Frustrations Of the Academic Life [EvolutionBlog]

After writing yesterday’s post, I found I was still muttering about Michael Ruse’s paper. So I thought to myself, why should I just rant here at the blog? How about I get down to business and write a proper journal article about it?

Mentally I started doing just that. To my surprise, I found the article practically writing itself. I quickly had an outline of what I wanted to say, started composing paragraphs, and thought about various books and articles I would want to cite. I started to get excited. Figured I could toss it off in a week, and then get back to my various other unfinished projects.

Of course, upon having decided to write a paper it behooves you to go prowling through the literature, to see what everyone else has been saying. So I spent part of this afternoon browsing through back issues of Zygon, which published the paper I discussed yesterday. Zygon is a journal about science and religion, you see.

Well, it wasn’t long before I came across the article, “Michael Ruse On Science and Faith: Seeking Mutual Understanding,” by philosopher David Wisdo, from the September 2011 issue of the journal. The abstract made it clear that Wisdo was not impressed with Ruse’s attempt at science/religion reconciliation. Wisdo was addressing Ruse’s then recent book Science and Spirituality. The Ruse paper I addressed yesterday was basically an abbreviated version of the argument from the book.

I started to get nervous. Had Wisdo anticipated me? So I read the article. And the nervousness turned to defeat. The two main points I made in yesterday’s post: that Ruse was essentially making a God of the gaps argument, and that he was putting religion in a highly subordinate position relative to science, were discussed at length in Wisdo’s paper. Discussed in almost precisely the terms I had in mind.

Crap!

Ruse replied to Wisdo in the same issue of the journal, and I’m sure you’ll be shocked to learn that for the most part I found his replies inadequate. I can think of other articles that could be written around this issue, that would use Ruse’s views as just one part of a larger argument. So I may yet write a paper about this. (Whether I could get it published is a separate issue!) But it will definitely take longer than a week, which means it has to get in line behind a bunch of other partially-formed projects.

Oh well! Maybe I should just stick to math.

from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1cqie7T

After writing yesterday’s post, I found I was still muttering about Michael Ruse’s paper. So I thought to myself, why should I just rant here at the blog? How about I get down to business and write a proper journal article about it?

Mentally I started doing just that. To my surprise, I found the article practically writing itself. I quickly had an outline of what I wanted to say, started composing paragraphs, and thought about various books and articles I would want to cite. I started to get excited. Figured I could toss it off in a week, and then get back to my various other unfinished projects.

Of course, upon having decided to write a paper it behooves you to go prowling through the literature, to see what everyone else has been saying. So I spent part of this afternoon browsing through back issues of Zygon, which published the paper I discussed yesterday. Zygon is a journal about science and religion, you see.

Well, it wasn’t long before I came across the article, “Michael Ruse On Science and Faith: Seeking Mutual Understanding,” by philosopher David Wisdo, from the September 2011 issue of the journal. The abstract made it clear that Wisdo was not impressed with Ruse’s attempt at science/religion reconciliation. Wisdo was addressing Ruse’s then recent book Science and Spirituality. The Ruse paper I addressed yesterday was basically an abbreviated version of the argument from the book.

I started to get nervous. Had Wisdo anticipated me? So I read the article. And the nervousness turned to defeat. The two main points I made in yesterday’s post: that Ruse was essentially making a God of the gaps argument, and that he was putting religion in a highly subordinate position relative to science, were discussed at length in Wisdo’s paper. Discussed in almost precisely the terms I had in mind.

Crap!

Ruse replied to Wisdo in the same issue of the journal, and I’m sure you’ll be shocked to learn that for the most part I found his replies inadequate. I can think of other articles that could be written around this issue, that would use Ruse’s views as just one part of a larger argument. So I may yet write a paper about this. (Whether I could get it published is a separate issue!) But it will definitely take longer than a week, which means it has to get in line behind a bunch of other partially-formed projects.

Oh well! Maybe I should just stick to math.

from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1cqie7T

Scientists discuss how strongly a warming Arctic is implicated in extreme weather

This is a re-post from Carbon Brief by Robert McSweeney

The possibility that a warming Arctic could be influencing extreme weather elsewhere in the world seemed to receive a boost this week.  A new paper presented further evidence linking diminishing Arctic sea ice to extreme cold winters elsewhere in the northern hemisphere.

Lead author, Prof Jennifer Francis from Rutgers University, tells us: "Our new results, together with other new studies in this field of research, are adding substantial evidence in support of the connection."

But not everyone is so sure. We asked a few scientists in the field how strong they consider the evidence linking Arctic sea ice and extreme weather to be. Here's what they told us.

Arctic amplification

The US, Canada, Japan and UK have all experienced very cold and snowy winters in recent years. In 2012, a  paper by Francis and Dr Stephen Vavrus suggested that this extreme weather was a result of rapid warming in the Arctic.

Temperatures in the Arctic are increasing around twice as fast as the global average. As Arctic sea-ice diminishes, energy from the sun that would have been reflected away by sea-ice is instead absorbed by the ocean, a phenomenon known as  Arctic amplification.

Francis and Vavrus suggested that warmer Arctic temperatures weaken the jet stream, a fast-flowing river of air high up in the atmosphere. The theory goes that a weaker jet stream becomes 'wavier' and leads to more persistent weather conditions, such as long cold spells in winter and heatwaves in summer.

The new paper by the same authors, published this week in Environmental Research Letters, offers further evidence to support the link.

Jet stream waviness

Francis and Vavrus' work triggered what has become a  lively area of research. One of the difficulties with the theory proposed is that it's very hard to measure the 'waviness' of the jet stream directly. Instead, Francis and Vavrus use a number of metrics to measure it in other ways.

One method tries to see the mechanism in action by looking for evidence of temperature differences causing wind patterns to change and the jet stream to get wavier. Another way looks at whether these wavy jet stream patterns are occurring more frequently across the northern hemisphere.

Identifying these patterns of waviness is important because they lead to 'blocking', which causes cold weather patterns to hold on for longer. In the 2013-14 US winter, the prolonged spell of very cold weather caused 91 per cent of the Great Lakes to freeze over.

Francis says we're seeing more of this persistent extreme weather as the Arctic warms up:

"Occurrence of these events has increased during recent decades when Arctic amplification has emerged as a strong signal."

Arctic amplification is greatest in autumn and winter (see graph below), which is why it mainly results in persistent cold weather events, Francis explains.

Timeseries of the Arctic amplification index for each season. A positive index indicates that the Arctic is warming faster than the mid-latitudes. Source: Francis & Vavrus (2015).

Controversial theory

Understanding the effect Arctic amplification could be having in other parts of the world is tricky because it's a relatively recent phenomenon. Francis and Vavrus define the 'Arctic amplification era' as beginning in 1995, which gives scientists less than 20 years' of data to work with.

As Dr James Screen from Exeter University tells us:

"The changes are only seen over a very short period, so it is impossible to say if they are secular trends or just natural variability."

Another issue is how you define jet stream 'waviness', as Prof Ian Simmonds from the University of Melbourne explains:

"Getting an appropriate definition is important, as conclusions as to whether waviness is increasing or decreasing seem to depend on the metrics being used."

As a result, not all scientists have been won over by the theory. Francis acknowledges that Arctic warming contributing to a wavier jet stream is the "most controversial aspect of the hypothesis we proposed in our 2012 paper."

