“I’ve done the calculation and your chances of winning the lottery are identical whether you play or not.” –Fran Lebowitz
Later today, the richest lottery drawing in history — the $1.5 billion Powerball jackpot — will take place. While many outlets are encouraging people to purchase as many tickets as possible, it’s important to run through the mathematics and find out what your expected value is for each ticket.
Image credit: E. Siegel, 2016.
While a naive analysis shows that a jackpot in excess of about $245 million would lead to a break-even-or-better result, when you factor in taxes and split jackpots, you find that even for the $1.5 billion jackpot, your $2 ticket is only worth about $0.85.
Image credit: E. Siegel, 2016.
It’s often been said that lotteries are taxes on the mathematically challenged; go find out why!
from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1J2Sdvc
“I’ve done the calculation and your chances of winning the lottery are identical whether you play or not.” –Fran Lebowitz
Later today, the richest lottery drawing in history — the $1.5 billion Powerball jackpot — will take place. While many outlets are encouraging people to purchase as many tickets as possible, it’s important to run through the mathematics and find out what your expected value is for each ticket.
Image credit: E. Siegel, 2016.
While a naive analysis shows that a jackpot in excess of about $245 million would lead to a break-even-or-better result, when you factor in taxes and split jackpots, you find that even for the $1.5 billion jackpot, your $2 ticket is only worth about $0.85.
Image credit: E. Siegel, 2016.
It’s often been said that lotteries are taxes on the mathematically challenged; go find out why!
from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1J2Sdvc
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire