Tips for watching North Taurid meteors

Photo top of post: Taurid fireball on the evening of October 21, 2017 from Joanne West at Gold Canyon, Arizona. Read more about this photo.

This weekend is a good time to look for North Taurid meteors. This long-lasting shower – which, with its sister shower, the South Taurids – runs throughout late October and November. The nominal peak of the North Taurids is on the night of November 11-12, 2017. Generally, this shower is at its strongest for several hours, centered around midnight local time. This weekend, a last quarter moon happens on November 10. The Taurids are known for producing bright fireballs, so we’re hoping the wide waning crescent moon in the sky from midnight on won’t wipe all the meteors from view.

You can also watch this shower before the moon rises in late evening or after midnight. After moonrise, the moon will be sitting low in the sky for an hour or so, casting long shadows. If the moon is up when you want to observe, try sitting in a moon shadow with an otherwise open view of sky. Click here for a custom sunrise-sunset calendar. It can also give you moonrise-moonset times if you check right box.

In 2015, we received many reports and photos of bright and amazing Taurid fireballs. Some said that year that the Taurids have a seven-year cycle for such amazing activity. This year hasn’t been nearly as good for the Taruids so far, but meteor showers – by their nature – are hard to predict. They are, after all, the result of streams of debris in space. We don’t have those debris streams precisely mapped. So you never know for sure what is in store, when you watch a meteor shower. Some tips for watching below …

Bright Taurid meteor under the light of a nearly full Hunters Moon – November 6, 2017 – from Eliot Herman in Tucson, Arizona. Read more about this photo.

Note for Southern Hemisphere stargazers: Everything we’re saying here applies to you, too!

1. Keep your expectations real. The South Taurids peak has already passed. And there’s no sharp peak to North Taurids, so don’t expect a shower in the sense of a shower of rain. You might not see any more than five North Taurids an hour, but you can still add a few South Taurid meteors to that mix. It’s not necessarily the number of Taurids that makes this shower amazing. Instead …

2. Watch for fireballs! Both the North and South Taurids are known for having a high percentage of fireballs – extra-bright meteors. That’s what you want to watch for this year. To increase your chances of seeing a really bright meteor …

3. Watch in the hours around midnight. That’s when the radiant point, in the constellation Taurus the Bull, will be well above your horizon. That’s true for both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, by the way.

4. If you do need to watch in the evening hours, be aware that the meteors tend to be few and far between at that time. However, if you’re lucky, you might catch an earthgrazer meteor, which is a slow-moving and long-lasting meteor that travels horizontally across the sky. Worth a try! Plus, the moon won’t be in the sky till late night!

5. The North Taurid meteors’ radiant point is in the constellation Taurus the Bull. In fact, the radiant for this shower is not far from the famous Pleiades star cluster, also known as the Seven Sisters, in Taurus. You don’t need to identify this constellation to see the meteors. They will appear all over the sky. Still, it helps to know when the radiant rises. Taurus rises over the northeast horizon around 7 to 8 p.m. at mid-northern latitudes. At temperate latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, Taurus rises a few hours later.

6. Yes, you can watch the shower no matter where you are on Earth. The constellation Taurus climbs upward as evening deepens into late night, and soars highest for the night shortly after midnight. The higher that Taurus appears in your sky, the more meteors that you’re likely to see. Because Taurus is a northern constellation, it climbs higher in the Northern Hemisphere sky than for our cousins in the Southern Hemisphere.

7. Find a dark place to observe. You don’t need to find the constellation Taurus to enjoy the North Taurid meteor shower. But it does help to find a dark, open sky. Be sure to take along a reclining lawn chair for comfort.

8. Clouded out? Missed it? Nah! This shower will be active for another month or so. Plus the waning crescent moon will make moonlight less of a factor.

Taurid fireballs photos and videos from 2015

It’s time to purchase your 2018 EarthSky moon calendar! Makes a swell gift.

The radiant point of November’s North Taurid meteor shower is in the constellation Taurus the Bull, near the Pleiades star cluster, also known as the Seven Sisters.

A close-up of the Pleiades star cluster. See the little dipper-shaped cluster on the chart above? That’s the Pleiades. It’s easy to see in the night sky. Photo by Dave Dehetre on Flickr.

Bottom line: Meteor forecasters are calling for the night of November 11-12 to be the peak night of the North Taurid meteor. This shower has been known to produce fireballs – very bright meteors. Watch for them.

Easily locate stars and constellations during any day and time with EarthSky’s Planisphere.

EarthSky’s meteor shower guide for 2017

from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1XPVjpu

Photo top of post: Taurid fireball on the evening of October 21, 2017 from Joanne West at Gold Canyon, Arizona. Read more about this photo.

This weekend is a good time to look for North Taurid meteors. This long-lasting shower – which, with its sister shower, the South Taurids – runs throughout late October and November. The nominal peak of the North Taurids is on the night of November 11-12, 2017. Generally, this shower is at its strongest for several hours, centered around midnight local time. This weekend, a last quarter moon happens on November 10. The Taurids are known for producing bright fireballs, so we’re hoping the wide waning crescent moon in the sky from midnight on won’t wipe all the meteors from view.

You can also watch this shower before the moon rises in late evening or after midnight. After moonrise, the moon will be sitting low in the sky for an hour or so, casting long shadows. If the moon is up when you want to observe, try sitting in a moon shadow with an otherwise open view of sky. Click here for a custom sunrise-sunset calendar. It can also give you moonrise-moonset times if you check right box.

In 2015, we received many reports and photos of bright and amazing Taurid fireballs. Some said that year that the Taurids have a seven-year cycle for such amazing activity. This year hasn’t been nearly as good for the Taruids so far, but meteor showers – by their nature – are hard to predict. They are, after all, the result of streams of debris in space. We don’t have those debris streams precisely mapped. So you never know for sure what is in store, when you watch a meteor shower. Some tips for watching below …

Bright Taurid meteor under the light of a nearly full Hunters Moon – November 6, 2017 – from Eliot Herman in Tucson, Arizona. Read more about this photo.

Note for Southern Hemisphere stargazers: Everything we’re saying here applies to you, too!

1. Keep your expectations real. The South Taurids peak has already passed. And there’s no sharp peak to North Taurids, so don’t expect a shower in the sense of a shower of rain. You might not see any more than five North Taurids an hour, but you can still add a few South Taurid meteors to that mix. It’s not necessarily the number of Taurids that makes this shower amazing. Instead …

2. Watch for fireballs! Both the North and South Taurids are known for having a high percentage of fireballs – extra-bright meteors. That’s what you want to watch for this year. To increase your chances of seeing a really bright meteor …

3. Watch in the hours around midnight. That’s when the radiant point, in the constellation Taurus the Bull, will be well above your horizon. That’s true for both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, by the way.

4. If you do need to watch in the evening hours, be aware that the meteors tend to be few and far between at that time. However, if you’re lucky, you might catch an earthgrazer meteor, which is a slow-moving and long-lasting meteor that travels horizontally across the sky. Worth a try! Plus, the moon won’t be in the sky till late night!

5. The North Taurid meteors’ radiant point is in the constellation Taurus the Bull. In fact, the radiant for this shower is not far from the famous Pleiades star cluster, also known as the Seven Sisters, in Taurus. You don’t need to identify this constellation to see the meteors. They will appear all over the sky. Still, it helps to know when the radiant rises. Taurus rises over the northeast horizon around 7 to 8 p.m. at mid-northern latitudes. At temperate latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, Taurus rises a few hours later.

6. Yes, you can watch the shower no matter where you are on Earth. The constellation Taurus climbs upward as evening deepens into late night, and soars highest for the night shortly after midnight. The higher that Taurus appears in your sky, the more meteors that you’re likely to see. Because Taurus is a northern constellation, it climbs higher in the Northern Hemisphere sky than for our cousins in the Southern Hemisphere.

7. Find a dark place to observe. You don’t need to find the constellation Taurus to enjoy the North Taurid meteor shower. But it does help to find a dark, open sky. Be sure to take along a reclining lawn chair for comfort.

8. Clouded out? Missed it? Nah! This shower will be active for another month or so. Plus the waning crescent moon will make moonlight less of a factor.

Taurid fireballs photos and videos from 2015

It’s time to purchase your 2018 EarthSky moon calendar! Makes a swell gift.

The radiant point of November’s North Taurid meteor shower is in the constellation Taurus the Bull, near the Pleiades star cluster, also known as the Seven Sisters.

A close-up of the Pleiades star cluster. See the little dipper-shaped cluster on the chart above? That’s the Pleiades. It’s easy to see in the night sky. Photo by Dave Dehetre on Flickr.

Bottom line: Meteor forecasters are calling for the night of November 11-12 to be the peak night of the North Taurid meteor. This shower has been known to produce fireballs – very bright meteors. Watch for them.

Easily locate stars and constellations during any day and time with EarthSky’s Planisphere.

EarthSky’s meteor shower guide for 2017

from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1XPVjpu

News digest – Testosterone, artificial intelligence, genetic tests, the HPV vaccine and… a cuppa?

• Our top story: women who have had the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine could need just 3 cervical screens in their lifetime to get the same benefits as the current 12 offered to women in the UK. The BBC, Times, Guardian and many others covered this important research, and our blog post explores it in more depth.
• New NHS data also showed a worrying trend that fewer women are attending cervical screening than in previous years. Our news report has the details.
• This week the annual National Cancer Research Institute (NCRI) Cancer Conference was held in Liverpool, where a number of exciting science presentations made headlines. First up was widely-reported research from the University of Oxford, which found that unusually low levels of testosterone in the blood could be linked with a reduced risk of prostate cancer. Our press release has more.
• Next up from NCRI: Cambridge researchers have developed a new genetic test that could help predict if someone will go on to develop oesophageal cancer up to 8 years earlier than when symptoms start to show. But, as our press release explains, this work only looked at people who have Barrett’s oesophagus, and are at a higher risk of developing the disease. The Times and Telegraph covered this story.
• More on the subject of genetic tests with research suggesting new criteria are needed to decide which cancer patients should have tests for faulty BRCA genes, which increase the risk of breast and ovarian cancers. The Telegraph covered this one.
• Another genetic test developed by scientists could spare some breast cancer patients from chemotherapy, reports the Mail Online. By determining how aggressive the disease is, the test could indicate whether the tumour is likely to respond to chemotherapy or not.
• Findings from an early clinical trial presented at NCRI showed an ovarian cancer drug can make its way through the protective blood brain barrier of patients and reach certain brain tumours. As our press release explains, this barrier prevents many drugs from reaching the brain, so the results are an important first step in developing the targeted drug as a potential treatment for glioblastoma. The BBC has more on the story.
• Using artificial intelligence to crunch vast amounts of data could help make radiotherapy for prostate cancer more personal, according to more research showcased at NCRI. Picked up by The Telegraph, Times and others, the technique could help reduce side effects of treatment while boosting its effectiveness, if proven in further studies.
• Last up from NCRI, research from Macmillan Cancer Support and Public Health England found that thousands of people in the UK are surviving for at least two years after being diagnosed with advanced cancer. Macmillan told the BBC and the Guardian that these encouraging figures are likely down to better treatments.

For a round up of the rest of the exciting science presented at NCRI, read our blog post.

• Women who use intrauterine contraceptive devices may have a lower risk of developing cervical cancer, reports the Guardian. While the researchers behind the US study are keen to find out more about the potential link, the most effective ways to reduce the risk of cervical cancer are taking part in cervical screening and having the HPV vaccine.
• The risk that a certain type of breast cancer will return remains unchanged for at least 15 years after women stop hormone treatment, according to new research. As we reported, and as previous research has shown, the results suggest women could benefit from continued hormone therapy beyond the recommended 5 years. Side effects can be tough with these treatments though, and more research is needed to understand how breast cancer cells can lay dormant for decades. Sky News and the Daily Mail also covered this.
• Engineers in Canada have won an award for what they say could be a cheap and portable device to help diagnose melanoma by measuring differences in skin temperature, rather than relying on visual inspection. The inventors hope it could help diagnose the disease earlier, but at the moment it’s still experimental and will need more testing to prove it works. Tech Radar and the Guardian have the details.
• Headlines touting a potential bowel cancer cure over-egged the findings from new US research. The team has combined radiotherapy with immunotherapy to successfully treat a small number of mice with bowel cancer. As we told the Mail Online, there’s a way to go before we know whether this could work in people too.

And finally

• Can a cuppa help beat cancer, asks the Mail Online? The outlet reported on a company that’s selling antioxidant-rich tea, while also researching the potential anti-cancer properties of its ingredients. While foods and drinks rich in antioxidants are often marketed for their supposed health benefits, we’ve detailed on our blog before that the story isn’t so simple. If you like green tea, there’s no harm in enjoying it, but be wary of claims of its anti-cancer activities.

Justine 

from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://ift.tt/2yt6sWv

• Our top story: women who have had the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine could need just 3 cervical screens in their lifetime to get the same benefits as the current 12 offered to women in the UK. The BBC, Times, Guardian and many others covered this important research, and our blog post explores it in more depth.
• New NHS data also showed a worrying trend that fewer women are attending cervical screening than in previous years. Our news report has the details.
• This week the annual National Cancer Research Institute (NCRI) Cancer Conference was held in Liverpool, where a number of exciting science presentations made headlines. First up was widely-reported research from the University of Oxford, which found that unusually low levels of testosterone in the blood could be linked with a reduced risk of prostate cancer. Our press release has more.
• Next up from NCRI: Cambridge researchers have developed a new genetic test that could help predict if someone will go on to develop oesophageal cancer up to 8 years earlier than when symptoms start to show. But, as our press release explains, this work only looked at people who have Barrett’s oesophagus, and are at a higher risk of developing the disease. The Times and Telegraph covered this story.
• More on the subject of genetic tests with research suggesting new criteria are needed to decide which cancer patients should have tests for faulty BRCA genes, which increase the risk of breast and ovarian cancers. The Telegraph covered this one.
• Another genetic test developed by scientists could spare some breast cancer patients from chemotherapy, reports the Mail Online. By determining how aggressive the disease is, the test could indicate whether the tumour is likely to respond to chemotherapy or not.
• Findings from an early clinical trial presented at NCRI showed an ovarian cancer drug can make its way through the protective blood brain barrier of patients and reach certain brain tumours. As our press release explains, this barrier prevents many drugs from reaching the brain, so the results are an important first step in developing the targeted drug as a potential treatment for glioblastoma. The BBC has more on the story.
• Using artificial intelligence to crunch vast amounts of data could help make radiotherapy for prostate cancer more personal, according to more research showcased at NCRI. Picked up by The Telegraph, Times and others, the technique could help reduce side effects of treatment while boosting its effectiveness, if proven in further studies.
• Last up from NCRI, research from Macmillan Cancer Support and Public Health England found that thousands of people in the UK are surviving for at least two years after being diagnosed with advanced cancer. Macmillan told the BBC and the Guardian that these encouraging figures are likely down to better treatments.

For a round up of the rest of the exciting science presented at NCRI, read our blog post.

• Women who use intrauterine contraceptive devices may have a lower risk of developing cervical cancer, reports the Guardian. While the researchers behind the US study are keen to find out more about the potential link, the most effective ways to reduce the risk of cervical cancer are taking part in cervical screening and having the HPV vaccine.
• The risk that a certain type of breast cancer will return remains unchanged for at least 15 years after women stop hormone treatment, according to new research. As we reported, and as previous research has shown, the results suggest women could benefit from continued hormone therapy beyond the recommended 5 years. Side effects can be tough with these treatments though, and more research is needed to understand how breast cancer cells can lay dormant for decades. Sky News and the Daily Mail also covered this.
• Engineers in Canada have won an award for what they say could be a cheap and portable device to help diagnose melanoma by measuring differences in skin temperature, rather than relying on visual inspection. The inventors hope it could help diagnose the disease earlier, but at the moment it’s still experimental and will need more testing to prove it works. Tech Radar and the Guardian have the details.
• Headlines touting a potential bowel cancer cure over-egged the findings from new US research. The team has combined radiotherapy with immunotherapy to successfully treat a small number of mice with bowel cancer. As we told the Mail Online, there’s a way to go before we know whether this could work in people too.

And finally

• Can a cuppa help beat cancer, asks the Mail Online? The outlet reported on a company that’s selling antioxidant-rich tea, while also researching the potential anti-cancer properties of its ingredients. While foods and drinks rich in antioxidants are often marketed for their supposed health benefits, we’ve detailed on our blog before that the story isn’t so simple. If you like green tea, there’s no harm in enjoying it, but be wary of claims of its anti-cancer activities.

Justine 

from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://ift.tt/2yt6sWv

Student Biomedical Engineering Projects with Real-world Connections

November 14 is World Diabetes Day and a great time to have conversations with students about diabetes and related STEM careers.

from Science Buddies Blog http://ift.tt/2iKurcO

November 14 is World Diabetes Day and a great time to have conversations with students about diabetes and related STEM careers.

from Science Buddies Blog http://ift.tt/2iKurcO

“Toasted, roasted and grilled” or already over the hump?

Last week news stories came out that said that global human carbon emissions may have peaked, essentially implying that we could already be over the hump and on the way to solving climate change—while other news stories that same day and in that same publication noted that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations jumped by a record amount in 2016. These stories exemplify the emotional roller coaster that often comes with following climate change news. How can we reconcile the ebbs and flows between hopeful and apocalyptic climate stories?

The answer lies in considering the timeframe around a piece of climate news. For example, the seeming contradiction in the two news reports is explained by the monsterEl Niño event of 2016 that intensified droughts and consequently weakened the ability of vegetation to absorb carbon dioxide—showing that while human carbon pollution is responsible for the long-term rise in atmospheric concentrations, there is still ample short-term natural variation.

To give a second example: In a recent story, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund was quoted saying: “If we don't do anything about climate change now, in 50 years' time we will be toasted, roasted and grilled.” While that is an alarming statement, it focuses on a potential scenario in which half-a-century from now we have failed to change the course of our climate policies.

It’s important to remember, however, that with the international Paris climate accords, nearly every nation in the world agreed to begin the process to alter that worst-case course.

Another recent story noted that there’s a large gap between the Paris climate goals and the emissions cuts we’ve achieved so far. But the agreement was signed a mere two years ago, and global carbon emissions appear close to peaking. (They must peak by around 2020 to give us a realistic chance to meet the Paris targets). Moreover, it was agreed that countries must strengthen their emissions pledges during five-year reviews to meet the Paris goals, which means it’s hardly fair to pass judgment at this date. True, it’s too early yet to know if the world’s nations will indeed be able to follow through with such ambitious plans, but there are positive signs. For example, China had pledged to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030, but it appears to already be approaching that goal 10-to-15 years ahead of schedule. That’s a significant development, so it bears repeating: China may reach its carbon reduction goals 10-to-15 years ahead of schedule.

On the other hand, the climate news coming out of the United States under the Trump administration seems constantly grim. However, the United States is just one country, and even there we see some good long-term news. Despite the administration’s efforts to maximize coal burning and the associated carbon pollution, coal is rapidly being phased out of the American power grid for purely economic reasons; quite simply, wind, solar, and natural gas are cheaper options.

Ultimately, the wildly fluctuating tone in climate change news stems from the fact that we now stand at a critical point in human history. To avoid causing exceptionally damaging climate changes, we must take aggressive steps now to cut human carbon pollution, and those actions must continually accelerate in the coming decades. The future climate will depend on the path we choose now and in the foreseeable future. Today’s scientists and journalists are trying to read the tea leaves to determine which path we’re taking, which leads to a see-sawing between "there’s hope" and "we’re doomed" stories.

Click here to read the rest

from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2zyFFLt

Last week news stories came out that said that global human carbon emissions may have peaked, essentially implying that we could already be over the hump and on the way to solving climate change—while other news stories that same day and in that same publication noted that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations jumped by a record amount in 2016. These stories exemplify the emotional roller coaster that often comes with following climate change news. How can we reconcile the ebbs and flows between hopeful and apocalyptic climate stories?

The answer lies in considering the timeframe around a piece of climate news. For example, the seeming contradiction in the two news reports is explained by the monsterEl Niño event of 2016 that intensified droughts and consequently weakened the ability of vegetation to absorb carbon dioxide—showing that while human carbon pollution is responsible for the long-term rise in atmospheric concentrations, there is still ample short-term natural variation.

To give a second example: In a recent story, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund was quoted saying: “If we don't do anything about climate change now, in 50 years' time we will be toasted, roasted and grilled.” While that is an alarming statement, it focuses on a potential scenario in which half-a-century from now we have failed to change the course of our climate policies.

It’s important to remember, however, that with the international Paris climate accords, nearly every nation in the world agreed to begin the process to alter that worst-case course.

Another recent story noted that there’s a large gap between the Paris climate goals and the emissions cuts we’ve achieved so far. But the agreement was signed a mere two years ago, and global carbon emissions appear close to peaking. (They must peak by around 2020 to give us a realistic chance to meet the Paris targets). Moreover, it was agreed that countries must strengthen their emissions pledges during five-year reviews to meet the Paris goals, which means it’s hardly fair to pass judgment at this date. True, it’s too early yet to know if the world’s nations will indeed be able to follow through with such ambitious plans, but there are positive signs. For example, China had pledged to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030, but it appears to already be approaching that goal 10-to-15 years ahead of schedule. That’s a significant development, so it bears repeating: China may reach its carbon reduction goals 10-to-15 years ahead of schedule.

On the other hand, the climate news coming out of the United States under the Trump administration seems constantly grim. However, the United States is just one country, and even there we see some good long-term news. Despite the administration’s efforts to maximize coal burning and the associated carbon pollution, coal is rapidly being phased out of the American power grid for purely economic reasons; quite simply, wind, solar, and natural gas are cheaper options.

Ultimately, the wildly fluctuating tone in climate change news stems from the fact that we now stand at a critical point in human history. To avoid causing exceptionally damaging climate changes, we must take aggressive steps now to cut human carbon pollution, and those actions must continually accelerate in the coming decades. The future climate will depend on the path we choose now and in the foreseeable future. Today’s scientists and journalists are trying to read the tea leaves to determine which path we’re taking, which leads to a see-sawing between "there’s hope" and "we’re doomed" stories.

Click here to read the rest

from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2zyFFLt

Rapid CO2 cuts could allow some cool-water corals to adapt to global warming

This is a re-post from Carbon Brief by Daisy Dunne

Some of the world’s most diverse coral reefs are found in cooler parts of the tropics. These corals may be able to adapt to rising temperatures if future greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced, a new study suggests.

The modelling study simulates the effect of climate change on the survival of one population of a single coral species found off the coast of Rarotonga in the Cook Islands in the South Pacific. The researchers find that the genetic makeup of some cool-water corals might allow them to adapt to gradual increases in temperature.

However, without rapid cuts to emissions, the rate of climate change will likely outpace the ability of the corals to adapt, the study finds, resulting in the extinction of many coral populations by the end of the century.

More research will be needed to see if other cool-water corals around the world also hold the genetic code needed to adapt, another scientist tells Carbon Brief.

Fight for survival

Coral reefs make up some of the most ecologically important habitats in the world. Despite covering just 0.1% of the ocean floor, reefs help to support around 25% of marine species.

However, these diverse environments are vulnerable to climate change. This is because high sea temperatures causes coral bleaching, which is when corals expel the tiny colourful algae living in their tissues – known as zooxanthellae – leaving behind a stark white skeleton.

The algae provide the corals with energy through photosynthesis. Without them, the corals starve. Although corals can recover from a bleaching event, persistent bleaching can kill off entire reefs, leaving hundreds of thousands of marine species without a home.

But the new study, published in Science Advances, offers a glimmer of hope. It finds that this type of cool-water coral may be able to adapt to a rise in temperatures, if emissions are drastically cut in the coming decades.

For the study, the researchers concentrated their efforts on one population of a coral found in Rarotonga. The coral that lives here is called Acropora hyacinthus, which is a species considered to be “near threatened” by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

In Rarotonga, corals live in relatively cool waters, says Dr Rachael Bay, lead author of the study from California State University. She tells Carbon Brief:

“It’s about 21 degrees south latitude which is towards the southern boundary of coral growth. So that population would be a considered a fairly cool reef, but then the question becomes, would that reef be able to adapt as temperatures warm up?”

Thermal tolerance

To find out if the corals could possibly evolve to adapt to climate change, the researchers first needed to assess whether the organisms possessed the right genetic material to allow them to cope with heat stress.

The researchers collected samples from 30 coral colonies across the island and used genetic techniques to scan the animals’ genomes, looking for specific variants of genes that are known to promote thermal tolerance in corals.

They found that a small proportion of corals living in Rarotonga do possess favourable variants of genes that convey tolerance to heat. This means that it is possible that, under the right conditions, the animals may be able to adapt to warming sea temperatures.

Model simulations

For the second part of the study, the researchers used computer simulations to estimate how quickly the corals could adapt to warming temperatures under a range of emissions scenarios. These included a relatively low emissions scenario (RCP2.6), an intermediate emissions scenario (RCP4.5), a moderately high emissions scenario (RCP6.0) and a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5).

You can read more about the four “RCPs”, or “Representative Concentration Pathways”, here. At present, global emissions are tracking closest to RCP8.5, the highest of the four.

The results show that coral populations simulated under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 survive until 2100. However, under both RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, coral populations go extinct before the end of the century.

You can see this in chart B below, which shows the estimated coral population size from 2015 to 2100 under RCP2.6 (dark blue), RCP4.5 (light blue), RCP6.0 (orange) and RCP8.5 (red). The grey shows a scenario with no future warming. Chart A shows the estimated rise in the temperature of the hottest month from present until 2100 under each scenario.

A shows the estimated rise in temperature of the hottest month from present until 2100 under RCP2.6 (dark blue), RCP4.5 (light blue), RCP6.0 (orange) and RCP8.5 (red). B shows the estimated coral population size from 2015 to 2100 under each scenario. Source: Bay et al. (2017)

In the simulations under RCP2.6, the fraction of genetic variants conveying thermal tolerance steadily increases as temperatures rise. The rise suggests that heat-tolerant individuals are able to survive and reproduce, passing on their favourable genes to their offspring. So after an initial fall in coral population as temperatures rise, the simulations show the population recovering as the proportion of heat-tolerant individuals increases.

Under RCP4.5, coral populations do not initially adapt to the warming conditions, falling below 600 individuals between 2035 and 2065. At this point, only the most heat-tolerant individuals are able to survive. These individuals are able to reproduce and pass on their genes to their offspring, which led to a higher proportion of heat-tolerant corals, and a gradual recovery in the population.

But in simulations under both RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, the rate of warming is too fast for adaptation to take place. This is because heat-tolerant animals are likely to die before they have a chance to reproduce and pass on their genes to their offspring.

One location

Although the results suggest there is hope for some corals, the study only considers how climate change could affect one population at one location. Therefore, not all types of cool-water corals will be able to adapt in the same way, Bay cautions:

“While our results do specifically speak to one species in one location and that we certainly need further information on other species, people have found climate-associated genetic variation in other species, which means that they have potential to adapt. But we can’t really say without doing this kind of study how quickly that would happen.”

The research also highlights that there are important limits to adaptation, says Dr Mark Eakin, a coral specialist from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) and coordinator of NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch programme. He tells Carbon Brief:

“It’s clear that the corals are doing their part in trying to keep up with a warming ocean, but their survival requires that we all act quickly to not only stop – but also reverse – the excess CO2 we are dumping into the atmosphere. Unless we rapidly reduce global warming, corals won’t be able to adapt quickly enough to keep up.”

“More work is needed before we can generalise these results to the hundreds of coral species around the world.”

 

Bay, R. A. et al. (2017) Genomic models predict successful coral adaptation if future ocean warming rates are reduced, Science Advances http://ift.tt/2zY55PC

from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2zyFD6j

This is a re-post from Carbon Brief by Daisy Dunne

Some of the world’s most diverse coral reefs are found in cooler parts of the tropics. These corals may be able to adapt to rising temperatures if future greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced, a new study suggests.

The modelling study simulates the effect of climate change on the survival of one population of a single coral species found off the coast of Rarotonga in the Cook Islands in the South Pacific. The researchers find that the genetic makeup of some cool-water corals might allow them to adapt to gradual increases in temperature.

However, without rapid cuts to emissions, the rate of climate change will likely outpace the ability of the corals to adapt, the study finds, resulting in the extinction of many coral populations by the end of the century.

More research will be needed to see if other cool-water corals around the world also hold the genetic code needed to adapt, another scientist tells Carbon Brief.

Fight for survival

Coral reefs make up some of the most ecologically important habitats in the world. Despite covering just 0.1% of the ocean floor, reefs help to support around 25% of marine species.

However, these diverse environments are vulnerable to climate change. This is because high sea temperatures causes coral bleaching, which is when corals expel the tiny colourful algae living in their tissues – known as zooxanthellae – leaving behind a stark white skeleton.

The algae provide the corals with energy through photosynthesis. Without them, the corals starve. Although corals can recover from a bleaching event, persistent bleaching can kill off entire reefs, leaving hundreds of thousands of marine species without a home.

But the new study, published in Science Advances, offers a glimmer of hope. It finds that this type of cool-water coral may be able to adapt to a rise in temperatures, if emissions are drastically cut in the coming decades.