The Arctic may not be to blame

Scientists also haven't ruled out other factors being involved in the extreme weather, as Screen tells us:

"Correlation and trends doesn't tell you cause and effect. It is still impossible to pin the blame on the Arctic, so to speak."

A paper published in October last year, for example, finds that temperature changes in the Atlantic ocean could be triggering warm conditions in the Arctic, and cold weather over Europe and Asia. Simmonds says findings such as these mean there is still doubt regarding the Arctic's influence:

"Seen in this light, the magnitude of the direct influence of a warm Arctic on mid-latitude extremes becomes more problematic."

So it seems that scientists are still some way from agreeing on what's causing these cold winters. As Screen puts it:

"Without evidence of causality or a convincing dynamical mechanism, I would say the evidence still remains suggestive but far from conclusive."

Pinpointing if and how the Arctic is implicated in extreme weather around the rest of the world is clearly of huge interest, stretching beyond just scientific circles. But teasing out the details is still a very new and active area of research, making this topic one to watch in 2015.

Francis, J.A. and Vavrus, S.J. (2015) Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming, Environmental Research Letters, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005 [This article is open-access and therefore free to download.]

from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/1GMxqZE

This is a re-post from Carbon Brief by Robert McSweeney

The possibility that a warming Arctic could be influencing extreme weather elsewhere in the world seemed to receive a boost this week.  A new paper presented further evidence linking diminishing Arctic sea ice to extreme cold winters elsewhere in the northern hemisphere.

Lead author, Prof Jennifer Francis from Rutgers University, tells us: "Our new results, together with other new studies in this field of research, are adding substantial evidence in support of the connection."

But not everyone is so sure. We asked a few scientists in the field how strong they consider the evidence linking Arctic sea ice and extreme weather to be. Here's what they told us.

Arctic amplification

The US, Canada, Japan and UK have all experienced very cold and snowy winters in recent years. In 2012, a  paper by Francis and Dr Stephen Vavrus suggested that this extreme weather was a result of rapid warming in the Arctic.

Temperatures in the Arctic are increasing around twice as fast as the global average. As Arctic sea-ice diminishes, energy from the sun that would have been reflected away by sea-ice is instead absorbed by the ocean, a phenomenon known as  Arctic amplification.

Francis and Vavrus suggested that warmer Arctic temperatures weaken the jet stream, a fast-flowing river of air high up in the atmosphere. The theory goes that a weaker jet stream becomes 'wavier' and leads to more persistent weather conditions, such as long cold spells in winter and heatwaves in summer.

The new paper by the same authors, published this week in Environmental Research Letters, offers further evidence to support the link.

Jet stream waviness

Francis and Vavrus' work triggered what has become a  lively area of research. One of the difficulties with the theory proposed is that it's very hard to measure the 'waviness' of the jet stream directly. Instead, Francis and Vavrus use a number of metrics to measure it in other ways.

One method tries to see the mechanism in action by looking for evidence of temperature differences causing wind patterns to change and the jet stream to get wavier. Another way looks at whether these wavy jet stream patterns are occurring more frequently across the northern hemisphere.

Identifying these patterns of waviness is important because they lead to 'blocking', which causes cold weather patterns to hold on for longer. In the 2013-14 US winter, the prolonged spell of very cold weather caused 91 per cent of the Great Lakes to freeze over.

Francis says we're seeing more of this persistent extreme weather as the Arctic warms up:

"Occurrence of these events has increased during recent decades when Arctic amplification has emerged as a strong signal."

Arctic amplification is greatest in autumn and winter (see graph below), which is why it mainly results in persistent cold weather events, Francis explains.

Timeseries of the Arctic amplification index for each season. A positive index indicates that the Arctic is warming faster than the mid-latitudes. Source: Francis & Vavrus (2015).

Controversial theory

Understanding the effect Arctic amplification could be having in other parts of the world is tricky because it's a relatively recent phenomenon. Francis and Vavrus define the 'Arctic amplification era' as beginning in 1995, which gives scientists less than 20 years' of data to work with.

As Dr James Screen from Exeter University tells us:

"The changes are only seen over a very short period, so it is impossible to say if they are secular trends or just natural variability."

Another issue is how you define jet stream 'waviness', as Prof Ian Simmonds from the University of Melbourne explains:

"Getting an appropriate definition is important, as conclusions as to whether waviness is increasing or decreasing seem to depend on the metrics being used."

As a result, not all scientists have been won over by the theory. Francis acknowledges that Arctic warming contributing to a wavier jet stream is the "most controversial aspect of the hypothesis we proposed in our 2012 paper."

The Arctic may not be to blame

Scientists also haven't ruled out other factors being involved in the extreme weather, as Screen tells us:

"Correlation and trends doesn't tell you cause and effect. It is still impossible to pin the blame on the Arctic, so to speak."

A paper published in October last year, for example, finds that temperature changes in the Atlantic ocean could be triggering warm conditions in the Arctic, and cold weather over Europe and Asia. Simmonds says findings such as these mean there is still doubt regarding the Arctic's influence:

"Seen in this light, the magnitude of the direct influence of a warm Arctic on mid-latitude extremes becomes more problematic."

So it seems that scientists are still some way from agreeing on what's causing these cold winters. As Screen puts it:

"Without evidence of causality or a convincing dynamical mechanism, I would say the evidence still remains suggestive but far from conclusive."

Pinpointing if and how the Arctic is implicated in extreme weather around the rest of the world is clearly of huge interest, stretching beyond just scientific circles. But teasing out the details is still a very new and active area of research, making this topic one to watch in 2015.

Francis, J.A. and Vavrus, S.J. (2015) Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming, Environmental Research Letters, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005 [This article is open-access and therefore free to download.]

from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/1GMxqZE

2015 SkS Weekly News Roundup #22B

• A heatwave that’s too hot for India to handle, with more to come
• Climate benefits of a natural gas bridge 'unlikely to be significant'
• Climate change, a factor in Texas floods, largely ignored
• Climate change may have souped up record-breaking Texas deluge
• Climate school hits home: Why warming’s impacts will be so much worse than deniers believe
• Cutting soot and methane distracts from 2C goal, says Oxford scientist
• El Niño can raise sea levels along U.S. Coast
• Hillary Clinton plans to get "aggressive" on climate. Here's what that might entail.
• Memo to Jeb Bush: denying human-caused global warming is ignorant
• Report: U.S. can make good on climate pledge — barely
• Scientists warn to expect more weather extremes
• The Carbon Brief interview: Thomas Stocker
• This is climate skeptics’ latest argument about melting polar ice — and why it’s wrong
• Warming oceans could mean typhoons are 14% stronger by 2100
• Why carbon is the best marker for the new human epoch

A heatwave that’s too hot for India to handle, with more to come

India is currently in the throes of yet another extreme heat event, with the death toll rising past 1,100. The current heatwave began on May 21, and is forecast to continue until May 30, with temperatures in many regions exceeding 45C, and reaching 47.6C and beyond.

Delhi has now endured seven consecutive days over 44C, the worst extreme heat event recorded in a decade, according to the India Meteorological Department.

Even in the mountain town of Mussoorie close to Nepal, 2,010 m above sea level, temperatures rose to 36C.

