Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36, 2019

87 items this week, with 23 available as open access.

What are we doing on Mars?

We're from Earth, yet Included in this week's trawl of research articles are Streeter et al with Surface warming during the 2018/Mars Year 34 Global Dust Storm. Why are we visiting Mars today? Because the same storm that silenced the doughty Opportunity rover after over 14 years of operation yields an interesting research result on the dust-up's temporary effect on the Martian climate:

The impact of Mars’ 2018 Global Dust Storm (GDS) on surface and near‐surface air temperatures was investigated using an assimilation of Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) observations. Rather than simply resulting in cooling everywhere from solar absorption (average surface radiative flux fell 26 Wm‐2), the globally‐averaged result was a 0.9 K surface warming. These diurnally‐averaged surface temperature changes had a novel, highly non‐uniform spatial structure, with up to 16 K cooling/19 K warming. Net warming occurred in low thermal inertia (TI) regions, where rapid night‐time radiative cooling was compensated by increased longwave emission and scattering. This caused strong nightside warming, outweighing dayside cooling. The reduced surface‐air temperature gradient closely coupled surface and air temperatures, even causing local dayside air warming. 

Note the similar causal mechanism and ultimate effect of increased surface temperatures to what a little additional CO2 in Earth's atmosphere produces. Despite a drastic reduction of surface energy delivery to Mars, night time temperatures rose and this effect was even true to some extent in day time.

Leaving aside dust not being gaseous, the principle and concerning difference between the two is that dust rapidly drops out of the atmosphere whether on Mars or at home, while the additional CO2 we've liberated into our local thin skin of gas will require several hundred years to find a permanent new home away from where it causes deleterious effects on our climate.

Lost in thought

It's continually surprising to see the almost laconic back-and-forth exploration of abstract economic matters as they apply to climate change, which to some of us seems to lack a sense of urgency or connection to the real world. Not to pick on them but simply as they appeared in this week's haul, as an example Mallapragada & Mignone bring us A theoretical basis for the equivalence between physical and economic climate metrics and implications for the choice of Global Warming Potential time horizon: 

The global warming potential (GWP) is widely used in policy analysis, national greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting, and technology life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the impact of non-CO2 GHG emissions to the impact of CO2 emissions. While the GWP is simple and versatile, different views about the appropriate choice of time horizon—and the factors that affect that choice—can impede decision-making. If the GWP is viewed as an approximation to a climate metric that more directly measures economic impact—the global damage potential (GDP)—then the time horizon may be viewed as a proxy for the discount rate. However, the validity of this equivalence rests on the theoretical basis used to equate the two metrics. In this paper, we develop a new theoretical basis for relating the GWP time horizon and the economic discount rate that avoids the most restrictive assumptions of prior studies, such as an assumed linear relationship between economic damages and temperature. We validate this approach with an extensive set of numerical experiments using an up-to-date climate emulator that represents state-dependent climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The numerical results largely confirm the theoretical finding that, under certain reasonable assumptions, time horizons in the GWP of 100 years and 20 years are most consistent with discount rates of approximately 3% and 7% (or greater), respectively.

Introduction of the "discount rate" into thinking about climate change mitigation and adaptation costs and expenditures confuses simple and ignorant minds (such as the author of this blog entry). Application of a scrupulously calculated discount rate to the question of spending related to climate change is promised to yield a brighter future.To this layperson establishing this magic number appears to be a form of paralytic perfectionism and as well seems dependent on unreliable information about a future beyond our ken. 

As a person who spends time on boats and yet fully intends to never fall overboard, I can spend a lot or a little on a "PFD" (personal flotation device) despite knowing full well that any such expenditure large or small will be much more productively employed in a true investment even at a very poor interest rate, per the advice of economic experts. The wisdom and promised benefits of not buying a PFD hold  true until the exact moment when I pitch overboard into cold water and shortly am depending on the PFD for continued survival, at which point more riches in the future become crisply abstract. Surely if I'm dead I won't be able to grow my personal economy; staying alive appears to be a prime requirement for my successful economic outcome. Thus I choose to waste money now on a quality PFD despite it not being a rational choice in the formal economic sense.

Assuming we'll stay high and dry may drive the decision to not buy a PFD and instead invest elsewhere. Similarly, overweening fascination with and pursuit of establishing theoretically defensible discount rates in connection with climate change appears to hinge on a relatively static scenario of a functioning economy resembling to some degree what we've come to expect from the past: a machine producing more or less steady and uninterrupted growth. It seems arguable that assumptions required to model such an economy and produce an academically worthy and admirable result are not necessarily valid given the broadly agreed dire projections we face of global warming and its various knock-on disruptions; we're entering an era with challenges on a scale and breadth we've not yet encountered and so old rules may not apply.

 What am I missing?  

Ideally an actual economist would explain this in terms an ordinary layperson might understand. Coming up for air and offering some conclusions with clear directions based on the assumption we will be falling overboard and indeed have already lost our grip and footing— are clumsily plunging over the lifelines into a life-threatening circumstance— would be very helpful. Is there an argument for obtaining a PFD, the notionally irrational choice to spend money to buy some better luck, a wager to help assure a future?

Articles:

Observation of climate warming

Influence of instrumentation on long temperature time series

Key Uncertainties in the Recent Air‐Sea Flux of CO2

Linking Global Changes of Snowfall and Wet-bulb Temperature

Gap filling of monthly temperature data and its effect on climatic variability and trends

How accurate are modern climate reanalyses for the data-sparse Tibetan Plateau region?

Analysis of total column CO2 and CH4 measurements in Berlin with WRF-GHG (open access)

Impact of warming shelf waters on ice mélange and terminus retreat at a large SE Greenland glacier (open access)

Strong changes in englacial temperatures despite insignificantchanges in ice thickness at Dôme du Goûter glacier (Mont-Blanc area) (open access)

A long-term dataset of climatic mass balance, snow conditions, and runoff in Svalbard (1957–2018) (open access)

Is deoxygenation detectable before warming in the thermocline? (open access)

Half a century of satellite remote sensing of sea-surface temperature

Remote sensing of glacier and ice sheet grounding lines: A review

Analyses of observed features and future trend of extreme temperature events in Inner Mongolia of China

Chaotic signature of climate extremes

Characteristics of observed rainfall over Odisha: An extreme vulnerable zone in the east coast of India

HadUK‐Grid—A new UK dataset of gridded climate observations (open access)

Physical science of global warming

Revised estimates of paleoclimate sensitivity over the past 800,000 years

Indian Ocean Warming Trend Reduces Pacific Warming Response to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases: An Interbasin Thermostat Mechanism

Ocean heat transport into the Barents Sea: Distinct controls on the upward trend and interannual variability

Warm Events Induce Loss of Resilience in Organic Carbon Production in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

Surface warming during the 2018/Mars Year 34 Global Dust Storm

Dynamics and thermodynamics of the mean Transpolar Drift and ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean

Brief communication: A submarine wall protecting the Amundsen Sea intensifies melting of neighboring ice shelves (open access)

Changes in the sensitivity of tropical rainfall response to local sea surface temperature anomalies under global warming

A review of the major drivers of the terrestrial carbon uptake: model-based assessments, consensus, and uncertainties (open access)

A missing component of Arctic warming: black carbon from gas flaring (open access)

Proglacial freshwaters are significant and previously unrecognized sinks of atmospheric CO2 (open access)

Biology of the warming planet

Biogeochemical anomalies at two southern California Current System moorings during the 2014‐16 Warm Anomaly‐El Niño sequence

Influence of late Quaternary climate on the biogeography of Neotropical aquatic species as reflected by non-marine ostracodes (open access)

Projecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability

Secondary forest fragments offer important carbon‐biodiversity co‐benefits

Climate warming alters subsoil but not topsoil carbon dynamics in alpine grassland

Multiple stressor effects on coral reef ecosystems

Role of suspension feeders in antarctic pelagic-benthic coupling: Trophic ecology and potential carbon sinks under climate change

Effects of long-term exposure to reduced pH conditions on the shell and survival of an intertidal gastropod

Microbial responses to warming enhance soil carbon loss following translocation across a tropical forest elevation gradient

Modeling the warming climate

Sahelian precipitation change induced by SST increase: the contrasting roles of regional and larger‐scale drivers

Probing the Sources of Uncertainty in Transient Warming on Different Time‐Scales

Nonlinear response of extreme precipitation to warming in CESM1

Projected changes in daily variability and seasonal cycle of near-surface air temperature over the globe during the 21st century

Reproducing Internal Variability with Few Ensemble Runs

A modeling and process-oriented study to investigate the projected change of ENSO-forced wintertime teleconnectivity in a warmer world

Re-examining the first climate models: Climate sensitivity of a modern radiative-convective equilibrium model

Enhanced climate change response of wintertime North Atlantic circulation, cyclonic activity and precipitation in a 25 km-resolution global atmospheric model

Intercomparison and improvement of two-stream shortwave radiative transfer schemes in Earth system models for a unified treatment of cryospheric surfaces (open access)

Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line–plume model (open access)

Applicability and consequences of the integration of alternative models for CO2 transfer velocity into a process-based lake model (open access)

Remapping of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance anomalies for large ensemble sea-level change projections (open access)

Projected changes in mid‐high latitude Eurasian climate during boreal spring in a 1.5oC and 2oC warmer world

Climate projections for glacier change modelling over the Himalayas

Statistical downscaling to project extreme hourly precipitation over the UK

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models

Humans deal with our warming the climate

Evaluating climate change adaptation pathways through capital assessment: five case studies of forest social-ecological systems in France

The impact of climate change and variability on coffee production: a systematic review

The impact of temperature on mortality across different climate zones

A theoretical basis for the equivalence between physical and economic climate metrics and implications for the choice of Global Warming Potential time horizon (open access)

Social preferences for distributive outcomes of climate policy

Macro-economic analysis of green growth policies: the role of finance and technical progress in Italian green growth

Linking scales and disciplines: an interdisciplinary cross-scale approach to supporting climate-relevant ecosystem management (open access)

Does it matter if you “believe” in climate change? Not for coastal home vulnerability

Temperature and production efficiency growth: empirical evidence

Yield implications of date and cultivar adaptation to wheat phenological shifts: a survey of farmers in Turkey

Planned retreat in Global South megacities: disentangling policy, practice, and environmental justice

Climate change, natural hazards, and relocation: insights from Nabukadra and Navuniivi villages in Fiji

The accuracy of German citizens’ confidence in their climate change knowledge

Gendered perceptions of climate variability, food insecurity, and adaptation practices in Nepal (open access)

The future of agriculture and food: Evaluating the holistic costs and benefits

Evaluating China's water security for food production: The role of rainfall and irrigation

Characterization of Extreme Wet‐Bulb Temperature Events in Southern Pakistan

Neglecting the urban? Exploring rural-urban disparities in the climate change–conflict literature on Sub-Sahara Africa

Global adaptation governance: An emerging but contested domain

Indigenous perceptions of climate anomalies in Malaysian Borneo

Valuation of nature and nature’s contributions to people (open access)

Rules to goals: emergence of new governance strategies for sustainable development (open access)

Energy demand transitions and climate mitigation in low-income urban households in India (open access)

Harvesting big data from residential building energy performance certificates: retrofitting and climate change mitigation insights at a regional scale (open access)

Urbanization and CO 2 emissions in resource-exhausted cities: evidence from Xuzhou city, China

The global cropland footprint of Denmark's food supply 2000–2013

Potentials and opportunities for low carbon energy transition in Vietnam: A policy analysis

Analysis of carbon tax efficiency in energy industries of selected EU countries

Quantifying carbon for agricultural soil management: from the current status toward a global soil information system (open access)

Carbon capture induced changes in Deccan basalt: a mass‐balance approach

Suggestions

Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

The previous edition of Skeptical Science new research may be found here. 

