ExoMars will land in Oxia Planum in 2021

Map of Mars showing the 2 finalist landing sites on Mars, Mawrth Vallis and Oxia Planum. Now Oxia Planum has been given the nod for ESA’s ExoMars mission. Image via NASA/JPL/USGS.

Mars will continue to be a busy place in the near future, with NASA’s InSight spacecraft landing just a few days ago on November 26, and the Mars 2020 rover landing in 2021. But NASA is not the only one going back to the red planet – the European Space Agency (ESA) is getting ready for its own rover mission – ExoMars – which will also land in 2021. The landing site for ExoMars was announced this month (November 2018), and the winner is Oxia Planum.

The ExoMars rover mission is designed specifically to look for evidence of life on Mars, most likely underground if it exists. According to Graham Turnock, Chief Executive at the UK Space Agency:

After the Earth, Mars is the most habitable planet in the solar system, so it’s a perfect destination to explore the possibility of life on other planets, as well as the history of our own.

The UK Space Agency is the second-largest European contributor to the ExoMars mission, with €287 million invested in the overall mission and £14 million in the instruments. UKSA also negotiated key mission contracts with ESA.

EarthSky lunar calendars are cool! They make great gifts. Order now. Going fast!

Artist’s concept of the ExoMars rover, which will land in Oxia Planum in 2021. Image via ESA.

Oxia Planum was finally chosen over Mawrth Vallis, the other of the two finalist candidate landing sites, both of which used to be water-rich in the distant past. John Bridges, from the Space Research Centre, University of Leicester, and a member of the Landing Site Selection Working Group, explained how Oxia Planum was chosen over other candidate landing sites:

After over 4 years of careful study of HiRISE and more recently CaSSIS images Oxia Planum was chosen because scientists were convinced that its fine grained sediments, deposited during the ancient Noachian epoch were ideally suited for the Exobiology rover.

With an enormous catchment area the sediments will have captured organics from a wide variety of environments over a long period of time, including areas where life may have existed. The fine sediments should also be ideal for the ExoMars drill – it aims to get to 2 metres depth.

Remote identification with the Mars Express and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter infrared spectrometers shows the presence of clays and other minerals giving clues to its aqueous history.

A large group of scientists have been working on proposing, characterising and down selecting the sites, all of which had fascinating aspects, but Oxia Planum is the clear winner on both science and engineering constraints.

A texture map of Oxia Planum, created from data taken by NASA’s Mars Odyssey orbiter. Image via IRSPS/TAS/NASA/JPL-Caltech/Arizona State University.

As Sue Horne, Head of Space Exploration at the UK Space Agency also noted:

I have been working on ExoMars for over ten years and am amazed at the ingenuity and dedication of UK engineers and scientists in building the rover and instruments that will work in the extreme environment of Mars.

Our end goal is in sight and it is getting very exciting.

ExoMars will be the second Mars mission, after only Mars 2020 and the Viking landers in the late 1970s/early 1980s to search directly for evidence of life instead of only focusing past habitability. According to ExoMars 2020 project scientist Jorge Vago:

With ExoMars we are on a quest to find biosignatures. While both sites offer valuable scientific opportunities to explore ancient water-rich environments that could have been colonised by microorganisms, Oxia Planum received the majority of votes.

An impressive amount of work has gone into characterising the proposed sites, demonstrating that they meet the scientific requirements for the goals of the ExoMars mission. Mawrth Vallis is a scientifically unique site, but Oxia Planum offers an additional safety margin for entry, descent and landing, and for traversing the terrain to reach the scientifically interesting sites that have been identified from orbit.

A portion of Oxia Planum, as seen by NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Image via NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS.

Oxia Planum is just north of the martian equator, in a region with many channels – carved by ancient rivers – cutting through from the southern highlands to the northern lowlands. Such previously water-rich areas are prime targets for rovers and landers when searching for evidence of not only past habitability, but even life itself. Oxia Planum is at a boundary where many channels emptied into the lower plains, and those plains exhibit layers of clay-rich minerals that were formed in water-rich conditions about four billion years ago. The channels cover a large area, about 131,000 square miles (212,000 square km).

The rover will drill down into the martian surface – up to 6.5 feet (two meters) deep – to look for organic material that could be evidence for life. It is designed to take a minimum of 17 samples to be analyzed by the Analytical Laboratory Drawer.

Comparison of different components of the ExoMars mission to the Big Ben tower in London. Image via ESA.

Landing on Mars is never easy, but Francois Spoto, ExoMars Programme team leader, is confident:

Our ExoMars mission combines extreme performance with the novel design features of the rover, and we are looking forward to operating the first European mission on the surface of Mars. Landing on Mars has a long chain of risks, but thanks to the combined skills and expertise of European and Russian industries working with reliable technologies, we are focused on a safe landing.

The other part of the ExoMars mission, the Trace Gas Orbiter, has already been orbiting Mars for several months now, and is analyzing the atmosphere, including looking for trace gases such as methane – detected previously by other telescopes, orbiters and the Curiosity rover – that could indicate possible current life or geologic activity.

Bottom line: The next phase of the ExoMars mission – the 2021 rover – will be an exciting one, as it explores Oxia Planum searching for signs of life beneath the once wet but now dry and sandy surface.

Via ESA

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2U0ACLF

Map of Mars showing the 2 finalist landing sites on Mars, Mawrth Vallis and Oxia Planum. Now Oxia Planum has been given the nod for ESA’s ExoMars mission. Image via NASA/JPL/USGS.

Mars will continue to be a busy place in the near future, with NASA’s InSight spacecraft landing just a few days ago on November 26, and the Mars 2020 rover landing in 2021. But NASA is not the only one going back to the red planet – the European Space Agency (ESA) is getting ready for its own rover mission – ExoMars – which will also land in 2021. The landing site for ExoMars was announced this month (November 2018), and the winner is Oxia Planum.

The ExoMars rover mission is designed specifically to look for evidence of life on Mars, most likely underground if it exists. According to Graham Turnock, Chief Executive at the UK Space Agency:

After the Earth, Mars is the most habitable planet in the solar system, so it’s a perfect destination to explore the possibility of life on other planets, as well as the history of our own.

The UK Space Agency is the second-largest European contributor to the ExoMars mission, with €287 million invested in the overall mission and £14 million in the instruments. UKSA also negotiated key mission contracts with ESA.

EarthSky lunar calendars are cool! They make great gifts. Order now. Going fast!

Artist’s concept of the ExoMars rover, which will land in Oxia Planum in 2021. Image via ESA.

Oxia Planum was finally chosen over Mawrth Vallis, the other of the two finalist candidate landing sites, both of which used to be water-rich in the distant past. John Bridges, from the Space Research Centre, University of Leicester, and a member of the Landing Site Selection Working Group, explained how Oxia Planum was chosen over other candidate landing sites:

After over 4 years of careful study of HiRISE and more recently CaSSIS images Oxia Planum was chosen because scientists were convinced that its fine grained sediments, deposited during the ancient Noachian epoch were ideally suited for the Exobiology rover.

With an enormous catchment area the sediments will have captured organics from a wide variety of environments over a long period of time, including areas where life may have existed. The fine sediments should also be ideal for the ExoMars drill – it aims to get to 2 metres depth.