Residents of the Indian subcontinent might be acclimatised to heat and humidity, but they too have their heat tolerance limits. So what can this tell us about the future?

A heatwave that’s too hot for India to handle, with more to come by Liz Hanna, The Conversation AU, May 28, 2015

---

Climate benefits of a natural gas bridge 'unlikely to be significant'

Natural gas can only be a worthwhile bridge to a low carbon future if a series of tough conditions are met, according to a working paper from the influential New Climate Economy initiative.

The paper says the climate benefits of gas, including shale gas, could in theory be significant. It suggests a 10% increase in global gas supplies could prevent 500 gigawatts (GW) of new coal capacity being added by 2035, avoiding 1.3 billion tonnes of annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

But it warns that any theoretical benefits could easily be wiped out without controls on methane leakage, limits on total energy use and targets to ensure low-carbon energy sources are not displaced.

Climate benefits of a natural gas bridge 'unlikely to be significant' by Simon Evans, Carbon Brief, May 29, 2015

---

Climate change, a factor in Texas floods, largely ignored

Climate change is taking a toll on Texas, and the devastating floods that have killed at least 15 people and left 12 others missing across the state are some of the best evidence yet of that phenomenon, state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said in an interview Wednesday. 

"We have observed an increase of heavy rain events, at least in the South-Central United States, including Texas," said Nielsen-Gammon, who was appointed by former Gov. George W. Bush in 2000. "And it's consistent with what we would expect from climate change." 

Climate change, a factor in Texas floods, largely ignored by Neena Satija and Jim Malewitz, The Texas Tribune, May 27, 2015

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Climate change may have , souped up record-breaking Texas deluge

Large swaths of Houston were underwater yesterday after more than 10 inches of rain fell on the city during a 24-hour window.

The bulk of the rain came during intense Monday night thunderstorms, bringing America’s fourth-largest city to a standstill by yesterday morning. Major highways were flooded, schools and mass transit systems were shut down, rivers were swollen above flood stage, and the city’s Emergency Operations Center had declared a Level 1 emergency for the first time since Hurricane Ike struck in 2008. Houston Mayor Annise Parker proclaimed a state of disaster for the city yesterday afternoon.

Austin, San Antonio and several other central Texas communities also faced severe flooding over the weekend after several days of intense rain. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) described flooding along the Blanco River between Wimberley and San Marcos as a “tsunami-style” flood.

Climate change may have souped up record-breaking Texas deluge by Elizabeth Harball and Scott Detrow, ClimateWire/Scientific America, May 27, 2015

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Climate school hits home: Why warming’s impacts will be so much worse than deniers believe

Climate denial school can be a scary place. Those crazy, totally anti-science myths we’ve been discussing week after week in Denial101x keep popping up in the real world, and in recent weeks were spotted everywhere from Judith Curry’s blog to Australia’s federal government.

And it just got even scarier. Because this week, we delved into the real-world implications of human-caused warming, from just how warm scientists believe the planet’s going to get, to the ways that the environment, wildlife and human society will suffer as a result. Five weeks in, we’re getting to the heart of why it’s so important to fight climate denial: the stakes are huge, and they are already affecting us today.

Climate deniers try to minimize the impact that a lot of the climate change-related phenomena discussed this week will have, which is why the interviews with experts this week are particularly striking. These are people who have looked closely at the data, and who understand better than any of us what we’re in for. Watch their warnings closely, then try to tell yourself they’re blowing this all out of proportion.

Climate school hits home: Why warming’s impacts will be so much worse than deniers believe by Lindsay Abrams, Salon, May 27, 2015

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Cutting soot and methane distracts from 2C goal, says Oxford scientist

Politicians have agreed that global temperatures need to be limited to below 2C, and scientists say that this will mean drastically reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. But which one should be cut first?

Humans emitted  35.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide  (CO2) in 2013 - a volume that is increasing every year, putting the world on course to exceed its goal to keep temperature increase since the start of the Industrial Age below 2C.

But this is not the only pollutant that causes the planet to warm. Methane, ozone, black carbon (soot) and hydrofluorocarbons have an even more powerful warming effect, per tonne, than CO2.

Yet unlike CO2, which can last in the atmosphere for up to millennia, these stick around in the atmosphere for a matter of years or even days. As a result, they are known as short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs).

Cutting soot and methane distracts from 2C goal, says Oxford scientist by Sophie Yeo, Carbon Brief, May 28, 2015

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El Niño can raise sea levels along U.S. Coast

The El Niño event underway in the Pacific Ocean is impacting temperature and weather patterns around the world. But its effects aren’t confined to the atmosphere: A new study has found that the cyclical climate phenomenon can ratchet up sea levels off the West Coast by almost 8 inches over just a few seasons.

The findings have important implications in terms of planning for sea level rise, as ever-growing coastal communities might have to plan for even higher ocean levels in a warmer future. In California alone, some $40 billion of property and nearly 500,000 people could be affected by the sea level rise expected through mid-century, not including any additional boost from El Niño events.

“This paper is an important reminder that we cannot neglect interannual sea level variability and we need a quantitative understanding of its impact,” John Church, an oceanographer with Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) said in an email.

El Niño can raise sea levels along U.S. Coast by Andrea Thompson, Climate Central, May 28, 2015

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Hillary Clinton plans to get "aggressive" on climate. Here's what that might entail.

Hillary Clinton's advisers say she plans to take "aggressive" steps on global warming if elected president. Here's John Podesta last week:

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is "quite" involved in climate change policy as a 2016 presidential candidate and will carry on with President Obama's limits on coal-fired power plants if she is elected, her campaign chairman, John Podesta, said yesterday. ...

"I have no doubt that she will move forward with an aggressive program to move the country to a cleaner energy system and do what the United States needs to do to meet the target," he said.

So what would an "aggressive program" mean? One place to look for clues is in this big new report by the World Resources Institute. To be clear, the report isn't affiliated with the Clinton campaign at all. But it does lay out, in detail, what policies the next president could pursue to cut US emissions drastically — even without Congress. If Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders or Jeb Bush wanted to go big on climate, this would be the place to start.

Hillary Clinton plans to get "aggressive" on climate. Here's what that might entail. by Brad Plumer, Vox, May 28, 2015

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Memo to Jeb Bush: denying human-caused global warming is ignorant

In a campaign event last week, Republican presidential frontrunner Jeb Bush exhibited Stage 2 climate denial, saying (video available here),

Look, first of all, the climate is changing. I don’t think the science is clear what percentage is man-made and what percentage is natural. It’s convoluted. And for the people to say the science is decided on, this is just really arrogant, to be honest with you. It’s this intellectual arrogance that now you can’t even have a conversation about it.

Memo to Jeb Bush: denying human-caused global warming is ignorant by Dana Nuccitelli, Climate Consensus - the 97%, Guardian, May 27, 2015

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Report: U.S. can make good on climate pledge — barely

When the U.S. arrives at the international climate negotiations in Paris at the end of the year it will bring to the table its pledge to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions between 26 and 28 percent under 2005 levels over the next decade.

The World Resources Institute, or WRI, a global environmental sustainability think tank, released a reportWednesday showing how the U.S. can make good on its pledge and possibly exceed it. Doing so, however, may involve strengthening controversial emissions cuts in the works, cuts that largely are expected to be watered down and challenged in court before taking effect, possibly later this year.

