A Sea Change in Maple Grove: see you there! [Greg Laden's Blog]

The climate change documentary A Sea Change will be shown at the Maple Grove Library, in the Western Twin Cities, by the Northwest Minneapolis Climate Action group, this Wednesday at 7:00 PM. See you there!

Here is a trailer:



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2rq6Rs1

The climate change documentary A Sea Change will be shown at the Maple Grove Library, in the Western Twin Cities, by the Northwest Minneapolis Climate Action group, this Wednesday at 7:00 PM. See you there!

Here is a trailer:



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2rq6Rs1

The Donald Trump War on Science: Pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement and other recent stories [Confessions of a Science Librarian]

Anti-vaccers, climate change deniers, and anti-GMO activists are all the same

I imagine that quite a few people were upset by the title for this post, so let me explain what I mean, and please hear me out before you sharpen your pitchforks. The arguments used by all three of these groups, and indeed by science deniers more generally, are all fundamentally the same. In other words, the underlying logical structure is identical for the arguments used in support of all three of these positions. Thus, it is logically inconsistent to criticize one of these positions while embracing another.

You see, what I have observed over the past few years of blogging is that very few people like to think of themselves as “anti-science” or as a “science denier.” Those people certainly exist, and I do encounter them, but most of the people who visit my blog/page claim to love science…at least until it disagrees with their ideology. This puts them in a difficult position, because when a scientific result conflicts with their beliefs, they have to find some excuse or justification for why they don’t accept the results of science on that particular topic, and what I see over and over again is that everyone falls back on exactly the same excuses, regardless of what anti-science position they are trying to defend. For example, on several occasions, I have seen people criticize anti-vaccers for appealing to the authority of a few fringe “experts.” Then, a few threads later, I see those same people appealing to the authority of a few fringe experts on topics like climate change and GMOs. Similarly, I see people ridicule climate change deniers for thinking that all climatologists have been bought off, but when the topic shifts to GMOs, suddenly those same people start claiming that Monsanto has bought off all of the world’s genetic engineers/food scientists. Do you see what I am getting it? You can’t criticize someone for using a particular line of reasoning, then turn around and use that same line of reasoning to support your own particular form of science denial. That’s not logically consistent, and it’s not how science operates. Science is a method. It either works or it doesn’t, and you can’t cherry-pick when to accept it.

I suspect that people are becoming more upset with me, rather than less upset, so if you are currently unhappy with me, then I want you to stop and carefully think about this before you read any further. I’m not attacking you, I’m not even ridiculing you, but I am trying to help you think rationally and consistently. If you truly love science, rather than simply liking it when it agrees with your preconceptions, then you should hear me out. You should take a good look at the arguments and examples that I am going to present, and you should make sure that you are actually being rational and logically consistent. I also want to clarify that I don’t think people who believe these views are unintelligent or even consciously denying science. As I’ve previously discussed, I used to be a creationist and a climate change denier, so I know first-hand just how easy it is for ideology to cloud your judgement and make you think that you are being rational, when you are actually just denying reality.

anti-vaccers anti-vaxxers all the same science denial cliamte change global warming GMOs


It’s not about the evidence

Before I go any further, I need to make it explicitly clear that none of these positions exist because of any actual scientific evidence supporting them. In every case, they are soundly defeated by a veritable mountain of consistent scientific results. On GMOs, for example, over 1,700 studies have been conducted, and they failed to find any evidence that GMOs are worse than traditional crops for either human health or the environment, and in some cases, they are better (Nicolia et al. 2013; also see Sanvido et al. 2006Snell et al. 2012Van Eenennaam and Young. 2014, and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine report 2016). This is, of course, also the conclusion that nearly 300 scientific organizations reached after reviewing the data.

Climate change is the same story. Because of carbon isotopes, we know that we have greatly increased the COin the atmosphere (Bohm et al. 2002Ghosh and Brand 2003Wei et al. 2009), and thanks to satellite measurements, we know that our CO2 is increasing the amount of heat energy that the earth’s atmosphere traps (Harries et al. 2001Griggs and Harries 2007). Further, studies of past climate clearly show that CO2 is a major driver of climate change (Lorius et al. 1990Tripati et al. 2009Shakun et al. 2012), and we have carefully studied the sun, volcanic emissions, Milankovitch cycles, etc. and none of them can explain the current warming, but including our greenhouse gasses in the analyses does explain the warming (Stott et al. 2001Meehl, et al. 2004Allen et al. 2006Wild et al. 2007Lockwood and Frohlich 20072008Lean and Rind 2008Foster and Rahmstorf 2011Imbers et al. 2014). Indeed, literally thousands of studies have all converged on the conclusion that we are causing the planet to warm, and peer-reviewed studies to the contrary are virtually non-existent (but see the next major point below). As a result, this is another topic that enjoys an extremely strong consensus among actual experts.

Similarly, vaccines have been studied thousands of times and have been shown to be extremely safe and effective. Indeed, they are the most well-studied treatment in medical history, and you can find trials that looked at pretty much whatever particular adverse event you are interested in. There are, for example, numerous studies that failed to find any evidence that vaccines cause autism, including a meta-analysis with over 1.2 million children (Taylor et al. 2014). There are studies showing that vaccines don’t cause SIDs (Hoffman et al. 1987Griffin et al. 1988Mitchell et al. 1995Fleming et al. 2001Vennemann et al. 2007a; Vennemann et al. 2007b), studies showing that they don’t cause asthma or allergies (Schmitz et al. 2011Grabenhenrich et al. 2014), studies showing that the flu vaccine doesn’t increase fetal or infant deaths (Mak et al. 2008Pasternak et al. 2012aPasternak et al. 2012bFell et al. 2012Haberg et al. 2013), etc. (you can find a non-exhaustive  list of a bunch of other safety trials here).

Image via The Credible Hulk

My point here is simple: all of these topics have been extremely well studied, and they are as close to settled as science ever comes. Anyone who holds one of these positions is denying a massive body of evidence, which is why I am comfortable with calling them science deniers. This also creates the dilemma that I will focus the rest of the post on. Namely, most of the people who hold these positions don’t want to be considered science deniers, so they have to come up with some excuse for rejecting science, and interestingly, they all seem to have converged on the same excuses.

Note: Inevitably on these topics, when faced with thousands of studies, people start shifting the goal posts and going down ever narrowing side-tangents, but the reality is that these topics are so well studied, that even if you want to go down a ridiculously specific side topic, in the majority of cases, there are still studies on that. So, before you comment with something to the effect of, “but what about…” or “the real issue is…” check and make sure that it hasn’t been studied, because odds are that it has.

  Cherry-picking small, poorly conducted studies

In an attempt to counter these mountains of evidence, many people rely on cherry-picking a handful of studies that appear to support their position, but this is problematic for a number of reasons. First, these topics have been studied so many times, that it is almost inevitable that there will be a handful of studies that reached a false conclusion just by chance (even if the studies were conducted flawlessly). This is a simple by-product of the statistical tests that we use (details here). Further, it is blatantly obvious that not all studies are equal. Bad research does sometimes get published. So, whenever you approach a scientific topic, you always have to look for a consensus among studies, rather than just cherry-picking the ones that agree with. This is why systematic reviews and meta-analyses (like the ones that I cited earlier) are so useful. They condense the results of many papers into a single work so that you can see the overarching trends, rather than being deceived by the statistical outliers.

Additionally, you need to critically examine a study before you accept it. Ask yourself questions like, did it have a large sample size? Was it controlled properly? Did it use a robust design? Did it use the appropriate statistical tests? Was it published in a reputable journal? etc. These are really important questions, and they are questions that anti-vaccers, climate change deniers, and GMO opponents rarely ask. Indeed, these positions are famous for citing truly horrible studies. Just in the past few weeks, for example, anti-vax websites were singing the praises of a “new” study that claimed to show that vaccinates were harmful, but in reality, the study was not set up correctly, it did not use the correct analyses, and it was so terrible that it was quickly retracted (details here). Further, that is far from a one-off event. Sherri Tenpenny (one of the leaders of the anti-vaccine movement) created an online “library” that exists for the express purpose of cherry-picking anti-vaccine studies for you, that way you can just see the studies that agree with you, without having to be bothered with the mountain of high quality studies that disagree with you (details here). Indeed, she makes no attempt to hide the fact that her site exists to help you find information that confirms your biases rather than trying to figure out what is true. For example, one of her pages advertising her site says (the weird capitalization was in the original),

“Convinced that Vaccines are Unsafe but Need Scientific Proof? You need information that gives you ‘The Other Side of the Story.’”

Similarly, on the topic of autism, anti-vaccers eagerly share lists of 100+ papers that supposedly show that vaccines cause autism, but as I explained at length here, many of those papers aren’t on autism or aren’t on vaccines, and the ones that are on topic all used small samples sizes and weak designs that can’t establish causation. In contrast, there are several large cross-section and cohort studies and even a meta-analysis with over 1.2 million children, all of which consistently failed to find any evidence that vaccines cause autism.

Click here to read the rest from Logic of Science



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2rFochz

I imagine that quite a few people were upset by the title for this post, so let me explain what I mean, and please hear me out before you sharpen your pitchforks. The arguments used by all three of these groups, and indeed by science deniers more generally, are all fundamentally the same. In other words, the underlying logical structure is identical for the arguments used in support of all three of these positions. Thus, it is logically inconsistent to criticize one of these positions while embracing another.

You see, what I have observed over the past few years of blogging is that very few people like to think of themselves as “anti-science” or as a “science denier.” Those people certainly exist, and I do encounter them, but most of the people who visit my blog/page claim to love science…at least until it disagrees with their ideology. This puts them in a difficult position, because when a scientific result conflicts with their beliefs, they have to find some excuse or justification for why they don’t accept the results of science on that particular topic, and what I see over and over again is that everyone falls back on exactly the same excuses, regardless of what anti-science position they are trying to defend. For example, on several occasions, I have seen people criticize anti-vaccers for appealing to the authority of a few fringe “experts.” Then, a few threads later, I see those same people appealing to the authority of a few fringe experts on topics like climate change and GMOs. Similarly, I see people ridicule climate change deniers for thinking that all climatologists have been bought off, but when the topic shifts to GMOs, suddenly those same people start claiming that Monsanto has bought off all of the world’s genetic engineers/food scientists. Do you see what I am getting it? You can’t criticize someone for using a particular line of reasoning, then turn around and use that same line of reasoning to support your own particular form of science denial. That’s not logically consistent, and it’s not how science operates. Science is a method. It either works or it doesn’t, and you can’t cherry-pick when to accept it.

I suspect that people are becoming more upset with me, rather than less upset, so if you are currently unhappy with me, then I want you to stop and carefully think about this before you read any further. I’m not attacking you, I’m not even ridiculing you, but I am trying to help you think rationally and consistently. If you truly love science, rather than simply liking it when it agrees with your preconceptions, then you should hear me out. You should take a good look at the arguments and examples that I am going to present, and you should make sure that you are actually being rational and logically consistent. I also want to clarify that I don’t think people who believe these views are unintelligent or even consciously denying science. As I’ve previously discussed, I used to be a creationist and a climate change denier, so I know first-hand just how easy it is for ideology to cloud your judgement and make you think that you are being rational, when you are actually just denying reality.

anti-vaccers anti-vaxxers all the same science denial cliamte change global warming GMOs


It’s not about the evidence

Before I go any further, I need to make it explicitly clear that none of these positions exist because of any actual scientific evidence supporting them. In every case, they are soundly defeated by a veritable mountain of consistent scientific results. On GMOs, for example, over 1,700 studies have been conducted, and they failed to find any evidence that GMOs are worse than traditional crops for either human health or the environment, and in some cases, they are better (Nicolia et al. 2013; also see Sanvido et al. 2006Snell et al. 2012Van Eenennaam and Young. 2014, and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine report 2016). This is, of course, also the conclusion that nearly 300 scientific organizations reached after reviewing the data.

Climate change is the same story. Because of carbon isotopes, we know that we have greatly increased the COin the atmosphere (Bohm et al. 2002Ghosh and Brand 2003Wei et al. 2009), and thanks to satellite measurements, we know that our CO2 is increasing the amount of heat energy that the earth’s atmosphere traps (Harries et al. 2001Griggs and Harries 2007). Further, studies of past climate clearly show that CO2 is a major driver of climate change (Lorius et al. 1990Tripati et al. 2009Shakun et al. 2012), and we have carefully studied the sun, volcanic emissions, Milankovitch cycles, etc. and none of them can explain the current warming, but including our greenhouse gasses in the analyses does explain the warming (Stott et al. 2001Meehl, et al. 2004Allen et al. 2006Wild et al. 2007Lockwood and Frohlich 20072008Lean and Rind 2008Foster and Rahmstorf 2011Imbers et al. 2014). Indeed, literally thousands of studies have all converged on the conclusion that we are causing the planet to warm, and peer-reviewed studies to the contrary are virtually non-existent (but see the next major point below). As a result, this is another topic that enjoys an extremely strong consensus among actual experts.