Remote identification with the Mars Express and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter infrared spectrometers shows the presence of clays and other minerals giving clues to its aqueous history.

A large group of scientists have been working on proposing, characterising and down selecting the sites, all of which had fascinating aspects, but Oxia Planum is the clear winner on both science and engineering constraints.

A texture map of Oxia Planum, created from data taken by NASA’s Mars Odyssey orbiter. Image via IRSPS/TAS/NASA/JPL-Caltech/Arizona State University.

As Sue Horne, Head of Space Exploration at the UK Space Agency also noted:

I have been working on ExoMars for over ten years and am amazed at the ingenuity and dedication of UK engineers and scientists in building the rover and instruments that will work in the extreme environment of Mars.

Our end goal is in sight and it is getting very exciting.

ExoMars will be the second Mars mission, after only Mars 2020 and the Viking landers in the late 1970s/early 1980s to search directly for evidence of life instead of only focusing past habitability. According to ExoMars 2020 project scientist Jorge Vago:

With ExoMars we are on a quest to find biosignatures. While both sites offer valuable scientific opportunities to explore ancient water-rich environments that could have been colonised by microorganisms, Oxia Planum received the majority of votes.

An impressive amount of work has gone into characterising the proposed sites, demonstrating that they meet the scientific requirements for the goals of the ExoMars mission. Mawrth Vallis is a scientifically unique site, but Oxia Planum offers an additional safety margin for entry, descent and landing, and for traversing the terrain to reach the scientifically interesting sites that have been identified from orbit.

A portion of Oxia Planum, as seen by NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Image via NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS.

Oxia Planum is just north of the martian equator, in a region with many channels – carved by ancient rivers – cutting through from the southern highlands to the northern lowlands. Such previously water-rich areas are prime targets for rovers and landers when searching for evidence of not only past habitability, but even life itself. Oxia Planum is at a boundary where many channels emptied into the lower plains, and those plains exhibit layers of clay-rich minerals that were formed in water-rich conditions about four billion years ago. The channels cover a large area, about 131,000 square miles (212,000 square km).

The rover will drill down into the martian surface – up to 6.5 feet (two meters) deep – to look for organic material that could be evidence for life. It is designed to take a minimum of 17 samples to be analyzed by the Analytical Laboratory Drawer.

Comparison of different components of the ExoMars mission to the Big Ben tower in London. Image via ESA.

Landing on Mars is never easy, but Francois Spoto, ExoMars Programme team leader, is confident:

Our ExoMars mission combines extreme performance with the novel design features of the rover, and we are looking forward to operating the first European mission on the surface of Mars. Landing on Mars has a long chain of risks, but thanks to the combined skills and expertise of European and Russian industries working with reliable technologies, we are focused on a safe landing.

The other part of the ExoMars mission, the Trace Gas Orbiter, has already been orbiting Mars for several months now, and is analyzing the atmosphere, including looking for trace gases such as methane – detected previously by other telescopes, orbiters and the Curiosity rover – that could indicate possible current life or geologic activity.

Bottom line: The next phase of the ExoMars mission – the 2021 rover – will be an exciting one, as it explores Oxia Planum searching for signs of life beneath the once wet but now dry and sandy surface.

Via ESA

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2U0ACLF

The future disappearance of Quelccaya Ice Cap

Image via GlacierHub.

This article is republished with permission from GlacierHub. This post was written by Nabilah Islam.

Quelccaya is the largest tropical ice cap in the world. It is located in the Central Andes of Peru and has a summit elevation of about 5,680 meters [18,635 feet]. A recent study suggests that the ice cap might soon cease to exist. Researchers used climate data to examine the impacts of the different forcings [or causes of change] to determine how imminent its future disappearance is, and to what extent human activity affects the timing.

About 99 percent of the world’s tropical glaciers are located in the Andes, with around 70 percent found in Peru. Glaciers in the tropical Andes are critical to the regional environment. Through runoff, they provide a much-needed water supply during the dry season. A future disappearance of Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC) could mean significant changes to the ecosystem, impacts on tourism, and consequences to the culture and traditions of the local populations.

EarthSky lunar calendars are cool! They make great gifts. Order now. Going fast!

Andes mountains in Peru. Image via Michael Mcdonough/Flickr.

Scientists used daily air temperature and snow height data to build projections of retreat at the QIC. Air temperature over the Peruvian Andes has increased over the last six decades, leading to greater retreat. Rising air surface temperatures are one of the major contributors to this retreat, although variations in precipitation and snowfall contribute as well. Meanwhile, El Nino and the South American Summer Monsoon can also impact QIC conditions, but on an interannual timescale.

The researchers also examined the different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs) that play a huge role in the future of tropical glaciers. RCPs are used in scientific modeling to provide temporal projections on greenhouse gas concentrations. These concentrations contribute to warming and have a great effect on glaciers. The rate of warming is typically amplified with elevation in many mountain regions due to elevation dependent feedbacks, which are explained further in the study.

Results of the research show that through anthropogenic and natural forcings, QIC loses mass at its front and base. This means that by around 2050, the ice cap could completely disappear. Even with a great reduction in greenhouse gas concentrations, results indicate that an eventual disappearance can be expected closer to the end of the century. The researchers further explained that these findings are consistent with observations of other glaciers in the tropics. We can look at glaciers in Bolivia, Colombia, and Venezuela, as they have also experienced accelerated retreat over the last decades.

Andrew Malone, a Visiting Assistant Professor at The University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC), told GlacierHub more about the shrinking of QIC and its impacts. “The largest impact would be on loss of water resources for communities both locally and downstream. In the short-term accelerated melting actually increases water resources. But as ice melts, that ‘stored’ water shrinks and shrinks, and at some point the glacier reservoir becomes so small that the total run-off contribution starts to decrease with time,” he said.

The melting of Qori Kalis glacier. The left is the glacier in 1978. Right image is from 2011, presenting a retreated glacier and the lake left from melt. Image via Bird Lai/Flickr.

Malone went on to explain that as glaciers melt, lakes form in their place. These lakes are dammed by glacial moraines, which are formed by buildup of falling dirt and rocks from melting glaciers. Moraines are not structurally sound. As ice falls off glaciers and into the new lakes, large waves can form and flood the downstream landscape. Malone said that this has happened to the lake in Qori Kalis valley, and as a result livestock were lost with the flooding. Similar events can be expected to happen at QIC as well.

While there is much research and understanding of the glacial and environmental impacts of climate change, the human impacts should also be considered. GlacierHub spoke with anthropologist Gustavo Valdivia, who is currently doing research on the Andes. His research looks at the impacts of QIC glacier melt on the nearby community of Phinaya. This community relies on herding alpaca, selling alpaca wool for their livelihood; thus, they are very dependent on runoff waters to irrigate the pastures for their flocks. At present the Phinaya community benefits from the greater runoff, Valdivia said, but this abundance is not likely to last long. The livestock might also be at risk from flooding, as seen in Qori Kalis.

EarthSky lunar calendars are cool! They make great gifts. Order now. Going fast!

Alpaca from the Phinaya community of Peru. Image via Christian Aid/Flickr.

