2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #21

A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week.

Editor's Pick

Climate change may lead to bigger atmospheric rivers

Atmospheric River 2017 NASA/JPL-Caltech

In early 2017, the Western United States experienced rain and flooding from a series of storms flowing to America on multiple streams of moist air, each individually known as an atmospheric river. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech 

A new NASA-led study shows that climate change is likely to intensify extreme weather events known as atmospheric rivers across most of the globe by the end of this century, while slightly reducing their number.

The new study projects atmospheric rivers will be significantly longer and wider than the ones we observe today, leading to more frequent atmospheric river conditions in affected areas.

"The results project that in a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate, there will be about 10 percent fewer atmospheric rivers globally by the end of the 21st century," said the study's lead author, Duane Waliser, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "However, because the findings project that the atmospheric rivers will be, on average, about 25 percent wider and longer, the global frequency of atmospheric river conditions — like heavy rain and strong winds — will actually increase by about 50 percent."

The results also show that the frequency of the most intense atmospheric river storms is projected to nearly double.

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow jets of air that carry huge amounts of water vapor from the tropics to Earth's continents and polar regions. These "rivers in the sky" typically range from 250 to 375 miles (400 to 600 kilometers) wide and carry as much water — in the form of water vapor — as about 25 Mississippi Rivers. When an atmospheric river makes landfall, particularly against mountainous terrain (such as the Sierra Nevada and the Andes), it releases much of that water vapor in the form of rain or snow.

These storm systems are common — on average, there are about 11 present on Earth at any time. In many areas of the globe, they bring much-needed precipitation and are an important contribution to annual freshwater supplies. However, stronger atmospheric rivers — especially those that stall at landfall or that produce rain on top of snowpack — can cause disastrous flooding.

Atmospheric rivers show up on satellite imagery, including in data from a series of actual atmospheric river storms that drenched the U.S. West Coast and caused severe flooding in early 2017.

Climate change may lead to bigger atmospheric rivers by Esprit Smith, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, May 24, 2018

Links posted on Facebook

Sun May 20, 2018

Mon May 21, 2018

Tue May 22, 2018

Wed May 23, 2018

Thu May 24, 2018

Fri May 25, 2018

Sat May 26, 2018



from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2ISYWcI
A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week.

Editor's Pick

Climate change may lead to bigger atmospheric rivers

Atmospheric River 2017 NASA/JPL-Caltech

In early 2017, the Western United States experienced rain and flooding from a series of storms flowing to America on multiple streams of moist air, each individually known as an atmospheric river. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech 

A new NASA-led study shows that climate change is likely to intensify extreme weather events known as atmospheric rivers across most of the globe by the end of this century, while slightly reducing their number.

The new study projects atmospheric rivers will be significantly longer and wider than the ones we observe today, leading to more frequent atmospheric river conditions in affected areas.

"The results project that in a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate, there will be about 10 percent fewer atmospheric rivers globally by the end of the 21st century," said the study's lead author, Duane Waliser, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "However, because the findings project that the atmospheric rivers will be, on average, about 25 percent wider and longer, the global frequency of atmospheric river conditions — like heavy rain and strong winds — will actually increase by about 50 percent."

The results also show that the frequency of the most intense atmospheric river storms is projected to nearly double.

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow jets of air that carry huge amounts of water vapor from the tropics to Earth's continents and polar regions. These "rivers in the sky" typically range from 250 to 375 miles (400 to 600 kilometers) wide and carry as much water — in the form of water vapor — as about 25 Mississippi Rivers. When an atmospheric river makes landfall, particularly against mountainous terrain (such as the Sierra Nevada and the Andes), it releases much of that water vapor in the form of rain or snow.

These storm systems are common — on average, there are about 11 present on Earth at any time. In many areas of the globe, they bring much-needed precipitation and are an important contribution to annual freshwater supplies. However, stronger atmospheric rivers — especially those that stall at landfall or that produce rain on top of snowpack — can cause disastrous flooding.

Atmospheric rivers show up on satellite imagery, including in data from a series of actual atmospheric river storms that drenched the U.S. West Coast and caused severe flooding in early 2017.

Climate change may lead to bigger atmospheric rivers by Esprit Smith, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, May 24, 2018

Links posted on Facebook

Sun May 20, 2018

Mon May 21, 2018

Tue May 22, 2018

Wed May 23, 2018

Thu May 24, 2018

Fri May 25, 2018

Sat May 26, 2018



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News digest – childhood leukaemia theory, AI diagnosis, junk food ads and ‘cancer-killing viruses’

Infection theory for childhood leukaemia proposed

A senior UK scientist has reviewed 30 years of research, suggesting a possible cause for the most common type of childhood leukaemia. The BBC reports his theory for a three-step process that could lead to children developing acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. Professor Mel Greaves says it starts with a genetic fault that happens in the womb, followed by a lack of exposure to germs in the first year of life, and proposes that an infection might push primed cells to becoming cancerous. But this full sequence of events is rare, and there’s no way to prevent these cases of leukaemia just yet. Our blog post digs into the details of the study.

Government will fund AI research to diagnose diseases earlier

The Prime Minister has promised millions of pounds to develop artificial intelligence systems that could analyse large quantities of NHS data. Theresa May hopes industries and charities will work with the NHS to develop algorithms that could scour patient data and lifestyle information and warn GPs when a patient should be referred to a specialist. The Guardian has more on this initiative that aims to diagnose diseases, including cancer, earlier.

England’s sugar crack down makes slow progress

Public Health England set out its sugar reduction programme last year, but according to the Huffington Post, many food companies have failed to make progress in reducing the amount of sugar in their products. Those making foods like yoghurt and cereal have manged to hit the programme’s sugar reduction target of 5%, but biscuit and chocolate makers have been slow to act.

Junk food ads fuel obesity

The Telegraph and The Sun pointed out the clear link between advertising junk food on TV and obesity in kids. Our study, that was discussed at an obesity research conference this week, shows that exposing children to just one more junk food ad a week can cause up to 5lbs in weight gain a year. Read our press release for more.

‘Water resistant’ sunscreens are far less effective after swimming

A new report suggests sunscreens that claim to be water resistant work far less well after taking a swim. It underlines that no sunscreen is 100% effective, and should be used alongside shade and clothing. The BBC covered the story, and here are our tips for staying safe in the sun.

