By Tom Burke, PhD, MPH
From the earliest days of public health, a clean, healthy and safe environment has been central to ensuring healthy people and communities. Protecting public health is a core part of EPA’s mission, and it is a goal we share with many others, such as the American Public Health Association (APHA).
Dr. Tom Burke and Dr. Georges Benjamin shake hands after signing the MOU.
Today, at the 2016 APHA Annual Meeting in Denver, Colorado, APHA Executive Director Dr. Georges Benjamin and I signed a Memorandum of Understand (MOU) between EPA’s Office of Research and Development (ORD) and APHA.
This partnership will open the door for collaborations that will help strengthen public health protection. From safe drinking water and clean air to healthy places to live, work and play, EPA and APHA are committed to ensuring these basic rights that are so essential to public health. We also share a goal of making sure that science provides the foundation for public health decisions and that public health information is accessible and in the hands of those who need it.
We have made tremendous progress since EPA was established more than 40 years ago. Air pollution is no longer visible in the U.S. and our rivers are no longer on fire. The environmental issues we face today, however, are especially challenging. Climate change, for example, impacts everything from air quality to water resources, agriculture, the built environment, and public health stressors such as temperature and vector-borne diseases. Land use decisions can impact air, land, and water quality, which can ultimately impact public health, and they can influence the social determinants of health – things like social interactions and access to green space. Water quality remains an important issue, with challenges like emerging chemical contaminants, harmful algal blooms, and an aging water system infrastructure.
To succeed in addressing these 21st century challenges, we need strong partners like APHA who share our goals and can get the relevant science and tools into the hands of public health decision makers across the U.S.
EPA and APHA are certainly not strangers, and the environment has long been recognized as a key component of public health. However, this MOU reinforces our shared goals, renews our commitment to achieving a healthy, clean and safe environment for all Americans, and builds a bridge to begin strong collaborations to guide public health protection into the future.
About the Author: Thomas Burke, Ph.D. is the Deputy Assistant Administrator of EPA’s Office of Research and Development as well as the Agency’s Science Advisor. He served as the Jacob I. and Irene B. Fabrikant Professor and Chair in Health, Risk and Society and the Associate Dean for Public Health Practice and Training at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health prior to coming to EPA. Before his time at Johns Hopkins, Dr. Burke was Deputy Commissioner of Health for the State of New Jersey and Director of the Office of Science and Research in the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection.
By Tom Burke, PhD, MPH
From the earliest days of public health, a clean, healthy and safe environment has been central to ensuring healthy people and communities. Protecting public health is a core part of EPA’s mission, and it is a goal we share with many others, such as the American Public Health Association (APHA).
Dr. Tom Burke and Dr. Georges Benjamin shake hands after signing the MOU.
Today, at the 2016 APHA Annual Meeting in Denver, Colorado, APHA Executive Director Dr. Georges Benjamin and I signed a Memorandum of Understand (MOU) between EPA’s Office of Research and Development (ORD) and APHA.
This partnership will open the door for collaborations that will help strengthen public health protection. From safe drinking water and clean air to healthy places to live, work and play, EPA and APHA are committed to ensuring these basic rights that are so essential to public health. We also share a goal of making sure that science provides the foundation for public health decisions and that public health information is accessible and in the hands of those who need it.
We have made tremendous progress since EPA was established more than 40 years ago. Air pollution is no longer visible in the U.S. and our rivers are no longer on fire. The environmental issues we face today, however, are especially challenging. Climate change, for example, impacts everything from air quality to water resources, agriculture, the built environment, and public health stressors such as temperature and vector-borne diseases. Land use decisions can impact air, land, and water quality, which can ultimately impact public health, and they can influence the social determinants of health – things like social interactions and access to green space. Water quality remains an important issue, with challenges like emerging chemical contaminants, harmful algal blooms, and an aging water system infrastructure.
To succeed in addressing these 21st century challenges, we need strong partners like APHA who share our goals and can get the relevant science and tools into the hands of public health decision makers across the U.S.
EPA and APHA are certainly not strangers, and the environment has long been recognized as a key component of public health. However, this MOU reinforces our shared goals, renews our commitment to achieving a healthy, clean and safe environment for all Americans, and builds a bridge to begin strong collaborations to guide public health protection into the future.
About the Author: Thomas Burke, Ph.D. is the Deputy Assistant Administrator of EPA’s Office of Research and Development as well as the Agency’s Science Advisor. He served as the Jacob I. and Irene B. Fabrikant Professor and Chair in Health, Risk and Society and the Associate Dean for Public Health Practice and Training at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health prior to coming to EPA. Before his time at Johns Hopkins, Dr. Burke was Deputy Commissioner of Health for the State of New Jersey and Director of the Office of Science and Research in the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection.
Skywatcher, by Predrag Agatonovic.
Two of the five bright planets rise to great prominence this month, Venus and Jupiter, and they almost seem to balance two sides of our sky. Venus, the brightest planet, blazes in the west first thing at dusk. Jupiter, second-brightest, lords over the east before dawn. Two other planets, Saturn and Mars, join Venus at nightfall in early November. Although Venus and Mars remain evening objects throughout November, Saturn drops into the glare of sunset later this month. The most elusive bright planet – Mercury – might become visible at dusk toward the end of the month. Day by day, Mercury climbs upward from the setting sun as Saturn sinks sunward. These two worlds – Saturn and Mercury – will meet for a hard-to-see conjunction in the evening sky on November 23. Follow the links below to learn more about planets in November 2016.
Brilliant Venus is the “evening star”
Mars, east of Venus, until mid-to-late evening
Bright Jupiter is prominent before dawn
Mercury in bright evening twilight in late November
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Astronomy events, star parties, festivals, workshops
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The waxing crescent moon and Venus adorn the western twilight for several evnings, centered on or near November 2. Read more.