Valdivia added that there is a key difference between understanding and experiencing climate. Researchers understand the science behind glacial retreat and warming, but it’s the people who experience these changes. He highlighted the importance of building genuine communication with scientific information. As glaciers continue to melt, it’s vital to build connections to the people and communities who are affected, examining ways in which we can adapt to the changes in our climate and environment. Though each community faces climate change in a specific way, they are also part of a global process of change.

Bottom line: A recent study suggests that the Quelccaya ice cap in Peru might soon cease to exist.

Via GlacierHub

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2AARQq1

Image via GlacierHub.

This article is republished with permission from GlacierHub. This post was written by Nabilah Islam.

Quelccaya is the largest tropical ice cap in the world. It is located in the Central Andes of Peru and has a summit elevation of about 5,680 meters [18,635 feet]. A recent study suggests that the ice cap might soon cease to exist. Researchers used climate data to examine the impacts of the different forcings [or causes of change] to determine how imminent its future disappearance is, and to what extent human activity affects the timing.

About 99 percent of the world’s tropical glaciers are located in the Andes, with around 70 percent found in Peru. Glaciers in the tropical Andes are critical to the regional environment. Through runoff, they provide a much-needed water supply during the dry season. A future disappearance of Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC) could mean significant changes to the ecosystem, impacts on tourism, and consequences to the culture and traditions of the local populations.

EarthSky lunar calendars are cool! They make great gifts. Order now. Going fast!

Andes mountains in Peru. Image via Michael Mcdonough/Flickr.

Scientists used daily air temperature and snow height data to build projections of retreat at the QIC. Air temperature over the Peruvian Andes has increased over the last six decades, leading to greater retreat. Rising air surface temperatures are one of the major contributors to this retreat, although variations in precipitation and snowfall contribute as well. Meanwhile, El Nino and the South American Summer Monsoon can also impact QIC conditions, but on an interannual timescale.

The researchers also examined the different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs) that play a huge role in the future of tropical glaciers. RCPs are used in scientific modeling to provide temporal projections on greenhouse gas concentrations. These concentrations contribute to warming and have a great effect on glaciers. The rate of warming is typically amplified with elevation in many mountain regions due to elevation dependent feedbacks, which are explained further in the study.

Results of the research show that through anthropogenic and natural forcings, QIC loses mass at its front and base. This means that by around 2050, the ice cap could completely disappear. Even with a great reduction in greenhouse gas concentrations, results indicate that an eventual disappearance can be expected closer to the end of the century. The researchers further explained that these findings are consistent with observations of other glaciers in the tropics. We can look at glaciers in Bolivia, Colombia, and Venezuela, as they have also experienced accelerated retreat over the last decades.

Andrew Malone, a Visiting Assistant Professor at The University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC), told GlacierHub more about the shrinking of QIC and its impacts. “The largest impact would be on loss of water resources for communities both locally and downstream. In the short-term accelerated melting actually increases water resources. But as ice melts, that ‘stored’ water shrinks and shrinks, and at some point the glacier reservoir becomes so small that the total run-off contribution starts to decrease with time,” he said.

The melting of Qori Kalis glacier. The left is the glacier in 1978. Right image is from 2011, presenting a retreated glacier and the lake left from melt. Image via Bird Lai/Flickr.

Malone went on to explain that as glaciers melt, lakes form in their place. These lakes are dammed by glacial moraines, which are formed by buildup of falling dirt and rocks from melting glaciers. Moraines are not structurally sound. As ice falls off glaciers and into the new lakes, large waves can form and flood the downstream landscape. Malone said that this has happened to the lake in Qori Kalis valley, and as a result livestock were lost with the flooding. Similar events can be expected to happen at QIC as well.

While there is much research and understanding of the glacial and environmental impacts of climate change, the human impacts should also be considered. GlacierHub spoke with anthropologist Gustavo Valdivia, who is currently doing research on the Andes. His research looks at the impacts of QIC glacier melt on the nearby community of Phinaya. This community relies on herding alpaca, selling alpaca wool for their livelihood; thus, they are very dependent on runoff waters to irrigate the pastures for their flocks. At present the Phinaya community benefits from the greater runoff, Valdivia said, but this abundance is not likely to last long. The livestock might also be at risk from flooding, as seen in Qori Kalis.

EarthSky lunar calendars are cool! They make great gifts. Order now. Going fast!

Alpaca from the Phinaya community of Peru. Image via Christian Aid/Flickr.

Valdivia added that there is a key difference between understanding and experiencing climate. Researchers understand the science behind glacial retreat and warming, but it’s the people who experience these changes. He highlighted the importance of building genuine communication with scientific information. As glaciers continue to melt, it’s vital to build connections to the people and communities who are affected, examining ways in which we can adapt to the changes in our climate and environment. Though each community faces climate change in a specific way, they are also part of a global process of change.

Bottom line: A recent study suggests that the Quelccaya ice cap in Peru might soon cease to exist.

Via GlacierHub

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2AARQq1

Pink lunar halo

Image via Eliot Herman.

EarthSky lunar calendars are cool! They make great gifts. Order now. Going fast!

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2KGRfYy

Image via Eliot Herman.

EarthSky lunar calendars are cool! They make great gifts. Order now. Going fast!

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2KGRfYy

Sun enters Ophiuchus on November 30

November 30, 2018. If you could see the stars in the daytime, you’d see the sun shining in front of the border of the constellations Ophiuchus and Scorpius on this date. The sun crosses a constellation boundary, into Ophiuchus.

You can’t see the constellation Ophiuchus when the sun lies in front of it. But, each Northern Hemisphere summer, you’ll find this constellation to the north of the bright star Antares in the constellation Scorpius.

At about this time each year, the sun passes out of Scorpius to enter Ophiuchus. Like Scorpius, Ophiuchus is a constellation of the zodiac … but unlike Scorpius, Ophiuchus is not one of the traditional twelve zodiacal constellations.

The sun will remain in front of Ophiuchus until December 18.

The ecliptic – which translates on our sky’s dome as the sun’s annual path in front of the background stars – actually passes through 13 constellations, as defined by the International Astronomical Union (IAU), although this is not commonly known. After all, when you read the horoscope in the daily newspaper or a monthly magazine, you see only 12 constellations, or signs, mentioned.

There are the 12 traditional zodiacal constellations that have been with us since ancient times. The relatively recent addition of Ophiuchus as a member of the zodiac has increased the number to 13.

Today’s constellation boundaries were drawn out by the International Astronomical Union in the 1930s.

View larger. | Ophiuchus the Serpent Bearer.

Look at the chart carefully, and you’ll see that the border between Ophiuchus and the constellation Scorpius for the most part lies just south of, or below, the ecliptic. In ancient times, the Ophuichus-Scorpius border was likely placed to the north of, or above, the ecliptic. Had the International Astronomical Union placed its constellation boundary where the ancients might have, the sun’s annual passing in front of Scorpius would be from about November 23 till December 18, not November 23 to November 30.

Sun in zodiacal constellations 2018

Sun in zodiacal signs 2018

Bottom line: As seen from Earth, the sun passes in front of the constellation Ophiuchus each year from about November 30 to December 18.

Birthday late November to middle December? Here’s your constellation

EarthSky astronomy kits are perfect for beginners. Order today from the EarthSky store

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/1w9dITp

November 30, 2018. If you could see the stars in the daytime, you’d see the sun shining in front of the border of the constellations Ophiuchus and Scorpius on this date. The sun crosses a constellation boundary, into Ophiuchus.