Similarly, vaccines have been studied thousands of times and have been shown to be extremely safe and effective. Indeed, they are the most well-studied treatment in medical history, and you can find trials that looked at pretty much whatever particular adverse event you are interested in. There are, for example, numerous studies that failed to find any evidence that vaccines cause autism, including a meta-analysis with over 1.2 million children (Taylor et al. 2014). There are studies showing that vaccines don’t cause SIDs (Hoffman et al. 1987Griffin et al. 1988Mitchell et al. 1995Fleming et al. 2001Vennemann et al. 2007a; Vennemann et al. 2007b), studies showing that they don’t cause asthma or allergies (Schmitz et al. 2011Grabenhenrich et al. 2014), studies showing that the flu vaccine doesn’t increase fetal or infant deaths (Mak et al. 2008Pasternak et al. 2012aPasternak et al. 2012bFell et al. 2012Haberg et al. 2013), etc. (you can find a non-exhaustive  list of a bunch of other safety trials here).

Image via The Credible Hulk

My point here is simple: all of these topics have been extremely well studied, and they are as close to settled as science ever comes. Anyone who holds one of these positions is denying a massive body of evidence, which is why I am comfortable with calling them science deniers. This also creates the dilemma that I will focus the rest of the post on. Namely, most of the people who hold these positions don’t want to be considered science deniers, so they have to come up with some excuse for rejecting science, and interestingly, they all seem to have converged on the same excuses.

Note: Inevitably on these topics, when faced with thousands of studies, people start shifting the goal posts and going down ever narrowing side-tangents, but the reality is that these topics are so well studied, that even if you want to go down a ridiculously specific side topic, in the majority of cases, there are still studies on that. So, before you comment with something to the effect of, “but what about…” or “the real issue is…” check and make sure that it hasn’t been studied, because odds are that it has.

  Cherry-picking small, poorly conducted studies

In an attempt to counter these mountains of evidence, many people rely on cherry-picking a handful of studies that appear to support their position, but this is problematic for a number of reasons. First, these topics have been studied so many times, that it is almost inevitable that there will be a handful of studies that reached a false conclusion just by chance (even if the studies were conducted flawlessly). This is a simple by-product of the statistical tests that we use (details here). Further, it is blatantly obvious that not all studies are equal. Bad research does sometimes get published. So, whenever you approach a scientific topic, you always have to look for a consensus among studies, rather than just cherry-picking the ones that agree with. This is why systematic reviews and meta-analyses (like the ones that I cited earlier) are so useful. They condense the results of many papers into a single work so that you can see the overarching trends, rather than being deceived by the statistical outliers.

Additionally, you need to critically examine a study before you accept it. Ask yourself questions like, did it have a large sample size? Was it controlled properly? Did it use a robust design? Did it use the appropriate statistical tests? Was it published in a reputable journal? etc. These are really important questions, and they are questions that anti-vaccers, climate change deniers, and GMO opponents rarely ask. Indeed, these positions are famous for citing truly horrible studies. Just in the past few weeks, for example, anti-vax websites were singing the praises of a “new” study that claimed to show that vaccinates were harmful, but in reality, the study was not set up correctly, it did not use the correct analyses, and it was so terrible that it was quickly retracted (details here). Further, that is far from a one-off event. Sherri Tenpenny (one of the leaders of the anti-vaccine movement) created an online “library” that exists for the express purpose of cherry-picking anti-vaccine studies for you, that way you can just see the studies that agree with you, without having to be bothered with the mountain of high quality studies that disagree with you (details here). Indeed, she makes no attempt to hide the fact that her site exists to help you find information that confirms your biases rather than trying to figure out what is true. For example, one of her pages advertising her site says (the weird capitalization was in the original),

“Convinced that Vaccines are Unsafe but Need Scientific Proof? You need information that gives you ‘The Other Side of the Story.’”

Similarly, on the topic of autism, anti-vaccers eagerly share lists of 100+ papers that supposedly show that vaccines cause autism, but as I explained at length here, many of those papers aren’t on autism or aren’t on vaccines, and the ones that are on topic all used small samples sizes and weak designs that can’t establish causation. In contrast, there are several large cross-section and cohort studies and even a meta-analysis with over 1.2 million children, all of which consistently failed to find any evidence that vaccines cause autism.

Click here to read the rest from Logic of Science



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2rFochz

Is there such a thing as an “evolution-proof” drug? (part the third) [Aetiology]

A claim that scientists need to quit making:

I’ve written about these types of claims before. The first one–a claim that antimicrobial peptides were essentially “resistance proof,” was proven to be embarrassingly wrong in a laboratory test. Resistance not only evolved, but it evolved independently in almost every instance they tested (using E. coli and Pseudomonas species), taking only 600-700 generations–a relative blip in microbial time. Oops.

A very similar claim made the rounds in 2014, and the newest one is out today–a report of a “super vancomycin” that, as noted above, could be used “without fear of resistance emerging.” (The title of the article literally claims “‘Magical’ antibiotic brings fresh hope to battle against drug resistance”, another claim made in addition to the “no resistance” one in the Scripps press release by senior author Dale Boger). This one claims that, because the modified vancomycin uses 3 different ways to kill the bacteria, “Organisms just can’t simultaneously work to find a way around three independent mechanisms of action. Even if they found a solution to one of those, the organisms would still be killed by the other two.”

A grand claim, but history suggests otherwise. It was argued that bacteria could not evolve resistance to bacteriophage, as the ancient interaction between viruses and their bacterial hosts certainly must have already exploited and overcome any available defense. Now a plethora of resistance mechanisms are known.

Within the paper itself, the limitations are much more clearly laid out. Discussing usage of the antibiotic, the authors note of these conventional semisynthetic vancomycin analogs:

“However, their use against vancomycin-resistant bacteria (e.g., VRE and VRSA), where they are less potent and where only a single and less durable mechanism of action remains operative, likely would more rapidly raise resistance, not only compromising its future use but also, potentially transferring that resistance to other organisms (e.g., MRSA).”

So as they acknowledge, not really so resistance-proof at all–only if they’re used under perfect conditions and without any vancomycin resistance genes already present. What are the odds of that once this drug is released? (Spoiler alert: very low).

Alexander Fleming, who won the 1945 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, tried to sound the warning that the usefulness of antibiotics would be short-lived as bacteria adapted, but his warnings were (and still are?) largely ignored. There is no “magic bullet;” there are only temporary solutions, and we should have learned by now not to underestimate our bacterial companions.

Part of this post previously published here and here.



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2rVmgkJ

A claim that scientists need to quit making:

I’ve written about these types of claims before. The first one–a claim that antimicrobial peptides were essentially “resistance proof,” was proven to be embarrassingly wrong in a laboratory test. Resistance not only evolved, but it evolved independently in almost every instance they tested (using E. coli and Pseudomonas species), taking only 600-700 generations–a relative blip in microbial time. Oops.

A very similar claim made the rounds in 2014, and the newest one is out today–a report of a “super vancomycin” that, as noted above, could be used “without fear of resistance emerging.” (The title of the article literally claims “‘Magical’ antibiotic brings fresh hope to battle against drug resistance”, another claim made in addition to the “no resistance” one in the Scripps press release by senior author Dale Boger). This one claims that, because the modified vancomycin uses 3 different ways to kill the bacteria, “Organisms just can’t simultaneously work to find a way around three independent mechanisms of action. Even if they found a solution to one of those, the organisms would still be killed by the other two.”

A grand claim, but history suggests otherwise. It was argued that bacteria could not evolve resistance to bacteriophage, as the ancient interaction between viruses and their bacterial hosts certainly must have already exploited and overcome any available defense. Now a plethora of resistance mechanisms are known.

Within the paper itself, the limitations are much more clearly laid out. Discussing usage of the antibiotic, the authors note of these conventional semisynthetic vancomycin analogs:

“However, their use against vancomycin-resistant bacteria (e.g., VRE and VRSA), where they are less potent and where only a single and less durable mechanism of action remains operative, likely would more rapidly raise resistance, not only compromising its future use but also, potentially transferring that resistance to other organisms (e.g., MRSA).”

So as they acknowledge, not really so resistance-proof at all–only if they’re used under perfect conditions and without any vancomycin resistance genes already present. What are the odds of that once this drug is released? (Spoiler alert: very low).

Alexander Fleming, who won the 1945 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, tried to sound the warning that the usefulness of antibiotics would be short-lived as bacteria adapted, but his warnings were (and still are?) largely ignored. There is no “magic bullet;” there are only temporary solutions, and we should have learned by now not to underestimate our bacterial companions.

Part of this post previously published here and here.



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2rVmgkJ

How do hurricanes get their names?

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends November 30. This year has been a little unusual with the first storm, Arlene, named in April. That was a tropical storm in the north central Atlantic that had no impact on land.

Ever wonder how hurricanes get their names? And why do hurricanes have names at all? Meteorologists long ago learned that naming tropical storms and hurricanes helps people remember the storms, communicate about them more effectively, and so stay safer if and when a particular storm strikes a coast. These experts assign names to hurricanes according to a formal list of names that is approved of prior to the start of each hurricane season. The U.S. National Hurricane Center started this practice in 1950. Now, the World Meteorological Organization generates and maintains the list of hurricane names. Find out more about hurricane names below.

Image via NOAA.

How and why did hurricanes first begin receiving names?

When does a storm receive a name?

What are “hurricane name lists?”

What are the hurricane names for 2017?

How and why did hurricanes first begin receiving names? While people have been naming major storms for hundreds of years, most hurricanes were originally designated by a system of latitude-longitude numbers, which was useful to meteorologists trying to track these storms. Unfortunately, this system was confusing to people living on coasts seeking hurricane information.

In 1950, a formal practice for storm naming was first developed for the Atlantic Ocean by the U.S. National Hurricane Center. At that time, storms were named according to a phonetic alphabet (e.g., Able, Baker, Charlie) and the names used were the same for each hurricane season; in other words, the first hurricane of a season was always named “Able,” the second “Baker,” and so on.

In 1953, to avoid the repetitive use of names, the system was revised so that storms would be named after female names. By doing this, the National Weather Service was mimicking the habit of Naval meteorologists, who named the storms after women, much as ships at sea were traditionally named for women.

In 1979, the system was revised again to include both female and male hurricane names.

See the complete history of naming hurricanes, from NOAA

When does a storm receive a name? Tropical storms are given names when they display a rotating circulation pattern and wind speeds of 39 miles per hour. A tropical storm develops into a hurricane when wind speeds reach 74 miles per hour.

What are “hurricane name lists?” Lists of hurricane names have been developed for many of the major ocean basins around the world. Today, there are six lists of hurricane names in use for Atlantic Ocean storms. These lists rotate, one each year. That means the list of this year’s hurricane names will come up again six years from now. There’s an exception to this practice, however. The names of hurricanes that are particularly damaging are retired for legal and historical reasons. For example, the use of the name Katrina was retired in 2005 following the devastating impact that Hurricane Katrina had on New Orleans.

Hurricane Katrina on August 28, 2005. Image Credit: NASA.

Hurricane Katrina on August 28, 2005. Image Credit: NASA.

What are the hurricane names for 2017?

Atlantic hurricane names for the 2017 season are: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, and Whitney. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

Eastern North Pacific hurricane names for the 2017 season are: Adrian, Beatriz, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Hilary, Irwin, Jova, Kenneth, Lidia, Max, Norma, Otis, Pilar, Ramon, Selma, Todd, Veronica, Wiley, Xina, York, and Zelda. The eastern North Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30.

If you’re interested, you can view those names, and names for upcoming years here.

hurricane-isabel-nasa-500

Astronaut Ed Lu captured this view of Hurricane Isabel in 2003 from the International Space Station. Image via Mike Trenchard, NASA.

Hurricanes in other ocean basins around the world, which are called tropical cyclones, are also given names.

Bottom line: Hurricanes are given names according to a formal system that is managed by the World Meteorological Organization. Hurricane names for 2017.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1kHu4LC

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends November 30. This year has been a little unusual with the first storm, Arlene, named in April. That was a tropical storm in the north central Atlantic that had no impact on land.

Ever wonder how hurricanes get their names? And why do hurricanes have names at all? Meteorologists long ago learned that naming tropical storms and hurricanes helps people remember the storms, communicate about them more effectively, and so stay safer if and when a particular storm strikes a coast. These experts assign names to hurricanes according to a formal list of names that is approved of prior to the start of each hurricane season. The U.S. National Hurricane Center started this practice in 1950. Now, the World Meteorological Organization generates and maintains the list of hurricane names. Find out more about hurricane names below.

Image via NOAA.

How and why did hurricanes first begin receiving names?

When does a storm receive a name?

What are “hurricane name lists?”

What are the hurricane names for 2017?

How and why did hurricanes first begin receiving names? While people have been naming major storms for hundreds of years, most hurricanes were originally designated by a system of latitude-longitude numbers, which was useful to meteorologists trying to track these storms. Unfortunately, this system was confusing to people living on coasts seeking hurricane information.

In 1950, a formal practice for storm naming was first developed for the Atlantic Ocean by the U.S. National Hurricane Center. At that time, storms were named according to a phonetic alphabet (e.g., Able, Baker, Charlie) and the names used were the same for each hurricane season; in other words, the first hurricane of a season was always named “Able,” the second “Baker,” and so on.

