Why the New Year begins on January 1

Via Pixabay and About.com.

The date of a new year isn’t precisely fixed by any natural or seasonal marker. Instead, our celebration of New Year’s Day on January 1 is a civil event. That’s despite the fact that, for us in the Northern Hemisphere where the amount of daylight has ebbed to its lowest point and the days are getting longer again, there’s a feeling of rebirth in the air.

Our modern celebration of New Year’s Day stems from an ancient Roman custom, the feast of the Roman god Janus – god of doorways and beginnings. The name for the month of January also comes from Janus, who was depicted as having two faces. One face of Janus looked back into the past, and the other peered forward to the future.

To celebrate the new year, the Romans made promises to Janus. From this ancient practice comes our tradition of making New Year’s Day resolutions.

Best New Year’s gift ever! EarthSky moon calendar for 2017

Janus the doorkeeper via tablesbeyondbelief.

January 1 hasn’t been New Year’s Day throughout history, though. In the past, some New Year’s celebrations took place at an equinox, a day when the sun is above Earth’s equator, and night and day are equal in length. In many cultures, the March or vernal equinox marks a time of transition and new beginnings, and so cultural celebrations of a new year were natural for that equinox. The September or autumnal also had its proponents for the beginning of a new year. For example, the French Republican Calendar – implemented during the French Revolution and used for about 12 years from late 1793 to 1805 – started its year at the September equinox.

The Greeks celebrated the new year on the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year.

Today, although many do celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1, some cultures and religions do not. Jews use a lunar calendar and celebrate the New Year on Rosh Hashana, the first day of the month of Tishri, which is the first month of their calendar. This date usually occurs in September.

Most are also familiar with the Chinese New Year, celebrated for weeks in January or early February. In 2017, the Chinese New Year of the Rooster begins on January 28.

By the way, in addition to the longer days here in the Northern Hemisphere, there’s another astronomical occurrence around January 1 each year that’s also related to Earth’s year, as defined by our orbit around the sun. That is, Earth’s perihelion – or closest point to the sun – happens every year in early January. In 2017, perihelion comes on January 4.

We don’t celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1 for this reason, but it would make sense if we did. Perihelion – our closest point to the sun in our yearly orbit – takes place each year around January 4. Image via NASA

Bottom line: The reason to celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1 is historical, not astronomical. The New Year was celebrated according to astronomical events – such as equinoxes and solstices – eons ago. Our modern New Year’s celebration stems from the ancient, two-faced, Roman god Janus, after whom the month of January is also named. One face of Janus looked back into the past, and the other peered forward to the future.

from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2iSC5Ag

Via Pixabay and About.com.

The date of a new year isn’t precisely fixed by any natural or seasonal marker. Instead, our celebration of New Year’s Day on January 1 is a civil event. That’s despite the fact that, for us in the Northern Hemisphere where the amount of daylight has ebbed to its lowest point and the days are getting longer again, there’s a feeling of rebirth in the air.

Our modern celebration of New Year’s Day stems from an ancient Roman custom, the feast of the Roman god Janus – god of doorways and beginnings. The name for the month of January also comes from Janus, who was depicted as having two faces. One face of Janus looked back into the past, and the other peered forward to the future.

To celebrate the new year, the Romans made promises to Janus. From this ancient practice comes our tradition of making New Year’s Day resolutions.

Best New Year’s gift ever! EarthSky moon calendar for 2017

Janus the doorkeeper via tablesbeyondbelief.

January 1 hasn’t been New Year’s Day throughout history, though. In the past, some New Year’s celebrations took place at an equinox, a day when the sun is above Earth’s equator, and night and day are equal in length. In many cultures, the March or vernal equinox marks a time of transition and new beginnings, and so cultural celebrations of a new year were natural for that equinox. The September or autumnal also had its proponents for the beginning of a new year. For example, the French Republican Calendar – implemented during the French Revolution and used for about 12 years from late 1793 to 1805 – started its year at the September equinox.

The Greeks celebrated the new year on the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year.

Today, although many do celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1, some cultures and religions do not. Jews use a lunar calendar and celebrate the New Year on Rosh Hashana, the first day of the month of Tishri, which is the first month of their calendar. This date usually occurs in September.

Most are also familiar with the Chinese New Year, celebrated for weeks in January or early February. In 2017, the Chinese New Year of the Rooster begins on January 28.

By the way, in addition to the longer days here in the Northern Hemisphere, there’s another astronomical occurrence around January 1 each year that’s also related to Earth’s year, as defined by our orbit around the sun. That is, Earth’s perihelion – or closest point to the sun – happens every year in early January. In 2017, perihelion comes on January 4.

We don’t celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1 for this reason, but it would make sense if we did. Perihelion – our closest point to the sun in our yearly orbit – takes place each year around January 4. Image via NASA

Bottom line: The reason to celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1 is historical, not astronomical. The New Year was celebrated according to astronomical events – such as equinoxes and solstices – eons ago. Our modern New Year’s celebration stems from the ancient, two-faced, Roman god Janus, after whom the month of January is also named. One face of Janus looked back into the past, and the other peered forward to the future.

from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2iSC5Ag

Today in science: Discovery of Ceres

Ceres’ Occator Crater in false colour showing surface composition via NASA’s Dawn spacecraft/ JPL/ Caltech/ UCLA/ MPS/ DLR/ IDA.

January 1, 1801. Italian priest, mathematician and astronomer Giuseppe Piazzi discovered Ceres, largest object in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, on this date. In 2006, the International Astronomical Union gave Ceres dwarf planet status, along with Pluto and Eris. Nine years later, Ceres became the second dwarf planet, after Pluto, to be visited by spacecraft and the first ever to be orbited.

The story of the discovery of Ceres goes back to German astronomer Johannes Kepler and to Tycho Brahe, a Danish nobleman and inveterate night sky observer, in the 1500s. When Kepler obtained Tycho’s astronomical data, he searched it for the explanation behind the motion of the planets, in particular Mars’ retrograde motion. This work led Kepler to what is one of his most praised discoveries, what we today know as Kepler’s three laws of planetary motion.