Brilliant Venus is the “evening star.” Okay, it’s not a star. It’s a planet. But people will call it the evening star all the same. In these past weeks, many have noticed Venus and been amazed at its brilliance in the west after sunset. It’s the brightest planet and very, very bright, even though it’s been low in the sky.
Be sure to catch the waxing crescent moon near Venus in early November, as displayed on the sky chart above. Click here for more details.
Venus will climb upward from the setting sun throughout the month, while the planet Saturn will fall downward. Saturn will disappear from the evening sky later this month, but Venus will continue to blaze away in the evening sky for months to come.
From mid-northern latitudes (U.S. and Europe), Venus sets about two hours after the sun in early November, and three hours after sunset by the month’s end.
At mid-southern latitudes (Australia and South Africa), Venus sets about about three hours after the sun in early November, and three and one-half hours after sunset in late November.
Look for the moon near the red planet Mars on November 5 and 6. Read more.
Mars, east of Venus, until mid-to-late evening. After appearing as a bright red light in our sky last May and June, Mars now appears only modestly bright (though still ruddy), a good stretch above dazzling Venus. Venus is so bright that it pops out almost immediately after sunset, but you’ll have to wait until nightfall to see fainter Mars. Look for the moon close to Mars on the evenings of November 5 and 6.
From mid-northern latitudes (U.S. and Europe), look foir the red planet Mars to set in the west around 9 to 10 p.m. all month long.
At mid-southern latitudes (Australia and South Africa), Mars sets in the west at or near midnight throughout November.
Mars will linger in our sky for several more months. Keep in mind, however, that Earth is traveling away from Mars as we speak – moving far ahead of this planet in the endless race around the sun – so Mars is dimming in our evening sky. Mars is in its long, lingering, relatively inconspicuous phase now. It’ll be still visible in the west to the unaided eye – though not at all noticeable – during a conjunction with Uranus on the evening of February 27, 2017.
Mars won’t make its transition from the evening to the morning sky until July 27, 2017. Even so, Mars’ stature in the evening sky will continue to diminish to that of a rather faint “star,” and we expect few – if any – skywatchers to observe the conjunction of Mars and Mercury on June 18, 2017.
The conjunction of Mars and Venus in the morning sky on October 5, 2017, may well present the first good opportunity to spot Mars in the morning sky when it returns from being behind the sun.
Looking for a sky almanac? EarthSky recommends…
View larger | Mikhail Chubarets in the Ukraine made this chart. It shows the view of Mars through a telescope in 2016. We never see Mars as a disk like this with the eye alone. But you can see why Mars was bright to the eye in 2016, and is now fading.
Early November provides your best chance to catch Saturn before it fades into the sunset by the month’s end. Read more.
Saturn fades into the sunset. Throughout November, Saturn edges closer to sunset. It disappears into the sun’s glare later this month. Meanwhile, Venus and Mars will remain fixtures of the evening sky for months to come.
Although Saturn appears respectably bright, its brilliance can’t match that of Venus, the third-brightest celestial body after the sun and moon. Look for Saturn near the waxing crescent moon and Venus, the sky’s brightest planet as soon as darkness falls in early November. This may be the last good opportunity to spot Saturn in the 2016 evening sky, especially from northerly latitudes.
At mid-northern latitudes (US and Europe), Saturn sets approximately two hours after the sun in early November, and only about one-half hour after sunset by the month’s end.
From mid-southern latitudes (Australia and South Africa), Saturn follows the sun beneath the horizon about three hours after sunset in early November, and about one-half hour after the sun by the end of the month.
Southerly latitudes enjoy the advantage for observing the conjunction of Saturn and Mercury after sunset on November 23.
In both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, Saturn will return to visibility in the east before sunrise in either very late December 2016 or January 2017.
Saturn, the farthest world that you can easily view with the eye alone, appears golden in color. It shines with a steady light.
Binoculars don’t reveal Saturn’s gorgeous rings, by the way, although binoculars will enhance Saturn’s golden color. To see the rings, you need a small telescope. A telescope will also reveal one or more of Saturn’s many moons, most notably Titan.
Saturn’s rings are inclined at a little more than 26o from edge-on, exhibiting their northern face. Next year, in October 2017, the rings will open most widely, displaying a maximum inclination of 27o.
As with so much in space (and on Earth), the appearance of Saturn’s rings from Earth is cyclical. In the year 2025, the rings will appear edge-on as seen from Earth. After that, we’ll begin to see the south side of Saturn’s rings, to increase to a maximum inclination of 27o by May 2032.
Tom Wildoner over-exposed Saturn itself to capture this view of Saturn’s moons on June 25, 2016. Visit Tom at LeisurelyScientist.com.
Contrasting the size of Saturn and its rings with our planet Earth via Hubble Heritage Team.
Watch for the moon to be in Jupiter’s vicinity for several mornings, centered on November 26. Read more.
Bright Jupiter is prominent before dawn. Jupiter returned to the east before dawn last month (October). With Jupiter rising earlier and earlier each day before sunrise, Jupiter’s increasing prominence as the “morning star” will be hard to overlook.
Want to see Jupiter? Just look eastward before sunrise. It’ll be the brightest starlike object shining there … very beautiful!
From mid-northern latitudes, like those in the U.S. and Europe, Jupiter rises a solid two hours before the sun in early November and four hours before sunrise by the month’s end.
From mid-southern latitudes (Australia), look for Jupiter to rise about one and one-half hours before the sun in early November and about three hours before sunrise by the end of the month.