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/303wuwb

87 items this week, with 23 available as open access.

What are we doing on Mars?

We're from Earth, yet Included in this week's trawl of research articles are Streeter et al with Surface warming during the 2018/Mars Year 34 Global Dust Storm. Why are we visiting Mars today? Because the same storm that silenced the doughty Opportunity rover after over 14 years of operation yields an interesting research result on the dust-up's temporary effect on the Martian climate:

The impact of Mars’ 2018 Global Dust Storm (GDS) on surface and near‐surface air temperatures was investigated using an assimilation of Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) observations. Rather than simply resulting in cooling everywhere from solar absorption (average surface radiative flux fell 26 Wm‐2), the globally‐averaged result was a 0.9 K surface warming. These diurnally‐averaged surface temperature changes had a novel, highly non‐uniform spatial structure, with up to 16 K cooling/19 K warming. Net warming occurred in low thermal inertia (TI) regions, where rapid night‐time radiative cooling was compensated by increased longwave emission and scattering. This caused strong nightside warming, outweighing dayside cooling. The reduced surface‐air temperature gradient closely coupled surface and air temperatures, even causing local dayside air warming. 

Note the similar causal mechanism and ultimate effect of increased surface temperatures to what a little additional CO2 in Earth's atmosphere produces. Despite a drastic reduction of surface energy delivery to Mars, night time temperatures rose and this effect was even true to some extent in day time.

Leaving aside dust not being gaseous, the principle and concerning difference between the two is that dust rapidly drops out of the atmosphere whether on Mars or at home, while the additional CO2 we've liberated into our local thin skin of gas will require several hundred years to find a permanent new home away from where it causes deleterious effects on our climate.

Lost in thought

It's continually surprising to see the almost laconic back-and-forth exploration of abstract economic matters as they apply to climate change, which to some of us seems to lack a sense of urgency or connection to the real world. Not to pick on them but simply as they appeared in this week's haul, as an example Mallapragada & Mignone bring us A theoretical basis for the equivalence between physical and economic climate metrics and implications for the choice of Global Warming Potential time horizon: 

The global warming potential (GWP) is widely used in policy analysis, national greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting, and technology life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the impact of non-CO2 GHG emissions to the impact of CO2 emissions. While the GWP is simple and versatile, different views about the appropriate choice of time horizon—and the factors that affect that choice—can impede decision-making. If the GWP is viewed as an approximation to a climate metric that more directly measures economic impact—the global damage potential (GDP)—then the time horizon may be viewed as a proxy for the discount rate. However, the validity of this equivalence rests on the theoretical basis used to equate the two metrics. In this paper, we develop a new theoretical basis for relating the GWP time horizon and the economic discount rate that avoids the most restrictive assumptions of prior studies, such as an assumed linear relationship between economic damages and temperature. We validate this approach with an extensive set of numerical experiments using an up-to-date climate emulator that represents state-dependent climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The numerical results largely confirm the theoretical finding that, under certain reasonable assumptions, time horizons in the GWP of 100 years and 20 years are most consistent with discount rates of approximately 3% and 7% (or greater), respectively.

Introduction of the "discount rate" into thinking about climate change mitigation and adaptation costs and expenditures confuses simple and ignorant minds (such as the author of this blog entry). Application of a scrupulously calculated discount rate to the question of spending related to climate change is promised to yield a brighter future.To this layperson establishing this magic number appears to be a form of paralytic perfectionism and as well seems dependent on unreliable information about a future beyond our ken. 

As a person who spends time on boats and yet fully intends to never fall overboard, I can spend a lot or a little on a "PFD" (personal flotation device) despite knowing full well that any such expenditure large or small will be much more productively employed in a true investment even at a very poor interest rate, per the advice of economic experts. The wisdom and promised benefits of not buying a PFD hold  true until the exact moment when I pitch overboard into cold water and shortly am depending on the PFD for continued survival, at which point more riches in the future become crisply abstract. Surely if I'm dead I won't be able to grow my personal economy; staying alive appears to be a prime requirement for my successful economic outcome. Thus I choose to waste money now on a quality PFD despite it not being a rational choice in the formal economic sense.

Assuming we'll stay high and dry may drive the decision to not buy a PFD and instead invest elsewhere. Similarly, overweening fascination with and pursuit of establishing theoretically defensible discount rates in connection with climate change appears to hinge on a relatively static scenario of a functioning economy resembling to some degree what we've come to expect from the past: a machine producing more or less steady and uninterrupted growth. It seems arguable that assumptions required to model such an economy and produce an academically worthy and admirable result are not necessarily valid given the broadly agreed dire projections we face of global warming and its various knock-on disruptions; we're entering an era with challenges on a scale and breadth we've not yet encountered and so old rules may not apply.

 What am I missing?  

Ideally an actual economist would explain this in terms an ordinary layperson might understand. Coming up for air and offering some conclusions with clear directions based on the assumption we will be falling overboard and indeed have already lost our grip and footing— are clumsily plunging over the lifelines into a life-threatening circumstance— would be very helpful. Is there an argument for obtaining a PFD, the notionally irrational choice to spend money to buy some better luck, a wager to help assure a future?

Articles:

Observation of climate warming

Influence of instrumentation on long temperature time series

Key Uncertainties in the Recent Air‐Sea Flux of CO2

Linking Global Changes of Snowfall and Wet-bulb Temperature

Gap filling of monthly temperature data and its effect on climatic variability and trends

How accurate are modern climate reanalyses for the data-sparse Tibetan Plateau region?

Analysis of total column CO2 and CH4 measurements in Berlin with WRF-GHG (open access)

Impact of warming shelf waters on ice mélange and terminus retreat at a large SE Greenland glacier (open access)

Strong changes in englacial temperatures despite insignificantchanges in ice thickness at Dôme du Goûter glacier (Mont-Blanc area) (open access)

A long-term dataset of climatic mass balance, snow conditions, and runoff in Svalbard (1957–2018) (open access)

Is deoxygenation detectable before warming in the thermocline? (open access)

Half a century of satellite remote sensing of sea-surface temperature

Remote sensing of glacier and ice sheet grounding lines: A review

Analyses of observed features and future trend of extreme temperature events in Inner Mongolia of China

Chaotic signature of climate extremes

Characteristics of observed rainfall over Odisha: An extreme vulnerable zone in the east coast of India

HadUK‐Grid—A new UK dataset of gridded climate observations (open access)

Physical science of global warming

Revised estimates of paleoclimate sensitivity over the past 800,000 years

Indian Ocean Warming Trend Reduces Pacific Warming Response to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases: An Interbasin Thermostat Mechanism

Ocean heat transport into the Barents Sea: Distinct controls on the upward trend and interannual variability

Warm Events Induce Loss of Resilience in Organic Carbon Production in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

Surface warming during the 2018/Mars Year 34 Global Dust Storm

Dynamics and thermodynamics of the mean Transpolar Drift and ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean

Brief communication: A submarine wall protecting the Amundsen Sea intensifies melting of neighboring ice shelves (open access)

Changes in the sensitivity of tropical rainfall response to local sea surface temperature anomalies under global warming

A review of the major drivers of the terrestrial carbon uptake: model-based assessments, consensus, and uncertainties (open access)

A missing component of Arctic warming: black carbon from gas flaring (open access)

Proglacial freshwaters are significant and previously unrecognized sinks of atmospheric CO2 (open access)

Biology of the warming planet

Biogeochemical anomalies at two southern California Current System moorings during the 2014‐16 Warm Anomaly‐El Niño sequence

Influence of late Quaternary climate on the biogeography of Neotropical aquatic species as reflected by non-marine ostracodes (open access)

Projecting marine species range shifts from only temperature can mask climate vulnerability

Secondary forest fragments offer important carbon‐biodiversity co‐benefits

Climate warming alters subsoil but not topsoil carbon dynamics in alpine grassland

Multiple stressor effects on coral reef ecosystems

Role of suspension feeders in antarctic pelagic-benthic coupling: Trophic ecology and potential carbon sinks under climate change

Effects of long-term exposure to reduced pH conditions on the shell and survival of an intertidal gastropod

Microbial responses to warming enhance soil carbon loss following translocation across a tropical forest elevation gradient

Modeling the warming climate

Sahelian precipitation change induced by SST increase: the contrasting roles of regional and larger‐scale drivers

Probing the Sources of Uncertainty in Transient Warming on Different Time‐Scales

Nonlinear response of extreme precipitation to warming in CESM1

Projected changes in daily variability and seasonal cycle of near-surface air temperature over the globe during the 21st century

Reproducing Internal Variability with Few Ensemble Runs

A modeling and process-oriented study to investigate the projected change of ENSO-forced wintertime teleconnectivity in a warmer world

Re-examining the first climate models: Climate sensitivity of a modern radiative-convective equilibrium model

Enhanced climate change response of wintertime North Atlantic circulation, cyclonic activity and precipitation in a 25 km-resolution global atmospheric model

Intercomparison and improvement of two-stream shortwave radiative transfer schemes in Earth system models for a unified treatment of cryospheric surfaces (open access)

Modeling the response of Greenland outlet glaciers to global warming using a coupled flow line–plume model (open access)

Applicability and consequences of the integration of alternative models for CO2 transfer velocity into a process-based lake model (open access)

Remapping of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance anomalies for large ensemble sea-level change projections (open access)

Projected changes in mid‐high latitude Eurasian climate during boreal spring in a 1.5oC and 2oC warmer world

Climate projections for glacier change modelling over the Himalayas

Statistical downscaling to project extreme hourly precipitation over the UK

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models

Humans deal with our warming the climate

Evaluating climate change adaptation pathways through capital assessment: five case studies of forest social-ecological systems in France

The impact of climate change and variability on coffee production: a systematic review

The impact of temperature on mortality across different climate zones

A theoretical basis for the equivalence between physical and economic climate metrics and implications for the choice of Global Warming Potential time horizon (open access)

Social preferences for distributive outcomes of climate policy

Macro-economic analysis of green growth policies: the role of finance and technical progress in Italian green growth

Linking scales and disciplines: an interdisciplinary cross-scale approach to supporting climate-relevant ecosystem management (open access)

Does it matter if you “believe” in climate change? Not for coastal home vulnerability

Temperature and production efficiency growth: empirical evidence

Yield implications of date and cultivar adaptation to wheat phenological shifts: a survey of farmers in Turkey

Planned retreat in Global South megacities: disentangling policy, practice, and environmental justice

Climate change, natural hazards, and relocation: insights from Nabukadra and Navuniivi villages in Fiji

The accuracy of German citizens’ confidence in their climate change knowledge

Gendered perceptions of climate variability, food insecurity, and adaptation practices in Nepal (open access)

The future of agriculture and food: Evaluating the holistic costs and benefits

Evaluating China's water security for food production: The role of rainfall and irrigation

Characterization of Extreme Wet‐Bulb Temperature Events in Southern Pakistan

Neglecting the urban? Exploring rural-urban disparities in the climate change–conflict literature on Sub-Sahara Africa

Global adaptation governance: An emerging but contested domain

Indigenous perceptions of climate anomalies in Malaysian Borneo

Valuation of nature and nature’s contributions to people (open access)

Rules to goals: emergence of new governance strategies for sustainable development (open access)

Energy demand transitions and climate mitigation in low-income urban households in India (open access)

Harvesting big data from residential building energy performance certificates: retrofitting and climate change mitigation insights at a regional scale (open access)

Urbanization and CO 2 emissions in resource-exhausted cities: evidence from Xuzhou city, China

The global cropland footprint of Denmark's food supply 2000–2013

Potentials and opportunities for low carbon energy transition in Vietnam: A policy analysis

Analysis of carbon tax efficiency in energy industries of selected EU countries

Quantifying carbon for agricultural soil management: from the current status toward a global soil information system (open access)

Carbon capture induced changes in Deccan basalt: a mass‐balance approach

Suggestions

Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

The previous edition of Skeptical Science new research may be found here. 