To achieve its Paris emissions pledge, the Obama administration is betting that its proposed Clean Power Plan, slated to be finalized this summer, will deliver carbon dioxide emissions cuts from existing coal-fired power plants as promised. The White House also is relying on its Climate Action Plan to cut emissions and increase efficiency in other sectors of the economy.

Report: U.S. Can Make Good on Climate Pledge — Barely by Bobby Magill, Climate Central, May 28, 2015

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Scientists warn to expect more weather extremes

Torrential rains and widespread flooding in Texas have brought relief from a yearslong drought to many parts of the state. Such unpredictable and heavy rains are a big part of what climate scientists say that many Texans can expect in years to come.

The relief has come at a great cost. The death toll from storms across the state and Oklahoma has reached at least 19, by some estimates, and the property damage is so extensive that Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas has declared some 40 counties disaster areas.

It was not long ago that the state was dealing with a searing drought. In 2011, the drought was so pronounced that the governor then, Rick Perry, proclaimed three days in April “days of prayer for rain in Texas.” Parts of the state began to see the drought ease by 2012, but much of it has remained parched. 

Scientists warn to expect more weather extremes by John Schwartz, New York Times, May 27, 2015

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The Carbon Brief interview: Thomas Stocker

Thomas Stocker is a professor of climate and environmental physics at the University of Bern. He served as Co-Chair of working group one for the IPCC's fifth assessment report, Coordinating Lead Author in the third and fourth assessment reports, and is now running to succeed Dr Rajendra Pachauri as IPCC chair.

The Carbon Brief interview: Thomas Stocker by Roz Pidcock, The Carbon Brief, May 28, 2015

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This is climate skeptics’ latest argument about melting polar ice — and why it’s wrong

We’ve had two weeks of worrying news about the melting of Antarctica. The Larsen C and especially the remaining Larsen B ice shelves appear vulnerable to collapse, even as the glaciers of the Southern Antarctic Peninsula region have just been shown to be pouring large volumes of water into the ocean.

Most people, I think, would find this pretty alarming. However, as I wrote about these Antarctic news stories over the past two weeks, I became aware that those skeptical of human-caused climate change (whether its existence, or its severity) had found a new argument to minimize concerns about polar ice melt. In particular, I came across numerous citations of a much-read article at Forbes by James Taylor, titled “Updated NASA Data: Global warming not causing any polar ice retreat.”

There are many problems with this claim. In effect — and as we’ll see — Taylor is falling into a long climate “skeptic” tradition of pointing toward growing sea ice around Antarctica, and thereby suggesting that this trend undermines broader concerns about polar ice melt, or climate change in general. It doesn’t. (For another strong rebuttal to Taylor, see here from Slate’s Phil Plait.)

This is climate skeptics’ latest argument about melting polar ice — and why it’s wrong by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Wahsingto Post, May 28, 2015

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Warming oceans could mean typhoons are 14% stronger by 2100

On 7 November 2013, one of the strongest typhoons in human history hit the Philippines. With gusts up to 171 miles per hour (mph), Typhoon Haiyan tore through the many thousands of islands, killing over 6,200 people and affecting 14 million more.

Every year, these giant storms cause damage and destruction across southeast Asia. Now, a new study suggests that even under a moderate temperature rise, warming oceans could fuel more intense typhoons in the future.

Warming oceans could mean typhoons are 14% stronger by 2100 by Robert McSweeney, Carbon Brief, May 29, 2015

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This is climate skeptics’ latest argument about melting polar ice — and why it’s wrong

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Why carbon is the best marker for the new human epoch

Fire ranks among humanity's oldest and most powerful tools. Now the residue from all the oil and coal burned to power modern civilization may provide the best marker for the start of a new geologic epoch that highlights Homo sapiens’s world-changing impact, known as the Anthropocene, or "new age of humans."

"We're actually changing and continuing to change how the Earth system functions and leaving markers that could still be found in a million years time," says Earth scientist Karen Bacon of the University of Leeds in England. "That's quite incredible to think about."

Why Carbon Is the Best Marker for the New Human Epoch by David Biello. Scientific American, May 28, 2015

from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/1BxEcMD

• A heatwave that’s too hot for India to handle, with more to come
• Climate benefits of a natural gas bridge 'unlikely to be significant'
• Climate change, a factor in Texas floods, largely ignored
• Climate change may have souped up record-breaking Texas deluge
• Climate school hits home: Why warming’s impacts will be so much worse than deniers believe
• Cutting soot and methane distracts from 2C goal, says Oxford scientist
• El Niño can raise sea levels along U.S. Coast
• Hillary Clinton plans to get "aggressive" on climate. Here's what that might entail.
• Memo to Jeb Bush: denying human-caused global warming is ignorant
• Report: U.S. can make good on climate pledge — barely
• Scientists warn to expect more weather extremes
• The Carbon Brief interview: Thomas Stocker
• This is climate skeptics’ latest argument about melting polar ice — and why it’s wrong
• Warming oceans could mean typhoons are 14% stronger by 2100
• Why carbon is the best marker for the new human epoch

A heatwave that’s too hot for India to handle, with more to come

India is currently in the throes of yet another extreme heat event, with the death toll rising past 1,100. The current heatwave began on May 21, and is forecast to continue until May 30, with temperatures in many regions exceeding 45C, and reaching 47.6C and beyond.

Delhi has now endured seven consecutive days over 44C, the worst extreme heat event recorded in a decade, according to the India Meteorological Department.

Even in the mountain town of Mussoorie close to Nepal, 2,010 m above sea level, temperatures rose to 36C.

Residents of the Indian subcontinent might be acclimatised to heat and humidity, but they too have their heat tolerance limits. So what can this tell us about the future?

A heatwave that’s too hot for India to handle, with more to come by Liz Hanna, The Conversation AU, May 28, 2015

---

Climate benefits of a natural gas bridge 'unlikely to be significant'

Natural gas can only be a worthwhile bridge to a low carbon future if a series of tough conditions are met, according to a working paper from the influential New Climate Economy initiative.

The paper says the climate benefits of gas, including shale gas, could in theory be significant. It suggests a 10% increase in global gas supplies could prevent 500 gigawatts (GW) of new coal capacity being added by 2035, avoiding 1.3 billion tonnes of annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

But it warns that any theoretical benefits could easily be wiped out without controls on methane leakage, limits on total energy use and targets to ensure low-carbon energy sources are not displaced.

Climate benefits of a natural gas bridge 'unlikely to be significant' by Simon Evans, Carbon Brief, May 29, 2015

---

Climate change, a factor in Texas floods, largely ignored

Climate change is taking a toll on Texas, and the devastating floods that have killed at least 15 people and left 12 others missing across the state are some of the best evidence yet of that phenomenon, state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said in an interview Wednesday. 

"We have observed an increase of heavy rain events, at least in the South-Central United States, including Texas," said Nielsen-Gammon, who was appointed by former Gov. George W. Bush in 2000. "And it's consistent with what we would expect from climate change." 

Climate change, a factor in Texas floods, largely ignored by Neena Satija and Jim Malewitz, The Texas Tribune, May 27, 2015

---

Climate change may have , souped up record-breaking Texas deluge

Large swaths of Houston were underwater yesterday after more than 10 inches of rain fell on the city during a 24-hour window.