WCRF’s tips to cut cancer risk

The World Cancer Research Fund announced updated recommendations on how to cut cancer risk through diet and being active. And they’re unlikely to come as a surprise. The Mail Online covered the 10-point plan that includes keeping a healthy weight, limiting red and processed meat, drinking fewer sugary drinks and cutting down on alcohol. Our experts say the occasional bacon butty or the odd glass of wine are nothing to stress over, it’s what you do most days that matters. Small changes that you can stick to can help stack the odds in your favour.

And finally

Our scientists in Cardiff have engineered a common respiratory virus to kill ovarian cancer cells in mice. The virus homes in on a molecule on the surface of ovarian cancer cells and infects them, while leaving healthy ones alone. The BBC makes it clear that the virus is some way off being used to treat cancer patients. Next, rigorous tests are needed to see if the virus is safe to use in people. Our scientists in Oxford are doing a similar thing with the same virus but are modifying it to attack lung cancer cells in mice. Read more about cancer-killing viruses here.

Gabi



from Cancer Research UK – Science blog https://ift.tt/2J6pUAW

Infection theory for childhood leukaemia proposed

A senior UK scientist has reviewed 30 years of research, suggesting a possible cause for the most common type of childhood leukaemia. The BBC reports his theory for a three-step process that could lead to children developing acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. Professor Mel Greaves says it starts with a genetic fault that happens in the womb, followed by a lack of exposure to germs in the first year of life, and proposes that an infection might push primed cells to becoming cancerous. But this full sequence of events is rare, and there’s no way to prevent these cases of leukaemia just yet. Our blog post digs into the details of the study.

Government will fund AI research to diagnose diseases earlier

The Prime Minister has promised millions of pounds to develop artificial intelligence systems that could analyse large quantities of NHS data. Theresa May hopes industries and charities will work with the NHS to develop algorithms that could scour patient data and lifestyle information and warn GPs when a patient should be referred to a specialist. The Guardian has more on this initiative that aims to diagnose diseases, including cancer, earlier.

England’s sugar crack down makes slow progress

Public Health England set out its sugar reduction programme last year, but according to the Huffington Post, many food companies have failed to make progress in reducing the amount of sugar in their products. Those making foods like yoghurt and cereal have manged to hit the programme’s sugar reduction target of 5%, but biscuit and chocolate makers have been slow to act.

Junk food ads fuel obesity

The Telegraph and The Sun pointed out the clear link between advertising junk food on TV and obesity in kids. Our study, that was discussed at an obesity research conference this week, shows that exposing children to just one more junk food ad a week can cause up to 5lbs in weight gain a year. Read our press release for more.

‘Water resistant’ sunscreens are far less effective after swimming

A new report suggests sunscreens that claim to be water resistant work far less well after taking a swim. It underlines that no sunscreen is 100% effective, and should be used alongside shade and clothing. The BBC covered the story, and here are our tips for staying safe in the sun.

WCRF’s tips to cut cancer risk

The World Cancer Research Fund announced updated recommendations on how to cut cancer risk through diet and being active. And they’re unlikely to come as a surprise. The Mail Online covered the 10-point plan that includes keeping a healthy weight, limiting red and processed meat, drinking fewer sugary drinks and cutting down on alcohol. Our experts say the occasional bacon butty or the odd glass of wine are nothing to stress over, it’s what you do most days that matters. Small changes that you can stick to can help stack the odds in your favour.

And finally

Our scientists in Cardiff have engineered a common respiratory virus to kill ovarian cancer cells in mice. The virus homes in on a molecule on the surface of ovarian cancer cells and infects them, while leaving healthy ones alone. The BBC makes it clear that the virus is some way off being used to treat cancer patients. Next, rigorous tests are needed to see if the virus is safe to use in people. Our scientists in Oxford are doing a similar thing with the same virus but are modifying it to attack lung cancer cells in mice. Read more about cancer-killing viruses here.

Gabi



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New Evaluation System Helps Air Force Better Understand Corrosion

Air Force scientists are developing an improved system for coating materials performance evaluations that will accelerate the implementation of new aircraft coatings.

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Air Force scientists are developing an improved system for coating materials performance evaluations that will accelerate the implementation of new aircraft coatings.

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New research, May 14-20, 2018

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts

Mankind

Assessing the Impacts of Extreme Agricultural Droughts in China Under Climate and Socioeconomic Changes (open access)

"Our simulations project a rise of 2.5~3.3% in average rice, maize, and wheat productivity before 2050 but decrease thereafter if climate warming continues."

Climate change adaptation strategies and food productivity in Nepal: a counterfactual analysis

"Based on a survey of 720 farming households in Nepal, our results show that adoption of adaptation strategies has significantly increased food productivity. Among the adaptation strategies, soil and water management are shown to have the largest impact on food productivity followed by adjustments to the timing of farm operations and crop and varietal adjustment."

Strengthening climate change adaptation capacity in Africa- case studies from six major African cities and policy implications

Adaptation to climate change at local level in Europe: An overview

The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain (open access)

Interpreting nonlinear semi-elasticities in reduced-form climate damage estimation

The economic impacts of ocean acidification on shellfish fisheries and aquaculture in the United Kingdom

Human damage assessments of coastal flooding for Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta due to climate change-related sea level rise in the twenty-first century

Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots (open access)

Evaluating climate change adaptation efforts on the US 50 states’ hazard mitigation plans

Coastal hazard risk assessment for small islands: assessing the impact of climate change and disaster reduction measures on Ebeye (Marshall Islands)

Differences between low-end and high-end climate change impacts in Europe across multiple sectors (open access)

"For example, for the 2080s, mitigation consistent with the Paris Agreement would reduce aggregate Europe-wide impacts on the area of intensive agriculture by 21% (on average across climate models), on the area of managed forests by 34%, on water stress by 14%, on people flooded by 10% and on biodiversity vulnerability by 16%."

