2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #43

Story of the Week... Editorial of the Week... Toon of the Week... SkS in the News... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Reviews... Poster of the Week... SkS Week in Review... 

Story of the Week...

Coal-fired Power Plant Costrip MT

A coal plant in Colstrip, Mont. Scientists say countries have put off reducing carbon emissions for so long that even a breakneck shift toward clean energy would most likely not be enough. Credit: Janie Osborne for The New York Times

With time running out to avoid dangerous global warming, the nation’s leading scientific body on Wednesday urged the federal government to begin a research program focused on developing technologies that can remove vast quantities of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere in order to help slow climate change.

The 369-page report, written by a panel of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, underscores an important shift. For decades, experts said that nations could prevent large temperature increases mainly by reducing reliance on fossil fuels and moving to cleaner sources like solar, wind and nuclear power.

But at this point, nations have delayed so long in cutting their carbon dioxide emissions that even a breakneck shift toward clean energy would most likely not be enough. According to a landmark scientific report issued by the United Nations this month, taking out a big chunk of the carbon dioxide already loaded into the atmosphere may be necessary to avoid significant further warming, even though researchers haven’t yet figured out how to do so economically, or at sufficient scale.

And we’ll have to do it fast. To meet the climate goals laid out under the Paris Agreement, humanity may have to start removing around 10 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the air each year by midcentury, in addition to reducing industrial emissions, said Stephen W. Pacala, a Princeton climate scientist who led the panel. That’s nearly as much carbon as all the world’s forests and soils currently absorb each year.

Scientists Push for a Crash Program to Scrub Carbon From the Air by Brad Plumer, Climate, New York Times, Oct 24, 2018 

Editorial of the Week...

The biggest crime scene on the planet is the planet. We know the earth is warming, but who or what is causing it?

Carbon Emissions

Credit: Emilia Miękisz

The latest report from the world’s climate scientists has made clear the size of the challenge if the world is to stay below the global warming limit hoped for in the Paris climate agreement. Unfortunately, with current trends we are likely to cross this threshold within the next two decades because we are already two-thirds of the way there.

But how do we know what is driving these climate trends? It comes down to the same kind of detective work that typifies a crime scene investigation, only here we are dealing with a case that encompasses the whole world. Let me give you my view, which does not necessarily represent the position of NASA or the federal government.

For the past 100 years we have documented good, independently confirmed observations of change at the surface of the planet, and for the past 40 years satellites and comprehensive measuring efforts have provided a much fuller view of changes throughout the earth system. These observations show clearly that among other things, the surface of the planet has warmed, the upper atmosphere has cooled, the oceans are gaining an enormous amount of heat, sea level is rising, Arctic ice has greatly receded and glaciers around the world are in retreat.

Scientists Push for a Crash Program to Scrub Carbon From the Air by Brad Plumer, Climate, New York Times, Oct 24, 2018 

Toon of the Week...

2018 Toon 43 

SkS in the News...

The SkS Graphic Human vs. Natural Contributions to Global Warming is prominently featured by David Roberts in his article Why conservatives keep gaslighting the nation about climate change published in the Energy & Environment section of Vox on Oct 23, 2018.

Global Warming Attribution

Coming Soon on SkS...

  • Canada passed a carbon tax that will give most Canadians more money (Dana)
  • Eulogy for Climate Consensus - the 97% (Dana)
  • China's GHG emissions (Riduna)
  • Climate Impacts (ATTP)
  • New research this week (Ari)
  • 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #44 (John Hartz)
  • 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #44 (John Hartz)

Poster of the Week...

2018 Poster 43 

SkS Week in Review... 



from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2Rle5qH

Story of the Week... Editorial of the Week... Toon of the Week... SkS in the News... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Reviews... Poster of the Week... SkS Week in Review... 

Story of the Week...

Coal-fired Power Plant Costrip MT

A coal plant in Colstrip, Mont. Scientists say countries have put off reducing carbon emissions for so long that even a breakneck shift toward clean energy would most likely not be enough. Credit: Janie Osborne for The New York Times

With time running out to avoid dangerous global warming, the nation’s leading scientific body on Wednesday urged the federal government to begin a research program focused on developing technologies that can remove vast quantities of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere in order to help slow climate change.

The 369-page report, written by a panel of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, underscores an important shift. For decades, experts said that nations could prevent large temperature increases mainly by reducing reliance on fossil fuels and moving to cleaner sources like solar, wind and nuclear power.