The bulk of the rain came during intense Monday night thunderstorms, bringing America’s fourth-largest city to a standstill by yesterday morning. Major highways were flooded, schools and mass transit systems were shut down, rivers were swollen above flood stage, and the city’s Emergency Operations Center had declared a Level 1 emergency for the first time since Hurricane Ike struck in 2008. Houston Mayor Annise Parker proclaimed a state of disaster for the city yesterday afternoon.

Austin, San Antonio and several other central Texas communities also faced severe flooding over the weekend after several days of intense rain. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) described flooding along the Blanco River between Wimberley and San Marcos as a “tsunami-style” flood.

Climate change may have souped up record-breaking Texas deluge by Elizabeth Harball and Scott Detrow, ClimateWire/Scientific America, May 27, 2015

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Climate school hits home: Why warming’s impacts will be so much worse than deniers believe

Climate denial school can be a scary place. Those crazy, totally anti-science myths we’ve been discussing week after week in Denial101x keep popping up in the real world, and in recent weeks were spotted everywhere from Judith Curry’s blog to Australia’s federal government.

And it just got even scarier. Because this week, we delved into the real-world implications of human-caused warming, from just how warm scientists believe the planet’s going to get, to the ways that the environment, wildlife and human society will suffer as a result. Five weeks in, we’re getting to the heart of why it’s so important to fight climate denial: the stakes are huge, and they are already affecting us today.

Climate deniers try to minimize the impact that a lot of the climate change-related phenomena discussed this week will have, which is why the interviews with experts this week are particularly striking. These are people who have looked closely at the data, and who understand better than any of us what we’re in for. Watch their warnings closely, then try to tell yourself they’re blowing this all out of proportion.

Climate school hits home: Why warming’s impacts will be so much worse than deniers believe by Lindsay Abrams, Salon, May 27, 2015

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Cutting soot and methane distracts from 2C goal, says Oxford scientist

Politicians have agreed that global temperatures need to be limited to below 2C, and scientists say that this will mean drastically reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. But which one should be cut first?

Humans emitted  35.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide  (CO2) in 2013 - a volume that is increasing every year, putting the world on course to exceed its goal to keep temperature increase since the start of the Industrial Age below 2C.

But this is not the only pollutant that causes the planet to warm. Methane, ozone, black carbon (soot) and hydrofluorocarbons have an even more powerful warming effect, per tonne, than CO2.

Yet unlike CO2, which can last in the atmosphere for up to millennia, these stick around in the atmosphere for a matter of years or even days. As a result, they are known as short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs).

Cutting soot and methane distracts from 2C goal, says Oxford scientist by Sophie Yeo, Carbon Brief, May 28, 2015

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El Niño can raise sea levels along U.S. Coast

The El Niño event underway in the Pacific Ocean is impacting temperature and weather patterns around the world. But its effects aren’t confined to the atmosphere: A new study has found that the cyclical climate phenomenon can ratchet up sea levels off the West Coast by almost 8 inches over just a few seasons.

The findings have important implications in terms of planning for sea level rise, as ever-growing coastal communities might have to plan for even higher ocean levels in a warmer future. In California alone, some $40 billion of property and nearly 500,000 people could be affected by the sea level rise expected through mid-century, not including any additional boost from El Niño events.

“This paper is an important reminder that we cannot neglect interannual sea level variability and we need a quantitative understanding of its impact,” John Church, an oceanographer with Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) said in an email.

El Niño can raise sea levels along U.S. Coast by Andrea Thompson, Climate Central, May 28, 2015

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Hillary Clinton plans to get "aggressive" on climate. Here's what that might entail.

Hillary Clinton's advisers say she plans to take "aggressive" steps on global warming if elected president. Here's John Podesta last week:

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is "quite" involved in climate change policy as a 2016 presidential candidate and will carry on with President Obama's limits on coal-fired power plants if she is elected, her campaign chairman, John Podesta, said yesterday. ...

"I have no doubt that she will move forward with an aggressive program to move the country to a cleaner energy system and do what the United States needs to do to meet the target," he said.

So what would an "aggressive program" mean? One place to look for clues is in this big new report by the World Resources Institute. To be clear, the report isn't affiliated with the Clinton campaign at all. But it does lay out, in detail, what policies the next president could pursue to cut US emissions drastically — even without Congress. If Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders or Jeb Bush wanted to go big on climate, this would be the place to start.

Hillary Clinton plans to get "aggressive" on climate. Here's what that might entail. by Brad Plumer, Vox, May 28, 2015

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Memo to Jeb Bush: denying human-caused global warming is ignorant

In a campaign event last week, Republican presidential frontrunner Jeb Bush exhibited Stage 2 climate denial, saying (video available here),

Look, first of all, the climate is changing. I don’t think the science is clear what percentage is man-made and what percentage is natural. It’s convoluted. And for the people to say the science is decided on, this is just really arrogant, to be honest with you. It’s this intellectual arrogance that now you can’t even have a conversation about it.

Memo to Jeb Bush: denying human-caused global warming is ignorant by Dana Nuccitelli, Climate Consensus - the 97%, Guardian, May 27, 2015

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Report: U.S. can make good on climate pledge — barely

When the U.S. arrives at the international climate negotiations in Paris at the end of the year it will bring to the table its pledge to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions between 26 and 28 percent under 2005 levels over the next decade.

The World Resources Institute, or WRI, a global environmental sustainability think tank, released a reportWednesday showing how the U.S. can make good on its pledge and possibly exceed it. Doing so, however, may involve strengthening controversial emissions cuts in the works, cuts that largely are expected to be watered down and challenged in court before taking effect, possibly later this year.

To achieve its Paris emissions pledge, the Obama administration is betting that its proposed Clean Power Plan, slated to be finalized this summer, will deliver carbon dioxide emissions cuts from existing coal-fired power plants as promised. The White House also is relying on its Climate Action Plan to cut emissions and increase efficiency in other sectors of the economy.

Report: U.S. Can Make Good on Climate Pledge — Barely by Bobby Magill, Climate Central, May 28, 2015

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Scientists warn to expect more weather extremes

Torrential rains and widespread flooding in Texas have brought relief from a yearslong drought to many parts of the state. Such unpredictable and heavy rains are a big part of what climate scientists say that many Texans can expect in years to come.

The relief has come at a great cost. The death toll from storms across the state and Oklahoma has reached at least 19, by some estimates, and the property damage is so extensive that Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas has declared some 40 counties disaster areas.

It was not long ago that the state was dealing with a searing drought. In 2011, the drought was so pronounced that the governor then, Rick Perry, proclaimed three days in April “days of prayer for rain in Texas.” Parts of the state began to see the drought ease by 2012, but much of it has remained parched. 

Scientists warn to expect more weather extremes by John Schwartz, New York Times, May 27, 2015

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The Carbon Brief interview: Thomas Stocker

Thomas Stocker is a professor of climate and environmental physics at the University of Bern. He served as Co-Chair of working group one for the IPCC's fifth assessment report, Coordinating Lead Author in the third and fourth assessment reports, and is now running to succeed Dr Rajendra Pachauri as IPCC chair.