In 1953, to avoid the repetitive use of names, the system was revised so that storms would be named after female names. By doing this, the National Weather Service was mimicking the habit of Naval meteorologists, who named the storms after women, much as ships at sea were traditionally named for women.

In 1979, the system was revised again to include both female and male hurricane names.

See the complete history of naming hurricanes, from NOAA

When does a storm receive a name? Tropical storms are given names when they display a rotating circulation pattern and wind speeds of 39 miles per hour. A tropical storm develops into a hurricane when wind speeds reach 74 miles per hour.

What are “hurricane name lists?” Lists of hurricane names have been developed for many of the major ocean basins around the world. Today, there are six lists of hurricane names in use for Atlantic Ocean storms. These lists rotate, one each year. That means the list of this year’s hurricane names will come up again six years from now. There’s an exception to this practice, however. The names of hurricanes that are particularly damaging are retired for legal and historical reasons. For example, the use of the name Katrina was retired in 2005 following the devastating impact that Hurricane Katrina had on New Orleans.

Hurricane Katrina on August 28, 2005. Image Credit: NASA.

Hurricane Katrina on August 28, 2005. Image Credit: NASA.

What are the hurricane names for 2017?

Atlantic hurricane names for the 2017 season are: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, and Whitney. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

Eastern North Pacific hurricane names for the 2017 season are: Adrian, Beatriz, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Hilary, Irwin, Jova, Kenneth, Lidia, Max, Norma, Otis, Pilar, Ramon, Selma, Todd, Veronica, Wiley, Xina, York, and Zelda. The eastern North Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to November 30.

If you’re interested, you can view those names, and names for upcoming years here.

hurricane-isabel-nasa-500

Astronaut Ed Lu captured this view of Hurricane Isabel in 2003 from the International Space Station. Image via Mike Trenchard, NASA.

Hurricanes in other ocean basins around the world, which are called tropical cyclones, are also given names.

Bottom line: Hurricanes are given names according to a formal system that is managed by the World Meteorological Organization. Hurricane names for 2017.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1kHu4LC

Trump Tweet Eight Year Old Script Browser Plugin from the Daily Show [Greg Laden's Blog]

Just a pointer to this fantastic, big league idea to convert Trump’s tweets into eight year old script.



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2qBgQY0

Beren and Luthien, sitting in an Ent. (New Tolkien LOTR Book) [Greg Laden's Blog]

The brand new just published (June 1) book Beren and Lúthien presents the story of the human (or should I say “Man”?) Beren Erchamion, or “The One-Handed” (AKA Beren Camlost, for “the Empty Handed”) and the Elf-maiden Lúthien Tinúviel.

If you read The Lord of the Rings you may recall Aragorn telling their story to Frodo.

This Man and this Elf-Maiden lived over 6,000 years before the time of the Lord of the Rings, and their story is told in several places throughout the LOTR literature, in books that, frankly, most people don’t read. Christopher Tolkien, heir of J.R.R. Tolkien, and mapmaker of the The Lord of the Rings, created Beren and Lúthien from those original texts, and the book, much delayed, is coming out right now. You can pre order it here.

The story is in the form of Hercules’ myth, with the quest set to Beren to steal a Silmaril, which is a special jewel, from the Ainur Melkor. That would be roughly like trying to steal Donald Trump’s tweeting device while he is under the protection of the United States Secret Service. Or maybe a little harder.

Beren is sent on this quest because it is the only way he can keep dating the Elf-Maiden Lúthien, according to her Elf-Lord father.

Tolkien, in his own tradition which was not as uncommon in, say, the 19th century as it is now, having slowly disappeared over time, played fast and lose with his stories, changing them quite a bit across published forms. This happened within some of the texts, like The Hobbit, but more pervasively, across different instantiations of the total lore-set. For this reason, the story of Beren and Lúthien changes a great deal across the full body of written work. This makes it impossible to simply extract the original story and make it into a single coherent book that is also “true” to a particular telling.

Personally, I would have been happy if Christopher Tolkien had just settled on a version of the story and made this into a regular novel, but I’m probably the only fan of Tolkien’s work that would accept that. Therefore, the new work is much more complicated, written from the point of view of the author JRR Tolkien, integrating text taken from the original work.

This new book also serves to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the publication of The Children of Hurin. Come to think of it, you might want to read The Children of Hurin first, because it kinda sets up the context. (Since this is about LOTR, people will disagree!)

Yes, there are orcs.



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2rkivCL

The brand new just published (June 1) book Beren and Lúthien presents the story of the human (or should I say “Man”?) Beren Erchamion, or “The One-Handed” (AKA Beren Camlost, for “the Empty Handed”) and the Elf-maiden Lúthien Tinúviel.

If you read The Lord of the Rings you may recall Aragorn telling their story to Frodo.

This Man and this Elf-Maiden lived over 6,000 years before the time of the Lord of the Rings, and their story is told in several places throughout the LOTR literature, in books that, frankly, most people don’t read. Christopher Tolkien, heir of J.R.R. Tolkien, and mapmaker of the The Lord of the Rings, created Beren and Lúthien from those original texts, and the book, much delayed, is coming out right now. You can pre order it here.

The story is in the form of Hercules’ myth, with the quest set to Beren to steal a Silmaril, which is a special jewel, from the Ainur Melkor. That would be roughly like trying to steal Donald Trump’s tweeting device while he is under the protection of the United States Secret Service. Or maybe a little harder.

Beren is sent on this quest because it is the only way he can keep dating the Elf-Maiden Lúthien, according to her Elf-Lord father.

Tolkien, in his own tradition which was not as uncommon in, say, the 19th century as it is now, having slowly disappeared over time, played fast and lose with his stories, changing them quite a bit across published forms. This happened within some of the texts, like The Hobbit, but more pervasively, across different instantiations of the total lore-set. For this reason, the story of Beren and Lúthien changes a great deal across the full body of written work. This makes it impossible to simply extract the original story and make it into a single coherent book that is also “true” to a particular telling.

Personally, I would have been happy if Christopher Tolkien had just settled on a version of the story and made this into a regular novel, but I’m probably the only fan of Tolkien’s work that would accept that. Therefore, the new work is much more complicated, written from the point of view of the author JRR Tolkien, integrating text taken from the original work.

This new book also serves to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the publication of The Children of Hurin. Come to think of it, you might want to read The Children of Hurin first, because it kinda sets up the context. (Since this is about LOTR, people will disagree!)

Yes, there are orcs.



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2rkivCL

Nothing Escapes From A Black Hole, And Now Astronomers Have Proof (Synopsis) [Starts With A Bang]

“Where we’re going, we won’t need eyes to see.” -Sam Neill, Event Horizon

Are event horizons real? With data taken from around a dozen observatories earlier this year, simultaneously, the Event Horizon Telescope is poised to put together the first-ever direct image of the black hole at the center of our galaxy Sagittarius A*. If event horizons are real, this data should be able to create the first-ever image of it, proving that nothing escapes from inside a black hole once you’ve been swallowed.

Five different simulations in general relativity, using a magnetohydrodynamic model of the black hole’s accretion disk, and how the radio signal will look as a result. Note the clear signature of the event horizon in all the expected results. Image credit: GRMHD simulations of visibility amplitude variability for Event Horizon Telescope images of Sgr A*, L. Medeiros et al., arXiv:1601.06799.

But why wait? Through a very clever technique, a team of astronomers used data from the Pan-STARRS telescope to test the alternative: that there’d be a hard surface exterior to where the event horizon is supposed to be. If that were the case, stars that collided with these hard surfaces would create a transient signal in the visible and infrared, which is exactly what Pan-STARRS is sensitive to.

If a hard surface, rather than an event horizon, exists around a supermassive object, a collision should result in a luminous burst that telescopes like Pan-STARRS should easily perceive. Image credit: Mark A. Garlick.

The lack of such signals, even though a significant number would be expected, shows that the alternative to event horizons cannot stand. Event horizons are real, and now we have indirect proof!



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2rEKPm5

“Where we’re going, we won’t need eyes to see.” -Sam Neill, Event Horizon

Are event horizons real? With data taken from around a dozen observatories earlier this year, simultaneously, the Event Horizon Telescope is poised to put together the first-ever direct image of the black hole at the center of our galaxy Sagittarius A*. If event horizons are real, this data should be able to create the first-ever image of it, proving that nothing escapes from inside a black hole once you’ve been swallowed.

Five different simulations in general relativity, using a magnetohydrodynamic model of the black hole’s accretion disk, and how the radio signal will look as a result. Note the clear signature of the event horizon in all the expected results. Image credit: GRMHD simulations of visibility amplitude variability for Event Horizon Telescope images of Sgr A*, L. Medeiros et al., arXiv:1601.06799.

But why wait? Through a very clever technique, a team of astronomers used data from the Pan-STARRS telescope to test the alternative: that there’d be a hard surface exterior to where the event horizon is supposed to be. If that were the case, stars that collided with these hard surfaces would create a transient signal in the visible and infrared, which is exactly what Pan-STARRS is sensitive to.

If a hard surface, rather than an event horizon, exists around a supermassive object, a collision should result in a luminous burst that telescopes like Pan-STARRS should easily perceive. Image credit: Mark A. Garlick.

The lack of such signals, even though a significant number would be expected, shows that the alternative to event horizons cannot stand. Event horizons are real, and now we have indirect proof!



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2rEKPm5

May Pieces Of My Mind #3 [Aardvarchaeology]

In the time of the lilacs, in the month of laburnum

  • I didn’t like any of this year’s Hugo-nominated novels, so I’ll be voting ”No award” there. But the short-story category really has me confused. The novels aren’t great, but most of them are certainly science fiction. Only one of the six shorts though is scifi as opposed to fantasy. Is there no longer a difference between the genre remits of the Nebulas and the Hugos? I thought the Hugos were strictly sf.
  • Today a number of contract archaeologists and metal detectorists have treated me like someone with valuable skills and knowledge. I really need that. Thank you guys!
  • I’ve realised that I’m not into games of the type “let’s all play our own game of solitaire and occasionally glance at each other”, so I’m selling off Race for the Galaxy and Glass Road.
  • Spoke to a physicist at the gaming convention. “I like mathematicians a lot. Won’t hear one bad word about them. I think everyone should own one!”
  • Gekkoes in Ullared
  • The summer weather and three days at cons have severed me from the everyday. I’m confused about going back to work.
  • Junior has received his final high school grades. They’re better than mine were. He’s set to move out from his mom and start studying computer science at Jönköping University come September.
  • Once 45 is ousted, hope his voters will realise they aren’t really equipped to make political choices. Better abstain for the common good.


from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2rnMZWp

In the time of the lilacs, in the month of laburnum

  • I didn’t like any of this year’s Hugo-nominated novels, so I’ll be voting ”No award” there. But the short-story category really has me confused. The novels aren’t great, but most of them are certainly science fiction. Only one of the six shorts though is scifi as opposed to fantasy. Is there no longer a difference between the genre remits of the Nebulas and the Hugos? I thought the Hugos were strictly sf.
  • Today a number of contract archaeologists and metal detectorists have treated me like someone with valuable skills and knowledge. I really need that. Thank you guys!
  • I’ve realised that I’m not into games of the type “let’s all play our own game of solitaire and occasionally glance at each other”, so I’m selling off Race for the Galaxy and Glass Road.
  • Spoke to a physicist at the gaming convention. “I like mathematicians a lot. Won’t hear one bad word about them. I think everyone should own one!”
  • Gekkoes in Ullared
  • The summer weather and three days at cons have severed me from the everyday. I’m confused about going back to work.
  • Junior has received his final high school grades. They’re better than mine were. He’s set to move out from his mom and start studying computer science at Jönköping University come September.
  • Once 45 is ousted, hope his voters will realise they aren’t really equipped to make political choices. Better abstain for the common good.


from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/2rnMZWp

The annals of “I’m not antivaccine,” part 25: We’re not antivaccine, we just publish posts about stopping the “Vaccine Holocaust” [Respectful Insolence]

As hard as it is to believe, it was over seven years ago that I started my Annals of “I’m not antivaccine” series. The idea was (and continues to be) to point out how the claim that many antivaccine activists proclaiming themselves to be “not antivaccine” but rather “vaccine safety advocates” is, depending on the specific antivaxer making it, a lie, a delusion, or perhaps both. I do that by simply highlighting bits of over-the-top rhetoric I see on antivaccine websites likening vaccines to all sorts of evil things, particularly the Holocaust. In the case of the very first entry in this series ever, I highlighted Kent Heckenlively’s likening vaccines to dynamite. Other examples rapidly followed, such as Kathy Blanco declaring that vaccines have NO VALUE [sic] (a sentiment echoed by a commenter), antivaxers likening vaccines to rape and human trafficking, and fraught comparisons to the Oklahoma City Bombing and the Titanic. Of course, through it all, there have Holocaust and Nazi comparisons. Oh, there have been so many Holocaust and Nazi comparisons, more than I can count, ranging from invoking Josef Mengele, the infamous doctor at Auschwitz known for conducting horrific medical experiments on prisoners, to general invocations of the Holocaust as an appropriate metaphor for “vaccine-induced autism,” to an antivaxer putting a no vaccine badge on herself and her child, likening it to the Yellow Star of David patches that Nazis forced Jews in Germany to wear.

