aads

Galapagos tortoise back from the brink

Giant tortoise on Pinzon Island, Galapagos. Image via Rory Stansbury, Island Conservation/Flickr

By James P. Gibbs, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry

The Galapagos Islands are world-famous as a laboratory of biological evolution. Some 30 percent of the plants, 80 percent of the land birds and 97 percent of the reptiles on this remote archipelago are found nowhere else on Earth. Perhaps the most striking example is the islands’ iconic giant tortoises, which often live to ages over 100 years in the wild. Multiple species of these mega-herbivores have evolved in response to conditions on the island or volcano where each lives, generating wide variation in shell shape and size. The Conversation

Over the past 200 years, hunting and invasive species reduced giant tortoise populations by an estimated 90 percent, destroying several species and pushing others to the brink of extinction, although a few populations on remote volcanoes remained abundant.

Remains of tortoises killed by hunters, Galapagos Islands, 1903. Image via R.H. Beck/Library of Congress

Now however, the tortoise dynasty is on the road to recovery, thanks to work by the Galapagos National Park Directorate, with critical support from nonprofits like the Galapagos Conservancy and advice from an international team of conservation scientists.

Together we are advancing a broad multiyear program called the Giant Tortoise Restoration Initiative, overseen by Washington Tapia, Linda Cayot and myself with major collaboration from Gisella Caccone at Yale University. Using many novel strategies, the initiative helps guide the Galapagos National Park Directorate to restore viable, self-sustaining tortoise populations and recover the ecosystems in which these animals evolved.

Back from the brink

As many as 300,000 giant tortoises once roamed the Galapagos Islands. Whalers and colonists started collecting them for food in the 19th century. Early settlers introduced rats, pigs and goats, which preyed upon tortoises or destroyed their habitat. As a result, it was widely concluded by the 1940s that giant tortoises were headed for oblivion.

After the Galapagos National Park was established in 1959, park guards halted killing of tortoises for food. Next, biologists at what was then known as the Charles Darwin Research Station did the first inventory of surviving tortoises. They also initiated a program to help recover imperiled species.

One species, the Pinzon Island tortoise, had not produced any juveniles for over 100 years because nonnative black rats were preying on hatchlings. In 1965 park guards started methodically removing eggs from tortoise nests, rearing the offspring to “rat-proof” size in captivity and releasing them back into the wild. More than 5,000 young tortoises have been repatriated back to Pinzon Island. Many are now adults. This program is one of the most successful examples of “head-starting” to save a species in conservation history.

The Española tortoise, which once numbered in the thousands, had been reduced to just 15 individuals by 1960. Park guards brought those 15 into captivity, where they have produced more than 2,000 captive-raised offspring now released onto their home island. All 15 survivors are still alive and reproducing today, and the wild population numbers more than 1,000. This is one of the greatest and least-known conservation success stories of any species.

Eliminating nonnative threats

Over the past 150 years, goats brought to the islands by early settlers overgrazed many of the islands, turning them into dustbowls and destroying forage, shade and water sources that tortoises relied on. In 1997 the Galapagos Conservancy launched Project Isabela, the largest ecosystem restoration initiative ever carried out in a protected area.

Over a decade park wardens, working closely with Island Conservation, used high-tech hunting tactics, helicopter support and Judas goats – animals fitted with radio collars that led hunters to the last remaining herds – to eliminate over 140,000 feral goats from virtually all of the archipelago.

Building on lessons learned from Project Isabela, the Galapagos National Park Directorate and Island Conservation then eradicated nonnative rats from Pinzón Island in 2012, enabling tortoise hatchlings to survive and complete their life cycle again for the first time in a century.

One of the first hatchlings on Pinzon Island in over a century. Image via James Gibbs

Restoring ecosystems with tortoises

The argument for tortoise conservation has been strengthened by reconceptualizing giant tortoises as agents whose actions shape the ecosystems around them. Tortoises eat and disperse many plants as they move around – and they are more mobile than many people realize. By attaching GPS tags to tortoises, scientists with the Galapagos Tortoise Movement Ecology Programme have learned that tortoises migrate tens of kilometers up and down volcanoes seasonally to get to new plant growth and nesting sites.

As they move, tortoises crush vegetation. They may be an important factor in maintaining the native savannah-like ecosystems on the islands where they live. When tortoises are scarce, we think that shrubs sprout up, crowding out many herbaceous plants and other animal species.

We need data to support this theory, so we have constructed an elaborate system of “exclosures” on two islands that wall tortoises out of certain areas. By comparing vegetation in the tortoise-free zones to conditions outside of the exclosures, we will see just how tortoises shape their ecosystems.

Building a tortoise exclosure. Image via James Gibbs

Restoring ecosystems on islands where tortoises have gone extinct requires more drastic steps. Santa Fe Island lost its endemic giant tortoises more than 150 years ago, and its ecosystems are still recovering from a scourge of goats. Park managers are attempting to restore the island using an “analog,” nonnative species – the genetically and morphologically similar Española tortoise.

In 2015 the Galapagos National Park Directorate released 201 juvenile Española tortoises in the interior of Santa Fe Island. They all appear to have survived their first year there, and 200 more are scheduled for release in 2017. Española tortoises are still endangered, so this strategy has the extra value of creating a reserve population of them on Santa Fe island.

On Pinta Island, which also has lost its endemic tortoise, park managers have released sterilized nonnative tortoises to serve as “vegetation management tools” that can prepare the habitat for future introductions of reproductive tortoises. These initiatives are some of the first-ever to use analog species to jump-start plant community restoration.

Park rangers releasing juvenile giant tortoises from the Espanola Island lineage to Santa Fe Island in June 2015. Image via Galapagos National Park Directorate

Reviving lost species

The endemic tortoises of Floreana Island are also considered to be extinct. But geneticists recently discovered that in a remote location on Isabela Island, tortoises evidently had been translocated from around the archipelago during the whaling era. In a major expedition in 2015, park rangers and collaborating scientists removed 32 tortoises from Isabela Island with shell features similar to the extinct Pinta and Floreana species.

Now the geneticists are exploring the degree of interbreeding of these 32 distinct tortoises between the extinct species and native Wolf Volcano tortoises. We are hoping to find a few “pure” survivors from the extinct species. Careful and selective breeding of tortoises in captivity with significant levels of either Pinta or Floreana ancestry will follow to produce a new generation of young tortoises to be released back on Pinta and Floreana Islands and help their ecosystems recover.

Removing a Wolf Volcano tortoise from Isabela Island for the Floreana tortoise restoration initiative. Image via Jane Braxton Little

Converting tragedy to inspiration

Lonesome George, the last known living Pinta Island giant tortoise, died in 2012 after decades in captivity. His frozen remains were transferred to the United States and taxidermied by world-class experts. In mid-February Lonesome George will be returned to Galapagos once again and ensconced as the focus of a newly renovated park visitation center. Some 150,000 visitors each year will learn the complex but ultimately encouraging story of giant tortoise conservation, and a beloved family member will rest back at home again.

James P. Gibbs, Professor of Vertebrate Conservation Biology and Director of the Roosevelt Wild Life Station, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2mGYdzK

Giant tortoise on Pinzon Island, Galapagos. Image via Rory Stansbury, Island Conservation/Flickr

By James P. Gibbs, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry

The Galapagos Islands are world-famous as a laboratory of biological evolution. Some 30 percent of the plants, 80 percent of the land birds and 97 percent of the reptiles on this remote archipelago are found nowhere else on Earth. Perhaps the most striking example is the islands’ iconic giant tortoises, which often live to ages over 100 years in the wild. Multiple species of these mega-herbivores have evolved in response to conditions on the island or volcano where each lives, generating wide variation in shell shape and size. The Conversation

Over the past 200 years, hunting and invasive species reduced giant tortoise populations by an estimated 90 percent, destroying several species and pushing others to the brink of extinction, although a few populations on remote volcanoes remained abundant.

