Visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Joaquin showing an eye forming on September 30, 2015. Image via NASA
The 10th named storm and third hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season formed at 8 a.m. EDT on September 30, 2015. As of the 5 p.m. EDT update on September 30, Hurricane Joaquin is producing sustained winds of 85 miles per hour (mph) and is pushing to the southwest at 8 mph. While everyone seems to be focusing on the intensity and track of Joaquin, the main focus of this post will be this hurricane’s potential impacts across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states and Northeast. Flooding will be a significant threat. Determining where and how much rain will fall is the biggest question in this forecast.
Even if Joaquin does not impact the United States directly, the overall weather pattern is set to produce extreme rainfall rates and flooding.
Forecast track of Hurricane Joaquin as of 5 p.m. EDT on September 30. Image via NHC
There is high uncertainty as to where Hurricane Joaquin will go. A trough of low pressure is pushing into the U.S. Southeast. Over the next couple of days, an upper level low will break apart from the trough and spin across this region. As it does so, it will likely help grab Joaquin to push further west into the Mid-Atlantia/Carolinas. However, the European model continues to show the storm to push out into the Atlantic Ocean close to Bermuda.
It looks like a battle between the majority of the models versus the European model at this point. Back in 2012, the European model sniffed out the track of Hurricane Sandy over a week before the event occurred.
Who will be victorious? Regardless of where Joaquin will travel, heavy rain will remain a huge issue all along the U.S. East Coast this weekend. With the combination of an upper level low, a stalled front, and plenty of moisture across the area, rain will occur regardless if Joaquin is in the mix.
It is still too soon to specify storm surge, rain, and wind impacts that #Joaquin could cause in the U.S. http://t.co/liRHCUt4KO
— Dr. Rick Knabb (@NHCDirector) September 30, 2015
Unfortunately, it is looking more likely that Joaquin will contribute to the amount of moisture in the area which will likely enhance rainfall totals and result in flooding.
As of September 30, we have already seen significant rains across the U.S. East Coast thanks to a cold front pushing into the region. While several parts of the Northeast are in a drought, this first round of rain has allowed the soils to become saturated.
Now, we wait for even more rainfall to develop. Saturated grounds with more rain on top of it will likely result in flooding. Rain happening today and tomorrow is a precursor of what’s to come. Check out the tweet below from Portland, Maine:
Whole foods in Portland @WCSH6 @sunjournal @PressHerald http://pic.twitter.com/b3POH5763K
— JmeWhite1 (@JmeWhite1) September 30, 2015
With so much uncertainty, it’s important to note that all areas from South Carolina northwards into the Northeast are all in line to see heavy rain, flooding, and gusty winds. With heavy rain likely, soils will become saturated. It will not take a lot of wind to knock over trees and power lines. Along the coast, rip currents and beach erosion will be a threat. If Hurricane Joaquin makes landfall, storm surge will also be a significant threat.
We still have plenty of time before this event takes place this weekend. However, it isn’t too early to prepare now by having a plan. Do you have a safety kit ready? Do you have extra food and water around in case the power goes out?
Check out the amount of rainfall the Weather Prediction Center is forecasting over the next seven days …
Heavy rain is likely across the East Coast over the next seven days. Image Credit: Weather Prediction Center
Here’s what the amount of rainfall the GFS model is showing for the East Coast over the next 10 days. Remember, this is not a forecast. It is simply one model showing one of many solutions.
Possible rainfall totals from the GFS (American) model. Image Credit: 13WMAZ Weather
Finally, here’s the amount of rainfall the GFS model is showing for the East Coast over the next 10 days. Once again, this is not a forecast. It is one model showing one of many solutions.
Potential rainfall totals from the European model over the next ten days. Image Credit: 13WMAZ Weather
NOAA is taking this storm seriously. All National Weather Service offices east of the Mississippi River are launching weather balloons four times a day versus twice a day. It allows us to better sample the atmosphere and hopefully get better solutions from weather models on what will happen. The National Hurricane Center has put some valuable information concerning the forecast for Joaquin. In their discussion, they wrote:
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Preparations to protect life and property within the warning areas in the Bahamas should be rushed to completion.
2. A significant adjustment to the forecast has been made this afternoon, and this shows an increased threat to the mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas. However, confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin far away from the United States east coast. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and includes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas.
3. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service is launching extra balloon soundings.
4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days away, it is too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Even if Joaquin stays well out to sea, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend.
5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be required as early as Thursday evening.
6. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days, which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head toward the coast, and greatly exacerbate the impacts from the hurricane. Heavy rains are likely to continue over these areas even if the center of Joaquin stays out to sea.