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/303wuwb

Key facts about the new EPA plan to reverse the Obama-era methane leaks rule

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections

President Trump’s EPA is moving to roll back 2016 Obama administration methane leak regulations for key parts of the oil and gas industry, another example of what seems an across-the-board repudiation of Obama-era environmental and climate change initiatives. The new proposal, if made final, is certain to face legal challenges, with its ultimate fate perhaps being decided only by the administration in office in 2021.

EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler in late August signed and later announced a proposed rule that would significantly weaken the methane leak reporting regulations. The proposed approach generally would allow transmission and storage sectors of the industry to self-regulate and self-report leaks of the highly-potent greenhouse gas.

In a prepared statement, Wheeler said “methane is valuable, and the industry has an incentive to minimize leaks and maximize its use.” He said that since 1990, “methane emissions across the natural gas industry have fallen by nearly 15%,” and that the new EPA approach “should not stifle this innovation and progress.” Separate rules on volatile organic chemicals “also reduce methane,” making the existing rule “redundant,” Wheeler argued.

Some large oil and gas companies, including BP, Exxon, and Shell, had voiced opposition to the new rules rollback.

But smaller companies and the industry’s principal trade association, the American Petroleum Institute, with more than 620 oil and gas company members, had pushed for weakening the methane regulations. They argue that mandated leak inspections are too costly and could make operation of small, often-leaky wells uneconomical. Wheeler appeared persuaded by these arguments, announcing that the new plan “removes unnecessary and duplicative regulatory burdens from the oil and gas industry” and will save fossil fuel companies around $100 million over the next six years.

The larger oil and gas companies appear to have opposed the new EPA move at least in part because their natural gas interests benefit from being seen as a climate-friendly alternative to coal, and a “bridge fuel” for the transition from coal to renewable energy.

But some scientific research has suggested that methane leakage from natural gas infrastructure such as fracking can erase much of its claimed climate benefits. For instance, authors of a 2018 study published in Science found that the amount of methane resulting from leaks exceeds by 60% the estimates made by EPA. “Considerable amounts of the greenhouse gas methane leak from the U.S. oil and natural gas supply chain,” the authors of that study wrote. They said the difference between EPA’s estimates and their own are the result of “current inventory methods [that] miss emissions that occur during abnormal operating conditions.”

Methane and CO2 comparisons

Carbon dioxide exceeds by a factor of more than 200 times the levels of methane in Earth’s atmosphere, but methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, in 2013 estimated that the greenhouse effect from methane is 34 times stronger than carbon dioxide over a 100-year period, and 86 times stronger over a 20-year period. Its potency decreases over time because methane is a relatively short-lived greenhouse gas, mostly breaking down under chemical reactions after about 12 years, whereas carbon dioxide persists in the atmosphere for centuries.

However, a 2017 study noted that most of the heat trapped by methane and other greenhouse gases is absorbed by the oceans and transported through Earth’s climate system for hundreds of years. As a result, their effects on climate impacts like sea-level rise last well beyond just the individual greenhouse gases’ atmospheric lifetimes.

Overall, methane is responsible for about 16% of human-caused global warming, carbon dioxide for 65%.

Methane levels in the atmosphere had flattened out between the years 2000 and 2006 but have risen sharply since then. Scientists have struggled to determine the source of this rise – could it be from agriculture (e.g. cattle burps), tropical wetlands, and/or fossil fuels?

Some previous studies have suggested agriculture could be the primary source, but an August 2019 study in Biogeosciences concluded, “shale-gas production in North America over the past decade may have contributed more than half of all of the increased [methane] emissions from fossil fuels globally and approximately one-third of the total increased emissions from all sources globally over the past decade … the commercialization of shale gas and oil in the 21st century has dramatically increased global methane emissions.”

Shale gas production has boomed in the U.S. in recent years as a result of a rapid expansion of fracking, lending weight to this conclusion. And the industry is poised to continue expanding – a recent report from the advocacy group Food & Water Watch found more than 700 fracked gas infrastructure projects recently built or proposed for development in the U.S.

Click here to read the rest

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/316u1CA

This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections

President Trump’s EPA is moving to roll back 2016 Obama administration methane leak regulations for key parts of the oil and gas industry, another example of what seems an across-the-board repudiation of Obama-era environmental and climate change initiatives. The new proposal, if made final, is certain to face legal challenges, with its ultimate fate perhaps being decided only by the administration in office in 2021.

EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler in late August signed and later announced a proposed rule that would significantly weaken the methane leak reporting regulations. The proposed approach generally would allow transmission and storage sectors of the industry to self-regulate and self-report leaks of the highly-potent greenhouse gas.

In a prepared statement, Wheeler said “methane is valuable, and the industry has an incentive to minimize leaks and maximize its use.” He said that since 1990, “methane emissions across the natural gas industry have fallen by nearly 15%,” and that the new EPA approach “should not stifle this innovation and progress.” Separate rules on volatile organic chemicals “also reduce methane,” making the existing rule “redundant,” Wheeler argued.

Some large oil and gas companies, including BP, Exxon, and Shell, had voiced opposition to the new rules rollback.

But smaller companies and the industry’s principal trade association, the American Petroleum Institute, with more than 620 oil and gas company members, had pushed for weakening the methane regulations. They argue that mandated leak inspections are too costly and could make operation of small, often-leaky wells uneconomical. Wheeler appeared persuaded by these arguments, announcing that the new plan “removes unnecessary and duplicative regulatory burdens from the oil and gas industry” and will save fossil fuel companies around $100 million over the next six years.

The larger oil and gas companies appear to have opposed the new EPA move at least in part because their natural gas interests benefit from being seen as a climate-friendly alternative to coal, and a “bridge fuel” for the transition from coal to renewable energy.

But some scientific research has suggested that methane leakage from natural gas infrastructure such as fracking can erase much of its claimed climate benefits. For instance, authors of a 2018 study published in Science found that the amount of methane resulting from leaks exceeds by 60% the estimates made by EPA. “Considerable amounts of the greenhouse gas methane leak from the U.S. oil and natural gas supply chain,” the authors of that study wrote. They said the difference between EPA’s estimates and their own are the result of “current inventory methods [that] miss emissions that occur during abnormal operating conditions.”

Methane and CO2 comparisons

Carbon dioxide exceeds by a factor of more than 200 times the levels of methane in Earth’s atmosphere, but methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, in 2013 estimated that the greenhouse effect from methane is 34 times stronger than carbon dioxide over a 100-year period, and 86 times stronger over a 20-year period. Its potency decreases over time because methane is a relatively short-lived greenhouse gas, mostly breaking down under chemical reactions after about 12 years, whereas carbon dioxide persists in the atmosphere for centuries.

However, a 2017 study noted that most of the heat trapped by methane and other greenhouse gases is absorbed by the oceans and transported through Earth’s climate system for hundreds of years. As a result, their effects on climate impacts like sea-level rise last well beyond just the individual greenhouse gases’ atmospheric lifetimes.

Overall, methane is responsible for about 16% of human-caused global warming, carbon dioxide for 65%.

Methane levels in the atmosphere had flattened out between the years 2000 and 2006 but have risen sharply since then. Scientists have struggled to determine the source of this rise – could it be from agriculture (e.g. cattle burps), tropical wetlands, and/or fossil fuels?

Some previous studies have suggested agriculture could be the primary source, but an August 2019 study in Biogeosciences concluded, “shale-gas production in North America over the past decade may have contributed more than half of all of the increased [methane] emissions from fossil fuels globally and approximately one-third of the total increased emissions from all sources globally over the past decade … the commercialization of shale gas and oil in the 21st century has dramatically increased global methane emissions.”

Shale gas production has boomed in the U.S. in recent years as a result of a rapid expansion of fracking, lending weight to this conclusion. And the industry is poised to continue expanding – a recent report from the advocacy group Food & Water Watch found more than 700 fracked gas infrastructure projects recently built or proposed for development in the U.S.

Click here to read the rest

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/316u1CA

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #36

Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Reviews... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week...

Story of the Week...

The air above Antarctica is suddenly getting warmer – here’s what it means for Australia

Antarctic winds have a huge effect on weather in other places. Photo: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center/Flickr CC BY-SA

Record warm temperatures above Antarctica over the coming weeks are likely to bring above-average spring temperatures and below-average rainfall across large parts of New South Wales and southern Queensland.

The warming began in the last week of August, when temperatures in the stratosphere high above the South Pole began rapidly heating in a phenomenon called “sudden stratospheric warming”.

In the coming weeks the warming is forecast to intensify, and its effects will extend downward to Earth’s surface, affecting much of eastern Australia over the coming months.

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting the strongest Antarctic warming on record, likely to exceed the previous record of September 2002.

The air above Antarctica is suddenly getting warmer – here’s what it means for Australia by Harry Hendon, Andrew B. Watkins, Eun-Pa Lim & Griffith Young , The Conversation AU, Sep 6, 2019

Click here to access the entire article. 

---

Toon of the Week...

 

Hat tip to the Facebook page of Stop Climate Science Denial

---

Coming Soon on SkS...

• Climate implications of the EPA methane rule rollback (Dana)
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36, 2019 (Doug Bostrom)
• How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous (Jeff Berardelli)
• What psychotherapy can do for the climate and biodiversity crises (Caroline Hickman)
• A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel (Lindsay Fendt)
• 2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #37 (John Hartz)
• 2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #37 (John Hartz)

---

Climate Feedback Reviews...

[To be added.]

---

Poster of the Week...

 

---

SkS Week in Review... 

• 2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #36 by John Hartz
• SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth by Evan & jg
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #35, 2019 by Doug Bostrom
• 2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #35 by John Hartz
• Consensus on consensus hits half a million downloads by John Cook

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/300gUl7

Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Reviews... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week...

Story of the Week...

The air above Antarctica is suddenly getting warmer – here’s what it means for Australia

Antarctic winds have a huge effect on weather in other places. Photo: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center/Flickr CC BY-SA

Record warm temperatures above Antarctica over the coming weeks are likely to bring above-average spring temperatures and below-average rainfall across large parts of New South Wales and southern Queensland.

The warming began in the last week of August, when temperatures in the stratosphere high above the South Pole began rapidly heating in a phenomenon called “sudden stratospheric warming”.

In the coming weeks the warming is forecast to intensify, and its effects will extend downward to Earth’s surface, affecting much of eastern Australia over the coming months.

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting the strongest Antarctic warming on record, likely to exceed the previous record of September 2002.