The effect of meteorological conditions and air pollution on the occurrence of type A and B acute aortic dissections

Biosphere

Phytoplankton Do Not Produce Carbon‐Rich Organic Matter in High CO2 Oceans

How training citizen scientists affects the accuracy and precision of phenological data

21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory (open access)

Plant cuticle under global change: Biophysical implications

Ecological genomics predicts climate vulnerability in an endangered southwestern songbird

Explaining European fungal fruiting phenology with climate variability

Roles of climate niche conservatism and range dynamics in woody plant diversity patterns through the Cenozoic

Coupled climate–forest growth shifts in the Chilean Patagonia are decoupled from trends in water–use efficiency

As temperature increases, predator attack rate is more important to survival than a smaller window of prey vulnerability

Catalytic power of enzymes decreases with temperature: New insights for understanding soil C cycling and microbial ecology under warming

Heat waves and their significance for a temperate benthic community: A near‐natural experimental approach

Spring phenology at different altitudes is becoming more uniform under global warming in Europe

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape (open access)

Global importance of large‐diameter trees

Other impacts

Climate Change Projected to Exacerbate Impacts of Coastal Eutrophication in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Climate change mitigation

Energy production

Clean vehicles as an enabler for a clean electricity grid (open access)

Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 °C warmer world (open access)

Climate, air quality and human health benefits of various solar photovoltaic deployment scenarios in China in 2030 (open access)

Climate Policy

Research on carbon market price mechanism and influencing factors: a literature review

Regional Climate Change Policy Under Positive Feedbacks and Strategic Interactions

Climate change

Temperature, precipitation, wind

Identification and analysis of recent temporal temperature trends for Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India

Preceding winter La Niña reduces Indian summer monsoon rainfall (open access)

Potential impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on consecutive dry and wet days over West Africa (open access)

Global Character of Latent Heat Release in Oceanic Warm Rain Systems

Reduced Urban Heat Island intensity under warmer conditions (open access)

Extreme events

Risks from climate extremes change differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C depending on rarity (open access)

A comprehensive flash flood defense system in China: overview, achievements, and outlook

Future heat waves and surface ozone (open access)

Can Regional Climate Modeling Capture the Observed Changes in Spatial Organization of Extreme Storms at Higher Temperatures?

Cloud Feedback Key to Marine Heatwave off Baja California

Forcings and feedbacks

Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity (open access)

"Objective analysis of two long‐term satellite cloud fraction data sets together with observed sea surface temperature (SST) during the same periods suggest strong patterned SST‐low cloud fraction feedback. Internal modes of variability, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, emerge from this analysis, and associated with these SST variability modes are corresponding low cloud fraction patterns that suggest a strong and positive local low cloud feedback to the SST anomalies. Such SST‐LCC feedback is important for both internal variability and future climate change. We find that such feedback is too weak in current models, which implies stronger than expected future latent warming and possibly higher climate sensitivity."

Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim (open access)

The Combined Influence of Observed Southern Ocean Clouds and Sea Ice on Top‐of‐Atmosphere Albedo

Feedback mechanisms of shallow convective clouds in a warmer climate as demonstrated by changes in buoyancy (open access)

Global distribution of aerosol optical depth in 2015 using CALIPSO level 3 data

Improved Global Net Surface Heat Flux

Attribution of Local Temperature Response to Deforestation

Cryosphere

Impacts of extratropical storm tracks on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait

Links between the Amundsen Sea Low and sea ice in the Ross Sea: seasonal and interannual relationships

Intense Winter Surface Melt on an Antarctic Ice Shelf (open access)

"The station recorded temperatures well above the melting point even in winter. The occurrence of winter melt is confirmed by satellite images and by thermometers buried in the snow, which measured a warming of the snow even at 3 m depth. Between 2014 and 2017, about 23% of all melt in Cabinet Inlet occurred in winter. Winter melt is due to warm winds that descend from the mountains, known as föhn. We have not seen the amount of winter melt increasing since 2000. However, we expect winter melt to happen more frequently if greenhouse gas continues to accumulate in the atmosphere."

Topographic Steering of Enhanced Ice Flow at the Bottleneck Between East and West Antarctica (open access)

The Inferred Formation of a Subice Platelet Layer Below the Multiyear Landfast Sea Ice in the Wandel Sea (NE Greenland) Induced by Meltwater Drainage

Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum‐Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness

Bedrock Erosion Surfaces Record Former East Antarctic Ice Sheet Extent (open access)

Hydrosphere

Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation

Underestimated AMOC Variability and Implications for AMV and Predictability in CMIP Models

Coherent Circulation Changes in the Deep North Atlantic from 16°N and 26°N Transport Arrays (open access)

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and associated climatic conditions around the world during the latter half of the 21st century

Ocean circulation drifts in multi-millennial climate simulations: the role of salinity corrections and climate feedbacks (open access)

The Sensitivity of Future Ocean Oxygen to Changes in Ocean Circulation

Carbon cycle

Climate Sensitivity Controls Uncertainty in Future Terrestrial Carbon Sink

The Ephemeral Signature of Permafrost Carbon in an Arctic Fluvial Network

Dominant regions and drivers of the variability of the global land carbon sink across timescales

Plant Regrowth as a Driver of Recent Enhancement of Terrestrial CO2 Uptake

"Here using multiple terrestrial biosphere models, we demonstrate that despite a large contribution from CO2 fertilization, the enhanced CO2 uptake in the 2000s cannot be fully explained without an increasing uptake by land use change, in particular, plant regrowth. The regrowth effect is most pronounced in North America, Europe, and temperate Eurasia, and they account for 94% of the global total CO2 uptake enhancement by plant regrowth. The strengthening trends in both CO2 fertilization and plant regrowth suggest that the deceleration of the atmospheric CO2 increase continues in the future."

Characterizing biospheric carbon balance using CO2 observations from the OCO-2 satellite (open access)

Other papers

Palaeoclimatology

Where is the 1-million-year-old ice at Dome A? (open access)

Random and externally controlled occurrences of Dansgaard–Oeschger events (open access)



from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2sdnHJp

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change impacts

Mankind

Assessing the Impacts of Extreme Agricultural Droughts in China Under Climate and Socioeconomic Changes (open access)

"Our simulations project a rise of 2.5~3.3% in average rice, maize, and wheat productivity before 2050 but decrease thereafter if climate warming continues."

Climate change adaptation strategies and food productivity in Nepal: a counterfactual analysis

"Based on a survey of 720 farming households in Nepal, our results show that adoption of adaptation strategies has significantly increased food productivity. Among the adaptation strategies, soil and water management are shown to have the largest impact on food productivity followed by adjustments to the timing of farm operations and crop and varietal adjustment."