The Carbon Brief interview: Thomas Stocker by Roz Pidcock, The Carbon Brief, May 28, 2015

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This is climate skeptics’ latest argument about melting polar ice — and why it’s wrong

We’ve had two weeks of worrying news about the melting of Antarctica. The Larsen C and especially the remaining Larsen B ice shelves appear vulnerable to collapse, even as the glaciers of the Southern Antarctic Peninsula region have just been shown to be pouring large volumes of water into the ocean.

Most people, I think, would find this pretty alarming. However, as I wrote about these Antarctic news stories over the past two weeks, I became aware that those skeptical of human-caused climate change (whether its existence, or its severity) had found a new argument to minimize concerns about polar ice melt. In particular, I came across numerous citations of a much-read article at Forbes by James Taylor, titled “Updated NASA Data: Global warming not causing any polar ice retreat.”

There are many problems with this claim. In effect — and as we’ll see — Taylor is falling into a long climate “skeptic” tradition of pointing toward growing sea ice around Antarctica, and thereby suggesting that this trend undermines broader concerns about polar ice melt, or climate change in general. It doesn’t. (For another strong rebuttal to Taylor, see here from Slate’s Phil Plait.)

This is climate skeptics’ latest argument about melting polar ice — and why it’s wrong by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Wahsingto Post, May 28, 2015

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Warming oceans could mean typhoons are 14% stronger by 2100

On 7 November 2013, one of the strongest typhoons in human history hit the Philippines. With gusts up to 171 miles per hour (mph), Typhoon Haiyan tore through the many thousands of islands, killing over 6,200 people and affecting 14 million more.

Every year, these giant storms cause damage and destruction across southeast Asia. Now, a new study suggests that even under a moderate temperature rise, warming oceans could fuel more intense typhoons in the future.

Warming oceans could mean typhoons are 14% stronger by 2100 by Robert McSweeney, Carbon Brief, May 29, 2015

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This is climate skeptics’ latest argument about melting polar ice — and why it’s wrong

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Why carbon is the best marker for the new human epoch

Fire ranks among humanity's oldest and most powerful tools. Now the residue from all the oil and coal burned to power modern civilization may provide the best marker for the start of a new geologic epoch that highlights Homo sapiens’s world-changing impact, known as the Anthropocene, or "new age of humans."

"We're actually changing and continuing to change how the Earth system functions and leaving markers that could still be found in a million years time," says Earth scientist Karen Bacon of the University of Leeds in England. "That's quite incredible to think about."

Why Carbon Is the Best Marker for the New Human Epoch by David Biello. Scientific American, May 28, 2015

from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/1BxEcMD

This Week in EPA Science

By Kacey Fitzpatrick

Finals are over, graduations have commenced, and summer vacation is right around the corner. Think you’re totally done with science forever? Ha—think again!

Make your teachers proud and keep up with the latest in environmental science by reading about EPA research here every week.

Here’s what we’re highlighting this week.

• Supporting Small Business Innovation Research
  “Seeding America’s Future Innovations” is a national effort to spread the word about the Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer programs. Together, these programs provide $2.5 billion of contracts and other awards to small, advanced technology firms to spur discoveries and facilitate the commercialization of innovations.
  Read more about “America’s Largest Seed Fund” in the blog On the Road from Cajun Country to the Heartland to Seed Small Business Innovation Research.

• Hacking for Change
  Hacking has become a buzzword with negative connotations, but people across the country can use the same computer savvy often associated with security breaches for good. On June 6^th EPA will take part in The National Day of Civic Hacking via the Visualizing Nutrients Challenge – hosted by the U.S. Geological Survey, EPA, and Blue Legacy International.
  Read more about the event in the blog Become a Civic Hacker.

• Creating a Healthier Environment for Students
  Nearly seven million U.S. children have asthma. EPA and University of Texas at Austin (UT) are researching gaps in information between environmental factors and student health. UT Austin’s project, Healthy High School PRIDE (Partnership in Research on Indoor Environments), is investigating a wide range of environmental parameters such as noise, lighting and indoor air quality in Texas high schools.
  Read more about the project in this press release.

• Science to Safeguard Drinking Water
  Toxins from harmful algal blooms are increasingly contaminating source waters, as well as the drinking water treatment facilities that source waters supply. EPA researchers are helping the treatment facilities find safe, cost effective ways to remove the toxins and keep your drinking water safe.
  Learn more about this research in the video Science safeguards drinking water from harmful algal blooms.

If you have any comments or questions about what I share or about the week’s events, please submit them below in the comments section!

About the Author: Kacey Fitzpatrick is a student contractor and writer working with the science communication team in EPA’s Office of Research and Development.

from The EPA Blog http://ift.tt/1eGIQDi

By Kacey Fitzpatrick

Finals are over, graduations have commenced, and summer vacation is right around the corner. Think you’re totally done with science forever? Ha—think again!

Make your teachers proud and keep up with the latest in environmental science by reading about EPA research here every week.

Here’s what we’re highlighting this week.

• Supporting Small Business Innovation Research
  “Seeding America’s Future Innovations” is a national effort to spread the word about the Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer programs. Together, these programs provide $2.5 billion of contracts and other awards to small, advanced technology firms to spur discoveries and facilitate the commercialization of innovations.
  Read more about “America’s Largest Seed Fund” in the blog On the Road from Cajun Country to the Heartland to Seed Small Business Innovation Research.

• Hacking for Change
  Hacking has become a buzzword with negative connotations, but people across the country can use the same computer savvy often associated with security breaches for good. On June 6^th EPA will take part in The National Day of Civic Hacking via the Visualizing Nutrients Challenge – hosted by the U.S. Geological Survey, EPA, and Blue Legacy International.
  Read more about the event in the blog Become a Civic Hacker.

• Creating a Healthier Environment for Students
  Nearly seven million U.S. children have asthma. EPA and University of Texas at Austin (UT) are researching gaps in information between environmental factors and student health. UT Austin’s project, Healthy High School PRIDE (Partnership in Research on Indoor Environments), is investigating a wide range of environmental parameters such as noise, lighting and indoor air quality in Texas high schools.
  Read more about the project in this press release.

• Science to Safeguard Drinking Water
  Toxins from harmful algal blooms are increasingly contaminating source waters, as well as the drinking water treatment facilities that source waters supply. EPA researchers are helping the treatment facilities find safe, cost effective ways to remove the toxins and keep your drinking water safe.
  Learn more about this research in the video Science safeguards drinking water from harmful algal blooms.

If you have any comments or questions about what I share or about the week’s events, please submit them below in the comments section!

About the Author: Kacey Fitzpatrick is a student contractor and writer working with the science communication team in EPA’s Office of Research and Development.

from The EPA Blog http://ift.tt/1eGIQDi

Topping Off Asthma Awareness Month with Health Advice for Those You Care About

By Becky Weber

Imagine that you’re spending a quiet day at the beach. You get warm and the crystal clear, blue water looks so inviting, you decide to go for a swim. You venture out into the calm water, but before you know it, waves start rolling over your head. You push up from the sandy ocean bottom and take a big gulp of air before another wave knocks you back over. You finally make it to shore and now you’re exhausted, but your heart is racing like you just ran the Boston Marathon and you can’t make it slow down no matter how many deep breaths you take…

Becky Weber

This is eerily similar to an asthma attack that adults can experience. An attack can come out of the blue and before it’s over, they might spend time in an emergency room with doctors getting the attack and the resulting rapid pulse under control with asthma medication.