You can’t see the constellation Ophiuchus when the sun lies in front of it. But, each Northern Hemisphere summer, you’ll find this constellation to the north of the bright star Antares in the constellation Scorpius.

At about this time each year, the sun passes out of Scorpius to enter Ophiuchus. Like Scorpius, Ophiuchus is a constellation of the zodiac … but unlike Scorpius, Ophiuchus is not one of the traditional twelve zodiacal constellations.

The sun will remain in front of Ophiuchus until December 18.

The ecliptic – which translates on our sky’s dome as the sun’s annual path in front of the background stars – actually passes through 13 constellations, as defined by the International Astronomical Union (IAU), although this is not commonly known. After all, when you read the horoscope in the daily newspaper or a monthly magazine, you see only 12 constellations, or signs, mentioned.

There are the 12 traditional zodiacal constellations that have been with us since ancient times. The relatively recent addition of Ophiuchus as a member of the zodiac has increased the number to 13.

Today’s constellation boundaries were drawn out by the International Astronomical Union in the 1930s.

View larger. | Ophiuchus the Serpent Bearer.

Look at the chart carefully, and you’ll see that the border between Ophiuchus and the constellation Scorpius for the most part lies just south of, or below, the ecliptic. In ancient times, the Ophuichus-Scorpius border was likely placed to the north of, or above, the ecliptic. Had the International Astronomical Union placed its constellation boundary where the ancients might have, the sun’s annual passing in front of Scorpius would be from about November 23 till December 18, not November 23 to November 30.

Sun in zodiacal constellations 2018

Sun in zodiacal signs 2018

Bottom line: As seen from Earth, the sun passes in front of the constellation Ophiuchus each year from about November 30 to December 18.

Birthday late November to middle December? Here’s your constellation

EarthSky astronomy kits are perfect for beginners. Order today from the EarthSky store

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/1w9dITp

But their Emails!

Here we go again. It's always emails with these people.

First there was "Climategate!" — the misquoting, selective quoting, and uninformed quoting of stolen emails from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) in Great Britain. Emails between CRU scientists and other climate scientists around the world promised to peel back the curtain and reveal the global warming scam. Alarmist scientists had used "tricks" to "hide the decline"! They "can't account for the lack of warming" so they have to fake the temperature data! The whole thing is a hoax!

Not so much.

With out-of-context quoting you can make scientists say anything. And that was the case with Climategate — it suffered from an extreme lack of context. The full context of the emails simply showed scientists discussing their work openly with each other. They show that they are merely human — they are argumentative as well as congratulatory; they get angry, with each other and the contrarians who attack them and their work.

Despite contrarians' promise to reveal the nefarious world of scheming scientists, the larger context of emails plus the peer-reviewed literature merely shows how science works. The literature gives us the finished products of scientific research, while the emails give us a glimpse of the back-and-forth between scientists as they hash out their experiments, data, and interpretations, and work toward publishing their results. This science has withstood assaults like Climategate (and the nothingburger Son of Climategate: Climategate II) because there is no nefarious world to reveal here.

But that has not stopped the contrarians from trying the same thing over and over again. The latest example is the use of Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests — which are designed to allow taxpayers to have access to certain government records — to litigate for the release of more emails. Of particular interest are the emails of one Michael E. Mann, because apparently all of climate science hinges on his work, especially the “Hockey Stick”. Show that Mann’s research is fake and the entire house of cards will crumble.

In 2011, the American Tradition Institute (ATI) brought a lawsuit against Dr. Mann and the University of Virginia (where Mann was a professor from 1999 to 2005) for the release of his emails, claiming that as a public university professor, Mann’s emails were effectively government records that should be turned over to anyone who asked under Virginia’s FOIA law. The case went all the way to the Virginia Supreme Court, which rejected this premise and blocked this email release in 2014.

What is a climate science denying outfit like ATI supposed to do? Move on to a more “compliant” state. ATI morphed into the Energy and Environment Legal Institute (E&E) and brought a lawsuit in Arizona against the University of Arizona and two of its professors: Malcolm Hughes,  a coauthor of Mann’s on the famous Hockey Stick papers, and Jonathan Overpeck, a lead author on the IPCC’s fourth and fifth Assessment Reports.

E&E claims they are bringing these lawsuits in the interests of open science, to make the workings of scientific research available to all American arm-chair “scientists”. That sounds like a lofty goal. Except they also say they want the emails released in order to “embarrass both Professors Hughes and Overpeck and the University [of Arizona].” They also have not sought data, results, or other study information — only emails. Well, that doesn’t sound very “scientific”.

One wonders, if the shoe were on the other foot, and the private correspondence and paperwork of E&E were made available, what might the public learn about this “charity.

In the end, the courts in Arizona have proved to be more compliant than in Virginia: the emails will be released. But only after hours and hours of wasted time by Drs. Hughes and Overpeck in sifting through their years of emails to cull any truly confidential information:

Dr. Hughes testified it took him ten weeks to go through all the emails, and he lost an entire research summer to reviewing old emails as well as losing a grant that expired. Dr. Overpeck testified it took him six weeks to go through everything and he was unable to use his sabbatical. (Source)

This “wasted time” is another of the unstated goals of such lawsuits: take precious time away from climate scientists’ real research by burying them in frivolous busy-work.

In a preemptive move Michael Mann has decided to publish his own copies of the emails that the U of AZ was forced to release to E&E:

Of course, I wish I did not need to do this. But since these emails will be handed over any day now to David Schnare [of E&E], it is our hope to use this exercise instead as a teaching moment and an opportunity to further public appreciation and understanding of science...

You can access Mann's emails here, (enter “mail_guest” for both username and password).

In days and weeks to come, contrarians (who think they are arm-chair scientists) might sift through the U of AZ emails in hopes of finding some nugget to embarrass Mann, Hughes, Overpeck or any of the numerous scientists they email every day in their effort to understand how the climate system works. They may uncover more “tricks” used by scientists as they describe their research. There may be strong disagreements between scientists. There may be ridicule of the contrarians who pepper scientists with amateurish questions.

But the hoped for climate change scam will still fail to materialize from this new batch of emails. Anyone reading these emails (really reading them — not just poking at them to try to find “gotcha” phrases) will find scientists merely working together to understand the climate, and trying to find the best way to communicate what they discover to the wider world.

---

Thanks to jg for the illustration.

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2DQb2DI

Here we go again. It's always emails with these people.

First there was "Climategate!" — the misquoting, selective quoting, and uninformed quoting of stolen emails from the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) in Great Britain. Emails between CRU scientists and other climate scientists around the world promised to peel back the curtain and reveal the global warming scam. Alarmist scientists had used "tricks" to "hide the decline"! They "can't account for the lack of warming" so they have to fake the temperature data! The whole thing is a hoax!

Not so much.

With out-of-context quoting you can make scientists say anything. And that was the case with Climategate — it suffered from an extreme lack of context. The full context of the emails simply showed scientists discussing their work openly with each other. They show that they are merely human — they are argumentative as well as congratulatory; they get angry, with each other and the contrarians who attack them and their work.