Strengthening climate change adaptation capacity in Africa- case studies from six major African cities and policy implications

Adaptation to climate change at local level in Europe: An overview

The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain (open access)

Interpreting nonlinear semi-elasticities in reduced-form climate damage estimation

The economic impacts of ocean acidification on shellfish fisheries and aquaculture in the United Kingdom

Human damage assessments of coastal flooding for Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta due to climate change-related sea level rise in the twenty-first century

Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots (open access)

Evaluating climate change adaptation efforts on the US 50 states’ hazard mitigation plans

Coastal hazard risk assessment for small islands: assessing the impact of climate change and disaster reduction measures on Ebeye (Marshall Islands)

Differences between low-end and high-end climate change impacts in Europe across multiple sectors (open access)

"For example, for the 2080s, mitigation consistent with the Paris Agreement would reduce aggregate Europe-wide impacts on the area of intensive agriculture by 21% (on average across climate models), on the area of managed forests by 34%, on water stress by 14%, on people flooded by 10% and on biodiversity vulnerability by 16%."

The effect of meteorological conditions and air pollution on the occurrence of type A and B acute aortic dissections

Biosphere

Phytoplankton Do Not Produce Carbon‐Rich Organic Matter in High CO2 Oceans

How training citizen scientists affects the accuracy and precision of phenological data

21st century tundra shrubification could enhance net carbon uptake of North America Arctic tundra under an RCP8.5 climate trajectory (open access)

Plant cuticle under global change: Biophysical implications

Ecological genomics predicts climate vulnerability in an endangered southwestern songbird

Explaining European fungal fruiting phenology with climate variability

Roles of climate niche conservatism and range dynamics in woody plant diversity patterns through the Cenozoic

Coupled climate–forest growth shifts in the Chilean Patagonia are decoupled from trends in water–use efficiency

As temperature increases, predator attack rate is more important to survival than a smaller window of prey vulnerability

Catalytic power of enzymes decreases with temperature: New insights for understanding soil C cycling and microbial ecology under warming

Heat waves and their significance for a temperate benthic community: A near‐natural experimental approach

Spring phenology at different altitudes is becoming more uniform under global warming in Europe

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape (open access)

Global importance of large‐diameter trees

Other impacts

Climate Change Projected to Exacerbate Impacts of Coastal Eutrophication in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Climate change mitigation

Energy production

Clean vehicles as an enabler for a clean electricity grid (open access)

Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 °C warmer world (open access)

Climate, air quality and human health benefits of various solar photovoltaic deployment scenarios in China in 2030 (open access)

Climate Policy

Research on carbon market price mechanism and influencing factors: a literature review

Regional Climate Change Policy Under Positive Feedbacks and Strategic Interactions

Climate change

Temperature, precipitation, wind

Identification and analysis of recent temporal temperature trends for Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India

Preceding winter La Niña reduces Indian summer monsoon rainfall (open access)

Potential impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on consecutive dry and wet days over West Africa (open access)

Global Character of Latent Heat Release in Oceanic Warm Rain Systems

Reduced Urban Heat Island intensity under warmer conditions (open access)

Extreme events

Risks from climate extremes change differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C depending on rarity (open access)

A comprehensive flash flood defense system in China: overview, achievements, and outlook

Future heat waves and surface ozone (open access)

Can Regional Climate Modeling Capture the Observed Changes in Spatial Organization of Extreme Storms at Higher Temperatures?

Cloud Feedback Key to Marine Heatwave off Baja California

Forcings and feedbacks

Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity (open access)

"Objective analysis of two long‐term satellite cloud fraction data sets together with observed sea surface temperature (SST) during the same periods suggest strong patterned SST‐low cloud fraction feedback. Internal modes of variability, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, emerge from this analysis, and associated with these SST variability modes are corresponding low cloud fraction patterns that suggest a strong and positive local low cloud feedback to the SST anomalies. Such SST‐LCC feedback is important for both internal variability and future climate change. We find that such feedback is too weak in current models, which implies stronger than expected future latent warming and possibly higher climate sensitivity."

Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim (open access)

The Combined Influence of Observed Southern Ocean Clouds and Sea Ice on Top‐of‐Atmosphere Albedo

Feedback mechanisms of shallow convective clouds in a warmer climate as demonstrated by changes in buoyancy (open access)

Global distribution of aerosol optical depth in 2015 using CALIPSO level 3 data

Improved Global Net Surface Heat Flux

Attribution of Local Temperature Response to Deforestation

Cryosphere

Impacts of extratropical storm tracks on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait

Links between the Amundsen Sea Low and sea ice in the Ross Sea: seasonal and interannual relationships

Intense Winter Surface Melt on an Antarctic Ice Shelf (open access)

"The station recorded temperatures well above the melting point even in winter. The occurrence of winter melt is confirmed by satellite images and by thermometers buried in the snow, which measured a warming of the snow even at 3 m depth. Between 2014 and 2017, about 23% of all melt in Cabinet Inlet occurred in winter. Winter melt is due to warm winds that descend from the mountains, known as föhn. We have not seen the amount of winter melt increasing since 2000. However, we expect winter melt to happen more frequently if greenhouse gas continues to accumulate in the atmosphere."

Topographic Steering of Enhanced Ice Flow at the Bottleneck Between East and West Antarctica (open access)

The Inferred Formation of a Subice Platelet Layer Below the Multiyear Landfast Sea Ice in the Wandel Sea (NE Greenland) Induced by Meltwater Drainage

Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum‐Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness

Bedrock Erosion Surfaces Record Former East Antarctic Ice Sheet Extent (open access)

Hydrosphere

Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation

Underestimated AMOC Variability and Implications for AMV and Predictability in CMIP Models

Coherent Circulation Changes in the Deep North Atlantic from 16°N and 26°N Transport Arrays (open access)

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and associated climatic conditions around the world during the latter half of the 21st century

Ocean circulation drifts in multi-millennial climate simulations: the role of salinity corrections and climate feedbacks (open access)

The Sensitivity of Future Ocean Oxygen to Changes in Ocean Circulation

Carbon cycle

Climate Sensitivity Controls Uncertainty in Future Terrestrial Carbon Sink

The Ephemeral Signature of Permafrost Carbon in an Arctic Fluvial Network

Dominant regions and drivers of the variability of the global land carbon sink across timescales

Plant Regrowth as a Driver of Recent Enhancement of Terrestrial CO2 Uptake

"Here using multiple terrestrial biosphere models, we demonstrate that despite a large contribution from CO2 fertilization, the enhanced CO2 uptake in the 2000s cannot be fully explained without an increasing uptake by land use change, in particular, plant regrowth. The regrowth effect is most pronounced in North America, Europe, and temperate Eurasia, and they account for 94% of the global total CO2 uptake enhancement by plant regrowth. The strengthening trends in both CO2 fertilization and plant regrowth suggest that the deceleration of the atmospheric CO2 increase continues in the future."