I never realized back then that, seven years later, I’d be up to part 25 now, although, to be honest, I’ve exercised self-restraint. I could easily have done 100 parts to this series since 2010. I also never realized that Holocaust analogies would lose their power to shock, but damn if antivaxers haven’t used them so much that they elicit a yawn from me these days (at least most of the time). That’s not to say that it isn’t worth discussing such analogies, particularly when doing so serves a purpose. This time around, over at the antivaccine crank blog, Age of Autism, where the bloggers routinely oh-so-piously deny that they are “antivaccine,” a woman named Laura Hayes is providing me with just such a reason to discuss yet another vaccine/Holocaust analogy, because she goes beyond just ranting to advocating action for “vaccine safety activists in a post called A Dozen Things We Can Do RIGHT NOW to Help Stop the Vaccine Holocaust. (Ms. Hayes sure does appear to like her all caps.) You can read the full dozen for yourself; I’ll just “cherry pick” a few of the ones that interest me the most. But first let’s look at Ms. Hayes’ rationale in her introduction:

Every single week, without fail, there are tragic, heartbreaking stories of how vaccines have decimated or ended more lives. These stories are unending, they just keep coming.

Yet, doctors and nurses, who have become some bizarre type of pre-programmed automatons, continue to vaccinate day in and day out, despite the evidence of harm in their patients. It is as though they are brain dead, the “Stepford Wives” of Big Pharma, incapable of connecting that which they are injecting to that which they are then seeing and treating in their patients. Instead of stopping, analyzing, and changing course, they blindly plow forward, wreaking unspeakable damage in the very ones they have taken an oath to not harm.

Every single doctor and nurse (and now pharmacist, too) who is presently vaccinating the health, well being, and life out of their patients needs to stop, read the vaccine package inserts word for word, and then read critical analyses of vaccines and their ingredients that have not been written by those profiting directly or indirectly from vaccines. There can be no more excuses for or tolerance of the medical malpractice of injecting highly toxic, havoc-wreaking vaccines into people, followed by an inexcusable and callous disregard for the fallout, and a refusal to immediately stop that which is causing harm.

Extra credit for invoking the title of Andrew Wakefield’s book! Well, done! Excellent posterior smooching! Of course, there is no evidence for any of Ms. Hayes’ assertions about vaccines, other than that doctors and nurses continue to vaccinate. The reason, of course, is because vaccines are one of the safest, most effective medical interventions ever conceived by the human mind and created by human hands. Of course, because we physicians don’t buy into the pseudoscience and quackery that Hayes believes, to her, we must be “brain dead” or “Stepford Wives.” Our excuse for refusing to stop is simple: Vaccines work and they are safe. They do not cause all the conditions that antivaxers attribute to them.

Hayes tells us that more and more people are asking, “What can we do to stop this vaccine insanity and medical tyranny?” Whether that’s true or not, I have no idea. I’m sure some people are asking that, because some people believe that the moon landing never happened, that the Holocaust never happened, or that 9/11 was an inside job, and antivaccine activists easily scale the same eights of delusion as any of these conspiracy mongers. In any event, Hayes wants you—yes, you!—if you’re an antivaxer to take action immediately. I laughed out loud at the first one:

1. STOP giving business to doctors who vaccinate. When medical help is needed, let’s give our business to doctors and healers who are not harming and killing their patients with vaccines.

I can hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth of pediatricians everywhere who practice science-based medicine! This is one thing they would like more than anything else. Their loss of business would be minimal, and they wouldn’t have to waste untold hours explaining to yet another mother like Ms. Hayes that vaccines don’t cause autism, aren’t loaded with deadly “toxins,” and are indeed effective and safe, with such explanations falling on deaf ears. I can hear pediatricians everywhere saying, “Please, Ms. Hayes, don’t fling me in dat brier-patch!

Another one of Hayes’ suggestions later in the article is almost, but not quite, as hilarious:

Call your insurance company to request a list of doctors who don’t vaccinate (of course, don’t expect such a list to exist). For those who have a vaccine-injured child, or who have lost a child as a result of vaccines, or who have suffered vaccine injury themselves or in a loved one, frequenting a medical practice where vaccines are still administered is akin to having your public school assignment be one where you can hear children being beaten and abused in the next room, or simply having the knowledge that beatings and abuse are occurring somewhere on campus whether or not you can hear them. Being in such a place can trigger post traumatic stress symptoms, and we should not be forced to endure such an environment when seeking necessary medical care. If such a list does not yet exist, then request as a bare minimum a list of doctors who don’t require proof of vaccinations or that you vaccinate. Remind your insurance company that they are required to provide necessary medical care that is accessible. When doctors require proof of vaccinations or that you vaccinate, that makes necessary medical care inaccessible to those who do not want vaccinations. We need to demand that our insurance companies offer and cover that which they are required to provide, in addition to that which we, the paying customers, want, and which doesn’t destroy our health.

Hmmm. Not only is it a “Vaccine Holocaust” but to Ms. Hayes going to a medical practice where vaccines are still administered is akin to having your public school assignment be one where you can hear children being beaten and abused in the next room,” something she can’t endure and doesn’t think that anyone else should have to endure either. But, no, AoA is not antivaccine. Perish the thought! It just routinely publishes pieces by a woman who thinks there is a “Vaccine Holocaust” and likens vaccines to beating children.

There’s just a modicum of a grip on reality left in Ms. Hayes that she realizes that no insurance company is going to maintain a list of doctors who don’t vaccinate or even a list of doctors who don’t require proof of vaccination before accepting a child into their practice. Quite the contrary! Vaccination rates are considered a quality metric that is used in pay-for-performance programs. Can you guess why? Because preventing disease is better (and cheaper) than treating disease. Doctors might remain on insurance plans if they don’t vaccinate (clearly, there are antivaccine-friendly doctors who do), but any insurance company that becomes aware of such a physician is not going to publicize it.

The next one is not so funny, and is basically what many would consider harassment:

2. If you have a vaccine-injured child, return with your child to the doctor’s office where the harm was inflicted (for those whose child was killed by vaccines, take a picture of your child, or of their tombstone). Write a 1-pager detailing your child’s story, make 10 copies, and pass them out to the parents in the waiting room. Introduce them to your vaccine-injured child, and let them know that they were injured right there at that office. Include in your 1-pager and conversations how the doctor responded to your child’s vaccine injury, including whether or not they acknowledged it, reported it, helped your child after, or changed their vaccination practices as a result. Include whether or not any type of informed consent took place, including whether or not the doctor reviewed each and every vaccine package insert with you prior to administering vaccines to your child, and whether or not your doctor offered alternatives to vaccinations, including the option of not vaccinating. If entering the office is too intimidating or traumatic for you, consider the option of talking with parents in the parking lot before they take their child in for their appointment, and/or going with another parent and their vaccine-injured child. *If you no longer live near the doctor’s office where your child’s vaccine assault happened, take your child and your story to any local pediatrician’s office where the abusive practice of vaccination is still taking place.

Great. So basically she’s telling antivaxers to harass the patients of pediatricians, none of whom did her any harm, before getting to the pediatricians, none of whom did her any harm either, her delusion otherwise notwithstanding reality. This is the sort of thing that will not end well—for Hayes and anyone who tries to follow her example. Most likely the result will be the police being called to escort her off the premises. I also can’t help but note her obsession with package inserts. Package inserts are legal CYA documents. They are not scientific documents. Manufacturers list every potential adverse event ever observed, whether there is a link to the vaccine or not.

In any case, bothering parents just bringing their children to the pediatrician and potentially exposing them to disease by bringing your likely undervaccinated child along (given that most antivaxers stop vaccinating once they become convinced that a vaccine caused their child’s autism) to potentially expose them to disease is a profoundly self-centered strategy. Hayes isn’t trying to educate other parents; she’s drawing attention to herself. It’s all about her and gaining attention for her “plight” and that of her child, which is why she also advocates going to pharmacies that administer vaccines to pester pharmacists about whether or not they read every line off the package insert when giving informed consent and then bother the store manager with the same questions, while spreading antivaccine misinformation.

A lot of Ms. Hayes’s other ideas are in the same vein and only marginally less obnocious. For instance, she advocates printing up a bunch of cards with brief lists of websites and “resources” chock full of antivaccine misinformation on them to pass out to expectant mothers. She also suggests approaching pastors and boards of places of worship to try to win them over, making signs to display, and starting a private e-mail group for local antivaxers to use to strategize, all dashed with a little sprinkle of paranoia:

Vet members carefully, keeping a watchful eye out for “controlled opposition” looking to infiltrate. Gather addresses and phone numbers, too, in preparation for a time when electronic communications may no longer be advisable or possible.

Yes, because the government is definitely coming to force you to vaccinate, just like it’s definitely going to take away your guns. Oh, wait. It hasn’t, and it’s not going to. In a flourish of drama, Ms. Hayes asks for the help of AoA readers in coming up with more ideas to stop this “Vaccine Holocaust.” The results are predictable—and depressing.

First, there’s joe, who can’t resist injecting (if you’ll excuse the term) a bit of misogyny as foul as those toxins antivaxers imagine to be in vaccines. It’s so nasty as to be worth posting in its entirety to make my point (also in case AoA moderators get rid of it):

I have a friend who is a pediatric nurse practitioner. I’m convinced it’s willful ignorance with her. She doesn’t know about vaccine dangers because she doesn’t WANT to know.

Look, most pediatric docters in the U.S. are women. Most pediatric nurse practitioners are women. Heck, most nurses, LPNs, and medical assistants are women. WOMEN ARE PROPAGATING THE VACCINE HOLOCAUST.

Sorry if that hurts. They don’t have to participate in the holocaust. They should be nurturing. But they’re killers. They are. They should find other work. But it’s not going to happen.

People in the healthcare field are followers. Laura, I love your passion, but please take this into account. The world today is not even close to what it was 10 years ago. People have lost their minds.

I organized a VAXXED movie showing and NO ONE from the conventional healthcare field came. They’re afraid and suspicious, and dismissive, and snide. They’re not coming out of their comfort zone. Ain’t happening.

These fascist women vaccine providers must be stopped. But they will not by themselves.

I know you’re shocked. But, but, but…it CAN’T be women doing this!!! Oh yes it can, and is. Walk into ANY pediatricians office and look at the staff – women. Including the doctor behind it all. Female.

Of course, the “Tbought Leaders” are all female, too. Melinda Gates, anyone? Chelsea Clinton, anyone? Young Barbara Bush and her Global Healthcorps? Do you know what her organization does? Just guess.

I bet joe’s a Trump supporter too.

Here’s the one that really disturbed me, though, as it hits very close to home. Not quite my institution close to home, but my medical alma mater close to home, which is bad enough. A nurse rants:

I am very frustrated by this article, Here is why: I am the mother of a severely vaccine injured 21 year old boy and a nurse. I work at Michigan Medicine. I am not allowed to say anything at work except the company script to patients concerning vaccination. I have been disciplined for not following this script when asked questions about vaccine by patients. Patients ask me my opinion which I am not allowed to give per Michigan Medicine policy. When I did answer one of these questions honestly some patients turned me in to my boss. They assured me also that talk about my vaccine injured child even to co-workers will lead to more discipline ending in my termination. They told me that when asked about my son I must say he is fine or doing well. If I could quit I would.

She is also very much opposed to the flu vaccine:

I am allowed to avoid vaccine for flu IF I WEAR A YELLOW MASK at all times in the hospital. This mask does not filter tiny viral particles. It is utilized to co worse me and others to take the flu shot. I have A LOT of difficulty breathing while I wear this. I would work with a ball and chain around my ankle to avoid taking vaccine.

It’s good to know that my medical alma mater is doing the right thing and not letting its employees spout antivaccine misinformation to parents or try to persuade them not to vaccinate. It’s also good to know that Michigan is requiring its employees with direct patient care responsibilities to be vaccinated against the flu. It’s not so good that it allows an nurse with what can only be described as radically antivaccine views to continue to work in a capacity where she deals with patients and vaccines. I actually feel sorry for this nurse in that she clearly has a hard life dealing with a special needs child who is no longer a child. It’s also very sad to see how far down the rabbit hole she’s gone, having taken her child to Dr. Jeff Bradstreet, who apparently administered 85 doses of IV chelation therapy, which clearly didn’t work (because chelation therapy doesn’t work for autism).

Ms. Hayes is, of course, totally sympathetic with the nurse’s plight, but in the wrong way, as in supporting her antivaccine stand. Then a commenter named Linda1 misinterprets the Florence Nightingale pledge, which she invokes at the end of her comment:

I am truly sorry for all that you’ve gone through and for what you face at work every day. But what Laura says is right. A nursing license is not a permit to act unethically. In fact, it is a license to stand firm to protect patients and to deliver the best care and teaching, even if that means standing up to a morally bankrupt hospital system and loss of employment. Financial need is never an excuse for wrong doing. If your job tried to force you to compromise on the principles that you are legally and morally obligated to uphold according to your license, then you have no choice but to either seek another line of work or work somewhere else where you will be free to provide good care. If all healthcare workers refused to do harm, or to be silenced when patients are being deceived, the holocaust would end. The only reason why it continues is because people rationalize that they have no choice but to participate. But they do have a choice.