But at this point, nations have delayed so long in cutting their carbon dioxide emissions that even a breakneck shift toward clean energy would most likely not be enough. According to a landmark scientific report issued by the United Nations this month, taking out a big chunk of the carbon dioxide already loaded into the atmosphere may be necessary to avoid significant further warming, even though researchers haven’t yet figured out how to do so economically, or at sufficient scale.

And we’ll have to do it fast. To meet the climate goals laid out under the Paris Agreement, humanity may have to start removing around 10 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the air each year by midcentury, in addition to reducing industrial emissions, said Stephen W. Pacala, a Princeton climate scientist who led the panel. That’s nearly as much carbon as all the world’s forests and soils currently absorb each year.

Scientists Push for a Crash Program to Scrub Carbon From the Air by Brad Plumer, Climate, New York Times, Oct 24, 2018 

Editorial of the Week...

The biggest crime scene on the planet is the planet. We know the earth is warming, but who or what is causing it?

Carbon Emissions

Credit: Emilia Miękisz

The latest report from the world’s climate scientists has made clear the size of the challenge if the world is to stay below the global warming limit hoped for in the Paris climate agreement. Unfortunately, with current trends we are likely to cross this threshold within the next two decades because we are already two-thirds of the way there.

But how do we know what is driving these climate trends? It comes down to the same kind of detective work that typifies a crime scene investigation, only here we are dealing with a case that encompasses the whole world. Let me give you my view, which does not necessarily represent the position of NASA or the federal government.

For the past 100 years we have documented good, independently confirmed observations of change at the surface of the planet, and for the past 40 years satellites and comprehensive measuring efforts have provided a much fuller view of changes throughout the earth system. These observations show clearly that among other things, the surface of the planet has warmed, the upper atmosphere has cooled, the oceans are gaining an enormous amount of heat, sea level is rising, Arctic ice has greatly receded and glaciers around the world are in retreat.

Scientists Push for a Crash Program to Scrub Carbon From the Air by Brad Plumer, Climate, New York Times, Oct 24, 2018 

Toon of the Week...

2018 Toon 43 

SkS in the News...

The SkS Graphic Human vs. Natural Contributions to Global Warming is prominently featured by David Roberts in his article Why conservatives keep gaslighting the nation about climate change published in the Energy & Environment section of Vox on Oct 23, 2018.

Global Warming Attribution

Coming Soon on SkS...

  • Canada passed a carbon tax that will give most Canadians more money (Dana)
  • Eulogy for Climate Consensus - the 97% (Dana)
  • China's GHG emissions (Riduna)
  • Climate Impacts (ATTP)
  • New research this week (Ari)
  • 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #44 (John Hartz)
  • 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #44 (John Hartz)

Poster of the Week...

2018 Poster 43 

SkS Week in Review... 



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Check out these 2 rectangular icebergs

This image of a tabular iceberg was taken while flying past the berg during an Operation IceBridge flight over the northern Antarctic Peninsula on October 16, 2018. Image via NASA/Jeremy Harbeck.

The 2019 lunar calendars are here! Order yours before they’re gone. Makes a great gift.

On October 16, 2018, as NASA’s Operation Icebridge was flying over the northern Antarctic Peninsula doing a routine aerial survey of polar ice, senior support scientist Jeremy Harbeck spotted a very sharp-angled, tabular iceberg – that’s a type of iceberg that’s broad and flat – floating among sea ice just off of the Larsen C ice shelf.

Tabular icebergs typically break off of ice shelves, which are tabular bodies of thick ice. When there is a clean calve, or break-off, of the iceberg, the angles can be close to 90 degrees. Harbeck said in a statement:

I thought it was pretty interesting; I often see icebergs with relatively straight edges, but I’ve not really seen one before with two corners at such right angles like this one had.

The rectangular iceberg appeared to be freshly calved from Antarctica’s Larsen C ice shelf, which in July 2017 released the massive A68 iceberg, a chunk of ice about the size of the state of Delaware.

In a different photo (below), on the same day, Harbeck captured both the edge of that iceberg, and a slightly-less-rectangular iceberg. That image also captures A68 in the distance.

This photo, also taken during Operation IceBridge’s flight over the northern Antarctic Peninsula on October 16, 2018, shows another relatively rectangular iceberg near the above sharp-cornered berg, which is visible behind the plane’s outboard engine. The huge, tabular iceberg A68 is visible in the distance. Image via Jeremy Harbeck/NASA.