Despite contrarians' promise to reveal the nefarious world of scheming scientists, the larger context of emails plus the peer-reviewed literature merely shows how science works. The literature gives us the finished products of scientific research, while the emails give us a glimpse of the back-and-forth between scientists as they hash out their experiments, data, and interpretations, and work toward publishing their results. This science has withstood assaults like Climategate (and the nothingburger Son of Climategate: Climategate II) because there is no nefarious world to reveal here.

But that has not stopped the contrarians from trying the same thing over and over again. The latest example is the use of Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests — which are designed to allow taxpayers to have access to certain government records — to litigate for the release of more emails. Of particular interest are the emails of one Michael E. Mann, because apparently all of climate science hinges on his work, especially the “Hockey Stick”. Show that Mann’s research is fake and the entire house of cards will crumble.

In 2011, the American Tradition Institute (ATI) brought a lawsuit against Dr. Mann and the University of Virginia (where Mann was a professor from 1999 to 2005) for the release of his emails, claiming that as a public university professor, Mann’s emails were effectively government records that should be turned over to anyone who asked under Virginia’s FOIA law. The case went all the way to the Virginia Supreme Court, which rejected this premise and blocked this email release in 2014.

What is a climate science denying outfit like ATI supposed to do? Move on to a more “compliant” state. ATI morphed into the Energy and Environment Legal Institute (E&E) and brought a lawsuit in Arizona against the University of Arizona and two of its professors: Malcolm Hughes,  a coauthor of Mann’s on the famous Hockey Stick papers, and Jonathan Overpeck, a lead author on the IPCC’s fourth and fifth Assessment Reports.

E&E claims they are bringing these lawsuits in the interests of open science, to make the workings of scientific research available to all American arm-chair “scientists”. That sounds like a lofty goal. Except they also say they want the emails released in order to “embarrass both Professors Hughes and Overpeck and the University [of Arizona].” They also have not sought data, results, or other study information — only emails. Well, that doesn’t sound very “scientific”.

One wonders, if the shoe were on the other foot, and the private correspondence and paperwork of E&E were made available, what might the public learn about this “charity.

In the end, the courts in Arizona have proved to be more compliant than in Virginia: the emails will be released. But only after hours and hours of wasted time by Drs. Hughes and Overpeck in sifting through their years of emails to cull any truly confidential information:

Dr. Hughes testified it took him ten weeks to go through all the emails, and he lost an entire research summer to reviewing old emails as well as losing a grant that expired. Dr. Overpeck testified it took him six weeks to go through everything and he was unable to use his sabbatical. (Source)

This “wasted time” is another of the unstated goals of such lawsuits: take precious time away from climate scientists’ real research by burying them in frivolous busy-work.

In a preemptive move Michael Mann has decided to publish his own copies of the emails that the U of AZ was forced to release to E&E:

Of course, I wish I did not need to do this. But since these emails will be handed over any day now to David Schnare [of E&E], it is our hope to use this exercise instead as a teaching moment and an opportunity to further public appreciation and understanding of science...

You can access Mann's emails here, (enter “mail_guest” for both username and password).

In days and weeks to come, contrarians (who think they are arm-chair scientists) might sift through the U of AZ emails in hopes of finding some nugget to embarrass Mann, Hughes, Overpeck or any of the numerous scientists they email every day in their effort to understand how the climate system works. They may uncover more “tricks” used by scientists as they describe their research. There may be strong disagreements between scientists. There may be ridicule of the contrarians who pepper scientists with amateurish questions.

But the hoped for climate change scam will still fail to materialize from this new batch of emails. Anyone reading these emails (really reading them — not just poking at them to try to find “gotcha” phrases) will find scientists merely working together to understand the climate, and trying to find the best way to communicate what they discover to the wider world.

---

Thanks to jg for the illustration.

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2DQb2DI

How did Phobos get so groovy?

The tiny Martian moon Phobos, with its enigmatic grooves and Stickney crater in the bottom right corner of the image. Image via NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona.

Phobos is a very groovy moon, literally. The surface of this moon of Mars is covered with odd linear grooves, and for a long time scientists have wondered how they formed. Now, a new study from researchers at Brown University might have solved this mystery. The researchers say that boulders rolling across Phobos’ surface probably created the markings. The new peer-reviewed findings were published in Planetary and Space Science on November 16, 2018.

The study suggests that the rolling boulders were sprayed across the surface of Phobos during the impact that created the large Stickney crater on one end of the oblong Martian moon. The team used computer models to simulate the movement of debris from the crater. As Ken Ramsley, a planetary science researcher at Brown University who led the work explained:

These grooves are a distinctive feature of Phobos, and how they formed has been debated by planetary scientists for 40 years. We think this study is another step toward zeroing in on an explanation.

Computer models showing the possible paths of debris from the large Stickney crater on Phobos. Image via Ramsley et al/Brown University.

Computer simulation showing how boulders “flew over” one area of Phobos, leaving it devoid of grooves. Image via Ramsley et al/Brown University.

The grooves are a striking feature on this tiny moon of Mars, and were first seen by the Mariner and Viking missions in the 1970s. Another theory had been that the grooves were the result of structural failure in the moon, as Mars’ gravity is very slowly tearing the moon apart.

The idea of rolling boulders isn’t new, either. In the late 1970s, planetary scientists Lionel Wilson and Jim Head had also proposed the idea that bouncing, sliding and rolling boulders from Stickney might have created the grooves. Head is a co-author on the new paper.

It is also fortunate that the impact that created Stickney crater didn’t destroy Phobos. Stickney crater is about 5.6 miles (9 km) across and Phobos itself is only 16.7 miles (27 km) at its widest point. This little moon came perilously close to being smashed into smithereens, in the event that created Stickney crater.

The new theory sounds pretty straightforward although there are still some nagging questions. Most of the grooves radiate away from Stickney crater, but some do not. Some grooves also lie on top of other grooves, showing that they were created at different times. How does that reconcile with all the grooves being created by a single impact? Other grooves even run right through Stickney crater itself. The crater must have already been there when those grooves formed, otherwise the impact that created the crater would have wiped them out in that area.

Global map of Phobos, taken by the Viking orbiter, showing the locations of all the grooves relative to other features. Image via Planetary Data System/Phil Stooke.

Despite those problems however, Ramsley found that the computer models re-created the groove patterns quite well, even though he didn’t know just what to expect:

The model is really just an experiment we run on a laptop. We put all the basic ingredients in, then we press the button and we see what happens.

The grooves tend to be parallel to each other, and according to the computer models, the boulders would have been ejected from the crater-forming impact in parallel paths as well. The boulders would also have kept rolling for much longer than on larger moons or planets, due to Phobos’ very weak gravity. If some boulders rolled all the way around the moon, that could explain why some grooves are not radially aligned to the crater. It could also explain the grooves formed on top of other grooves, since grooves that were created right after the impact were then crossed minutes to hours later by boulders completing their journeys around the moon, hence the time difference in their formation. Also, if some boulders did roll all the way around the moon, they could have rolled right across Stickney crater.

A closer view of some of the grooves from Mars Express. Image via ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum).

But what about the “bare spot” where there are no grooves? The computer simulations explain that also – the spot is a low-elevation area surrounded by a taller “lip.” The boulders would have hit that lip first, catapulting them over the region, and landing again on the other side. As Ramsley described it:

It’s like a ski jump. The boulders keep going but suddenly there’s no ground under them. They end up doing this suborbital flight over this zone.