May is Asthma Awareness Month, and I’d like to cap off the month by reminding everyone that adults have asthma, too. According to the Centers for Disease Control, there are just under one million adults in the Heartland living with asthma, or seven percent of the population. These asthma sufferers are moms, dads, brothers, sisters, sons, daughters, employees, etc. When they have an attack, it takes time away from their families, jobs, and activities. In EPA Region 7’s Air Program, we work closely with our state and local partners to educate the public about asthma and the common triggers for asthma attacks.

The most common triggers for asthma in both adults and children are:

• Secondhand smoke
• Dust mites
• Molds
• Cockroaches and pests
• Pets
• Nitrogen dioxide
• Chemical irritants
• Outdoor air pollution
• Wood smoke

Having healthy indoor and outdoor air is important for every citizen, but it can mean life or death for people with asthma. Our Air Program is doing its part to protect air quality in the Heartland via the regional indoor and outdoor air programs, closely working with our Public Affairs and Environmental Justice experts on education campaigns and with our state and local partners. We hope our efforts result in fewer missed school and work days, less missed time with families, fewer hospital visits – and most of all, a better quality of life for our citizens living with asthma every day.

You may be thinking to yourself, “Is there anything I can do?” Yes, there are several things you can do to help those with asthma around you. Carpool more or take public transportation to reduce air pollution. Use green products when cleaning your home or office space. Buy Energy Star or energy-efficient products. And educate yourself on asthma trigger prevention. We can all do our part to help prevent asthma attacks!

For more information on asthma, triggers, and prevention, please visit EPA’s Asthma page.

About the Author: Becky Weber serves as the Director of EPA Region 7’s Air and Waste Management Division, and has worked over 20 years at EPA managing a variety of programs. She has a Bachelor of Science in meteorology from Texas A&M University. Becky enjoys cooking, reading, walking, and spending time with her family and friends.

from The EPA Blog http://ift.tt/1eGIOv3

By Becky Weber

Imagine that you’re spending a quiet day at the beach. You get warm and the crystal clear, blue water looks so inviting, you decide to go for a swim. You venture out into the calm water, but before you know it, waves start rolling over your head. You push up from the sandy ocean bottom and take a big gulp of air before another wave knocks you back over. You finally make it to shore and now you’re exhausted, but your heart is racing like you just ran the Boston Marathon and you can’t make it slow down no matter how many deep breaths you take…

Becky Weber

This is eerily similar to an asthma attack that adults can experience. An attack can come out of the blue and before it’s over, they might spend time in an emergency room with doctors getting the attack and the resulting rapid pulse under control with asthma medication.

May is Asthma Awareness Month, and I’d like to cap off the month by reminding everyone that adults have asthma, too. According to the Centers for Disease Control, there are just under one million adults in the Heartland living with asthma, or seven percent of the population. These asthma sufferers are moms, dads, brothers, sisters, sons, daughters, employees, etc. When they have an attack, it takes time away from their families, jobs, and activities. In EPA Region 7’s Air Program, we work closely with our state and local partners to educate the public about asthma and the common triggers for asthma attacks.

The most common triggers for asthma in both adults and children are:

• Secondhand smoke
• Dust mites
• Molds
• Cockroaches and pests
• Pets
• Nitrogen dioxide
• Chemical irritants
• Outdoor air pollution
• Wood smoke

Having healthy indoor and outdoor air is important for every citizen, but it can mean life or death for people with asthma. Our Air Program is doing its part to protect air quality in the Heartland via the regional indoor and outdoor air programs, closely working with our Public Affairs and Environmental Justice experts on education campaigns and with our state and local partners. We hope our efforts result in fewer missed school and work days, less missed time with families, fewer hospital visits – and most of all, a better quality of life for our citizens living with asthma every day.

You may be thinking to yourself, “Is there anything I can do?” Yes, there are several things you can do to help those with asthma around you. Carpool more or take public transportation to reduce air pollution. Use green products when cleaning your home or office space. Buy Energy Star or energy-efficient products. And educate yourself on asthma trigger prevention. We can all do our part to help prevent asthma attacks!

For more information on asthma, triggers, and prevention, please visit EPA’s Asthma page.

About the Author: Becky Weber serves as the Director of EPA Region 7’s Air and Waste Management Division, and has worked over 20 years at EPA managing a variety of programs. She has a Bachelor of Science in meteorology from Texas A&M University. Becky enjoys cooking, reading, walking, and spending time with her family and friends.

from The EPA Blog http://ift.tt/1eGIOv3

Become a Civic Hacker

By Dustin Renwick

Hacking has become a buzzword with negative connotations, but people across the country can use the same computer savvy often associated with security breaches for good. Civic hacking allows people to connect with every level of government, improve their communities, and test their talents for coding and problem solving.

This kind of hacking brings together people with different interests and skills who can tap open data sets and build technology-based solutions.

The National Day of Civic Hacking includes anyone interested in collaboration and community – from die-hard hackers to people with no technology background. This year’s event takes place on June 6.

EPA will take part via the Visualizing Nutrients Challenge – hosted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), EPA, and Blue Legacy International. But that’s just one of a collection of opportunities from more than 30 federal agencies who have shared social and civic problems that will benefit from public participation.

The civic hacking day brings together virtual and real-world communities. Last year’s event boasted meet-ups in more than 100 cities in 40 U.S. states and 13 countries across the world.

Look for an event in a city near you, or check out the challenge listings. Some of the themes for this year are climate and health. Nutrient pollution – excess nitrogen and phosphorus in our waters – remains a costly, complex environmental problem that affects communities and their local watersheds.

USGS, EPA, and Blue Legacy released the Visualizing Nutrients Challenge to seek compelling, innovative visual representations of open government data sources. These visualizations should inform individuals and communities on nutrient pollution and inspire them to take actions that might prevent excess algal production and hypoxia in local watersheds.

First place will receive $10,000, and the Blue Legacy Award will receive $5,000. Register for the competition and submit your entry by June 8.

Be sure to see if any other challenges fit your skillset for the national event on June 6, and join people across the world in hacking for change.

About the Author: Dustin Renwick works in conjunction with the Innovation Team in EPA’s Office of Research and Development.

from The EPA Blog http://ift.tt/1cpDyKH

By Dustin Renwick

Hacking has become a buzzword with negative connotations, but people across the country can use the same computer savvy often associated with security breaches for good. Civic hacking allows people to connect with every level of government, improve their communities, and test their talents for coding and problem solving.

This kind of hacking brings together people with different interests and skills who can tap open data sets and build technology-based solutions.

The National Day of Civic Hacking includes anyone interested in collaboration and community – from die-hard hackers to people with no technology background. This year’s event takes place on June 6.

EPA will take part via the Visualizing Nutrients Challenge – hosted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), EPA, and Blue Legacy International. But that’s just one of a collection of opportunities from more than 30 federal agencies who have shared social and civic problems that will benefit from public participation.

The civic hacking day brings together virtual and real-world communities. Last year’s event boasted meet-ups in more than 100 cities in 40 U.S. states and 13 countries across the world.

Look for an event in a city near you, or check out the challenge listings. Some of the themes for this year are climate and health. Nutrient pollution – excess nitrogen and phosphorus in our waters – remains a costly, complex environmental problem that affects communities and their local watersheds.