Harbeck said:

I was actually more interested in capturing the A68 iceberg that we were about to fly over, but I thought this rectangular iceberg was visually interesting and fairly photogenic, so on a lark, I just took a couple photos.

Bottom line: Two photos from NASA’s Operation IceBridge of rectangular icebergs in Antarctica.

Via NASA



from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2Awv97L

This image of a tabular iceberg was taken while flying past the berg during an Operation IceBridge flight over the northern Antarctic Peninsula on October 16, 2018. Image via NASA/Jeremy Harbeck.

The 2019 lunar calendars are here! Order yours before they’re gone. Makes a great gift.

On October 16, 2018, as NASA’s Operation Icebridge was flying over the northern Antarctic Peninsula doing a routine aerial survey of polar ice, senior support scientist Jeremy Harbeck spotted a very sharp-angled, tabular iceberg – that’s a type of iceberg that’s broad and flat – floating among sea ice just off of the Larsen C ice shelf.

Tabular icebergs typically break off of ice shelves, which are tabular bodies of thick ice. When there is a clean calve, or break-off, of the iceberg, the angles can be close to 90 degrees. Harbeck said in a statement:

I thought it was pretty interesting; I often see icebergs with relatively straight edges, but I’ve not really seen one before with two corners at such right angles like this one had.

The rectangular iceberg appeared to be freshly calved from Antarctica’s Larsen C ice shelf, which in July 2017 released the massive A68 iceberg, a chunk of ice about the size of the state of Delaware.

In a different photo (below), on the same day, Harbeck captured both the edge of that iceberg, and a slightly-less-rectangular iceberg. That image also captures A68 in the distance.

This photo, also taken during Operation IceBridge’s flight over the northern Antarctic Peninsula on October 16, 2018, shows another relatively rectangular iceberg near the above sharp-cornered berg, which is visible behind the plane’s outboard engine. The huge, tabular iceberg A68 is visible in the distance. Image via Jeremy Harbeck/NASA.

Harbeck said:

I was actually more interested in capturing the A68 iceberg that we were about to fly over, but I thought this rectangular iceberg was visually interesting and fairly photogenic, so on a lark, I just took a couple photos.

Bottom line: Two photos from NASA’s Operation IceBridge of rectangular icebergs in Antarctica.

Via NASA



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Did scientists confirm Earth’s dust cloud satellites?

Diagram showing the Lagrangian points of the Earth–moon system. If they exist, Kordylewski clouds lie in the regions of L4 and L5. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

The Royal Astronomical Society (RAS) said this week (October 25, 2018) that astronomers may now have confirmed the existence of two elusive dust clouds, orbiting Earth much as our moon orbits it, at about the moon’s distance. They are known as Kordylewski clouds, first reported by and named for Polish astronomer Kazimierz Kordylewski in 1961. If they exist, Earth’s dust cloud satellites are exceptionally faint, so that their existence is controversial. The RAS is pointing to two new papers about the Kordylewski clouds in its peer-reviewed journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. It said in a statement that a team of Hungarian astronomers and physicists may have confirmed the clouds just where Kordylewski said they would be, in semi-stable points just 250,000 miles (400,000 km) from Earth.

For comparison, the moon’s average distance is 238,900 miles (385,000 km) from Earth.

View larger. | Artist’s concept of a Kordylewski cloud in the night sky at the time of the observations. The brightness is greatly enhanced; we wouldn’t really see this cloud. Image via G. Horváth/RAS.

If they exist, the Kordylewski clouds lie at two special points in the Earth-moon system. These points – known as Lagrangian or Lagrange points – are known to be relatively stable, gravitationally. Objects, even dust, drifting near these points would tend to move neither toward the Earth nor toward the moon. They’d tend to stay put, moving ahead of and behind the moon in orbit. The RAS explained:

Two of these so-called Lagrange points, L4 and L5, form an equal-sided triangle with the Earth and moon, and move around the Earth as the moon moves along its orbit.

L4 and L5 are not completely stable, as they are disturbed by the gravitational pull of the sun. Nonetheless they are thought to be locations where interplanetary dust might collect, at least temporarily. Kordylewski observed two nearby clusters of dust at L5 in 1961, with various reports since then, but their extreme faintness makes them difficult to detect and many scientists doubted their existence.

The 2019 lunar calendars are here! Order yours before they’re gone. Makes a great gift.

In a paper earlier in 2018, the Hungarian team, led by Gábor Horváth of Eötvös Loránd University, modeled the Kordylewski clouds to assess how they form and how they might be detected. The researchers were interested in their appearance using polarizing filters, similar to those found on some types of sunglasses. The RAS explained:

Scattered or reflected light is always more or less polarized, depending on the angle of scattering or reflection.