Remains of tortoises killed by hunters, Galapagos Islands, 1903. Image via R.H. Beck/Library of Congress

Now however, the tortoise dynasty is on the road to recovery, thanks to work by the Galapagos National Park Directorate, with critical support from nonprofits like the Galapagos Conservancy and advice from an international team of conservation scientists.

Together we are advancing a broad multiyear program called the Giant Tortoise Restoration Initiative, overseen by Washington Tapia, Linda Cayot and myself with major collaboration from Gisella Caccone at Yale University. Using many novel strategies, the initiative helps guide the Galapagos National Park Directorate to restore viable, self-sustaining tortoise populations and recover the ecosystems in which these animals evolved.

Back from the brink

As many as 300,000 giant tortoises once roamed the Galapagos Islands. Whalers and colonists started collecting them for food in the 19th century. Early settlers introduced rats, pigs and goats, which preyed upon tortoises or destroyed their habitat. As a result, it was widely concluded by the 1940s that giant tortoises were headed for oblivion.

After the Galapagos National Park was established in 1959, park guards halted killing of tortoises for food. Next, biologists at what was then known as the Charles Darwin Research Station did the first inventory of surviving tortoises. They also initiated a program to help recover imperiled species.

One species, the Pinzon Island tortoise, had not produced any juveniles for over 100 years because nonnative black rats were preying on hatchlings. In 1965 park guards started methodically removing eggs from tortoise nests, rearing the offspring to “rat-proof” size in captivity and releasing them back into the wild. More than 5,000 young tortoises have been repatriated back to Pinzon Island. Many are now adults. This program is one of the most successful examples of “head-starting” to save a species in conservation history.

The Española tortoise, which once numbered in the thousands, had been reduced to just 15 individuals by 1960. Park guards brought those 15 into captivity, where they have produced more than 2,000 captive-raised offspring now released onto their home island. All 15 survivors are still alive and reproducing today, and the wild population numbers more than 1,000. This is one of the greatest and least-known conservation success stories of any species.

Eliminating nonnative threats

Over the past 150 years, goats brought to the islands by early settlers overgrazed many of the islands, turning them into dustbowls and destroying forage, shade and water sources that tortoises relied on. In 1997 the Galapagos Conservancy launched Project Isabela, the largest ecosystem restoration initiative ever carried out in a protected area.

Over a decade park wardens, working closely with Island Conservation, used high-tech hunting tactics, helicopter support and Judas goats – animals fitted with radio collars that led hunters to the last remaining herds – to eliminate over 140,000 feral goats from virtually all of the archipelago.

Building on lessons learned from Project Isabela, the Galapagos National Park Directorate and Island Conservation then eradicated nonnative rats from Pinzón Island in 2012, enabling tortoise hatchlings to survive and complete their life cycle again for the first time in a century.

One of the first hatchlings on Pinzon Island in over a century. Image via James Gibbs

Restoring ecosystems with tortoises

The argument for tortoise conservation has been strengthened by reconceptualizing giant tortoises as agents whose actions shape the ecosystems around them. Tortoises eat and disperse many plants as they move around – and they are more mobile than many people realize. By attaching GPS tags to tortoises, scientists with the Galapagos Tortoise Movement Ecology Programme have learned that tortoises migrate tens of kilometers up and down volcanoes seasonally to get to new plant growth and nesting sites.

As they move, tortoises crush vegetation. They may be an important factor in maintaining the native savannah-like ecosystems on the islands where they live. When tortoises are scarce, we think that shrubs sprout up, crowding out many herbaceous plants and other animal species.

We need data to support this theory, so we have constructed an elaborate system of “exclosures” on two islands that wall tortoises out of certain areas. By comparing vegetation in the tortoise-free zones to conditions outside of the exclosures, we will see just how tortoises shape their ecosystems.

Building a tortoise exclosure. Image via James Gibbs

Restoring ecosystems on islands where tortoises have gone extinct requires more drastic steps. Santa Fe Island lost its endemic giant tortoises more than 150 years ago, and its ecosystems are still recovering from a scourge of goats. Park managers are attempting to restore the island using an “analog,” nonnative species – the genetically and morphologically similar Española tortoise.

In 2015 the Galapagos National Park Directorate released 201 juvenile Española tortoises in the interior of Santa Fe Island. They all appear to have survived their first year there, and 200 more are scheduled for release in 2017. Española tortoises are still endangered, so this strategy has the extra value of creating a reserve population of them on Santa Fe island.

On Pinta Island, which also has lost its endemic tortoise, park managers have released sterilized nonnative tortoises to serve as “vegetation management tools” that can prepare the habitat for future introductions of reproductive tortoises. These initiatives are some of the first-ever to use analog species to jump-start plant community restoration.

Park rangers releasing juvenile giant tortoises from the Espanola Island lineage to Santa Fe Island in June 2015. Image via Galapagos National Park Directorate

Reviving lost species

The endemic tortoises of Floreana Island are also considered to be extinct. But geneticists recently discovered that in a remote location on Isabela Island, tortoises evidently had been translocated from around the archipelago during the whaling era. In a major expedition in 2015, park rangers and collaborating scientists removed 32 tortoises from Isabela Island with shell features similar to the extinct Pinta and Floreana species.

Now the geneticists are exploring the degree of interbreeding of these 32 distinct tortoises between the extinct species and native Wolf Volcano tortoises. We are hoping to find a few “pure” survivors from the extinct species. Careful and selective breeding of tortoises in captivity with significant levels of either Pinta or Floreana ancestry will follow to produce a new generation of young tortoises to be released back on Pinta and Floreana Islands and help their ecosystems recover.

Removing a Wolf Volcano tortoise from Isabela Island for the Floreana tortoise restoration initiative. Image via Jane Braxton Little

Converting tragedy to inspiration

Lonesome George, the last known living Pinta Island giant tortoise, died in 2012 after decades in captivity. His frozen remains were transferred to the United States and taxidermied by world-class experts. In mid-February Lonesome George will be returned to Galapagos once again and ensconced as the focus of a newly renovated park visitation center. Some 150,000 visitors each year will learn the complex but ultimately encouraging story of giant tortoise conservation, and a beloved family member will rest back at home again.

James P. Gibbs, Professor of Vertebrate Conservation Biology and Director of the Roosevelt Wild Life Station, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2mGYdzK

Just who are these 300 'scientists' telling Trump to burn the climate?

If you read my articles regularly, you may have noticed multiple times I have stated that the scientific argument is over; there are no longer any reputable scientists that deny the overwhelming human influence in our climate. An open letter published last week by the anti-environmentalists proves my point. 

If you read the headlines, it might have seemed impressive: “300 Scientists Tell Trump to Leave UN Climate Agreement.” Wow, 300 scientists. That’s a lot right? Actually, it’s a pitiful list.

First of all, hardly anyone on the list was a climate scientist; many were not even natural scientists. It is almost as though anyone with a college degree (and there are about 21 million enrolled in higher education programs just in the USA) was qualified to sign that letter.

Okay but what about the signers of the letter? Surely they are experts in the field? Not so much. It was very difficult to find the list of signers online however I was able to acquire it with some help. See for yourself - Google “300 scientists letter climate change” in the past week. You will see many stories in the press, but try finding the actual letter or the list of names. The version I obtained was dated February 23, 2017 which helps narrow your searching. In an era of Dr. Google, it is unbelievable that the letter itself was not made more available. 

Okay but let’s get to the central issue. These 300 scientists must be pretty good at climate science, right? Well let’s just go through the list, alphabetically. Here is a sampling (text copied verbatim from the version of the letter I obtained).

Example 1:

ADAM, A.I.: (Ph. D.); Retired Geologist/Palynologist/Academic/Public Servant/Industry Professional; publications include papers on palaeoenvironmental studies and a book, New Emperors’ Novel Clothes: Climate Change Analysed. 

A retired geologist and a public servant? I performed a google scholar search on “AI Adam” to find out what is picked up as any studies written by someone named “AI Adam.” Nothing. If you can find his book on Amazon, you will see his biography states he’s a retired geologist, got a degree from a university in the UK (discipline not specified), he worked in fossil fuel and mineral industries in Australia and other countries. Oh, and currently he has “wide interests”.