USGS, EPA, and Blue Legacy released the Visualizing Nutrients Challenge to seek compelling, innovative visual representations of open government data sources. These visualizations should inform individuals and communities on nutrient pollution and inspire them to take actions that might prevent excess algal production and hypoxia in local watersheds.

First place will receive $10,000, and the Blue Legacy Award will receive $5,000. Register for the competition and submit your entry by June 8.

Be sure to see if any other challenges fit your skillset for the national event on June 6, and join people across the world in hacking for change.

About the Author: Dustin Renwick works in conjunction with the Innovation Team in EPA’s Office of Research and Development.

from The EPA Blog http://ift.tt/1cpDyKH

Driving responsible growth in biofuels

The renewable fuels standards (RFS) program, established by Congress in 2007, aims to increase the volumes of renewable biofuels that are used in our transportation system, helping the United States move away from fossil fuels to less carbon-intensive fuels. The program seeks to reduce the pollution that contributes to climate change and improve energy security. When Congress passed the RFS, it set annual targets for biofuel use that increase every year through 2022. Congress also gave EPA the authority to adjust those target volumes downward in certain situations.

Today we proposed renewable fuel volume standards that establish a path for ambitious yet responsible growth in biofuels. These standards would provide the certainty the marketplace needs to further develop low-carbon fuels over the coming years. The proposed volumes reflect two realities:

• One – that Congressional intent is clear that renewable fuel production and use should grow over time. We have already seen success – renewable fuels are being produced and used in increasing volumes. This is true for both ethanol and biodiesel, and recently we have seen important developments in cellulosic biofuels (produced from sources like corn stover), which result in the lowest greenhouse gas emissions.
• And two – that there are real limits to the actual amounts of biofuels that can be supplied to consumers at this time. These limits include lower than expected demand for gasoline and constraints in supplying ethanol at greater than 10 percent of gasoline.

You may often hear of the “E10 blendwall.” This term refers to the amount of ethanol that could be used if all gasoline contains 10 percent ethanol and there are no higher-level ethanol blends, such as E15 or E85. Today, nearly every gallon of gasoline sold in the United States contains 10 percent ethanol. Providing more ethanol in the system will require blends of fuel with more than 10 percent ethanol, such as E85 (fuel with up to 85 percent ethanol) or E15. While these options are growing, they are not yet available widely. So this proposal will push the renewable fuel market beyond the E10 blendwall, as Congress intended, but in a responsible manner. In developing the proposed standards, EPA considered a range of scenarios that would enable the market to achieve the proposed standards, including ones where use of E85 increases substantially.

Because of the limitations that exist today, we are using the authority Congress gave the agency to adjust the volumes below the annual targets set in the original 2007 legislation. These proposed volumes are achievable in the timeframes under consideration. At the same time, the volumes steadily increase every year, reflecting Congress’s clear intent to drive up the nation’s use of renewable fuel.

Indeed, the proposed 2016 numbers will incentivize real growth in the market.

• The proposed 2016 standard for cellulosic biofuel – those fuels with the lowest GHG emissions profile – is more than 170 million gallons higher than the actual 2014 volumes. That’s six times higher than actual 2014 volumes.
• The proposed 2016 standard for total renewable fuel is nearly 1.5 billion gallons more, or about 9 percent higher, than the actual 2014 volumes.
• The proposed 2016 standard for advanced biofuel is more than 700 million gallons27 percent – higher than the actual 2014 volumes.
• Biodiesel standards grow steadily over the next several years, increasing every year to reach 1.9 billion gallons by 2017. That’s 17 percent higher than the actual 2014 volumes.

We are committed to increasing the use of renewable fuels through the RFS. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of Energy are building programs that support biofuels, biofuel infrastructure and the many U.S. companies leading the way in this industry. We know that opportunities lie ahead for the biofuels sector as we work through the challenges we face in transforming the nation’s fuel supply. These proposals reflect the Administration’s confidence that renewable fuels can continue to steadily advance and grow.

from The EPA Blog http://ift.tt/1eGIQmN

The renewable fuels standards (RFS) program, established by Congress in 2007, aims to increase the volumes of renewable biofuels that are used in our transportation system, helping the United States move away from fossil fuels to less carbon-intensive fuels. The program seeks to reduce the pollution that contributes to climate change and improve energy security. When Congress passed the RFS, it set annual targets for biofuel use that increase every year through 2022. Congress also gave EPA the authority to adjust those target volumes downward in certain situations.

Today we proposed renewable fuel volume standards that establish a path for ambitious yet responsible growth in biofuels. These standards would provide the certainty the marketplace needs to further develop low-carbon fuels over the coming years. The proposed volumes reflect two realities:

• One – that Congressional intent is clear that renewable fuel production and use should grow over time. We have already seen success – renewable fuels are being produced and used in increasing volumes. This is true for both ethanol and biodiesel, and recently we have seen important developments in cellulosic biofuels (produced from sources like corn stover), which result in the lowest greenhouse gas emissions.
• And two – that there are real limits to the actual amounts of biofuels that can be supplied to consumers at this time. These limits include lower than expected demand for gasoline and constraints in supplying ethanol at greater than 10 percent of gasoline.

You may often hear of the “E10 blendwall.” This term refers to the amount of ethanol that could be used if all gasoline contains 10 percent ethanol and there are no higher-level ethanol blends, such as E15 or E85. Today, nearly every gallon of gasoline sold in the United States contains 10 percent ethanol. Providing more ethanol in the system will require blends of fuel with more than 10 percent ethanol, such as E85 (fuel with up to 85 percent ethanol) or E15. While these options are growing, they are not yet available widely. So this proposal will push the renewable fuel market beyond the E10 blendwall, as Congress intended, but in a responsible manner. In developing the proposed standards, EPA considered a range of scenarios that would enable the market to achieve the proposed standards, including ones where use of E85 increases substantially.

Because of the limitations that exist today, we are using the authority Congress gave the agency to adjust the volumes below the annual targets set in the original 2007 legislation. These proposed volumes are achievable in the timeframes under consideration. At the same time, the volumes steadily increase every year, reflecting Congress’s clear intent to drive up the nation’s use of renewable fuel.

Indeed, the proposed 2016 numbers will incentivize real growth in the market.

• The proposed 2016 standard for cellulosic biofuel – those fuels with the lowest GHG emissions profile – is more than 170 million gallons higher than the actual 2014 volumes. That’s six times higher than actual 2014 volumes.
• The proposed 2016 standard for total renewable fuel is nearly 1.5 billion gallons more, or about 9 percent higher, than the actual 2014 volumes.
• The proposed 2016 standard for advanced biofuel is more than 700 million gallons27 percent – higher than the actual 2014 volumes.
• Biodiesel standards grow steadily over the next several years, increasing every year to reach 1.9 billion gallons by 2017. That’s 17 percent higher than the actual 2014 volumes.

We are committed to increasing the use of renewable fuels through the RFS. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of Energy are building programs that support biofuels, biofuel infrastructure and the many U.S. companies leading the way in this industry. We know that opportunities lie ahead for the biofuels sector as we work through the challenges we face in transforming the nation’s fuel supply. These proposals reflect the Administration’s confidence that renewable fuels can continue to steadily advance and grow.

from The EPA Blog http://ift.tt/1eGIQmN