Who Won The Iowa Caucus 2016? [Greg Laden's Blog]

We don’t know yet! But I will post what I know here when I know it. Meanwhile, you might want to follow live results, which will not be available until evening Monday 1 Feb, here:

Live Results Iowa Caucus

Meanwhile, we can speculate on who might win.

Who will win the Democratic Iowa Caucus?

Recent polling has shown that Clinton has been in the lead, by a substantial but shrinking margin, util recently. Then, Sanders caught up and about two polls back the two candidates were in a statistical tie. The most recent poll, by Emerson, covers January 29th through 31st, and shows Clinton advancing beyond statistical dead heat with an 8 point lead. Recent analysis by the Des Moines Register and others suggest that both Clinton and Sanders are well liked by Iowa Democrats, but Clinton may have some stronger numbers in her base.

In my view, it is too close to call; There is no obvious likely winner. Having said that, if I were to bet five bucks I’d bet on Clinton winning. I would not take a bet for more than five bucks, though.

If Sanders comes to within a few percentage points of Clinton, he still “wins” (as does Clinton) in a way because he meets expectations. If the spread is greater than 8 or 9 point, whoever wins wins big because they exceed expectations. That’s just my opinion, of course. In the end, a close result simply confirms that the Democrats have two viable candidates.

It is also possible that O’Malley will surge. The way the caucus system works tends to X-out candidates that are very low in percentage point. If O’Malley does better than that, he will have exceeded expectations and interesting things could happen.

Who will win the Republican Iowa Caucus?

Trump has been ahead all along, but he has fallen into a statistical dead heat with Cruz over the last few polls. A Trump loss, even by a little bit, will probably be seen as falling below expectations. A Cruz win will probably be seen as surpassing expectations. Rubio is not far down in third place. If he finishes second, or even a very close third, that will be meaningful.

By the way, it is generally true that whoever wins the Democratic Iowa Caucus ultimately wins the nomination, but I’m pretty sure that is less of a certainty with the GOP Iowa Caucus.

Stay tuned, and thanks, Iowa, for your electoral service!



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1QT2UlQ

We don’t know yet! But I will post what I know here when I know it. Meanwhile, you might want to follow live results, which will not be available until evening Monday 1 Feb, here:

Live Results Iowa Caucus

Meanwhile, we can speculate on who might win.

Who will win the Democratic Iowa Caucus?

Recent polling has shown that Clinton has been in the lead, by a substantial but shrinking margin, util recently. Then, Sanders caught up and about two polls back the two candidates were in a statistical tie. The most recent poll, by Emerson, covers January 29th through 31st, and shows Clinton advancing beyond statistical dead heat with an 8 point lead. Recent analysis by the Des Moines Register and others suggest that both Clinton and Sanders are well liked by Iowa Democrats, but Clinton may have some stronger numbers in her base.

In my view, it is too close to call; There is no obvious likely winner. Having said that, if I were to bet five bucks I’d bet on Clinton winning. I would not take a bet for more than five bucks, though.

If Sanders comes to within a few percentage points of Clinton, he still “wins” (as does Clinton) in a way because he meets expectations. If the spread is greater than 8 or 9 point, whoever wins wins big because they exceed expectations. That’s just my opinion, of course. In the end, a close result simply confirms that the Democrats have two viable candidates.

It is also possible that O’Malley will surge. The way the caucus system works tends to X-out candidates that are very low in percentage point. If O’Malley does better than that, he will have exceeded expectations and interesting things could happen.

Who will win the Republican Iowa Caucus?

Trump has been ahead all along, but he has fallen into a statistical dead heat with Cruz over the last few polls. A Trump loss, even by a little bit, will probably be seen as falling below expectations. A Cruz win will probably be seen as surpassing expectations. Rubio is not far down in third place. If he finishes second, or even a very close third, that will be meaningful.

By the way, it is generally true that whoever wins the Democratic Iowa Caucus ultimately wins the nomination, but I’m pretty sure that is less of a certainty with the GOP Iowa Caucus.

Stay tuned, and thanks, Iowa, for your electoral service!



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1QT2UlQ

Take a colorful flight over dwarf planet Ceres

On January 29, 2016, NASA released new animation showing a simulated flight over the surface of dwarf planet Ceres in enhanced color. The movie is based on images from NASA’s Dawn spacecraft, taken between August and October 2015 when the spacecraft circled Ceres at an altitude of about 900 miles (1,450 kilometers).

The color, NASA says, helps to highlight subtle differences in the appearance of surface materials. Scientists believe areas with shades of blue contain younger, fresher material, including flows, pits and cracks.

The animated flight over Ceres emphasizes the most prominent craters, such as Occator, and the tall, conical mountain Ahuna Mons. Features on Ceres are named for earthly agricultural spirits, deities and festivals.

Dawn is the first mission to visit Ceres, the largest object in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. After orbiting asteroid Vesta for 14 months in 2011 and 2012, Dawn arrived at Ceres in March 2015. The spacecraft is currently in its final and lowest mapping orbit, at about 240 miles (385 kilometers) from the surface.

Enjoying EarthSky? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!

Bottom line: An colorful animation shows a simulated flight over the surface of dwarf planet Ceres, based on images from NASA’s Dawn spacecraft from August-October 2015.

Read more from NASA



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1P9gWLA

On January 29, 2016, NASA released new animation showing a simulated flight over the surface of dwarf planet Ceres in enhanced color. The movie is based on images from NASA’s Dawn spacecraft, taken between August and October 2015 when the spacecraft circled Ceres at an altitude of about 900 miles (1,450 kilometers).

The color, NASA says, helps to highlight subtle differences in the appearance of surface materials. Scientists believe areas with shades of blue contain younger, fresher material, including flows, pits and cracks.

The animated flight over Ceres emphasizes the most prominent craters, such as Occator, and the tall, conical mountain Ahuna Mons. Features on Ceres are named for earthly agricultural spirits, deities and festivals.

Dawn is the first mission to visit Ceres, the largest object in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. After orbiting asteroid Vesta for 14 months in 2011 and 2012, Dawn arrived at Ceres in March 2015. The spacecraft is currently in its final and lowest mapping orbit, at about 240 miles (385 kilometers) from the surface.

Enjoying EarthSky? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!

Bottom line: An colorful animation shows a simulated flight over the surface of dwarf planet Ceres, based on images from NASA’s Dawn spacecraft from August-October 2015.

Read more from NASA



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1P9gWLA

Fungi survive Martian conditions on ISS

An astronaut fixes the EXPOSE-E platform onto the International Space Station. Image via ESA

An astronaut fixes the EXPOSE-E platform onto the International Space Station. Image via ESA

An experiment conducted on the International Space Station (ISS) has suggested that fungi might be able to survive on Mars, according to a report in SINC on January 26, 2016.

European scientists gathered tiny fungi that survive in extreme conditions in Antarctic rocks and sent them to the ISS, where they were housed in an experimental platform called EXPOSE-E, which was attached to the outside of the space station.

After 18 months on board, more than 60% of the fungi’s cells remained intact, with stable DNA. The researchers say the results provide new information for the search for life on the red planet.

The EXPOSE-E platform, where Antarctic fungi and lichens are placed. Image credit: S. Onofri et al.

The EXPOSE-E platform, where Antarctic fungi and lichens are placed. Image credit: S. Onofri et al.