Bottom line: Regardless what happens to Hurricane Joaquin, heavy rain and flooding is looking likely as several models support this solution. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches could be likely in parts of South Carolina, North Carolina, and into Virginia. Everyone along the East Coast will need to monitor the latest forecasts issued by their National Weather Service office and from the National Hurricane Center.
from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1L4JbMH
Visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Joaquin showing an eye forming on September 30, 2015. Image via NASA
The 10th named storm and third hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season formed at 8 a.m. EDT on September 30, 2015. As of the 5 p.m. EDT update on September 30, Hurricane Joaquin is producing sustained winds of 85 miles per hour (mph) and is pushing to the southwest at 8 mph. While everyone seems to be focusing on the intensity and track of Joaquin, the main focus of this post will be this hurricane’s potential impacts across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states and Northeast. Flooding will be a significant threat. Determining where and how much rain will fall is the biggest question in this forecast.
Even if Joaquin does not impact the United States directly, the overall weather pattern is set to produce extreme rainfall rates and flooding.
Forecast track of Hurricane Joaquin as of 5 p.m. EDT on September 30. Image via NHC
There is high uncertainty as to where Hurricane Joaquin will go. A trough of low pressure is pushing into the U.S. Southeast. Over the next couple of days, an upper level low will break apart from the trough and spin across this region. As it does so, it will likely help grab Joaquin to push further west into the Mid-Atlantia/Carolinas. However, the European model continues to show the storm to push out into the Atlantic Ocean close to Bermuda.
It looks like a battle between the majority of the models versus the European model at this point. Back in 2012, the European model sniffed out the track of Hurricane Sandy over a week before the event occurred.
Who will be victorious? Regardless of where Joaquin will travel, heavy rain will remain a huge issue all along the U.S. East Coast this weekend. With the combination of an upper level low, a stalled front, and plenty of moisture across the area, rain will occur regardless if Joaquin is in the mix.
It is still too soon to specify storm surge, rain, and wind impacts that #Joaquin could cause in the U.S. http://t.co/liRHCUt4KO
— Dr. Rick Knabb (@NHCDirector) September 30, 2015
Unfortunately, it is looking more likely that Joaquin will contribute to the amount of moisture in the area which will likely enhance rainfall totals and result in flooding.
As of September 30, we have already seen significant rains across the U.S. East Coast thanks to a cold front pushing into the region. While several parts of the Northeast are in a drought, this first round of rain has allowed the soils to become saturated.
Now, we wait for even more rainfall to develop. Saturated grounds with more rain on top of it will likely result in flooding. Rain happening today and tomorrow is a precursor of what’s to come. Check out the tweet below from Portland, Maine:
Whole foods in Portland @WCSH6 @sunjournal @PressHerald http://pic.twitter.com/b3POH5763K
— JmeWhite1 (@JmeWhite1) September 30, 2015
With so much uncertainty, it’s important to note that all areas from South Carolina northwards into the Northeast are all in line to see heavy rain, flooding, and gusty winds. With heavy rain likely, soils will become saturated. It will not take a lot of wind to knock over trees and power lines. Along the coast, rip currents and beach erosion will be a threat. If Hurricane Joaquin makes landfall, storm surge will also be a significant threat.
We still have plenty of time before this event takes place this weekend. However, it isn’t too early to prepare now by having a plan. Do you have a safety kit ready? Do you have extra food and water around in case the power goes out?
Check out the amount of rainfall the Weather Prediction Center is forecasting over the next seven days …
Heavy rain is likely across the East Coast over the next seven days. Image Credit: Weather Prediction Center
Here’s what the amount of rainfall the GFS model is showing for the East Coast over the next 10 days. Remember, this is not a forecast. It is simply one model showing one of many solutions.
Possible rainfall totals from the GFS (American) model. Image Credit: 13WMAZ Weather
Finally, here’s the amount of rainfall the GFS model is showing for the East Coast over the next 10 days. Once again, this is not a forecast. It is one model showing one of many solutions.
Potential rainfall totals from the European model over the next ten days. Image Credit: 13WMAZ Weather
NOAA is taking this storm seriously. All National Weather Service offices east of the Mississippi River are launching weather balloons four times a day versus twice a day. It allows us to better sample the atmosphere and hopefully get better solutions from weather models on what will happen. The National Hurricane Center has put some valuable information concerning the forecast for Joaquin. In their discussion, they wrote:
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Preparations to protect life and property within the warning areas in the Bahamas should be rushed to completion.
2. A significant adjustment to the forecast has been made this afternoon, and this shows an increased threat to the mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas. However, confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin far away from the United States east coast. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and includes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas.
3. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service is launching extra balloon soundings.
4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days away, it is too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Even if Joaquin stays well out to sea, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend.
5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be required as early as Thursday evening.
6. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days, which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head toward the coast, and greatly exacerbate the impacts from the hurricane. Heavy rains are likely to continue over these areas even if the center of Joaquin stays out to sea.
Bottom line: Regardless what happens to Hurricane Joaquin, heavy rain and flooding is looking likely as several models support this solution. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches could be likely in parts of South Carolina, North Carolina, and into Virginia. Everyone along the East Coast will need to monitor the latest forecasts issued by their National Weather Service office and from the National Hurricane Center.
from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1L4JbMH
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