Example 2:

ALEXANDER, Ralph B.: (Ph.D., Physics, University of Oxford); Former Associate Professor, Wayne State University, Detroit, author “Global Warming False Alarm” (2012) 

Surely it gets better right? I mean this signer was an Associate Professor? Again, not much there. I was able to find this part of a biography on DeSmogBlog:

Ralph B. Alexander is a former Associate Professor of Physics at Wayne State University and former President and co-founder of Ion Surface Technology, a small high-tech materials company. He is currently the owner and president of R.B. Alexander & Associates Inc., an independent consulting firm specializing in advanced materials and surface engineering. 

No evidence of any expertise in climate science that I could find. Let’s move to Example 3:

ALLEN, D. Weston: (MB. BS.); FRACGP Australia

Whoa, what does FRACGP stand for? A quick online search revealed that FRACGP is likely Fellow of the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners. What is the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners you ask? Well if you have more patience than I do, let me know. This may be their website. Once again, no evidence whatsoever of any expertise in climate science.

Example 4:

ALLISON, Jock: (Ph.D., Animal science, Sydney University, 1970); Previously Research Director, Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries, New Zealand.

Well, someone in animal science may have studied climate change. Perhaps the effect (or lack of effect) of climate change on animals, right? Not likely. I performed an academic search using the name “J. Allison” and I found many papers in high-energy physics, certainly not the same person. So I added the word “Climate” to the search and found - you guessed it - nothing. 

Example 5:

ANDERSON, Charles R.: (Ph.D. in Physics); Anderson Materials Evaluation, Inc., President & Principal Scientist, Expert in the use of radiation to characterize materials, many publications on materials science, frequent on-line posts on the essential physics of the atmosphere and radiation.

President of a company and an online writer - not very impresive climate credentials. You can read his posts at websites like this one. The only Google Scholar hit I found using the name “CR Anderson” and the keyword “climate” wasSchool Climate for Transgender Youth: A Mixed Method Investigation of Student Experiences and School Responses. Interesting reading I assure you, but not quite what I was looking for. Probably a different “CR Anderson.”

Example 6:

ARMSTRONG, J. Scott: ( Ph.D. MIT); Professor, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. My area of expertise involves forecasting methods. I have been involved to preparing and evaluating forecasts relevant to climate change since 2007.

This last cosigner I will discuss is a professor at a business school in the United States. As I understand his expertise, it is in business forecasting. What does that have to do with climate forecasting? Not much. Perhaps there is some crossover though? I recall that JS Armstrong was an author on a polar bear forecasting paper a few years ago. How did that turn out? Not very well. It was strongly rebutted for being incorrect in this paper. The following quote from the abstract tells it all (AGS stands for Armstrong, Green and Soon (the authors of the faulty paper):

We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so… We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. … In summary, we show that the AGS audit offers no valid criticism of the USGS conclusion that global warming poses a serious threat to the future welfare of polar bears and that it only serves to distract from reasoned public-policy debate.

There many are other examples that list no degree, affiliation, or expertise, such as:

BEE, Roger: ();

BEETHAM, Barry: ();

I guess having a first and last name are sufficient to be included in this list of eminent scientists. Sadly, the list also includes William Happer, who is under consideration for the position of President Trump’s science advisor, and also a couple of fellows we know to be quite nutty.

Finally, how about the person who appeared to orchestrate this letter, Richard Lindzen? Well, he may be best known for taking contrarian views on climate change that are not substantiated by the research, and being wrong on all of them. In fact, he has put forward multiple studies that were shown to be incorrect or questionable by his colleagues in the field. 

A summary that I coauthored of his work is available here with links to all of the relevant studies so people can read for themselves. In fact, one of his studies was rebutted by three separate papers within a year of publication. This is astonishing - most papers are never rebutted. In fact, I would venture that most scientists never have a paper rebutted in their entire career.

What is the takeaway message?

Click here to read the rest



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2l80TtM

If you read my articles regularly, you may have noticed multiple times I have stated that the scientific argument is over; there are no longer any reputable scientists that deny the overwhelming human influence in our climate. An open letter published last week by the anti-environmentalists proves my point. 

If you read the headlines, it might have seemed impressive: “300 Scientists Tell Trump to Leave UN Climate Agreement.” Wow, 300 scientists. That’s a lot right? Actually, it’s a pitiful list.

First of all, hardly anyone on the list was a climate scientist; many were not even natural scientists. It is almost as though anyone with a college degree (and there are about 21 million enrolled in higher education programs just in the USA) was qualified to sign that letter.

Okay but what about the signers of the letter? Surely they are experts in the field? Not so much. It was very difficult to find the list of signers online however I was able to acquire it with some help. See for yourself - Google “300 scientists letter climate change” in the past week. You will see many stories in the press, but try finding the actual letter or the list of names. The version I obtained was dated February 23, 2017 which helps narrow your searching. In an era of Dr. Google, it is unbelievable that the letter itself was not made more available. 

Okay but let’s get to the central issue. These 300 scientists must be pretty good at climate science, right? Well let’s just go through the list, alphabetically. Here is a sampling (text copied verbatim from the version of the letter I obtained).

Example 1:

ADAM, A.I.: (Ph. D.); Retired Geologist/Palynologist/Academic/Public Servant/Industry Professional; publications include papers on palaeoenvironmental studies and a book, New Emperors’ Novel Clothes: Climate Change Analysed. 

A retired geologist and a public servant? I performed a google scholar search on “AI Adam” to find out what is picked up as any studies written by someone named “AI Adam.” Nothing. If you can find his book on Amazon, you will see his biography states he’s a retired geologist, got a degree from a university in the UK (discipline not specified), he worked in fossil fuel and mineral industries in Australia and other countries. Oh, and currently he has “wide interests”.

Example 2:

ALEXANDER, Ralph B.: (Ph.D., Physics, University of Oxford); Former Associate Professor, Wayne State University, Detroit, author “Global Warming False Alarm” (2012) 

Surely it gets better right? I mean this signer was an Associate Professor? Again, not much there. I was able to find this part of a biography on DeSmogBlog:

Ralph B. Alexander is a former Associate Professor of Physics at Wayne State University and former President and co-founder of Ion Surface Technology, a small high-tech materials company. He is currently the owner and president of R.B. Alexander & Associates Inc., an independent consulting firm specializing in advanced materials and surface engineering. 

No evidence of any expertise in climate science that I could find. Let’s move to Example 3:

ALLEN, D. Weston: (MB. BS.); FRACGP Australia

Whoa, what does FRACGP stand for? A quick online search revealed that FRACGP is likely Fellow of the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners. What is the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners you ask? Well if you have more patience than I do, let me know. This may be their website. Once again, no evidence whatsoever of any expertise in climate science.

Example 4:

ALLISON, Jock: (Ph.D., Animal science, Sydney University, 1970); Previously Research Director, Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries, New Zealand.

Well, someone in animal science may have studied climate change. Perhaps the effect (or lack of effect) of climate change on animals, right? Not likely. I performed an academic search using the name “J. Allison” and I found many papers in high-energy physics, certainly not the same person. So I added the word “Climate” to the search and found - you guessed it - nothing. 

Example 5:

ANDERSON, Charles R.: (Ph.D. in Physics); Anderson Materials Evaluation, Inc., President & Principal Scientist, Expert in the use of radiation to characterize materials, many publications on materials science, frequent on-line posts on the essential physics of the atmosphere and radiation.

President of a company and an online writer - not very impresive climate credentials. You can read his posts at websites like this one. The only Google Scholar hit I found using the name “CR Anderson” and the keyword “climate” wasSchool Climate for Transgender Youth: A Mixed Method Investigation of Student Experiences and School Responses. Interesting reading I assure you, but not quite what I was looking for. Probably a different “CR Anderson.”