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, located in the Antarctic Victoria Land, are considered to be the most similar earthly equivalent to Mars. They make up one of the driest and most hostile environments on our planet, where strong winds scour away even snow and ice. Only so-called cryptoendolithic microorganisms, capable of surviving in cracks in rocks, and certain lichens can withstand such harsh climatological conditions.

A few years ago a team of European researchers travelled to these remote valleys to collect samples of two species of cryptoendolithic fungi: Cryomyces antarcticus and Cryomyces minteri. The aim was to send them to the International Space Station (ISS) for them to be subjected to Martian conditions and space to observe their responses.

The tiny fungi were placed in cells 0.5 inches (1.4 cm) in diameter on the EXPOSE-E platform, which had been developed by the European Space Agency to withstand extreme environments and sent via the Space Shuttle Atlantis to ISS.

For 18 months, half of the Antarctic fungi were exposed to Mars-like conditions. More specifically, this is an atmosphere with 95% CO2, 1.6% argon, 0.15% oxygen, 2.7% nitrogen and 370 parts per million of H2O; and a pressure of 1,000 pascals.

Through optical filters, samples were subjected to ultra-violet radiation as if on Mars (higher than 200 nanometers) and others to lower radiation, including separate control samples.

Rosa de la Torre Noetzel from Spain’s National Institute of Aerospace Technology (INTA) is a co-researcher on the project. De la Torre said:

The most relevant outcome was that more than 60% of the cells of the endolithic communities studied remained intact after ‘exposure to Mars’, or rather, the stability of their cellular DNA was still high.

Section of rock colonised by cryptoendolithic microorganisms and the Cryomyces fungi in quartz crystals under an electron microscope. Image credit: S. Onofri et al.

Section of rock colonised by cryptoendolithic microorganisms and the Cryomyces fungi in quartz crystals under an electron microscope. Image credit: S. Onofri et al.

The scientist explained that this work, published in the journal Astrobiology in late 2015, forms part of an experiment known as the Lichens and Fungi Experiment (LIFE). De la Torre said:

The results help to assess the survival ability and long-term stability of microorganisms and bioindicators on the surface of Mars, information which becomes fundamental and relevant for future experiments centred around the search for life on the red planet.

Enjoying EarthSky? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!

Mark Watney would be proud! Image credit: 20th Century Fox

Fungi survive Mars-like conditions. Would Mark Watney be proud? Image via 20th Century Fox.

Bottom line: A report from SINC on January 26, 2016 describes an experiment conducted on the International Space Station (ISS) in which Antarctic fungi survived Martian conditions after being strapped on the outside of the International Space Station for 18 months. The results suggest that fungi might be able to survive on Mars.

Read more from SINC



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1Q6KB7P
An astronaut fixes the EXPOSE-E platform onto the International Space Station. Image via ESA

An astronaut fixes the EXPOSE-E platform onto the International Space Station. Image via ESA

An experiment conducted on the International Space Station (ISS) has suggested that fungi might be able to survive on Mars, according to a report in SINC on January 26, 2016.

European scientists gathered tiny fungi that survive in extreme conditions in Antarctic rocks and sent them to the ISS, where they were housed in an experimental platform called EXPOSE-E, which was attached to the outside of the space station.

After 18 months on board, more than 60% of the fungi’s cells remained intact, with stable DNA. The researchers say the results provide new information for the search for life on the red planet.

The EXPOSE-E platform, where Antarctic fungi and lichens are placed. Image credit: S. Onofri et al.

The EXPOSE-E platform, where Antarctic fungi and lichens are placed. Image credit: S. Onofri et al.

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, located in the Antarctic Victoria Land, are considered to be the most similar earthly equivalent to Mars. They make up one of the driest and most hostile environments on our planet, where strong winds scour away even snow and ice. Only so-called cryptoendolithic microorganisms, capable of surviving in cracks in rocks, and certain lichens can withstand such harsh climatological conditions.

A few years ago a team of European researchers travelled to these remote valleys to collect samples of two species of cryptoendolithic fungi: Cryomyces antarcticus and Cryomyces minteri. The aim was to send them to the International Space Station (ISS) for them to be subjected to Martian conditions and space to observe their responses.

The tiny fungi were placed in cells 0.5 inches (1.4 cm) in diameter on the EXPOSE-E platform, which had been developed by the European Space Agency to withstand extreme environments and sent via the Space Shuttle Atlantis to ISS.

For 18 months, half of the Antarctic fungi were exposed to Mars-like conditions. More specifically, this is an atmosphere with 95% CO2, 1.6% argon, 0.15% oxygen, 2.7% nitrogen and 370 parts per million of H2O; and a pressure of 1,000 pascals.

Through optical filters, samples were subjected to ultra-violet radiation as if on Mars (higher than 200 nanometers) and others to lower radiation, including separate control samples.

Rosa de la Torre Noetzel from Spain’s National Institute of Aerospace Technology (INTA) is a co-researcher on the project. De la Torre said:

The most relevant outcome was that more than 60% of the cells of the endolithic communities studied remained intact after ‘exposure to Mars’, or rather, the stability of their cellular DNA was still high.

Section of rock colonised by cryptoendolithic microorganisms and the Cryomyces fungi in quartz crystals under an electron microscope. Image credit: S. Onofri et al.

Section of rock colonised by cryptoendolithic microorganisms and the Cryomyces fungi in quartz crystals under an electron microscope. Image credit: S. Onofri et al.

The scientist explained that this work, published in the journal Astrobiology in late 2015, forms part of an experiment known as the Lichens and Fungi Experiment (LIFE). De la Torre said:

The results help to assess the survival ability and long-term stability of microorganisms and bioindicators on the surface of Mars, information which becomes fundamental and relevant for future experiments centred around the search for life on the red planet.

Enjoying EarthSky? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!

Mark Watney would be proud! Image credit: 20th Century Fox

Fungi survive Mars-like conditions. Would Mark Watney be proud? Image via 20th Century Fox.

Bottom line: A report from SINC on January 26, 2016 describes an experiment conducted on the International Space Station (ISS) in which Antarctic fungi survived Martian conditions after being strapped on the outside of the International Space Station for 18 months. The results suggest that fungi might be able to survive on Mars.

Read more from SINC



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1Q6KB7P

Give me five minutes and I’ll give you Saturn in 2016

Saturn is the sixth planet outward from the sun and farthest world that’s easily visible to the unaided eye. You need a telescope to see the planet’s wide, encircling rings, but Saturn is also fun to watch with the eye alone. It shines with a steady light and golden color. Follow the links below to learn more about seeing Saturn throughout 2016.

When can I see Saturn in 2016?

To find Saturn in 2016, look for the star Antares and the Crown of the Scorpion.

Saturn is closest, brightest, opposite the sun on June 3.

Where will Saturn be in the second half of 2016?

Saturn basics.

View larger. For illustrative purposes, the moon appears larger than it does in the real sky. Mid-northern latitudes in Europe and Asia will see the moon somewhat offset toward the previous date. The green line on the above chart depicts the ecliptic - Earth's orbital plane projected onto the constellations of the Zodiac.

View larger. | For illustrative purposes, the moon appears larger than it does in the real sky. Mid-northern latitudes in Europe and Asia will see the moon somewhat offset toward the previous date. The green line on the above chart depicts the ecliptic – Earth’s orbital plane projected onto the constellations of the Zodiac.

When can I see Saturn in 2016? In January and February, you have to wake up before dawn to view Saturn in the southeastern sky. Be sure to wake up early on the mornings of February 3 and 4 to see the waning crescent moon coupling up with Saturn in the predawn sky. See the sky chart above.