The air above Antarctica is suddenly getting warmer – here’s what it means for Australia by Harry Hendon, Andrew B. Watkins, Eun-Pa Lim & Griffith Young , The Conversation AU, Sep 6, 2019

Click here to access the entire article. 

---

Toon of the Week...

 

Hat tip to the Facebook page of Stop Climate Science Denial

---

Coming Soon on SkS...

• Climate implications of the EPA methane rule rollback (Dana)
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36, 2019 (Doug Bostrom)
• How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous (Jeff Berardelli)
• What psychotherapy can do for the climate and biodiversity crises (Caroline Hickman)
• A small electric plane demonstrates promise, obstacles of climate-friendly air travel (Lindsay Fendt)
• 2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #37 (John Hartz)
• 2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #37 (John Hartz)

---

Climate Feedback Reviews...

[To be added.]

---

Poster of the Week...

 

---

SkS Week in Review... 

• 2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #36 by John Hartz
• SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth by Evan & jg
• Skeptical Science New Research for Week #35, 2019 by Doug Bostrom
• 2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #35 by John Hartz
• Consensus on consensus hits half a million downloads by John Cook

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/300gUl7

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #36

A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Sep 1 through Sat, Sep 7, 2019

Editor's Pick

Hundreds of climate sceptics to mount international campaign to stop net-zero targets being made law

Exclusive: The signatories are part of a network pushing for environmental deregulation after Brexit – and some have links with Boris Johnson’s cabinet

Some of the 400 climate deniers have links to the prime minister's top ministers ( Getty ) 

Hundreds of climate change deniers including academics, politicians and lobbyists are to launch a campaign to stop commitments to net zero carbon emissions being enshrined in law, The Independent can reveal.

A letter titled “There is no climate emergency” – which has been signed by 400 people who deem climate change to be a myth – is being sent to leaders of the European Union (EU) and United Nations (UN) institutions in the coming weeks ahead of key environment talks.

The group will take further steps, which are to be outlined in press conferences in Oslo, Brussels, The Hague and Rome.

The climate deniers are connected to a transatlantic network of think tanks pushing for environmental deregulation after Brexit, which also have a history of climate science denial.

The letter, obtained by investigative non-profit news organisation DeSmog, shows the group has links with members of Boris Johnson’s Cabinet.

Hundreds of climate sceptics to mount international campaign to stop net-zero targets being made law by Phoebe Weston, Environment, The Independent (UK), Sep 6, 2019

Click here to access the entire article.

---

Articles Linked to on Facebook

Sun Sep 1, 2019

[On vacation.]

Mon Sep 2, 2019

• Those Hurricane Maps Don’t Mean What You Think They Mean, Opinion by by Alberto Cairo with Tala Schlossberg, Sunday Review, New York Times, Sept 1, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian is a powerful Category 4 hurricane — pummeling the Bahamas and heading "dangerously close" to Florida by Brian Resnick, Energy & Environment, Vox, Sep 2, 2019
• 'My sister says global warming is a lie. How do I talk to her?' by Sarah Peach (Ask Sarah), Yale Clime Connections, Sep 2, 2019
• A Missing Link in Predicting Hurricane Damage by Donatella Pasqualini, Observations, Scientific American, Aug 30, 2019
• The Group Raising An NRA-Style ‘Army Of Environmental Super Voters’ Is Expanding by Alexander C Kaufman, Politics, HuffPost, Sep 1, 2019

Tue Sep 3, 2019

• ‘It’s Really Close’: How the Amazon Rainforest Could Self-Destruct by Max Fisher, The Interpreter, New York Times, Aug 30, 2019
• Where Is the Amazon Rainforest Vanishing? Not Just in Brazil by Simon Romero, World, New York Times, Aug 30, 2019
• Floods wreaking havoc on Great Lakes region fueled by climate crisis by Tom Perkins, Environment, Guardian, Sep 3, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian Finally Moving Again; Hurricane Watch Extended into North Carolina, Hurricane Center, The Weather Channel, Sep 3, 2019
• Why Are Hurricanes Like Dorian Stalling, and Is Global Warming Involved? by Bob Berwyn, InsideClimate News, Sep 3, 2019
• As Category 5 Dorian Devastates, Pope Francis Urges World to Act Fast on Climate Emergency by Andrea Germanos, Common Dreams, Sep 3, 2019
• Do the Brazil Amazon fires justify environmental interventionism?, Opinion by Lawrence Douglas, Comment is Free, Guardian, Aug 31, 2019
• How much destruction is needed for us to take climate change seriously?, Opinion by Kate Arnoff, Comment is Free, Guardian, Sep 3, 2019

Wed Sep 4, 2019

• Hurricane Dorian Is Not a Freak Storm by Rachel Gutman, Science, The Atlantic Magazine, Sep 3, 2019
• Local UK Governments Must Enact Climate Plans or Face Legal Action, Law Group Warns by Karen Savage, Climate Liability News, Sep 3, 2019
• As Hurricane Dorian skirts the Florida and Georgia coasts, a landfall in the Carolinas is not yet out of the question by Christina Maxouris, CNN, Sep 4, 2019
• CNN is giving 2020 Democrats 7 hours to talk about climate change by Umair Irfan, Politics & Policy, Vox, Sep 3, 2019
• Global heating made Hurricane Dorian bigger, wetter – and more deadly, Opinion by Michael Mann & Andrew E Dressler, Comment is Free, Guardian, Sep 4, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian’s path could slow the Gulf Stream, causing sea level rise on SC coast by Tony Bartelme, Hurricane, Charleston Post & Courier, Sep 3, 2019
• Democrats propose spending trillions fighting climate change by Juana Summers & Ellen Knickmeyer, AP News, Sep 4, 2019
• The growing power and anger of climate change voters by Maeve Reston, CNN, Sep 4, 2019

Thu Sep 5, 2019

• Asia's growing coal use could negate global climate change progress, UN says by Patpicha Tanakasempipat, Reuters, Sep 4, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian destruction set to cost Bahamas 'up to billions' by , Beaumont, World, Guardian, Sep 4, 2019
• Big Ag Is Sabotaging Progress on Climate Change by Timothy A Wise,  Science, Wired, Aug 28, 2019
• What happened during CNN's climate town hall and what it means for 2020 by Stephen Collinson, CNN, Sep 5, 2019
• 6 winners and 3 losers from CNN’s climate town hall by Umair Irfan, David Roberts, Eliza Barclay, Ella Nilsen & Tara Golshan, Vox, Sep 5, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian Battering South Carolina, North Carolina With Flooding Rain, Storm Surge, High Winds, Tornadoes, Hurricane Central, The Weather Channel, Sep 5, 2019
• We watched all 7 hours of CNN’s climate town hall so you didn’t have to by Dan Zaks, Style, Washington Post, Sep 5, 2019
• Oil and gas companies undermining climate goals, says report by Jillian Ambrose, Environment, Guardian, Sep 5, 2019

Fri Sep 6, 2019

• Solar power could replace all US hydro dams using ‘just 13% of the space’ by Josh Gabbatiss, Carbon Brief, Aug 26, 2019
• Climate apartheid will only lead to more tragedies in the Mediterranean, Opinion by Carola Rackete, Comment is Free, Guardian, Sep 4, 2019
• Bahamas official warns people to prepare for the 'unimaginable' as hurricane death toll rises to 30 by Madeline Holcombe & Dakin Andone, CNN, Sep 6, 2019
• Bill McKibben: This Climate Strike Is Part of the Disruption We Need, Opinion by Bill McKibben, YES! Magazine, Sep 3, 2019
• Why methane emissions matter to climate change: 5 questions answered by Anthony J. Marchese & Dan Zimmerle, Environment & Energy, The Conversation US, Sep 4, 2019
• SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth by Evan & jg, Skeptical Science, Sep 5, 2019
• Media reaction: Amazon fires and climate change by Daisy Dunne & Robert McSweeney, Carbon Brief, Aug 27, 2019

Sat Sep 7, 2019

• Scientists monitoring new marine heat wave off B.C. coast similar to 'the Blob' by Rhianna Schmunk, Canada, British Columbia, CBC News, Sep 5, 2019
• Drought deepens as 'very dry winter' combines with record heat by Peter Hannam, Environment, Sydney Morning Herald, Sep 2, 2019
• The Bahamas' death toll is rising as 70,000 residents left homeless by Hurricane Dorian seek food and shelter by Victor Blackwell, Paula Newton & Christina Maxouris, CNN, Sep 7, 2019
• Dorian Makes Landfall at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina; Canada is Next by Jeff Masters, Category 6, Weather Underground, Sep 6, 2019
• The air above Antarctica is suddenly getting warmer – here’s what it means for Australia by Harry Hendon, Andrew B. Watkins, Eun-Pa Lim & Griffith Young , The Conversation AU, Sep 6, 2019
• Hundreds of climate sceptics to mount international campaign to stop net-zero targets being made law by Phoebe Weston, Environment, The Independent (UK), Sep 6, 2019
• Tourists and developers love Charleston. So do hurricanes. by Stephanie Hunt, Post Everything, Washington Post, Sep 5, 2019

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2PUFEeW

A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Sep 1 through Sat, Sep 7, 2019

Editor's Pick

Hundreds of climate sceptics to mount international campaign to stop net-zero targets being made law

Exclusive: The signatories are part of a network pushing for environmental deregulation after Brexit – and some have links with Boris Johnson’s cabinet

Some of the 400 climate deniers have links to the prime minister's top ministers ( Getty ) 

Hundreds of climate change deniers including academics, politicians and lobbyists are to launch a campaign to stop commitments to net zero carbon emissions being enshrined in law, The Independent can reveal.

A letter titled “There is no climate emergency” – which has been signed by 400 people who deem climate change to be a myth – is being sent to leaders of the European Union (EU) and United Nations (UN) institutions in the coming weeks ahead of key environment talks.

The group will take further steps, which are to be outlined in press conferences in Oslo, Brussels, The Hague and Rome.

The climate deniers are connected to a transatlantic network of think tanks pushing for environmental deregulation after Brexit, which also have a history of climate science denial.

The letter, obtained by investigative non-profit news organisation DeSmog, shows the group has links with members of Boris Johnson’s Cabinet.

Hundreds of climate sceptics to mount international campaign to stop net-zero targets being made law by Phoebe Weston, Environment, The Independent (UK), Sep 6, 2019

Click here to access the entire article.

---

Articles Linked to on Facebook

Sun Sep 1, 2019

[On vacation.]