Example 6:

ARMSTRONG, J. Scott: ( Ph.D. MIT); Professor, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. My area of expertise involves forecasting methods. I have been involved to preparing and evaluating forecasts relevant to climate change since 2007.

This last cosigner I will discuss is a professor at a business school in the United States. As I understand his expertise, it is in business forecasting. What does that have to do with climate forecasting? Not much. Perhaps there is some crossover though? I recall that JS Armstrong was an author on a polar bear forecasting paper a few years ago. How did that turn out? Not very well. It was strongly rebutted for being incorrect in this paper. The following quote from the abstract tells it all (AGS stands for Armstrong, Green and Soon (the authors of the faulty paper):

We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so… We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. … In summary, we show that the AGS audit offers no valid criticism of the USGS conclusion that global warming poses a serious threat to the future welfare of polar bears and that it only serves to distract from reasoned public-policy debate.

There many are other examples that list no degree, affiliation, or expertise, such as:

BEE, Roger: ();

BEETHAM, Barry: ();

I guess having a first and last name are sufficient to be included in this list of eminent scientists. Sadly, the list also includes William Happer, who is under consideration for the position of President Trump’s science advisor, and also a couple of fellows we know to be quite nutty.

Finally, how about the person who appeared to orchestrate this letter, Richard Lindzen? Well, he may be best known for taking contrarian views on climate change that are not substantiated by the research, and being wrong on all of them. In fact, he has put forward multiple studies that were shown to be incorrect or questionable by his colleagues in the field. 

A summary that I coauthored of his work is available here with links to all of the relevant studies so people can read for themselves. In fact, one of his studies was rebutted by three separate papers within a year of publication. This is astonishing - most papers are never rebutted. In fact, I would venture that most scientists never have a paper rebutted in their entire career.

What is the takeaway message?

Click here to read the rest



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2l80TtM

Dear Mr President: another message from across the Pond

The Carbon Cycle in 49 tweets

There seem to be a fair number of communications being sent to the White House right now. On Thursday 23rd February, The Hill reported that "Climate sceptics ask Trump to withdraw from UN agency". The "agency" in question being the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change and the name behind the letter being Richard Lindzen and some 300 of his buddies. This bunch of 300 signatories has something of a resemblance to those behind a January 2016 letter to NOAA, again with Lindzen involvement. Both lists read like a who's who of the usual suspects. Some sections could almost have been copied and pasted from the DeSmogBlog database of climate misinformers.

That aside, Lindzen and friends have missed an important point in this instance. Trump's preferred style of written communication is The Tweet. A series of long paragraphs is unlikely to garner the desired attention. Sometimes, it is necessary to communicate to people in their own language.

So let's try just that, in explaining to President Trump the importance of and the hazards associated with Earth's Carbon Cycle. Unlike Twitter though, this post reads in a user-friendly way, from top to bottom. So, without as much as a smidgen of FAKE NEWS, here we go:


@RealDonaldTrump 1/49

We want to tell you all about the Carbon Cycle. It helps make this planet great, so long as you don't MESS WITH IT.


@RealDonaldTrump 2/49

The Carbon Cycle is in two parts. One fast & one slow. They are different things because of the stuff they involve.


@RealDonaldTrump 3/49

The Fast Carbon Cycle involves plants. They feed on CO2 & make sugar. They keep it in their roots, stems and stuff.


@RealDonaldTrump 4/49

In summer they use the sugar for energy. They grow so much. In winter they lie dormant. So lazy. Should be fired.


@RealDonaldTrump 5/49

Lazy winter plants don't feed much so atmospheric CO2 goes up a bit. When they feed in summer, CO2 goes down a bit.


@RealDonaldTrump 6/49

Feeding pattern makes the seasonal wobble on CO2 graphs. Up & down, up & down, year in year out. So like a heartbeat.


Monthly CO2 from NOAA


@RealDonaldTrump 7/49

Some plants get eaten. Some burn in fires. When plants die they rot. Either way, carbon goes back to the atmosphere.


@RealDonaldTrump 8/49

But new plants come up every spring, start feeding on CO2. It lets them grow. They RETAKE what their ancestors lost.


@RealDonaldTrump 9/49

So the Fast Carbon Cycle is in balance. Look after those plants & it stays that way. Now for the Slow Carbon Cycle.


@RealDonaldTrump 10/49

The Slow Carbon Cycle works over millions of years. Normally. But sometimes things happen that mess it up.


@RealDonaldTrump 11/49

How it works: CO2 comes from volcanoes. A few 100 million tons every year. That's the main SOURCE. Apart from us.


@RealDonaldTrump 12/49

Did you know, Mr President, that CO2 used to be called “carbonic acid gas”? Carbonic acid is CO2 dissolved in water.


@RealDonaldTrump 13/49

In the air, CO2 dissolves in raindrops. They bring carbonic acid down to the ground. Supply is near-constant.


@RealDonaldTrump 14/49

Carbonic acid is WEAK but it can slowly attack most rocks and minerals. It's slow but it always wins and they LOSE.


@RealDonaldTrump 15/49

Limestone is a really big loser. Carbonic acid hits it so hard we end up with caves, stalactites & stuff.


Limestone caves, Nerja, southern Spain

Limestone caves, Nerja, southern Spain. Carbonic acid did all of this! Photo: author.

@RealDonaldTrump 16/49

Carbonic acid also attacks other rocks like basalt. Basalt is full of calcium & magnesium & it's really common.


@RealDonaldTrump 17/49

Carbonic acid attacks basalt everywhere, all the time. Happening on a massive scale. Process is called “weathering”.


@RealDonaldTrump 18/49

Weathering forms solutions of calcium & magnesium. End up in rivers & then in the sea. Weak but a constant supply.


@RealDonaldTrump 19/49

In the sea, calcium recombines with carbon & oxygen to make carbonate. Happens all on its own if chemistry's right.


@RealDonaldTrump 20/49

Or you get critters living in the sea that make their own carbonate. They make all those beautiful shells.


@RealDonaldTrump 21/49

Corals make carbonate homes to live in. These form wonderful coral reefs. They depend on it.


@RealDonaldTrump 22/49

Carbonate slowly turns into limestone. New limestone is always forming. Not such a loser after all! Clever!


Limestone with fossil shells

Limestone, with critters that made their own shells from calcium carbonate, in the Jurassic Period, around 180 million years ago. Limestone is constantly forming in the world's seas. Photo: author.


@RealDonaldTrump 23/49

Leave all that limestone be & it stores that carbon. Stops it going any place else. Limestone is a carbon SINK.


@RealDonaldTrump 24/49

Trillions of tonnes of carbon are stored in limestone. But what about the other big store? The fossil fuels?


@RealDonaldTrump 25/49

I'm talking about all those dead plants. Some got buried & preserved. They are millions of years old. So ancient.


@RealDonaldTrump 26/49

These two are the Walmarts of carbon storage. Volcanoes let the stuff out. Limestone and fossil fuels LOCK IT UP.


@RealDonaldTrump 27/49

But what happens if the Slow Carbon Cycle gets messed with? That can work two ways. Geological record tells us this.


@RealDonaldTrump 28/49

If weathering goes crazy it uses too much CO2. You get global cooling. How about plants? They like CO2.


@RealDonaldTrump 29/49

Land plants only appeared a few hundred million years ago, when they evolved from the stuff that lived in water.


@RealDonaldTrump 30/49

Once they appeared, land-plants evolved fast. Then they invaded. Soon, Earth was covered in forests. So beautiful.


@RealDonaldTrump 31/49

The forests got to work on the plant-food in the air. They pulled down so much CO2. Its concentration fell and fell.


Fossilised Carboniferous ferns

CO2-munchers: fossil ferns from the Carboniferous, over 300 million years ago. During the previous 100 million years, the land became afforested. Photo: author.


@RealDonaldTrump 32/49

That carbon was taken out of the Slow Carbon Cycle & put right into the Fast Carbon Cycle, like it changed sides.


@RealDonaldTrump 33/49

What happened next? It cooled. There was an ice-age. Same happened when first green plants showed up in the water.