However, Kepler’s analysis also led him to discover something else. He noticed an unusually large empty area between the orbits of the planets Mars and Jupiter. This gap, combined with Kepler’s realization of the regularity of the planets’ orbits, provoked Kepler to assert there must be something in the gap. He thought it might be an undiscovered planet and famously wrote:

Between Jupiter and Mars, I place a planet.

Kepler wasn’t the only one to notice this strange gap. At the beginning of the 18th century, Titius, a Prussian astronomer, stated a relationship between the planet’s orbital distances from the sun, later popularized by German astronomer Johann Bode, today called the Titius-Bode Law. Briefly … begin with a 0, and then 3, and then double each subsequent number. If you do that, you get a series: 0, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, etc. Then add 4 and divide by 10, and you get (more or less) the distances in astronomical units (AU) to the major planets of our solar system: 0.4, 0.7, 1.0, 1.6, 2.8, 5.2, and so on. But notice that 2.8 AU. It corresponds to the distance of the space between Mars and Jupiter.

But, still, nobody thought much about a possible planet between Mars and Jupiter until 1781, when William Herschel accidentally discovered a new planet – the first one found since humans began gazing at the sky – which we now call Uranus. Its distance from the sun was close to the one predicted by Titius-Bode.

And so the search was on! By the end of the 18th century, a group of astronomers who called themselves the Celestial Police took on the task of finding out what lay in the gap between Mars and Jupiter.

Giuseppe Piazzi pointing at Ceres via io9.

Giuseppe Piazzi was supposed to be one of the members, but before he received his invitation, he had already discovered Ceres in early 1801. At first, he thought the small spot he was seeing was just a dim star not included in his chart. On the next day, however, Piazzi saw that it had moved and therefore could not be a star. Illness and unfavorable weather prevented Piazzi from observing his new finding for a few nights. But by January 24, 1801 – by tracking its motion in front of the stars and thereby calculating its distance – he was certain the object was a member of our own solar system.

It was, of course, hailed as the missing planet! Piazzi named it Ceres after the Roman goddess of agriculture, fertility and harvest. Soon, though, other astronomers began finding similar bodies at Ceres’ approximate distance from the sun. German physician and astronomer Heinrich Olbers discovered the asteroid Pallas in 1802 and Vesta in 1807.

The Titius-Bode Law was disproved in 1846 with the discovery of Neptune, whose distance is much closer than predicted by this law. Today, astronomers still can’t explain why it seemed to work at first; most regard it as a coincidence.

Fast forward to 2006. The IAU designated Pluto, Ceres, and Eris as dwarf planets. A year later, NASA launched the Dawn spacecraft, the first spacecraft ever with two destinations to explore: first Vesta (which it orbited in 2011 and 2012) and then Ceres (which it still orbits today).

And now, you might say, Ceres has been discovered a second time. The story you are most likely to have heard about is that of Ceres’ famous bright spots, shown in the images below, which was captured by Dawn as it approached Ceres. The bright spots confounded even scientists at first (and internet rumors abounded about alien life on Ceres), but the bright spots turned out to be salt deposits.

NASA’s Dawn spacecraft acquired this image of dwarf planet Ceres on February 19, 2015 from a distance of nearly 29,000 miles (46,000 km). Image via NASA/JPL-Caltech/UCLA/MPS/DLR/IDA

Ceres’ bright spots from Dawn’s closest orbit in 2016, just 240 miles (385 km) above its surface (lower than the space station is above Earth).

Scientists also recently discovered that Ceres is water-rich. Water ice lies in permanently shadowed craters on Ceres, and it’s widespread under Ceres’ surface, especially near its poles. Read more about Ceres’ water wealth.

Bottom line: The dwarf planet Ceres was discovered on January 1, 1801 by Italian astronomer and priest Giuseppe Piazzi.

from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2ivHVes

Ceres’ Occator Crater in false colour showing surface composition via NASA’s Dawn spacecraft/ JPL/ Caltech/ UCLA/ MPS/ DLR/ IDA.

January 1, 1801. Italian priest, mathematician and astronomer Giuseppe Piazzi discovered Ceres, largest object in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, on this date. In 2006, the International Astronomical Union gave Ceres dwarf planet status, along with Pluto and Eris. Nine years later, Ceres became the second dwarf planet, after Pluto, to be visited by spacecraft and the first ever to be orbited.

The story of the discovery of Ceres goes back to German astronomer Johannes Kepler and to Tycho Brahe, a Danish nobleman and inveterate night sky observer, in the 1500s. When Kepler obtained Tycho’s astronomical data, he searched it for the explanation behind the motion of the planets, in particular Mars’ retrograde motion. This work led Kepler to what is one of his most praised discoveries, what we today know as Kepler’s three laws of planetary motion.

However, Kepler’s analysis also led him to discover something else. He noticed an unusually large empty area between the orbits of the planets Mars and Jupiter. This gap, combined with Kepler’s realization of the regularity of the planets’ orbits, provoked Kepler to assert there must be something in the gap. He thought it might be an undiscovered planet and famously wrote:

Between Jupiter and Mars, I place a planet.

Kepler wasn’t the only one to notice this strange gap. At the beginning of the 18th century, Titius, a Prussian astronomer, stated a relationship between the planet’s orbital distances from the sun, later popularized by German astronomer Johann Bode, today called the Titius-Bode Law. Briefly … begin with a 0, and then 3, and then double each subsequent number. If you do that, you get a series: 0, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, etc. Then add 4 and divide by 10, and you get (more or less) the distances in astronomical units (AU) to the major planets of our solar system: 0.4, 0.7, 1.0, 1.6, 2.8, 5.2, and so on. But notice that 2.8 AU. It corresponds to the distance of the space between Mars and Jupiter.