A nursing license also requires that the nurse practice her profession according to the accepted evidence-based standard of care. Frightening patients and parents out of vaccinating is not practicing according to that standard of care. In fact, one thing that drives me crazy about state licensing boards for healthcare physicians is that they do nothing about antivaccine physicians, and they do even less against antivaccine nurses, no matter how much they endanger the public. In any case, about the only thing Linda1 and I agree on is that this nurse should not be working where she is working, albeit for incredibly different reasons. I predict that whenever our nurse commenter either decides to leave her job or is fired from it she’ll end up working for an alternative medicine practitioner or going into alternative medicine herself, perhaps naturopathy.

So, to recap. What we’ve learned from Ms. Hayes and AoA commenters is that there is a Vaccine Holocaust of autism and neurologic disorders that antivaxers need to do something about. Also, their resistance is like that of partisans in Nazi-occupied territories. (Never mind that I don’t see any “vaccine safety advocates” being gunned down, and, no, I haven’t forgotten Jeff Bradstreet, who killed himself as the FDA zeroed in on his quack clinic.) Most importantly, doctors and nurses who vaccinate are the perpetrators of this holocaust who could stop it if they would only speak up. They are thus collaborators who are risking their licenses and going against their Hippocratic Oaths or Florence Nightingale Oaths by pumping horrific toxins into their patients in the form of vaccines.

Tell me again how all this is “not antivaccine” and how AoA could be “not antivaccine” despite publishing dreck like this over and over again. I’m not getting it. After all, it’s not as though Ms. Hayes doesn’t have a copious history of rhetoric very much like this over the course of several years.



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As hard as it is to believe, it was over seven years ago that I started my Annals of “I’m not antivaccine” series. The idea was (and continues to be) to point out how the claim that many antivaccine activists proclaiming themselves to be “not antivaccine” but rather “vaccine safety advocates” is, depending on the specific antivaxer making it, a lie, a delusion, or perhaps both. I do that by simply highlighting bits of over-the-top rhetoric I see on antivaccine websites likening vaccines to all sorts of evil things, particularly the Holocaust. In the case of the very first entry in this series ever, I highlighted Kent Heckenlively’s likening vaccines to dynamite. Other examples rapidly followed, such as Kathy Blanco declaring that vaccines have NO VALUE [sic] (a sentiment echoed by a commenter), antivaxers likening vaccines to rape and human trafficking, and fraught comparisons to the Oklahoma City Bombing and the Titanic. Of course, through it all, there have Holocaust and Nazi comparisons. Oh, there have been so many Holocaust and Nazi comparisons, more than I can count, ranging from invoking Josef Mengele, the infamous doctor at Auschwitz known for conducting horrific medical experiments on prisoners, to general invocations of the Holocaust as an appropriate metaphor for “vaccine-induced autism,” to an antivaxer putting a no vaccine badge on herself and her child, likening it to the Yellow Star of David patches that Nazis forced Jews in Germany to wear.

I never realized back then that, seven years later, I’d be up to part 25 now, although, to be honest, I’ve exercised self-restraint. I could easily have done 100 parts to this series since 2010. I also never realized that Holocaust analogies would lose their power to shock, but damn if antivaxers haven’t used them so much that they elicit a yawn from me these days (at least most of the time). That’s not to say that it isn’t worth discussing such analogies, particularly when doing so serves a purpose. This time around, over at the antivaccine crank blog, Age of Autism, where the bloggers routinely oh-so-piously deny that they are “antivaccine,” a woman named Laura Hayes is providing me with just such a reason to discuss yet another vaccine/Holocaust analogy, because she goes beyond just ranting to advocating action for “vaccine safety activists in a post called A Dozen Things We Can Do RIGHT NOW to Help Stop the Vaccine Holocaust. (Ms. Hayes sure does appear to like her all caps.) You can read the full dozen for yourself; I’ll just “cherry pick” a few of the ones that interest me the most. But first let’s look at Ms. Hayes’ rationale in her introduction:

Every single week, without fail, there are tragic, heartbreaking stories of how vaccines have decimated or ended more lives. These stories are unending, they just keep coming.

Yet, doctors and nurses, who have become some bizarre type of pre-programmed automatons, continue to vaccinate day in and day out, despite the evidence of harm in their patients. It is as though they are brain dead, the “Stepford Wives” of Big Pharma, incapable of connecting that which they are injecting to that which they are then seeing and treating in their patients. Instead of stopping, analyzing, and changing course, they blindly plow forward, wreaking unspeakable damage in the very ones they have taken an oath to not harm.

Every single doctor and nurse (and now pharmacist, too) who is presently vaccinating the health, well being, and life out of their patients needs to stop, read the vaccine package inserts word for word, and then read critical analyses of vaccines and their ingredients that have not been written by those profiting directly or indirectly from vaccines. There can be no more excuses for or tolerance of the medical malpractice of injecting highly toxic, havoc-wreaking vaccines into people, followed by an inexcusable and callous disregard for the fallout, and a refusal to immediately stop that which is causing harm.

Extra credit for invoking the title of Andrew Wakefield’s book! Well, done! Excellent posterior smooching! Of course, there is no evidence for any of Ms. Hayes’ assertions about vaccines, other than that doctors and nurses continue to vaccinate. The reason, of course, is because vaccines are one of the safest, most effective medical interventions ever conceived by the human mind and created by human hands. Of course, because we physicians don’t buy into the pseudoscience and quackery that Hayes believes, to her, we must be “brain dead” or “Stepford Wives.” Our excuse for refusing to stop is simple: Vaccines work and they are safe. They do not cause all the conditions that antivaxers attribute to them.

Hayes tells us that more and more people are asking, “What can we do to stop this vaccine insanity and medical tyranny?” Whether that’s true or not, I have no idea. I’m sure some people are asking that, because some people believe that the moon landing never happened, that the Holocaust never happened, or that 9/11 was an inside job, and antivaccine activists easily scale the same eights of delusion as any of these conspiracy mongers. In any event, Hayes wants you—yes, you!—if you’re an antivaxer to take action immediately. I laughed out loud at the first one:

1. STOP giving business to doctors who vaccinate. When medical help is needed, let’s give our business to doctors and healers who are not harming and killing their patients with vaccines.

I can hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth of pediatricians everywhere who practice science-based medicine! This is one thing they would like more than anything else. Their loss of business would be minimal, and they wouldn’t have to waste untold hours explaining to yet another mother like Ms. Hayes that vaccines don’t cause autism, aren’t loaded with deadly “toxins,” and are indeed effective and safe, with such explanations falling on deaf ears. I can hear pediatricians everywhere saying, “Please, Ms. Hayes, don’t fling me in dat brier-patch!

Another one of Hayes’ suggestions later in the article is almost, but not quite, as hilarious:

Call your insurance company to request a list of doctors who don’t vaccinate (of course, don’t expect such a list to exist). For those who have a vaccine-injured child, or who have lost a child as a result of vaccines, or who have suffered vaccine injury themselves or in a loved one, frequenting a medical practice where vaccines are still administered is akin to having your public school assignment be one where you can hear children being beaten and abused in the next room, or simply having the knowledge that beatings and abuse are occurring somewhere on campus whether or not you can hear them. Being in such a place can trigger post traumatic stress symptoms, and we should not be forced to endure such an environment when seeking necessary medical care. If such a list does not yet exist, then request as a bare minimum a list of doctors who don’t require proof of vaccinations or that you vaccinate. Remind your insurance company that they are required to provide necessary medical care that is accessible. When doctors require proof of vaccinations or that you vaccinate, that makes necessary medical care inaccessible to those who do not want vaccinations. We need to demand that our insurance companies offer and cover that which they are required to provide, in addition to that which we, the paying customers, want, and which doesn’t destroy our health.

Hmmm. Not only is it a “Vaccine Holocaust” but to Ms. Hayes going to a medical practice where vaccines are still administered is akin to having your public school assignment be one where you can hear children being beaten and abused in the next room,” something she can’t endure and doesn’t think that anyone else should have to endure either. But, no, AoA is not antivaccine. Perish the thought! It just routinely publishes pieces by a woman who thinks there is a “Vaccine Holocaust” and likens vaccines to beating children.

There’s just a modicum of a grip on reality left in Ms. Hayes that she realizes that no insurance company is going to maintain a list of doctors who don’t vaccinate or even a list of doctors who don’t require proof of vaccination before accepting a child into their practice. Quite the contrary! Vaccination rates are considered a quality metric that is used in pay-for-performance programs. Can you guess why? Because preventing disease is better (and cheaper) than treating disease. Doctors might remain on insurance plans if they don’t vaccinate (clearly, there are antivaccine-friendly doctors who do), but any insurance company that becomes aware of such a physician is not going to publicize it.

The next one is not so funny, and is basically what many would consider harassment:

2. If you have a vaccine-injured child, return with your child to the doctor’s office where the harm was inflicted (for those whose child was killed by vaccines, take a picture of your child, or of their tombstone). Write a 1-pager detailing your child’s story, make 10 copies, and pass them out to the parents in the waiting room. Introduce them to your vaccine-injured child, and let them know that they were injured right there at that office. Include in your 1-pager and conversations how the doctor responded to your child’s vaccine injury, including whether or not they acknowledged it, reported it, helped your child after, or changed their vaccination practices as a result. Include whether or not any type of informed consent took place, including whether or not the doctor reviewed each and every vaccine package insert with you prior to administering vaccines to your child, and whether or not your doctor offered alternatives to vaccinations, including the option of not vaccinating. If entering the office is too intimidating or traumatic for you, consider the option of talking with parents in the parking lot before they take their child in for their appointment, and/or going with another parent and their vaccine-injured child. *If you no longer live near the doctor’s office where your child’s vaccine assault happened, take your child and your story to any local pediatrician’s office where the abusive practice of vaccination is still taking place.

Great. So basically she’s telling antivaxers to harass the patients of pediatricians, none of whom did her any harm, before getting to the pediatricians, none of whom did her any harm either, her delusion otherwise notwithstanding reality. This is the sort of thing that will not end well—for Hayes and anyone who tries to follow her example. Most likely the result will be the police being called to escort her off the premises. I also can’t help but note her obsession with package inserts. Package inserts are legal CYA documents. They are not scientific documents. Manufacturers list every potential adverse event ever observed, whether there is a link to the vaccine or not.

In any case, bothering parents just bringing their children to the pediatrician and potentially exposing them to disease by bringing your likely undervaccinated child along (given that most antivaxers stop vaccinating once they become convinced that a vaccine caused their child’s autism) to potentially expose them to disease is a profoundly self-centered strategy. Hayes isn’t trying to educate other parents; she’s drawing attention to herself. It’s all about her and gaining attention for her “plight” and that of her child, which is why she also advocates going to pharmacies that administer vaccines to pester pharmacists about whether or not they read every line off the package insert when giving informed consent and then bother the store manager with the same questions, while spreading antivaccine misinformation.

A lot of Ms. Hayes’s other ideas are in the same vein and only marginally less obnocious. For instance, she advocates printing up a bunch of cards with brief lists of websites and “resources” chock full of antivaccine misinformation on them to pass out to expectant mothers. She also suggests approaching pastors and boards of places of worship to try to win them over, making signs to display, and starting a private e-mail group for local antivaxers to use to strategize, all dashed with a little sprinkle of paranoia:

Vet members carefully, keeping a watchful eye out for “controlled opposition” looking to infiltrate. Gather addresses and phone numbers, too, in preparation for a time when electronic communications may no longer be advisable or possible.

Yes, because the government is definitely coming to force you to vaccinate, just like it’s definitely going to take away your guns. Oh, wait. It hasn’t, and it’s not going to. In a flourish of drama, Ms. Hayes asks for the help of AoA readers in coming up with more ideas to stop this “Vaccine Holocaust.” The results are predictable—and depressing.

First, there’s joe, who can’t resist injecting (if you’ll excuse the term) a bit of misogyny as foul as those toxins antivaxers imagine to be in vaccines. It’s so nasty as to be worth posting in its entirety to make my point (also in case AoA moderators get rid of it):

I have a friend who is a pediatric nurse practitioner. I’m convinced it’s willful ignorance with her. She doesn’t know about vaccine dangers because she doesn’t WANT to know.

Look, most pediatric docters in the U.S. are women. Most pediatric nurse practitioners are women. Heck, most nurses, LPNs, and medical assistants are women. WOMEN ARE PROPAGATING THE VACCINE HOLOCAUST.

Sorry if that hurts. They don’t have to participate in the holocaust. They should be nurturing. But they’re killers. They are. They should find other work. But it’s not going to happen.

People in the healthcare field are followers. Laura, I love your passion, but please take this into account. The world today is not even close to what it was 10 years ago. People have lost their minds.

I organized a VAXXED movie showing and NO ONE from the conventional healthcare field came. They’re afraid and suspicious, and dismissive, and snide. They’re not coming out of their comfort zone. Ain’t happening.

These fascist women vaccine providers must be stopped. But they will not by themselves.

I know you’re shocked. But, but, but…it CAN’T be women doing this!!! Oh yes it can, and is. Walk into ANY pediatricians office and look at the staff – women. Including the doctor behind it all. Female.