AFter they determined what to look for, the researchers then set out to find the dust clouds. They set up a linearly polarizing filter system, attached to a camera lens and CCD detector, at Slíz-Balogh’s private observatory in Hungary (Badacsonytördemic).

Then the scientists took exposures of the purported location of the Kordylewski cloud at the L5 point.

The images they obtained show polarised light reflected from dust, extending well outside the field of view of the camera lens. The RAS said:

The observed pattern matches predictions made by the same group of researchers in an earlier paper and is consistent with the earliest observations of the Kordylewski clouds six decades ago.

Horváth’s group were able to rule out optical artefacts and other effects, meaning that the presence of the dust cloud is confirmed.

Pattern of the angle of polarization of the sky around the L5 Lagrange point of the Earth-moon system. Image acquired August 19, 2017. The position of the L5 point is shown by a white dot. In this picture the central region of the Kordylewski dust cloud is visible (bright red pixels). The straight tilted lines are traces of satellites. Image via J. Slíz-Balogh/RAS.

Mosaic pattern of the angle of polarization around the L5 point (white dot) of the Earth-moon system. The five rectangular windows correspond to the fields of view of the imaging polarimetric telescope with which the polarization patterns of the Kordylewski dust cloud were measured. Image via J. Slíz-Balogh/RAS.

Judit Slíz-Balogh – who collaborated on this problem with the other scientists and is a lead author on one of the papers – commented:

The Kordylewski clouds are two of the toughest objects to find, and though they are as close to Earth as the moon are largely overlooked by researchers in astronomy. It is intriguing to confirm that our planet has dusty pseudo-satellites in orbit alongside our lunar neighbor.

The RAS said:

Given their stability, the L4 and L5 points are seen as potential sites for orbiting space probes, and as transfer stations for missions exploring the wider solar system. There are also proposals to store pollutants at the two points.

Future research will look at L4 and L5, and the associated Kordylewski clouds, to understand how stable they really are, and whether their dust presents any kind of threat to equipment and future astronauts alike.

Kazimierz Kordylewski proposed the existence of Earth’s dust cloud satellites in 1961, and astronomers have been arguing about them since then. Have they now been confirmed? This 1964 image is via Wikimedia Commons.

Bottom line: Researchers say they have confirmed the existence of the Kordylewski dust clouds, which orbit at the L4 and L5 points in the Earth-moon system. In other words, the dust clouds orbit approximately in the moon’s orbit. They move ahead of and behind the moon in orbit.

Source #1: Celestial mechanics and polarization optics of the Kordylewski dust cloud in the Earth-Moon Lagrange point L5 – Part I. Three-dimensional celestial mechanical modelling of dust cloud formation

Source #2: Celestial mechanics and polarization optics of the Kordylewski dust cloud in the Earth-Moon Lagrange point L5. Part II. Imaging polarimetric observation: new evidence for the existence of Kordylewski dust cloud

Via RAS



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Diagram showing the Lagrangian points of the Earth–moon system. If they exist, Kordylewski clouds lie in the regions of L4 and L5. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

The Royal Astronomical Society (RAS) said this week (October 25, 2018) that astronomers may now have confirmed the existence of two elusive dust clouds, orbiting Earth much as our moon orbits it, at about the moon’s distance. They are known as Kordylewski clouds, first reported by and named for Polish astronomer Kazimierz Kordylewski in 1961. If they exist, Earth’s dust cloud satellites are exceptionally faint, so that their existence is controversial. The RAS is pointing to two new papers about the Kordylewski clouds in its peer-reviewed journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. It said in a statement that a team of Hungarian astronomers and physicists may have confirmed the clouds just where Kordylewski said they would be, in semi-stable points just 250,000 miles (400,000 km) from Earth.

For comparison, the moon’s average distance is 238,900 miles (385,000 km) from Earth.

View larger. | Artist’s concept of a Kordylewski cloud in the night sky at the time of the observations. The brightness is greatly enhanced; we wouldn’t really see this cloud. Image via G. Horváth/RAS.

If they exist, the Kordylewski clouds lie at two special points in the Earth-moon system. These points – known as Lagrangian or Lagrange points – are known to be relatively stable, gravitationally. Objects, even dust, drifting near these points would tend to move neither toward the Earth nor toward the moon. They’d tend to stay put, moving ahead of and behind the moon in orbit. The RAS explained:

Two of these so-called Lagrange points, L4 and L5, form an equal-sided triangle with the Earth and moon, and move around the Earth as the moon moves along its orbit.