Characterizing biospheric carbon balance using CO2 observations from the OCO-2 satellite (open access)

Other papers

Palaeoclimatology

Where is the 1-million-year-old ice at Dome A? (open access)

Random and externally controlled occurrences of Dansgaard–Oeschger events (open access)



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Patient data saves lives. Here’s how we use and protect it

How do we know how many people are diagnosed with cancer each year? Or how long people survive? Or how effective different treatments are?

The answers lie in patient data.

Data is the foundation of what we know about cancer. It tells us what’s working and what needs to change.

But data can be misused, as recent news stories involving Facebook have shown. And while people might not think too much about their data when things are going fine, they rightly care when things go wrong.

Data is vital to the work that we do. Here’s how one of the teams in Cancer Research UK uses it, and how it helps save lives.

What data do we use?

Vast amounts of data are collected about cancer patients. Each time a patient uses the NHS, data such as age, symptoms, prescriptions and treatment choices are collected.

It’s this data that the Cancer Intelligence team, Cancer Research UK’s in-house analysis specialists, uses. We don’t collect data directly from patients, but apply to access information from organisations such as Public Health England. This involves a stringent approval process and strict rules, including never accessing names or addresses of patients.

The data we access is sensitive, such as precise medical histories, age and gender. Because the data is ‘potentially identifiable’, meaning if enough of it was pieced together then it might be possible to work out who certain people are, it needs to be protected.

How do we keep data safe?

For us to use patient data there must be a balance between security and access – making data so secure it can’t be used defeats the point.

There are strict rules about who can see the data, how long we can have it and what we can use it for. We don’t even share it between different teams in Cancer Research UK, and we never publish confidential data when we report results from our projects.

If we don’t follow the rules there are serious legal consequences.

Find out more: understanding patient data

The Cancer Intelligence team has a secure system that keeps data as safe as possible while we have it. When we publish results of our statistical analyses, we make sure that nobody could be re-identified and that we don’t release any confidential information.

The team has worked with data for over 15 years. Recently we became the first part of any cancer research charity to be recognised by NHS Digital as having strong protections in place, meaning we have effective and tight control over the patient data we have.

Keeping confidential patient data secure is our priority. The data we use is vital as it lets us find patterns that tell us how well the health service is working and where it can improve. Here’s a selection of data projects that show how it works.

Bowel screening

Fewer people do the bowel cancer screening test than other national screening programmes. And it’s vital to work out why. Alongside Public Health England, we ran a trial involving a combination of advertising and direct mail, aiming to increase bowel screening uptake. We’re now analysing how effective the campaign was, using age, location, the date when the test kit was received and sent back. You can read more about this here.

Treatment variation

Despite having the same clinical guidelines, different cancer patients across the country are treated differently. We’re working on two projects using patient records, including age, ethnicity and healthcare, to understand why this happens for lung and ovarian cancer in England.

Linking clinical trials and survival data

We want to combine data collected from Cancer Research UK clinical trials with NHS treatment data. Understanding how effective clinical trials have been, how people who have been on trials respond to treatments, and what happens next, will help us understand how effective new drugs are.

How do we continue to improve?

We want patients to tell us their thoughts and concerns, so we’ve set up a group of patients and experts to recommend guidelines, improving how data is used and how we share what we do with the public.

Through this we’ve increased data awareness training for staff, and we’re sharing information on our projects that use sensitive patient data, including case studies.

Using and understanding cancer data is just as important as using and understanding cancer treatments. It has just as much power to save lives, and we’re committed to protecting it.

Amy Hirst is a communications officer in the Cancer Research UK Cancer Intelligence team 



from Cancer Research UK – Science blog https://ift.tt/2LqiIO9

How do we know how many people are diagnosed with cancer each year? Or how long people survive? Or how effective different treatments are?

The answers lie in patient data.

Data is the foundation of what we know about cancer. It tells us what’s working and what needs to change.

But data can be misused, as recent news stories involving Facebook have shown. And while people might not think too much about their data when things are going fine, they rightly care when things go wrong.

Data is vital to the work that we do. Here’s how one of the teams in Cancer Research UK uses it, and how it helps save lives.

What data do we use?

Vast amounts of data are collected about cancer patients. Each time a patient uses the NHS, data such as age, symptoms, prescriptions and treatment choices are collected.

It’s this data that the Cancer Intelligence team, Cancer Research UK’s in-house analysis specialists, uses. We don’t collect data directly from patients, but apply to access information from organisations such as Public Health England. This involves a stringent approval process and strict rules, including never accessing names or addresses of patients.

The data we access is sensitive, such as precise medical histories, age and gender. Because the data is ‘potentially identifiable’, meaning if enough of it was pieced together then it might be possible to work out who certain people are, it needs to be protected.

How do we keep data safe?

For us to use patient data there must be a balance between security and access – making data so secure it can’t be used defeats the point.

There are strict rules about who can see the data, how long we can have it and what we can use it for. We don’t even share it between different teams in Cancer Research UK, and we never publish confidential data when we report results from our projects.

If we don’t follow the rules there are serious legal consequences.

Find out more: understanding patient data

The Cancer Intelligence team has a secure system that keeps data as safe as possible while we have it. When we publish results of our statistical analyses, we make sure that nobody could be re-identified and that we don’t release any confidential information.

The team has worked with data for over 15 years. Recently we became the first part of any cancer research charity to be recognised by NHS Digital as having strong protections in place, meaning we have effective and tight control over the patient data we have.

Keeping confidential patient data secure is our priority. The data we use is vital as it lets us find patterns that tell us how well the health service is working and where it can improve. Here’s a selection of data projects that show how it works.

Bowel screening

Fewer people do the bowel cancer screening test than other national screening programmes. And it’s vital to work out why. Alongside Public Health England, we ran a trial involving a combination of advertising and direct mail, aiming to increase bowel screening uptake. We’re now analysing how effective the campaign was, using age, location, the date when the test kit was received and sent back. You can read more about this here.