But, still, nobody thought much about a possible planet between Mars and Jupiter until 1781, when William Herschel accidentally discovered a new planet – the first one found since humans began gazing at the sky – which we now call Uranus. Its distance from the sun was close to the one predicted by Titius-Bode.

And so the search was on! By the end of the 18th century, a group of astronomers who called themselves the Celestial Police took on the task of finding out what lay in the gap between Mars and Jupiter.

Giuseppe Piazzi pointing at Ceres via io9.

Giuseppe Piazzi was supposed to be one of the members, but before he received his invitation, he had already discovered Ceres in early 1801. At first, he thought the small spot he was seeing was just a dim star not included in his chart. On the next day, however, Piazzi saw that it had moved and therefore could not be a star. Illness and unfavorable weather prevented Piazzi from observing his new finding for a few nights. But by January 24, 1801 – by tracking its motion in front of the stars and thereby calculating its distance – he was certain the object was a member of our own solar system.

It was, of course, hailed as the missing planet! Piazzi named it Ceres after the Roman goddess of agriculture, fertility and harvest. Soon, though, other astronomers began finding similar bodies at Ceres’ approximate distance from the sun. German physician and astronomer Heinrich Olbers discovered the asteroid Pallas in 1802 and Vesta in 1807.

The Titius-Bode Law was disproved in 1846 with the discovery of Neptune, whose distance is much closer than predicted by this law. Today, astronomers still can’t explain why it seemed to work at first; most regard it as a coincidence.

Fast forward to 2006. The IAU designated Pluto, Ceres, and Eris as dwarf planets. A year later, NASA launched the Dawn spacecraft, the first spacecraft ever with two destinations to explore: first Vesta (which it orbited in 2011 and 2012) and then Ceres (which it still orbits today).

And now, you might say, Ceres has been discovered a second time. The story you are most likely to have heard about is that of Ceres’ famous bright spots, shown in the images below, which was captured by Dawn as it approached Ceres. The bright spots confounded even scientists at first (and internet rumors abounded about alien life on Ceres), but the bright spots turned out to be salt deposits.

NASA’s Dawn spacecraft acquired this image of dwarf planet Ceres on February 19, 2015 from a distance of nearly 29,000 miles (46,000 km). Image via NASA/JPL-Caltech/UCLA/MPS/DLR/IDA

Ceres’ bright spots from Dawn’s closest orbit in 2016, just 240 miles (385 km) above its surface (lower than the space station is above Earth).

Scientists also recently discovered that Ceres is water-rich. Water ice lies in permanently shadowed craters on Ceres, and it’s widespread under Ceres’ surface, especially near its poles. Read more about Ceres’ water wealth.

Bottom line: The dwarf planet Ceres was discovered on January 1, 1801 by Italian astronomer and priest Giuseppe Piazzi.

from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2ivHVes

Geese flying along anticrepusular rays

Photo taken December 29, 2016 by Karl Diefenderfer in Quakertown, Pennsylvania.

How to see anticrepuscular rays

from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2iSC7Iu

Photo taken December 29, 2016 by Karl Diefenderfer in Quakertown, Pennsylvania.

How to see anticrepuscular rays

from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2iSC7Iu

Chinese New Year is January 28, 2017

Happy New Year of the Rooster from Earthsky! Image via allpicts.

Over a billion people in China and millions around the world will celebrate the the Chinese New Year – the most important of Chinese holidays – on January 28, 2017. It’s a lunar new year and so the date is based on the date of new moon. Festivities continuing for 15 days and culminating with the Lantern Festival. Each year is associated with one of 12 animals in the Chinese zodiac. For 2017, it’s the Year of the Rooster.

Many countries in Southeast Asia celebrate the Chinese New Year, including China, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. It’s also celebrated in Chinatowns and Asian homes around the world. It’s considered a time to honor deities and ancestors.

There are several variations on the mythology behind Chinese New Year celebrations. Most are based on a ugly bloodthirsty monster named Nian that would emerge on the last night of each year to destroy villages and eat people. A wise elder advised villagers to scare the monster away with loud noises. That night, they set fire to bamboo, lit fireworks, and banged their drums. The monster, afraid of the loud noises and lights, ran away to hide in its cave. In another version of the myth, an old man persuaded Nian to turn its wrath on other monsters, not the villagers. Before he was seen riding away on Nian, the old man, actually a god, advised the people to hang red paper decorations in their homes and set off firecrackers on the last night of the year to keep Nian away.

On the first day of the new year, the villagers celebrated, greeting each other with the words Guo Nian, which mean “survive the Nian.” That tradition that has continued to this day, with Guo Nian now meaning “celebrate the new year.”

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Traditional Chinese New Year Decoration. Image via Fanghong via Wikimedia Commons.

Chinese New Year fireworks in Hong Kong. Image via Kroot via Wikimedia Commons.

In China, the familiar Gregorian calendar is used for day-to-day life. But Chinese calendar dates continue to be used to mark traditional holidays such as the new year and the fall moon festival. It’s also used astrologically to select favorable dates for weddings and other special events.

The Chinese calendar is a lunisolar calendar, in other words, a combination of solar and lunar calendars. It has a long history spanning several Chinese dynastic rules from as far back as the Shang Dynasty around fourteenth century B.C.. There are several different symbolic cycles within the calendar, used in Chinese astrology, that make it an intricate and complex measure of time.

A month in the Chinese calendar spans a single lunar cycle. The first day of the month begins during the new moon, when no sunlight falls on the lunar hemisphere that faces the Earth. A lunar cycle, on average, lasts 29.5 days, so a lunar month can last 29 or 30 days. Usually, there are 12 lunar months in a Chinese calendar year. In order to catch up with the solar calendar, which averages 365.25 days in a year, an extra month is added to the Chinese calendar every two or three years. As a result, Chinese New Year falls on different dates each year (in the Gregorian calendar) between January 21 and February 21.