By the way, Jupiter shines in front of the constellation Virgo, near Virgo’s brightest star, Spica. Jupiter serves a great reference for learning the constellations of the zodiac, because Jupiter stays in each constellation for roughly a year. So use Jupiter to become familiar with the star Spica and the constellation Virgo, starting now, and throughout 2017.
Watch for the waning crescent moon to join up with Jupiter for several days, centered on or near November 25.
If you have binoculars or a telescope, it’s fairly easy to see Jupiter’s four major moons, which look like pinpricks of light on or near the same plane. They are often called the Galilean moons to honor Galileo, who discovered these great Jovian moons in 1610. In their order from Jupiter, these moons are Io, Europa, Ganymede and Callisto.
Jupiter and its four major moons via Jan Sandberg
These moons circle Jupiter around the Jovian equator. In cycles of six years, we view Jupiter’s equator edge-on. So, in 2015, we got to view a number of mutual events involving Jupiter’s moons through a high-powered telescope. Click here or here or here for more details.
Although Jupiter’s axial tilt is only 3o out of perpendicular relative to the ecliptic (Earth’s orbital plane), Jupiter’s axis will tilt enough toward the sun and Earth so that the farthest of these four moons, Callisto, will NOT pass in front of Jupiter or behind Jupiter for a period of about three years, starting in late 2016. During this approximate 3-year period, Callisto will remain “perpetually” visible, alternately swinging “above” and “below” Jupiter.
Click here for a Jupiter’s moons almanac, courtesy of Sky & Telescope.
You might need binoculars to spot the young moon and Mercury after sunset on November 30. Read more.
Mercury in bright evening twilight in late November. Mercury transitioned from the morning to the evening sky on October 27, 2016. So the solar system’s innermost planet hides in the glare of evening twilight virtually all month long, especially at northerly latitudes. It will be a real challenge to catch the conjunction of Saturn and Mercury on November 23. Both of these worlds sit low in the southwest at sunset and follow the sun beneath the horizon shortly thereafter.
Next month, in December, Mercury will become much easier to view in the evening sky from both the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere.
Possibly, you can catch the thin waxing crescent moon near Mercury after sunset November 30.
Click here for recommended almanacs; they can give you Mercury’s setting time in your sky.
What do we mean by bright planet? By bright planet, we mean any solar system planet that is easily visible without an optical aid and that has been watched by our ancestors since time immemorial. In their outward order from the sun, the five bright planets are Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn. These planets actually do appear bright in our sky. They are typically as bright as – or brighter than – the brightest stars. Plus, these relatively nearby worlds tend to shine with a steadier light than the distant, twinkling stars. You can spot them, and come to know them as faithful friends, if you try.
From late January, and through mid-February, 5 bright planets were visible at once in the predawn sky. This image is from February 8, 2016. It’s by Eliot Herman in Tucson, Arizona. View on Flickr.
Bottom line: In early November 2016, three of the five bright planets appear in the evening sky at nightfall: Venus, Saturn and Mars. Jupiter reigns the sole morning planet. Saturn pairs up with Mercury after sunset Mercury on November 23.
Easily locate stars and constellations with EarthSky’s planisphere.
Don’t miss anything. Subscribe to EarthSky News by email
Skywatcher, by Predrag Agatonovic.
Two of the five bright planets rise to great prominence this month, Venus and Jupiter, and they almost seem to balance two sides of our sky. Venus, the brightest planet, blazes in the west first thing at dusk. Jupiter, second-brightest, lords over the east before dawn. Two other planets, Saturn and Mars, join Venus at nightfall in early November. Although Venus and Mars remain evening objects throughout November, Saturn drops into the glare of sunset later this month. The most elusive bright planet – Mercury – might become visible at dusk toward the end of the month. Day by day, Mercury climbs upward from the setting sun as Saturn sinks sunward. These two worlds – Saturn and Mercury – will meet for a hard-to-see conjunction in the evening sky on November 23. Follow the links below to learn more about planets in November 2016.
Brilliant Venus is the “evening star”
Mars, east of Venus, until mid-to-late evening
Bright Jupiter is prominent before dawn
Mercury in bright evening twilight in late November
Like what EarthSky offers? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!
Astronomy events, star parties, festivals, workshops
Visit a new EarthSky feature – Best Places to Stargaze – and add your fav.
The waxing crescent moon and Venus adorn the western twilight for several evnings, centered on or near November 2. Read more.
Brilliant Venus is the “evening star.” Okay, it’s not a star. It’s a planet. But people will call it the evening star all the same. In these past weeks, many have noticed Venus and been amazed at its brilliance in the west after sunset. It’s the brightest planet and very, very bright, even though it’s been low in the sky.
Be sure to catch the waxing crescent moon near Venus in early November, as displayed on the sky chart above. Click here for more details.
Venus will climb upward from the setting sun throughout the month, while the planet Saturn will fall downward. Saturn will disappear from the evening sky later this month, but Venus will continue to blaze away in the evening sky for months to come.
From mid-northern latitudes (U.S. and Europe), Venus sets about two hours after the sun in early November, and three hours after sunset by the month’s end.
At mid-southern latitudes (Australia and South Africa), Venus sets about about three hours after the sun in early November, and three and one-half hours after sunset in late November.
Look for the moon near the red planet Mars on November 5 and 6. Read more.
Mars, east of Venus, until mid-to-late evening. After appearing as a bright red light in our sky last May and June, Mars now appears only modestly bright (though still ruddy), a good stretch above dazzling Venus. Venus is so bright that it pops out almost immediately after sunset, but you’ll have to wait until nightfall to see fainter Mars. Look for the moon close to Mars on the evenings of November 5 and 6.
From mid-northern latitudes (U.S. and Europe), look foir the red planet Mars to set in the west around 9 to 10 p.m. all month long.