For the study, the researchers concentrated their efforts on one population of a coral found in Rarotonga. The coral that lives here is called Acropora hyacinthus, which is a species considered to be “near threatened” by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

In Rarotonga, corals live in relatively cool waters, says Dr Rachael Bay, lead author of the study from California State University. She tells Carbon Brief:

“It’s about 21 degrees south latitude which is towards the southern boundary of coral growth. So that population would be a considered a fairly cool reef, but then the question becomes, would that reef be able to adapt as temperatures warm up?”

Thermal tolerance

To find out if the corals could possibly evolve to adapt to climate change, the researchers first needed to assess whether the organisms possessed the right genetic material to allow them to cope with heat stress.

The researchers collected samples from 30 coral colonies across the island and used genetic techniques to scan the animals’ genomes, looking for specific variants of genes that are known to promote thermal tolerance in corals.

They found that a small proportion of corals living in Rarotonga do possess favourable variants of genes that convey tolerance to heat. This means that it is possible that, under the right conditions, the animals may be able to adapt to warming sea temperatures.

Model simulations

For the second part of the study, the researchers used computer simulations to estimate how quickly the corals could adapt to warming temperatures under a range of emissions scenarios. These included a relatively low emissions scenario (RCP2.6), an intermediate emissions scenario (RCP4.5), a moderately high emissions scenario (RCP6.0) and a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5).

You can read more about the four “RCPs”, or “Representative Concentration Pathways”, here. At present, global emissions are tracking closest to RCP8.5, the highest of the four.

The results show that coral populations simulated under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 survive until 2100. However, under both RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, coral populations go extinct before the end of the century.

You can see this in chart B below, which shows the estimated coral population size from 2015 to 2100 under RCP2.6 (dark blue), RCP4.5 (light blue), RCP6.0 (orange) and RCP8.5 (red). The grey shows a scenario with no future warming. Chart A shows the estimated rise in the temperature of the hottest month from present until 2100 under each scenario.

A shows the estimated rise in temperature of the hottest month from present until 2100 under RCP2.6 (dark blue), RCP4.5 (light blue), RCP6.0 (orange) and RCP8.5 (red). B shows the estimated coral population size from 2015 to 2100 under each scenario. Source: Bay et al. (2017)

In the simulations under RCP2.6, the fraction of genetic variants conveying thermal tolerance steadily increases as temperatures rise. The rise suggests that heat-tolerant individuals are able to survive and reproduce, passing on their favourable genes to their offspring. So after an initial fall in coral population as temperatures rise, the simulations show the population recovering as the proportion of heat-tolerant individuals increases.

Under RCP4.5, coral populations do not initially adapt to the warming conditions, falling below 600 individuals between 2035 and 2065. At this point, only the most heat-tolerant individuals are able to survive. These individuals are able to reproduce and pass on their genes to their offspring, which led to a higher proportion of heat-tolerant corals, and a gradual recovery in the population.

But in simulations under both RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, the rate of warming is too fast for adaptation to take place. This is because heat-tolerant animals are likely to die before they have a chance to reproduce and pass on their genes to their offspring.

One location

Although the results suggest there is hope for some corals, the study only considers how climate change could affect one population at one location. Therefore, not all types of cool-water corals will be able to adapt in the same way, Bay cautions:

“While our results do specifically speak to one species in one location and that we certainly need further information on other species, people have found climate-associated genetic variation in other species, which means that they have potential to adapt. But we can’t really say without doing this kind of study how quickly that would happen.”

The research also highlights that there are important limits to adaptation, says Dr Mark Eakin, a coral specialist from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) and coordinator of NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch programme. He tells Carbon Brief:

“It’s clear that the corals are doing their part in trying to keep up with a warming ocean, but their survival requires that we all act quickly to not only stop – but also reverse – the excess CO2 we are dumping into the atmosphere. Unless we rapidly reduce global warming, corals won’t be able to adapt quickly enough to keep up.”

“More work is needed before we can generalise these results to the hundreds of coral species around the world.”

 

Bay, R. A. et al. (2017) Genomic models predict successful coral adaptation if future ocean warming rates are reduced, Science Advances http://ift.tt/2zY55PC

from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2zyFD6j

What do Jellyfish teach us about climate change?

What do Jellyfish teach us about climate change?

A lot. At least that’s what I learned after reading a very recent paper out in the journal Global Climate Change. The article, “Ocean acidification alters zooplankton communities and increases top-down pressure of a cubazoan predator,” was authored by an international team of scientists – the paper looks at impacts of climate change on life in the world’s oceans.

I recall attending a horse-pulling contest as a child. The announcer at the event said something strange that stuck with me all these years. He said that two horses pulling a load at the same time are more effective than if the two horses pulled separately and their loads were added. That is, something about two horses working together made them greater than the sum of their parts. This study is a lot like those horses.

To begin, ocean acidification refers to the changing pH of ocean waters. As humans emit more greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide in particular) into the atmosphere, the chemistry of the oceans change. The effect is that the creatures living in the oceans are experiencing an environmental change that is separate from changing temperatures due to global warming. Scientists want to know how these changes will affect creatures, in particular because the biodiversity in the oceans is so very important to us as humans.

There has been some reporting on studies of calcifying organisms and their susceptibility to changing chemistry in the oceans. For instance, echinoderms, molluscs, corals, and crustaceans have been studied in laboratories and in situ. The studies show that acidification reduces development and survival. Acidification can alter the way these creatures make and maintain their shells.

But the authors of this new study point out that there are many other non-calcifying organisms that may also be impacted by acidification. Even for these creatures, acidification has been shown to have deleterious effects that result in reduced survival, reduced reproductivity, and reduced size.

So how does ocean acidification affect these non-calcifying creatures? One hypothesis is that the new chemistry of the ocean changes these creatures’ metabolism. Upsetting the metabolism means they are less efficient at using caloric resources within their bodies. 

During this study, the authors utilized a very common zooplankton called calanoids. Calanoids make up approximately 80% of the zookplanton by mass. Consequently, they are very important. The authors also identified a predator of the calanoids - the “box jellyfish”. The fancy (scientific) word for box jellyfish is “cubozoa.” The authors wanted to know how changes to water pH affected the survival of the calanoids in the presence of a predator (the cubozoan). 

After bringing both creatures together into carefully designed tanks, the authors waited and watched. In some tanks, they just changed the ocean chemistry and did not introduce the predators. In other tanks, they introduced predators but kept the ocean chemistry fixed. In a third group of tanks, they both changed chemistry and introduced the predator. And then of course, they had control tanks with no chemistry changes or predators.

What they found was really interesting. While both changes to chemistry and introduction of predators affected the populations of calanoids, the simultaneous actions of acidification and predators was greater than the individual actions. So, we see the analogy with the horses.

Why are the combined effects of these two changes more potent? The authors give clues. If, for instance, a more acidic ocean reduces the metabolic efficiency of the creatures, then they will have less energy to escape predators. In fact, these calanoid creatures are known to escape predators by making a jump or a series of jumps. Consequently, in non-altered water, only about 1% of hunting tries are successful. But, in altered water, with less energy for the calanoids, perhaps more jellyfish hunts end in a meal. 

Click here to read the rest

from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2zxbPac

What do Jellyfish teach us about climate change?

A lot. At least that’s what I learned after reading a very recent paper out in the journal Global Climate Change. The article, “Ocean acidification alters zooplankton communities and increases top-down pressure of a cubazoan predator,” was authored by an international team of scientists – the paper looks at impacts of climate change on life in the world’s oceans.

