I have not updated my model for predicting primary outcomes in the Democratic contest, but since the last few predictions were very accurate, I don’t feel the need to do so. However, I will before the California primary, just in case.
Meanwhile, my model suggests the following for today’s primaries.
Kentucky should be nearly a tie, though my model suggests that Sanders will get one more delegate than Clinton (Clinton: 27, Sanders: 28).
The model also suggests that Sanders will win in Oregon, Clinton: 24 and Sanders: 37.
There is very little polling in Kentucky, but the latest poll from early March has Clinton slightly ahead. I expect that to be wrong.
Kentucky will be interesting. Clinton has been campaigning fairly strongly there, with TV ads and a lot of hand shaking. Sanders has been campaigning very little there lately, but he was campaigning heavily up until just a couple of days ago.
In Oregon, there is also very little in the way of polls, but the one poll I’ve seen, from just a week ago, has Clinton winning handily.
You will remember that my model is based mainly on ethnicity, and Oregon is a white state, thus the predicted Sanders win. But Oregon is also way different than other states. Politically it is more liberal, and they vote by mail. Every resident of the state is automatically registered. So, Oregon may be the best state in the US to represent a truly democratic and open process. Some say this arrangement favors Sanders, but in fact, it seems to favor neither candidate. So, Oregon will be interesting.
Results will be posted here when they are available. The Oregon results will not be available until really late, maybe Wednesday some time.
from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1XxoY8o
I have not updated my model for predicting primary outcomes in the Democratic contest, but since the last few predictions were very accurate, I don’t feel the need to do so. However, I will before the California primary, just in case.
Meanwhile, my model suggests the following for today’s primaries.
Kentucky should be nearly a tie, though my model suggests that Sanders will get one more delegate than Clinton (Clinton: 27, Sanders: 28).
The model also suggests that Sanders will win in Oregon, Clinton: 24 and Sanders: 37.
There is very little polling in Kentucky, but the latest poll from early March has Clinton slightly ahead. I expect that to be wrong.
Kentucky will be interesting. Clinton has been campaigning fairly strongly there, with TV ads and a lot of hand shaking. Sanders has been campaigning very little there lately, but he was campaigning heavily up until just a couple of days ago.
In Oregon, there is also very little in the way of polls, but the one poll I’ve seen, from just a week ago, has Clinton winning handily.
You will remember that my model is based mainly on ethnicity, and Oregon is a white state, thus the predicted Sanders win. But Oregon is also way different than other states. Politically it is more liberal, and they vote by mail. Every resident of the state is automatically registered. So, Oregon may be the best state in the US to represent a truly democratic and open process. Some say this arrangement favors Sanders, but in fact, it seems to favor neither candidate. So, Oregon will be interesting.
Results will be posted here when they are available. The Oregon results will not be available until really late, maybe Wednesday some time.
from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1XxoY8o
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire