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New Year’s resolutions 2018: Can you nudge your way to a new you?

Healthy eating family

If you’ve made some healthy resolutions for 2018, understanding the science behind why we make certain decisions can help you keep on track. We spoke to UCL’s Dr Philippa Lally, who studies how we form habits, to find out how a behaviour science – called nudge theory – can help make your 2018 resolutions stick.

What is nudge theory?

Nudge theory is about introducing subtle changes, or ‘nudges’, into our lives to encourage certain choices. It’s about making the preferred choice the easiest choice, rather than forcing or forbidding other options. And crucially, it’s about making choices that people are happy with – nudging isn’t about tricking people.

Nudges have been used for years to advertise products, and governments also use nudging in public health policy, to help encourage people to do a certain thing. For example, tweaking text message reminders has been shown to help reduce the number of missed NHS appointments. By adding a phone number for cancelling the appointment, plus the cost to the NHS if you don’t go, missed appointments fell by a quarter in a pilot study.

So these small changes work. And research is showing they can help turn choices into habits.

Lally describes a habit as “an association between a situation and an action”.

Each time you do that thing in the same situation “the association becomes stronger”, she says.

“And changing your environment is much easier than trying to control yourself.”

A recent study has also shown how this could work for healthy diets. It looked at data from other research on the effectiveness of nudges in changing adults’ diet. Nudges, such as providing calorie information or changing the range of portion sizes, led to an average 15.3% increase in healthier dietary or nutritional choices.

Make the healthy choice the easy choice

The easiest choice is often the most convenient one. So make healthy choices more convenient. Studies have shown that the order of food on offer at a buffet significantly affects meal choices. People pick the foods that come first or that are easiest to take. So while you may think you’ll go out of your way to have bacon and eggs rather than granola – research suggests otherwise.

The opposite is also true, making food harder to get can help reduce the amount you eat. One study found that by simply changing the serving utensil from a spoon to tongs reduced the amount of food taken by 8-16%.

So putting the biscuits or wine at the back of the cupboard could help you to cut down.

“Habits are all about cues,” says Lally. “The best way not to perform a habit is not to encounter your cue. If you can control the context to remove the cues, that is the easiest thing to do. By far the best thing would be to throw the biscuits out, to remove the cue, but even moving them might help.”

Plan for success

“If you want to create a new habit, you need to think carefully about how you’re going to do it,” says Lally. “Making a plan as to how you are going to achieve your more general goal is a good way to encourage that behaviour. Then after enough time, it should become a habit.”

Many studies support the idea of short term goals, particularly for losing weight. These can be used alone, or in combination with more long-term goals.

“If you make a plan, for example: ‘every day after my lunch I will have a piece of fruit’, that is called an implementation intention. That begins to form the association even by just saying it.”

It’s also a behavioural phenomenon that the closer we see ourselves to a goal, the more motivated we are to complete it. By charting success through small individual tasks to reach a bigger goal, we may be more likely to stick to a resolution. There’s lots of evidence to suggest that monitoring progress can help with long term success.

“Monitoring is a really good thing, because it keeps the habit fresh in people’s minds. You could tick it on a sheet on your fridge every day, or set a reminder on your phone,” suggests Lally.

Strength in numbers

Creating a group resolution helps to tackle two common behavioural challenges. First, people often prefer to avoid losing rather than to pursue winning. If you fear that you’re missing out on something, you will be more motivated to achieve it. “People often make decisions based on what other people are doing,” says Lally. So FoMO could be a powerful ally.

Second, people generally place more emphasis on immediate rewards or punishment. This might explain why many people don’t exercise or eat healthily enough, because the immediate pleasure of the unhealthy option can outweigh the enjoyment of a healthy lifestyle in the future. By creating an immediate benefit, such as making exercise a way to spend time with friends, it becomes a positive thing to do, not just for any future gains. And several studies have shown that social support and participating as groups increases how active people are.

“Having social support in any change is always good,” says Lally. “If you go to a pub, and everybody else is drinking around you, that is hard, whereas if you are all not drinking, then that is a lot easier.”

Remember it’s not all-or-nothing

“People feel like you’ve got to stop eating everything that tastes nice and start running marathons,” says Lally. “But you can make a big difference to your health by consistently sticking to small changes.”

Habits don’t happen overnight. A habit is something that is done automatically because it has been done frequently in the past. So while nudges might help encourage healthy behaviour, they won’t become habits immediately.

It’s the age-old refrain: practice make perfect. The more often you do something, the easier it is to do automatically. And once something becomes a habit, you don’t have to think about doing it anymore.

So while a resolution might not be habit by the end of January, stick with it. And whatever your New Year’s resolution is, there are more tips and information on our website to help you along the way to making that change.

“These changes can feel like small decisions, but small habits can actually make a big difference to your life,” says Lally.

And with 4 in 10 cancers being preventable, a nudge might be all you need.

Sophia Lowes is a health information officer at Cancer Research UK



from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://ift.tt/2CnljXJ
Healthy eating family

If you’ve made some healthy resolutions for 2018, understanding the science behind why we make certain decisions can help you keep on track. We spoke to UCL’s Dr Philippa Lally, who studies how we form habits, to find out how a behaviour science – called nudge theory – can help make your 2018 resolutions stick.

What is nudge theory?

Nudge theory is about introducing subtle changes, or ‘nudges’, into our lives to encourage certain choices. It’s about making the preferred choice the easiest choice, rather than forcing or forbidding other options. And crucially, it’s about making choices that people are happy with – nudging isn’t about tricking people.

Nudges have been used for years to advertise products, and governments also use nudging in public health policy, to help encourage people to do a certain thing. For example, tweaking text message reminders has been shown to help reduce the number of missed NHS appointments. By adding a phone number for cancelling the appointment, plus the cost to the NHS if you don’t go, missed appointments fell by a quarter in a pilot study.

So these small changes work. And research is showing they can help turn choices into habits.

Lally describes a habit as “an association between a situation and an action”.

Each time you do that thing in the same situation “the association becomes stronger”, she says.

“And changing your environment is much easier than trying to control yourself.”

A recent study has also shown how this could work for healthy diets. It looked at data from other research on the effectiveness of nudges in changing adults’ diet. Nudges, such as providing calorie information or changing the range of portion sizes, led to an average 15.3% increase in healthier dietary or nutritional choices.

Make the healthy choice the easy choice

The easiest choice is often the most convenient one. So make healthy choices more convenient. Studies have shown that the order of food on offer at a buffet significantly affects meal choices. People pick the foods that come first or that are easiest to take. So while you may think you’ll go out of your way to have bacon and eggs rather than granola – research suggests otherwise.

The opposite is also true, making food harder to get can help reduce the amount you eat. One study found that by simply changing the serving utensil from a spoon to tongs reduced the amount of food taken by 8-16%.

So putting the biscuits or wine at the back of the cupboard could help you to cut down.

“Habits are all about cues,” says Lally. “The best way not to perform a habit is not to encounter your cue. If you can control the context to remove the cues, that is the easiest thing to do. By far the best thing would be to throw the biscuits out, to remove the cue, but even moving them might help.”

Plan for success

“If you want to create a new habit, you need to think carefully about how you’re going to do it,” says Lally. “Making a plan as to how you are going to achieve your more general goal is a good way to encourage that behaviour. Then after enough time, it should become a habit.”

Many studies support the idea of short term goals, particularly for losing weight. These can be used alone, or in combination with more long-term goals.

“If you make a plan, for example: ‘every day after my lunch I will have a piece of fruit’, that is called an implementation intention. That begins to form the association even by just saying it.”

It’s also a behavioural phenomenon that the closer we see ourselves to a goal, the more motivated we are to complete it. By charting success through small individual tasks to reach a bigger goal, we may be more likely to stick to a resolution. There’s lots of evidence to suggest that monitoring progress can help with long term success.

“Monitoring is a really good thing, because it keeps the habit fresh in people’s minds. You could tick it on a sheet on your fridge every day, or set a reminder on your phone,” suggests Lally.

Strength in numbers

Creating a group resolution helps to tackle two common behavioural challenges. First, people often prefer to avoid losing rather than to pursue winning. If you fear that you’re missing out on something, you will be more motivated to achieve it. “People often make decisions based on what other people are doing,” says Lally. So FoMO could be a powerful ally.

Second, people generally place more emphasis on immediate rewards or punishment. This might explain why many people don’t exercise or eat healthily enough, because the immediate pleasure of the unhealthy option can outweigh the enjoyment of a healthy lifestyle in the future. By creating an immediate benefit, such as making exercise a way to spend time with friends, it becomes a positive thing to do, not just for any future gains. And several studies have shown that social support and participating as groups increases how active people are.

“Having social support in any change is always good,” says Lally. “If you go to a pub, and everybody else is drinking around you, that is hard, whereas if you are all not drinking, then that is a lot easier.”

Remember it’s not all-or-nothing

“People feel like you’ve got to stop eating everything that tastes nice and start running marathons,” says Lally. “But you can make a big difference to your health by consistently sticking to small changes.”

Habits don’t happen overnight. A habit is something that is done automatically because it has been done frequently in the past. So while nudges might help encourage healthy behaviour, they won’t become habits immediately.

It’s the age-old refrain: practice make perfect. The more often you do something, the easier it is to do automatically. And once something becomes a habit, you don’t have to think about doing it anymore.

So while a resolution might not be habit by the end of January, stick with it. And whatever your New Year’s resolution is, there are more tips and information on our website to help you along the way to making that change.

“These changes can feel like small decisions, but small habits can actually make a big difference to your life,” says Lally.

And with 4 in 10 cancers being preventable, a nudge might be all you need.

Sophia Lowes is a health information officer at Cancer Research UK



from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://ift.tt/2CnljXJ

Next New Horizons flyby will happen a year from today

View larger. | Artist’s concept of New Horizons’ trajectory, past Pluto, toward 2014 MU69.

One year from today – on January 1, 2019 – the famous Pluto spacecraft called New Horizons will encounter its next target, some billion miles (1.6 billion km) past Pluto, a Kuiper Belt object designated 2014 MU69. New Horizons’ science team has been abuzz since last summer, when the team learned via an occultation of a star by MU69 that this remote and tiny object might be either peanut-shaped or even two objects orbiting one another. In other words, perhaps MU69 is like a binary asteroid (aka an asteroid with a moon).

In December, New Horizons science team member Marc Buie of the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado offered an update on scientists’ thoughts about MU69 at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in New Orleans. He said in a statement:

We really won’t know what MU69 looks like until we fly past it, or even gain a full understanding of it until after the encounter. But even from afar, the more we examine it, the more interesting and amazing this little world becomes.

In particular, data collected during a July 10, 2017 occultation of a star by MU69 has led scientists to suspect MU69 might be binary. Scientists were aboard NASA’s airborne Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) – flying over the Pacific Ocean – when they saw what appeared to be a very short drop-out in the star’s light prior to the expected occultation. Buie said further analysis of that data, including syncing it with MU69 orbit calculations provided by the European Space Agency’s Gaia mission, opens the possibility that the “blip” SOFIA detected could be another object orbiting around MU69. Buie commented:

A binary with a smaller moon might also help explain the shifts we see in the position of MU69 during these various occultations. It’s all very suggestive, but another step in our work to get a clear picture of MU69 before New Horizons flies by … a year from now.

Read more about what the occultation data showed, via New Horizons

In 2017, the small Kuiper Belt object 2014 MU69 occulted (briefly hid) 3 faint stars as seen from Earth. Here are the pre-predicted tracks, each only about 30 miles (50 km) wide, from which those disappearances were visible. New Horizons scientists made every effort to observe these occultations, since such events can reveal much about the occulting object. Image via skyandtelescope.com.

View larger. | In this image, the colored lines mark the path of the star occulted by 2014 MU69, as seen from different telescopes on different days. The blank spaces on those lines indicate the few seconds when MU69 blocked the light from the star. Graphic via NASA/ Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/ Southwest Research Institute/ James Tuttle Keane/ New Horizons.

By the way, the New Horizons team was looking this past fall for your ideas on an informal name for 2014 MU69. The voting is closed now, but the announcement of the winner is expected soon; it wouldn’t surprise me if it came today. Meanwhile, you can see the 37 names being considered by the team, and see the results of the voting.

At present, Mjölnir – the name of Thor’s hammer in Norse mythology – is leading the pack by a substantial margin. Pronunciation here.

Read more about the voting on a nickname for 2014 MU69

Thus the Kuiper Belt object MU69, discovered as recently as 2014, is poised to become much better known. This object is more than 4 billion miles (6.5 billion km) from Earth. It appears to be no more than 20 miles (30 km) long, or, if a binary, each about 9-12 miles (15-20 km) in diameter.

We live in a wondrous age!

Artist’s concept of NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft streaking past 2014 MU69, which might be 2 objects orbiting each other. Image via Carlos Hernandez/ NASA.

Bottom line: The New Horizons spacecraft will sweep closest to Kuiper Belt object 2014 MU69 one year from today, on January 1, 2019.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2lzYHsp

View larger. | Artist’s concept of New Horizons’ trajectory, past Pluto, toward 2014 MU69.

One year from today – on January 1, 2019 – the famous Pluto spacecraft called New Horizons will encounter its next target, some billion miles (1.6 billion km) past Pluto, a Kuiper Belt object designated 2014 MU69. New Horizons’ science team has been abuzz since last summer, when the team learned via an occultation of a star by MU69 that this remote and tiny object might be either peanut-shaped or even two objects orbiting one another. In other words, perhaps MU69 is like a binary asteroid (aka an asteroid with a moon).

In December, New Horizons science team member Marc Buie of the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado offered an update on scientists’ thoughts about MU69 at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in New Orleans. He said in a statement:

We really won’t know what MU69 looks like until we fly past it, or even gain a full understanding of it until after the encounter. But even from afar, the more we examine it, the more interesting and amazing this little world becomes.

In particular, data collected during a July 10, 2017 occultation of a star by MU69 has led scientists to suspect MU69 might be binary. Scientists were aboard NASA’s airborne Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) – flying over the Pacific Ocean – when they saw what appeared to be a very short drop-out in the star’s light prior to the expected occultation. Buie said further analysis of that data, including syncing it with MU69 orbit calculations provided by the European Space Agency’s Gaia mission, opens the possibility that the “blip” SOFIA detected could be another object orbiting around MU69. Buie commented:

A binary with a smaller moon might also help explain the shifts we see in the position of MU69 during these various occultations. It’s all very suggestive, but another step in our work to get a clear picture of MU69 before New Horizons flies by … a year from now.

Read more about what the occultation data showed, via New Horizons

In 2017, the small Kuiper Belt object 2014 MU69 occulted (briefly hid) 3 faint stars as seen from Earth. Here are the pre-predicted tracks, each only about 30 miles (50 km) wide, from which those disappearances were visible. New Horizons scientists made every effort to observe these occultations, since such events can reveal much about the occulting object. Image via skyandtelescope.com.