L4 and L5 are not completely stable, as they are disturbed by the gravitational pull of the sun. Nonetheless they are thought to be locations where interplanetary dust might collect, at least temporarily. Kordylewski observed two nearby clusters of dust at L5 in 1961, with various reports since then, but their extreme faintness makes them difficult to detect and many scientists doubted their existence.

The 2019 lunar calendars are here! Order yours before they’re gone. Makes a great gift.

In a paper earlier in 2018, the Hungarian team, led by Gábor Horváth of Eötvös Loránd University, modeled the Kordylewski clouds to assess how they form and how they might be detected. The researchers were interested in their appearance using polarizing filters, similar to those found on some types of sunglasses. The RAS explained:

Scattered or reflected light is always more or less polarized, depending on the angle of scattering or reflection.

AFter they determined what to look for, the researchers then set out to find the dust clouds. They set up a linearly polarizing filter system, attached to a camera lens and CCD detector, at Slíz-Balogh’s private observatory in Hungary (Badacsonytördemic).

Then the scientists took exposures of the purported location of the Kordylewski cloud at the L5 point.

The images they obtained show polarised light reflected from dust, extending well outside the field of view of the camera lens. The RAS said:

The observed pattern matches predictions made by the same group of researchers in an earlier paper and is consistent with the earliest observations of the Kordylewski clouds six decades ago.

Horváth’s group were able to rule out optical artefacts and other effects, meaning that the presence of the dust cloud is confirmed.

Pattern of the angle of polarization of the sky around the L5 Lagrange point of the Earth-moon system. Image acquired August 19, 2017. The position of the L5 point is shown by a white dot. In this picture the central region of the Kordylewski dust cloud is visible (bright red pixels). The straight tilted lines are traces of satellites. Image via J. Slíz-Balogh/RAS.

Mosaic pattern of the angle of polarization around the L5 point (white dot) of the Earth-moon system. The five rectangular windows correspond to the fields of view of the imaging polarimetric telescope with which the polarization patterns of the Kordylewski dust cloud were measured. Image via J. Slíz-Balogh/RAS.

Judit Slíz-Balogh – who collaborated on this problem with the other scientists and is a lead author on one of the papers – commented:

The Kordylewski clouds are two of the toughest objects to find, and though they are as close to Earth as the moon are largely overlooked by researchers in astronomy. It is intriguing to confirm that our planet has dusty pseudo-satellites in orbit alongside our lunar neighbor.

The RAS said:

Given their stability, the L4 and L5 points are seen as potential sites for orbiting space probes, and as transfer stations for missions exploring the wider solar system. There are also proposals to store pollutants at the two points.

Future research will look at L4 and L5, and the associated Kordylewski clouds, to understand how stable they really are, and whether their dust presents any kind of threat to equipment and future astronauts alike.

Kazimierz Kordylewski proposed the existence of Earth’s dust cloud satellites in 1961, and astronomers have been arguing about them since then. Have they now been confirmed? This 1964 image is via Wikimedia Commons.

Bottom line: Researchers say they have confirmed the existence of the Kordylewski dust clouds, which orbit at the L4 and L5 points in the Earth-moon system. In other words, the dust clouds orbit approximately in the moon’s orbit. They move ahead of and behind the moon in orbit.

Source #1: Celestial mechanics and polarization optics of the Kordylewski dust cloud in the Earth-Moon Lagrange point L5 – Part I. Three-dimensional celestial mechanical modelling of dust cloud formation

Source #2: Celestial mechanics and polarization optics of the Kordylewski dust cloud in the Earth-Moon Lagrange point L5. Part II. Imaging polarimetric observation: new evidence for the existence of Kordylewski dust cloud

Via RAS



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NOAA issues 2018-19 Winter Weather Outlook for US

The 2019 lunar calendars are here! Order yours before they’re gone. Makes a great gift.

On October 18, 2018, NOAA issued its annual Winter Weather Outlook for the United Sates for the months of December through February. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a mild 2018-19 winter could be in store for much of the U.S., with above-average temperatures most likely across the northern and western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii.

Additionally, El Niño has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing this year. Mike Halpert is deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. He said in a statement:

We expect El Niño to be in place in late fall to early winter. Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.

El Niño is an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During the winter, typical El Niño conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.

Image via NOAA.

Here are some highlights from the 2018-19 U.S. Winter Outlook:

Temperature

– Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.