At mid-southern latitudes (Australia and South Africa), Mars sets in the west at or near midnight throughout November.
Mars will linger in our sky for several more months. Keep in mind, however, that Earth is traveling away from Mars as we speak – moving far ahead of this planet in the endless race around the sun – so Mars is dimming in our evening sky. Mars is in its long, lingering, relatively inconspicuous phase now. It’ll be still visible in the west to the unaided eye – though not at all noticeable – during a conjunction with Uranus on the evening of February 27, 2017.
Mars won’t make its transition from the evening to the morning sky until July 27, 2017. Even so, Mars’ stature in the evening sky will continue to diminish to that of a rather faint “star,” and we expect few – if any – skywatchers to observe the conjunction of Mars and Mercury on June 18, 2017.
The conjunction of Mars and Venus in the morning sky on October 5, 2017, may well present the first good opportunity to spot Mars in the morning sky when it returns from being behind the sun.
Looking for a sky almanac? EarthSky recommends…
View larger | Mikhail Chubarets in the Ukraine made this chart. It shows the view of Mars through a telescope in 2016. We never see Mars as a disk like this with the eye alone. But you can see why Mars was bright to the eye in 2016, and is now fading.
Early November provides your best chance to catch Saturn before it fades into the sunset by the month’s end. Read more.
Saturn fades into the sunset. Throughout November, Saturn edges closer to sunset. It disappears into the sun’s glare later this month. Meanwhile, Venus and Mars will remain fixtures of the evening sky for months to come.
Although Saturn appears respectably bright, its brilliance can’t match that of Venus, the third-brightest celestial body after the sun and moon. Look for Saturn near the waxing crescent moon and Venus, the sky’s brightest planet as soon as darkness falls in early November. This may be the last good opportunity to spot Saturn in the 2016 evening sky, especially from northerly latitudes.
At mid-northern latitudes (US and Europe), Saturn sets approximately two hours after the sun in early November, and only about one-half hour after sunset by the month’s end.
From mid-southern latitudes (Australia and South Africa), Saturn follows the sun beneath the horizon about three hours after sunset in early November, and about one-half hour after the sun by the end of the month.
Southerly latitudes enjoy the advantage for observing the conjunction of Saturn and Mercury after sunset on November 23.
In both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, Saturn will return to visibility in the east before sunrise in either very late December 2016 or January 2017.
Saturn, the farthest world that you can easily view with the eye alone, appears golden in color. It shines with a steady light.
Binoculars don’t reveal Saturn’s gorgeous rings, by the way, although binoculars will enhance Saturn’s golden color. To see the rings, you need a small telescope. A telescope will also reveal one or more of Saturn’s many moons, most notably Titan.
Saturn’s rings are inclined at a little more than 26o from edge-on, exhibiting their northern face. Next year, in October 2017, the rings will open most widely, displaying a maximum inclination of 27o.
As with so much in space (and on Earth), the appearance of Saturn’s rings from Earth is cyclical. In the year 2025, the rings will appear edge-on as seen from Earth. After that, we’ll begin to see the south side of Saturn’s rings, to increase to a maximum inclination of 27o by May 2032.
Tom Wildoner over-exposed Saturn itself to capture this view of Saturn’s moons on June 25, 2016. Visit Tom at LeisurelyScientist.com.
Contrasting the size of Saturn and its rings with our planet Earth via Hubble Heritage Team.
Watch for the moon to be in Jupiter’s vicinity for several mornings, centered on November 26. Read more.
Bright Jupiter is prominent before dawn. Jupiter returned to the east before dawn last month (October). With Jupiter rising earlier and earlier each day before sunrise, Jupiter’s increasing prominence as the “morning star” will be hard to overlook.
Want to see Jupiter? Just look eastward before sunrise. It’ll be the brightest starlike object shining there … very beautiful!
From mid-northern latitudes, like those in the U.S. and Europe, Jupiter rises a solid two hours before the sun in early November and four hours before sunrise by the month’s end.
From mid-southern latitudes (Australia), look for Jupiter to rise about one and one-half hours before the sun in early November and about three hours before sunrise by the end of the month.
By the way, Jupiter shines in front of the constellation Virgo, near Virgo’s brightest star, Spica. Jupiter serves a great reference for learning the constellations of the zodiac, because Jupiter stays in each constellation for roughly a year. So use Jupiter to become familiar with the star Spica and the constellation Virgo, starting now, and throughout 2017.
Watch for the waning crescent moon to join up with Jupiter for several days, centered on or near November 25.
If you have binoculars or a telescope, it’s fairly easy to see Jupiter’s four major moons, which look like pinpricks of light on or near the same plane. They are often called the Galilean moons to honor Galileo, who discovered these great Jovian moons in 1610. In their order from Jupiter, these moons are Io, Europa, Ganymede and Callisto.
Jupiter and its four major moons via Jan Sandberg
These moons circle Jupiter around the Jovian equator. In cycles of six years, we view Jupiter’s equator edge-on. So, in 2015, we got to view a number of mutual events involving Jupiter’s moons through a high-powered telescope. Click here or here or here for more details.
Although Jupiter’s axial tilt is only 3o out of perpendicular relative to the ecliptic (Earth’s orbital plane), Jupiter’s axis will tilt enough toward the sun and Earth so that the farthest of these four moons, Callisto, will NOT pass in front of Jupiter or behind Jupiter for a period of about three years, starting in late 2016. During this approximate 3-year period, Callisto will remain “perpetually” visible, alternately swinging “above” and “below” Jupiter.
Click here for a Jupiter’s moons almanac, courtesy of Sky & Telescope.
You might need binoculars to spot the young moon and Mercury after sunset on November 30. Read more.
