news sciences

Curious holes in Arctic sea ice

View larger. | Scientist John Sonntag with NASA’s Operation IceBridge snapped this photograph from the window of the P-3 research plane while flying over the Arctic Ocean’s Beaufort Sea on April 14, 2018. Image via NASA Earth Observatory.

NASA’s Operation IceBridge has been making yearly flights over the Arctic (and also yearly flights over the Antarctic) for 10 years, trying to use the most sophisticated possible imaging techniques on the North and South Poles, hoping to understand more about these parts of our planet. Mission scientist John Sonntag said he’d never seen circles in Arctic sea ice quite like these. He photographed them from the window of a P-3 research plane while flying over the eastern Beaufort Sea. At the time, the aircraft’s location was 69.71° North and 138.22° West, about 50 miles (75 km) northwest of Canada’s Mackenzie River Delta. Sonntag wrote from the field:

We saw these sorta-circular features only for a few minutes today. I don’t recall seeing this sort of thing elsewhere.

NASA published the photo as its April 2018 Puzzler and said, in the Puzzler’s answer on April 21:

The features are more of a curiosity than anything else.

But, as for explanations, there were none that scientists agreed upon. In fact, Operation IceBridge scientists and others at NASA still aren’t sure what caused the holes. IceBridge project scientist Nathan Kurtz said:

It’s definitely an area of thin ice, as you can see finger rafting near the holes and the color is gray enough to indicate little snow cover. I’m not sure what kind of dynamics could lead to the semi-circle shaped features surrounding the holes. I have never seen anything like that before.

NASA said warming seawater, melting the ice, might be the culprit. Or seals might have gnawed the holes to create an open area in the ice through which they can surface to breathe. For now … it’s a mystery.

Bottom line: Scientists aren’t sure what caused the holes in Arctic sea ice, photographed in mid-April 2018.

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2KkwD84

We saw these sorta-circular features only for a few minutes today. I don’t recall seeing this sort of thing elsewhere.

NASA published the photo as its April 2018 Puzzler and said, in the Puzzler’s answer on April 21:

The features are more of a curiosity than anything else.

It’s definitely an area of thin ice, as you can see finger rafting near the holes and the color is gray enough to indicate little snow cover. I’m not sure what kind of dynamics could lead to the semi-circle shaped features surrounding the holes. I have never seen anything like that before.

Bottom line: Scientists aren’t sure what caused the holes in Arctic sea ice, photographed in mid-April 2018.

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2KkwD84

Fireball over Dry Tortugas

Image via Jeff Berkes Photography.

Jeff Berkes captured this fireball – a very bright meteor – at Dry Tortugas National Park in the Florida Keys last Sunday (April 22, 2018) during the peak of the Lyrid meteor shower.

The park – accessible only by seaplane or boat – is noted for abundant sea life, tropical bird-watching, and colorful coral reefs. The park’s centerpiece is Fort Jefferson, a massive but unfinished coastal fortress, the largest brick masonry structure in the Western Hemisphere.

Jeff said:

I set up my camera overlooking a 40-foot gap in the moat wall at Fort Jefferson facing north to capture some star trails and a Lyrid meteor. The damage to the moat wall was caused by the power of Hurricane Irma in September 2017 … I started a timelapse which lasted 1 hour and 35 minutes. I captured one meteor in all of those shots. I can say that patience came through, as this Lyrid fireball entered the atmosphere towards the end of my timelapse.

The meteor was so bright that it left reflections in the water surrounding the moat.

Bottom line: Photo of a Lyrid meteor over Florida’s Dry Tortugas National Park.

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2jeAeYZ

Image via Jeff Berkes Photography.

Jeff Berkes captured this fireball – a very bright meteor – at Dry Tortugas National Park in the Florida Keys last Sunday (April 22, 2018) during the peak of the Lyrid meteor shower.

Jeff said:

I set up my camera overlooking a 40-foot gap in the moat wall at Fort Jefferson facing north to capture some star trails and a Lyrid meteor. The damage to the moat wall was caused by the power of Hurricane Irma in September 2017 … I started a timelapse which lasted 1 hour and 35 minutes. I captured one meteor in all of those shots. I can say that patience came through, as this Lyrid fireball entered the atmosphere towards the end of my timelapse.

The meteor was so bright that it left reflections in the water surrounding the moat.

Bottom line: Photo of a Lyrid meteor over Florida’s Dry Tortugas National Park.

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2jeAeYZ

News digest – tamoxifen, immunotherapy, cancer myths, and… obesity and BMI?