– The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

– No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.

Winter Outlook 2018-19 map for temperature. Image via NOAA.

Precipitation

– Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the U.S., and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter.

– Drier-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the northern Rockies and Northern Plains, as well as in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.

Winter Outlook 2018-19 map for precipitation. Image via NOAA.

Drought

Find out more the drought outlook here.

Drought conditions are likely to persist across portions of the Southwest, Southern California, the central Great Basin, central Rockies, Northern Plains and portions of the interior Pacific Northwest.

Drought conditions are anticipated to improve in areas throughout Arizona and New Mexico, southern sections of Utah and Colorado, the coastal Pacific Northwest and the Central Plains.

The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available on November 15.

Bottom line: NOAA issued its annual Winter Weather Outlook for The U.s. for the 2018-19 season.

Via NOAA



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The 2019 lunar calendars are here! Order yours before they’re gone. Makes a great gift.

On October 18, 2018, NOAA issued its annual Winter Weather Outlook for the United Sates for the months of December through February. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a mild 2018-19 winter could be in store for much of the U.S., with above-average temperatures most likely across the northern and western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii.

Additionally, El Niño has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing this year. Mike Halpert is deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. He said in a statement:

We expect El Niño to be in place in late fall to early winter. Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.

El Niño is an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During the winter, typical El Niño conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.

Image via NOAA.

Here are some highlights from the 2018-19 U.S. Winter Outlook:

Temperature

– Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.

– The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

– No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.

Winter Outlook 2018-19 map for temperature. Image via NOAA.

Precipitation

– Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the U.S., and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter.

– Drier-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the northern Rockies and Northern Plains, as well as in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.

Winter Outlook 2018-19 map for precipitation. Image via NOAA.

Drought

Find out more the drought outlook here.

Drought conditions are likely to persist across portions of the Southwest, Southern California, the central Great Basin, central Rockies, Northern Plains and portions of the interior Pacific Northwest.

Drought conditions are anticipated to improve in areas throughout Arizona and New Mexico, southern sections of Utah and Colorado, the coastal Pacific Northwest and the Central Plains.

The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available on November 15.

Bottom line: NOAA issued its annual Winter Weather Outlook for The U.s. for the 2018-19 season.

Via NOAA



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Meditating under the light of Jupiter

Photo by Stefan R. Nilsson of Digitaliz.se.

Jupiter is drifting into the sunset glare in late October and early November. It’ll be gone for until the final days of 2018, moving behind the sun from our earthly vantagepoint. Stefan Nilsson caught Jupiter a few weeks ago, when it appeared higher in the western sky after sunset. He wrote:

Place of solitude – meditating under the light of Jupiter.

This is an outdoor meditation place located in Backåkra Naturreservat, Skåne, Sweden.

Visit Stefan R. Nilsson at Digitaliz.se

Want to see Jupiter? You might be able to glimpse it, with difficulty, in late October and early November. Here’s how to watch for Jupiter and Mercury.

Bottom line: Photo of Jupiter, taken from Sweden, in October, 2018.

Read more: EarthSky’s guide to the bright planets



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Photo by Stefan R. Nilsson of Digitaliz.se.

Jupiter is drifting into the sunset glare in late October and early November. It’ll be gone for until the final days of 2018, moving behind the sun from our earthly vantagepoint. Stefan Nilsson caught Jupiter a few weeks ago, when it appeared higher in the western sky after sunset. He wrote:

Place of solitude – meditating under the light of Jupiter.

This is an outdoor meditation place located in Backåkra Naturreservat, Skåne, Sweden.

Visit Stefan R. Nilsson at Digitaliz.se

Want to see Jupiter? You might be able to glimpse it, with difficulty, in late October and early November. Here’s how to watch for Jupiter and Mercury.

Bottom line: Photo of Jupiter, taken from Sweden, in October, 2018.

Read more: EarthSky’s guide to the bright planets



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Watch for Mercury and Jupiter in late October

During the last several days of October, 2018, the planets Mercury and Jupiter appear quite close together on the sky’s dome. Will you see them? Well, maybe. The Southern Hemisphere has a huge advantage over the Northern Hemisphere for witnessing this celestial attraction in the deepening glow of evening twilight. And, even from southerly latitudes, Mercury and Jupiter sit rather low in the sky at sunset. For all of us, they soon follow the sun beneath the horizon.