Of course, the “Tbought Leaders” are all female, too. Melinda Gates, anyone? Chelsea Clinton, anyone? Young Barbara Bush and her Global Healthcorps? Do you know what her organization does? Just guess.

I bet joe’s a Trump supporter too.

Here’s the one that really disturbed me, though, as it hits very close to home. Not quite my institution close to home, but my medical alma mater close to home, which is bad enough. A nurse rants:

I am very frustrated by this article, Here is why: I am the mother of a severely vaccine injured 21 year old boy and a nurse. I work at Michigan Medicine. I am not allowed to say anything at work except the company script to patients concerning vaccination. I have been disciplined for not following this script when asked questions about vaccine by patients. Patients ask me my opinion which I am not allowed to give per Michigan Medicine policy. When I did answer one of these questions honestly some patients turned me in to my boss. They assured me also that talk about my vaccine injured child even to co-workers will lead to more discipline ending in my termination. They told me that when asked about my son I must say he is fine or doing well. If I could quit I would.

She is also very much opposed to the flu vaccine:

I am allowed to avoid vaccine for flu IF I WEAR A YELLOW MASK at all times in the hospital. This mask does not filter tiny viral particles. It is utilized to co worse me and others to take the flu shot. I have A LOT of difficulty breathing while I wear this. I would work with a ball and chain around my ankle to avoid taking vaccine.

It’s good to know that my medical alma mater is doing the right thing and not letting its employees spout antivaccine misinformation to parents or try to persuade them not to vaccinate. It’s also good to know that Michigan is requiring its employees with direct patient care responsibilities to be vaccinated against the flu. It’s not so good that it allows an nurse with what can only be described as radically antivaccine views to continue to work in a capacity where she deals with patients and vaccines. I actually feel sorry for this nurse in that she clearly has a hard life dealing with a special needs child who is no longer a child. It’s also very sad to see how far down the rabbit hole she’s gone, having taken her child to Dr. Jeff Bradstreet, who apparently administered 85 doses of IV chelation therapy, which clearly didn’t work (because chelation therapy doesn’t work for autism).

Ms. Hayes is, of course, totally sympathetic with the nurse’s plight, but in the wrong way, as in supporting her antivaccine stand. Then a commenter named Linda1 misinterprets the Florence Nightingale pledge, which she invokes at the end of her comment:

I am truly sorry for all that you’ve gone through and for what you face at work every day. But what Laura says is right. A nursing license is not a permit to act unethically. In fact, it is a license to stand firm to protect patients and to deliver the best care and teaching, even if that means standing up to a morally bankrupt hospital system and loss of employment. Financial need is never an excuse for wrong doing. If your job tried to force you to compromise on the principles that you are legally and morally obligated to uphold according to your license, then you have no choice but to either seek another line of work or work somewhere else where you will be free to provide good care. If all healthcare workers refused to do harm, or to be silenced when patients are being deceived, the holocaust would end. The only reason why it continues is because people rationalize that they have no choice but to participate. But they do have a choice.

A nursing license also requires that the nurse practice her profession according to the accepted evidence-based standard of care. Frightening patients and parents out of vaccinating is not practicing according to that standard of care. In fact, one thing that drives me crazy about state licensing boards for healthcare physicians is that they do nothing about antivaccine physicians, and they do even less against antivaccine nurses, no matter how much they endanger the public. In any case, about the only thing Linda1 and I agree on is that this nurse should not be working where she is working, albeit for incredibly different reasons. I predict that whenever our nurse commenter either decides to leave her job or is fired from it she’ll end up working for an alternative medicine practitioner or going into alternative medicine herself, perhaps naturopathy.

So, to recap. What we’ve learned from Ms. Hayes and AoA commenters is that there is a Vaccine Holocaust of autism and neurologic disorders that antivaxers need to do something about. Also, their resistance is like that of partisans in Nazi-occupied territories. (Never mind that I don’t see any “vaccine safety advocates” being gunned down, and, no, I haven’t forgotten Jeff Bradstreet, who killed himself as the FDA zeroed in on his quack clinic.) Most importantly, doctors and nurses who vaccinate are the perpetrators of this holocaust who could stop it if they would only speak up. They are thus collaborators who are risking their licenses and going against their Hippocratic Oaths or Florence Nightingale Oaths by pumping horrific toxins into their patients in the form of vaccines.

Tell me again how all this is “not antivaccine” and how AoA could be “not antivaccine” despite publishing dreck like this over and over again. I’m not getting it. After all, it’s not as though Ms. Hayes doesn’t have a copious history of rhetoric very much like this over the course of several years.



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Top 5 questions about tornadoes

Tornado seven miles south of Anadarko, Oklahoma, May 3, 1999. Image via OAR/ERL/National Severe Storms Laboratory/Flickr

Paul Markowski, Pennsylvania State University and Yvette Richardson, Pennsylvania State University

Editor’s note: May and June are typically peak months for tornadoes in North America. We [The Conversation] asked Penn State meteorology professors Paul Markowski and Yvette Richardson to explain why tornadoes form, how to stay safe if you’re near one and whether climate change is affecting tornado patterns. The Conversation

1. Where are tornadoes most likely to occur?

Most headline-making tornadoes are spawned by what are known as supercell thunderstorms. These are large, intense storms characterized by an updraft (rising air) that rotates.

Thunderstorms develop when warm, humid air near the surface lies beneath a thick layer of air in which the temperature decreases rapidly with height. We call this type of atmosphere “unstable,” meaning that when air is nudged upward, the water vapor that it contains condenses. This releases heat, making the air warmer than its surroundings. The air becomes buoyant and rises, creating the towering clouds we associate with thunderstorms.

The second key condition for supercell formation is wind shear – large changes in wind at different levels. Winds at different altitudes blowing at different speeds and/or from different directions is associated with horizontally spinning air, like a rolling pin. As this horizontally spinning air flows into the updraft, the spin is tilted into the vertical, creating a rotating updraft.

Tornadoes are especially likely to be spawned by supercell thunderstorms when the lowest altitudes are particularly humid and possess exceptionally strong wind shear. These conditions are more likely to come together in certain locations, such as the U.S. Great Plains and Southeast.

2. How do actual tornadoes form?

Not all supercell thunderstorms produce tornadoes. Once wind shear has created a rotating updraft in our supercell thunderstorm, other processes develop rotation near the ground, in the cool air underneath the storm, which we call its “cold pool.” The cold pool is produced mostly by the evaporation of rain.

Within and beneath the storm, warm air is rising and cooler air is descending. As air descends and flows through the cold pool, the horizontal differences in temperature and acceleration of air along the ground combine to produce more horizontal spin. If there is strong upward suction from the overlying rotating updraft of the supercell storm, and the air in the cold pool is not too cold, the horizontally spinning air can be tipped toward the vertical and sucked upward. It also can be contracted inward and spin faster, just as skaters increase the speed of their spins by pulling in their arms. This forms the tornado.

Scientists’ present understanding of how a tornado develops in a supercell thunderstorm. Image via Paul Markowski

3. How precisely can we predict tornado strikes?

In the past decade, forecasters have become skillful at identifying conditions that can support strong tornadoes – those rated EF2 or higher on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center routinely predicts large outbreaks days in advance. “High-risk” outlooks capture most major tornado events, and strong tornadoes rarely occur outside of tornado watches. We have less ability to forecast tornadoes in more marginal situations, such as within non-supercell storms.

Even if the environment is extremely favorable for supercell tornadoes, forecasters have limited ability to say when or if a specific storm will produce a tornado. Researchers are studying triggers for tornado production, such as small-scale downdraft surges and descending precipitation shafts on a supercell storm’s rear flank, and processes that sustain tornadoes once they form.

We don’t understand tornado maintenance well, or how tornadoes might be affected by interactions with obstacles such as terrain and buildings. This means that when a tornado is occurring, forecasters have limited ability to tell the public how long they expect it to last.

4. What should I do during a tornado warning?

Basements, storm cellars or “safe rooms” that meet federal guidelines provide excellent protection. If none of these is available, the best strategy is to go to the lowest floor of a sturdy building and put as many walls between you and the tornado as possible. In other words, shelter in an interior room, such as a closet or bathroom. Also, make sure you are wearing good shoes. If your area takes a direct hit, you do not want to walk through a debris field barefoot.

Don’t chase tornadoes without professional training. Observations from spotters are valuable to forecasters who are issuing warnings, but they can be made from a distance. We don’t need people driving in harm’s way to know that a dangerous storm is approaching.

Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens surveys damage to homes in Oak Grove that were destroyed by a tornado on March 6, 2017. Image via AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

5. Is climate change making tornadoes bigger or more frequent?

It’s hard to say. Reliable U.S. records of tornadoes go back only to roughly 1950, and records outside of the United States are even less complete. Thanks to storm chasing and the spread of camera phones, more tornadoes are counted today compared with yesteryear, but that does not necessarily mean that more are occurring. And there’s a lot of natural variability from year to year. Over the past decade, the annual U.S. tornado count has ranged from 886 to 1,690 storms per year.

Estimates of wind speeds based on post-storm damage surveys can be off by 50 percent or more. And many tornadoes in remote areas leave no clues as to how strong their winds were.

Most climate models predict that there will be more days per year when the atmosphere would have sufficient instability and wind shear to support tornadoes. But we need to be careful in interpreting this result. Climate models don’t capture tornadoes, their parent thunderstorms or nuances in the lowest level of the atmosphere that affect tornado formation. So it is hard to say whether there will be more tornadoes, even if tornado-supporting environments become more common.

Paul Markowski, Professor of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University and Yvette Richardson, Professor of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Bottom line: Two meteorology professors answer questions about tornadoes.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2rjhR8A

Tornado seven miles south of Anadarko, Oklahoma, May 3, 1999. Image via OAR/ERL/National Severe Storms Laboratory/Flickr

Paul Markowski, Pennsylvania State University and Yvette Richardson, Pennsylvania State University

Editor’s note: May and June are typically peak months for tornadoes in North America. We [The Conversation] asked Penn State meteorology professors Paul Markowski and Yvette Richardson to explain why tornadoes form, how to stay safe if you’re near one and whether climate change is affecting tornado patterns. The Conversation

1. Where are tornadoes most likely to occur?

Most headline-making tornadoes are spawned by what are known as supercell thunderstorms. These are large, intense storms characterized by an updraft (rising air) that rotates.

Thunderstorms develop when warm, humid air near the surface lies beneath a thick layer of air in which the temperature decreases rapidly with height. We call this type of atmosphere “unstable,” meaning that when air is nudged upward, the water vapor that it contains condenses. This releases heat, making the air warmer than its surroundings. The air becomes buoyant and rises, creating the towering clouds we associate with thunderstorms.

The second key condition for supercell formation is wind shear – large changes in wind at different levels. Winds at different altitudes blowing at different speeds and/or from different directions is associated with horizontally spinning air, like a rolling pin. As this horizontally spinning air flows into the updraft, the spin is tilted into the vertical, creating a rotating updraft.

Tornadoes are especially likely to be spawned by supercell thunderstorms when the lowest altitudes are particularly humid and possess exceptionally strong wind shear. These conditions are more likely to come together in certain locations, such as the U.S. Great Plains and Southeast.

2. How do actual tornadoes form?

Not all supercell thunderstorms produce tornadoes. Once wind shear has created a rotating updraft in our supercell thunderstorm, other processes develop rotation near the ground, in the cool air underneath the storm, which we call its “cold pool.” The cold pool is produced mostly by the evaporation of rain.

Within and beneath the storm, warm air is rising and cooler air is descending. As air descends and flows through the cold pool, the horizontal differences in temperature and acceleration of air along the ground combine to produce more horizontal spin. If there is strong upward suction from the overlying rotating updraft of the supercell storm, and the air in the cold pool is not too cold, the horizontally spinning air can be tipped toward the vertical and sucked upward. It also can be contracted inward and spin faster, just as skaters increase the speed of their spins by pulling in their arms. This forms the tornado.

Scientists’ present understanding of how a tornado develops in a supercell thunderstorm. Image via Paul Markowski

3. How precisely can we predict tornado strikes?

In the past decade, forecasters have become skillful at identifying conditions that can support strong tornadoes – those rated EF2 or higher on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center routinely predicts large outbreaks days in advance. “High-risk” outlooks capture most major tornado events, and strong tornadoes rarely occur outside of tornado watches. We have less ability to forecast tornadoes in more marginal situations, such as within non-supercell storms.

Even if the environment is extremely favorable for supercell tornadoes, forecasters have limited ability to say when or if a specific storm will produce a tornado. Researchers are studying triggers for tornado production, such as small-scale downdraft surges and descending precipitation shafts on a supercell storm’s rear flank, and processes that sustain tornadoes once they form.

We don’t understand tornado maintenance well, or how tornadoes might be affected by interactions with obstacles such as terrain and buildings. This means that when a tornado is occurring, forecasters have limited ability to tell the public how long they expect it to last.

4. What should I do during a tornado warning?

Basements, storm cellars or “safe rooms” that meet federal guidelines provide excellent protection. If none of these is available, the best strategy is to go to the lowest floor of a sturdy building and put as many walls between you and the tornado as possible. In other words, shelter in an interior room, such as a closet or bathroom. Also, make sure you are wearing good shoes. If your area takes a direct hit, you do not want to walk through a debris field barefoot.

