with spot in middle.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends November 30.

Ever wonder how hurricanes get their names? And why do hurricanes have names at all? Meteorologists long ago learned that naming tropical storms and hurricanes helps people remember the storms, communicate about them more effectively, and so stay safer if and when a particular storm strikes a coast. These experts assign names to hurricanes according to a formal list of names that is approved prior to the start of each hurricane season. The U.S. National Hurricane Center started this practice in the early 1950s. Now, the World Meteorological Organization generates and maintains the list of hurricane names.

Here are the hurricane names for 2019:

Atlantic hurricane names are Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

Eastern North Pacific hurricane names are Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, Erick, Flossie, Gil, Henriette, Ivo, Juliette, Kiko, Lorena, Mario, Narda, Octave, Priscilla, Raymond, Sonia, Tico, Velma, Wallis, Xina, York, and Zelda. The eastern North Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30.

If you’re interested, you can view those names, and names for upcoming years, here.

Huge swirling mass of clouds with dark hold in center.

The eyewall of Hurricane Michael photographed on October 10, 2018, by astronauts onboard the International Space Station. Hurricane Michael was a category 5 storm when it made landfall in the vicinity of Mexico Beach, Florida, on October 10. Image via NASA.

How and why did hurricanes first begin receiving names? While people have been naming major storms for hundreds of years, most hurricanes were originally designated by a system of latitude-longitude numbers, which was useful to meteorologists trying to track these storms. Unfortunately, this system was confusing to people living on coasts seeking hurricane information.

In the early 1950s, a formal practice for storm naming was first developed for the Atlantic Ocean by the U.S. National Hurricane Center. At that time, storms were named according to a phonetic alphabet (e.g., Able, Baker, Charlie) and the names used were the same for each hurricane season; in other words, the first hurricane of a season was always named “Able,” the second “Baker,” and so on.

In 1953, to avoid the repetitive use of names, the system was revised so that storms would be given female names. By doing this, the National Weather Service was mimicking the habit of naval meteorologists, who named the storms after women, much as ships at sea were traditionally named for women.

In 1978–1979, the system was revised again to include both female and male hurricane names.

See the complete history of naming hurricanes, from NOAA

Coastline with blooms of darker water coming out from river mouths.

Debris being washed offshore in the flooding caused by Hurricane Florence. The imagery was captured by USGS’s Landsat 8 satellite. Hurricane Florence was only a category 1 storm when it finally made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, on September 14, 2018, but the slow-moving storm caused devastating flooding. Image via NASA.

When does a storm receive a name? Tropical storms are given names when they display a rotating circulation pattern and wind speeds of 39 miles per hour (63 kilometers per hour). A tropical storm develops into a hurricane when wind speeds reach 74 mph (119 kph).

Lists of hurricane names have been developed for many of the major ocean basins around the world. Today, there are six lists of hurricane names in use for Atlantic Ocean and Eastern North Pacific storms. These lists rotate, one each year. That means the list of this year’s hurricane names for each basin will come up again six years from now. There’s an exception to this practice, however. The names of hurricanes that are particularly damaging are retired for legal, cultural sensitivity, and historical reasons. For example, the use of the name Katrina was retired in 2005 following the devastating impact that Hurricane Katrina had on New Orleans. In March 2019, the World Meteorological Organization removed the names Florence and Michael from its lists for the Atlantic Ocean basin and replaced the names with Francine and Milton. Hurricanes Florence and Michael, which respectively struck the coasts of North Carolina and Florida in 2018, each caused tremendous damage and dozens of fatalities.

Oblique orbital view of large round white hurricane with distinct spirals and eye.

Hurricane Katrina on August 28, 2005. Image via NASA.

Bottom line: The World Meteorological Organization manages the formal system by which hurricanes receive their names. The names for each ocean area are published in lists prior to the hurricane season. Find hurricane names for 2019 here.

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Historical hurricane tracks

East coast map. Very many red lines into coastline continuing as orange and yellow.

View larger. | Hurricane tracks over a 115-year interval. Each of these storm systems reached hurricane strength while the storm center was within 50 nautical miles of the U.S. coastline. Image via EPA.

Map showing hurricane tracks that reached the U.S. East Coast, Florida, Gulf Coast, and Puerto Rico area from 1900 to 2015. You can zoom in on this map, see other parts of the world, and find more interactive maps and information here.



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East coast map. Very many red lines into coastline continuing as orange and yellow.

View larger. | Hurricane tracks over a 115-year interval. Each of these storm systems reached hurricane strength while the storm center was within 50 nautical miles of the U.S. coastline. Image via EPA.

Map showing hurricane tracks that reached the U.S. East Coast, Florida, Gulf Coast, and Puerto Rico area from 1900 to 2015. You can zoom in on this map, see other parts of the world, and find more interactive maps and information here.