Mon Sep 2, 2019

• Those Hurricane Maps Don’t Mean What You Think They Mean, Opinion by by Alberto Cairo with Tala Schlossberg, Sunday Review, New York Times, Sept 1, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian is a powerful Category 4 hurricane — pummeling the Bahamas and heading "dangerously close" to Florida by Brian Resnick, Energy & Environment, Vox, Sep 2, 2019
• 'My sister says global warming is a lie. How do I talk to her?' by Sarah Peach (Ask Sarah), Yale Clime Connections, Sep 2, 2019
• A Missing Link in Predicting Hurricane Damage by Donatella Pasqualini, Observations, Scientific American, Aug 30, 2019
• The Group Raising An NRA-Style ‘Army Of Environmental Super Voters’ Is Expanding by Alexander C Kaufman, Politics, HuffPost, Sep 1, 2019

Tue Sep 3, 2019

• ‘It’s Really Close’: How the Amazon Rainforest Could Self-Destruct by Max Fisher, The Interpreter, New York Times, Aug 30, 2019
• Where Is the Amazon Rainforest Vanishing? Not Just in Brazil by Simon Romero, World, New York Times, Aug 30, 2019
• Floods wreaking havoc on Great Lakes region fueled by climate crisis by Tom Perkins, Environment, Guardian, Sep 3, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian Finally Moving Again; Hurricane Watch Extended into North Carolina, Hurricane Center, The Weather Channel, Sep 3, 2019
• Why Are Hurricanes Like Dorian Stalling, and Is Global Warming Involved? by Bob Berwyn, InsideClimate News, Sep 3, 2019
• As Category 5 Dorian Devastates, Pope Francis Urges World to Act Fast on Climate Emergency by Andrea Germanos, Common Dreams, Sep 3, 2019
• Do the Brazil Amazon fires justify environmental interventionism?, Opinion by Lawrence Douglas, Comment is Free, Guardian, Aug 31, 2019
• How much destruction is needed for us to take climate change seriously?, Opinion by Kate Arnoff, Comment is Free, Guardian, Sep 3, 2019

Wed Sep 4, 2019

• Hurricane Dorian Is Not a Freak Storm by Rachel Gutman, Science, The Atlantic Magazine, Sep 3, 2019
• Local UK Governments Must Enact Climate Plans or Face Legal Action, Law Group Warns by Karen Savage, Climate Liability News, Sep 3, 2019
• As Hurricane Dorian skirts the Florida and Georgia coasts, a landfall in the Carolinas is not yet out of the question by Christina Maxouris, CNN, Sep 4, 2019
• CNN is giving 2020 Democrats 7 hours to talk about climate change by Umair Irfan, Politics & Policy, Vox, Sep 3, 2019
• Global heating made Hurricane Dorian bigger, wetter – and more deadly, Opinion by Michael Mann & Andrew E Dressler, Comment is Free, Guardian, Sep 4, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian’s path could slow the Gulf Stream, causing sea level rise on SC coast by Tony Bartelme, Hurricane, Charleston Post & Courier, Sep 3, 2019
• Democrats propose spending trillions fighting climate change by Juana Summers & Ellen Knickmeyer, AP News, Sep 4, 2019
• The growing power and anger of climate change voters by Maeve Reston, CNN, Sep 4, 2019

Thu Sep 5, 2019

• Asia's growing coal use could negate global climate change progress, UN says by Patpicha Tanakasempipat, Reuters, Sep 4, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian destruction set to cost Bahamas 'up to billions' by , Beaumont, World, Guardian, Sep 4, 2019
• Big Ag Is Sabotaging Progress on Climate Change by Timothy A Wise,  Science, Wired, Aug 28, 2019
• What happened during CNN's climate town hall and what it means for 2020 by Stephen Collinson, CNN, Sep 5, 2019
• 6 winners and 3 losers from CNN’s climate town hall by Umair Irfan, David Roberts, Eliza Barclay, Ella Nilsen & Tara Golshan, Vox, Sep 5, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian Battering South Carolina, North Carolina With Flooding Rain, Storm Surge, High Winds, Tornadoes, Hurricane Central, The Weather Channel, Sep 5, 2019
• We watched all 7 hours of CNN’s climate town hall so you didn’t have to by Dan Zaks, Style, Washington Post, Sep 5, 2019
• Oil and gas companies undermining climate goals, says report by Jillian Ambrose, Environment, Guardian, Sep 5, 2019

Fri Sep 6, 2019

• Solar power could replace all US hydro dams using ‘just 13% of the space’ by Josh Gabbatiss, Carbon Brief, Aug 26, 2019
• Climate apartheid will only lead to more tragedies in the Mediterranean, Opinion by Carola Rackete, Comment is Free, Guardian, Sep 4, 2019
• Bahamas official warns people to prepare for the 'unimaginable' as hurricane death toll rises to 30 by Madeline Holcombe & Dakin Andone, CNN, Sep 6, 2019
• Bill McKibben: This Climate Strike Is Part of the Disruption We Need, Opinion by Bill McKibben, YES! Magazine, Sep 3, 2019
• Why methane emissions matter to climate change: 5 questions answered by Anthony J. Marchese & Dan Zimmerle, Environment & Energy, The Conversation US, Sep 4, 2019
• SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth by Evan & jg, Skeptical Science, Sep 5, 2019
• Media reaction: Amazon fires and climate change by Daisy Dunne & Robert McSweeney, Carbon Brief, Aug 27, 2019

Sat Sep 7, 2019

• Scientists monitoring new marine heat wave off B.C. coast similar to 'the Blob' by Rhianna Schmunk, Canada, British Columbia, CBC News, Sep 5, 2019
• Drought deepens as 'very dry winter' combines with record heat by Peter Hannam, Environment, Sydney Morning Herald, Sep 2, 2019
• The Bahamas' death toll is rising as 70,000 residents left homeless by Hurricane Dorian seek food and shelter by Victor Blackwell, Paula Newton & Christina Maxouris, CNN, Sep 7, 2019
• Dorian Makes Landfall at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina; Canada is Next by Jeff Masters, Category 6, Weather Underground, Sep 6, 2019
• The air above Antarctica is suddenly getting warmer – here’s what it means for Australia by Harry Hendon, Andrew B. Watkins, Eun-Pa Lim & Griffith Young , The Conversation AU, Sep 6, 2019
• Hundreds of climate sceptics to mount international campaign to stop net-zero targets being made law by Phoebe Weston, Environment, The Independent (UK), Sep 6, 2019
• Tourists and developers love Charleston. So do hurricanes. by Stephanie Hunt, Post Everything, Washington Post, Sep 5, 2019

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2PUFEeW

SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth

Tag Line

Heavenly bodies regularly cause sea level to change by 0.5 to 120 m (2 to 400 ft).
Human bodies can cause sea level to change by 60 m (200 ft).

Elevator Statement

You’ve heard it said, “The climate is always changing.” What does that mean?

If someone said, “Mr. Smith is always falling down”, you would assume that Mr. Smith is unstable.

When you hear the phrase “The climate is always changing,” you might think, “I wonder why the climate is so unstable and always changing?” On 100,000-year cycles the global average temperature varies by 5°C, which causes variation in sea level of 120 m (400 ft). That is a lot!

These massive, 120-m glacial tides are caused by heavenly bodies that are hundreds of millions of miles away, tugging on what appears to be a very sensitive environmental system, causing regular, massive changes.

Is it possible that 8,000,000,000 human bodies pushing hard on this same, sensitive environmental system could cause a similar effect?

Climate Science

The tides of Earth include …

• Daily tides: Controlled by daily changes in the alignment of the Earth, Moon, and the Sun.
• Spring tides: Higher than daily tides, and occurring every 14 days when the gravitational forces of the Sun and the Moon are aligned.
• King tides: Higher than Spring tides, and occurring once a year when the Earth is at perihelion (orbit of Earth closest to the Sun) and the moon is at perigee (orbit of Moon closest to the Earth).
• Glacial “tides”¹: Fluctuating sea level up to 120 m (400 ft), occurring over 100,000-year cycles and primarily influenced by the effects of Jupiter and Saturn on the orbital dynamics of the Earth.

The Sun and Moon pull on the oceans, causing bulges in their shape that cause local fluctuations of sea level.

Jupiter and Saturn pull on the Earth, causing bulges and wobbles in Earth’s orbit around the Sun. The influence on Earth’s orbital dynamics caused by Jupiter and Saturn are called Milankovitch cycles, named after a Serbian mathematician, Milutin Milankovitch.²  Because the orbits of planets are very regular, the Milankovitch cycles cause bulges and wobbles in Earth’s orbit that operate over 20,000, 40,000, and 100,000 years. The Milankovitch cycles drive the current ice-age variations.³

Changes in the orbital dynamics caused by Milankovitch cycles affect the distribution of sunlight between the northern and southern hemispheres. When the northern hemisphere receives less sunlight, large glaciers form over North America and Europe. The water used to form the large glaciers comes from the oceans, causing sea level to drop globally by up to 120 m. When the northern hemisphere receives more sunlight the glaciers melt, and sea level rises. The driver of these massive changes is not the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn, but rather feedbacks that are triggered by Jupiter and Saturn.

What are feedbacks? Speak into a microphone connected to an amplifier set on high-gain. Your voice into the microphone triggers a set of feedbacks that repeatedly amplify your original words until a loud squeal comes out of the speakers. Your voice does not cause the squeal, but triggers a set of feedbacks, which in turn cause the squeal.⁴ A similar process occurs during Milankovitch cycles where a small change in the orbit of the Earth causes a small amount of warming, which triggers feedbacks that eventually lead to large changes in CO₂, temperature, and sea level.⁵

The sequence of events of how Jupiter and Saturn trigger 120-m sea-level change is⁶

• Jupiter and Saturn affect Earth’s orbital dynamics, changing the energy distribution between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, which causes a small temperature change in the Northern Hemisphere.
• This small temperature change in the Northern Hemisphere causes about a 10-ppm increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration
• Feedbacks cause the 10-ppm CO₂ increase to further increase the temperature, which causes a further increase in CO₂, which causes a further increase of temperature, …

This cycle goes on until the initial, direct effects combined with the feedbacks cause …

•    CO₂ to change by 100 ppm …
•    Which changes global, average temperature by 5°C …
•    Which causes sea level to change by 120 m

The direct effect of Jupiter and Saturn is to cause a 10-ppm change in CO₂. The feedbacks in Earth’s climate do the rest to cause the 100-ppm CO₂ change.

If planets 100’s of millions of miles away can trigger 120-m tides, is there anything that human civilization is doing today that could trigger feedbacks in our sensitive, unstable environment?

By burning fossil fuels we’ve increased CO₂ by 130 ppm in 200 years, 13 times the initial CO₂ pulse during an ice-age cycle.

We live in an era of Earth’s history with very sensitive climate-feedback dynamics.

CO₂ is currently increasing about 2.5 ppm/year. This represents a continuous, hard push on the environment.

What kind of feedbacks will we trigger if we keep pushing hard on our sensitive climate system?

Footnotes

1. “Glacial tide” is a term we define for this analogy. It does not refer to direct, tidal influences such as the Sun and the Moon exert on the oceans, but simply refers to the fact that in the same way that the relative orbital dynamics of the Sun, Moon, and the Earth cause periodic sea-level fluctuations, the relative orbital dynamics of Jupiter, Saturn, Sun, and Earth cause periodic sea-level fluctuations. The Sun and Moon cause tidal fluctuations with a period of about 12 hours and simply cause a local redistribution of water up and down a local shoreline, whereas Jupiter and Saturn cause fluctuations with a period of about 20,000, 40,000, and 100,000 years, and which redistribute water between the oceans and the land.

2. https://www.skepticalscience.com/Milankovitch.html

3. Read here for information about ice ages and glaciation cycles.

4. The feedback process is something like: small soundwave (trigger) into microphone -> electrical signal -> amplified electrical signal -> louder sound wave out of speaker and back into microphone -> stronger electrical signal -> amplified stronger electrical signal -> really big sound wave out of speaker and back into microphone -> …

5. https://skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm

6. The dynamics of how the distribution of sunlight between the northern and southern hemispheres causes the complex feedback between CO2 and temperature leading to large-scale glacial formation/retreat is beyond the scope of this analogy. For a summary of the link between Milankovitch cycles and ice sheet growth please read here. The scientific paper referenced in this summary article is available in this Nature article. Also read here for additional information about the effects of positive and negative feedbacks that control glaciation.