Mercury in bright evening twilight in late November. Mercury transitioned from the morning to the evening sky on October 27, 2016. So the solar system’s innermost planet hides in the glare of evening twilight virtually all month long, especially at northerly latitudes. It will be a real challenge to catch the conjunction of Saturn and Mercury on November 23. Both of these worlds sit low in the southwest at sunset and follow the sun beneath the horizon shortly thereafter.
Next month, in December, Mercury will become much easier to view in the evening sky from both the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere.
Possibly, you can catch the thin waxing crescent moon near Mercury after sunset November 30.
Click here for recommended almanacs; they can give you Mercury’s setting time in your sky.
What do we mean by bright planet? By bright planet, we mean any solar system planet that is easily visible without an optical aid and that has been watched by our ancestors since time immemorial. In their outward order from the sun, the five bright planets are Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn. These planets actually do appear bright in our sky. They are typically as bright as – or brighter than – the brightest stars. Plus, these relatively nearby worlds tend to shine with a steadier light than the distant, twinkling stars. You can spot them, and come to know them as faithful friends, if you try.
From late January, and through mid-February, 5 bright planets were visible at once in the predawn sky. This image is from February 8, 2016. It’s by Eliot Herman in Tucson, Arizona. View on Flickr.
Bottom line: In early November 2016, three of the five bright planets appear in the evening sky at nightfall: Venus, Saturn and Mars. Jupiter reigns the sole morning planet. Saturn pairs up with Mercury after sunset Mercury on November 23.
Easily locate stars and constellations with EarthSky’s planisphere.
Don’t miss anything. Subscribe to EarthSky News by email
The election is one week off. I think I’ve convincingly demonstrated, here, that Clinton is likely but not certain to win, that Trump has something of a chance, but not a great one, and that the swing states, therefore, matter.
There are a lot of states that are called swing states but are not. There are non-swing states that are slowly becoming swing states. For example, Georgia and Texas may well be swing states for the next presidential election. Virginia has been considered a swing state for so long that this now reliably semi-progressive/centrist vote-for-the-Dems-for-POTUS state probably shouldn’t be considered a swing state any more. Of course, once a state is a swing state, it should probably not be trusted for several election cycles thereafter.
And, of course, there are swing states that are currently busy swinging back and forth and must be paid close attention to. Here are a few observations on this subset of swing states, based on this morning’s polling and my previous model. (A LOT, perhaps a record number, of polls came out over the last 36 hours, most of which are fairly low quality, and I’m mostly ignoring them.)
Right now, it looks like Trump will win Arizona. My model puts Arizona in Trump’s column. Before you object, FiveThirtyEight agrees with me.
My model puts Iowa in Clinton’s column, but polls disagree, and it looks like Iowa is going to be Trump. This may be where my model fails (likely, paying too much attention to Iowans of the past?) Or, this could be where I get to say, later, “I told you so.” This contrast has been developing for weeks, but there hasn’t been a lot of poling data.
Proposal: If Iowa votes for Trump, take Iowa out of the first slot for the next primary season. (Unless Trump wins the election, then, move to Iowa.)
Nevada really is very, very, close but all indicators suggest that Clinton will win Nevada. My model says Clinton will win Nevada.
New Hampshire probably is not on the table any more as an unreliable state, or a swing state. Does anyone know if this has anything to do with Massachusetts and New Hampshire cross border commuting and car insurance? Eric?
Even though my model is very iffy about North Carolina, it does give it to Clinton by a very small margin, and polls suggest that North Carolina is firmly Clinton.
My model currently puts Ohio barely in the Clinton column. Previous runs of this model put Ohio in Trump’s column. Polls suggest it is very iffy. FiveThirtyEight puts Trump one percent above Clinton, suggesting a fair sight better than 50-50 chance of Trump winning there.
Verily, Ohio is the swingiest of states.
I think everyone and every poll and every model is agreed: Pennsylvania is Clinton. But, Pennsylvania has pulled surprises in the past, so don’t turn your back on Pennsylvania. If you find yourself in the elevator with Pennsylvania, check your wallet.
People have been talking about Utah like it matters. It does not and never will. But it is interesting. Don’t confuse “interesting” with “matters.” Trump will win in Utah.
Are we done calling Virginia a “swing state” yet? Clinton.
The election is one week off. I think I’ve convincingly demonstrated, here, that Clinton is likely but not certain to win, that Trump has something of a chance, but not a great one, and that the swing states, therefore, matter.
There are a lot of states that are called swing states but are not. There are non-swing states that are slowly becoming swing states. For example, Georgia and Texas may well be swing states for the next presidential election. Virginia has been considered a swing state for so long that this now reliably semi-progressive/centrist vote-for-the-Dems-for-POTUS state probably shouldn’t be considered a swing state any more. Of course, once a state is a swing state, it should probably not be trusted for several election cycles thereafter.
And, of course, there are swing states that are currently busy swinging back and forth and must be paid close attention to. Here are a few observations on this subset of swing states, based on this morning’s polling and my previous model. (A LOT, perhaps a record number, of polls came out over the last 36 hours, most of which are fairly low quality, and I’m mostly ignoring them.)
Right now, it looks like Trump will win Arizona. My model puts Arizona in Trump’s column. Before you object, FiveThirtyEight agrees with me.
My model puts Iowa in Clinton’s column, but polls disagree, and it looks like Iowa is going to be Trump. This may be where my model fails (likely, paying too much attention to Iowans of the past?) Or, this could be where I get to say, later, “I told you so.” This contrast has been developing for weeks, but there hasn’t been a lot of poling data.
Proposal: If Iowa votes for Trump, take Iowa out of the first slot for the next primary season. (Unless Trump wins the election, then, move to Iowa.)