Thousands avoiding drug for breast cancer prevention

Thousands of women are choosing not to take a drug that can prevent breast cancer, reports Mail Online. Our researchers found that 6 in 7 women with a family history of breast cancer opt out of taking tamoxifen as a preventative measure. The researchers found the main reasons for not taking tamoxifen were fear of side effects, distrust of medication in general and believing cancer was down to fate.

Call for Theresa May to tackle obesity

Opposition party leaders have written a joint letter to Theresa May calling on her to tackle obesity, according to The Guardian. They want to see limits on junk food offers and advertising, and for sugar and fat levels in food to be lowered.

Widespread belief in cancer myths

Mistaken belief in mythical causes of cancer is rife, according to new research we funded. Nearly 2 in 10 wrongly thought microwave ovens cause cancer, and more than 4 in 10 wrongly thought stress causes cancer. BBC News covered the story.

Immunotherapy and the NHS

A promising type of immunotherapy, called CAR-T cell therapy, could be available on the NHS this year, according to The Guardian. It’s produced positive results in some patients who were previously beyond treatment, but also severe side effects and deaths in some other trials. The head of NHS England, Simon Stevens, called for a reduction in price before it’s approved.

Tests on Zika as a cancer treatment in mice

Zika virus, which causes birth defects in babies, is being tested to see if it could be used to treat childhood brain cancers. Mail Online report on the early research in mice, which is similar to work that we’re funding to see if the virus could be used to treat adults.

Using NHS data for research

Two thirds of people are willing to let the NHS collect their personal data for research, reports Pulse. A poll of more than 3,000 adults found that just under 2 in 10 would be against the NHS using their healthcare data for medical research. Nearly 6 in 10 were also willing to give a blood sample to a national DNA research database.

Small radiotherapy changes could make a big difference

Tiny differences in the position of a patient during radiotherapy for lung or oesophageal cancer could have a big impact survival, according to Yahoo News reporting on unpublished clinical research. A few millimetres difference can mean the radiation treatment aimed at tumours ends up closer to the heart than planned where it can cause unintentional damage. The researchers said more accurate positioning could be a simple way to improve survival.

And finally

BBC News reported on a research showing most adults in the UK are overweight or obese, but that many are in denial about their weight. They provided a BMI calculator for readers to see how they compare, but also looked into how reliable BMI is as a measure of obesity after readers raised concerns.

Michael

from Cancer Research UK – Science blog https://ift.tt/2JyejHe

Thousands avoiding drug for breast cancer prevention

Call for Theresa May to tackle obesity

Widespread belief in cancer myths

Immunotherapy and the NHS

Tests on Zika as a cancer treatment in mice

Using NHS data for research

Small radiotherapy changes could make a big difference

And finally

Michael

from Cancer Research UK – Science blog https://ift.tt/2JyejHe

Moon near Jupiter April 28 to 30

These next several evenings – April 28-30, 2018 – watch for a brilliant “star” close to the very bright moon. It’s no star at all, but the giant planet Jupiter, largest world in our solar system. The April 29 full moon will be close to Jupiter, and the April 30 moon even closer.

With or without the moon, you’ll find Jupiter climbing into the evening sky about an hour after sunset. This planet will soon reach its yearly opposition, when Earth will fly between Jupiter and the sun, gaining a lap on the planet for this year. Jupiter’s opposition will come on May 9, 2018.

At opposition, Jupiter rise in the east as the sun sets in the west. It’ll be out all night, from dusk until dawn. Since we’ll be generally closest to it, it’ll be the best time to observe Jupiter with a telescope, and even good-quality, steadily held binoculars should let you glimpse the ever-changing dance of Jupiter’s moons.

Opposition happens when Earth flies between an outer planet, like Jupiter, and the sun. This happens yearly for most of the outer planets (with Mars being the exception). Illustration via Heavens Above.

One last thing … it’s fun to stand outside in a fairly level spot, where you can see the horizons, and watch Jupiter and Venus in late April 2018. As Earth spins under the sky, Venus is now descending in the west as Jupiter ascends in the east. Around now, if you have an unobstructed view of the sky, you should easily see the sky’s two brightest planets – Venus in the west, and Jupiter in the east – as night falls.

It’s Kristina Tau pointing skyward – from the vantagepoint of Haleakala National Park in Hawaii – in this March 19, 2018 photo of the moon and Venus by Leo Parias.

Bottom line: Watch for Jupiter near the moon April 28 to 30, 2018.