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April 2019 2nd hottest on record for globe

Map of the world with description boxes showing climate anomalies.

View larger. | An annotated map of the world showing notable climate events that occurred in April 2019. Image via NOAA.

Earth continues to warm, and last month was no exception.

Despite the cool springtime weather for some of us in the U.S., globally April 2019 was the second-hottest April in the climate record, dating back to 1880, according to NOAA’s April 2019 Global Climate Report. The Arctic region wasn’t spared either, as sea ice coverage shrank to a record low for the month.

The average global temperature in April was 1.67 degrees Fahrenheit (.9 degrees Celsius) above the 20th-century average of 56.7 degrees F (13.7 degrees C), making it the second-hottest April in the 140-year record, behind April 2016. Last month also was the 43rd consecutive April and 412th consecutive month that saw above-average global temperatures.

Map of Arctic and Antarctic showing extent of ice.

April 2019 marked the 18th consecutive April with Arctic sea ice extent below average. This was the smallest Arctic sea ice extent for April in the 41-year record at 8.4% below the 1981–2010 average and 89,000 square miles (230,500 sq km) below the previous record low set in April 2016, according to an analysis by the National Snow and Ice Data Center using data from NOAA and NASA. Image via NOAA.

Here are some highlights from NOAA’s latest monthly global climate report (read the full report here):

The period from January through April produced a global temperature 1.62 degrees F (.9 degrees C) above the average of 54.8 degrees F (12.7 degrees C), which is the third-hottest year-to-date on record. The record-warm temperatures for the four-month period were registered in parts of Australia, southeastern Brazil, central Asia, the southern Atlantic and southwestern Indian oceans and the Barents, East China and Tasman seas.

Sea ice shrank markedly at both poles: Average Arctic sea ice coverage (extent) in April was 8.4 percent below the 1981-2010 average – the lowest for April on record. The Antarctic sea ice extent was 16.6 percent below average, the third smallest for April on record.

Canadian coolness reached southward: Cooler-than-average temperatures were logged from January through April across much of Canada and the north-central U.S., about 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) below average.

March 2019 was also the 2nd hottest March on record for the globe.

Bottom line: NOAA reports that April 2019 was the second-hottest April on record. In the Arctic, sea ice coverage shrank to a record low for the month. The period from January through April was the thirrd-hottest year-to-date on record.

Via NOAA



from EarthSky http://bit.ly/2I5avhA
Map of the world with description boxes showing climate anomalies.

View larger. | An annotated map of the world showing notable climate events that occurred in April 2019. Image via NOAA.

Earth continues to warm, and last month was no exception.

Despite the cool springtime weather for some of us in the U.S., globally April 2019 was the second-hottest April in the climate record, dating back to 1880, according to NOAA’s April 2019 Global Climate Report. The Arctic region wasn’t spared either, as sea ice coverage shrank to a record low for the month.

The average global temperature in April was 1.67 degrees Fahrenheit (.9 degrees Celsius) above the 20th-century average of 56.7 degrees F (13.7 degrees C), making it the second-hottest April in the 140-year record, behind April 2016. Last month also was the 43rd consecutive April and 412th consecutive month that saw above-average global temperatures.

Map of Arctic and Antarctic showing extent of ice.

April 2019 marked the 18th consecutive April with Arctic sea ice extent below average. This was the smallest Arctic sea ice extent for April in the 41-year record at 8.4% below the 1981–2010 average and 89,000 square miles (230,500 sq km) below the previous record low set in April 2016, according to an analysis by the National Snow and Ice Data Center using data from NOAA and NASA. Image via NOAA.

Here are some highlights from NOAA’s latest monthly global climate report (read the full report here):

The period from January through April produced a global temperature 1.62 degrees F (.9 degrees C) above the average of 54.8 degrees F (12.7 degrees C), which is the third-hottest year-to-date on record. The record-warm temperatures for the four-month period were registered in parts of Australia, southeastern Brazil, central Asia, the southern Atlantic and southwestern Indian oceans and the Barents, East China and Tasman seas.

Sea ice shrank markedly at both poles: Average Arctic sea ice coverage (extent) in April was 8.4 percent below the 1981-2010 average – the lowest for April on record. The Antarctic sea ice extent was 16.6 percent below average, the third smallest for April on record.

Canadian coolness reached southward: Cooler-than-average temperatures were logged from January through April across much of Canada and the north-central U.S., about 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) below average.

March 2019 was also the 2nd hottest March on record for the globe.

Bottom line: NOAA reports that April 2019 was the second-hottest April on record. In the Arctic, sea ice coverage shrank to a record low for the month. The period from January through April was the thirrd-hottest year-to-date on record.

Via NOAA



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