@RealDonaldTrump 34/49

Same happened when significant oxygen first featured in Earth's atmosphere. That  was 2.3 billion years ago.


@RealDonaldTrump 35/49

With oxygen in the air, methane came under attack. Methane is a strong greenhouse gas, but it got oxidised. It LOST.


@RealDonaldTrump 36/49

Each time these things happened there was cooling & ice-ages. So BAD. But what if you ADD more CO2 to the air?


@RealDonaldTrump 37/49

If you mess with the Slow Carbon Cycle the other way you get global warming. Some volcanoes can accomplish this.


@RealDonaldTrump 38/49

They must be really special volcanoes called Large Igneous Provinces. Not been one erupting for millions of years.


@RealDonaldTrump 39/49

Large Igneous Province eruptions are so big. Make Mt St Helens look like July 4th fireworks in a suburban back-yard.


Siberian Traps Large Igneous Province

The Siberian Traps Large Igneous Province, main suspect for the end Permian mass extinction (96% of species lost). It's just huge (scale-bar bottom left).


@RealDonaldTrump 40/49

Large Igneous Province eruptions last 1000s of years. Every century they can make 500-5,000 billion tonnes of CO2.


@RealDonaldTrump 41/49

They mess with the Slow Carbon Cycle big time. They overload it. Worse than most asteroids. They are killers.


@RealDonaldTrump 42/49

Large Igneous Provinces pollute. They wreck the climate. Caused some of the worst extinctions in Earth's history.


@RealDonaldTrump 43/49

Mr President, we're making over 3,000 billion tonnes of CO2 per century. We're acting like a Large Igneous Province.


@RealDonaldTrump 44/49

By burning oil, coal & gas at this rate, we are acting just like those special volcanoes. We really are. So sad!


@RealDonaldTrump 45/49

That's why CO2 graphs have trends going up & up & up. Last time we had an atmosphere like this was in the Pliocene.


@RealDonaldTrump 46/49

CO2 is a crazy gas. It multi-tasks. It's plant-food, a big greenhouse gas, it trashes rocks & it's an asphyxiant.


@RealDonaldTrump 47/49

The Slow Carbon Cycle should NOT be messed with. We are messing with it right now, big time. That's BIG news.


@RealDonaldTrump 48/49

Never before has a life-form messed with the Slow Carbon Cycle on purpose. Plants didn't do that. They just grow.


@RealDonaldTrump 49/49

Dear Mr President, plants don't get to make decisions. They're just dumb. But we CAN make decisions. Whaddya say?


Arctic sea ice volume 1979-2017

And finally, Mr President, I'll just leave this here. Arctic sea-ice volume, Jan 1979 to Jan 2017.

Everywhere you look, Mr President, the indicators point the same way. Now, who will you listen to?

The scientists who have worked on this stuff for nearly two centuries - or those guys who made their fortunes digging up the fossil fuels? 

Think carefully. We don't have a spare Earth if we mess this one up.

Regards from across the Pond.

Graphic: Andy Lee Robinson.



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2l84dF8

The Carbon Cycle in 49 tweets

There seem to be a fair number of communications being sent to the White House right now. On Thursday 23rd February, The Hill reported that "Climate sceptics ask Trump to withdraw from UN agency". The "agency" in question being the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change and the name behind the letter being Richard Lindzen and some 300 of his buddies. This bunch of 300 signatories has something of a resemblance to those behind a January 2016 letter to NOAA, again with Lindzen involvement. Both lists read like a who's who of the usual suspects. Some sections could almost have been copied and pasted from the DeSmogBlog database of climate misinformers.

That aside, Lindzen and friends have missed an important point in this instance. Trump's preferred style of written communication is The Tweet. A series of long paragraphs is unlikely to garner the desired attention. Sometimes, it is necessary to communicate to people in their own language.

So let's try just that, in explaining to President Trump the importance of and the hazards associated with Earth's Carbon Cycle. Unlike Twitter though, this post reads in a user-friendly way, from top to bottom. So, without as much as a smidgen of FAKE NEWS, here we go:


@RealDonaldTrump 1/49

We want to tell you all about the Carbon Cycle. It helps make this planet great, so long as you don't MESS WITH IT.


@RealDonaldTrump 2/49

The Carbon Cycle is in two parts. One fast & one slow. They are different things because of the stuff they involve.


@RealDonaldTrump 3/49

The Fast Carbon Cycle involves plants. They feed on CO2 & make sugar. They keep it in their roots, stems and stuff.


@RealDonaldTrump 4/49

In summer they use the sugar for energy. They grow so much. In winter they lie dormant. So lazy. Should be fired.


@RealDonaldTrump 5/49

Lazy winter plants don't feed much so atmospheric CO2 goes up a bit. When they feed in summer, CO2 goes down a bit.


@RealDonaldTrump 6/49

Feeding pattern makes the seasonal wobble on CO2 graphs. Up & down, up & down, year in year out. So like a heartbeat.


Monthly CO2 from NOAA


@RealDonaldTrump 7/49

Some plants get eaten. Some burn in fires. When plants die they rot. Either way, carbon goes back to the atmosphere.


@RealDonaldTrump 8/49

But new plants come up every spring, start feeding on CO2. It lets them grow. They RETAKE what their ancestors lost.


@RealDonaldTrump 9/49

So the Fast Carbon Cycle is in balance. Look after those plants & it stays that way. Now for the Slow Carbon Cycle.


@RealDonaldTrump 10/49

The Slow Carbon Cycle works over millions of years. Normally. But sometimes things happen that mess it up.


@RealDonaldTrump 11/49

How it works: CO2 comes from volcanoes. A few 100 million tons every year. That's the main SOURCE. Apart from us.


@RealDonaldTrump 12/49

Did you know, Mr President, that CO2 used to be called “carbonic acid gas”? Carbonic acid is CO2 dissolved in water.


@RealDonaldTrump 13/49

In the air, CO2 dissolves in raindrops. They bring carbonic acid down to the ground. Supply is near-constant.


@RealDonaldTrump 14/49

Carbonic acid is WEAK but it can slowly attack most rocks and minerals. It's slow but it always wins and they LOSE.


@RealDonaldTrump 15/49

Limestone is a really big loser. Carbonic acid hits it so hard we end up with caves, stalactites & stuff.


Limestone caves, Nerja, southern Spain

Limestone caves, Nerja, southern Spain. Carbonic acid did all of this! Photo: author.

@RealDonaldTrump 16/49

Carbonic acid also attacks other rocks like basalt. Basalt is full of calcium & magnesium & it's really common.


@RealDonaldTrump 17/49

Carbonic acid attacks basalt everywhere, all the time. Happening on a massive scale. Process is called “weathering”.


@RealDonaldTrump 18/49

Weathering forms solutions of calcium & magnesium. End up in rivers & then in the sea. Weak but a constant supply.


@RealDonaldTrump 19/49

In the sea, calcium recombines with carbon & oxygen to make carbonate. Happens all on its own if chemistry's right.


@RealDonaldTrump 20/49

Or you get critters living in the sea that make their own carbonate. They make all those beautiful shells.


@RealDonaldTrump 21/49

Corals make carbonate homes to live in. These form wonderful coral reefs. They depend on it.


@RealDonaldTrump 22/49

Carbonate slowly turns into limestone. New limestone is always forming. Not such a loser after all! Clever!


Limestone with fossil shells

Limestone, with critters that made their own shells from calcium carbonate, in the Jurassic Period, around 180 million years ago. Limestone is constantly forming in the world's seas. Photo: author.


@RealDonaldTrump 23/49

Leave all that limestone be & it stores that carbon. Stops it going any place else. Limestone is a carbon SINK.


@RealDonaldTrump 24/49

Trillions of tonnes of carbon are stored in limestone. But what about the other big store? The fossil fuels?


@RealDonaldTrump 25/49

I'm talking about all those dead plants. Some got buried & preserved. They are millions of years old. So ancient.


@RealDonaldTrump 26/49

These two are the Walmarts of carbon storage. Volcanoes let the stuff out. Limestone and fossil fuels LOCK IT UP.


@RealDonaldTrump 27/49

But what happens if the Slow Carbon Cycle gets messed with? That can work two ways. Geological record tells us this.


@RealDonaldTrump 28/49

If weathering goes crazy it uses too much CO2. You get global cooling. How about plants? They like CO2.


@RealDonaldTrump 29/49

Land plants only appeared a few hundred million years ago, when they evolved from the stuff that lived in water.


@RealDonaldTrump 30/49

Once they appeared, land-plants evolved fast. Then they invaded. Soon, Earth was covered in forests. So beautiful.


@RealDonaldTrump 31/49

The forests got to work on the plant-food in the air. They pulled down so much CO2. Its concentration fell and fell.


Fossilised Carboniferous ferns

CO2-munchers: fossil ferns from the Carboniferous, over 300 million years ago. During the previous 100 million years, the land became afforested. Photo: author.


@RealDonaldTrump 32/49

That carbon was taken out of the Slow Carbon Cycle & put right into the Fast Carbon Cycle, like it changed sides.


@RealDonaldTrump 33/49

What happened next? It cooled. There was an ice-age. Same happened when first green plants showed up in the water.


@RealDonaldTrump 34/49

Same happened when significant oxygen first featured in Earth's atmosphere. That  was 2.3 billion years ago.


@RealDonaldTrump 35/49

With oxygen in the air, methane came under attack. Methane is a strong greenhouse gas, but it got oxidised. It LOST.


@RealDonaldTrump 36/49

Each time these things happened there was cooling & ice-ages. So BAD. But what if you ADD more CO2 to the air?


@RealDonaldTrump 37/49

If you mess with the Slow Carbon Cycle the other way you get global warming. Some volcanoes can accomplish this.


@RealDonaldTrump 38/49

They must be really special volcanoes called Large Igneous Provinces. Not been one erupting for millions of years.


@RealDonaldTrump 39/49

Large Igneous Province eruptions are so big. Make Mt St Helens look like July 4th fireworks in a suburban back-yard.


Siberian Traps Large Igneous Province

The Siberian Traps Large Igneous Province, main suspect for the end Permian mass extinction (96% of species lost). It's just huge (scale-bar bottom left).


@RealDonaldTrump 40/49

Large Igneous Province eruptions last 1000s of years. Every century they can make 500-5,000 billion tonnes of CO2.


@RealDonaldTrump 41/49

They mess with the Slow Carbon Cycle big time. They overload it. Worse than most asteroids. They are killers.


@RealDonaldTrump 42/49

Large Igneous Provinces pollute. They wreck the climate. Caused some of the worst extinctions in Earth's history.


@RealDonaldTrump 43/49

Mr President, we're making over 3,000 billion tonnes of CO2 per century. We're acting like a Large Igneous Province.


@RealDonaldTrump 44/49

By burning oil, coal & gas at this rate, we are acting just like those special volcanoes. We really are. So sad!


@RealDonaldTrump 45/49

That's why CO2 graphs have trends going up & up & up. Last time we had an atmosphere like this was in the Pliocene.


@RealDonaldTrump 46/49

CO2 is a crazy gas. It multi-tasks. It's plant-food, a big greenhouse gas, it trashes rocks & it's an asphyxiant.


@RealDonaldTrump 47/49

The Slow Carbon Cycle should NOT be messed with. We are messing with it right now, big time. That's BIG news.


@RealDonaldTrump 48/49

Never before has a life-form messed with the Slow Carbon Cycle on purpose. Plants didn't do that. They just grow.


@RealDonaldTrump 49/49

Dear Mr President, plants don't get to make decisions. They're just dumb. But we CAN make decisions. Whaddya say?


Arctic sea ice volume 1979-2017

And finally, Mr President, I'll just leave this here. Arctic sea-ice volume, Jan 1979 to Jan 2017.

Everywhere you look, Mr President, the indicators point the same way. Now, who will you listen to?

The scientists who have worked on this stuff for nearly two centuries - or those guys who made their fortunes digging up the fossil fuels? 

Think carefully. We don't have a spare Earth if we mess this one up.

Regards from across the Pond.

Graphic: Andy Lee Robinson.



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2l84dF8

Recent Claims Invalid: Emergent Gravity Might Deliver A Universe Without Dark Matter (Synopsis) [Starts With A Bang]

“In our description of nature the purpose is not to disclose the real essence of the phenomena but only to track down, as far as possible, relations between the manifold aspects of our experience.” -Niels Bohr

When it comes to galaxies, clusters of galaxies or the largest-scales on the Universe, dark matter is absolutely required. There’s no way to explain colliding galaxy clusters, correlations between different galaxies, the filamentary structure of the Universe or the fluctuations in the Cosmic Microwave Background without it. But it isn’t just dark matter that hopes to solve these problems, and there’s a new contender in town: emergent gravity.

The dark matter halo around galaxies could be explained, in principle, by a new type of entropy that's affected by the normal, baryonic matter present in space. Image credit: ESO / L. Calçada.

The dark matter halo around galaxies could be explained, in principle, by a new type of entropy that’s affected by the normal, baryonic matter present in space. Image credit: ESO / L. Calçada.

20 years ago, Ted Jacobson proposed, after noting similarities between gravitation and thermodynamics, that gravity might be an emergent phenomenon. Erik Verlinde has run with it, producing a formalism to get dark matter and dark energy-like effects out of a Universe where a new kind of entropy exists. Recently, it’s made predictions for galactic rotation curves, and with marginal successes, may be poised to test those larger scales.

The fluctuations in the Cosmic Microwave Background, or the Big Bang's leftover glow, contain a plethora of information about what's encoded in the Universe's history. Image credit: ESA and the Planck Collaboration.

The fluctuations in the Cosmic Microwave Background, or the Big Bang’s leftover glow, contain a plethora of information about what’s encoded in the Universe’s history. Image credit: ESA and the Planck Collaboration.

But can emergent gravity really challenge dark matter for explaining the full suite of astronomical phenomena in the Universe? Sabine Hossenfelder has the story!



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2lk1rYS

“In our description of nature the purpose is not to disclose the real essence of the phenomena but only to track down, as far as possible, relations between the manifold aspects of our experience.” -Niels Bohr

When it comes to galaxies, clusters of galaxies or the largest-scales on the Universe, dark matter is absolutely required. There’s no way to explain colliding galaxy clusters, correlations between different galaxies, the filamentary structure of the Universe or the fluctuations in the Cosmic Microwave Background without it. But it isn’t just dark matter that hopes to solve these problems, and there’s a new contender in town: emergent gravity.

The dark matter halo around galaxies could be explained, in principle, by a new type of entropy that's affected by the normal, baryonic matter present in space. Image credit: ESO / L. Calçada.

The dark matter halo around galaxies could be explained, in principle, by a new type of entropy that’s affected by the normal, baryonic matter present in space. Image credit: ESO / L. Calçada.

20 years ago, Ted Jacobson proposed, after noting similarities between gravitation and thermodynamics, that gravity might be an emergent phenomenon. Erik Verlinde has run with it, producing a formalism to get dark matter and dark energy-like effects out of a Universe where a new kind of entropy exists. Recently, it’s made predictions for galactic rotation curves, and with marginal successes, may be poised to test those larger scales.

The fluctuations in the Cosmic Microwave Background, or the Big Bang's leftover glow, contain a plethora of information about what's encoded in the Universe's history. Image credit: ESA and the Planck Collaboration.

The fluctuations in the Cosmic Microwave Background, or the Big Bang’s leftover glow, contain a plethora of information about what’s encoded in the Universe’s history. Image credit: ESA and the Planck Collaboration.

But can emergent gravity really challenge dark matter for explaining the full suite of astronomical phenomena in the Universe? Sabine Hossenfelder has the story!