Treatment variation

Despite having the same clinical guidelines, different cancer patients across the country are treated differently. We’re working on two projects using patient records, including age, ethnicity and healthcare, to understand why this happens for lung and ovarian cancer in England.

Linking clinical trials and survival data

We want to combine data collected from Cancer Research UK clinical trials with NHS treatment data. Understanding how effective clinical trials have been, how people who have been on trials respond to treatments, and what happens next, will help us understand how effective new drugs are.

How do we continue to improve?

We want patients to tell us their thoughts and concerns, so we’ve set up a group of patients and experts to recommend guidelines, improving how data is used and how we share what we do with the public.

Through this we’ve increased data awareness training for staff, and we’re sharing information on our projects that use sensitive patient data, including case studies.

Using and understanding cancer data is just as important as using and understanding cancer treatments. It has just as much power to save lives, and we’re committed to protecting it.

Amy Hirst is a communications officer in the Cancer Research UK Cancer Intelligence team 



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Is Pluto made of a billion comets?

When the New Horizons spacecraft swept past the Pluto system in July 2015, it captured this image of a glacial expanse rich in nitrogen, carbon monoxide and methane ices. This is Sputnik Planitia. It forms the left lobe of the large, heart-shaped feature on Pluto’s surface. Image via NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/SwRI.

The idea of smaller bodies in space sticking together to make larger ones isn’t new. In fact, Earth and the other major planets are thought to have formed in just that way, billions of years ago, after what astronomers call planetesimals – rocklike objects orbiting the young sun – began colliding with one another. So the idea of Pluto forming from a billion comets seems logical enough. After all, Pluto orbits in the outer solar system, where things are colder. The outer solar system is the realm of icy comets, still sometimes called dirty snowballs. Since the New Horizons spacecraft passed Pluto in July 2015, astronomers have had unprecedented data about this planet. That’s how two scientists from the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) in Boulder, Colorado, were able to scrutinize this idea, developing what they call the giant comet cosmochemical model of Pluto formation.

The peer-reviewed journal Icarus published their study on May 23, 2018.

The SwRI scientists used New Horizons’ data to take a hard look at Pluto’s composition. They compared what they learned about Pluto with data from a first-of-its kind comet mission, called Rosetta. In the Rosetta mission, a spacecraft accompanied a comet in its orbit around the sun for about two years.

Tombaugh Regio is the name for Pluto’s heart-shaped feature. Sputnik Planitia forms the heart’s left lobe. Image via New Horizons spacecraft/NASA/JHUAPL/SwRI.

The SwRI scientists looked specifically at the nitrogen-rich ice in a region of Pluto called Sputnik Planitia. That is the large glacier that forms the left lobe of the bright heart-shaped feature seen in New Horizon images. Christopher Glein of SwRI, the new study’s lead author, commented in a statement:

We found an intriguing consistency between the estimated amount of nitrogen inside the glacier and the amount that would be expected if Pluto was formed by the agglomeration of roughly a billion comets or other Kuiper Belt objects similar in chemical composition to 67P, the comet explored by Rosetta.

He added:

Our research suggests that Pluto’s initial chemical makeup, inherited from cometary building blocks, was chemically modified by liquid water, perhaps even in a subsurface ocean.

For their new study, the scientists also investigated a possible model of Pluto’s formation, in which the dwarf planet formed from very cold ices with chemical composition more closely matching that of the sun than comets. They commented:

…the solar model also satisfies some constraints. While the research pointed to some interesting possibilities, many questions remain to be answered.

New Horizons gave us our first glimpse of Pluto when it swept past the planet in 2015. It also provided information on the composition of Pluto’s atmosphere and surface. These maps — assembled using New Horizons data — indicate regions rich in methane (CH4), nitrogen (N2), carbon monoxide (CO) and water (H2O) ices. Sputnik Planitia shows an especially strong signature of nitrogen near the equator. SwRI scientists combined these data with Rosetta’s comet 67P data to develop a proposed “giant comet” model for Pluto formation. Image via NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/SwRI.

Bottom line: By comparing data from the 1st-ever Pluto flyby and a 1st-ever comet rendezvous mission, scientists developed what they call ‘the giant comet’ model of Pluto formation.

Via SwRI

Source: Primordial N2 provides a cosmochemical explanation for the existence of Sputnik Planitia, Pluto



from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2KVGP6z

When the New Horizons spacecraft swept past the Pluto system in July 2015, it captured this image of a glacial expanse rich in nitrogen, carbon monoxide and methane ices. This is Sputnik Planitia. It forms the left lobe of the large, heart-shaped feature on Pluto’s surface. Image via NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/SwRI.

The idea of smaller bodies in space sticking together to make larger ones isn’t new. In fact, Earth and the other major planets are thought to have formed in just that way, billions of years ago, after what astronomers call planetesimals – rocklike objects orbiting the young sun – began colliding with one another. So the idea of Pluto forming from a billion comets seems logical enough. After all, Pluto orbits in the outer solar system, where things are colder. The outer solar system is the realm of icy comets, still sometimes called dirty snowballs. Since the New Horizons spacecraft passed Pluto in July 2015, astronomers have had unprecedented data about this planet. That’s how two scientists from the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) in Boulder, Colorado, were able to scrutinize this idea, developing what they call the giant comet cosmochemical model of Pluto formation.

The peer-reviewed journal Icarus published their study on May 23, 2018.

The SwRI scientists used New Horizons’ data to take a hard look at Pluto’s composition. They compared what they learned about Pluto with data from a first-of-its kind comet mission, called Rosetta. In the Rosetta mission, a spacecraft accompanied a comet in its orbit around the sun for about two years.

Tombaugh Regio is the name for Pluto’s heart-shaped feature. Sputnik Planitia forms the heart’s left lobe. Image via New Horizons spacecraft/NASA/JHUAPL/SwRI.

The SwRI scientists looked specifically at the nitrogen-rich ice in a region of Pluto called Sputnik Planitia. That is the large glacier that forms the left lobe of the bright heart-shaped feature seen in New Horizon images. Christopher Glein of SwRI, the new study’s lead author, commented in a statement:

We found an intriguing consistency between the estimated amount of nitrogen inside the glacier and the amount that would be expected if Pluto was formed by the agglomeration of roughly a billion comets or other Kuiper Belt objects similar in chemical composition to 67P, the comet explored by Rosetta.