In fact, Saturn and his sibling worlds – Mercury, Venus, Mars and Jupiter – all appear together in the same sky – before dawn – from late January to mid-February. This hasn’t happened since 2005. Read more: See all 5 visible planets at once!

Saturn will rise about two hours earlier for each month that follows this one. From mid-northern latitudes, in late March 2016, it’ll rise around midnight local time – that’s midway between sunset and sunrise.

South of the equator, Saturn can be seen earlier. It’ll rise around midnight in late February or early March.

By late April 2016, Saturn will climb into our sky by around mid-evening, and by late May – as seen from around the world – you’ll see Saturn coming up at nightfall or early evening.

June and July will be especially good months in 2016 to view Saturn. The planet will be out all night long, or nearly so. The reason is that we’ll pass between Saturn and the sun on June 3.

At that time, Saturn will be opposite the sun as seen from Earth, to rise in the east at sunset, climb highest up at midnight and to set in the west at sunrise.

Scorpius is one of the few constellations that looks like its namesake. The bright red star Antares marks the Scorpion's Heart. Notice also the two stars at the tip of the Scorpion's Tail. They are known as The Stinger.

View larger. | To verify that you’re looking at Saturn, find Antares and the compact line of three stars – sometimes called the Scorpion’s Crown – to the west of Antares.

To find Saturn in 2016, look for the star Antares and the Crown of the Scorpion. Saturn lodges fairly close to a bright zodiacal star throughout 2016, Antares in the constellation Scorpius. If you’re handy with a planisphere, you can estimate Antares’ position in your sky – then use this star to locate Saturn.

Although Saturn and Antares shine relatively close together on the sky’s dome this year, you can distinguish Saturn from Antares by color. Saturn exhibits a golden hue whreas Antares glowers red.

If you have difficulty discerning color, try using binoculars.

Scorpius is one of the few constellations that looks like its name. You can recognize the entire constellation for the graceful fishhook shape of the stars of the Scorpion’s Tail.

Antares is the bright star at the Heart of the Scorpion. To be sure the object you’re seeing is Saturn, look for three closely-knit, modestly-bright stars to the west (right) of Antares. These stars are an asterism – or very recognizable star pattern – known as the Crown of the Scorpion.

In 2016, the golden light near the Crown of the Scorpion will be the planet Saturn.

Not to scale. An opposition takes place when Earth goes between Saturn and the sun. Via theakumalian.com

Not to scale. An opposition takes place when Earth goes between Saturn and the sun. Via theakumalian.com

Saturn is closest, brightest, opposite the sun on June 3. On June 3, 2016, we will go between the sun and Saturn. Astronomers call this an opposition of Saturn, because the planet will appear opposite the sun in our sky, rising in the east as the sun sets in the west.

June 3 – the opposition date – features the ringed planet at its closest to Earth and brightest in our sky. Saturn is the faintest of the bright planets. It’s still pretty bright, but, normally, you wouldn’t pick it out from among the stars. But around May or June of 2016, you can view Saturn fairly easily, because Saturn appears as bright as the brightest stars. Saturn shines a even brighter than Antares, the brightest star in the constellation Scorpius.

Because we will pass Saturn – the sixth planet outward from the sun – from an inside track around the sun, the ringed planet will look as if it’s going backward (retrograde) in front of the fixed stars of the Zodiac for several months.

In 2016, Saturn retrogrades from March 25 until August 13.

By the way, Saturn’s yearly opposition happens about two weeks later with each passing year. The 2009 opposition was on March 8. The 2010 opposition was on March 21. The 2011 opposition was on April 3. The 2012 opposition was April 15. The 2013 opposition was April 28. The 2014 opposition happened on May 10. The 2015 opposition occurred on May 23, and the 2016 opposition will be on June 3.

So you see that Saturn – like most objects in the heavens – is really very orderly in its comings and goings in our sky. Once you learn to identify it, you can recognize it from year to year.

View larger. | Golden Saturn as seen by the Voyager 2 spacecraft in 1980

View larger. | Golden Saturn as seen by the Voyager 2 spacecraft in 1980

Where will Saturn be in the second half of 2016? Saturn is nearly always somewhere in our sky, for most of every year. In the second half 2016, as Earth moves away from Saturn in its orbit, we’ll see Saturn shift its location in our evening sky. After Saturn’s opposition in June 2016, Saturn will appear farther to the west as darkness falls each month thereafter. Finally, in November of 2016, Saturn will disappear in the western twilight after sunset.

One last thing, for you telescope users: from February 11, 1996, to September 4, 2009, the south side of Saturn’s rings was facing in Earth’s direction. Since then, we’ve been looking at the north side of the rings. Throughout the most of 2016, the rings are inclined at about 26o from edge-on. The inclination will increase to a maximum of nearly 27o by the end of the year.

Saturn yearly observations comparison by Abhijit Juvekar. The rings are even more open in 2016, at a inclination of 26o on the opposition date of June 3, 2016.

Saturn yearly observations comparison by Abhijit Juvekar. The rings are even more open in 2016, at a inclination of 26o on the opposition date of June 3, 2016.

Saturn basics. Earth travels around the sun once a year, while Saturn takes about 29-and-a-half years to orbit the sun once. Earth’s orbit is smaller, and we move faster than this outer planet. So once a year, we pass between Saturn and the sun and gain another lap on the planet.

You might realize from what I just said that Saturn is relatively slow-moving in orbit and, therefore, slow to change its position against the background stars. That’s why the early stargazers called it the oldest of the old sheep.

Like all planets, Saturn is lovely to gaze upon. Its golden color is fascinatingly reminiscent of wonderful spacecraft photos of Saturn. It’s a real place, after all, not just a light in the sky. Plus, Saturn’s brightness waxes and wanes in a subtle way throughout every year, making it fun to watch.

Can you see the rings of Saturn if you look with the eye alone? No, you need a small telescope to see the rings. But, to the unaided eye, Saturn will appear as a bright golden “star” … very beautiful.

And unlike the twinkling stars, Saturn will shine with a steady light. That might help you identify it.

Saturn eclipsing the sun, as seen by Cassini spacecraft in 2006. More about this image. Credit: CICLOPS, JPL, ESA, NASA

Bottom line: The best time for viewing the planet Saturn in 2016 comes in June and July. The ringed planet will be at its brightest and in the sky all night, or nearly so. Why? Because we’ll pass between Saturn and the sun on June 3. Saturn can be found near the Crown of the Scorpion and the star Antares. Enjoy!



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/Ra0DGS

Saturn is the sixth planet outward from the sun and farthest world that’s easily visible to the unaided eye. You need a telescope to see the planet’s wide, encircling rings, but Saturn is also fun to watch with the eye alone. It shines with a steady light and golden color. Follow the links below to learn more about seeing Saturn throughout 2016.

When can I see Saturn in 2016?

To find Saturn in 2016, look for the star Antares and the Crown of the Scorpion.

Saturn is closest, brightest, opposite the sun on June 3.

Where will Saturn be in the second half of 2016?

Saturn basics.

View larger. For illustrative purposes, the moon appears larger than it does in the real sky. Mid-northern latitudes in Europe and Asia will see the moon somewhat offset toward the previous date. The green line on the above chart depicts the ecliptic - Earth's orbital plane projected onto the constellations of the Zodiac.