Nevada really is very, very, close but all indicators suggest that Clinton will win Nevada. My model says Clinton will win Nevada.
New Hampshire probably is not on the table any more as an unreliable state, or a swing state. Does anyone know if this has anything to do with Massachusetts and New Hampshire cross border commuting and car insurance? Eric?
Even though my model is very iffy about North Carolina, it does give it to Clinton by a very small margin, and polls suggest that North Carolina is firmly Clinton.
My model currently puts Ohio barely in the Clinton column. Previous runs of this model put Ohio in Trump’s column. Polls suggest it is very iffy. FiveThirtyEight puts Trump one percent above Clinton, suggesting a fair sight better than 50-50 chance of Trump winning there.
Verily, Ohio is the swingiest of states.
I think everyone and every poll and every model is agreed: Pennsylvania is Clinton. But, Pennsylvania has pulled surprises in the past, so don’t turn your back on Pennsylvania. If you find yourself in the elevator with Pennsylvania, check your wallet.
People have been talking about Utah like it matters. It does not and never will. But it is interesting. Don’t confuse “interesting” with “matters.” Trump will win in Utah.
Are we done calling Virginia a “swing state” yet? Clinton.
By Tamara Tal
Did you know that there are an estimated 100 trillion microbes living on, and in, the human body? These microbes are everywhere – they coat our skin, live in our hair, and carpet our gut. The community of bacteria that line our gut, known as the gut microbiota, expands our ability to process food and chemicals far beyond what the human genome encodes, and functions as a so-called “second genome.”
The project team.
Pictured front: Charles Wood, Tamara Tal (author), Alexander Gearhart . Pictured back: Mark Strynar, Drake Phelps. Not pictured: Doris Betancourt, Nichole Brinkman, Scott Keely, Charlene McQueen, Jeanene Olin, and Jon Sobus
Many studies have reported that microbiota are required for normal development. What’s more, changes to the human microbiome have been associated with multiple diseases like obesity, asthma, diabetes, and multiple sclerosis. Importantly for EPA, some studies are beginning to reveal that microbiota can detoxify or bioactivate environmental chemicals. Basically, those little microbes are doing a lot for us, but we still don’t understand how it all works.
In 2014, our team (pictured left) applied for a Pathfinder Innovation Project (PIP) to study the microbiome and how it relates to chemical safety. The PIP program is an internal competition for EPA scientists to receive time to explore their biggest ideas in environmental research. The key goal of this work is to better understand whether the toxicity of environmental chemicals is modified by gut microbes.
To do this, we developed a zebrafish model to test whether chemical toxicity is reliant on host-associated microbiota. Zebrafish are a small freshwater fish that develop rapidly after birth and are 70% similar in genetic makeup to humans. Since our initial proposal, we have demonstrated that this model can be used to rapidly test whether chemical toxicity is shaped by microbiota by comparing the effects of chemical exposures in sterile and colonized zebrafish. The PIP program has supported this work every step of the way.
4 day old sterile zebrafish larva colonized with fluorescent bacteria (A. veronii HM21: dTomato)
Entering our third cycle of PIPs, the team is now working on a long-term effort that will allow us to learn more about how the microbiome impacts our body’s ability to process chemicals and thereby affect brain development. If we find that resident microbes change the way we process chemicals or that chemical exposures disrupt brain development that is controlled by normal microbial colonization, the way that we assess these chemicals may need to be re-examined.
Read the blog Transforming Science and Technology with Pathfinder Innovation Projects to learn more about the program.
About the Author: Tamara Tal is a Biologist in NHEERL’s Integrated Systems Toxicology Division. The Tal lab studies whether host-associated microbiota modify the developmental toxicity of environmental chemicals. The group also works to resolve how early life stage thyroid hormone disruption impacts brain development and function in zebrafish.
By Tamara Tal
Did you know that there are an estimated 100 trillion microbes living on, and in, the human body? These microbes are everywhere – they coat our skin, live in our hair, and carpet our gut. The community of bacteria that line our gut, known as the gut microbiota, expands our ability to process food and chemicals far beyond what the human genome encodes, and functions as a so-called “second genome.”
The project team.
Pictured front: Charles Wood, Tamara Tal (author), Alexander Gearhart . Pictured back: Mark Strynar, Drake Phelps. Not pictured: Doris Betancourt, Nichole Brinkman, Scott Keely, Charlene McQueen, Jeanene Olin, and Jon Sobus
Many studies have reported that microbiota are required for normal development. What’s more, changes to the human microbiome have been associated with multiple diseases like obesity, asthma, diabetes, and multiple sclerosis. Importantly for EPA, some studies are beginning to reveal that microbiota can detoxify or bioactivate environmental chemicals. Basically, those little microbes are doing a lot for us, but we still don’t understand how it all works.
In 2014, our team (pictured left) applied for a Pathfinder Innovation Project (PIP) to study the microbiome and how it relates to chemical safety. The PIP program is an internal competition for EPA scientists to receive time to explore their biggest ideas in environmental research. The key goal of this work is to better understand whether the toxicity of environmental chemicals is modified by gut microbes.
To do this, we developed a zebrafish model to test whether chemical toxicity is reliant on host-associated microbiota. Zebrafish are a small freshwater fish that develop rapidly after birth and are 70% similar in genetic makeup to humans. Since our initial proposal, we have demonstrated that this model can be used to rapidly test whether chemical toxicity is shaped by microbiota by comparing the effects of chemical exposures in sterile and colonized zebrafish. The PIP program has supported this work every step of the way.