View larger. | In this image, the colored lines mark the path of the star occulted by 2014 MU69, as seen from different telescopes on different days. The blank spaces on those lines indicate the few seconds when MU69 blocked the light from the star. Graphic via NASA/ Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/ Southwest Research Institute/ James Tuttle Keane/ New Horizons.

By the way, the New Horizons team was looking this past fall for your ideas on an informal name for 2014 MU69. The voting is closed now, but the announcement of the winner is expected soon; it wouldn’t surprise me if it came today. Meanwhile, you can see the 37 names being considered by the team, and see the results of the voting.

At present, Mjölnir – the name of Thor’s hammer in Norse mythology – is leading the pack by a substantial margin. Pronunciation here.

Read more about the voting on a nickname for 2014 MU69

Thus the Kuiper Belt object MU69, discovered as recently as 2014, is poised to become much better known. This object is more than 4 billion miles (6.5 billion km) from Earth. It appears to be no more than 20 miles (30 km) long, or, if a binary, each about 9-12 miles (15-20 km) in diameter.

We live in a wondrous age!

Artist’s concept of NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft streaking past 2014 MU69, which might be 2 objects orbiting each other. Image via Carlos Hernandez/ NASA.

Bottom line: The New Horizons spacecraft will sweep closest to Kuiper Belt object 2014 MU69 one year from today, on January 1, 2019.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2lzYHsp

Year’s largest supermoon on January 1-2

Top image: December 3, 2017 supermoon via Henrique Feliciano Silva in Lisbon, Portugal.

See more images of December’s supermoon.

The first of two January 2018 full moons falls on the evening of January 1, 2018, for most of the Western Hemisphere (January 2 for the Eastern Hemisphere). This full moon comes only 4.5 hours after the moon reaches lunar perigee – the moon’s closest point to Earth in its monthly orbit. Thus this full moon presents the closest – and thereby the largest and brightest – supermoon of 2018.

Of the 13 full moons and 14 lunar perigees occurring in 2018, this is the closest alignment of full moon and lunar perigee for the year.

This close coincidence of full moon and perigee in early January 2018 not only gives us the closest full moon of 2018 but also the closest lunar perigee of 2018. See below to note the nearness in time of this perigee and full moon.

Lunar perigee distance (2018 Jan 1 at 21:54 UTC): 356,565 km
Full moon distance (2018 Jan 2 at 2:24 UTC): 356,846 km

Join the Virtual Telescope Project in Rome for an online viewing of the January 1, 2018 supermoon.

Here’s a comparison between the December 3 full moon at perigree (closest to Earth for the month) and the year’s farthest full moon in June at apogee (farthest from Earth for the month) by Muzamir Mazlan at Telok Kemang Observatory, Port Dickson, Malaysia. See more photos of December’s supermoon.

To the eye alone, a supermoon probably doesn’t look any larger than an ordinary full moon (although it might look brighter). But Earth’s oceans feel the gravity of the extra-close supermoon, which causes particularly high and low tides. James Younger wrote on December 3, 2017: “I held a low-tide supermoon photography event at Island View Beach, Vancouver Island, B.C..” See more photos of December’s supermoon.

Although the moon turns precisely full at the same instant worldwide (January 2 at 2:24 Universal Time), the time – and possibly the date – of the full moon varies according to one’s time zone. At North American and US time zones, the full moon actually comes to pass on the evening of January 1 at these times:

22:24 (10:24 p.m.) Atlantic Standard Time (AST)
21:24 (9:24 p.m.) Eastern Standard Time (EST)
20:24 (8:24 p.m.) Central Standard Time (CST)
19:24 (7:24 p.m.) Mountain Standard Time (MST)
18:24 (6:24 p.m.) Pacific Standard Time (PST)
17:24 (5:24 p.m.) Alaska Standard Time (AKST)
16:24 (4:24 p.m.) Hawaiian Standard Time (HST)

Astronomers say the moon is full at the instant that the moon is directly opposite the sun in ecliptic or celestial longitude. Another way of looking at it, the moon-sun elongation at full moon equals 180o. Click here to find out the present moon-sun elongation, remembering that a positive number means a waxing moon and a negative number a waning moon.

However, since the moon stays more or less opposite the sun throughout the night tonight, we can say the moon is full all night long. Around the world tonight, we can expect the moon to rise around sunset, climb highest up for the night around midnight and to set around sunrise. On the night of the full moon, the moon typically shines from dusk until dawn.

Image via US Naval Observatory. The day and night sides of Earth at the instant of full moon (2018 January 2 at 2:24 Universal Time). The shadow line at left depicts sunset January 1, and the shadow line at right represents sunrise January 2.

Tonight’s full moon is the second in a series of three successive full moon supermoons occurring on December 3, 2017, plus January 2 and 31, 2018. As is typically the case, the second of these three full moon supermoons most closely coincides with lunar perigee, showcasing the closest and largest supermoon in this grand procession of supermoons.

Full moon distance (2017 Dec 3 at 15:47 UTC): 357,987 km
Lunar apogee distance (2017 Dec 4 at 8:42 UTC): 357,492 km

Full moon distance (2018 Jan 2 at 2:24 UTC): 356,846 km
Lunar perigee distance (2018 Jan 1 at 21:54 UTC): 356,565 km

Full moon distance (2018 Jan 31 at 13:27 UTC): 360,199 km
Lunar perigee distance (2018 Jan 30 at 9:54 UTC): 358,995 km

Tonight’s full moon is also the first of two January 2018 full moons. Some people will call the next full moon on January 31 a Blue Moon because it’s the second of two full moons to occur in one calendar month. Moreover, this second supermoon of January 2018 will stage a total eclipse of the moon.

Super Blue Moon eclipse coming up on January 31

Seven lunar months (full moons) after the year’s closest supermoon will usher in the smallest full moon of the year (micro-moon) on July 27, 2018. At that juncture, the full moon and lunar apogee – the moon’s farthest point from Earth in its orbit – will both fall on the same date. That full moon on July 27, 2018, will be nearly 30,000 miles (50,000 km) farther from Earth than tonight’s closest and largest supermoon.

Jacob Zimmer caught the December 3, 2017 full supermoon over downtown Tampa, Florida. See more photos of December’s supermoon.

Bottom line: Enjoy the “most super” supermoon of the year on the night of January 1-2, 2018, as it lights up the nighttime from dusk to dawn.

Resources:

Phases of the moon: 2001 to 2100

Moon at perigee and apogee: 2001 to 2100

Lunar perigee and apogee calculator



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2ibNA7D

Top image: December 3, 2017 supermoon via Henrique Feliciano Silva in Lisbon, Portugal.

See more images of December’s supermoon.

The first of two January 2018 full moons falls on the evening of January 1, 2018, for most of the Western Hemisphere (January 2 for the Eastern Hemisphere). This full moon comes only 4.5 hours after the moon reaches lunar perigee – the moon’s closest point to Earth in its monthly orbit. Thus this full moon presents the closest – and thereby the largest and brightest – supermoon of 2018.

Of the 13 full moons and 14 lunar perigees occurring in 2018, this is the closest alignment of full moon and lunar perigee for the year.

This close coincidence of full moon and perigee in early January 2018 not only gives us the closest full moon of 2018 but also the closest lunar perigee of 2018. See below to note the nearness in time of this perigee and full moon.

Lunar perigee distance (2018 Jan 1 at 21:54 UTC): 356,565 km
Full moon distance (2018 Jan 2 at 2:24 UTC): 356,846 km

Join the Virtual Telescope Project in Rome for an online viewing of the January 1, 2018 supermoon.

Here’s a comparison between the December 3 full moon at perigree (closest to Earth for the month) and the year’s farthest full moon in June at apogee (farthest from Earth for the month) by Muzamir Mazlan at Telok Kemang Observatory, Port Dickson, Malaysia. See more photos of December’s supermoon.