Don’t chase tornadoes without professional training. Observations from spotters are valuable to forecasters who are issuing warnings, but they can be made from a distance. We don’t need people driving in harm’s way to know that a dangerous storm is approaching.

Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens surveys damage to homes in Oak Grove that were destroyed by a tornado on March 6, 2017. Image via AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

5. Is climate change making tornadoes bigger or more frequent?

It’s hard to say. Reliable U.S. records of tornadoes go back only to roughly 1950, and records outside of the United States are even less complete. Thanks to storm chasing and the spread of camera phones, more tornadoes are counted today compared with yesteryear, but that does not necessarily mean that more are occurring. And there’s a lot of natural variability from year to year. Over the past decade, the annual U.S. tornado count has ranged from 886 to 1,690 storms per year.

Estimates of wind speeds based on post-storm damage surveys can be off by 50 percent or more. And many tornadoes in remote areas leave no clues as to how strong their winds were.

Most climate models predict that there will be more days per year when the atmosphere would have sufficient instability and wind shear to support tornadoes. But we need to be careful in interpreting this result. Climate models don’t capture tornadoes, their parent thunderstorms or nuances in the lowest level of the atmosphere that affect tornado formation. So it is hard to say whether there will be more tornadoes, even if tornado-supporting environments become more common.

Paul Markowski, Professor of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University and Yvette Richardson, Professor of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Bottom line: Two meteorology professors answer questions about tornadoes.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2rjhR8A

Biblical signs in the sky?

Just a few of the results of a Google image search for the words September 23, 2017 and Revelation 12.

Originally printed at The Catholic Astronomer. Re-printed here with permission.

One day last fall I was working in my office when my desk phone rang. It was a reader of The Catholic Astronomer, calling me with a question. He asked why the Vatican Observatory blog was full of discussion on black holes or whatnot, when there was something much more momentous to talk about.

It turns out that the momentous thing to which my caller was referring was an arrangement of celestial bodies that will occur this year (2017) on September 23. On that date, according to various Internet sources, the heavens themselves will be a tableau of Revelation 12 in the Bible:

A great sign appeared in the sky, a woman clothed with the sun, with the moon under her feet, and on her head a crown of 12 stars. She was with child and wailed aloud in pain as she labored to give birth … She gave birth to a son, a male child, destined to rule all the nations with an iron rod.

On September 23, 2017 the sun will be in the zodiac constellation Virgo — “a woman clothed with the sun”. The moon will be at the feet of Virgo — “with the moon under her feet”. The ‘nine’ stars of the zodiac constellation Leo, plus three planets (Mercury, Venus, and Mars), will be at the head of Virgo — “on her head a crown of 12 stars”. The planet Jupiter will be in the center of Virgo, and, as the weeks pass after September 23, Jupiter will exit Virgo to the east, past her feet, so to speak — “She was with child and wailed aloud in pain as she labored to give birth”. Jupiter is the largest of the planets, the “king” of the planets, so to speak — “She gave birth to a son, a male child, destined to rule all the nations with an iron rod”.

Must this not be a sign of something momentous, like the Internet sources say?

Now, I know that the readers of this blog are diverse. People with interest in astronomy are a diverse group! And you all will have diverse reactions to this question. Some of you are probably saying right now, “what a bunch of nonsense!” Others of you may be thinking that my caller had a good point, and you would like to learn more. Fortunately, I am a community college professor! Community college people are the ‘A-Team’ of the academic world (as in B.A., Hannibal, and the crew from the TV show and the movie — who are tougher than anyone else and able to save the day using duct tape, PVC pipe, and a butane lighter). We thrive on diversity! No question phases us!

We know that there are a lot of smart people out there who have not had much formal education in a topic like astronomy, and that interest in questions like this reflects a basic interest in astronomy combined with interest in religion and scripture.

My caller was familiar with the Stellarium sky software. He could call up the skies of September 23, 2017 on Stellarium and see for himself that this celestial arrangement was a real thing. His was a reasonable question. Scientists need to be able to answer questions people have like this one, without treating the questions as nonsense, because the questions will not go away just because they are dismissed. And thus before long I was having a nice conversation with the caller, and I ended up telling him I would look into his question, and write a post on this topic.

But I said it was unlikely to be the post he was looking for. He was OK with that.

And so, Mr. Caller:

The constellation Virgo on September 23, 2017, according to the Stellarium sky software. The moon’s size is exaggerated for visibility. See the annotated image below. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

Green arrows show the “9” stars of Leo. Blue arrows show the planets Mercury, Venus, and Mars. Red arrow is Jupiter. Violet arrow is the moon (shown enlarged). The sun is at Virgo’s shoulder. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

First, in one year, thanks to the Earth’s annual orbit, the sun travels the entirety of the ecliptic, and thus passes through every one of the 12 constellations of the zodiac. The sun is in Virgo every September.

Second, in one month the moon goes through its cycle of phases, and travels the entirety of the ecliptic, and thus passes through every constellation of the zodiac—all owed to the period of the moon’s orbit being one month. Therefore there is always a day or two every year when the sun is in Virgo and the moon is just to the east of Virgo (just past the “feet”).

So, the celestial “woman clothed with the sun with the moon at her feet” is as common in September as is the U.S. holiday of Labor Day.

But what of the crown of 12 “stars,” comprised of three planets and the nine stars of Leo? The response to this question is another question — why nine stars in Leo? There are many more than nine stars in Leo. Those nine are just brighter ones that are often depicted as comprising the general outline or shape of the constellation. But in fact there are scads of stars in Leo and surrounding the “head” of Virgo.

There are many more than 9 stars in the constellation Leo. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

And not all depictions of Leo show those nine as its outline. Some show the outline of Leo as consisting of 10 stars, for example. That would give Virgo a crown of 13 stars here!

Two depictions of Leo outlined with 10 or 11 stars rather than 9. The depiction on the left is from an astronomy book for children; the depiction on the right is from an old National Geographic atlas. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

And yes, multiple planets being at Virgo’s head while Jupiter is in Virgo’s center and the moon is at Virgo’s feet is somewhat unusual. But it is not that unusual. The period of Jupiter’s orbit is a little less than 12 years, and therefore Jupiter will be in Virgo (with the sun there, too, and the moon at the feet) once every 11 or 12 years.

So the sun in Virgo, the moon at Virgo’s “feet”, and Jupiter in the constellation are regular occurrences. This leaves the planets at the “head” (the number depending on the number of stars granted to Leo) as the determining factor in making a “momentous” celestial arrangement. Indeed – while various Internet sources speak of the specific celestial arrangement here as being “unique in human history” or “once in 7,000 years” – in fact, it is not unique to September 23, 2017.

This basic arrangement happened before — in September 1827, in September 1483, in September 1293, and in September 1056. These are all shown at the end of this post. I only searched back one thousand years, from 2017 to 1017 — there are undoubtedly other examples outside of that time period, and probably a couple examples that I missed within that time period.

No doubt someone could go diving into the history books to scrounge up some events from 1827, 1483, 1293, and 1056 that the September skies of those years supposedly foretold. That’s the way it is with astrology. A person reads his or her daily horoscope and finds that it says “obstacles will be placed in your path today.” Then, that person picks those instances of getting stuck in traffic, or in a long line at the grocery store, or wherever, and says “hey, that horoscope was right,” when, of course, we all encounter such things every day.

It is true that astrology — reading the heavens for signs — is something astronomers used to believe was valid (or, my guess is that many of them pretended to believe it was valid, because it paid the bills). But astrology has been found to have no more scientific basis than Harry Potter’s wand. It doesn’t work (something that does not seem to hinder its popularity). If astrology had anything going for it, astronomers would not need to go begging for money to fund astronomical research. We could just use our astronomical knowledge to divine which way the stock market was going, invest accordingly, become “astronomically” wealthy, and fund astronomical research from our surplus.

As it is, watching the heavens for signs of what is to come is a waste of time. And it is doubly a waste of time because “signs in the sky” appeal, for some reason, to all sorts of people out there — all of whom can use Stellarium to find this or that momentous “sign” signifying whatever they want to signify.

And that is why astronomers ignore the seemingly momentous celestial arrangement of September 23, 2017, and talk instead about black holes or whatnot.

The constellation Virgo on September 24, 1827, according to Stellarium. In this and the images below, the moon’s size is exaggerated for visibility. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

The constellation Virgo on September 6, 1483. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

The constellation Virgo on September 5, 1293. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

The constellation Virgo on September 14, 1056. Venus and the star Regulus in Leo are very close to one another. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

Bottom line: From the standpoint of astronomy, there’s nothing unique or unusual about the sun, moon and planets – or the constellation Virgo – on September 23, 2017, despite claims on the Internet of a unique and significant celestial event, supposedly “mirroring” the Bible’s Book of Revelation. In the past 1,000 years, this same event has happened at least four times already, in 1827, 1483, 1293, and 1056.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2rEiYlY

Just a few of the results of a Google image search for the words September 23, 2017 and Revelation 12.

Originally printed at The Catholic Astronomer. Re-printed here with permission.

One day last fall I was working in my office when my desk phone rang. It was a reader of The Catholic Astronomer, calling me with a question. He asked why the Vatican Observatory blog was full of discussion on black holes or whatnot, when there was something much more momentous to talk about.

It turns out that the momentous thing to which my caller was referring was an arrangement of celestial bodies that will occur this year (2017) on September 23. On that date, according to various Internet sources, the heavens themselves will be a tableau of Revelation 12 in the Bible:

A great sign appeared in the sky, a woman clothed with the sun, with the moon under her feet, and on her head a crown of 12 stars. She was with child and wailed aloud in pain as she labored to give birth … She gave birth to a son, a male child, destined to rule all the nations with an iron rod.

On September 23, 2017 the sun will be in the zodiac constellation Virgo — “a woman clothed with the sun”. The moon will be at the feet of Virgo — “with the moon under her feet”. The ‘nine’ stars of the zodiac constellation Leo, plus three planets (Mercury, Venus, and Mars), will be at the head of Virgo — “on her head a crown of 12 stars”. The planet Jupiter will be in the center of Virgo, and, as the weeks pass after September 23, Jupiter will exit Virgo to the east, past her feet, so to speak — “She was with child and wailed aloud in pain as she labored to give birth”. Jupiter is the largest of the planets, the “king” of the planets, so to speak — “She gave birth to a son, a male child, destined to rule all the nations with an iron rod”.

Must this not be a sign of something momentous, like the Internet sources say?

Now, I know that the readers of this blog are diverse. People with interest in astronomy are a diverse group! And you all will have diverse reactions to this question. Some of you are probably saying right now, “what a bunch of nonsense!” Others of you may be thinking that my caller had a good point, and you would like to learn more. Fortunately, I am a community college professor! Community college people are the ‘A-Team’ of the academic world (as in B.A., Hannibal, and the crew from the TV show and the movie — who are tougher than anyone else and able to save the day using duct tape, PVC pipe, and a butane lighter). We thrive on diversity! No question phases us!

We know that there are a lot of smart people out there who have not had much formal education in a topic like astronomy, and that interest in questions like this reflects a basic interest in astronomy combined with interest in religion and scripture.

My caller was familiar with the Stellarium sky software. He could call up the skies of September 23, 2017 on Stellarium and see for himself that this celestial arrangement was a real thing. His was a reasonable question. Scientists need to be able to answer questions people have like this one, without treating the questions as nonsense, because the questions will not go away just because they are dismissed. And thus before long I was having a nice conversation with the caller, and I ended up telling him I would look into his question, and write a post on this topic.

But I said it was unlikely to be the post he was looking for. He was OK with that.

And so, Mr. Caller:

The constellation Virgo on September 23, 2017, according to the Stellarium sky software. The moon’s size is exaggerated for visibility. See the annotated image below. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

Green arrows show the “9” stars of Leo. Blue arrows show the planets Mercury, Venus, and Mars. Red arrow is Jupiter. Violet arrow is the moon (shown enlarged). The sun is at Virgo’s shoulder. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

First, in one year, thanks to the Earth’s annual orbit, the sun travels the entirety of the ecliptic, and thus passes through every one of the 12 constellations of the zodiac. The sun is in Virgo every September.

Second, in one month the moon goes through its cycle of phases, and travels the entirety of the ecliptic, and thus passes through every constellation of the zodiac—all owed to the period of the moon’s orbit being one month. Therefore there is always a day or two every year when the sun is in Virgo and the moon is just to the east of Virgo (just past the “feet”).

So, the celestial “woman clothed with the sun with the moon at her feet” is as common in September as is the U.S. holiday of Labor Day.

But what of the crown of 12 “stars,” comprised of three planets and the nine stars of Leo? The response to this question is another question — why nine stars in Leo? There are many more than nine stars in Leo. Those nine are just brighter ones that are often depicted as comprising the general outline or shape of the constellation. But in fact there are scads of stars in Leo and surrounding the “head” of Virgo.

There are many more than 9 stars in the constellation Leo. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

And not all depictions of Leo show those nine as its outline. Some show the outline of Leo as consisting of 10 stars, for example. That would give Virgo a crown of 13 stars here!