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2HN3kLK

Tag Line

Heavenly bodies regularly cause sea level to change by 0.5 to 120 m (2 to 400 ft).
Human bodies can cause sea level to change by 60 m (200 ft).

Elevator Statement

You’ve heard it said, “The climate is always changing.” What does that mean?

If someone said, “Mr. Smith is always falling down”, you would assume that Mr. Smith is unstable.

When you hear the phrase “The climate is always changing,” you might think, “I wonder why the climate is so unstable and always changing?” On 100,000-year cycles the global average temperature varies by 5°C, which causes variation in sea level of 120 m (400 ft). That is a lot!

These massive, 120-m glacial tides are caused by heavenly bodies that are hundreds of millions of miles away, tugging on what appears to be a very sensitive environmental system, causing regular, massive changes.

Is it possible that 8,000,000,000 human bodies pushing hard on this same, sensitive environmental system could cause a similar effect?

Climate Science

The tides of Earth include …

• Daily tides: Controlled by daily changes in the alignment of the Earth, Moon, and the Sun.
• Spring tides: Higher than daily tides, and occurring every 14 days when the gravitational forces of the Sun and the Moon are aligned.
• King tides: Higher than Spring tides, and occurring once a year when the Earth is at perihelion (orbit of Earth closest to the Sun) and the moon is at perigee (orbit of Moon closest to the Earth).
• Glacial “tides”¹: Fluctuating sea level up to 120 m (400 ft), occurring over 100,000-year cycles and primarily influenced by the effects of Jupiter and Saturn on the orbital dynamics of the Earth.

The Sun and Moon pull on the oceans, causing bulges in their shape that cause local fluctuations of sea level.

Jupiter and Saturn pull on the Earth, causing bulges and wobbles in Earth’s orbit around the Sun. The influence on Earth’s orbital dynamics caused by Jupiter and Saturn are called Milankovitch cycles, named after a Serbian mathematician, Milutin Milankovitch.²  Because the orbits of planets are very regular, the Milankovitch cycles cause bulges and wobbles in Earth’s orbit that operate over 20,000, 40,000, and 100,000 years. The Milankovitch cycles drive the current ice-age variations.³

Changes in the orbital dynamics caused by Milankovitch cycles affect the distribution of sunlight between the northern and southern hemispheres. When the northern hemisphere receives less sunlight, large glaciers form over North America and Europe. The water used to form the large glaciers comes from the oceans, causing sea level to drop globally by up to 120 m. When the northern hemisphere receives more sunlight the glaciers melt, and sea level rises. The driver of these massive changes is not the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn, but rather feedbacks that are triggered by Jupiter and Saturn.

What are feedbacks? Speak into a microphone connected to an amplifier set on high-gain. Your voice into the microphone triggers a set of feedbacks that repeatedly amplify your original words until a loud squeal comes out of the speakers. Your voice does not cause the squeal, but triggers a set of feedbacks, which in turn cause the squeal.⁴ A similar process occurs during Milankovitch cycles where a small change in the orbit of the Earth causes a small amount of warming, which triggers feedbacks that eventually lead to large changes in CO₂, temperature, and sea level.⁵

The sequence of events of how Jupiter and Saturn trigger 120-m sea-level change is⁶

• Jupiter and Saturn affect Earth’s orbital dynamics, changing the energy distribution between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, which causes a small temperature change in the Northern Hemisphere.
• This small temperature change in the Northern Hemisphere causes about a 10-ppm increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration
• Feedbacks cause the 10-ppm CO₂ increase to further increase the temperature, which causes a further increase in CO₂, which causes a further increase of temperature, …

This cycle goes on until the initial, direct effects combined with the feedbacks cause …

•    CO₂ to change by 100 ppm …
•    Which changes global, average temperature by 5°C …
•    Which causes sea level to change by 120 m

The direct effect of Jupiter and Saturn is to cause a 10-ppm change in CO₂. The feedbacks in Earth’s climate do the rest to cause the 100-ppm CO₂ change.

If planets 100’s of millions of miles away can trigger 120-m tides, is there anything that human civilization is doing today that could trigger feedbacks in our sensitive, unstable environment?

By burning fossil fuels we’ve increased CO₂ by 130 ppm in 200 years, 13 times the initial CO₂ pulse during an ice-age cycle.

We live in an era of Earth’s history with very sensitive climate-feedback dynamics.

CO₂ is currently increasing about 2.5 ppm/year. This represents a continuous, hard push on the environment.

What kind of feedbacks will we trigger if we keep pushing hard on our sensitive climate system?

Footnotes

1. “Glacial tide” is a term we define for this analogy. It does not refer to direct, tidal influences such as the Sun and the Moon exert on the oceans, but simply refers to the fact that in the same way that the relative orbital dynamics of the Sun, Moon, and the Earth cause periodic sea-level fluctuations, the relative orbital dynamics of Jupiter, Saturn, Sun, and Earth cause periodic sea-level fluctuations. The Sun and Moon cause tidal fluctuations with a period of about 12 hours and simply cause a local redistribution of water up and down a local shoreline, whereas Jupiter and Saturn cause fluctuations with a period of about 20,000, 40,000, and 100,000 years, and which redistribute water between the oceans and the land.

2. https://www.skepticalscience.com/Milankovitch.html

3. Read here for information about ice ages and glaciation cycles.

4. The feedback process is something like: small soundwave (trigger) into microphone -> electrical signal -> amplified electrical signal -> louder sound wave out of speaker and back into microphone -> stronger electrical signal -> amplified stronger electrical signal -> really big sound wave out of speaker and back into microphone -> …

5. https://skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm

6. The dynamics of how the distribution of sunlight between the northern and southern hemispheres causes the complex feedback between CO2 and temperature leading to large-scale glacial formation/retreat is beyond the scope of this analogy. For a summary of the link between Milankovitch cycles and ice sheet growth please read here. The scientific paper referenced in this summary article is available in this Nature article. Also read here for additional information about the effects of positive and negative feedbacks that control glaciation.

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2HN3kLK

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #35, 2019

62 articles, with 11 freely available

Nearer and dearer

Emerging research on "psychological proximity" and climate change appears to be identifying relationships of physical and temporal distance of human thinkers to climate change effects with more or less acceptance of the reality of global warming and  interest in addressing the problem. In a variation on that theme, this week's article by Dannenberg and Zitzelberger Climate experts’ views on geoengineering depend on their beliefs about climate change impacts appears to reveal an intriguing feature of expert thinking on geoengineering:

We find that respondents who expect severe global climate change damages and who have little confidence in current mitigation efforts are more opposed to geoengineering than respondents who are less pessimistic about global damages and mitigation efforts. However, we also find that respondents are more supportive of geoengineering when they expect severe climate change damages in their home country than when they have more optimistic expectations for the home country. Thus, when respondents are more personally affected, their views are closer to what rational cost–benefit analyses predict. 

Articles: 

Biological effects of global warming

Shortened temperature‐relevant period of spring leaf‐out in temperate‐zone trees

Diverging phenological responses of Arctic seabirds to an earlier spring

How Eddy Covariance Flux Measurements Have Contributed to Our Understanding of Global Change Biology

Nearshore coral growth declining on the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System

Integrating patterns of thermal tolerance and phenotypic plasticity with population genetics to improve understanding of vulnerability to warming in a widespread copepod

The functional role of temperate forest understorey vegetation in a changing world

Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus)

Divergent shifts in peak photosynthesis timing of temperate and alpine grasslands in China

Global warming threatens conservation status of alpine EU habitat types in the European Eastern Alps (open access)

Insights from present distribution of an alpine mammal Royle’s pika ( Ochotona roylei ) to predict future climate change impacts in the Himalaya

Refugia under threat: Mass bleaching of coral assemblages in high‐latitude eastern Australia

Nitrogen limitation inhibits marine diatom adaptation to high temperatures

A global ‘greening’ of coastal dunes: An integrated consequence of climate change?

Humans deal with our global warming

A carbon price by another name may seem sweeter: Consumers prefer upstream offsets to downstream taxes

Hungry cities: how local food self-sufficiency relates to climate change, diets, and urbanisation (open access)

Tracing country commitment to Indigenous peoples in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Priming critical thinking: Simple interventions limit the influence of fake news about climate change on Facebook

“Bring fishermen at the center”: the value of local knowledge for understanding fisheries resources and climate-related changes in Lake Tanganyika

Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of Mumbai city, India

Derivation of a climate change adaptation index and assessing determinants and barriers to adaptation among farming households in Nepal

Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change

Social cohesion and passive adaptation in relation to climate change and disease

More than meets the eye: a longitudinal analysis of climate change imagery in the print media (open access)

Could Bitcoin emissions push global warming above 2 °C?

Implausible projections overestimate near-term Bitcoin CO₂ emissions

Climate change impacts on banana yields around the world

Climate experts’ views on geoengineering depend on their beliefs about climate change impacts

Climate and food goals

Potential influence of climate change on grain self‐sufficiency at the country level considering adaptation measures (open access)

Towards calibrated language for effectively communicating the results of extreme event attribution studies (open access)

Intensification of thermal risk in Mediterranean climates: evidence from the comparison of rational and simple indices

Extreme events and climate adaptation‐mitigation linkages: Understanding low‐carbon transitions in the era of global urbanization

Climate change, natural hazards, and relocation: insights from Nabukadra and Navuniivi villages in Fiji

Enhancing the value of adaptation reporting as a driver for action: lessons from the UK (open access)

Policy implications for achieving the carbon emission reduction target by 2030 in Japan-Analysis based on a bilevel equilibrium model

Modelling of energy consumption and carbon emission from the building construction sector in China, a process-based LCA approach

Expansion of coccidioidomycosis endemic regions in the United States in response to climate change (open access)

Physical science of global warming

The Mid‐Summer Drought over Mexico and Central America in the 21st Century

Greenhouse gas flux from stormwater ponds in southeastern Virginia (USA)

A canary in the Southern Ocean

Enhanced oceanic CO₂ uptake along the rapidly changing West Antarctic Peninsula

Impacts of Ocean Warming, Sea Level Rise and Coastline Management on Storm Surge in a Semi‐enclosed Bay

Impacts of climate change on volcanic stratospheric injections: comparison of 1D and 3D plume model projections

A comparative analysis of anthropogenic CO2 emissions at city level using OCO‐2 observations: A global perspective (open access)

The Carbon Balance of the Southeastern U.S. Forest Sector as Driven by Recent Disturbance Trends

Constraining Climate Model Projections of Regional Precipitation Change

Analysis of the atmospheric water budget for elucidating the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change

Temperature-driven rise in extreme sub-hourly rainfall

POLSTRACC: Airborne experiment for studying the Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate with the high-altitude long-range research aircraft HALO (open access)

A significant bias of Tmax and Tmin average temperature and its trend

Causes for the Century-Long Decline in Colorado River Flow

The longest homogeneous series of grape harvest dates, Beaune 1354–2018, and its significance for the understanding of past and present climate (open access)

Ad hoc estimation of glacier contributions to sea-level rise from latest glaciological observations (open access)

Climate change study for the meteorological variables in the Barak River basin in North-East India

Snow and Climate: Feedbacks, Drivers, and Indices of Change

Stabilization of dense Antarctic water supply to the Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

Modeling of global warming

A Systematic Approach to Assessing the Sources and Global Impacts of Errors in Climate Models

LongRunMIP – motivation and design for a large collection of millennial-length AO-GCM simulations (open access)

Suggestions

Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

The previous edition of Skeptical Science new research may be found here. 