To the eye alone, a supermoon probably doesn’t look any larger than an ordinary full moon (although it might look brighter). But Earth’s oceans feel the gravity of the extra-close supermoon, which causes particularly high and low tides. James Younger wrote on December 3, 2017: “I held a low-tide supermoon photography event at Island View Beach, Vancouver Island, B.C..” See more photos of December’s supermoon.

Although the moon turns precisely full at the same instant worldwide (January 2 at 2:24 Universal Time), the time – and possibly the date – of the full moon varies according to one’s time zone. At North American and US time zones, the full moon actually comes to pass on the evening of January 1 at these times:

22:24 (10:24 p.m.) Atlantic Standard Time (AST)
21:24 (9:24 p.m.) Eastern Standard Time (EST)
20:24 (8:24 p.m.) Central Standard Time (CST)
19:24 (7:24 p.m.) Mountain Standard Time (MST)
18:24 (6:24 p.m.) Pacific Standard Time (PST)
17:24 (5:24 p.m.) Alaska Standard Time (AKST)
16:24 (4:24 p.m.) Hawaiian Standard Time (HST)

Astronomers say the moon is full at the instant that the moon is directly opposite the sun in ecliptic or celestial longitude. Another way of looking at it, the moon-sun elongation at full moon equals 180o. Click here to find out the present moon-sun elongation, remembering that a positive number means a waxing moon and a negative number a waning moon.

However, since the moon stays more or less opposite the sun throughout the night tonight, we can say the moon is full all night long. Around the world tonight, we can expect the moon to rise around sunset, climb highest up for the night around midnight and to set around sunrise. On the night of the full moon, the moon typically shines from dusk until dawn.

Image via US Naval Observatory. The day and night sides of Earth at the instant of full moon (2018 January 2 at 2:24 Universal Time). The shadow line at left depicts sunset January 1, and the shadow line at right represents sunrise January 2.

Tonight’s full moon is the second in a series of three successive full moon supermoons occurring on December 3, 2017, plus January 2 and 31, 2018. As is typically the case, the second of these three full moon supermoons most closely coincides with lunar perigee, showcasing the closest and largest supermoon in this grand procession of supermoons.

Full moon distance (2017 Dec 3 at 15:47 UTC): 357,987 km
Lunar apogee distance (2017 Dec 4 at 8:42 UTC): 357,492 km

Full moon distance (2018 Jan 2 at 2:24 UTC): 356,846 km
Lunar perigee distance (2018 Jan 1 at 21:54 UTC): 356,565 km

Full moon distance (2018 Jan 31 at 13:27 UTC): 360,199 km
Lunar perigee distance (2018 Jan 30 at 9:54 UTC): 358,995 km

Tonight’s full moon is also the first of two January 2018 full moons. Some people will call the next full moon on January 31 a Blue Moon because it’s the second of two full moons to occur in one calendar month. Moreover, this second supermoon of January 2018 will stage a total eclipse of the moon.

Super Blue Moon eclipse coming up on January 31

Seven lunar months (full moons) after the year’s closest supermoon will usher in the smallest full moon of the year (micro-moon) on July 27, 2018. At that juncture, the full moon and lunar apogee – the moon’s farthest point from Earth in its orbit – will both fall on the same date. That full moon on July 27, 2018, will be nearly 30,000 miles (50,000 km) farther from Earth than tonight’s closest and largest supermoon.

Jacob Zimmer caught the December 3, 2017 full supermoon over downtown Tampa, Florida. See more photos of December’s supermoon.

Bottom line: Enjoy the “most super” supermoon of the year on the night of January 1-2, 2018, as it lights up the nighttime from dusk to dawn.

Resources:

Phases of the moon: 2001 to 2100

Moon at perigee and apogee: 2001 to 2100

Lunar perigee and apogee calculator



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2ibNA7D

Why the New Year begins on January 1

Children in Hong Kong wear 2018 glasses during New Year’s Eve celebrations. Image via Kin Cheung/ AP/ Aljazeera.com.

The date of a new year isn’t precisely fixed by any natural or seasonal marker. Instead, our celebration of New Year’s Day on January 1 is a civil event. That’s despite the fact that, for us in the Northern Hemisphere where the amount of daylight has ebbed to its lowest point and the days are getting longer again, there’s a feeling of rebirth in the air.

Our modern celebration of New Year’s Day stems from an ancient Roman custom, the feast of the Roman god Janus – god of doorways and beginnings. The name for the month of January also comes from Janus, who was depicted as having two faces. One face of Janus looked back into the past, and the other peered forward to the future.

To celebrate the new year, the Romans made promises to Janus. From this ancient practice comes our tradition of making New Year’s Day resolutions.

Best New Year’s gift ever! EarthSky moon calendar for 2018

Janus the doorkeeper via tablesbeyondbelief.

January 1 hasn’t been New Year’s Day throughout history, though. In the past, some New Year’s celebrations took place at an equinox, a day when the sun is above Earth’s equator, and night and day are equal in length. In many cultures, the March or vernal equinox marks a time of transition and new beginnings, and so cultural celebrations of a new year were natural for that equinox. The September or autumnal equinox also had its proponents for the beginning of a new year. For example, the French Republican Calendar – implemented during the French Revolution and used for about 12 years from late 1793 to 1805 – started its year at the September equinox.

The Greeks celebrated the new year on the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year.

Today, although many do celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1, some cultures and religions do not. Jews use a lunar calendar and celebrate the New Year on Rosh Hashana, the first day of the month of Tishri, which is the first month of their calendar. This date usually occurs in September.

Most are also familiar with the Chinese New Year, celebrated for weeks in January or early February. In 2018, the Chinese New Year of the Dog begins on February 16.

By the way, in addition to the longer days here in the Northern Hemisphere, there’s another astronomical occurrence around January 1 each year that’s also related to Earth’s year, as defined by our orbit around the sun. That is, Earth’s perihelion – or closest point to the sun – happens every year in early January. In 2018, perihelion comes on January 3.

Image credit: NASA

We don’t celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1 for this reason, but it would make sense if we did. Perihelion – our closest point to the sun in our yearly orbit – takes place each year around January 3. Image via NASA

Bottom line: The reason to celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1 is historical, not astronomical. The New Year was celebrated according to astronomical events – such as equinoxes and solstices – eons ago. Our modern New Year’s celebration stems from the ancient, two-faced, Roman god Janus, after whom the month of January is also named. One face of Janus looked back into the past, and the other peered forward to the future.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2iSC5Ag

Children in Hong Kong wear 2018 glasses during New Year’s Eve celebrations. Image via Kin Cheung/ AP/ Aljazeera.com.

The date of a new year isn’t precisely fixed by any natural or seasonal marker. Instead, our celebration of New Year’s Day on January 1 is a civil event. That’s despite the fact that, for us in the Northern Hemisphere where the amount of daylight has ebbed to its lowest point and the days are getting longer again, there’s a feeling of rebirth in the air.

Our modern celebration of New Year’s Day stems from an ancient Roman custom, the feast of the Roman god Janus – god of doorways and beginnings. The name for the month of January also comes from Janus, who was depicted as having two faces. One face of Janus looked back into the past, and the other peered forward to the future.

To celebrate the new year, the Romans made promises to Janus. From this ancient practice comes our tradition of making New Year’s Day resolutions.

Best New Year’s gift ever! EarthSky moon calendar for 2018

Janus the doorkeeper via tablesbeyondbelief.