Our sky chart at top is for around 35 degrees south latitude. All places north of the tropic of Cancer will have difficulty catching Mercury and Jupiter (especially Mercury because it is fainter) after sunset … although the EarthSky community has surprised us before with seeing objects near the sun and may well surprise us again.

Given an unobstructed horizon at 35 degrees north latitude, Mercury struggles to stay out as long as one hour after the sun, whereas Jupiter stays out for about one hour and 10 minutes after sunset.

In the days ahead, Mercury will set a little later and Jupiter a little earlier.

Given a level horizon at 35 degrees south latitude, Mercury and Jupiter stay out for a whopping 1 3/4 hours after the sun. In the days ahead – just as in the Northern Hemisphere – Mercury will set a little later and Jupiter a little earlier.

Want to know when the sun, Mercury and Jupiter set in your sky? Click here if you live in the US or Canada, or click here if you live elsewhere worldwide.

Image via Solar System Live shows the solar system, as viewed from the north side, for late October 2018. Want to know planetary symbols? Click here. The portion of each orbit north of the plane of the ecliptic is drawn in blue, the portion to the south in green.

Jupiter is the brighter of these two worlds, shining some four times more brilliantly than Mercury. Still, Mercury is bright, too. It’s brighter than a 1st-magnitude star. Given favorable seeing conditions, Mercury can be seen with the eye alone. However, Mercury’s luster is often tarnished by the glare of evening twilight. That’s certainly the case now!

Do you have binoculars? If you see Jupiter but not Mercury, aim your binoculars at Jupiter and you might be able to view Mercury in the same binocular field with Jupiter. These two worlds should fit inside a single binocular field for several days to come.

To increase your chances of spotting Mercury and Jupiter, find an unobstructed horizon in the direction of sunset. Better yet, stand atop a balcony or hilltop to see a little more sky.

If you live at northerly latitudes, binoculars are likely your best shot.

Bottom line: Best of luck on your search for Mercury and Jupiter in late October, 2018. The pair will be exceedingly low in the west after sunset.



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During the last several days of October, 2018, the planets Mercury and Jupiter appear quite close together on the sky’s dome. Will you see them? Well, maybe. The Southern Hemisphere has a huge advantage over the Northern Hemisphere for witnessing this celestial attraction in the deepening glow of evening twilight. And, even from southerly latitudes, Mercury and Jupiter sit rather low in the sky at sunset. For all of us, they soon follow the sun beneath the horizon.

Our sky chart at top is for around 35 degrees south latitude. All places north of the tropic of Cancer will have difficulty catching Mercury and Jupiter (especially Mercury because it is fainter) after sunset … although the EarthSky community has surprised us before with seeing objects near the sun and may well surprise us again.

Given an unobstructed horizon at 35 degrees north latitude, Mercury struggles to stay out as long as one hour after the sun, whereas Jupiter stays out for about one hour and 10 minutes after sunset.

In the days ahead, Mercury will set a little later and Jupiter a little earlier.

Given a level horizon at 35 degrees south latitude, Mercury and Jupiter stay out for a whopping 1 3/4 hours after the sun. In the days ahead – just as in the Northern Hemisphere – Mercury will set a little later and Jupiter a little earlier.

Want to know when the sun, Mercury and Jupiter set in your sky? Click here if you live in the US or Canada, or click here if you live elsewhere worldwide.

Image via Solar System Live shows the solar system, as viewed from the north side, for late October 2018. Want to know planetary symbols? Click here. The portion of each orbit north of the plane of the ecliptic is drawn in blue, the portion to the south in green.

Jupiter is the brighter of these two worlds, shining some four times more brilliantly than Mercury. Still, Mercury is bright, too. It’s brighter than a 1st-magnitude star. Given favorable seeing conditions, Mercury can be seen with the eye alone. However, Mercury’s luster is often tarnished by the glare of evening twilight. That’s certainly the case now!

Do you have binoculars? If you see Jupiter but not Mercury, aim your binoculars at Jupiter and you might be able to view Mercury in the same binocular field with Jupiter. These two worlds should fit inside a single binocular field for several days to come.

To increase your chances of spotting Mercury and Jupiter, find an unobstructed horizon in the direction of sunset. Better yet, stand atop a balcony or hilltop to see a little more sky.

If you live at northerly latitudes, binoculars are likely your best shot.

Bottom line: Best of luck on your search for Mercury and Jupiter in late October, 2018. The pair will be exceedingly low in the west after sunset.



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2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #43

A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week including,,, 

Editor's Pick

They Know Seas Are Rising, but They’re Not Abandoning Their Beloved Cape Cod

Lifelong residents are building higher with each flood. But while they deal with climate change, some say they aren’t sure what to believe about the cause.