4 day old sterile zebrafish larva colonized with fluorescent bacteria (A. veronii HM21: dTomato)
Entering our third cycle of PIPs, the team is now working on a long-term effort that will allow us to learn more about how the microbiome impacts our body’s ability to process chemicals and thereby affect brain development. If we find that resident microbes change the way we process chemicals or that chemical exposures disrupt brain development that is controlled by normal microbial colonization, the way that we assess these chemicals may need to be re-examined.
Read the blog Transforming Science and Technology with Pathfinder Innovation Projects to learn more about the program.
About the Author: Tamara Tal is a Biologist in NHEERL’s Integrated Systems Toxicology Division. The Tal lab studies whether host-associated microbiota modify the developmental toxicity of environmental chemicals. The group also works to resolve how early life stage thyroid hormone disruption impacts brain development and function in zebrafish.
By Marcia Anderson
Plastic bags are inexpensive, lightweight, durable and made of plastic, which does not readily biodegrade. Much of the plastic ever made still exists. Worldwide, as many as one trillion plastic bags are used each year and less than 5 percent of plastic is recycled. In the United States, according to the EPA, we use over 380 billion plastic bags and wraps yearly, requiring 12 million barrels of oil to create.
1. Turtle ingesting plastic.
Photo: Ron Prendergast, Melbourne Zoo
The big problem with many of these plastic bags is that we are not disposing of them properly. You can find them littering parks, roadsides, and parking lots. When it rains, storm sewers, sewer overflows, and drainage outflows transport litter to rivers which eventually carry the plastic into lakes or oceans. In addition, plastic collects water and can become a breeding site for mosquitoes and other pests. Did you know that it takes just one bottle cap of water for mosquitoes to multiply?
Living on the Atlantic coast, I have become accustomed to plastic bag ordinances. From Washington, DC, to Portland, Maine and numerous coastal communities beyond, many understand the importance of keeping plastic bags from reaching the shore. On the West Coast, Portland, Seattle as well as Los Angeles, San Francisco, and 120 other California towns have plastic bag ordinances. In Texas, 11 communities, like Austin and Brownsville, ban single-use grocery bags. In addition, many mid-western communities have also followed suit.
When I am in New Jersey, I bring reusable bags to the market. So, as creature of habit, I do the same when I visit other communities further from the shore. One of the communities I regularly visit does not have a bag ordinance and it often seems like I am the only one who is using reusable grocery bags. Yet, I recently have seen glimmers of hope.
2. Royal terns with plastic around its neck.
Photo: WaterEncyclopedia.com
Some stores now have signs in their parking lot: “Did you remember your reusable bags?” A few weeks ago, I noticed that some local people were catching on and bringing their reusable bags shopping – just like me. I later found that the local middle school had an Earth Day program to educate students on the dangers plastic bags pose to wildlife. The PTA asked a local store if it would donate reusable bags for each student to bring home. The store was happy to comply and parents are beginning to use them.
Why is it important to keep plastic bags away from our coasts and waterways? In the ocean, turtles often mistake plastic bags for jellyfish and eat them. The bags do not pass through the turtles’ digestive system and block their intestines. They die of starvation. Studies on dead turtles have found that more than 50 percent have plastic in their stomachs. Similarly, seabirds, fish and other marine critters also mistake pieces of plastic for food, or become entangled in plastic, leading to exhaustion, starvation and eventual death. And plastic bags are just as much a hazard for wildlife in interior lakes and waterways.
Are there other reasons to focus on the plastic bags? Most people do not realize that plastic pollution also costs them in the taxes they pay. Some urban communities spend over $1 million annually to remove litter, and plastic bags are a big part of the problem. So, do you reuse your plastic bags or just throw them away? More and more communities are charging 5-25 cents per plastic bag with some shore communities charging as much as $1 per bag. So when the clerk asks, “Do you want a bag?” you should seriously consider whether you really need it.
To learn more, visit: EPA’s Trash Free Waters or NOAA’s Ten Things You Should Know About Marine Debris and the NOAA guide to marine debris and turning the tide on trash.
About the Author: Marcia is with EPA’s Center of Expertise for School IPM in Dallas, Texas. She holds a PhD in Environmental Management from Montclair State University along with degrees in Biology, Environmental Design, Landscape Architecture, and Instruction and Curriculum. Marcia was formerly with the EPA Region 2 Pesticides Program and has been a professor of Earth and Environmental Studies, Geology, and Oceanography at several universities.
By Marcia Anderson
Plastic bags are inexpensive, lightweight, durable and made of plastic, which does not readily biodegrade. Much of the plastic ever made still exists. Worldwide, as many as one trillion plastic bags are used each year and less than 5 percent of plastic is recycled. In the United States, according to the EPA, we use over 380 billion plastic bags and wraps yearly, requiring 12 million barrels of oil to create.
1. Turtle ingesting plastic.
Photo: Ron Prendergast, Melbourne Zoo
The big problem with many of these plastic bags is that we are not disposing of them properly. You can find them littering parks, roadsides, and parking lots. When it rains, storm sewers, sewer overflows, and drainage outflows transport litter to rivers which eventually carry the plastic into lakes or oceans. In addition, plastic collects water and can become a breeding site for mosquitoes and other pests. Did you know that it takes just one bottle cap of water for mosquitoes to multiply?
Living on the Atlantic coast, I have become accustomed to plastic bag ordinances. From Washington, DC, to Portland, Maine and numerous coastal communities beyond, many understand the importance of keeping plastic bags from reaching the shore. On the West Coast, Portland, Seattle as well as Los Angeles, San Francisco, and 120 other California towns have plastic bag ordinances. In Texas, 11 communities, like Austin and Brownsville, ban single-use grocery bags. In addition, many mid-western communities have also followed suit.