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2ZvlufF

62 articles, with 11 freely available

Nearer and dearer

Emerging research on "psychological proximity" and climate change appears to be identifying relationships of physical and temporal distance of human thinkers to climate change effects with more or less acceptance of the reality of global warming and  interest in addressing the problem. In a variation on that theme, this week's article by Dannenberg and Zitzelberger Climate experts’ views on geoengineering depend on their beliefs about climate change impacts appears to reveal an intriguing feature of expert thinking on geoengineering:

We find that respondents who expect severe global climate change damages and who have little confidence in current mitigation efforts are more opposed to geoengineering than respondents who are less pessimistic about global damages and mitigation efforts. However, we also find that respondents are more supportive of geoengineering when they expect severe climate change damages in their home country than when they have more optimistic expectations for the home country. Thus, when respondents are more personally affected, their views are closer to what rational cost–benefit analyses predict. 

Articles: 

Biological effects of global warming

Shortened temperature‐relevant period of spring leaf‐out in temperate‐zone trees

Diverging phenological responses of Arctic seabirds to an earlier spring

How Eddy Covariance Flux Measurements Have Contributed to Our Understanding of Global Change Biology

Nearshore coral growth declining on the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System

Integrating patterns of thermal tolerance and phenotypic plasticity with population genetics to improve understanding of vulnerability to warming in a widespread copepod

The functional role of temperate forest understorey vegetation in a changing world

Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus)

Divergent shifts in peak photosynthesis timing of temperate and alpine grasslands in China

Global warming threatens conservation status of alpine EU habitat types in the European Eastern Alps (open access)

Insights from present distribution of an alpine mammal Royle’s pika ( Ochotona roylei ) to predict future climate change impacts in the Himalaya

Refugia under threat: Mass bleaching of coral assemblages in high‐latitude eastern Australia

Nitrogen limitation inhibits marine diatom adaptation to high temperatures

A global ‘greening’ of coastal dunes: An integrated consequence of climate change?

Humans deal with our global warming

A carbon price by another name may seem sweeter: Consumers prefer upstream offsets to downstream taxes

Hungry cities: how local food self-sufficiency relates to climate change, diets, and urbanisation (open access)

Tracing country commitment to Indigenous peoples in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Priming critical thinking: Simple interventions limit the influence of fake news about climate change on Facebook

“Bring fishermen at the center”: the value of local knowledge for understanding fisheries resources and climate-related changes in Lake Tanganyika

Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of Mumbai city, India

Derivation of a climate change adaptation index and assessing determinants and barriers to adaptation among farming households in Nepal

Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change

Social cohesion and passive adaptation in relation to climate change and disease

More than meets the eye: a longitudinal analysis of climate change imagery in the print media (open access)

Could Bitcoin emissions push global warming above 2 °C?

Implausible projections overestimate near-term Bitcoin CO₂ emissions

Climate change impacts on banana yields around the world

Climate experts’ views on geoengineering depend on their beliefs about climate change impacts

Climate and food goals

Potential influence of climate change on grain self‐sufficiency at the country level considering adaptation measures (open access)

Towards calibrated language for effectively communicating the results of extreme event attribution studies (open access)

Intensification of thermal risk in Mediterranean climates: evidence from the comparison of rational and simple indices

Extreme events and climate adaptation‐mitigation linkages: Understanding low‐carbon transitions in the era of global urbanization

Climate change, natural hazards, and relocation: insights from Nabukadra and Navuniivi villages in Fiji

Enhancing the value of adaptation reporting as a driver for action: lessons from the UK (open access)

Policy implications for achieving the carbon emission reduction target by 2030 in Japan-Analysis based on a bilevel equilibrium model

Modelling of energy consumption and carbon emission from the building construction sector in China, a process-based LCA approach

Expansion of coccidioidomycosis endemic regions in the United States in response to climate change (open access)

Physical science of global warming

The Mid‐Summer Drought over Mexico and Central America in the 21st Century

Greenhouse gas flux from stormwater ponds in southeastern Virginia (USA)

A canary in the Southern Ocean

Enhanced oceanic CO₂ uptake along the rapidly changing West Antarctic Peninsula

Impacts of Ocean Warming, Sea Level Rise and Coastline Management on Storm Surge in a Semi‐enclosed Bay

Impacts of climate change on volcanic stratospheric injections: comparison of 1D and 3D plume model projections

A comparative analysis of anthropogenic CO2 emissions at city level using OCO‐2 observations: A global perspective (open access)

The Carbon Balance of the Southeastern U.S. Forest Sector as Driven by Recent Disturbance Trends

Constraining Climate Model Projections of Regional Precipitation Change

Analysis of the atmospheric water budget for elucidating the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change

Temperature-driven rise in extreme sub-hourly rainfall

POLSTRACC: Airborne experiment for studying the Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate with the high-altitude long-range research aircraft HALO (open access)

A significant bias of Tmax and Tmin average temperature and its trend

Causes for the Century-Long Decline in Colorado River Flow

The longest homogeneous series of grape harvest dates, Beaune 1354–2018, and its significance for the understanding of past and present climate (open access)

Ad hoc estimation of glacier contributions to sea-level rise from latest glaciological observations (open access)

Climate change study for the meteorological variables in the Barak River basin in North-East India

Snow and Climate: Feedbacks, Drivers, and Indices of Change

Stabilization of dense Antarctic water supply to the Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

Modeling of global warming

A Systematic Approach to Assessing the Sources and Global Impacts of Errors in Climate Models

LongRunMIP – motivation and design for a large collection of millennial-length AO-GCM simulations (open access)

Suggestions

Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

The previous edition of Skeptical Science new research may be found here. 

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/2ZvlufF

2019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #35

A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Aug 25 through Sat, Aug 31, 2019

Editor's Pick

Hurricane Dorian is a powerful Category 4 hurricane — pummeling the Bahamas and heading “dangerously close” to Florida

A worst-case scenario is playing out the Bahamas. Florida and the Southeast US may be spared the worst. But uncertainties remain.

Hurricane Dorian on September 2. NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

On Monday, Hurricane Dorian slammed into the Abacos Islands in the Bahamas as an incredibly powerful Category 5 hurricane, with howling winds in excess of 185 mph and with gusts up to 220 mph. The storm brought with it a surge — coastal flooding — of 18-to-23 feet above normal tide.

Dorian is estimated to be the second-most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean, and ties the record for the most powerful storm to make landfall, according to the National Weather Service. Preliminary reports from the Abacos Islands show extreme devastation.

The storm weakened slightly and was (very slowly) moving through Grand Bahama Island on Monday, with winds gusting over 200 mph and 18 to 23 feet of coastal flooding. Plus, the forward motion of the storm nearly stalled, moving west at just 1 mph. The slower a storm moves, the more time it has to destroy communities in its path. It’s a worst-case scenario for a hurricane.

Hurricane Dorian is a powerful Category 4 hurricane — pummeling the Bahamas and heading "dangerously close" to Florida by Brian Resnick, Energy & Environment, Vox, Sep 2, 2019

Click here to access the entire article as posted on Vox. 

---

Links posted on Facebook

Sun Aug 25, 2019

• Macron: ‘All G7 powers must help Brazil fight raging Amazon fires’ by Angelique Chrisafis & Heather Stewart, World, Observer/Guardian, Aug 24, 2019
• A Month Ahead of Global Climate Strike, Thousands Pledge to Attend Rallies Across Planet to 'Turn Up the Political Heat' and Demand Action by Julia Conley, Common Dreams, Aug 20, 2019
• There is no silver lining': why Alaska fires are a glimpse of our climate future by Elizabeth Harball, Cities, Guardian, Aug 23, 2019
• US Set to Blow Other Countries Away With 'Staggering' Scale of New Oil and Gas Production by Andre Germanos,Common Dreams, Aug 21, 2019
• Climate scientists may not be the best communicators of climate threats by Risa Palm & Toby W Bolsen, The Conversation US, Aug 21, 2019
• David Koch Was the Ultimate Climate Change Denier, Opinion by Christopher Leonard, New York Times, Aug 23, 2019
• G7 can’t turn a blind eye to ecocide in the Amazon by Jonathan Watts, Environment, Observer/Guardian, Aug 25, 2019
• EXPLAINER-Why are the Amazon fires sparking a crisis for Brazil - and the world? by Jake Spring, Reuters, Aug 25, 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019

• It’s not just Brazil’s Amazon rainforest that’s ablaze – Bolivian fires are threatening people and wildlife by Claire FR Wordley, The Conversation UK, Aug 23, 2019
• Photos: major wildfires have ignited across Europe, Asia, and Latin America by Umair Irfan and Kainaz Amaria, Energy & Environment, Vox, Aug 22, 2019
• After the wildfire: treating the mental health crisis triggered by climate change by Dean Kuipers, World, Guardian, Aug 26, 2019
• Donald Trump's story on skipping the G7 climate meeting makes no sense, Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN, Aug 26, 2019
• G7 to release emergency aid for Amazon forest fire crisis by Crispian Balmer & Marine Pennetier, Reuters, Aug 26, 2019
• The Hidden Figure in Climate Science by Dawn Starin, Voices, Scientific American, Aug 26, 2019
• How extreme weather conditions could last longer due to climate change, Guest Post by Peter Pfleiderer, Kai Kornhuber, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Dim Coumou, Carbon Brief, Aug 19, 2019
• Amazon fires are destructive, but they aren’t depleting Earth’s oxygen supply by Scott Denning, The Conversation US, Aug 26, 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019

• Climate change is altering winter precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere by David Hosansky, NCAR & UCAR News, Aug 26, 2019
• Interfaith group pledges to use religion’s influence to address climate change, poverty by Eric J Lyman, Religious New Service, Aug 26, 2019
• Brazil officials failed to act after warning of 'fire day’ in Amazon, prosecutors say by Dom Phillips, World, Guardian, Aug 26, 2019
• What Does '12 Years to Act on Climate Change' (Now 11 Years) Really Mean? by Bob Berwyn, InsideClimate News, Aug 27, 2019
• Dorian Growing More Organized as it Heads for Puerto Rico by Jeff Masters, Category 6, Weather Underground, Aug 27, 2019
• With New Business Roundtable Statement, Are 200 CEOs Stuck in Yesterday’s Corporate Sustainability? by Kevin Moss & Eliot Metzger, World Resources Institute, Aug 22, 2019
• The Glimmer of a Climate New World Order by David Wallace-Wells, Intelligencer, New York Magazine, Aug 26, 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019

• Brazil’s Bolsonaro on the Environment, in His Own Words by Mariana Simões, World, New York Times, Aug 27, 2019
• Acid oceans are shrinking plankton, fuelling faster climate change by Katherina Petrou & Daniel Nielsen, The Conversation AU, Aug 27, 2019
• 'If A Kid Says Help, You Help': Adults Urged to Join Upcoming Global Climate Strike by Julia Conley, Common Dreams, Aug 27, 2019
• IPCC's land report showed we're entering an era of damage control by Dana Nuccitelli, Skeptical Science, Aug 26, 2019
• Dorian intensifies to a hurricane over U.S. Virgin Islands and is a growing threat to Southeast U.S. by Matthew Cappucci, Andrew Freedman & Jason Samenow, Capital Weather Gang, Washington Post, Aug 28, 2019
• Michael Shellenberger’s sloppy Forbes diatribe deceives on Amazon fires, Commentary by Rhett A Butler, Mongabay, Aug 27, 2019
• How should we talk about what’s happening to our planet? by Dan Zak, Style, Washington Post, Aug 27, 2019
• Why the Amazon doesn’t really produce 20% of the world’s oxygen by Katarina Zimmer, Environment, National Graphic, Aug 28, 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019