Chinese New Year red envelopes, used for giving money to children, at Dihua Market, Taipei, Taiwan. Image via BCody80 via Wikimedia Commons.

Each year of the Chinese lunar calendar is represented by one of 12 animal symbols of the Chinese zodiac: Rat, Ox, Tiger, Rabbit, Dragon, Snake, Horse, Sheep (Goat), Monkey, Rooster, Dog, and Boar. For 2017, it’s the Rooster’s turn. Travelchinaguide.com says of the year of the Rooster:

Rooster is almost the epitome of fidelity and punctuality. For ancestors who had no alarm clocks, the crowing was significant, as it could awaken people to get up and start to work. In Chinese culture, another symbolic meaning of chicken carries is exorcising evil spirits.

Chinese New Year celebrations traditionally lasts 15 days, from the first day (during a new moon) to the 15th day (next full moon). Each day holds a special significance that varies according to local traditions. But first, before the arrival of the new year, homes are thoroughly cleaned to sweep away ill fortune, and to welcome good luck. On new year’s eve, there are family gatherings to celebrate and enjoy sumptuous traditional feasts, and to greet the new year with fireworks at midnight.

Lantern Festival night in front of the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall in Taipei, Taiwan. Image via Philo Vivero via Wikimedia Commons.

In the days that follow, festive dance parades are held featuring colorful dragons or lions, ceremonies are held to pay homage to deities and ancestors, children receive money in red envelopes, gifts are exchanged, extended family members visit each other, and there’s more traditional feasting.

The celebration culminates on the 15th day with the Lantern festival; on this night of the full moon, families mingle in the streets carrying lighted lanterns, often creating a beautiful light display.

Bottom line: The Chinese New Year for 2017 starts on February 28. The date is determined in the traditional Chinese calendar, which is a lunisolar calendar system, using both lunar and solar cycles to mark time. Each Chinese lunar year is associated with one of 12 animals in the Chinese zodiac. For 2017, it’s the Year of the Rooster.

from EarthSky http://ift.tt/20kbNFy

Happy New Year of the Rooster from Earthsky! Image via allpicts.

Over a billion people in China and millions around the world will celebrate the the Chinese New Year – the most important of Chinese holidays – on January 28, 2017. It’s a lunar new year and so the date is based on the date of new moon. Festivities continuing for 15 days and culminating with the Lantern Festival. Each year is associated with one of 12 animals in the Chinese zodiac. For 2017, it’s the Year of the Rooster.

Many countries in Southeast Asia celebrate the Chinese New Year, including China, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. It’s also celebrated in Chinatowns and Asian homes around the world. It’s considered a time to honor deities and ancestors.

There are several variations on the mythology behind Chinese New Year celebrations. Most are based on a ugly bloodthirsty monster named Nian that would emerge on the last night of each year to destroy villages and eat people. A wise elder advised villagers to scare the monster away with loud noises. That night, they set fire to bamboo, lit fireworks, and banged their drums. The monster, afraid of the loud noises and lights, ran away to hide in its cave. In another version of the myth, an old man persuaded Nian to turn its wrath on other monsters, not the villagers. Before he was seen riding away on Nian, the old man, actually a god, advised the people to hang red paper decorations in their homes and set off firecrackers on the last night of the year to keep Nian away.

On the first day of the new year, the villagers celebrated, greeting each other with the words Guo Nian, which mean “survive the Nian.” That tradition that has continued to this day, with Guo Nian now meaning “celebrate the new year.”

Enjoying EarthSky so far? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!

Traditional Chinese New Year Decoration. Image via Fanghong via Wikimedia Commons.

Chinese New Year fireworks in Hong Kong. Image via Kroot via Wikimedia Commons.

In China, the familiar Gregorian calendar is used for day-to-day life. But Chinese calendar dates continue to be used to mark traditional holidays such as the new year and the fall moon festival. It’s also used astrologically to select favorable dates for weddings and other special events.

The Chinese calendar is a lunisolar calendar, in other words, a combination of solar and lunar calendars. It has a long history spanning several Chinese dynastic rules from as far back as the Shang Dynasty around fourteenth century B.C.. There are several different symbolic cycles within the calendar, used in Chinese astrology, that make it an intricate and complex measure of time.

A month in the Chinese calendar spans a single lunar cycle. The first day of the month begins during the new moon, when no sunlight falls on the lunar hemisphere that faces the Earth. A lunar cycle, on average, lasts 29.5 days, so a lunar month can last 29 or 30 days. Usually, there are 12 lunar months in a Chinese calendar year. In order to catch up with the solar calendar, which averages 365.25 days in a year, an extra month is added to the Chinese calendar every two or three years. As a result, Chinese New Year falls on different dates each year (in the Gregorian calendar) between January 21 and February 21.

Chinese New Year red envelopes, used for giving money to children, at Dihua Market, Taipei, Taiwan. Image via BCody80 via Wikimedia Commons.

Each year of the Chinese lunar calendar is represented by one of 12 animal symbols of the Chinese zodiac: Rat, Ox, Tiger, Rabbit, Dragon, Snake, Horse, Sheep (Goat), Monkey, Rooster, Dog, and Boar. For 2017, it’s the Rooster’s turn. Travelchinaguide.com says of the year of the Rooster:

Rooster is almost the epitome of fidelity and punctuality. For ancestors who had no alarm clocks, the crowing was significant, as it could awaken people to get up and start to work. In Chinese culture, another symbolic meaning of chicken carries is exorcising evil spirits.

Chinese New Year celebrations traditionally lasts 15 days, from the first day (during a new moon) to the 15th day (next full moon). Each day holds a special significance that varies according to local traditions. But first, before the arrival of the new year, homes are thoroughly cleaned to sweep away ill fortune, and to welcome good luck. On new year’s eve, there are family gatherings to celebrate and enjoy sumptuous traditional feasts, and to greet the new year with fireworks at midnight.

Lantern Festival night in front of the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall in Taipei, Taiwan. Image via Philo Vivero via Wikimedia Commons.