View larger. | For illustrative purposes, the moon appears larger than it does in the real sky. Mid-northern latitudes in Europe and Asia will see the moon somewhat offset toward the previous date. The green line on the above chart depicts the ecliptic – Earth’s orbital plane projected onto the constellations of the Zodiac.

When can I see Saturn in 2016? In January and February, you have to wake up before dawn to view Saturn in the southeastern sky. Be sure to wake up early on the mornings of February 3 and 4 to see the waning crescent moon coupling up with Saturn in the predawn sky. See the sky chart above.

In fact, Saturn and his sibling worlds – Mercury, Venus, Mars and Jupiter – all appear together in the same sky – before dawn – from late January to mid-February. This hasn’t happened since 2005. Read more: See all 5 visible planets at once!

Saturn will rise about two hours earlier for each month that follows this one. From mid-northern latitudes, in late March 2016, it’ll rise around midnight local time – that’s midway between sunset and sunrise.

South of the equator, Saturn can be seen earlier. It’ll rise around midnight in late February or early March.

By late April 2016, Saturn will climb into our sky by around mid-evening, and by late May – as seen from around the world – you’ll see Saturn coming up at nightfall or early evening.

June and July will be especially good months in 2016 to view Saturn. The planet will be out all night long, or nearly so. The reason is that we’ll pass between Saturn and the sun on June 3.

At that time, Saturn will be opposite the sun as seen from Earth, to rise in the east at sunset, climb highest up at midnight and to set in the west at sunrise.

Scorpius is one of the few constellations that looks like its namesake. The bright red star Antares marks the Scorpion's Heart. Notice also the two stars at the tip of the Scorpion's Tail. They are known as The Stinger.

View larger. | To verify that you’re looking at Saturn, find Antares and the compact line of three stars – sometimes called the Scorpion’s Crown – to the west of Antares.

To find Saturn in 2016, look for the star Antares and the Crown of the Scorpion. Saturn lodges fairly close to a bright zodiacal star throughout 2016, Antares in the constellation Scorpius. If you’re handy with a planisphere, you can estimate Antares’ position in your sky – then use this star to locate Saturn.

Although Saturn and Antares shine relatively close together on the sky’s dome this year, you can distinguish Saturn from Antares by color. Saturn exhibits a golden hue whreas Antares glowers red.

If you have difficulty discerning color, try using binoculars.

Scorpius is one of the few constellations that looks like its name. You can recognize the entire constellation for the graceful fishhook shape of the stars of the Scorpion’s Tail.

Antares is the bright star at the Heart of the Scorpion. To be sure the object you’re seeing is Saturn, look for three closely-knit, modestly-bright stars to the west (right) of Antares. These stars are an asterism – or very recognizable star pattern – known as the Crown of the Scorpion.

In 2016, the golden light near the Crown of the Scorpion will be the planet Saturn.

Not to scale. An opposition takes place when Earth goes between Saturn and the sun. Via theakumalian.com

Not to scale. An opposition takes place when Earth goes between Saturn and the sun. Via theakumalian.com

Saturn is closest, brightest, opposite the sun on June 3. On June 3, 2016, we will go between the sun and Saturn. Astronomers call this an opposition of Saturn, because the planet will appear opposite the sun in our sky, rising in the east as the sun sets in the west.

June 3 – the opposition date – features the ringed planet at its closest to Earth and brightest in our sky. Saturn is the faintest of the bright planets. It’s still pretty bright, but, normally, you wouldn’t pick it out from among the stars. But around May or June of 2016, you can view Saturn fairly easily, because Saturn appears as bright as the brightest stars. Saturn shines a even brighter than Antares, the brightest star in the constellation Scorpius.

Because we will pass Saturn – the sixth planet outward from the sun – from an inside track around the sun, the ringed planet will look as if it’s going backward (retrograde) in front of the fixed stars of the Zodiac for several months.

In 2016, Saturn retrogrades from March 25 until August 13.

By the way, Saturn’s yearly opposition happens about two weeks later with each passing year. The 2009 opposition was on March 8. The 2010 opposition was on March 21. The 2011 opposition was on April 3. The 2012 opposition was April 15. The 2013 opposition was April 28. The 2014 opposition happened on May 10. The 2015 opposition occurred on May 23, and the 2016 opposition will be on June 3.

So you see that Saturn – like most objects in the heavens – is really very orderly in its comings and goings in our sky. Once you learn to identify it, you can recognize it from year to year.

View larger. | Golden Saturn as seen by the Voyager 2 spacecraft in 1980

View larger. | Golden Saturn as seen by the Voyager 2 spacecraft in 1980

Where will Saturn be in the second half of 2016? Saturn is nearly always somewhere in our sky, for most of every year. In the second half 2016, as Earth moves away from Saturn in its orbit, we’ll see Saturn shift its location in our evening sky. After Saturn’s opposition in June 2016, Saturn will appear farther to the west as darkness falls each month thereafter. Finally, in November of 2016, Saturn will disappear in the western twilight after sunset.

One last thing, for you telescope users: from February 11, 1996, to September 4, 2009, the south side of Saturn’s rings was facing in Earth’s direction. Since then, we’ve been looking at the north side of the rings. Throughout the most of 2016, the rings are inclined at about 26o from edge-on. The inclination will increase to a maximum of nearly 27o by the end of the year.

Saturn yearly observations comparison by Abhijit Juvekar. The rings are even more open in 2016, at a inclination of 26o on the opposition date of June 3, 2016.

Saturn yearly observations comparison by Abhijit Juvekar. The rings are even more open in 2016, at a inclination of 26o on the opposition date of June 3, 2016.

Saturn basics. Earth travels around the sun once a year, while Saturn takes about 29-and-a-half years to orbit the sun once. Earth’s orbit is smaller, and we move faster than this outer planet. So once a year, we pass between Saturn and the sun and gain another lap on the planet.

You might realize from what I just said that Saturn is relatively slow-moving in orbit and, therefore, slow to change its position against the background stars. That’s why the early stargazers called it the oldest of the old sheep.

Like all planets, Saturn is lovely to gaze upon. Its golden color is fascinatingly reminiscent of wonderful spacecraft photos of Saturn. It’s a real place, after all, not just a light in the sky. Plus, Saturn’s brightness waxes and wanes in a subtle way throughout every year, making it fun to watch.

Can you see the rings of Saturn if you look with the eye alone? No, you need a small telescope to see the rings. But, to the unaided eye, Saturn will appear as a bright golden “star” … very beautiful.

And unlike the twinkling stars, Saturn will shine with a steady light. That might help you identify it.

Saturn eclipsing the sun, as seen by Cassini spacecraft in 2006. More about this image. Credit: CICLOPS, JPL, ESA, NASA

Bottom line: The best time for viewing the planet Saturn in 2016 comes in June and July. The ringed planet will be at its brightest and in the sky all night, or nearly so. Why? Because we’ll pass between Saturn and the sun on June 3. Saturn can be found near the Crown of the Scorpion and the star Antares. Enjoy!