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2FmTDQb

It’s Kristina Tau pointing skyward – from the vantagepoint of Haleakala National Park in Hawaii – in this March 19, 2018 photo of the moon and Venus by Leo Parias.

Bottom line: Watch for Jupiter near the moon April 28 to 30, 2018.

from EarthSky https://ift.tt/2FmTDQb

Army, Cornell researchers Study Octopus Skin to Use in Camouflage

Now you "sea" me, now you don't: Army researchers studying octopus skin to mimic camouflage capabilities

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The missing maths: the human cost of fossil fuels

Dr. Ploy Achakulwisut is a Postdoctoral Scientist at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health. She has a PhD in Atmospheric Science from Harvard University.

While the climate policy world is littered with numbers, three of them have dominated recent discourse: 2, 1000, and 66.

At the 2015 U.N. climate summit in Paris, world leaders agreed to limit global warming below 2°C to avoid catastrophic impacts of human-caused climate change. The science consequently dictates that, for a 50% chance of staying below 2°C, around 1,000 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (or 300 billion tonnes of carbon) can be emitted between now and 2050, and close to zero thereafter. We’re currently emitting 36 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. However, the potential greenhouse gas emissions contained in known, extractable fossil fuel reserves are around three times higher than this carbon budget, meaning that 66% must be kept in the ground.

The debate du jour thus centers on which emissions reduction pathway is most optimal for staying below 2°C. The calculus of many policymakers, economists, fossil fuel companies, and indeed scientists, is that the most economical way to stay below 2°C is to delay most emissions reductions for decades to come, and then to play catch up by relying heavily on as-yet technically and economically unviable negative-emissions technologies. However, a crucial number has been neglected in this mainstream calculation: 6.1 million.

Each year, 6.1 million lives are lost prematurely due to air pollution. Though most acutely and visibly hampering megacities of the developing world, air pollution is a growing public health emergency that affects almost all of us in our daily lives, whether or not we are aware of it. The Health Effects Institute estimates that only 5% of the global population are lucky enough to live in areas with air pollution levels below safe guidelines. Though recent studies suggest there may in fact be no risk-free level of air pollution.

Why is this number relevant to climate policy? Because one common culprit is responsible for the majority of both climate change and air pollution: fuel combustion. Burning coal, oil, natural gas, and biomass – for everyday uses ranging from electricity, heating, cooking, to transportation – releases hundreds of gases and particles, some of which disrupt the climate system or are harmful to human health, or both. Climate change could also worsen air quality in the future.

Decades of research have revealed that air pollution is associated with a wide range of diseases and disorders, including asthma, cancer, heart disease, stroke, and premature birth. There is also emerging evidence that pollution from coal combustion and motor vehicles can cause development delays, reduced IQ, and autism in children. The societal and economic costs of air pollution are multifold. There are costs to the affected individuals, to their families and to society in terms of direct medical costs, costs to healthcare systems, productivity losses, and lower economic growth (not to mention costs resulting from damages to ecosystems).

Yet almost none of these costs stemming from our fossil fuel reliance are included in the majority of cost-benefit analyses of climate mitigation strategies. A recent study estimates that the health co-benefits from air pollution reductions would outweigh the mitigation costs of staying below 2°C by 140–250% globally. Historical evidence paints a similar picture. The EPA estimates that the U.S. Clean Air Amendments cost $65bn to implement, but will have yielded a benefit of almost $2tn by 2020 in avoided health costs.

Click here to read the rest

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2HCvJSJ

Dr. Ploy Achakulwisut is a Postdoctoral Scientist at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health. She has a PhD in Atmospheric Science from Harvard University.

While the climate policy world is littered with numbers, three of them have dominated recent discourse: 2, 1000, and 66.

Click here to read the rest

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2HCvJSJ

New research, April 16-22, 2018

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

Climate change

Temperature, precipitation, wind

1. Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability (open access)

"We find that eastern Europe is dominated by subdecadal SAT variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas interdecadal and multidecadal SAT variability over northern and southern Europe are thermodynamically driven by ocean temperature anomalies. Our results provide evidence that temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean are advected over land by the mean westerly winds and, hence, provide a mechanism through which ocean temperature controls the variability and provides predictability of European SAT."