When I am in New Jersey, I bring reusable bags to the market. So, as creature of habit, I do the same when I visit other communities further from the shore. One of the communities I regularly visit does not have a bag ordinance and it often seems like I am the only one who is using reusable grocery bags. Yet, I recently have seen glimmers of hope.
2. Royal terns with plastic around its neck.
Photo: WaterEncyclopedia.com
Some stores now have signs in their parking lot: “Did you remember your reusable bags?” A few weeks ago, I noticed that some local people were catching on and bringing their reusable bags shopping – just like me. I later found that the local middle school had an Earth Day program to educate students on the dangers plastic bags pose to wildlife. The PTA asked a local store if it would donate reusable bags for each student to bring home. The store was happy to comply and parents are beginning to use them.
Why is it important to keep plastic bags away from our coasts and waterways? In the ocean, turtles often mistake plastic bags for jellyfish and eat them. The bags do not pass through the turtles’ digestive system and block their intestines. They die of starvation. Studies on dead turtles have found that more than 50 percent have plastic in their stomachs. Similarly, seabirds, fish and other marine critters also mistake pieces of plastic for food, or become entangled in plastic, leading to exhaustion, starvation and eventual death. And plastic bags are just as much a hazard for wildlife in interior lakes and waterways.
Are there other reasons to focus on the plastic bags? Most people do not realize that plastic pollution also costs them in the taxes they pay. Some urban communities spend over $1 million annually to remove litter, and plastic bags are a big part of the problem. So, do you reuse your plastic bags or just throw them away? More and more communities are charging 5-25 cents per plastic bag with some shore communities charging as much as $1 per bag. So when the clerk asks, “Do you want a bag?” you should seriously consider whether you really need it.
To learn more, visit: EPA’s Trash Free Waters or NOAA’s Ten Things You Should Know About Marine Debris and the NOAA guide to marine debris and turning the tide on trash.
About the Author: Marcia is with EPA’s Center of Expertise for School IPM in Dallas, Texas. She holds a PhD in Environmental Management from Montclair State University along with degrees in Biology, Environmental Design, Landscape Architecture, and Instruction and Curriculum. Marcia was formerly with the EPA Region 2 Pesticides Program and has been a professor of Earth and Environmental Studies, Geology, and Oceanography at several universities.
October 30, 2016 image via Curiosity rover on Mars/ NASA/JPL/ASU.
The Curiosity rover on Mars has found a small meteorite on the Red Planet’s surface. According to the Arizona State University, which is involved with several of the rover’s instruments, the small and decidedly un-martian rock on Mars’ surface is probably nickel-iron. Images taken by Curiosity on October 30, 2016 show the small, gray object has some peculiar features found on metallic meteorites.
Although it’s not the first meteorite found by Curiosity on Mars (here’s one from 2014), it’s always interesting to find and study a space rock on the surface of another planet. The Spirit rover, which is no longer operating, as well as Opportunity, still roving on the red planet, have also found meteorites on the surface of Mars.
Mars would be a great place to look for meteorites. Rocks from outer space that fall to Mars’s surface are more likely than on Earth to remain in excellent condition for millions of years. That’s because moisture and oxygen – two of the main culprits that cause weathering in earthly rocks – are found in only very small amounts in the Red Planet’s surface soils.
Also, Mars is closer to the asteroid belt so more space rocks may find their way to Mars than Earth.
Those factors, combined with a thin atmosphere that provides less friction for incoming space rocks, may contribute to an abundance of meteorites on the surface of our neighboring planet.
October 30, 2016 image via Curiosity rover on Mars/ NASA/JPL/ASU.
October 30, 2016 image via Curiosity rover on Mars/ NASA/JPL/ASU.
October 30, 2016 image via Curiosity rover on Mars/ NASA/JPL/ASU.
October 30, 2016 image via Curiosity rover on Mars/ NASA/JPL/ASU.
Bottom line: Photos of the meteorite found on Mars by the Curiosity rover on October 30, 2016.
Take a look at this amazing panorama captured recently by Curiosity
October 30, 2016 image via Curiosity rover on Mars/ NASA/JPL/ASU.
The Curiosity rover on Mars has found a small meteorite on the Red Planet’s surface. According to the Arizona State University, which is involved with several of the rover’s instruments, the small and decidedly un-martian rock on Mars’ surface is probably nickel-iron. Images taken by Curiosity on October 30, 2016 show the small, gray object has some peculiar features found on metallic meteorites.
Although it’s not the first meteorite found by Curiosity on Mars (here’s one from 2014), it’s always interesting to find and study a space rock on the surface of another planet. The Spirit rover, which is no longer operating, as well as Opportunity, still roving on the red planet, have also found meteorites on the surface of Mars.
Mars would be a great place to look for meteorites. Rocks from outer space that fall to Mars’s surface are more likely than on Earth to remain in excellent condition for millions of years. That’s because moisture and oxygen – two of the main culprits that cause weathering in earthly rocks – are found in only very small amounts in the Red Planet’s surface soils.
Also, Mars is closer to the asteroid belt so more space rocks may find their way to Mars than Earth.
Those factors, combined with a thin atmosphere that provides less friction for incoming space rocks, may contribute to an abundance of meteorites on the surface of our neighboring planet.
October 30, 2016 image via Curiosity rover on Mars/ NASA/JPL/ASU.
October 30, 2016 image via Curiosity rover on Mars/ NASA/JPL/ASU.
October 30, 2016 image via Curiosity rover on Mars/ NASA/JPL/ASU.
October 30, 2016 image via Curiosity rover on Mars/ NASA/JPL/ASU.
Bottom line: Photos of the meteorite found on Mars by the Curiosity rover on October 30, 2016.
Take a look at this amazing panorama captured recently by Curiosity