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/Ra0DGS

Stupid journal boilerplate [Stoat]

DSC_0423-boilers On of the things I used to hate when I was in the game was the stupid boilerplate you were supposed to pad articles with. Since I also discover that RR has 3k posts and I only have 1k733 I thought I’d try to close the gap by a short whinge. Here’s an example from Fifteen years of ocean observations with the global Argo array, Riser et al., Nature Climate Change 6, 145–153 (2016) doi:10.1038/nclimate2872

More than 90% of the heat energy accumulation in the climate system between 1971 and the present has been in the ocean. Thus, the ocean plays a crucial role in determining the climate of the planet. Observing the oceans is problematic even under the most favourable of conditions. Historically, shipboard ocean sampling has left vast expanses, particularly in the Southern Ocean, unobserved for long periods of time. Within the past 15 years, with the advent of the global Argo array of profiling floats, it has become possible to sample the upper 2,000 m of the ocean globally and uniformly in space and time…

Thus, the ocean plays a crucial role in determining the climate of the planet… We already know that, ditto quite a bit of the rest. You don’t need to tell us again. Anyone too ignorant to know that will get nothing out of this paper; it is just a pile of wasted electrons. And this is in Nature, which nominally likes short pithy stuff.



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1SmLa47

DSC_0423-boilers On of the things I used to hate when I was in the game was the stupid boilerplate you were supposed to pad articles with. Since I also discover that RR has 3k posts and I only have 1k733 I thought I’d try to close the gap by a short whinge. Here’s an example from Fifteen years of ocean observations with the global Argo array, Riser et al., Nature Climate Change 6, 145–153 (2016) doi:10.1038/nclimate2872

More than 90% of the heat energy accumulation in the climate system between 1971 and the present has been in the ocean. Thus, the ocean plays a crucial role in determining the climate of the planet. Observing the oceans is problematic even under the most favourable of conditions. Historically, shipboard ocean sampling has left vast expanses, particularly in the Southern Ocean, unobserved for long periods of time. Within the past 15 years, with the advent of the global Argo array of profiling floats, it has become possible to sample the upper 2,000 m of the ocean globally and uniformly in space and time…

Thus, the ocean plays a crucial role in determining the climate of the planet… We already know that, ditto quite a bit of the rest. You don’t need to tell us again. Anyone too ignorant to know that will get nothing out of this paper; it is just a pile of wasted electrons. And this is in Nature, which nominally likes short pithy stuff.



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1SmLa47

Use Big Dipper’s pointers to find North Star

Tomorrow, before sunrise February 2, look for the moon between the planets Mars and Saturn. The green line depicts the ecliptic - the Earth's orbital plane projected onto the dome of sky.

Tomorrow, before sunrise February 2, look for the moon between the planets Mars and Saturn. The green line depicts the ecliptic – the Earth’s orbital plane projected onto the dome of sky.

Tonight, if you can find the Big Dipper in the northern sky in mid to late evening, you can find the North Star, Polaris. The Big Dipper is low in the northeast sky at nightfall, but it’ll climb upward during the evening hours, to reach its high point for the night in the wee hours after midnight. A well-known trick for finding Polaris, the legendary North Star, is that the two outermost stars in the bowl of the Big Dipper point to it. Those stars are Dubhe and Merak. They are well known among amateur astronomers as The Pointers.

Can’t find the Big Dipper? Yes, you can!

It really does look like a dipper, and it’s pretty bright. You just have to look for it at a time when it’s visible. And that’ll be tonight, and for many nights to come over the coming weeks and months … in the north in mid-evening. Once you find the Big Dipper, use the pointer stars to find Polaris, the North Star.

The Big Dipper isn’t a constellation, by the way. Instead, it’s an asterism, just a recognizable pattern of stars on the sky’s dome. It’s part of the constellation Ursa Major, the Greater Bear.

Enjoying EarthSky so far? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!

View larger. | You can use the Big Dipper to identify lots of other sky favorites, too. In this shot, taken around 3:30 a.m. in July 2013, Tom Wildoner shows how you can use the two outer stars in the bowl of the Big Dipper to find the North Star, Polaris. Thanks, Tom!

View larger. | Time of year doesn’t matter. If you can see the Big Dipper, you can find Polaris, the North Star. EarthSky Facebook friend Tom Wildoner shared this shot with us. He captured it around 3:30 a.m. in the month of July. Thanks, Tom!

The two outer stars in the bowl of the Big Dipper always point to Polaris, the North Star. Image by EarthSky Facebook friend Abhijit Juvekar.

The two outer stars in the bowl of the Big Dipper always point to Polaris, the North Star. Image by EarthSky Facebook friend Abhijit Juvekar in India.

Bottom line: Use the Big Dipper to find Polaris, the North Star. Plus, early in the morning on February 2, look for the moon between Mars and Saturn.

February 2016 guide to the five visible planets

A planisphere is virtually indispensable for beginning stargazers. Order your EarthSky Planisphere today.

Live by the moon with your 2016 EarthSky lunar calendar!



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/16QNgUt
Tomorrow, before sunrise February 2, look for the moon between the planets Mars and Saturn. The green line depicts the ecliptic - the Earth's orbital plane projected onto the dome of sky.

Tomorrow, before sunrise February 2, look for the moon between the planets Mars and Saturn. The green line depicts the ecliptic – the Earth’s orbital plane projected onto the dome of sky.

Tonight, if you can find the Big Dipper in the northern sky in mid to late evening, you can find the North Star, Polaris. The Big Dipper is low in the northeast sky at nightfall, but it’ll climb upward during the evening hours, to reach its high point for the night in the wee hours after midnight. A well-known trick for finding Polaris, the legendary North Star, is that the two outermost stars in the bowl of the Big Dipper point to it. Those stars are Dubhe and Merak. They are well known among amateur astronomers as The Pointers.

Can’t find the Big Dipper? Yes, you can!

It really does look like a dipper, and it’s pretty bright. You just have to look for it at a time when it’s visible. And that’ll be tonight, and for many nights to come over the coming weeks and months … in the north in mid-evening. Once you find the Big Dipper, use the pointer stars to find Polaris, the North Star.

The Big Dipper isn’t a constellation, by the way. Instead, it’s an asterism, just a recognizable pattern of stars on the sky’s dome. It’s part of the constellation Ursa Major, the Greater Bear.

Enjoying EarthSky so far? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!

View larger. | You can use the Big Dipper to identify lots of other sky favorites, too. In this shot, taken around 3:30 a.m. in July 2013, Tom Wildoner shows how you can use the two outer stars in the bowl of the Big Dipper to find the North Star, Polaris. Thanks, Tom!

View larger. | Time of year doesn’t matter. If you can see the Big Dipper, you can find Polaris, the North Star. EarthSky Facebook friend Tom Wildoner shared this shot with us. He captured it around 3:30 a.m. in the month of July. Thanks, Tom!

The two outer stars in the bowl of the Big Dipper always point to Polaris, the North Star. Image by EarthSky Facebook friend Abhijit Juvekar.

The two outer stars in the bowl of the Big Dipper always point to Polaris, the North Star. Image by EarthSky Facebook friend Abhijit Juvekar in India.

Bottom line: Use the Big Dipper to find Polaris, the North Star. Plus, early in the morning on February 2, look for the moon between Mars and Saturn.

February 2016 guide to the five visible planets

A planisphere is virtually indispensable for beginning stargazers. Order your EarthSky Planisphere today.

Live by the moon with your 2016 EarthSky lunar calendar!