In the days that follow, festive dance parades are held featuring colorful dragons or lions, ceremonies are held to pay homage to deities and ancestors, children receive money in red envelopes, gifts are exchanged, extended family members visit each other, and there’s more traditional feasting.

The celebration culminates on the 15th day with the Lantern festival; on this night of the full moon, families mingle in the streets carrying lighted lanterns, often creating a beautiful light display.

Bottom line: The Chinese New Year for 2017 starts on February 28. The date is determined in the traditional Chinese calendar, which is a lunisolar calendar system, using both lunar and solar cycles to mark time. Each Chinese lunar year is associated with one of 12 animals in the Chinese zodiac. For 2017, it’s the Year of the Rooster.

from EarthSky http://ift.tt/20kbNFy

More Lindzen, if you can bear it [Stoat]

Just a quickie. In response to my last JM points me at The Greening of Planet Earth (1992), featuring luminaries such as Gerd-Rainer Weber of the German Coal Association (featured just in case you were under any illusion that it was only evil USAnian fossil fuel interests causing trouble; those nice sensible well-educated Krauts show similar) and our hero, Lindzen (looking egg-headed to an astonishing degree; but we’re interested in his words, not his looks).

As you’d expect, it is the usual mixture of lies, half-truth, some genuine truth and some things technically true but in practice misleading. The most obvious lie, which L tells with a perfectly straight face, starts at 13:06:

moreover there is virtually no-one who believes that the half degree [of warming this century] is due to greenhouse gases because climate has always varied by itself without man’s intervention

That was published in 1992 so probably made in 1991, presumably in reaction to IPCC ’90. Wiki provides us with a convenient quote from the SPM:

Our judgement is that: global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 oC over the last 100 years…; The size of this warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. Thus the observed increase could be largely due to this natural variability; alternatively this variability and other human factors could have offset a still larger human-induced greenhouse warming. The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect is not likely for a decade or more.

So, indeed, that doesn’t say that warming has – in the technical sense – been detected. But nor does it say the opposite, which L asserts: that no-one believes the warming was human-caused. Since I was around then, I can remember quite clearly what people thought: that the warming was human caused. L, based on the video, was an outlier even then but not so much of an outlier that he didn’t talk to his colleagues: he knew very clearly that plenty of people believed it was human caused. Indeed, there is Hansen’s famous 1988 testimony to the House of Representatives. Could you perhaps argue that Hansen was “virtually no-one”? It doesn’t seem plausible. And anyway, he wasn’t alone. Indeed, the entire point of the bloody video Lindzen is in is to argue against people who did believe it was true; they wouldn’t have bothered produce the video if such views weren’t commonplace.

The rest of the words near there are of the same sort: taking anything inconvenient and not proved as false; and anything convenient and not disproved as true. And don’t miss the appearance of the old and well loved “vineyards in Britain” talking point.

from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2irlcxL

Just a quickie. In response to my last JM points me at The Greening of Planet Earth (1992), featuring luminaries such as Gerd-Rainer Weber of the German Coal Association (featured just in case you were under any illusion that it was only evil USAnian fossil fuel interests causing trouble; those nice sensible well-educated Krauts show similar) and our hero, Lindzen (looking egg-headed to an astonishing degree; but we’re interested in his words, not his looks).

As you’d expect, it is the usual mixture of lies, half-truth, some genuine truth and some things technically true but in practice misleading. The most obvious lie, which L tells with a perfectly straight face, starts at 13:06:

moreover there is virtually no-one who believes that the half degree [of warming this century] is due to greenhouse gases because climate has always varied by itself without man’s intervention

That was published in 1992 so probably made in 1991, presumably in reaction to IPCC ’90. Wiki provides us with a convenient quote from the SPM:

Our judgement is that: global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 oC over the last 100 years…; The size of this warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. Thus the observed increase could be largely due to this natural variability; alternatively this variability and other human factors could have offset a still larger human-induced greenhouse warming. The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect is not likely for a decade or more.

So, indeed, that doesn’t say that warming has – in the technical sense – been detected. But nor does it say the opposite, which L asserts: that no-one believes the warming was human-caused. Since I was around then, I can remember quite clearly what people thought: that the warming was human caused. L, based on the video, was an outlier even then but not so much of an outlier that he didn’t talk to his colleagues: he knew very clearly that plenty of people believed it was human caused. Indeed, there is Hansen’s famous 1988 testimony to the House of Representatives. Could you perhaps argue that Hansen was “virtually no-one”? It doesn’t seem plausible. And anyway, he wasn’t alone. Indeed, the entire point of the bloody video Lindzen is in is to argue against people who did believe it was true; they wouldn’t have bothered produce the video if such views weren’t commonplace.

The rest of the words near there are of the same sort: taking anything inconvenient and not proved as false; and anything convenient and not disproved as true. And don’t miss the appearance of the old and well loved “vineyards in Britain” talking point.

from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2irlcxL

Science can help your New Year’s resolutions stick

We’re all creatures of habit. And at this time each year many of us make, and then quickly break, New Year’s resolutions to be healthier. But where are we going wrong? Could behavioural science help us make better resolutions, and stick to them?

We asked Dr Becca Beeken, senior research associate at UCL, what science says about boosting the chance of living more healthily in 2017 and beyond.

Why do New Year’s resolutions matter?

More than 4 in 10 cases of cancer in the UK could be prevented. And although there’s no guarantee against cancer, you can stack the odds in your favour by making small changes to the things you do each day, such as what you eat and drink.

“January certainly can be a good time to change behaviour in terms of it being seen as a fresh start,” says Beeken.

“It’s a good time to reflect on what’s happened the year before and to think about what you might like to do differently in the New Year.”

But this renewed outlook on health is often accompanied by some unhelpful information around potential quick fixes.

The truth is that fad diets and extreme get fit quick regimes don’t usually work. That’s because they’re too difficult to stick to in the long-term. Instead, Beeken says that building healthy habits into our day-to-day lives could be the best way to make them stick.