• Why the Arctic is smouldering by Zoe Cormier, Future, BBC News, Aug 27, 2019
• New Elevation Measure Shows Climate Change Could Quickly Swamp the Mekong Delta by Charles Schmidt, Scientific American, Aug 28, 2019
• Greta Thunberg 'wants a concrete plan, not just nice words' to fight climate crisis by Oliver Milman, Environment, Guardian, Aug 29, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian forecast to reach Florida as a Category 4 storm on Labor Day by Jason Hanna, Madeline Holcombe & Paul P. Murphy, CNN, Aug 29, 2019
• The Misogyny of Climate Deniers by Martin Gelin, The New Republic, Aug 28, 2019
• Welcome to the US, Greta. With your help we can save the planet and ourselves, Opinion by Rebecca Solnit, Comment is Free, Guardian, Aug 29, 2019
• Climate crisis: Rising sea levels and catastrophic storm surges could displace 280m people, UN warns by Harry Cockburn, Environment, Independent, Aug 29, 2019
• The Amazon, Siberia, Indonesia: A World of Fire by Kendra Pierre-Louis, New York Times, Aug 28, 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019

• Fracking may be a bigger climate problem than we thought by David Roberts, Energy & Environment, Vox, Aug 29, 2019
• Why it's premature to declare coal dead by Karen Kirk, Yale Climate Connections, Aug 28, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian could hit during King Tide, and Miami is preparing to flood by Alex Harris & Joey Flechas, Weather, Miami Herald, Aug 30, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian could impact the 'entirety of Florida' when it makes landfall as a monster storm by Madeline Holcombe, Rosa Flores & Emanuella Grinberg, CNN, Aug 30, 2019
• China CO2 emission targets at risk from U.S. trade war - official by Muyu Xu & David Stanway, Reuters, Aug 30, 2019
• Hundreds of young people join Greta Thunberg in climate protest outside UN by Miranda Bryant, Environment, Guardian, Aug 30, 2019
• Worst of wildfires still to come’ despite Brazil claiming crisis is under control by Tom Phillips, World, Guardian, Aug 28, 2019
• A teachable moment: educators must join students in demanding climate justice, Opinion by Jonathan Isham & Lee Smithey, Comment is Free, Guardian, Aug 30, 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019

[On Vacation]

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/311m9T7

A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Aug 25 through Sat, Aug 31, 2019

Editor's Pick

Hurricane Dorian is a powerful Category 4 hurricane — pummeling the Bahamas and heading “dangerously close” to Florida

A worst-case scenario is playing out the Bahamas. Florida and the Southeast US may be spared the worst. But uncertainties remain.

Hurricane Dorian on September 2. NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

On Monday, Hurricane Dorian slammed into the Abacos Islands in the Bahamas as an incredibly powerful Category 5 hurricane, with howling winds in excess of 185 mph and with gusts up to 220 mph. The storm brought with it a surge — coastal flooding — of 18-to-23 feet above normal tide.

Dorian is estimated to be the second-most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean, and ties the record for the most powerful storm to make landfall, according to the National Weather Service. Preliminary reports from the Abacos Islands show extreme devastation.

The storm weakened slightly and was (very slowly) moving through Grand Bahama Island on Monday, with winds gusting over 200 mph and 18 to 23 feet of coastal flooding. Plus, the forward motion of the storm nearly stalled, moving west at just 1 mph. The slower a storm moves, the more time it has to destroy communities in its path. It’s a worst-case scenario for a hurricane.

Hurricane Dorian is a powerful Category 4 hurricane — pummeling the Bahamas and heading "dangerously close" to Florida by Brian Resnick, Energy & Environment, Vox, Sep 2, 2019

Click here to access the entire article as posted on Vox. 

---

Links posted on Facebook

Sun Aug 25, 2019

• Macron: ‘All G7 powers must help Brazil fight raging Amazon fires’ by Angelique Chrisafis & Heather Stewart, World, Observer/Guardian, Aug 24, 2019
• A Month Ahead of Global Climate Strike, Thousands Pledge to Attend Rallies Across Planet to 'Turn Up the Political Heat' and Demand Action by Julia Conley, Common Dreams, Aug 20, 2019
• There is no silver lining': why Alaska fires are a glimpse of our climate future by Elizabeth Harball, Cities, Guardian, Aug 23, 2019
• US Set to Blow Other Countries Away With 'Staggering' Scale of New Oil and Gas Production by Andre Germanos,Common Dreams, Aug 21, 2019
• Climate scientists may not be the best communicators of climate threats by Risa Palm & Toby W Bolsen, The Conversation US, Aug 21, 2019
• David Koch Was the Ultimate Climate Change Denier, Opinion by Christopher Leonard, New York Times, Aug 23, 2019
• G7 can’t turn a blind eye to ecocide in the Amazon by Jonathan Watts, Environment, Observer/Guardian, Aug 25, 2019
• EXPLAINER-Why are the Amazon fires sparking a crisis for Brazil - and the world? by Jake Spring, Reuters, Aug 25, 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019

• It’s not just Brazil’s Amazon rainforest that’s ablaze – Bolivian fires are threatening people and wildlife by Claire FR Wordley, The Conversation UK, Aug 23, 2019
• Photos: major wildfires have ignited across Europe, Asia, and Latin America by Umair Irfan and Kainaz Amaria, Energy & Environment, Vox, Aug 22, 2019
• After the wildfire: treating the mental health crisis triggered by climate change by Dean Kuipers, World, Guardian, Aug 26, 2019
• Donald Trump's story on skipping the G7 climate meeting makes no sense, Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN, Aug 26, 2019
• G7 to release emergency aid for Amazon forest fire crisis by Crispian Balmer & Marine Pennetier, Reuters, Aug 26, 2019
• The Hidden Figure in Climate Science by Dawn Starin, Voices, Scientific American, Aug 26, 2019
• How extreme weather conditions could last longer due to climate change, Guest Post by Peter Pfleiderer, Kai Kornhuber, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Dim Coumou, Carbon Brief, Aug 19, 2019
• Amazon fires are destructive, but they aren’t depleting Earth’s oxygen supply by Scott Denning, The Conversation US, Aug 26, 2019

Tue Aug 27, 2019

• Climate change is altering winter precipitation across the Northern Hemisphere by David Hosansky, NCAR & UCAR News, Aug 26, 2019
• Interfaith group pledges to use religion’s influence to address climate change, poverty by Eric J Lyman, Religious New Service, Aug 26, 2019
• Brazil officials failed to act after warning of 'fire day’ in Amazon, prosecutors say by Dom Phillips, World, Guardian, Aug 26, 2019
• What Does '12 Years to Act on Climate Change' (Now 11 Years) Really Mean? by Bob Berwyn, InsideClimate News, Aug 27, 2019
• Dorian Growing More Organized as it Heads for Puerto Rico by Jeff Masters, Category 6, Weather Underground, Aug 27, 2019
• With New Business Roundtable Statement, Are 200 CEOs Stuck in Yesterday’s Corporate Sustainability? by Kevin Moss & Eliot Metzger, World Resources Institute, Aug 22, 2019
• The Glimmer of a Climate New World Order by David Wallace-Wells, Intelligencer, New York Magazine, Aug 26, 2019

Wed Aug 28, 2019

• Brazil’s Bolsonaro on the Environment, in His Own Words by Mariana Simões, World, New York Times, Aug 27, 2019
• Acid oceans are shrinking plankton, fuelling faster climate change by Katherina Petrou & Daniel Nielsen, The Conversation AU, Aug 27, 2019
• 'If A Kid Says Help, You Help': Adults Urged to Join Upcoming Global Climate Strike by Julia Conley, Common Dreams, Aug 27, 2019
• IPCC's land report showed we're entering an era of damage control by Dana Nuccitelli, Skeptical Science, Aug 26, 2019
• Dorian intensifies to a hurricane over U.S. Virgin Islands and is a growing threat to Southeast U.S. by Matthew Cappucci, Andrew Freedman & Jason Samenow, Capital Weather Gang, Washington Post, Aug 28, 2019
• Michael Shellenberger’s sloppy Forbes diatribe deceives on Amazon fires, Commentary by Rhett A Butler, Mongabay, Aug 27, 2019
• How should we talk about what’s happening to our planet? by Dan Zak, Style, Washington Post, Aug 27, 2019
• Why the Amazon doesn’t really produce 20% of the world’s oxygen by Katarina Zimmer, Environment, National Graphic, Aug 28, 2019

Thu Aug 29, 2019

• Why the Arctic is smouldering by Zoe Cormier, Future, BBC News, Aug 27, 2019
• New Elevation Measure Shows Climate Change Could Quickly Swamp the Mekong Delta by Charles Schmidt, Scientific American, Aug 28, 2019
• Greta Thunberg 'wants a concrete plan, not just nice words' to fight climate crisis by Oliver Milman, Environment, Guardian, Aug 29, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian forecast to reach Florida as a Category 4 storm on Labor Day by Jason Hanna, Madeline Holcombe & Paul P. Murphy, CNN, Aug 29, 2019
• The Misogyny of Climate Deniers by Martin Gelin, The New Republic, Aug 28, 2019
• Welcome to the US, Greta. With your help we can save the planet and ourselves, Opinion by Rebecca Solnit, Comment is Free, Guardian, Aug 29, 2019
• Climate crisis: Rising sea levels and catastrophic storm surges could displace 280m people, UN warns by Harry Cockburn, Environment, Independent, Aug 29, 2019
• The Amazon, Siberia, Indonesia: A World of Fire by Kendra Pierre-Louis, New York Times, Aug 28, 2019

Fri Aug 30, 2019

• Fracking may be a bigger climate problem than we thought by David Roberts, Energy & Environment, Vox, Aug 29, 2019
• Why it's premature to declare coal dead by Karen Kirk, Yale Climate Connections, Aug 28, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian could hit during King Tide, and Miami is preparing to flood by Alex Harris & Joey Flechas, Weather, Miami Herald, Aug 30, 2019
• Hurricane Dorian could impact the 'entirety of Florida' when it makes landfall as a monster storm by Madeline Holcombe, Rosa Flores & Emanuella Grinberg, CNN, Aug 30, 2019
• China CO2 emission targets at risk from U.S. trade war - official by Muyu Xu & David Stanway, Reuters, Aug 30, 2019
• Hundreds of young people join Greta Thunberg in climate protest outside UN by Miranda Bryant, Environment, Guardian, Aug 30, 2019
• Worst of wildfires still to come’ despite Brazil claiming crisis is under control by Tom Phillips, World, Guardian, Aug 28, 2019
• A teachable moment: educators must join students in demanding climate justice, Opinion by Jonathan Isham & Lee Smithey, Comment is Free, Guardian, Aug 30, 2019

Sat Aug 31, 2019

[On Vacation]

from Skeptical Science https://ift.tt/311m9T7