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/16QNgUt

From deep in the heart of the “organized campaign” against Judy Wilyman’s antivaccine PhD thesis [Respectful Insolence]

Politicians and activists know that one of the most effective ways to discredit critics is to try to portray them as (1) being in the pay of someone else, such as a big corporation, or (2) part of an “organized” effort to criticize them, or (3) preferably both. That’s why antivaccine cranks are so fast to deploy the “pharma shill gambit” and cranks like Sharyl Attkisson like to accuse their critics of “astroturfing.” Of course, astroturfing, which is the practice of trying to make a public relations campaign promoting a message appear to originate organically from the grassroots rather than from a controlling source like a political campaign or corporation, does exist and is a problem. If astroturfing didn’t exist, this particular accusation wouldn’t be so effective in persuading believers that criticism of their belief is all one big conspiracy. However, when accusations of “astroturfing” are leveled against bloggers and skeptics criticizing pseudoscience, they’re almost always false.

Sometimes, one doesn’t have to go so far as to make the accusation of “astroturfing.” Sometimes, it’s enough just to accuse those criticizing you of being part of an “organized campaign,” which is basically very similar to an accusation of astroturfing but doesn’t require that there be a paymaster. Then, if you claim that this “organized campaign” originates from a group or organization that you detest (and, presumably, your followers also detest), it’s a powerful tool to keep any valid criticism from entering your followers’ minds and possibly making them think about their beliefs.

I bring this up because those of us who have been critical of the University of Wollongong in Australia for granting a PhD to an antivaccine campaigner named Judy Wilyman, who is affiliated with Meryl Dorey and the Australian Vaccination (Skeptics) Network, have just been subject to such a rhetorical attack from—who else?—Wilyman’s thesis advisor Brian Martin. Recall that in January it was announced that Wilyman’s thesis, A critical analysis of the Australian government’s rationale for its vaccination policy, had been accepted by the University of Wollongong, or, as I put it, that the University of Wollongong had issued a PhD in antivaccine pseudoscience. I did not say that lightly, because I had actually perused Wilyman’s thesis and found many obvious errors in fact and interpretation, many of which were nothing more than warmed over antivaccine talking points with which regular readers of this blog have become well familiar. I wasn’t alone, either. Alison Campbell also agreed that Wilyman’s thesis was lacking in academic rigor. It didn’t take long for Martin to leap to Wilyman’s defense by characterizing criticism of the university for granting Wilyman a PhD as the “suppression of dissent” again and again.

Well, Martin is at it again, with another post on his website, this one entitled An orchestrated attack on a PhD thesis. Yes, the title of his post tells you why I introduced my post the way I did. Another reason that Martin’s article caught my attention is that it used a screenshot of one of my three previous posts on the topic, basically accusing me of being part of the “orchestrated” attack. And who’s orchestrating this attack, in Martin’s view? Take a guess.

That’s right. Martin accuses Australian pro-science group Stop the Australian Vaccination Network (SAVN) of being behind the whole nefariously “orchestrated” attack on Wilyman, the University of Wollongong, and, of course, himself. Hilariously, while doing so Martin posits a false dichotomy:

Judy had been under attack by SAVNers for several years. Therefore, I and others at the University of Wollongong correctly assumed there would be a hostile response to her graduation. Consider two hypotheses for how I and university officials would behave in this situation.

Hypothesis 1. We would push through a sub-standard thesis.

Hypothesis 2. We would take extra care to ensure that the thesis was of requisite quality and that all university processes were followed carefully. This would include sending the thesis to technical experts and choosing external examiners of high standing.

To me, it beggars belief that anyone would believe hypothesis 1, especially given that outsiders lack information about the operation of university processes. Yet in practice it seems that many outsiders, based on limited knowledge, assume that the thesis must be no good, my supervision was inadequate and the university was derelict.

The rush to condemn the thesis and the university can be understood this way: opponents assume it is impossible to undertake a scholarly critique of vaccination policy (or at least impossible for Judy to do so). Therefore, they condemn everyone involved in the process.

Actually, there’s a straw man there, too. No one—and I mean no one, least of all SAVN—claims that it is impossible to undertake a scholarly critique of vaccination policy. No one. Admittedly, SAVN did, of course, seriously question whether it was possible for Wilyman to do so—and with good reason, it turns out, based on the final product that she produced. After all, is it really so unreasonable to question whether someone who has a long history of spewing antivaccine misinformation for years was capable of an objective, scholarly treatment of Australian vaccination policy? Again, it is not, and, based on the finished product produced by Wilyman under Martin’s guidance, the SAVN was quite justified in its concern.

As for the two hypotheses, this is a bit of a false dichotomy. Although it is not unreasonable to wonder whether Martin would push through a substandard thesis—after all, Wilyman’s thesis was, by any reasonable academic standard, very substandard—another hypothesis that could explain what happened was that the University of Wollongong had a system that allowed a substandard thesis like Wilyman’s to slip through. In any event, Hypothesis 2 just cracks me up. Is Martin really claiming that he took extra care to make sure that the thesis was of requisite quality? Based on the finished product, it is to laugh. I suppose he might honestly believe that he did this, but if that’s the case that says more about his cluelessness than anything. Of course, no one is questioning whether all university processes were followed. Unfortunately, it appears that they were. It’s the university processes that allowed such a piece of crap to pass muster that skeptics question, not whether the thesis made it through all the requisite university processes. In fact, the University of Wollongong must agree that there could be something wrong with its processes, as it has undertaken a review of its processes. Unfortunately, that review won’t assess current or past PhDs, which means Wilyman’s thesis is exempt from this review.

Of course, everyone who’s critically read Wilyman’s thesis can’t help but ask: Who were these “technical experts and external examiners of high standing” who signed off on Wilyman’s thesis? Certainly I did. Unfortunately, the neither the University, Wilyman, nor Martin are telling. Nor does there appear to be any way to force them to reveal who the reviewers were who signed off on this monstrosity. I note that this is in marked contrast to the US, at least where I got my PhD and the two universities at which I’ve been faculty during the course of my career thus far, where the thesis committee signs off on the thesis, which is publicly published. If Martin wants to really convince people that Wilyman’s thesis was critiqued by real experts, he has but to release their names. He does not, and that tells me all I need to know about his claim. It is puffery, nothing more.

In his latest screed, Martin trods a lot of the same ground that he’s trod before. For instance, he regurgitates the same four “tell-tale signs indicating when these [criticisms] are not genuine concerns about quality and probity but instead part of a campaign to denigrate viewpoints they oppose.” I’ve dealt with these twice before and see not need to deal with them again here other than to express exasperation at how Martin keeps repeating them and failing to show that any of them apply in this situation, particularly #2 (“they concentrate on alleged flaws in the work, focusing on small details and ignoring the central points”). No, no, no, no! Critics all pointed out that Wilyman’s central points were bollocks (as my British and Australian friends would say) and a load of fetid dingo’s kidneys (as I like to say). They also explained why. Moreover, these “small details” matter if they are used to support those central points. Getting them so egregiously wrong casts doubt on the central points.

OK, I’ll stop now. I said I wouldn’t cover the same ground again, but that #2 just annoys the hell out of me, as Marin is either deluded or lying when he claims Wilyman’s critics do that. (Take your pick.)

Amusingly, Martin is oh-so-unhappy that Wilyman’s critics have been so academically uncivil as to express their concerns in public. I mean, how very unsporting of them:

When raising concerns about a piece of research, the normal scholarly route is to send them to the author, inviting a reply, not to immediately publicise them via journalists. An alternative is to submit them to a scholarly journal for publication, in which case many editors would invite the author to reply.