He added:

Our research suggests that Pluto’s initial chemical makeup, inherited from cometary building blocks, was chemically modified by liquid water, perhaps even in a subsurface ocean.

For their new study, the scientists also investigated a possible model of Pluto’s formation, in which the dwarf planet formed from very cold ices with chemical composition more closely matching that of the sun than comets. They commented:

…the solar model also satisfies some constraints. While the research pointed to some interesting possibilities, many questions remain to be answered.

New Horizons gave us our first glimpse of Pluto when it swept past the planet in 2015. It also provided information on the composition of Pluto’s atmosphere and surface. These maps — assembled using New Horizons data — indicate regions rich in methane (CH4), nitrogen (N2), carbon monoxide (CO) and water (H2O) ices. Sputnik Planitia shows an especially strong signature of nitrogen near the equator. SwRI scientists combined these data with Rosetta’s comet 67P data to develop a proposed “giant comet” model for Pluto formation. Image via NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/SwRI.

Bottom line: By comparing data from the 1st-ever Pluto flyby and a 1st-ever comet rendezvous mission, scientists developed what they call ‘the giant comet’ model of Pluto formation.

Via SwRI

Source: Primordial N2 provides a cosmochemical explanation for the existence of Sputnik Planitia, Pluto



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Today in science: Kennedy’s moon speech

May 25, 1961. On this date, President John F. Kennedy gave a stirring speech before a joint session of Congress, in which he declared his intention to focus U.S. efforts on landing humans on the moon within a decade. His words ignited the work of a decade, in achieving the dream of a moon landing. Among other things, he said:

I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the Earth.

The first human footsteps on the moon took place on July 20, 1969.

The video above doesn’t contain the whole speech – or the section about the moon – but you can hear an audio version of that entire speech here.

Enjoying EarthSky so far? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!

Apollo 11 landing site, 1969. Image by Soerim via Wikimedia Commons.

Apollo 11 landing site, 1969. Image by Soerim via Wikimedia Commons.

Here is the full text of the space portion of President John F. Kennedy famous moon speech, delivered in person before a joint session of Congress May 25, 1961, below:

Section IX: Space:

Finally, if we are to win the battle that is now going on around the world between freedom and tyranny, the dramatic achievements in space which occurred in recent weeks should have made clear to us all, as did the Sputnik in 1957, the impact of this adventure on the minds of men everywhere, who are attempting to make a determination of which road they should take. Since early in my term, our efforts in space have been under review. With the advice of the Vice President, who is Chairman of the National Space Council, we have examined where we are strong and where we are not, where we may succeed and where we may not. Now it is time to take longer strides–time for a great new American enterprise–time for this nation to take a clearly leading role in space achievement, which in many ways may hold the key to our future on earth.

I believe we possess all the resources and talents necessary. But the facts of the matter are that we have never made the national decisions or marshaled the national resources required for such leadership. We have never specified long-range goals on an urgent time schedule, or managed our resources and our time so as to insure their fulfillment.

Recognizing the head start obtained by the Soviets with their large rocket engines, which gives them many months of lead-time, and recognizing the likelihood that they will exploit this lead for some time to come in still more impressive successes, we nevertheless are required to make new efforts on our own. For while we cannot guarantee that we shall one day be first, we can guarantee that any failure to make this effort will make us last. We take an additional risk by making it in full view of the world, but as shown by the feat of astronaut Shepard, this very risk enhances our stature when we are successful. But this is not merely a race. Space is open to us now; and our eagerness to share its meaning is not governed by the efforts of others. We go into space because whatever mankind must undertake, free men must fully share.

I therefore ask the Congress, above and beyond the increases I have earlier requested for space activities, to provide the funds which are needed to meet the following national goals:

First, I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the Earth. No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind, or more important for the long-range exploration of space; and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish. We propose to accelerate the development of the appropriate lunar space craft. We propose to develop alternate liquid and solid fuel boosters, much larger than any now being developed, until certain which is superior. We propose additional funds for other engine development and for unmanned explorations–explorations which are particularly important for one purpose which this nation will never overlook: the survival of the man who first makes this daring flight. But in a very real sense, it will not be one man going to the moon–if we make this judgment affirmatively, it will be an entire nation. For all of us must work to put him there.

Secondly, an additional 23 million dollars, together with 7 million dollars already available, will accelerate development of the Rover nuclear rocket. This gives promise of some day providing a means for even more exciting and ambitious exploration of space, perhaps beyond the moon, perhaps to the very end of the solar system itself.

Third, an additional 50 million dollars will make the most of our present leadership, by accelerating the use of space satellites for world-wide communications.

Fourth, an additional 75 million dollars–of which 53 million dollars is for the Weather Bureau–will help give us at the earliest possible time a satellite system for world-wide weather observation.

Historic first step by Neil Armstrong on the surface of the moon, July 20, 1969.

Historic first step by Neil Armstrong on the surface of the moon, July 20, 1969.

Let it be clear–and this is a judgment which the Members of the Congress must finally make–let it be clear that I am asking the Congress and the country to accept a firm commitment to a new course of action, a course which will last for many years and carry very heavy costs: 531 million dollars in fiscal ’62–an estimated 7 to 9 billion dollars additional over the next five years. If we are to go only half way, or reduce our sights in the face of difficulty, in my judgment it would be better not to go at all.

Now this is a choice which this country must make, and I am confident that under the leadership of the Space Committees of the Congress, and the Appropriating Committees, that you will consider the matter carefully.

It is a most important decision that we make as a nation. But all of you have lived through the last four years and have seen the significance of space and the adventures in space, and no one can predict with certainty what the ultimate meaning will be of mastery of space.

I believe we should go to the moon. But I think every citizen of this country as well as the Members of the Congress should consider the matter carefully in making their judgment, to which we have given attention over many weeks and months, because it is a heavy burden, and there is no sense in agreeing or desiring that the United States take an affirmative position in outer space, unless we are prepared to do the work and bear the burdens to make it successful. If we are not, we should decide today and this year.

This decision demands a major national commitment of scientific and technical manpower, materiel and facilities, and the possibility of their diversion from other important activities where they are already thinly spread. It means a degree of dedication, organization and discipline which have not always characterized our research and development efforts. It means we cannot afford undue work stoppages, inflated costs of material or talent, wasteful interagency rivalries, or a high turnover of key personnel.