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2lk1rYS

Venus is a crescent now, too

If you could see Venus through a telescope now, you’d find it in a crescent phase. That’s because Venus will pass between the Earth and sun – what astronomers call “inferior conjunction” – on March 25, 2017. Thus its lighted half, or day side, is facing mostly away from us now. Shahrin Ahmad in Malaysia caught Venus as a crescent – 17.6%. 26 days to inferior conjunction – on February 28, 2017.

Patrick Prokop in Savannah, Georgia created this composite image of Venus as a crescent on February 24, 2017.

Here is a collection of Venus images from December 2016 to February 2017 showing how the size and phase of Venus has changed as it has moved closer to passing between the Earth and sun on March 25. After the March 25 inferior conjunction, Venus will emerge into the morning sky once again. Image by our friend Tom Wildoner at LeisurelyScientist.com.

Bottom line: Photos beginning in late 2016 and extending through March 2017, showing Venus telescopically, as it wanes to a thin crescent phase.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2lufDz7

If you could see Venus through a telescope now, you’d find it in a crescent phase. That’s because Venus will pass between the Earth and sun – what astronomers call “inferior conjunction” – on March 25, 2017. Thus its lighted half, or day side, is facing mostly away from us now. Shahrin Ahmad in Malaysia caught Venus as a crescent – 17.6%. 26 days to inferior conjunction – on February 28, 2017.

Patrick Prokop in Savannah, Georgia created this composite image of Venus as a crescent on February 24, 2017.

Here is a collection of Venus images from December 2016 to February 2017 showing how the size and phase of Venus has changed as it has moved closer to passing between the Earth and sun on March 25. After the March 25 inferior conjunction, Venus will emerge into the morning sky once again. Image by our friend Tom Wildoner at LeisurelyScientist.com.

Bottom line: Photos beginning in late 2016 and extending through March 2017, showing Venus telescopically, as it wanes to a thin crescent phase.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2lufDz7

When is the next leap year?

Earthly calendars have to work hard to stay in synch with the natural rhythms of Earth's orbit around the sun.

Earthly calendars have to work hard to stay in synch with the natural rhythms of Earth’s orbit around the sun.

The last leap year was 2016, and the next one is 2020! Leap days are extra days added to the calendar to help synchronize it with Earth’s orbit around the sun and the actual passing of the seasons. Why do we need them? Blame Earth’s orbit around the sun, which takes approximately 365.25 days. It’s that .25 that creates the need for a leap year every four years.

During non-leap years aka common years – like 2017 – the calendar doesn’t take into account the extra quarter of a day actually required by Earth to complete a single orbit around the sun. In essence, the calendar year, which is a human artifact, is faster than the actual solar year, or year as defined by our planet’s motion through space.

Over time and without correction, the calendar year would drift away from the solar year and the drift would add up quickly. For example, without correction the calendar year would be off by about 1 day after 4 years. It’d be off by about 25 days after 100 years. You can see that, if even more time were to pass without the leap year as a calendar correction, eventually February would be a summer month in the Northern Hemisphere.

During leap years, a leap day is added to the calendar to slow down and synchronize the calendar year with the seasons. Leap days were first added to the Julian Calendar in 46 B.C. by Julius Cesar at the advice of Sosigenes, an Alexandrian astronomer.

Celebrating the leap year? Take a moment to thank Christopher Clavius (1538 - 1612). This German mathematician and astronomer figured out how and where to place them in the Gregorian calendar. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

In 1582, Pope Gregory XIII revised the Julian calendar by creating the Gregorian calendar with the assistance of Christopher Clavius, a German mathematician and astronomer. The Gregorian calendar further stated that leap days should not be added in years ending in “00” unless that year is also divisible by 400. This additional correction was added to stabilize the calendar over a period of thousands of years and was necessary because solar years are actually slightly less than 365.25 days. In fact, a solar year occurs over a period of 365.2422 days.

Hence, according to the rules set forth in the Gregorian calendar leap years have occurred or will occur during the following years:

1600 1604 1608 1612 1616 1620 1624 1628 1632 1636 1640 1644 1648 1652 1656 1660 1664 1668 1672 1676 1680 1684 1688 1692 1696 1704 1708 1712 1716 1720 1724 1728 1732 1736 1740 1744 1748 1752 1756 1760 1764 1768 1772 1776 1780 1784 1788 1792 1796 1804 1808 1812 1816 1820 1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064 2068 2072 2076 2080 2084 2088 2092 2096 2104 2108 2112 2116 2120 2124 2128 2132 2136 2140 2144 2148 2152.

Notice that 2000 was a leap year because it is divisible 400, but that 1900 was not a leap year.

Since 1582, the Gregorian calendar has been gradually adopted as a ‘civil’ international standard for many countries around the world.

Bottom line: An extra day added to the calendar every four years at leap year helps synchronize the calendar year with Earth’s orbit around the sun. The next leap day will be February 29, 2020.

A fixed-date calendar and no time zones, researchers say

Should the leap second be abolished?



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1Df6OwH
Earthly calendars have to work hard to stay in synch with the natural rhythms of Earth's orbit around the sun.

Earthly calendars have to work hard to stay in synch with the natural rhythms of Earth’s orbit around the sun.

The last leap year was 2016, and the next one is 2020! Leap days are extra days added to the calendar to help synchronize it with Earth’s orbit around the sun and the actual passing of the seasons. Why do we need them? Blame Earth’s orbit around the sun, which takes approximately 365.25 days. It’s that .25 that creates the need for a leap year every four years.

During non-leap years aka common years – like 2017 – the calendar doesn’t take into account the extra quarter of a day actually required by Earth to complete a single orbit around the sun. In essence, the calendar year, which is a human artifact, is faster than the actual solar year, or year as defined by our planet’s motion through space.

Over time and without correction, the calendar year would drift away from the solar year and the drift would add up quickly. For example, without correction the calendar year would be off by about 1 day after 4 years. It’d be off by about 25 days after 100 years. You can see that, if even more time were to pass without the leap year as a calendar correction, eventually February would be a summer month in the Northern Hemisphere.

During leap years, a leap day is added to the calendar to slow down and synchronize the calendar year with the seasons. Leap days were first added to the Julian Calendar in 46 B.C. by Julius Cesar at the advice of Sosigenes, an Alexandrian astronomer.

Celebrating the leap year? Take a moment to thank Christopher Clavius (1538 - 1612). This German mathematician and astronomer figured out how and where to place them in the Gregorian calendar. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

In 1582, Pope Gregory XIII revised the Julian calendar by creating the Gregorian calendar with the assistance of Christopher Clavius, a German mathematician and astronomer. The Gregorian calendar further stated that leap days should not be added in years ending in “00” unless that year is also divisible by 400. This additional correction was added to stabilize the calendar over a period of thousands of years and was necessary because solar years are actually slightly less than 365.25 days. In fact, a solar year occurs over a period of 365.2422 days.

Hence, according to the rules set forth in the Gregorian calendar leap years have occurred or will occur during the following years:

1600 1604 1608 1612 1616 1620 1624 1628 1632 1636 1640 1644 1648 1652 1656 1660 1664 1668 1672 1676 1680 1684 1688 1692 1696 1704 1708 1712 1716 1720 1724 1728 1732 1736 1740 1744 1748 1752 1756 1760 1764 1768 1772 1776 1780 1784 1788 1792 1796 1804 1808 1812 1816 1820 1824 1828 1832 1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064 2068 2072 2076 2080 2084 2088 2092 2096 2104 2108 2112 2116 2120 2124 2128 2132 2136 2140 2144 2148 2152.

Notice that 2000 was a leap year because it is divisible 400, but that 1900 was not a leap year.

Since 1582, the Gregorian calendar has been gradually adopted as a ‘civil’ international standard for many countries around the world.

Bottom line: An extra day added to the calendar every four years at leap year helps synchronize the calendar year with Earth’s orbit around the sun. The next leap day will be February 29, 2020.

A fixed-date calendar and no time zones, researchers say

Should the leap second be abolished?



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1Df6OwH

Watch for young moon and Venus

Martin Marthadinata in Surabaya, a port city on the Indonesian island of Java, captured this image of Venus and the moon on February 28, 2017.