2. A possible recovery of the near-surface wind speed in Eastern China during winter after 2000 and the potential causes

3. Mechanisms Controlling Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature Determined From a State Estimate

4. Uganda rainfall variability and prediction

5. An analysis of spatial representativeness of air temperature monitoring stations

6. Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals (open access)

7. Concurrent increases in wet and dry extremes projected in Texas and combined effects on groundwater (open access)

Extreme events

8. Facing climate change-related extreme events in megacities of China in the context of 1.5 °C global warming

"These extreme events have shown an uptrend in China's megacities and are projected to further increase in the future. Notably, the projected intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation events in China's three urban agglomerations is lower under 1.5 °C global warming compared with 2 °C."

9. Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

"Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply‐demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north‐west China, and parts of Southern America."

10. Drought Indices, Drought Impacts, CO2, and Warming: a Historical and Geologic Perspective

11. Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China (open access)

12. Increased Frequency of Summer Extreme Heat Waves over Texas Area Tied to the Amplification of Pacific Zonal SST Gradient

13. Changing urban risk: 140 years of climatic hazards in New York City (open access)

14. Climate Change and Drought: the Soil Moisture Perspective

Forcings and feedbacks

15. The Response of the Ocean Thermal Skin Layer to Variations in Incident Infrared Radiation

"Ocean warming trends are observed and coincide with the increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere resulting from human activities. At the ocean surface, most of the incoming infrared (IR) radiation is absorbed within the top micrometers of the ocean's surface where the thermal skin layer (TSL) exists. Thus, the incident IR radiation does not directly heat the upper few meters of the ocean. This paper investigates the physical mechanism between the absorption of IR radiation and its effect on heat transfer at the air‐sea boundary. The hypothesis is that given the heat lost through the air‐sea interface is controlled by the TSL, the TSL adjusts in response to variations in incident IR radiation to maintain the surface heat loss. This modulates the flow of heat from below and hence controls upper ocean heat content. This hypothesis is tested using the increase in incoming longwave radiation from clouds and analyzing vertical temperature profiles in the TSL retrieved from sea‐surface emission spectra. The additional energy from the absorption of increasing IR radiation adjusts the curvature of the TSL such that the upward conduction of heat from the bulk of the ocean into the TSL is reduced. The additional energy absorbed within the TSL supports more of the surface heat loss. Thus, more heat beneath the TSL is retained leading to the observed increase in upper ocean heat content."

16. The influence of internal variability on Earth's energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate sensitivity (open access)

"One of the most important parameters in climate science is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Estimates of this quantity based on 20th-century observations suggest low values of ECS (below 2 °C). We show that these calculations may be significantly in error. Together with other recent work on this problem, it seems probable that the ECS is larger than suggested by the 20th-century observations."

17. Insights into the diurnal cycle of global Earth outgoing radiation using a numerical weather prediction model (open access)

18. Toward Global Mapping of Methane With TROPOMI: First Results and Intersatellite Comparison to GOSAT (open access)

19. Trends and variability of cloud fraction cover in the Arctic, 1982–2009

20. Increased importance of methane reduction for a 1.5 degree target (open access)

21. Climatology and long-term evolution of ozone and carbon monoxide in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) at northern midlatitudes, as seen by IAGOS from 1995 to 2013 (open access)

Cryosphere

22. Grounding line migration through the calving season at Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland, observed with terrestrial radar interferometry (open access)

23. A Century of Stability of Avannarleq and Kujalleq Glaciers, West Greenland, Explained Using High‐Resolution Airborne Gravity and Other Data

24. Exploring the Potential Impact of Greenland Meltwater on Stratification, Photosynthetically Active Radiation, and Primary Production in the Labrador Sea

25. Seasonal and Interannual Variations of Sea Ice Mass Balance From the Central Arctic to the Greenland Sea

26. Subglacial drainage patterns of Devon Island, Canada: detailed comparison of rivers and subglacial meltwater channels (open access)

27. Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change

28. Changes in flow of Crosson and Dotson ice shelves, West Antarctica, in response to elevated melt (open access)

29. Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016) (open access)

Hydrosphere

30. Bias in Estimates of Global Mean Sea Level Change Inferred from Satellite Altimetry

"We demonstrate that using satellite altimetry records to estimate global ocean volume changes can lead to biases that can exceed 15%. The level of bias will depend on the relative contributions to sea level changes from the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets."