Alleging there are errors in a piece of work does not on its own challenge the central arguments in the work. For this, addressing those arguments directly is necessary. Very few of the critics of Judy’s thesis have addressed any of its central themes. (Tell-tale sign 2)

Ack! #2 again! No, no, no, no. Wilyman’s central themes have been addressed. Repeatedly. Moreover, when there are so many basic errors in science and fact in a thesis, naturally the central themes must be called into question. How many times do I have to repeat this?

As for Martin’s indignation that Wilyman’s critics didn’t send their criticisms to the author to invite a reply or publish them in a scholarly journal, I make two observations. First, how does he know that there won’t be submissions to scholarly journals? It’s only been three weeks since the thesis acceptance was announced, which is a mighty short time frame to write any sort of academic paper. Second, why on earth does he think anyone should write to Wilyman (or him) when she (as well as he) has made it abundantly clear how she responds to criticism. No, Martin is just trying to pre-emptively dismiss his critics, as he does here as well:

Many opponents of the thesis and critics of the university have declared this issue is not about academic freedom but about academic standards. This claim would be more convincing if these opponents had ever made scholarly contributions about academic freedom or if they were not making self-interested judgements about their own behaviour. Their actions show their agenda is suppression of dissent.

That’s right. According to Martin, if you haven’t made a scholarly contribution regarding academic freedom, then STFU. Who’s trying to suppress freedom of speech now? This bit is particularly hilarious in light of his wanting to have it both ways:

This is a familiar theme within scientific controversies: critics of the epistemologically dominant view are dismissed because they are not suitably qualified. There is another way to look at policy issues: all citizens should be able to have an input, especially those with a stake in the outcomes. This participatory view about science policy has been well articulated over several decades, but few of those commenting about Australian vaccination policy even seem to recognise it exists.

In other words, expertise doesn’t matter if you’re Wilyman or someone criticizing the “epistemologically dominant view,” because “all citizens should be able to have an input.” Of course, Martin is being disingenuous (quelle surprise!) in that his is a view that applies to public discourse, not to the granting of PhD thesis and that, when it’s convenient to him, he invokes lack of perceived expertise as a reason to tar his opponents as being ideologically motivated. He does it again here:

The intensive scrutiny of Judy’s thesis on its own does not enable a judgement of its quality, because it is necessary to benchmark against other comparable theses. None of her critics has attempted a similarly intensive scrutiny of any other thesis, much less a set of theses large enough to enable a fair assessment of her work. Experienced examiners have assessed many theses, as supervisors and/or examiners, and are well placed to make the required judgements about quality. This is in stark contrast to outside critics, many of whom lack any experience of thesis supervision or examination. (Tell-tale sign 3)

Well, I have been on several thesis committees; so I do not lack experience of thesis supervision or examination. I know what makes a good thesis. No doubt Martin’s response to that if he sees this (and I suspect he will given that he used a screenshot of one of my previous posts) would be that my expertise is in the sciences, not the humanities. That is true, but irrelevant in this case. Why? It’s because, even not having judged theses from the humanities, I know that, whatever the conclusion of a thesis is, regardless of academic discipline, it should be backed by sound research, a fair and accurate citing of previous work, and logical arguments. Wilyman’s thesis fails egregiously in all of these areas.

Finally, Martin concludes:

It is apparent that academics and universities need to do more to explain what they do and to explain the meaning and significance of academic freedom.

I’d tend to agree. We as academics in particular need to explain that “academic freedom” should not be a cover to promulgate any half-baked conspiracy theory bolstered by pseudoscience that best suits the preconceived beliefs of an academic. Nor should a thesis rooted in these things be considered acceptable by any university anywhere.

Thus endeth my part of the “organized campaign” against Brian Martin and Judy Wilyman. That’s sarcasm, Prof. Martin, in case you don’t realize it.



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1UC9DzN

Politicians and activists know that one of the most effective ways to discredit critics is to try to portray them as (1) being in the pay of someone else, such as a big corporation, or (2) part of an “organized” effort to criticize them, or (3) preferably both. That’s why antivaccine cranks are so fast to deploy the “pharma shill gambit” and cranks like Sharyl Attkisson like to accuse their critics of “astroturfing.” Of course, astroturfing, which is the practice of trying to make a public relations campaign promoting a message appear to originate organically from the grassroots rather than from a controlling source like a political campaign or corporation, does exist and is a problem. If astroturfing didn’t exist, this particular accusation wouldn’t be so effective in persuading believers that criticism of their belief is all one big conspiracy. However, when accusations of “astroturfing” are leveled against bloggers and skeptics criticizing pseudoscience, they’re almost always false.

Sometimes, one doesn’t have to go so far as to make the accusation of “astroturfing.” Sometimes, it’s enough just to accuse those criticizing you of being part of an “organized campaign,” which is basically very similar to an accusation of astroturfing but doesn’t require that there be a paymaster. Then, if you claim that this “organized campaign” originates from a group or organization that you detest (and, presumably, your followers also detest), it’s a powerful tool to keep any valid criticism from entering your followers’ minds and possibly making them think about their beliefs.

I bring this up because those of us who have been critical of the University of Wollongong in Australia for granting a PhD to an antivaccine campaigner named Judy Wilyman, who is affiliated with Meryl Dorey and the Australian Vaccination (Skeptics) Network, have just been subject to such a rhetorical attack from—who else?—Wilyman’s thesis advisor Brian Martin. Recall that in January it was announced that Wilyman’s thesis, A critical analysis of the Australian government’s rationale for its vaccination policy, had been accepted by the University of Wollongong, or, as I put it, that the University of Wollongong had issued a PhD in antivaccine pseudoscience. I did not say that lightly, because I had actually perused Wilyman’s thesis and found many obvious errors in fact and interpretation, many of which were nothing more than warmed over antivaccine talking points with which regular readers of this blog have become well familiar. I wasn’t alone, either. Alison Campbell also agreed that Wilyman’s thesis was lacking in academic rigor. It didn’t take long for Martin to leap to Wilyman’s defense by characterizing criticism of the university for granting Wilyman a PhD as the “suppression of dissent” again and again.

Well, Martin is at it again, with another post on his website, this one entitled An orchestrated attack on a PhD thesis. Yes, the title of his post tells you why I introduced my post the way I did. Another reason that Martin’s article caught my attention is that it used a screenshot of one of my three previous posts on the topic, basically accusing me of being part of the “orchestrated” attack. And who’s orchestrating this attack, in Martin’s view? Take a guess.

That’s right. Martin accuses Australian pro-science group Stop the Australian Vaccination Network (SAVN) of being behind the whole nefariously “orchestrated” attack on Wilyman, the University of Wollongong, and, of course, himself. Hilariously, while doing so Martin posits a false dichotomy:

Judy had been under attack by SAVNers for several years. Therefore, I and others at the University of Wollongong correctly assumed there would be a hostile response to her graduation. Consider two hypotheses for how I and university officials would behave in this situation.

Hypothesis 1. We would push through a sub-standard thesis.

Hypothesis 2. We would take extra care to ensure that the thesis was of requisite quality and that all university processes were followed carefully. This would include sending the thesis to technical experts and choosing external examiners of high standing.

To me, it beggars belief that anyone would believe hypothesis 1, especially given that outsiders lack information about the operation of university processes. Yet in practice it seems that many outsiders, based on limited knowledge, assume that the thesis must be no good, my supervision was inadequate and the university was derelict.

The rush to condemn the thesis and the university can be understood this way: opponents assume it is impossible to undertake a scholarly critique of vaccination policy (or at least impossible for Judy to do so). Therefore, they condemn everyone involved in the process.