What are habits?

“Habits are things you do automatically because you’ve done them frequently in the same context in the past,” says Beeken. “This repetition creates a mental association between the situation (the cue) and the action.”

“When you encounter that cue in future, then you act automatically.”

According to Beeken this is the process that occurs when we brush our teeth every night before going to bed, or lock our doors when we leave home in the morning.

“Sometimes you forget whether you’ve locked the door or not because it’s so automatic.”

Turning healthy behaviours into habits is therefore a good way to make these changes stick. At first it can be hard but the more often you act in the same context, the stronger the mental association becomes and the easier it is to do.

The big advantage is that once it’s a habit, you don’t have to think about doing it anymore. Even if your motivation wanes, or you have other priorities to think about, it’s become second-nature.

It’s often more difficult to break old habits than to form new ones. One way of breaking old habits can be to avoid the environmental cue that prompts the behaviour (for example you could walk a different route home from work to avoid a shop where you usually buy unhealthy foods).

But this isn’t always feasible.

So here we’ll focus on making new healthy habits.

Make your resolutions realistic and specific

So where should we start with making resolutions that can become habits?

I think the biggest mistake people make when making New Year’s resolutions is picking things that aren’t realistic

– Dr Becca Beeken

“I think the biggest mistake people make when making New Year’s resolutions is picking things that aren’t realistic,” says Beeken.

“The best predictor of success is adherence – sticking to it. So it could help to think about what your existing lifestyle is like and what can realistically fit into that and keep up over the long term.”

But that’s doesn’t mean you can’t have big ambitions.

“It used to be that we thought it was better to have small goals. But in terms of weight loss there’s emerging evidence that suggests perhaps this isn’t the case.”

Beeken says that the key to success isn’t the scale of the goal, but focussing on specifically how you’re going to achieve it.

“It’s better to say to yourself: ‘I’m going to eat two portions of vegetables with my lunch and my dinner’ rather than just ‘I’m going to eat more fruit and vegetables,’” she says.

Be specific when setting your resolutions

It’s also important to make sure you think about how to achieve this. For example, having a plan to buy the vegetables, looking up portion sizes, and how you’re going to prepare them.

In terms of forming habits, research has suggested that picking specific events in the day (for example mealtimes or when you come home from work which might not be a set time) as the triggers for your healthy behaviour can be best, especially in a weekday work context.

“Weekdays, certainly for people who have a Monday to Friday job, tend to have a more consistent routine, and it can be easier to build new habits into that routine,” says Beeken.

“In leisure time there tends to be less routine and you might do things differently day-to-day and that can make things more difficult.”

For example, if you want to be more active you could try taking the stairs instead of the lift every morning on the way to work, or use your lunch break as a chance to go for a 15 minute brisk walk.

How to stick to it

When the initial flurry of good intentions passes in mid-January, it can be hard to stick to the changes you’ve pledged.

And, according to Beeken, there is research here too that can help.

“There’s a lot of evidence that monitoring how you’re getting on can really help to ensure that you keep it up over the long-term,” she says.

whether it’s your phone, a calendar, or a notebook by your bed, finding somewhere to track your plans and progress can help

And whether it’s your phone, a calendar, or a notebook by your bed, finding somewhere to track your plans and progress can help.

“Firstly, it reminds you that’s what you’re trying to do,” says Beeken. “Secondly, it can perhaps prompt the behaviour if you have missed it in your usual routine. And, finally, it can be helpful to see the progress that you’re making.”

You’re also more likely to succeed if you make plans for how you’ll tackle challenges.

For example if you’re walking your children to school each morning but it’s raining, making sure you have umbrellas, waterproofs or wellies ready to go can help. Or, if the food provided at work isn’t cheap and healthy, you could get lunch on the way to work to make sure it includes fruit and vegetables.

But what about those days where something inevitably gets in the way? Science says don’t sweat it.

According to the evidence, you probably aren’t any less likely to succeed long-term if you miss a planned walk or healthy snack… as long as you get back to it next time.

“There are always going to be things that don’t quite go to plan but it’s important to get back to doing it as quickly as possible,” says Beeken.

“Try and do it the next day. Don’t see it as a failure; it’s completely normal to have the odd lapse or day that doesn’t work out.”

If things do slip, the challenge is that it might affect how quickly something becomes habit.

“Having lots of days that don’t work out will probably mean that it takes longer for the habit to form because habits are likely to form more quickly the more frequently we do something in that context,” adds Beeken.

So how long will it take for your resolutions to become automatic?

66 – the route to success

It will get easier; you may not have formed a new habit by the end of January but you’ll be well on your way

– Dr Beeken

A study looking at how quickly certain activities – like eating an apple after lunch or doing sit-ups after a morning coffee – became habits showed that unsurprisingly the number of days varied from person to person.

But the average time was 66 days. Not a perfect answer, but this at least gives an idea that you’re looking at months rather than days to make these habits stick.

“It will get easier; you may not have formed a new habit by the end of January but you’ll be well on your way,” says Beeken.

“It might not be completely automatic, but it should be easier than it was at the start of January. It depends on what you’re changing, but if you’re going for a walk or a run every day, over a month you’ll notice improvements in your fitness and how you feel.”

Top tips for weight loss

Many people struggle with their weight and will be focusing on this for their New Year’s resolution. It’s something we should care about because being overweight or obese is the biggest preventable cause of cancer after smoking in the UK.

We’ve worked with Beeken and the team at UCL to develop a leaflet using the research and evidence around turning healthy choices in to habits. The 10 Top Tips leaflet can be ordered for free through our website.

This leaflet has now been shown to be as effective at helping people lose weight long-term as the usual support people can get through their GP, which includes a referral to weight management services. This was surprising given it’s a less intense option, making the leaflet (along with a discussion with a nurse to explain how to use it), a low-cost and effective option.