I recall attending a horse-pulling contest as a child. The announcer at the event said something strange that stuck with me all these years. He said that two horses pulling a load at the same time are more effective than if the two horses pulled separately and their loads were added. That is, something about two horses working together made them greater than the sum of their parts. This study is a lot like those horses.

To begin, ocean acidification refers to the changing pH of ocean waters. As humans emit more greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide in particular) into the atmosphere, the chemistry of the oceans change. The effect is that the creatures living in the oceans are experiencing an environmental change that is separate from changing temperatures due to global warming. Scientists want to know how these changes will affect creatures, in particular because the biodiversity in the oceans is so very important to us as humans.

There has been some reporting on studies of calcifying organisms and their susceptibility to changing chemistry in the oceans. For instance, echinoderms, molluscs, corals, and crustaceans have been studied in laboratories and in situ. The studies show that acidification reduces development and survival. Acidification can alter the way these creatures make and maintain their shells.

But the authors of this new study point out that there are many other non-calcifying organisms that may also be impacted by acidification. Even for these creatures, acidification has been shown to have deleterious effects that result in reduced survival, reduced reproductivity, and reduced size.

So how does ocean acidification affect these non-calcifying creatures? One hypothesis is that the new chemistry of the ocean changes these creatures’ metabolism. Upsetting the metabolism means they are less efficient at using caloric resources within their bodies. 

During this study, the authors utilized a very common zooplankton called calanoids. Calanoids make up approximately 80% of the zookplanton by mass. Consequently, they are very important. The authors also identified a predator of the calanoids - the “box jellyfish”. The fancy (scientific) word for box jellyfish is “cubozoa.” The authors wanted to know how changes to water pH affected the survival of the calanoids in the presence of a predator (the cubozoan). 

After bringing both creatures together into carefully designed tanks, the authors waited and watched. In some tanks, they just changed the ocean chemistry and did not introduce the predators. In other tanks, they introduced predators but kept the ocean chemistry fixed. In a third group of tanks, they both changed chemistry and introduced the predator. And then of course, they had control tanks with no chemistry changes or predators.

What they found was really interesting. While both changes to chemistry and introduction of predators affected the populations of calanoids, the simultaneous actions of acidification and predators was greater than the individual actions. So, we see the analogy with the horses.

Why are the combined effects of these two changes more potent? The authors give clues. If, for instance, a more acidic ocean reduces the metabolic efficiency of the creatures, then they will have less energy to escape predators. In fact, these calanoid creatures are known to escape predators by making a jump or a series of jumps. Consequently, in non-altered water, only about 1% of hunting tries are successful. But, in altered water, with less energy for the calanoids, perhaps more jellyfish hunts end in a meal. 

Click here to read the rest

from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2zxbPac

New research, October 30 - November 5, 2017

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The graph is from paper #80.

Climate change

1. Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin

"Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983–2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint."

2. Observed changes in temperature extremes over Asia and their attribution

"We determined that the warming trend was inconsistent with the natural variability of the climate system but agreed with climate responses to external forcing as simulated by the models. The anthropogenic and natural signals could be detected and separated from each other in the region for almost all indices, indicating the robustness of the warming signal as well as the attribution of warming to external causes."

3. Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions

"Using earth system model simulations we find that the eruption-induced cooling is significantly weaker in the future state. This is predominantly due to an increase in planetary albedo caused by increased tropospheric aerosol loading with a contribution from associated changes in cloud properties."

4. The 2015 drought in Washington State: a harbinger of things to come?

"In contrast to most historical droughts, which have been driven by precipitation deficits, our results suggest that 2015 is a useful analog of typical conditions in the Pacific Northwest by the mid-21st century."

5. Changes in intense tropical cyclone activity for the western North Pacific during the last decades derived from a regional climate model simulation

"Long-term trends (1948–2011 and 1959–2001) in both simulations show a strong increase of intense tropical cyclone activity. This contrasts with pronounced multidecadal variations found in observations."

6. Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends

7. Intensified impact of North Atlantic Oscillation in May on subsequent July Asian inland plateau precipitation since the late 1970s

8. Teleconnection between Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and European temperature: diversity and evaluation of the CMIP5 models

9. Possible effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the “upstream” climate over West Asia, North Africa, South Europe and the North Atlantic

10. Impacts of Tropical North Atlantic SST on Western North Pacific Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

11. Extreme multi-basin flooding linked with extra-tropical cyclones

12. Synoptic Characteristics of Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones along the Northeast Coast of the United States

13. Global land surface temperature from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

14. In situ temperature measurements in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere from 2 decades of IAGOS long-term routine observation

15. Characterizing transient temperature trajectories for assessing the value of achieving alternative temperature targets

16. Characteristics of a partially debris-covered glacier and its response to atmospheric warming in Mt. Tomor, Tien Shan, China

17. Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100

18. The role of land surface fluxes in Saudi-KAU AGCM: Temperature climatology over the Arabian Peninsula for the period 1981–2010

19. Dark ice dynamics of the south-west Greenland Ice Sheet

20. Developments in Simulating and Parameterizing Interactions Between the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Ice Sheet

21. Observationally constrained surface mass balance of Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica

22. On the sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice model biases to atmospheric forcing uncertainties

23. Submesoscale Sea Ice-Ocean Interactions in Marginal Ice Zones

24. Analysis of the airflow at the centre of the upper plateau on the Iberian Peninsula and its link to CO2and CH4 concentrations

25. On the relationship between Atlantic Niño variability and ocean dynamics

26. Response of viticulture-related climatic indices and zoning to historical and future climate conditions in Greece

27. Systematic Errors in Weather and Climate Models: Nature, Origins, and Way Forward

28. Discrepancies in the climatology and trends of cloud cover in global and regional climate models for the Mediterranean region

29. Origin of the warm eastern tropical Atlantic SST bias in a climate model

30. Rainfall Characteristics of Recurving Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific

31. Investigation of Changes in Extreme Temperature and Humidity over China through a Dynamical Downscaling Approach

32. Satellite-retrieved direct radiative forcing of aerosols over North-East India and adjoining areas: climatology and impact assessment

33. Attribution and mitigation of heat wave-induced urban heat storage change

34. Increase in the skewness of extratropical vertical velocities with climate warming: fully nonlinear simulations versus moist baroclinic instability

35. Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities

36. Spatial and temporal analysis of drought variability at several time scales in Syria during 1961–2012

37. Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

38. Comparison of the effect of land-sea thermal contrast on interdecadal variations in winter and summer blockings

39. Denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the 2015/2016 Arctic winter

40. What controls springtime fine dust variability in the western United States? Investigating the 2002-2015 increase in fine dust in the U.S. Southwest

Climate change impacts

41. Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean

"Contrary to previous predictions, the right whale population is projected to recover in the future as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980–2012. However, recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters. An annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability."

42. Extremely low genetic diversity across mangrove taxa reflects past sea level changes and hints at poor future responses

"We also used a recent series of flooding events in Yalong Bay, southern China, to test the robustness of mangroves to sea level changes in relation to their genetic diversity. The events resulted in the death of half of the mangrove trees in this area. Significantly, less genetically diverse mangrove species suffered much greater destruction. The dieback was accompanied by a drastic reduction in local invertebrate biodiversity. We thus predict that tropical coastal communities will be seriously endangered as the global sea level rises."