January 1 hasn’t been New Year’s Day throughout history, though. In the past, some New Year’s celebrations took place at an equinox, a day when the sun is above Earth’s equator, and night and day are equal in length. In many cultures, the March or vernal equinox marks a time of transition and new beginnings, and so cultural celebrations of a new year were natural for that equinox. The September or autumnal equinox also had its proponents for the beginning of a new year. For example, the French Republican Calendar – implemented during the French Revolution and used for about 12 years from late 1793 to 1805 – started its year at the September equinox.

The Greeks celebrated the new year on the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year.

Today, although many do celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1, some cultures and religions do not. Jews use a lunar calendar and celebrate the New Year on Rosh Hashana, the first day of the month of Tishri, which is the first month of their calendar. This date usually occurs in September.

Most are also familiar with the Chinese New Year, celebrated for weeks in January or early February. In 2018, the Chinese New Year of the Dog begins on February 16.

By the way, in addition to the longer days here in the Northern Hemisphere, there’s another astronomical occurrence around January 1 each year that’s also related to Earth’s year, as defined by our orbit around the sun. That is, Earth’s perihelion – or closest point to the sun – happens every year in early January. In 2018, perihelion comes on January 3.

Image credit: NASA

We don’t celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1 for this reason, but it would make sense if we did. Perihelion – our closest point to the sun in our yearly orbit – takes place each year around January 3. Image via NASA

Bottom line: The reason to celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1 is historical, not astronomical. The New Year was celebrated according to astronomical events – such as equinoxes and solstices – eons ago. Our modern New Year’s celebration stems from the ancient, two-faced, Roman god Janus, after whom the month of January is also named. One face of Janus looked back into the past, and the other peered forward to the future.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2iSC5Ag

2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #52

Happy New Year!... Story of the Week... Analysis of the Week... Toon of the Week... Quote of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Poster of the Week...  SkS Week in Review... 97 Hours of Consensus...

Happy New Year!

2017 Poster 52 

Happy New Year from the all-volunteer, SkS author team!


Story of the Week...

How We Know It Was Climate Change

Houston Floding_Hurricane Harvey Sep 2017 

Flooding south of Houston in September in the wake of Hurricane Harvey. Credit Barbara Davidson for The New York Times

This was a year of devastating weather, including historic hurricanes and wildfires here in the United States. Did climate change play a role? Increasingly, scientists are able to answer that question — and increasingly, the answer is yes.

My lab recently published a new framework for examining connections between global warming and extreme events. Other scientists are doing similar research. How would we go about testing whether global warming has influenced the events that occurred this year?

Consider Hurricane Harvey, which caused enormous destruction along the Gulf Coast; it will cost an estimated $180 billion to recover from the hurricane’s storm surge, high winds and record-setting precipitation and flooding. Did global warming contribute to this disaster?

The word “contribute” is key. This doesn’t mean that without global warming, there wouldn’t have been a hurricane. Rather, the question is whether changes in the climate raised the odds of producing extreme conditions. 

How We Know It Was Climate Change, Opinion by Noah S Diffenbach, Sunday Review, New York Times, Dec 29, 2017


Analysis of the Week...

The President Doesn't Care to Understand Global Warming

President Trump raises his hand toward a camera. President Trump departs for holiday travel to his Mar-a-Lago estate on Dec 22

President Trump departs for holiday travel to his Mar-a-Lago estate on Friday, December 22

In the first novel ever written about Sherlock Homes, we learn something peculiar about the London detective. Holmes, supposedly a modern man and a keen expert in the workings of the world, does not know how the solar system works. Specifically he is unfamiliar with the heliocentric Copernican model, which, upon its slow acceptance in the 17th century, revolutionized Western thought about the place of our species in the universe.

“What the deuce is it to me?” Holmes asks his sputtering soon-to-be sidekick, Dr. Watson. “You say that we go ’round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of difference to me or to my work.”

Brains are a kind of “little empty attic,” says the detective, and they should be filled only with furniture that’s useful to one’s line of work. Holmes doesn’t doubt the Copernican model; he simply has no use for it in solving murder cases. “Now that I do know it,” he adds, “I shall do my best to forget it.”

Thursday night, as record lows gripped most of the country’s northern half, President Trump clarified that he does not understand another revolution in our knowledge of the natural order of things: the theory of human-driven climate change.

The President Doesn't Care to Understand Global Warming by Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic, Dec 29, 2017 


Toon of the Week...

2017 Toon 52 


Quote of the Week...

I like to think of the Earth’s climate like a heavy train. A train cannot stop quickly; the brakes have to be applied far ahead of an obstacle. The ocean is our “climate train.”

US government climate report looks at how the oceans are buffering climate change by John Abraham, Climate Consensus - the 97%, Guardian, Dec 26, 2017 


Coming Soon on SkS...

  • On its hundredth birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming' (Ben Franta)
  • 2017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming (Dana)
  • SkS Year in Review (Baerbel)
  • Guest Post (John Abraham)
  • New research this week (Ari)
  • 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #1 (John Hartz)
  • 2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Waming Digest #1 (John Hartz)

Poster of the Week...

 2017 Poster 52


SkS Week in Review... 


97 Hours of Consensus...

97 Hours: John Mitchell 

 

John Mitchell's bio page and Quote source

High resolution JPEG (1024 pixels wide)



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2C175bu

Happy New Year!... Story of the Week... Analysis of the Week... Toon of the Week... Quote of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Poster of the Week...  SkS Week in Review... 97 Hours of Consensus...

Happy New Year!

2017 Poster 52 

Happy New Year from the all-volunteer, SkS author team!


Story of the Week...

How We Know It Was Climate Change

Houston Floding_Hurricane Harvey Sep 2017 

Flooding south of Houston in September in the wake of Hurricane Harvey. Credit Barbara Davidson for The New York Times

This was a year of devastating weather, including historic hurricanes and wildfires here in the United States. Did climate change play a role? Increasingly, scientists are able to answer that question — and increasingly, the answer is yes.

My lab recently published a new framework for examining connections between global warming and extreme events. Other scientists are doing similar research. How would we go about testing whether global warming has influenced the events that occurred this year?

Consider Hurricane Harvey, which caused enormous destruction along the Gulf Coast; it will cost an estimated $180 billion to recover from the hurricane’s storm surge, high winds and record-setting precipitation and flooding. Did global warming contribute to this disaster?

The word “contribute” is key. This doesn’t mean that without global warming, there wouldn’t have been a hurricane. Rather, the question is whether changes in the climate raised the odds of producing extreme conditions. 

How We Know It Was Climate Change, Opinion by Noah S Diffenbach, Sunday Review, New York Times, Dec 29, 2017


Analysis of the Week...

The President Doesn't Care to Understand Global Warming

President Trump raises his hand toward a camera. President Trump departs for holiday travel to his Mar-a-Lago estate on Dec 22

President Trump departs for holiday travel to his Mar-a-Lago estate on Friday, December 22

In the first novel ever written about Sherlock Homes, we learn something peculiar about the London detective. Holmes, supposedly a modern man and a keen expert in the workings of the world, does not know how the solar system works. Specifically he is unfamiliar with the heliocentric Copernican model, which, upon its slow acceptance in the 17th century, revolutionized Western thought about the place of our species in the universe.

“What the deuce is it to me?” Holmes asks his sputtering soon-to-be sidekick, Dr. Watson. “You say that we go ’round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of difference to me or to my work.”

Brains are a kind of “little empty attic,” says the detective, and they should be filled only with furniture that’s useful to one’s line of work. Holmes doesn’t doubt the Copernican model; he simply has no use for it in solving murder cases. “Now that I do know it,” he adds, “I shall do my best to forget it.”