The team at UCL are also recruiting people for a clinical trial to test whether an app version of the leaflet is as effective. If you’re interested in taking part there is information about the trial on their website.

And whatever your New Year’s ‘be healthy’ resolution is, there are more tips and information on our website to help you along the way.

Nikki Smith is a senior health information officer at Cancer Research UK

from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://ift.tt/2hBIoY0

We’re all creatures of habit. And at this time each year many of us make, and then quickly break, New Year’s resolutions to be healthier. But where are we going wrong? Could behavioural science help us make better resolutions, and stick to them?

We asked Dr Becca Beeken, senior research associate at UCL, what science says about boosting the chance of living more healthily in 2017 and beyond.

Why do New Year’s resolutions matter?

More than 4 in 10 cases of cancer in the UK could be prevented. And although there’s no guarantee against cancer, you can stack the odds in your favour by making small changes to the things you do each day, such as what you eat and drink.

“January certainly can be a good time to change behaviour in terms of it being seen as a fresh start,” says Beeken.

“It’s a good time to reflect on what’s happened the year before and to think about what you might like to do differently in the New Year.”

But this renewed outlook on health is often accompanied by some unhelpful information around potential quick fixes.

The truth is that fad diets and extreme get fit quick regimes don’t usually work. That’s because they’re too difficult to stick to in the long-term. Instead, Beeken says that building healthy habits into our day-to-day lives could be the best way to make them stick.

What are habits?

“Habits are things you do automatically because you’ve done them frequently in the same context in the past,” says Beeken. “This repetition creates a mental association between the situation (the cue) and the action.”

“When you encounter that cue in future, then you act automatically.”

According to Beeken this is the process that occurs when we brush our teeth every night before going to bed, or lock our doors when we leave home in the morning.

“Sometimes you forget whether you’ve locked the door or not because it’s so automatic.”

Turning healthy behaviours into habits is therefore a good way to make these changes stick. At first it can be hard but the more often you act in the same context, the stronger the mental association becomes and the easier it is to do.

The big advantage is that once it’s a habit, you don’t have to think about doing it anymore. Even if your motivation wanes, or you have other priorities to think about, it’s become second-nature.

It’s often more difficult to break old habits than to form new ones. One way of breaking old habits can be to avoid the environmental cue that prompts the behaviour (for example you could walk a different route home from work to avoid a shop where you usually buy unhealthy foods).

But this isn’t always feasible.

So here we’ll focus on making new healthy habits.

Make your resolutions realistic and specific

So where should we start with making resolutions that can become habits?

I think the biggest mistake people make when making New Year’s resolutions is picking things that aren’t realistic

– Dr Becca Beeken

“I think the biggest mistake people make when making New Year’s resolutions is picking things that aren’t realistic,” says Beeken.

“The best predictor of success is adherence – sticking to it. So it could help to think about what your existing lifestyle is like and what can realistically fit into that and keep up over the long term.”

But that’s doesn’t mean you can’t have big ambitions.

“It used to be that we thought it was better to have small goals. But in terms of weight loss there’s emerging evidence that suggests perhaps this isn’t the case.”

Beeken says that the key to success isn’t the scale of the goal, but focussing on specifically how you’re going to achieve it.

“It’s better to say to yourself: ‘I’m going to eat two portions of vegetables with my lunch and my dinner’ rather than just ‘I’m going to eat more fruit and vegetables,’” she says.

Be specific when setting your resolutions

It’s also important to make sure you think about how to achieve this. For example, having a plan to buy the vegetables, looking up portion sizes, and how you’re going to prepare them.

In terms of forming habits, research has suggested that picking specific events in the day (for example mealtimes or when you come home from work which might not be a set time) as the triggers for your healthy behaviour can be best, especially in a weekday work context.

“Weekdays, certainly for people who have a Monday to Friday job, tend to have a more consistent routine, and it can be easier to build new habits into that routine,” says Beeken.

“In leisure time there tends to be less routine and you might do things differently day-to-day and that can make things more difficult.”

For example, if you want to be more active you could try taking the stairs instead of the lift every morning on the way to work, or use your lunch break as a chance to go for a 15 minute brisk walk.

How to stick to it

When the initial flurry of good intentions passes in mid-January, it can be hard to stick to the changes you’ve pledged.

And, according to Beeken, there is research here too that can help.

“There’s a lot of evidence that monitoring how you’re getting on can really help to ensure that you keep it up over the long-term,” she says.

whether it’s your phone, a calendar, or a notebook by your bed, finding somewhere to track your plans and progress can help

And whether it’s your phone, a calendar, or a notebook by your bed, finding somewhere to track your plans and progress can help.

“Firstly, it reminds you that’s what you’re trying to do,” says Beeken. “Secondly, it can perhaps prompt the behaviour if you have missed it in your usual routine. And, finally, it can be helpful to see the progress that you’re making.”

You’re also more likely to succeed if you make plans for how you’ll tackle challenges.

For example if you’re walking your children to school each morning but it’s raining, making sure you have umbrellas, waterproofs or wellies ready to go can help. Or, if the food provided at work isn’t cheap and healthy, you could get lunch on the way to work to make sure it includes fruit and vegetables.

But what about those days where something inevitably gets in the way? Science says don’t sweat it.

According to the evidence, you probably aren’t any less likely to succeed long-term if you miss a planned walk or healthy snack… as long as you get back to it next time.

“There are always going to be things that don’t quite go to plan but it’s important to get back to doing it as quickly as possible,” says Beeken.

“Try and do it the next day. Don’t see it as a failure; it’s completely normal to have the odd lapse or day that doesn’t work out.”

If things do slip, the challenge is that it might affect how quickly something becomes habit.

“Having lots of days that don’t work out will probably mean that it takes longer for the habit to form because habits are likely to form more quickly the more frequently we do something in that context,” adds Beeken.

So how long will it take for your resolutions to become automatic?