43. Observed long-term greening of alpine vegetation—a case study in the French Alps

"The timing of accelerated greening prior to 2000 coincided with a pronounced increase in the amount of snow-free growing degree-days that occurred during the 1980s and 1990s. In the case of grasslands and low-shrub habitats, we did not find evidence for a negative effect of grazing on greening trends, possibly due to the low grazing intensity typically found in the study area. We propose that the emergence of a longer and warmer growing season enabled high-elevation plant communities to produce more biomass, and also allowed for plant colonization of habitats previously characterized by long-lasting snow cover."

44. Vulnerability of Coral Reefs to Bioerosion From Land-Based Sources of Pollution

"Our results show that eutrophication of reef seawater by land-based sources of pollution can magnify the effects of OA through nutrient driven-bioerosion. These conditions could contribute to the collapse of coastal coral reef ecosystems sooner than current projections predict based only on ocean acidification."

45. Carbon dioxide and submersed macrophytes in lakes: linking functional ecology to community composition

46. Quantitative losses vs. qualitative stability of ectomycorrhizal community responses to 3 years of experimental summer drought in a beech-spruce forest

47. Assessing species climatic requirements beyond the realized niche: some lessons mainly from tree species distribution modelling

48. Latitude, temperature and habitat complexity predict predation pressure in eelgrass beds across the Northern Hemisphere

49. Glacial melt content of water use in the tropical Andes

50. Criminological Perspectives on Climate Change, Violence and Ecocide

51. Empowerment, climate change adaptation, and agricultural production: evidence from Niger

52. Predicting the outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Nanjing, China: a time-series model based on weather variability

53. Prioritizing coastal ecosystem stressors in the Northeast United States under increasing climate change

54. Might climate change the “healthy migrant” effect?

55. The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Findings from Households in Vietnam

56. The suitability of Macadamia and Juglans for cultivation in Nepal: an assessment based on spatial probability modelling using climate scenarios and in situ data

57. Impact of climate variability on coffee yield in India—with a micro-level case study using long-term coffee yield data of humid tropical Kerala

58. Warming and top predator loss drive ecosystem multifunctionality

59. Climate mediates the success of migration strategies in a marine predator

60. Simulating the recent impacts of multiple biotic disturbances on forest carbon cycling across the United States

61. Vapor-pressure deficit and extreme climatic variables limit tree growth

62. Elevated carbon dioxide and warming impact silicon and phenolic-based defences differently in native and exotic grasses

63. Future riverine inorganic nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea from Sweden: An ensemble approach to assessing climate change effects

Climate change mitigation

64. Household installation of solar panels – Motives and barriers in a 10-year perspective

"Highlights

• Comparison of motives and barriers for installing photovoltaic panels in 2008 and 2014.

• Environmental motives have been consistent, financial incentives has been added.

• investment cost remained a barrier.

• New barriers increased administrative burden and finding information.

• Installation has disappeared as a barrier."

65. Evaluating the electricity intensity of evolving water supply mixes: the case of California's water network

"Electricity intensity (kWh m⁻³) will increase in arid regions of the state due to shifts to alternative water sources such as indirect potable water reuse, desalination, and water transfers. In wetter, typically less populated, regions, reduced water demand for electricity-intensive supplies will decrease the electricity intensity of the water supply mix, though total electricity consumption will increase due to urban population growth."

66. Slowing down the retreat of the Morteratsch glacier, Switzerland, by artificially produced summer snow: a feasibility study

"It takes about 10 years before snow deposition in the higher ablation zone starts to affect the position of the glacier snout. For the case of modest warming, the difference in glacier length between the snow and no-snow experiments becomes 400 to 500 m within two decades."

67. My neighbourhood, my country or my planet? The influence of multiple place attachments and climate change concern on social acceptance of energy infrastructure

68. Bayesian versus politically motivated reasoning in human perception of climate anomalies

69. Quantitative assessment of carbon sequestration reduction induced by disturbances in temperate Eurasian steppe

70. A Climate for Art: Enhancing Scientist-Citizen Collaboration In Bangladesh

71. Why the IPCC should evolve in response to the UNFCCC bottom-up strategy adopted in Paris? An opinion from the French Association for Disaster Risk Reduction

72. Public opinion and environmental policy output: a cross-national analysis of energy policies in Europe

73. The Relationships among Actual Weather Events, Perceived Unusual Weather, Media Use, and Global Warming Belief Certainty in China

74. Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators

75. Impact of biofuels on contrail warming

Other papers

76. Spatial-temporal characteristics of aerosol loading over the Yangtze River Basin during 2001–2015

"There is no significant AOD trend over most areas of the Yangtze River Basin during 2001–2015, while strong decreasing trends are found over most of the middle and lower Yangtze Basin during 2011–2015. These decreasing trends may relate to changes in annual precipitation, wind speed, and air-pollution control policies."

77. North Atlantic influence on Holocene flooding in the southern Greater Caucasus

78. Quantifying the Release of Climate-Active Gases by Large Meteorite Impacts With a Case Study of Chicxulub

79. Is there 1.5-million-year-old ice near Dome C, Antarctica?

80. Reconstructing Northeastern United States temperatures using Atlantic white cedar tree rings

81. Designing the Climate Observing System of the Future

from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2hiVXxS

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The graph is from paper #80.

Climate change

1. Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin

"Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983–2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint."

2. Observed changes in temperature extremes over Asia and their attribution

"We determined that the warming trend was inconsistent with the natural variability of the climate system but agreed with climate responses to external forcing as simulated by the models. The anthropogenic and natural signals could be detected and separated from each other in the region for almost all indices, indicating the robustness of the warming signal as well as the attribution of warming to external causes."

3. Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions

"Using earth system model simulations we find that the eruption-induced cooling is significantly weaker in the future state. This is predominantly due to an increase in planetary albedo caused by increased tropospheric aerosol loading with a contribution from associated changes in cloud properties."

4. The 2015 drought in Washington State: a harbinger of things to come?

"In contrast to most historical droughts, which have been driven by precipitation deficits, our results suggest that 2015 is a useful analog of typical conditions in the Pacific Northwest by the mid-21st century."

5. Changes in intense tropical cyclone activity for the western North Pacific during the last decades derived from a regional climate model simulation

"Long-term trends (1948–2011 and 1959–2001) in both simulations show a strong increase of intense tropical cyclone activity. This contrasts with pronounced multidecadal variations found in observations."

6. Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends

7. Intensified impact of North Atlantic Oscillation in May on subsequent July Asian inland plateau precipitation since the late 1970s

8. Teleconnection between Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and European temperature: diversity and evaluation of the CMIP5 models

9. Possible effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the “upstream” climate over West Asia, North Africa, South Europe and the North Atlantic

10. Impacts of Tropical North Atlantic SST on Western North Pacific Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

11. Extreme multi-basin flooding linked with extra-tropical cyclones

12. Synoptic Characteristics of Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones along the Northeast Coast of the United States

13. Global land surface temperature from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers

14. In situ temperature measurements in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere from 2 decades of IAGOS long-term routine observation

15. Characterizing transient temperature trajectories for assessing the value of achieving alternative temperature targets

16. Characteristics of a partially debris-covered glacier and its response to atmospheric warming in Mt. Tomor, Tien Shan, China

17. Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100

18. The role of land surface fluxes in Saudi-KAU AGCM: Temperature climatology over the Arabian Peninsula for the period 1981–2010

19. Dark ice dynamics of the south-west Greenland Ice Sheet

20. Developments in Simulating and Parameterizing Interactions Between the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Ice Sheet

21. Observationally constrained surface mass balance of Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica

22. On the sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice model biases to atmospheric forcing uncertainties

23. Submesoscale Sea Ice-Ocean Interactions in Marginal Ice Zones

24. Analysis of the airflow at the centre of the upper plateau on the Iberian Peninsula and its link to CO2and CH4 concentrations

25. On the relationship between Atlantic Niño variability and ocean dynamics

26. Response of viticulture-related climatic indices and zoning to historical and future climate conditions in Greece

27. Systematic Errors in Weather and Climate Models: Nature, Origins, and Way Forward

28. Discrepancies in the climatology and trends of cloud cover in global and regional climate models for the Mediterranean region

29. Origin of the warm eastern tropical Atlantic SST bias in a climate model

30. Rainfall Characteristics of Recurving Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific

31. Investigation of Changes in Extreme Temperature and Humidity over China through a Dynamical Downscaling Approach

32. Satellite-retrieved direct radiative forcing of aerosols over North-East India and adjoining areas: climatology and impact assessment

33. Attribution and mitigation of heat wave-induced urban heat storage change

34. Increase in the skewness of extratropical vertical velocities with climate warming: fully nonlinear simulations versus moist baroclinic instability

35. Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities

36. Spatial and temporal analysis of drought variability at several time scales in Syria during 1961–2012

37. Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

38. Comparison of the effect of land-sea thermal contrast on interdecadal variations in winter and summer blockings

39. Denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the 2015/2016 Arctic winter

40. What controls springtime fine dust variability in the western United States? Investigating the 2002-2015 increase in fine dust in the U.S. Southwest

Climate change impacts

41. Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean

"Contrary to previous predictions, the right whale population is projected to recover in the future as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980–2012. However, recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters. An annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability."

42. Extremely low genetic diversity across mangrove taxa reflects past sea level changes and hints at poor future responses

"We also used a recent series of flooding events in Yalong Bay, southern China, to test the robustness of mangroves to sea level changes in relation to their genetic diversity. The events resulted in the death of half of the mangrove trees in this area. Significantly, less genetically diverse mangrove species suffered much greater destruction. The dieback was accompanied by a drastic reduction in local invertebrate biodiversity. We thus predict that tropical coastal communities will be seriously endangered as the global sea level rises."

43. Observed long-term greening of alpine vegetation—a case study in the French Alps

"The timing of accelerated greening prior to 2000 coincided with a pronounced increase in the amount of snow-free growing degree-days that occurred during the 1980s and 1990s. In the case of grasslands and low-shrub habitats, we did not find evidence for a negative effect of grazing on greening trends, possibly due to the low grazing intensity typically found in the study area. We propose that the emergence of a longer and warmer growing season enabled high-elevation plant communities to produce more biomass, and also allowed for plant colonization of habitats previously characterized by long-lasting snow cover."

44. Vulnerability of Coral Reefs to Bioerosion From Land-Based Sources of Pollution

"Our results show that eutrophication of reef seawater by land-based sources of pollution can magnify the effects of OA through nutrient driven-bioerosion. These conditions could contribute to the collapse of coastal coral reef ecosystems sooner than current projections predict based only on ocean acidification."

45. Carbon dioxide and submersed macrophytes in lakes: linking functional ecology to community composition

46. Quantitative losses vs. qualitative stability of ectomycorrhizal community responses to 3 years of experimental summer drought in a beech-spruce forest

47. Assessing species climatic requirements beyond the realized niche: some lessons mainly from tree species distribution modelling

48. Latitude, temperature and habitat complexity predict predation pressure in eelgrass beds across the Northern Hemisphere

49. Glacial melt content of water use in the tropical Andes

50. Criminological Perspectives on Climate Change, Violence and Ecocide

51. Empowerment, climate change adaptation, and agricultural production: evidence from Niger

52. Predicting the outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Nanjing, China: a time-series model based on weather variability

53. Prioritizing coastal ecosystem stressors in the Northeast United States under increasing climate change

54. Might climate change the “healthy migrant” effect?

55. The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Findings from Households in Vietnam

56. The suitability of Macadamia and Juglans for cultivation in Nepal: an assessment based on spatial probability modelling using climate scenarios and in situ data

57. Impact of climate variability on coffee yield in India—with a micro-level case study using long-term coffee yield data of humid tropical Kerala

58. Warming and top predator loss drive ecosystem multifunctionality

59. Climate mediates the success of migration strategies in a marine predator

60. Simulating the recent impacts of multiple biotic disturbances on forest carbon cycling across the United States

61. Vapor-pressure deficit and extreme climatic variables limit tree growth

62. Elevated carbon dioxide and warming impact silicon and phenolic-based defences differently in native and exotic grasses

63. Future riverine inorganic nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea from Sweden: An ensemble approach to assessing climate change effects

Climate change mitigation

64. Household installation of solar panels – Motives and barriers in a 10-year perspective

"Highlights

• Comparison of motives and barriers for installing photovoltaic panels in 2008 and 2014.

• Environmental motives have been consistent, financial incentives has been added.

• investment cost remained a barrier.

• New barriers increased administrative burden and finding information.

• Installation has disappeared as a barrier."

65. Evaluating the electricity intensity of evolving water supply mixes: the case of California's water network

"Electricity intensity (kWh m⁻³) will increase in arid regions of the state due to shifts to alternative water sources such as indirect potable water reuse, desalination, and water transfers. In wetter, typically less populated, regions, reduced water demand for electricity-intensive supplies will decrease the electricity intensity of the water supply mix, though total electricity consumption will increase due to urban population growth."

66. Slowing down the retreat of the Morteratsch glacier, Switzerland, by artificially produced summer snow: a feasibility study

"It takes about 10 years before snow deposition in the higher ablation zone starts to affect the position of the glacier snout. For the case of modest warming, the difference in glacier length between the snow and no-snow experiments becomes 400 to 500 m within two decades."

67. My neighbourhood, my country or my planet? The influence of multiple place attachments and climate change concern on social acceptance of energy infrastructure

68. Bayesian versus politically motivated reasoning in human perception of climate anomalies

69. Quantitative assessment of carbon sequestration reduction induced by disturbances in temperate Eurasian steppe

70. A Climate for Art: Enhancing Scientist-Citizen Collaboration In Bangladesh

71. Why the IPCC should evolve in response to the UNFCCC bottom-up strategy adopted in Paris? An opinion from the French Association for Disaster Risk Reduction

72. Public opinion and environmental policy output: a cross-national analysis of energy policies in Europe

73. The Relationships among Actual Weather Events, Perceived Unusual Weather, Media Use, and Global Warming Belief Certainty in China

74. Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators

75. Impact of biofuels on contrail warming

Other papers

76. Spatial-temporal characteristics of aerosol loading over the Yangtze River Basin during 2001–2015

"There is no significant AOD trend over most areas of the Yangtze River Basin during 2001–2015, while strong decreasing trends are found over most of the middle and lower Yangtze Basin during 2011–2015. These decreasing trends may relate to changes in annual precipitation, wind speed, and air-pollution control policies."

77. North Atlantic influence on Holocene flooding in the southern Greater Caucasus

78. Quantifying the Release of Climate-Active Gases by Large Meteorite Impacts With a Case Study of Chicxulub

79. Is there 1.5-million-year-old ice near Dome C, Antarctica?

80. Reconstructing Northeastern United States temperatures using Atlantic white cedar tree rings

81. Designing the Climate Observing System of the Future

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