 Cape Code

Sea level is rising at an accelerated pace along the Mid-Atlantic coast, from Cape Hatteras to north of Boston, while land in some of those areas is sinking. Residents can try to adapt or face more frequent flooding. Credit: Robert Scott Button 

"It flooded in early January, and then it happened again two or three months later," says Matt Teague of Barnstable, Mass., about the slew of storms that hit Cape Cod in the winter of 2017. "We're like, what are we doing here?" he says, opening his arms skyward.

It is now the peak of summer as I stand with Matt in the seaside community of Blish Point at the front door of the house he owns—a house that's about to be demolished. Matt, 43, with a trim graying beard and a belt buckle in the shape of a fishhook, is the owner of REEF Design & Build, which works all across Cape Cod. He bought the house with his brother and father more than 10 years ago as an investment. Blish Point, an area where native fishermen once laid out their nets to dry, today contains a couple hundred homes nestled between the mouth of Barnstable Harbor and the verdant marsh of Maraspin Creek. Some of the homes are upscale; others are simple cottages. The Teague house, one of the simple cottages, was ruined by flooding: five major storms in the past three years alone have struck this area, and two of the four nor'easters last winter inundated the ground-level home.

Matt pushes his sunglasses atop his head, revealing a pale strip of untanned skin along his temple, as he stretches out his hand 2 feet above the door's threshold to show me where the water rose to during the storms. Over his shoulder, a hungry excavator sits ready to begin its work as Matt's extended family arrives, setting up lawn chairs across the street from the doomed house, joking about who forgot the popcorn. They have come to watch the carnage.

In spite of his own rhetorical question, after the demolition, Matt is going to rebuild—not elsewhere, but right here, only higher. 

They Know Seas Are Rising, but They’re Not Abandoning Their Beloved Cape Cod by Meera Subramanian, InsideClimate News, Oct 26, 2018 

Links posted on Facebook

Sun Oct 21, 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018

Wed Oct 24, 2018

Thur Oct 25, 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018



from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2Oa1fda
A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week including,,, 

Editor's Pick

They Know Seas Are Rising, but They’re Not Abandoning Their Beloved Cape Cod

Lifelong residents are building higher with each flood. But while they deal with climate change, some say they aren’t sure what to believe about the cause.

 Cape Code

Sea level is rising at an accelerated pace along the Mid-Atlantic coast, from Cape Hatteras to north of Boston, while land in some of those areas is sinking. Residents can try to adapt or face more frequent flooding. Credit: Robert Scott Button 

"It flooded in early January, and then it happened again two or three months later," says Matt Teague of Barnstable, Mass., about the slew of storms that hit Cape Cod in the winter of 2017. "We're like, what are we doing here?" he says, opening his arms skyward.

It is now the peak of summer as I stand with Matt in the seaside community of Blish Point at the front door of the house he owns—a house that's about to be demolished. Matt, 43, with a trim graying beard and a belt buckle in the shape of a fishhook, is the owner of REEF Design & Build, which works all across Cape Cod. He bought the house with his brother and father more than 10 years ago as an investment. Blish Point, an area where native fishermen once laid out their nets to dry, today contains a couple hundred homes nestled between the mouth of Barnstable Harbor and the verdant marsh of Maraspin Creek. Some of the homes are upscale; others are simple cottages. The Teague house, one of the simple cottages, was ruined by flooding: five major storms in the past three years alone have struck this area, and two of the four nor'easters last winter inundated the ground-level home.

Matt pushes his sunglasses atop his head, revealing a pale strip of untanned skin along his temple, as he stretches out his hand 2 feet above the door's threshold to show me where the water rose to during the storms. Over his shoulder, a hungry excavator sits ready to begin its work as Matt's extended family arrives, setting up lawn chairs across the street from the doomed house, joking about who forgot the popcorn. They have come to watch the carnage.

In spite of his own rhetorical question, after the demolition, Matt is going to rebuild—not elsewhere, but right here, only higher. 

They Know Seas Are Rising, but They’re Not Abandoning Their Beloved Cape Cod by Meera Subramanian, InsideClimate News, Oct 26, 2018 

Links posted on Facebook

Sun Oct 21, 2018

Mon Oct 22, 2018

Tue Oct 23, 2018

Wed Oct 24, 2018

Thur Oct 25, 2018

Fri Oct 26, 2018

Sat Oct 27, 2018



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