Thursday night, as record lows gripped most of the country’s northern half, President Trump clarified that he does not understand another revolution in our knowledge of the natural order of things: the theory of human-driven climate change.

The President Doesn't Care to Understand Global Warming by Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic, Dec 29, 2017 


Toon of the Week...

2017 Toon 52 


Quote of the Week...

I like to think of the Earth’s climate like a heavy train. A train cannot stop quickly; the brakes have to be applied far ahead of an obstacle. The ocean is our “climate train.”

US government climate report looks at how the oceans are buffering climate change by John Abraham, Climate Consensus - the 97%, Guardian, Dec 26, 2017 


Coming Soon on SkS...

  • On its hundredth birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming' (Ben Franta)
  • 2017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming (Dana)
  • SkS Year in Review (Baerbel)
  • Guest Post (John Abraham)
  • New research this week (Ari)
  • 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #1 (John Hartz)
  • 2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Waming Digest #1 (John Hartz)

Poster of the Week...

 2017 Poster 52


SkS Week in Review... 


97 Hours of Consensus...

97 Hours: John Mitchell 

 

John Mitchell's bio page and Quote source

High resolution JPEG (1024 pixels wide)



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2C175bu

Does a supermoon have a super effect on us?

A merge of two images: moon from Wikimedia Commons and Superman emblem, via layoutsparks.com

EarthSky’s 2018 lunar calendars are here! Get yours while they last.

The term supermoon denotes a new or full moon that occurs at roughly the same time the moon is nearest Earth in its monthly orbit. We’re coming up on the “most super” supermoon of 2018 on January 1 (January 2 for Asia, Australia, New Zealand), which will light up the nighttime from dusk to dawn.

An astrologer, not an astronomer, coined the term supermoon, and it has come into wide usage only recently. It’s an example of modern folklore, largely accepted and spread by a now-global community, via word of mouth and the Internet.

Some might suppose that a supermoon has some kind of effect on people on Earth. But does it? I decided to calculate the values of different influences on individuals at the extreme of lunar perigee, the point at which the moon is closest to Earth and, presumably, has the greatest effect on our planet.

Image courtesy of Jim Fisher.

Astronomers use the term perigee to describe the moon’s closest point to Earth, from Greek words peri meaning “near” and gee meaning “Earth.”

In astronomy and other sciences, a related term – perigean tides – refers to the higher tides that can occur when a new or full moon and the month’s perigee coincide, as they fairly frequently do. Simply put, an extra-close new or full moon causes higher-than-usual perigean tides.

What’s more, given the change in distance between the moon’s farthest and closest points, the full moon can appear as much as 14% larger in the sky and 30% brighter to our eyes than at minimum size and brightness.

These changes do not come all of a sudden from month to month, however, and without anything with which to compare them, the changes in the moon’s size or brightness are hard to quantify by simple observation. To notice the difference, you would need to see the apogean (smallest) full moon and the perigean (largest) full moon side by side. For most of us, that’s only possible through photography or through some form of direct measurement, although careful observers have claimed to be able to discern a supermoon’s extra large size with the eye.

During the time of a supermoon – or any new or full moon – our satellite is in line with the sun. At that time, the sun and moon’s gravitational effects combine. For reasons we won’t discuss here, the sun’s gravitational effect on Earth (as in influencing the tides) is only about half that of the moon. For this discussion, we will simply ignore the sun’s influence.

When the moon is closest to the Earth, its gravitational pull is at its peak.

So the question becomes, how much does the moon’s gravitational influence on Earth vary from minimum (apogee, or farthest point from the planet) to maximum (perigee)?

I won’t bore you (or scare you!) with the math, but the variation from minimum lunar pull to maximum pull is roughly 23 percent. That sounds like a lot. However, it amounts to  less than 2 ten-thousandths of the mass (or less precisely, the “weight”) of the moon.

Join the Virtual Telescope Project in Rome for an online viewing of the January 1, 2018 supermoon.

More importantly from an astrological perspective (I presume, since I decidedly am not an astrologer) would be the effect on a human being. Consider an 80-kilogram (176-pound) human being. The maximum difference between apogean and perigean moons is about 73 milligrams, or about 1/14th the mass of an ordinary paper clip.

If you factor in the solar gravity effect for a supermoon, or full moon closest to Earth, this effect may rise to about 110 milligrams, roughly equivalent to about 1/9th the mass of a paperclip.

In either case, the effects are imperceptible, and far smaller than those encountered in other everyday situations, such as being near a mountain or even a large building.

But, you might counter, I said earlier than an extra-close full moon causes higher-than-usual perigean tides. The tides are a very different situation from human beings. Tides work through what is called a differential gravitational effect. Specifically, the force of gravity exerted on the part of the Earth opposite the moon (the far side of Earth, as seen from the moon) is slightly less than the force of gravity exerted on the part of the Earth directly beneath the moon (the Earth’s near side, as seen from the moon) at any given time. Why? Because there’s an additional distance – about 8,000 miles – from one side of Earth to the other. The force of gravity weakens rapidly with increasing distance, producing the differential.

The result of this differential gravitational effect of the moon is that our planet is stretched slightly, along a line between the Earth and moon. The body of the Earth is fairly rigid, so it does not stretch much, but the oceans are much more easily moved. Thus the effect piles up water on either side of Earth, and these piles of water – created by the differential gravitational effect – are the tides. Note that, on average, the tidal effect is quite small. It raises tides only a few feet across an 8,000-mile-wide planet Earth.

Technically, the same effect acts on your body as well, since one side is farther from the moon than the other. However, the difference in distance is on the order of one foot, rather than thousands of miles. Thus the differential is millions of times less, and the effect on a human body infinitesimally small and irrelevant.

Supermoons are important because they focus attention on the moon, and nature in general. But the bottom line is that any physical effects of supermoons are not exactly super. There is no reasonable evidence that they cause super disasters. The effects that people may attribute to them are psychological rather than physical.

There are several supermoons this year and every year. To learn about supermoons in general try this EarthSky post: What is a supermoon?

Enjoying EarthSky? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!

Will Saunders caught the moonset – at nearly the crest of the moon’s full phase – from Monument Valley, on the Utah-Arizona border.

Bottom line: Sure, the moon (and sun) creates the tides. And an extra close moon can create higher-than-usual tides. But this doesn’t mean that an extra close new or full moon – a supermoon – has an effect on human beings. In fact, the effects of a supermoon are imperceptible, and far smaller than those encountered in other everyday situations, such as being near a mountain or even a large building.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/12HZwhf

A merge of two images: moon from Wikimedia Commons and Superman emblem, via layoutsparks.com

EarthSky’s 2018 lunar calendars are here! Get yours while they last.

The term supermoon denotes a new or full moon that occurs at roughly the same time the moon is nearest Earth in its monthly orbit. We’re coming up on the “most super” supermoon of 2018 on January 1 (January 2 for Asia, Australia, New Zealand), which will light up the nighttime from dusk to dawn.

An astrologer, not an astronomer, coined the term supermoon, and it has come into wide usage only recently. It’s an example of modern folklore, largely accepted and spread by a now-global community, via word of mouth and the Internet.

Some might suppose that a supermoon has some kind of effect on people on Earth. But does it? I decided to calculate the values of different influences on individuals at the extreme of lunar perigee, the point at which the moon is closest to Earth and, presumably, has the greatest effect on our planet.

Image courtesy of Jim Fisher.

Astronomers use the term perigee to describe the moon’s closest point to Earth, from Greek words peri meaning “near” and gee meaning “Earth.”