So it seems like all of the odd features can be explained by these computer models. As Ramsley noted:

We think this makes a pretty strong case that it was this rolling boulder model accounts for most if not all the grooves on Phobos.

Bottom line: Mars’ moon Phobos is a very intriguing little world, with features that have perplexed scientists for decades. Now, thanks to advanced computer modeling from scientists at Brown University, we may finally know how this little world came to be so groovy.

Source: Origin of Phobos grooves: Testing the Stickney Crater ejecta model

Via Brown University

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2SmJcTz

The tiny Martian moon Phobos, with its enigmatic grooves and Stickney crater in the bottom right corner of the image. Image via NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Arizona.

Phobos is a very groovy moon, literally. The surface of this moon of Mars is covered with odd linear grooves, and for a long time scientists have wondered how they formed. Now, a new study from researchers at Brown University might have solved this mystery. The researchers say that boulders rolling across Phobos’ surface probably created the markings. The new peer-reviewed findings were published in Planetary and Space Science on November 16, 2018.

The study suggests that the rolling boulders were sprayed across the surface of Phobos during the impact that created the large Stickney crater on one end of the oblong Martian moon. The team used computer models to simulate the movement of debris from the crater. As Ken Ramsley, a planetary science researcher at Brown University who led the work explained:

These grooves are a distinctive feature of Phobos, and how they formed has been debated by planetary scientists for 40 years. We think this study is another step toward zeroing in on an explanation.

Computer models showing the possible paths of debris from the large Stickney crater on Phobos. Image via Ramsley et al/Brown University.

Computer simulation showing how boulders “flew over” one area of Phobos, leaving it devoid of grooves. Image via Ramsley et al/Brown University.

The grooves are a striking feature on this tiny moon of Mars, and were first seen by the Mariner and Viking missions in the 1970s. Another theory had been that the grooves were the result of structural failure in the moon, as Mars’ gravity is very slowly tearing the moon apart.

The idea of rolling boulders isn’t new, either. In the late 1970s, planetary scientists Lionel Wilson and Jim Head had also proposed the idea that bouncing, sliding and rolling boulders from Stickney might have created the grooves. Head is a co-author on the new paper.

It is also fortunate that the impact that created Stickney crater didn’t destroy Phobos. Stickney crater is about 5.6 miles (9 km) across and Phobos itself is only 16.7 miles (27 km) at its widest point. This little moon came perilously close to being smashed into smithereens, in the event that created Stickney crater.

The new theory sounds pretty straightforward although there are still some nagging questions. Most of the grooves radiate away from Stickney crater, but some do not. Some grooves also lie on top of other grooves, showing that they were created at different times. How does that reconcile with all the grooves being created by a single impact? Other grooves even run right through Stickney crater itself. The crater must have already been there when those grooves formed, otherwise the impact that created the crater would have wiped them out in that area.

Global map of Phobos, taken by the Viking orbiter, showing the locations of all the grooves relative to other features. Image via Planetary Data System/Phil Stooke.

Despite those problems however, Ramsley found that the computer models re-created the groove patterns quite well, even though he didn’t know just what to expect:

The model is really just an experiment we run on a laptop. We put all the basic ingredients in, then we press the button and we see what happens.

The grooves tend to be parallel to each other, and according to the computer models, the boulders would have been ejected from the crater-forming impact in parallel paths as well. The boulders would also have kept rolling for much longer than on larger moons or planets, due to Phobos’ very weak gravity. If some boulders rolled all the way around the moon, that could explain why some grooves are not radially aligned to the crater. It could also explain the grooves formed on top of other grooves, since grooves that were created right after the impact were then crossed minutes to hours later by boulders completing their journeys around the moon, hence the time difference in their formation. Also, if some boulders did roll all the way around the moon, they could have rolled right across Stickney crater.

A closer view of some of the grooves from Mars Express. Image via ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum).

But what about the “bare spot” where there are no grooves? The computer simulations explain that also – the spot is a low-elevation area surrounded by a taller “lip.” The boulders would have hit that lip first, catapulting them over the region, and landing again on the other side. As Ramsley described it:

It’s like a ski jump. The boulders keep going but suddenly there’s no ground under them. They end up doing this suborbital flight over this zone.

So it seems like all of the odd features can be explained by these computer models. As Ramsley noted:

We think this makes a pretty strong case that it was this rolling boulder model accounts for most if not all the grooves on Phobos.

Bottom line: Mars’ moon Phobos is a very intriguing little world, with features that have perplexed scientists for decades. Now, thanks to advanced computer modeling from scientists at Brown University, we may finally know how this little world came to be so groovy.

Source: Origin of Phobos grooves: Testing the Stickney Crater ejecta model

Via Brown University

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2SmJcTz

New research, November 19-25, 2018

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts 

Mankind

Decreased takeoff performance of aircraft due to climate change

Failure to protect beaches under slowly rising sea level (open access)

Heading for the hills: climate-driven community relocations in the Solomon Islands and Alaska provide insight for a 1.5 °C future

Quantification and evaluation of intra-urban heat-stress variability in Seoul, Korea

Characterizing heat stress on livestock using the temperature humidity index (THI)—prospects for a warmer Caribbean (open access)

Adaptation action and research in glaciated mountain systems: Are they enough to meet the challenge of climate change?

Assessing the alignment of national-level adaptation plans to the Paris Agreement

A framework for assessing community adaptation to climate change in a fisheries context

Beyond 1.5 °C: vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for Caribbean Small Island Developing States

Constraints on farmer adaptability in the Iowa-Cedar River Basin

Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein (open access)

Livestock productivity as indicator of vulnerability to climate hazards: a Mongolian case study

Simple scaling of climate inputs allows robust extrapolation of modelled wheat yield risk at a continental scale (open access)

Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections

Future climatic suitability of the Emilia-Romagna (Italy) region for grape production

Yield potential definition of the chilling requirement reveals likely underestimation of the risk of climate change on winter chill accumulation

Climate change impacts on critical international transportation assets of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS): the case of Jamaica and Saint Lucia

Comparative analyses of flood damage models in three Asian countries: towards a regional flood risk modelling

Biosphere

Climate change impacts on the distribution of venomous snakes and snakebite risk in Mozambique

Broad consistency between satellite and vegetation model estimates of Net Primary Productivity across global and regional scales

Ocean acidification increases iodine accumulation in kelp‐based coastal food webs (open access)

Changes in the biochemical and nutrient composition of seafood due to ocean acidification and warming

Resistance to temperature stress and Drupella corallivory may promote the dominance of Platygyra acuta in the marginal coral communities in Hong Kong

Environmental and physiochemical controls on coral calcification along a latitudinal temperature gradient in Western Australia (open access)

Grazer movements exacerbate grass declines during drought in an African savanna

Weather effects on birds of different size are mediated by long‐term climate and vegetation type in endangered temperate woodlands

Delayed herbivory by migratory geese increases summer‐long CO2 uptake in coastal western Alaska (open access)

Bottom‐up and top‐down effects of browning and warming on shallow lake food webs

Divergent trends in the risk of spring frost damage to trees in Europe with recent warming (open access)

Near‐future forest vulnerability to drought and fire varies across the western United States (open access)

Modelled net carbon gain responses to climate change in boreal trees: impacts of photosynthetic parameter selection and acclimation