A waxing crescent moon – sometimes called a young moon – is always seen in the west after sunset. The late February/ early March 2017 young moon appears nears Venus and Mars.

Some people think a moon visible in the west after sunset is a rising moon. But it’s not; it’s a setting moon. All objects in our sky rise in the east and set in the west, due to Earth’s spin under the sky. When you see a waxing crescent, you know the Earth, moon and sun are located nearly on a line in space. If they were more precisely on a line, as they are at new moon, we wouldn’t see the moon. The moon would travel across the sky during the day, lost in the sun’s glare.

But a waxing crescent moon is far enough away from that Earth-sun line to be visible near the sun’s glare – that is, in the west after sunset. Watch for the moon near the planets this week!

At the end of February and the beginning of March, the waxing crescent moon swings by the planets Venus and Mars. Do you have binoculars? Then seek for the planet Uranus in the same binocular field with Mars! Read more.

And, by the way, if you could view Venus through a telescope now, you’d find it in a crescent phase, too. It’s look just like a tiny crescent moon. Telescopes reveal Venus as a crescent in our sky now because the planet is about to sweep (more or less) between the Earth and sun at inferior conjunction on March 25. Hence, the day side of Venus is mostly aimed away from our direction now, and Venus will continue to wane in phase until it passes inferior conjunction and enters the morning sky.

As for the moon, although there are seasonal effects, in general a waxing moon is seen one day to several days after new moon. It’s always seen in the evening, and it’s always seen in the west. On these days, the moon rises one hour to several hours behind the sun and follows the sun across the sky during the day. When the sun sets, and the sky darkens, the moon pops into view in the western sky.

The moon is now waxing toward first quarter. Next first quarter moon will be March 5, 2017 at 11:32 UTC.

Next full moon is March 12 at 14:54 UTC.

Translate to your time zone.

2017 started out with a beautiful waxing crescent moon. This day-lapse composite image combines the earthshine moon from New Year’s Day with the crescent moon from the following day. A wide-field image with Venus at sunset and more information on how to make day-lapse images is available from Robert Pettengill of Austin, Texas.

Note that a crescent moon has nothing to do with Earth’s shadow on the moon. The only time Earth’s shadow can fall on the moon is at full moon, during a lunar eclipse. There is a shadow on a crescent moon, but it’s the moon’s own shadow. Night on the moon happens on the part of the moon submerged in the moon’s own shadow. Likewise, night on Earth happens on the part of Earth submerged in Earth’s own shadow.

Because the waxing crescent moon is nearly on a line with the Earth and sun, its illuminated hemisphere – or day side – is facing mostly away from us. We see only a slender fraction of the day side: a crescent moon. Each evening, because the moon is moving eastward in orbit around Earth, the moon appears farther from the sunset glare. It is moving farther from the Earth-sun line in space. Each evening, as the moon’s orbital motion carries it away from the Earth-sun line, we see more of the moon’s day side. Thus the crescent in the west after sunset appears to wax, or grow fatter each evening.

The pale glow on the darkened portion (night side) of a crescent moon is called earthshine. Is caused by light reflected from Earth’s day side onto the moon. After all, when you see a crescent moon in Earth’s sky, any moon people looking back at our world would see a nearly full Earth. Read more: What is earthshine?

Steven Arthur Sweet of Lunar101-MoonBook caught earthshine on the February 27, 2017 moon. He wrote: “Thin waxing crescent 1-day young moon in Pisces, captured from Centennial Hill, Toronto.”

As the moon orbits Earth, it changes phase in an orderly way. Follow these links to understand the various phases of the moon.

Four keys to understanding moon phases

Where’s the moon? Waxing crescent
Where’s the moon? First quarter
Where’s the moon? Waxing gibbous
What’s special about a full moon?
Where’s the moon? Waning gibbous
Where’s the moon? Last quarter
Where’s the moon? Waning crescent
Where’s the moon? New phase

Check out EarthSky’s guide to the bright planets.



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Martin Marthadinata in Surabaya, a port city on the Indonesian island of Java, captured this image of Venus and the moon on February 28, 2017.

A waxing crescent moon – sometimes called a young moon – is always seen in the west after sunset. The late February/ early March 2017 young moon appears nears Venus and Mars.

Some people think a moon visible in the west after sunset is a rising moon. But it’s not; it’s a setting moon. All objects in our sky rise in the east and set in the west, due to Earth’s spin under the sky. When you see a waxing crescent, you know the Earth, moon and sun are located nearly on a line in space. If they were more precisely on a line, as they are at new moon, we wouldn’t see the moon. The moon would travel across the sky during the day, lost in the sun’s glare.

But a waxing crescent moon is far enough away from that Earth-sun line to be visible near the sun’s glare – that is, in the west after sunset. Watch for the moon near the planets this week!

At the end of February and the beginning of March, the waxing crescent moon swings by the planets Venus and Mars. Do you have binoculars? Then seek for the planet Uranus in the same binocular field with Mars! Read more.

And, by the way, if you could view Venus through a telescope now, you’d find it in a crescent phase, too. It’s look just like a tiny crescent moon. Telescopes reveal Venus as a crescent in our sky now because the planet is about to sweep (more or less) between the Earth and sun at inferior conjunction on March 25. Hence, the day side of Venus is mostly aimed away from our direction now, and Venus will continue to wane in phase until it passes inferior conjunction and enters the morning sky.

As for the moon, although there are seasonal effects, in general a waxing moon is seen one day to several days after new moon. It’s always seen in the evening, and it’s always seen in the west. On these days, the moon rises one hour to several hours behind the sun and follows the sun across the sky during the day. When the sun sets, and the sky darkens, the moon pops into view in the western sky.

The moon is now waxing toward first quarter. Next first quarter moon will be March 5, 2017 at 11:32 UTC.

Next full moon is March 12 at 14:54 UTC.

Translate to your time zone.

2017 started out with a beautiful waxing crescent moon. This day-lapse composite image combines the earthshine moon from New Year’s Day with the crescent moon from the following day. A wide-field image with Venus at sunset and more information on how to make day-lapse images is available from Robert Pettengill of Austin, Texas.

Note that a crescent moon has nothing to do with Earth’s shadow on the moon. The only time Earth’s shadow can fall on the moon is at full moon, during a lunar eclipse. There is a shadow on a crescent moon, but it’s the moon’s own shadow. Night on the moon happens on the part of the moon submerged in the moon’s own shadow. Likewise, night on Earth happens on the part of Earth submerged in Earth’s own shadow.

Because the waxing crescent moon is nearly on a line with the Earth and sun, its illuminated hemisphere – or day side – is facing mostly away from us. We see only a slender fraction of the day side: a crescent moon. Each evening, because the moon is moving eastward in orbit around Earth, the moon appears farther from the sunset glare. It is moving farther from the Earth-sun line in space. Each evening, as the moon’s orbital motion carries it away from the Earth-sun line, we see more of the moon’s day side. Thus the crescent in the west after sunset appears to wax, or grow fatter each evening.

The pale glow on the darkened portion (night side) of a crescent moon is called earthshine. Is caused by light reflected from Earth’s day side onto the moon. After all, when you see a crescent moon in Earth’s sky, any moon people looking back at our world would see a nearly full Earth. Read more: What is earthshine?

Steven Arthur Sweet of Lunar101-MoonBook caught earthshine on the February 27, 2017 moon. He wrote: “Thin waxing crescent 1-day young moon in Pisces, captured from Centennial Hill, Toronto.”

As the moon orbits Earth, it changes phase in an orderly way. Follow these links to understand the various phases of the moon.

Four keys to understanding moon phases

Where’s the moon? Waxing crescent
Where’s the moon? First quarter
Where’s the moon? Waxing gibbous
What’s special about a full moon?
Where’s the moon? Waning gibbous
Where’s the moon? Last quarter
Where’s the moon? Waning crescent
Where’s the moon? New phase

Check out EarthSky’s guide to the bright planets.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1trITpz

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