In astronomy and other sciences, a related term – perigean tides – refers to the higher tides that can occur when a new or full moon and the month’s perigee coincide, as they fairly frequently do. Simply put, an extra-close new or full moon causes higher-than-usual perigean tides.

What’s more, given the change in distance between the moon’s farthest and closest points, the full moon can appear as much as 14% larger in the sky and 30% brighter to our eyes than at minimum size and brightness.

These changes do not come all of a sudden from month to month, however, and without anything with which to compare them, the changes in the moon’s size or brightness are hard to quantify by simple observation. To notice the difference, you would need to see the apogean (smallest) full moon and the perigean (largest) full moon side by side. For most of us, that’s only possible through photography or through some form of direct measurement, although careful observers have claimed to be able to discern a supermoon’s extra large size with the eye.

During the time of a supermoon – or any new or full moon – our satellite is in line with the sun. At that time, the sun and moon’s gravitational effects combine. For reasons we won’t discuss here, the sun’s gravitational effect on Earth (as in influencing the tides) is only about half that of the moon. For this discussion, we will simply ignore the sun’s influence.

When the moon is closest to the Earth, its gravitational pull is at its peak.

So the question becomes, how much does the moon’s gravitational influence on Earth vary from minimum (apogee, or farthest point from the planet) to maximum (perigee)?

I won’t bore you (or scare you!) with the math, but the variation from minimum lunar pull to maximum pull is roughly 23 percent. That sounds like a lot. However, it amounts to  less than 2 ten-thousandths of the mass (or less precisely, the “weight”) of the moon.

Join the Virtual Telescope Project in Rome for an online viewing of the January 1, 2018 supermoon.

More importantly from an astrological perspective (I presume, since I decidedly am not an astrologer) would be the effect on a human being. Consider an 80-kilogram (176-pound) human being. The maximum difference between apogean and perigean moons is about 73 milligrams, or about 1/14th the mass of an ordinary paper clip.

If you factor in the solar gravity effect for a supermoon, or full moon closest to Earth, this effect may rise to about 110 milligrams, roughly equivalent to about 1/9th the mass of a paperclip.

In either case, the effects are imperceptible, and far smaller than those encountered in other everyday situations, such as being near a mountain or even a large building.

But, you might counter, I said earlier than an extra-close full moon causes higher-than-usual perigean tides. The tides are a very different situation from human beings. Tides work through what is called a differential gravitational effect. Specifically, the force of gravity exerted on the part of the Earth opposite the moon (the far side of Earth, as seen from the moon) is slightly less than the force of gravity exerted on the part of the Earth directly beneath the moon (the Earth’s near side, as seen from the moon) at any given time. Why? Because there’s an additional distance – about 8,000 miles – from one side of Earth to the other. The force of gravity weakens rapidly with increasing distance, producing the differential.

The result of this differential gravitational effect of the moon is that our planet is stretched slightly, along a line between the Earth and moon. The body of the Earth is fairly rigid, so it does not stretch much, but the oceans are much more easily moved. Thus the effect piles up water on either side of Earth, and these piles of water – created by the differential gravitational effect – are the tides. Note that, on average, the tidal effect is quite small. It raises tides only a few feet across an 8,000-mile-wide planet Earth.

Technically, the same effect acts on your body as well, since one side is farther from the moon than the other. However, the difference in distance is on the order of one foot, rather than thousands of miles. Thus the differential is millions of times less, and the effect on a human body infinitesimally small and irrelevant.

Supermoons are important because they focus attention on the moon, and nature in general. But the bottom line is that any physical effects of supermoons are not exactly super. There is no reasonable evidence that they cause super disasters. The effects that people may attribute to them are psychological rather than physical.

There are several supermoons this year and every year. To learn about supermoons in general try this EarthSky post: What is a supermoon?

Enjoying EarthSky? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!

Will Saunders caught the moonset – at nearly the crest of the moon’s full phase – from Monument Valley, on the Utah-Arizona border.

Bottom line: Sure, the moon (and sun) creates the tides. And an extra close moon can create higher-than-usual tides. But this doesn’t mean that an extra close new or full moon – a supermoon – has an effect on human beings. In fact, the effects of a supermoon are imperceptible, and far smaller than those encountered in other everyday situations, such as being near a mountain or even a large building.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/12HZwhf

Full moon obscures Quadrantid meteor shower

View larger. | In 2014, as the Quadrantids were flying, those at far northern latitudes were seeing auroras. Photo by Tommy Eliassen.

The Quadrantid meteor shower is 2018’s first major meteor shower. The unfortunate news is that, in 2018, the closest and largest full moon of the year nearly coincides with the peak of this annual meteor shower. Although the Quadrantids have been known to produce some 50-100 meteors in a dark sky, their peak is extremely narrow. Peaks of the Perseid or Geminid meteor showers persist for a day or more, allowing all time zones around the world to enjoy a good display of Perseids and Geminids. But the Quadrantids’ peak lasts only a few hours. So you have to be on the right part of Earth – preferably with the radiant high in your sky – in order to experience the peak of the Quadrantids. What’s more, the shower favors the Northern Hemisphere because its radiant point is so far north on the sky’s dome. Follow the links below to learn more about the Quadrantids in 2018.

Peak dates for the Quadrantid shower in 2018

Where is the Quadrantids’ radiant point?

The Quadrantids are named for a constellation that no longer exists.

Quadrantid meteors have a mysterious parent object.

Barry Simmons in Lake Martin, Alabama captured this Quadrantid meteor on the morning of January 3, 2014. Thank you, Barry.

Barry Simmons in Lake Martin, Alabama captured this Quadrantid meteor on the morning of January 3, 2014. Thank you, Barry.

Peak dates for the Quadrantid shower in 2018 In 2018, the Observer’s Handbook 2018 published by the Royal Astronomical Society in Canada gives the peak as January 3 at 21 hours UTC. The International Meteor Organization seems to be in close agreement, listing 22 hours UTC as the peak. Keep in mind the prediction of the Quadrantid peak represents an educated guess, not an ironclad guarantee. So you see … this shower is a gamble!

If that prediction of the peak holds true, the northeastern part of North America could have a good shot at viewing the shower on the morning of January 3 – if not for the almost-full waning gibbous moon. If you’re game, try your luck in the predawn hours on Janaury 3 and 4.

From mid-northern latitudes, the radiant point for the Quadrantid shower doesn’t climb over the horizon until after midnight.

Where is the Quadrantids’ radiant point? All other things being equal, for any meteor shower, you are likely to see the most meteors when the radiant is high in the sky. In the case of the Quadrantid shower, the radiant point is seen highest in the sky in the dark hour before dawn.

The radiant point of the Quadrantid shower makes an approximate right angle with the Big Dipper and the bright star Arcturus. If you trace the paths of the Quadrantid meteors backward, they appear to radiate from this point on the starry sky.

Now for our usual caveat. You don’t need to find the meteor shower radiant to see the Quadrantid meteors.

You just have to be at mid-northern or far-northern latitudes, up in the wee hours of the morning and hope the peak comes at just the right time to your part of the world. The meteors will radiate from the northern sky, but appear in all parts of the sky.

The now-defunct constellation Quadrans Muralis, for which the Quadrantids are named. Image via Atlas Coelestis.

The Quadrantids are named for a constellation that no longer exists. Most meteor showers are named for the constellations from which they appear to radiate. So it is with the Quadrantids. But the Quadrantids’ constellation no longer exists, except in memory. The name Quadrantids comes from the constellation Quadrans Muralis (Mural Quadrant), created by the French astronomer Jerome Lalande in 1795. This now-obsolete constellation was located between the constellations of Bootes the Herdsman and Draco the Dragon. Where did it go?