31. The response of vegetation to rising CO2 concentrations plays an important role in future changes in the hydrological cycle

32. The sign, magnitude and potential drivers of change in surface water extent in Canadian tundra (open access)

33. A dual model for emulation of thermosteric and dynamic sea-level change

34. Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming (open access)

35. Observational evidence for the relationship between spring soil moisture and June rainfall over the Indian region

Atmospheric and oceanic circulation

36. The Effect of Arctic Freshwater Pathways on North Atlantic Convection and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

37. Relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Symmetry of the Hadley Circulation: Role of the Sea Surface Temperature Annual Cycle

38. The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

39. Multi-decadal timeseries of the Indonesian throughflow

40. Unprecedented 2015/2016 Indo‐Pacific Heat Transfer Speeds Up Tropical Pacific Heat Recharge

41. Decadal variability of the meridional geostrophic transport in the upper tropical North Pacific Ocean

Carbon cycle

42. Hurricane Arthur and its effect on the short-term variability of pCO2 on the Scotian Shelf, NW Atlantic (open access)

43. Vascular plant‐mediated controls on atmospheric carbon assimilation and peat carbon decomposition under climate change

44. Global effects of plant litter alterations on soil CO2 to the atmosphere

45. Interannual drivers of the seasonal cycle of CO2 in the Southern Ocean (open access)

Climate change impacts

Mankind

47. Sea Level Rise Impacts on Wastewater Treatment Systems Along the U.S. Coasts

48. The Effects of Social Connections on Evacuation Decision Making during Hurricane Irma

49. Climate security assessment of countries

50. Integration anxiety: The cognitive isolation of climate change

51. Global change effects on land management in the Mediterranean region

Biosphere

52. Ocean acidification changes the structure of an Antarctic coastal protistan community (open access)

"This study shows a shift in a natural Antarctic microbial community, with CO₂ levels exceeding 634 μatm changing the community composition and favouring small cells. This would have significant flow effects for Antarctic food webs and elemental cycles."

53. Natural ocean acidification at Papagayo upwelling system (north Pacific Costa Rica): implications for reef development (open access)

"Local coral reefs are exposed to acidic and undersaturated waters in upwelling and non-upwelling events. These restrictive conditions occur alongside local stressors, potentially decreasing reefs' resilience and increasing their vulnerability under future OA."

54. Mass coral bleaching causes biotic homogenization of reef fish assemblages

55. Coral bleaching is linked to the capacity of the animal host to supply essential metals to the symbionts

56. Time lag and negative responses of forest greenness and tree growth to warming over circumboreal forests

57. The response of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to interannual climate variation changes across its range (open access)

58. Nitrous oxide emissions could reduce the blue carbon value of marshes on eutrophic estuaries (open access)

59. Balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany's forests under climate change (open access)

60. Hatching delays in great tits and blue tits in response to an extreme cold spell: a long-term study (open access)

61. Elevated CO2 did not affect the hydrological balance of a mature native Eucalyptus woodland

62. Is there a substitution of Pinaceae by Fagaceae in temperate forests at the global scale?

"Our results indicate a widespread increase in dominance of Fagaceae species at the expense of Pinaceae across northern temperate forests, with the exception of Eastern North America."

63. Plants and Drought in a Changing Climate

Climate change mitigation

64. Independent data for transparent monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions from the land use sector – What do stakeholders think and need? (open access)

65. Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land‐based climate‐change mitigation efforts

66. Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5 °C stabilization: a short-term multi-model assessment (open access)

Emission savings

67. Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization (open access)

68. Global radiative effects of solid fuel cookstove aerosol emissions (open access)

69. Economic drivers of telecoupling and terrestrial carbon fluxes in the global soybean complex

70. CO2 abatement goals for international shipping (open access)

Energy production

71. Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios to expert projections

72. Emerging energy sources for electric vehicle charging station

73. How households adapted their energy use during the Zambian energy crisis

Other papers

General climate science

74. A Dynamically Consistent, Multi-Variable Ocean Climatology (open access)

Palaeoclimatology

75. Coral‐Derived Western Pacific Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures During the Last Millennium

"Reconstructed coral Sr/Ca‐sea surface temperatures indicate that the “Little Ice Age (1711–1817 CE)” period was ~0.7°C cooler than the “Medieval Climate Anomaly (913‐1132 CE)” and that late 20th century warming of the western Pacific is likely unprecedented over the past millennium."

76. Farming data: Testing climatic and palaeoenvironmental effect on Neolithic Adriatic stockbreeding and hunting through zooarchaeological meta-analysis

77. Accumulation patterns around Dome C, East Antarctica, in the last 73 kyr (open access)

78. Ice Core Records of West Greenland Melt and Climate Forcing

79. An inverse approach to the course of the ‘Little Ice Age’ glacier advance and the following deglaciation at Austerdalsisen, eastern Svartisen, northern Norway

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