Assessing climate change associated sea level rise impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches using drones, photogrammetry and a novel GPS system

Trends in phytoplankton phenology in the Mediterranean Sea based on ocean-colour remote sensing (open access)

The relationship between drought activity and vegetation cover in Northwest China from 1982 to 2013

Leaf area index identified as a major source of variability in modeled CO2 fertilization (open access)

The influence of climatic legacies on the distribution of dryland biocrust communities (open access)

A natural heating experiment: Phenotypic and genotypic responses of plant phenology to geothermal soil warming

FACE facts hold for multiple generations; Evidence from natural CO2 springs (open access)

Effects of elevated CO2 and phytoplankton-derived organic matter on the metabolism of bacterial communities from coastal waters (open access)

Water relations of drought-stressed temperate trees benefit from short drought-intermitting rainfall events

Environmental drivers interactively affect individual tree growth across temperate European forests (open access)

Effect of interannual precipitation variability on dryland productivity: A global synthesis (open access)

Local Adaptation, Genetic Divergence, and Experimental Selection in a Foundation Grass across the US Great Plains’ Climate Gradient

Plastic and genetic responses of a common sedge to warming have contrasting effects on carbon cycle processes (open access)

Other impacts

Climate seasonality as an essential predictor of global fire activity

The occurrence of forest fires in Mexico presents an altitudinal tendency: a geospatial analysis

New insights in the relation between climate and slope failures at high-elevation sites

Landslide susceptibility assessment at the Wuning area, China: a comparison between multi-criteria decision making, bivariate statistical and machine learning methods

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

Anomalous Anglophones? Contours of free market ideology, political polarization, and climate change attitudes in English-speaking countries, Western European and post-Communist states

Climate Policy

Designing air ticket taxes for climate change mitigation: insights from a Swedish valuation study (open access)

Energy-intensive manufacturing sectors in China: policy priorities for achieving climate mitigation and energy conservation targets

Energy production

Energy dependence behind the Iron Curtain: The Bulgarian experience

Analyzing major renewable energy sources and power stability in Taiwan by 2030

Emission savings

Limited potential of harvest index improvement to reduce methane emissions from rice paddies

Fresh‐state performance design of green concrete mixes with reduced carbon dioxide emissions

Development and analysis of strategies to facilitate the conversion of Canadian houses into net zero energy buildings

Geoengineering

Same or different? Insights on public perception and acceptance of carbon capture and storage or utilization in Germany

Climate change

Decreasing “alpine tundra” climatic type with global warming in the Tibetan Plateau

Temperature, precipitation, wind

On the simulation of sensible heat flux over the Tibetan Plateau using different thermal roughness length parameterization schemes

The role of internal variability in 21st century projections of the seasonal cycle of Northern Hemisphere surface temperature

Evaluation of air temperature and rainfall from ECMWF and NASA gridded data for southeastern Brazil

Precipitation variability and its relation to climate anomalies in the Bolivian Altiplano

Climate warming increases vertical and seasonal water temperature differences and inter-annual variability in a mountain lake (open access)

Extreme events

An interdecadal change in the interannual variability of boreal summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific around the early 1990s

Influential role of inter‐decadal explosive cyclone activity on the increased frequency of winter storm events in Hokkaido, the northernmost island of Japan

Impacts of the combined modes of the tropical Indo‐Pacific SSTAs on the tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific

A multiscalar evaluation of differential impacts of canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki on drought in China

Strong heat and cold waves in Poland in relation with the large-scale atmospheric circulation (open access)

The 2017 record marine heatwave in the Southwestern Atlantic Shelf

Future Nuisance Flooding in Norfolk, VA from Astronomical Tides and Annual to Decadal Internal Climate Variability

Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level (open access)

Concurrent droughts and hot extremes in Northwest China from 1961 to 2017

Forcings and feedbacks

Wintertime internal climate variability over Eurasia in the CESM large ensemble

Lower tropospheric ozone over the North China Plain: variability and trends revealed by IASI satellite observations for 2008–2016 (open access)

Signs of the ozone recovery based on multi sensor reanalysis of total ozone for the period 1979–2017 (open access)

A new global anthropogenic SO2 emission inventory for the last decade: a mosaic of satellite-derived and bottom-up emissions (open access)

Cryosphere

Modelling the fate of surface melt on the Larsen C Ice Shelf (open access)

Neutral equilibrium and forcing feedbacks in marine ice sheet modelling (open access)

What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing (open access)

Spatiotemporal analysis of snow cover in Iran based on topographic characteristics

Contrasting lake ice responses to winter climate indicate future variability and trends on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain (open access)

An estimate of ice wedge volume for a High Arctic polar desert environment, Fosheim Peninsula, Ellesmere Island (open access)

Hydrosphere 

Copulas‐based risk analysis for inter‐seasonal combinations of wet and dry conditions under a changing climate

The Changing Character of the California Sierra Nevada as a Natural Reservoir

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation

The Influence of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns on Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States

Connections between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and surface temperatures in winter 2018 over eastern North America (open access)

Weak El Niño and Winter Climate in the mid-high latitude Eurasia

Carbon and nitrogen cycles

Riverine particulate C and N generated at the permafrost thaw front: case study of western Siberian rivers across a 1700 km latitudinal transect (open access)

Emissions from dry inland waters are a blind spot in the global carbon cycle (open access)

What Limits Predictive Certainty of Long‐Term Carbon Uptake?

Other papers

General climate science

Shipboard automated meteorological and oceanographic system data archive: 2005–2017 (open access)

Palaeoclimatology

Cryosphere carbon dynamics control Early Toarcian global warming and sea level evolution

North Atlantic versus Global Control on Dansgaard‐Oeschger Events

Connecting the Greenland ice-core and U∕Th timescales via cosmogenic radionuclides: testing the synchroneity of Dansgaard–Oeschger events (open access)

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2ShK4Zt

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts 

Mankind

Decreased takeoff performance of aircraft due to climate change

Failure to protect beaches under slowly rising sea level (open access)

Heading for the hills: climate-driven community relocations in the Solomon Islands and Alaska provide insight for a 1.5 °C future

Quantification and evaluation of intra-urban heat-stress variability in Seoul, Korea

Characterizing heat stress on livestock using the temperature humidity index (THI)—prospects for a warmer Caribbean (open access)

Adaptation action and research in glaciated mountain systems: Are they enough to meet the challenge of climate change?