To understand the history of the Quadrantids’ name, we have to go back to the earliest observations of this shower. In early January 1825, Antonio Brucalassi in Italy reported that:

… the atmosphere was traversed by a multitude of the luminous bodies known by the name of falling stars.

They appeared to radiate from Quadrans Muralis. In 1839, Adolphe Quetelet of Brussels Observatory in Belgium and Edward C. Herrick in Connecticut independently made the suggestion that the Quadrantids are an annual shower.

But, in 1922, the International Astronomical Union devised a list 88 modern constellations. The list was agreed upon by the International Astronomical Union at its inaugural General Assembly held in Rome in May 1922. It did not include a constellation Quadrans Muralis.

Today, this meteor shower retains the name Quadrantids, for the original and now obsolete constellation Quadrans Muralis.

The radiant point for the Quadrantids is now considered to be at the northern tip of Bootes, near the Big Dipper asterism in our sky, not far from Bootes’ brightest star Arcturus. It is very far north on the sky’s dome, which is why Southern Hemisphere observers probably won’t see many (if any) Quadrantid meteors. Most of the meteors simply won’t make it above the horizon for Southern Hemisphere skywatchers. But some might!

In 2003, Peter Jenniskens proposed that this object, 2003 EH1, is the parent body of the Quadrantid meteor shower.

Quadrantid meteors have a mysterious parent object. In 2003, astronomer Peter Jenniskens tentatively identified the parent body of the Quadrantids as the asteroid 2003 EH1. If indeed this body is the Quadrantids parent, then the Quadrantids, like the Geminid meteors, come from a rocky body – not an icy comet. Strange.

In turn, though, 2003 EH1 might be the same object as the comet C/1490 Y1, which was observed by Chinese, Japanese and Korean astronomers 500 years ago.

So the exact story behind the Quadrantids’ parent object remains somewhat mysterious.

Bottom line: The first major meteor shower of 2018, and every year, the Quadrantid meteor shower, will probably be at its best in the hours between midnight and dawn January 3. Unfortunately, in 2018, the largest full moon of the year will almost coincide with the peak of this annual shower.

Celebrate 2018 with an EarthSky moon calendar!



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View larger. | In 2014, as the Quadrantids were flying, those at far northern latitudes were seeing auroras. Photo by Tommy Eliassen.

The Quadrantid meteor shower is 2018’s first major meteor shower. The unfortunate news is that, in 2018, the closest and largest full moon of the year nearly coincides with the peak of this annual meteor shower. Although the Quadrantids have been known to produce some 50-100 meteors in a dark sky, their peak is extremely narrow. Peaks of the Perseid or Geminid meteor showers persist for a day or more, allowing all time zones around the world to enjoy a good display of Perseids and Geminids. But the Quadrantids’ peak lasts only a few hours. So you have to be on the right part of Earth – preferably with the radiant high in your sky – in order to experience the peak of the Quadrantids. What’s more, the shower favors the Northern Hemisphere because its radiant point is so far north on the sky’s dome. Follow the links below to learn more about the Quadrantids in 2018.

Peak dates for the Quadrantid shower in 2018

Where is the Quadrantids’ radiant point?

The Quadrantids are named for a constellation that no longer exists.

Quadrantid meteors have a mysterious parent object.

Barry Simmons in Lake Martin, Alabama captured this Quadrantid meteor on the morning of January 3, 2014. Thank you, Barry.

Barry Simmons in Lake Martin, Alabama captured this Quadrantid meteor on the morning of January 3, 2014. Thank you, Barry.

Peak dates for the Quadrantid shower in 2018 In 2018, the Observer’s Handbook 2018 published by the Royal Astronomical Society in Canada gives the peak as January 3 at 21 hours UTC. The International Meteor Organization seems to be in close agreement, listing 22 hours UTC as the peak. Keep in mind the prediction of the Quadrantid peak represents an educated guess, not an ironclad guarantee. So you see … this shower is a gamble!

If that prediction of the peak holds true, the northeastern part of North America could have a good shot at viewing the shower on the morning of January 3 – if not for the almost-full waning gibbous moon. If you’re game, try your luck in the predawn hours on Janaury 3 and 4.

From mid-northern latitudes, the radiant point for the Quadrantid shower doesn’t climb over the horizon until after midnight.

Where is the Quadrantids’ radiant point? All other things being equal, for any meteor shower, you are likely to see the most meteors when the radiant is high in the sky. In the case of the Quadrantid shower, the radiant point is seen highest in the sky in the dark hour before dawn.

The radiant point of the Quadrantid shower makes an approximate right angle with the Big Dipper and the bright star Arcturus. If you trace the paths of the Quadrantid meteors backward, they appear to radiate from this point on the starry sky.

Now for our usual caveat. You don’t need to find the meteor shower radiant to see the Quadrantid meteors.

You just have to be at mid-northern or far-northern latitudes, up in the wee hours of the morning and hope the peak comes at just the right time to your part of the world. The meteors will radiate from the northern sky, but appear in all parts of the sky.

The now-defunct constellation Quadrans Muralis, for which the Quadrantids are named. Image via Atlas Coelestis.

The Quadrantids are named for a constellation that no longer exists. Most meteor showers are named for the constellations from which they appear to radiate. So it is with the Quadrantids. But the Quadrantids’ constellation no longer exists, except in memory. The name Quadrantids comes from the constellation Quadrans Muralis (Mural Quadrant), created by the French astronomer Jerome Lalande in 1795. This now-obsolete constellation was located between the constellations of Bootes the Herdsman and Draco the Dragon. Where did it go?

To understand the history of the Quadrantids’ name, we have to go back to the earliest observations of this shower. In early January 1825, Antonio Brucalassi in Italy reported that:

… the atmosphere was traversed by a multitude of the luminous bodies known by the name of falling stars.

They appeared to radiate from Quadrans Muralis. In 1839, Adolphe Quetelet of Brussels Observatory in Belgium and Edward C. Herrick in Connecticut independently made the suggestion that the Quadrantids are an annual shower.

But, in 1922, the International Astronomical Union devised a list 88 modern constellations. The list was agreed upon by the International Astronomical Union at its inaugural General Assembly held in Rome in May 1922. It did not include a constellation Quadrans Muralis.

Today, this meteor shower retains the name Quadrantids, for the original and now obsolete constellation Quadrans Muralis.

The radiant point for the Quadrantids is now considered to be at the northern tip of Bootes, near the Big Dipper asterism in our sky, not far from Bootes’ brightest star Arcturus. It is very far north on the sky’s dome, which is why Southern Hemisphere observers probably won’t see many (if any) Quadrantid meteors. Most of the meteors simply won’t make it above the horizon for Southern Hemisphere skywatchers. But some might!

In 2003, Peter Jenniskens proposed that this object, 2003 EH1, is the parent body of the Quadrantid meteor shower.

Quadrantid meteors have a mysterious parent object. In 2003, astronomer Peter Jenniskens tentatively identified the parent body of the Quadrantids as the asteroid 2003 EH1. If indeed this body is the Quadrantids parent, then the Quadrantids, like the Geminid meteors, come from a rocky body – not an icy comet. Strange.

In turn, though, 2003 EH1 might be the same object as the comet C/1490 Y1, which was observed by Chinese, Japanese and Korean astronomers 500 years ago.

So the exact story behind the Quadrantids’ parent object remains somewhat mysterious.

Bottom line: The first major meteor shower of 2018, and every year, the Quadrantid meteor shower, will probably be at its best in the hours between midnight and dawn January 3. Unfortunately, in 2018, the largest full moon of the year will almost coincide with the peak of this annual shower.

Celebrate 2018 with an EarthSky moon calendar!



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