66 – the route to success

It will get easier; you may not have formed a new habit by the end of January but you’ll be well on your way

– Dr Beeken

A study looking at how quickly certain activities – like eating an apple after lunch or doing sit-ups after a morning coffee – became habits showed that unsurprisingly the number of days varied from person to person.

But the average time was 66 days. Not a perfect answer, but this at least gives an idea that you’re looking at months rather than days to make these habits stick.

“It will get easier; you may not have formed a new habit by the end of January but you’ll be well on your way,” says Beeken.

“It might not be completely automatic, but it should be easier than it was at the start of January. It depends on what you’re changing, but if you’re going for a walk or a run every day, over a month you’ll notice improvements in your fitness and how you feel.”

Top tips for weight loss

Many people struggle with their weight and will be focusing on this for their New Year’s resolution. It’s something we should care about because being overweight or obese is the biggest preventable cause of cancer after smoking in the UK.

We’ve worked with Beeken and the team at UCL to develop a leaflet using the research and evidence around turning healthy choices in to habits. The 10 Top Tips leaflet can be ordered for free through our website.

This leaflet has now been shown to be as effective at helping people lose weight long-term as the usual support people can get through their GP, which includes a referral to weight management services. This was surprising given it’s a less intense option, making the leaflet (along with a discussion with a nurse to explain how to use it), a low-cost and effective option.

The team at UCL are also recruiting people for a clinical trial to test whether an app version of the leaflet is as effective. If you’re interested in taking part there is information about the trial on their website.

And whatever your New Year’s ‘be healthy’ resolution is, there are more tips and information on our website to help you along the way.

Nikki Smith is a senior health information officer at Cancer Research UK

from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://ift.tt/2hBIoY0

Moon, Venus and Mars after sunset

For the next few evenings – January 1, 2 and 3, 2017 – watch for the moon to sweep past the bright planets Venus and Mars. The moon and Venus are the brightest and second-brightest orbs of nighttime, respectively. Simply look for the waxing crescent moon. That nearby dazzling “star” is Venus. Mars is a short hop above tonight’s moon and Venus, along a line leading up from the sunset point.

Venus is some 100 times brighter than Mars! But you can notice Mars’ distinctly reddish color.

Venus, the second planet outward from the sun, is the planet in our solar system that’s most like Earth in size and mass. It’s just a touch smaller and less massive than Earth. Meanwhile, Earth is more like Mars than any other planet in the solar system. A day on Mars, as measured from noon to noon, lasts only a slight bit longer than one day on Earth: 24.7 hours versus 24 hours for Earth. Also, the tilt of Mars’ rotational axis is almost same as Earth’s: 25.2^o versus 23.4^o.

So Mars – like Earth – has four seasons: spring, summer, autumn and winter. But a year on Mars lasts almost 2 Earth-years, so a season on Mars lasts about twice as long as a season on Earth.

Earth, the third planet outward from the sun, orbits the sun outside of Venus’ orbit and inside of Mars’ orbit. In the parlance of astronomers, that makes Venus an inferior planet and Mars a superior planet.

By the way, another planet, Neptune, is in this same part of the sky, but it’s faint and requires optical aid to be seen. Some recent photos, below.

Never miss another full moon! EarthSky moon calendar for 2017

You need optical aid to see Neptune, but it’s up there, too, in the same part of the sky as Mars and Venus. Greg Hogan caught this beautiful shot on December 30, 2016.

Eliot Herman in Tucson, Arizona caught Neptune and its moon Triton near Mars on December 30, 2016. He wrote about this photo: “24 X 36 mp Nikon D810 images captured with a Nikon 180 mm F2.8, 0.5 sec @ ISO 3200 stacked and then deconvoluted.”

Bottom line: Shortly after sunset on January 1, 2 and 3, 2017, let the waxing crescent moon guide your eye to the planets Venus and Mars. They’ll be in the sunset direction.

from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2iv6ecC

For the next few evenings – January 1, 2 and 3, 2017 – watch for the moon to sweep past the bright planets Venus and Mars. The moon and Venus are the brightest and second-brightest orbs of nighttime, respectively. Simply look for the waxing crescent moon. That nearby dazzling “star” is Venus. Mars is a short hop above tonight’s moon and Venus, along a line leading up from the sunset point.

Venus is some 100 times brighter than Mars! But you can notice Mars’ distinctly reddish color.

Venus, the second planet outward from the sun, is the planet in our solar system that’s most like Earth in size and mass. It’s just a touch smaller and less massive than Earth. Meanwhile, Earth is more like Mars than any other planet in the solar system. A day on Mars, as measured from noon to noon, lasts only a slight bit longer than one day on Earth: 24.7 hours versus 24 hours for Earth. Also, the tilt of Mars’ rotational axis is almost same as Earth’s: 25.2^o versus 23.4^o.

So Mars – like Earth – has four seasons: spring, summer, autumn and winter. But a year on Mars lasts almost 2 Earth-years, so a season on Mars lasts about twice as long as a season on Earth.

Earth, the third planet outward from the sun, orbits the sun outside of Venus’ orbit and inside of Mars’ orbit. In the parlance of astronomers, that makes Venus an inferior planet and Mars a superior planet.

By the way, another planet, Neptune, is in this same part of the sky, but it’s faint and requires optical aid to be seen. Some recent photos, below.

Never miss another full moon! EarthSky moon calendar for 2017

You need optical aid to see Neptune, but it’s up there, too, in the same part of the sky as Mars and Venus. Greg Hogan caught this beautiful shot on December 30, 2016.

Eliot Herman in Tucson, Arizona caught Neptune and its moon Triton near Mars on December 30, 2016. He wrote about this photo: “24 X 36 mp Nikon D810 images captured with a Nikon 180 mm F2.8, 0.5 sec @ ISO 3200 stacked and then deconvoluted.”

Bottom line: Shortly after sunset on January 1, 2 and 3, 2017, let the waxing crescent moon guide your eye to the planets Venus and Mars. They’ll be in the sunset direction.

from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2iv6ecC