Assessing the alignment of national-level adaptation plans to the Paris Agreement

A framework for assessing community adaptation to climate change in a fisheries context

Beyond 1.5 °C: vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for Caribbean Small Island Developing States

Constraints on farmer adaptability in the Iowa-Cedar River Basin

Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein (open access)

Livestock productivity as indicator of vulnerability to climate hazards: a Mongolian case study

Simple scaling of climate inputs allows robust extrapolation of modelled wheat yield risk at a continental scale (open access)

Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections

Future climatic suitability of the Emilia-Romagna (Italy) region for grape production

Yield potential definition of the chilling requirement reveals likely underestimation of the risk of climate change on winter chill accumulation

Climate change impacts on critical international transportation assets of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS): the case of Jamaica and Saint Lucia

Comparative analyses of flood damage models in three Asian countries: towards a regional flood risk modelling

Biosphere

Climate change impacts on the distribution of venomous snakes and snakebite risk in Mozambique

Broad consistency between satellite and vegetation model estimates of Net Primary Productivity across global and regional scales

Ocean acidification increases iodine accumulation in kelp‐based coastal food webs (open access)

Changes in the biochemical and nutrient composition of seafood due to ocean acidification and warming

Resistance to temperature stress and Drupella corallivory may promote the dominance of Platygyra acuta in the marginal coral communities in Hong Kong

Environmental and physiochemical controls on coral calcification along a latitudinal temperature gradient in Western Australia (open access)

Grazer movements exacerbate grass declines during drought in an African savanna

Weather effects on birds of different size are mediated by long‐term climate and vegetation type in endangered temperate woodlands

Delayed herbivory by migratory geese increases summer‐long CO2 uptake in coastal western Alaska (open access)

Bottom‐up and top‐down effects of browning and warming on shallow lake food webs

Divergent trends in the risk of spring frost damage to trees in Europe with recent warming (open access)

Near‐future forest vulnerability to drought and fire varies across the western United States (open access)

Modelled net carbon gain responses to climate change in boreal trees: impacts of photosynthetic parameter selection and acclimation

Assessing climate change associated sea level rise impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches using drones, photogrammetry and a novel GPS system

Trends in phytoplankton phenology in the Mediterranean Sea based on ocean-colour remote sensing (open access)

The relationship between drought activity and vegetation cover in Northwest China from 1982 to 2013

Leaf area index identified as a major source of variability in modeled CO2 fertilization (open access)

The influence of climatic legacies on the distribution of dryland biocrust communities (open access)

A natural heating experiment: Phenotypic and genotypic responses of plant phenology to geothermal soil warming

FACE facts hold for multiple generations; Evidence from natural CO2 springs (open access)

Effects of elevated CO2 and phytoplankton-derived organic matter on the metabolism of bacterial communities from coastal waters (open access)

Water relations of drought-stressed temperate trees benefit from short drought-intermitting rainfall events

Environmental drivers interactively affect individual tree growth across temperate European forests (open access)

Effect of interannual precipitation variability on dryland productivity: A global synthesis (open access)

Local Adaptation, Genetic Divergence, and Experimental Selection in a Foundation Grass across the US Great Plains’ Climate Gradient

Plastic and genetic responses of a common sedge to warming have contrasting effects on carbon cycle processes (open access)

Other impacts

Climate seasonality as an essential predictor of global fire activity

The occurrence of forest fires in Mexico presents an altitudinal tendency: a geospatial analysis

New insights in the relation between climate and slope failures at high-elevation sites

Landslide susceptibility assessment at the Wuning area, China: a comparison between multi-criteria decision making, bivariate statistical and machine learning methods

Climate change mitigation

Climate change communication

Anomalous Anglophones? Contours of free market ideology, political polarization, and climate change attitudes in English-speaking countries, Western European and post-Communist states

Climate Policy

Designing air ticket taxes for climate change mitigation: insights from a Swedish valuation study (open access)

Energy-intensive manufacturing sectors in China: policy priorities for achieving climate mitigation and energy conservation targets

Energy production

Energy dependence behind the Iron Curtain: The Bulgarian experience

Analyzing major renewable energy sources and power stability in Taiwan by 2030

Emission savings

Limited potential of harvest index improvement to reduce methane emissions from rice paddies

Fresh‐state performance design of green concrete mixes with reduced carbon dioxide emissions

Development and analysis of strategies to facilitate the conversion of Canadian houses into net zero energy buildings

Geoengineering

Same or different? Insights on public perception and acceptance of carbon capture and storage or utilization in Germany

Climate change

Decreasing “alpine tundra” climatic type with global warming in the Tibetan Plateau

Temperature, precipitation, wind

On the simulation of sensible heat flux over the Tibetan Plateau using different thermal roughness length parameterization schemes

The role of internal variability in 21st century projections of the seasonal cycle of Northern Hemisphere surface temperature

Evaluation of air temperature and rainfall from ECMWF and NASA gridded data for southeastern Brazil

Precipitation variability and its relation to climate anomalies in the Bolivian Altiplano

Climate warming increases vertical and seasonal water temperature differences and inter-annual variability in a mountain lake (open access)

Extreme events

An interdecadal change in the interannual variability of boreal summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific around the early 1990s

Influential role of inter‐decadal explosive cyclone activity on the increased frequency of winter storm events in Hokkaido, the northernmost island of Japan

Impacts of the combined modes of the tropical Indo‐Pacific SSTAs on the tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific

A multiscalar evaluation of differential impacts of canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki on drought in China

Strong heat and cold waves in Poland in relation with the large-scale atmospheric circulation (open access)

The 2017 record marine heatwave in the Southwestern Atlantic Shelf

Future Nuisance Flooding in Norfolk, VA from Astronomical Tides and Annual to Decadal Internal Climate Variability

Multimodel assessment of flood characteristics in four large river basins at global warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 K above the pre-industrial level (open access)

Concurrent droughts and hot extremes in Northwest China from 1961 to 2017

Forcings and feedbacks

Wintertime internal climate variability over Eurasia in the CESM large ensemble

Lower tropospheric ozone over the North China Plain: variability and trends revealed by IASI satellite observations for 2008–2016 (open access)

Signs of the ozone recovery based on multi sensor reanalysis of total ozone for the period 1979–2017 (open access)

A new global anthropogenic SO2 emission inventory for the last decade: a mosaic of satellite-derived and bottom-up emissions (open access)

Cryosphere

Modelling the fate of surface melt on the Larsen C Ice Shelf (open access)

Neutral equilibrium and forcing feedbacks in marine ice sheet modelling (open access)

What historical landfast ice observations tell us about projected ice conditions in Arctic archipelagoes and marginal seas under anthropogenic forcing (open access)

Spatiotemporal analysis of snow cover in Iran based on topographic characteristics

Contrasting lake ice responses to winter climate indicate future variability and trends on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain (open access)

An estimate of ice wedge volume for a High Arctic polar desert environment, Fosheim Peninsula, Ellesmere Island (open access)

Hydrosphere 

Copulas‐based risk analysis for inter‐seasonal combinations of wet and dry conditions under a changing climate

The Changing Character of the California Sierra Nevada as a Natural Reservoir

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation

The Influence of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns on Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States

Connections between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and surface temperatures in winter 2018 over eastern North America (open access)

Weak El Niño and Winter Climate in the mid-high latitude Eurasia

Carbon and nitrogen cycles

Riverine particulate C and N generated at the permafrost thaw front: case study of western Siberian rivers across a 1700 km latitudinal transect (open access)

Emissions from dry inland waters are a blind spot in the global carbon cycle (open access)

What Limits Predictive Certainty of Long‐Term Carbon Uptake?

Other papers

General climate science

Shipboard automated meteorological and oceanographic system data archive: 2005–2017 (open access)

Palaeoclimatology

Cryosphere carbon dynamics control Early Toarcian global warming and sea level evolution

North Atlantic versus Global Control on Dansgaard‐Oeschger Events

Connecting the Greenland ice-core and U∕Th timescales via cosmogenic radionuclides: testing the synchroneity of Dansgaard–Oeschger events (open access)

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2ShK4Zt