Actually, there’s a straw man there, too. No one—and I mean no one, least of all SAVN—claims that it is impossible to undertake a scholarly critique of vaccination policy. No one. Admittedly, SAVN did, of course, seriously question whether it was possible for Wilyman to do so—and with good reason, it turns out, based on the final product that she produced. After all, is it really so unreasonable to question whether someone who has a long history of spewing antivaccine misinformation for years was capable of an objective, scholarly treatment of Australian vaccination policy? Again, it is not, and, based on the finished product produced by Wilyman under Martin’s guidance, the SAVN was quite justified in its concern.

As for the two hypotheses, this is a bit of a false dichotomy. Although it is not unreasonable to wonder whether Martin would push through a substandard thesis—after all, Wilyman’s thesis was, by any reasonable academic standard, very substandard—another hypothesis that could explain what happened was that the University of Wollongong had a system that allowed a substandard thesis like Wilyman’s to slip through. In any event, Hypothesis 2 just cracks me up. Is Martin really claiming that he took extra care to make sure that the thesis was of requisite quality? Based on the finished product, it is to laugh. I suppose he might honestly believe that he did this, but if that’s the case that says more about his cluelessness than anything. Of course, no one is questioning whether all university processes were followed. Unfortunately, it appears that they were. It’s the university processes that allowed such a piece of crap to pass muster that skeptics question, not whether the thesis made it through all the requisite university processes. In fact, the University of Wollongong must agree that there could be something wrong with its processes, as it has undertaken a review of its processes. Unfortunately, that review won’t assess current or past PhDs, which means Wilyman’s thesis is exempt from this review.

Of course, everyone who’s critically read Wilyman’s thesis can’t help but ask: Who were these “technical experts and external examiners of high standing” who signed off on Wilyman’s thesis? Certainly I did. Unfortunately, the neither the University, Wilyman, nor Martin are telling. Nor does there appear to be any way to force them to reveal who the reviewers were who signed off on this monstrosity. I note that this is in marked contrast to the US, at least where I got my PhD and the two universities at which I’ve been faculty during the course of my career thus far, where the thesis committee signs off on the thesis, which is publicly published. If Martin wants to really convince people that Wilyman’s thesis was critiqued by real experts, he has but to release their names. He does not, and that tells me all I need to know about his claim. It is puffery, nothing more.

In his latest screed, Martin trods a lot of the same ground that he’s trod before. For instance, he regurgitates the same four “tell-tale signs indicating when these [criticisms] are not genuine concerns about quality and probity but instead part of a campaign to denigrate viewpoints they oppose.” I’ve dealt with these twice before and see not need to deal with them again here other than to express exasperation at how Martin keeps repeating them and failing to show that any of them apply in this situation, particularly #2 (“they concentrate on alleged flaws in the work, focusing on small details and ignoring the central points”). No, no, no, no! Critics all pointed out that Wilyman’s central points were bollocks (as my British and Australian friends would say) and a load of fetid dingo’s kidneys (as I like to say). They also explained why. Moreover, these “small details” matter if they are used to support those central points. Getting them so egregiously wrong casts doubt on the central points.

OK, I’ll stop now. I said I wouldn’t cover the same ground again, but that #2 just annoys the hell out of me, as Marin is either deluded or lying when he claims Wilyman’s critics do that. (Take your pick.)

Amusingly, Martin is oh-so-unhappy that Wilyman’s critics have been so academically uncivil as to express their concerns in public. I mean, how very unsporting of them:

When raising concerns about a piece of research, the normal scholarly route is to send them to the author, inviting a reply, not to immediately publicise them via journalists. An alternative is to submit them to a scholarly journal for publication, in which case many editors would invite the author to reply.

Alleging there are errors in a piece of work does not on its own challenge the central arguments in the work. For this, addressing those arguments directly is necessary. Very few of the critics of Judy’s thesis have addressed any of its central themes. (Tell-tale sign 2)

Ack! #2 again! No, no, no, no. Wilyman’s central themes have been addressed. Repeatedly. Moreover, when there are so many basic errors in science and fact in a thesis, naturally the central themes must be called into question. How many times do I have to repeat this?

As for Martin’s indignation that Wilyman’s critics didn’t send their criticisms to the author to invite a reply or publish them in a scholarly journal, I make two observations. First, how does he know that there won’t be submissions to scholarly journals? It’s only been three weeks since the thesis acceptance was announced, which is a mighty short time frame to write any sort of academic paper. Second, why on earth does he think anyone should write to Wilyman (or him) when she (as well as he) has made it abundantly clear how she responds to criticism. No, Martin is just trying to pre-emptively dismiss his critics, as he does here as well:

Many opponents of the thesis and critics of the university have declared this issue is not about academic freedom but about academic standards. This claim would be more convincing if these opponents had ever made scholarly contributions about academic freedom or if they were not making self-interested judgements about their own behaviour. Their actions show their agenda is suppression of dissent.

That’s right. According to Martin, if you haven’t made a scholarly contribution regarding academic freedom, then STFU. Who’s trying to suppress freedom of speech now? This bit is particularly hilarious in light of his wanting to have it both ways:

This is a familiar theme within scientific controversies: critics of the epistemologically dominant view are dismissed because they are not suitably qualified. There is another way to look at policy issues: all citizens should be able to have an input, especially those with a stake in the outcomes. This participatory view about science policy has been well articulated over several decades, but few of those commenting about Australian vaccination policy even seem to recognise it exists.

In other words, expertise doesn’t matter if you’re Wilyman or someone criticizing the “epistemologically dominant view,” because “all citizens should be able to have an input.” Of course, Martin is being disingenuous (quelle surprise!) in that his is a view that applies to public discourse, not to the granting of PhD thesis and that, when it’s convenient to him, he invokes lack of perceived expertise as a reason to tar his opponents as being ideologically motivated. He does it again here:

The intensive scrutiny of Judy’s thesis on its own does not enable a judgement of its quality, because it is necessary to benchmark against other comparable theses. None of her critics has attempted a similarly intensive scrutiny of any other thesis, much less a set of theses large enough to enable a fair assessment of her work. Experienced examiners have assessed many theses, as supervisors and/or examiners, and are well placed to make the required judgements about quality. This is in stark contrast to outside critics, many of whom lack any experience of thesis supervision or examination. (Tell-tale sign 3)

Well, I have been on several thesis committees; so I do not lack experience of thesis supervision or examination. I know what makes a good thesis. No doubt Martin’s response to that if he sees this (and I suspect he will given that he used a screenshot of one of my previous posts) would be that my expertise is in the sciences, not the humanities. That is true, but irrelevant in this case. Why? It’s because, even not having judged theses from the humanities, I know that, whatever the conclusion of a thesis is, regardless of academic discipline, it should be backed by sound research, a fair and accurate citing of previous work, and logical arguments. Wilyman’s thesis fails egregiously in all of these areas.

Finally, Martin concludes:

It is apparent that academics and universities need to do more to explain what they do and to explain the meaning and significance of academic freedom.

I’d tend to agree. We as academics in particular need to explain that “academic freedom” should not be a cover to promulgate any half-baked conspiracy theory bolstered by pseudoscience that best suits the preconceived beliefs of an academic. Nor should a thesis rooted in these things be considered acceptable by any university anywhere.

Thus endeth my part of the “organized campaign” against Brian Martin and Judy Wilyman. That’s sarcasm, Prof. Martin, in case you don’t realize it.



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1UC9DzN