New objectives and new money cannot solve these problems. They could in fact, aggravate them further–unless every scientist, every engineer, every serviceman, every technician, contractor, and civil servant gives his personal pledge that this nation will move forward, with the full speed of freedom, in the exciting adventure of space.

Apollo 11, which carried the first astronauts to set foot on the moon, launched on July 16, 1969. The human footsteps on the moon took place on July 20, 1969.

Apollo 11, which carried the first astronauts to set foot on the moon, launched on July 16, 1969. The human footsteps on the moon took place on July 20, 1969.

Bottom line: On May 25, 1961, President John F. Kennedy gave a stirring speech to a joint session of Congress declaring his intention to land humans on the moon with a decade.



from EarthSky https://ift.tt/1maM13F

May 25, 1961. On this date, President John F. Kennedy gave a stirring speech before a joint session of Congress, in which he declared his intention to focus U.S. efforts on landing humans on the moon within a decade. His words ignited the work of a decade, in achieving the dream of a moon landing. Among other things, he said:

I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the Earth.

The first human footsteps on the moon took place on July 20, 1969.

The video above doesn’t contain the whole speech – or the section about the moon – but you can hear an audio version of that entire speech here.

Enjoying EarthSky so far? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!

Apollo 11 landing site, 1969. Image by Soerim via Wikimedia Commons.

Apollo 11 landing site, 1969. Image by Soerim via Wikimedia Commons.

Here is the full text of the space portion of President John F. Kennedy famous moon speech, delivered in person before a joint session of Congress May 25, 1961, below:

Section IX: Space:

Finally, if we are to win the battle that is now going on around the world between freedom and tyranny, the dramatic achievements in space which occurred in recent weeks should have made clear to us all, as did the Sputnik in 1957, the impact of this adventure on the minds of men everywhere, who are attempting to make a determination of which road they should take. Since early in my term, our efforts in space have been under review. With the advice of the Vice President, who is Chairman of the National Space Council, we have examined where we are strong and where we are not, where we may succeed and where we may not. Now it is time to take longer strides–time for a great new American enterprise–time for this nation to take a clearly leading role in space achievement, which in many ways may hold the key to our future on earth.

I believe we possess all the resources and talents necessary. But the facts of the matter are that we have never made the national decisions or marshaled the national resources required for such leadership. We have never specified long-range goals on an urgent time schedule, or managed our resources and our time so as to insure their fulfillment.

Recognizing the head start obtained by the Soviets with their large rocket engines, which gives them many months of lead-time, and recognizing the likelihood that they will exploit this lead for some time to come in still more impressive successes, we nevertheless are required to make new efforts on our own. For while we cannot guarantee that we shall one day be first, we can guarantee that any failure to make this effort will make us last. We take an additional risk by making it in full view of the world, but as shown by the feat of astronaut Shepard, this very risk enhances our stature when we are successful. But this is not merely a race. Space is open to us now; and our eagerness to share its meaning is not governed by the efforts of others. We go into space because whatever mankind must undertake, free men must fully share.

I therefore ask the Congress, above and beyond the increases I have earlier requested for space activities, to provide the funds which are needed to meet the following national goals:

First, I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the Earth. No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind, or more important for the long-range exploration of space; and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish. We propose to accelerate the development of the appropriate lunar space craft. We propose to develop alternate liquid and solid fuel boosters, much larger than any now being developed, until certain which is superior. We propose additional funds for other engine development and for unmanned explorations–explorations which are particularly important for one purpose which this nation will never overlook: the survival of the man who first makes this daring flight. But in a very real sense, it will not be one man going to the moon–if we make this judgment affirmatively, it will be an entire nation. For all of us must work to put him there.

Secondly, an additional 23 million dollars, together with 7 million dollars already available, will accelerate development of the Rover nuclear rocket. This gives promise of some day providing a means for even more exciting and ambitious exploration of space, perhaps beyond the moon, perhaps to the very end of the solar system itself.

Third, an additional 50 million dollars will make the most of our present leadership, by accelerating the use of space satellites for world-wide communications.

Fourth, an additional 75 million dollars–of which 53 million dollars is for the Weather Bureau–will help give us at the earliest possible time a satellite system for world-wide weather observation.

Historic first step by Neil Armstrong on the surface of the moon, July 20, 1969.

Historic first step by Neil Armstrong on the surface of the moon, July 20, 1969.

Let it be clear–and this is a judgment which the Members of the Congress must finally make–let it be clear that I am asking the Congress and the country to accept a firm commitment to a new course of action, a course which will last for many years and carry very heavy costs: 531 million dollars in fiscal ’62–an estimated 7 to 9 billion dollars additional over the next five years. If we are to go only half way, or reduce our sights in the face of difficulty, in my judgment it would be better not to go at all.

Now this is a choice which this country must make, and I am confident that under the leadership of the Space Committees of the Congress, and the Appropriating Committees, that you will consider the matter carefully.

It is a most important decision that we make as a nation. But all of you have lived through the last four years and have seen the significance of space and the adventures in space, and no one can predict with certainty what the ultimate meaning will be of mastery of space.

I believe we should go to the moon. But I think every citizen of this country as well as the Members of the Congress should consider the matter carefully in making their judgment, to which we have given attention over many weeks and months, because it is a heavy burden, and there is no sense in agreeing or desiring that the United States take an affirmative position in outer space, unless we are prepared to do the work and bear the burdens to make it successful. If we are not, we should decide today and this year.

This decision demands a major national commitment of scientific and technical manpower, materiel and facilities, and the possibility of their diversion from other important activities where they are already thinly spread. It means a degree of dedication, organization and discipline which have not always characterized our research and development efforts. It means we cannot afford undue work stoppages, inflated costs of material or talent, wasteful interagency rivalries, or a high turnover of key personnel.

New objectives and new money cannot solve these problems. They could in fact, aggravate them further–unless every scientist, every engineer, every serviceman, every technician, contractor, and civil servant gives his personal pledge that this nation will move forward, with the full speed of freedom, in the exciting adventure of space.

Apollo 11, which carried the first astronauts to set foot on the moon, launched on July 16, 1969. The human footsteps on the moon took place on July 20, 1969.

Apollo 11, which carried the first astronauts to set foot on the moon, launched on July 16, 1969. The human footsteps on the moon took place on July 20, 1969.

Bottom line: On May 25, 1961, President John F. Kennedy gave a stirring speech to a joint session of Congress declaring his intention to land humans on the moon with a decade.



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