Two depictions of Leo outlined with 10 or 11 stars rather than 9. The depiction on the left is from an astronomy book for children; the depiction on the right is from an old National Geographic atlas. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

And yes, multiple planets being at Virgo’s head while Jupiter is in Virgo’s center and the moon is at Virgo’s feet is somewhat unusual. But it is not that unusual. The period of Jupiter’s orbit is a little less than 12 years, and therefore Jupiter will be in Virgo (with the sun there, too, and the moon at the feet) once every 11 or 12 years.

So the sun in Virgo, the moon at Virgo’s “feet”, and Jupiter in the constellation are regular occurrences. This leaves the planets at the “head” (the number depending on the number of stars granted to Leo) as the determining factor in making a “momentous” celestial arrangement. Indeed – while various Internet sources speak of the specific celestial arrangement here as being “unique in human history” or “once in 7,000 years” – in fact, it is not unique to September 23, 2017.

This basic arrangement happened before — in September 1827, in September 1483, in September 1293, and in September 1056. These are all shown at the end of this post. I only searched back one thousand years, from 2017 to 1017 — there are undoubtedly other examples outside of that time period, and probably a couple examples that I missed within that time period.

No doubt someone could go diving into the history books to scrounge up some events from 1827, 1483, 1293, and 1056 that the September skies of those years supposedly foretold. That’s the way it is with astrology. A person reads his or her daily horoscope and finds that it says “obstacles will be placed in your path today.” Then, that person picks those instances of getting stuck in traffic, or in a long line at the grocery store, or wherever, and says “hey, that horoscope was right,” when, of course, we all encounter such things every day.

It is true that astrology — reading the heavens for signs — is something astronomers used to believe was valid (or, my guess is that many of them pretended to believe it was valid, because it paid the bills). But astrology has been found to have no more scientific basis than Harry Potter’s wand. It doesn’t work (something that does not seem to hinder its popularity). If astrology had anything going for it, astronomers would not need to go begging for money to fund astronomical research. We could just use our astronomical knowledge to divine which way the stock market was going, invest accordingly, become “astronomically” wealthy, and fund astronomical research from our surplus.

As it is, watching the heavens for signs of what is to come is a waste of time. And it is doubly a waste of time because “signs in the sky” appeal, for some reason, to all sorts of people out there — all of whom can use Stellarium to find this or that momentous “sign” signifying whatever they want to signify.

And that is why astronomers ignore the seemingly momentous celestial arrangement of September 23, 2017, and talk instead about black holes or whatnot.

The constellation Virgo on September 24, 1827, according to Stellarium. In this and the images below, the moon’s size is exaggerated for visibility. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

The constellation Virgo on September 6, 1483. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

The constellation Virgo on September 5, 1293. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

The constellation Virgo on September 14, 1056. Venus and the star Regulus in Leo are very close to one another. Image via Christopher M. Graney.

Bottom line: From the standpoint of astronomy, there’s nothing unique or unusual about the sun, moon and planets – or the constellation Virgo – on September 23, 2017, despite claims on the Internet of a unique and significant celestial event, supposedly “mirroring” the Bible’s Book of Revelation. In the past 1,000 years, this same event has happened at least four times already, in 1827, 1483, 1293, and 1056.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2rEiYlY

World No Tobacco Day: Why tobacco remains a global threat

This World No Tobacco Day 2017, we’re taking a look at how tobacco poses one of the most urgent challenges of our time, and what can be done to curb the epidemic.

Smoking is still the biggest preventable cause of cancer worldwide. Unlike any other product, tobacco kills up to two thirds of long-term users and harms many others. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has called the global tobacco epidemic ‘one of the biggest public health threats the world has ever faced’.

The good news is that in the UK and elsewhere, smoking rates have been steadily decreasing since the 1980s – thanks to a range of laws that have helped people to stop smoking and put off many young people from ever taking up the lethal habit.

But not all countries have made such progress. The damage that tobacco causes, both to health and wealth, is becoming increasingly obvious in some of the world’s poorest countries.

And with almost 8 in 10 of the world’s one billion smokers living in these low- and middle-income countries, it’s clear that support for tobacco control must be turned towards them, to help stop the rise in deaths.

That’s why we support the WHO’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), the world’s first international public health treaty. It lays out the steps governments can take to tackle smoking such as raising taxes on tobacco, banning tobacco advertising, introducing smoke-free areas and setting rules on plain packaging.

Back in 2014 we announced a £5 million investment in global tobacco control to help countries put these important recommendations into practice.

And we’re already starting to see some progress.

The global tobacco challenge

Every year around 6 million deaths around the world are linked to tobacco – more than AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria combined. And even if smoking rates only stay the same, the WHO warns that tobacco could kill up to 1 billion people this century.

This enormous loss of life has a huge impact on a personal and economic scale – and the tobacco industry must take a large share of the blame.

The tobacco industry causes smoking rates to rise by selling tobacco products as cheaply as possible, preventing governments from introducing laws to limit tobacco use, and, perhaps most shockingly, aggressively marketing their products to many groups – including young people.

Some countries, like the UK, are more able to combat these tactics, but many low and middle income countries are now struggling to do the same. This often comes down to how much money each country can afford to spend on the problem, and the strength of the tobacco industry there.

Without urgent action, the challenge of tobacco in these countries will increase even more as they’ve become the targets of the tobacco industry. By 2030, it’s estimated that the majority of deaths from tobacco will be in low- and middle-income countries.

And tobacco does more than just kill, it’s also a serious economic drain on people and countries –smoking accounts for around £320 billion in healthcare costs globally.

To help tackle this, Alison Cox, our director of prevention, says it’s now more important than ever to share what the UK has learnt with those countries.

“Tobacco devastates lives and puts additional strain on already under-resourced health services,” she says. “Sharing knowledge of how to reduce the devastating loss caused by smoking and supporting other countries in the fight against tobacco is vital.”

Taxing tobacco, saving lives

“The single most effective tool to reduce tobacco use is raising the excise tax on tobacco products,” says Professor Corne Van Walbeek, an expert in economics from the University of Cape Town.

Studies have shown that taxing a pack of 20 cigarettes by $1 international dollar (a hypothetical currency used as a way to compare costs from one country to another) could lead to nearly 1 in 10 smokers around the world quitting.

In low and middle income countries, this same tax increase could lead to 58 million fewer daily adults smokers and 13 million fewer deaths each year.

“Increasing the tax increases the price of cigarettes, and discourages people from starting to smoke and encourages smokers to quit,” says Walbeek. “It also reduces the use of tobacco among remaining smokers, and encourages quitters to stay quit.

“Tax-induced increases in the excise tax are particularly effective in reducing smoking among the poor and the young, two especially vulnerable groups.”

Taxing tobacco is also a useful tool because the money it raises can be used improve healthcare. The same $1 tax could raise more than £100 billion worldwide – money that could be used to pay for stop smoking services or other healthcare services.

In the Philippines, money raised through taxing tobacco has been used to help improve healthcare for 14 million families by expanding access to healthcare and upgrading medical facilities.

What are we doing to fight tobacco around the world?

In 1954, we helped fund the first study to link tobacco with cancer. Since then, we’ve continued to fund similar research and to campaign for laws that will help people to stop smoking and prevent young people from taking up the deadly addiction.

And we want to help other countries to do the same.

This is why we set up our International Tobacco Control Programme, which funds research and supports low- and middle-income countries introduce effective tobacco control laws.

And today we’re delighted to announce that we’re launching new partnerships with two of the world leaders in tobacco control – the Framework Convention Alliance and the University of Cape Town.

We’re providing around £1m to support these organisations fight the global battle against tobacco.

The Framework Convention Alliance will link up national and international organisations to support them using the FCTC, the most important tool for helping countries to combat big tobacco and save lives.

And researchers at the University of Cape Town will lead the development of the WHO tobacco taxation knowledge hub.

“The tobacco industry is an exploitative industry, feeding off its customers. That’s why we want to help people avoid smoking by all possible means,” says Walbeek.

The hub will support the 180 countries that have signed up to the FCTC to implement effective tax policies that will help people to quit smoking and prevent young people from ever taking up deadly addiction.

We will continue to make sure that tobacco remains on the international health agenda.

So that the tobacco industry is left with no other countries to pick on.

 



from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://ift.tt/2qzDFQ1

This World No Tobacco Day 2017, we’re taking a look at how tobacco poses one of the most urgent challenges of our time, and what can be done to curb the epidemic.

Smoking is still the biggest preventable cause of cancer worldwide. Unlike any other product, tobacco kills up to two thirds of long-term users and harms many others. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has called the global tobacco epidemic ‘one of the biggest public health threats the world has ever faced’.

The good news is that in the UK and elsewhere, smoking rates have been steadily decreasing since the 1980s – thanks to a range of laws that have helped people to stop smoking and put off many young people from ever taking up the lethal habit.

But not all countries have made such progress. The damage that tobacco causes, both to health and wealth, is becoming increasingly obvious in some of the world’s poorest countries.

And with almost 8 in 10 of the world’s one billion smokers living in these low- and middle-income countries, it’s clear that support for tobacco control must be turned towards them, to help stop the rise in deaths.

That’s why we support the WHO’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC), the world’s first international public health treaty. It lays out the steps governments can take to tackle smoking such as raising taxes on tobacco, banning tobacco advertising, introducing smoke-free areas and setting rules on plain packaging.

Back in 2014 we announced a £5 million investment in global tobacco control to help countries put these important recommendations into practice.

And we’re already starting to see some progress.

The global tobacco challenge

Every year around 6 million deaths around the world are linked to tobacco – more than AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria combined. And even if smoking rates only stay the same, the WHO warns that tobacco could kill up to 1 billion people this century.

This enormous loss of life has a huge impact on a personal and economic scale – and the tobacco industry must take a large share of the blame.

The tobacco industry causes smoking rates to rise by selling tobacco products as cheaply as possible, preventing governments from introducing laws to limit tobacco use, and, perhaps most shockingly, aggressively marketing their products to many groups – including young people.

Some countries, like the UK, are more able to combat these tactics, but many low and middle income countries are now struggling to do the same. This often comes down to how much money each country can afford to spend on the problem, and the strength of the tobacco industry there.

Without urgent action, the challenge of tobacco in these countries will increase even more as they’ve become the targets of the tobacco industry. By 2030, it’s estimated that the majority of deaths from tobacco will be in low- and middle-income countries.

And tobacco does more than just kill, it’s also a serious economic drain on people and countries –smoking accounts for around £320 billion in healthcare costs globally.

To help tackle this, Alison Cox, our director of prevention, says it’s now more important than ever to share what the UK has learnt with those countries.

“Tobacco devastates lives and puts additional strain on already under-resourced health services,” she says. “Sharing knowledge of how to reduce the devastating loss caused by smoking and supporting other countries in the fight against tobacco is vital.”

Taxing tobacco, saving lives

“The single most effective tool to reduce tobacco use is raising the excise tax on tobacco products,” says Professor Corne Van Walbeek, an expert in economics from the University of Cape Town.

Studies have shown that taxing a pack of 20 cigarettes by $1 international dollar (a hypothetical currency used as a way to compare costs from one country to another) could lead to nearly 1 in 10 smokers around the world quitting.

In low and middle income countries, this same tax increase could lead to 58 million fewer daily adults smokers and 13 million fewer deaths each year.

“Increasing the tax increases the price of cigarettes, and discourages people from starting to smoke and encourages smokers to quit,” says Walbeek. “It also reduces the use of tobacco among remaining smokers, and encourages quitters to stay quit.

“Tax-induced increases in the excise tax are particularly effective in reducing smoking among the poor and the young, two especially vulnerable groups.”

Taxing tobacco is also a useful tool because the money it raises can be used improve healthcare. The same $1 tax could raise more than £100 billion worldwide – money that could be used to pay for stop smoking services or other healthcare services.

In the Philippines, money raised through taxing tobacco has been used to help improve healthcare for 14 million families by expanding access to healthcare and upgrading medical facilities.

What are we doing to fight tobacco around the world?

In 1954, we helped fund the first study to link tobacco with cancer. Since then, we’ve continued to fund similar research and to campaign for laws that will help people to stop smoking and prevent young people from taking up the deadly addiction.

And we want to help other countries to do the same.

This is why we set up our International Tobacco Control Programme, which funds research and supports low- and middle-income countries introduce effective tobacco control laws.

And today we’re delighted to announce that we’re launching new partnerships with two of the world leaders in tobacco control – the Framework Convention Alliance and the University of Cape Town.

We’re providing around £1m to support these organisations fight the global battle against tobacco.

The Framework Convention Alliance will link up national and international organisations to support them using the FCTC, the most important tool for helping countries to combat big tobacco and save lives.

And researchers at the University of Cape Town will lead the development of the WHO tobacco taxation knowledge hub.

“The tobacco industry is an exploitative industry, feeding off its customers. That’s why we want to help people avoid smoking by all possible means,” says Walbeek.

The hub will support the 180 countries that have signed up to the FCTC to implement effective tax policies that will help people to quit smoking and prevent young people from ever taking up deadly addiction.

We will continue to make sure that tobacco remains on the international health agenda.

So that the tobacco industry is left with no other countries to pick on.

 



from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://ift.tt/2qzDFQ1

Where’s the moon? 1st quarter

Our friend Patrick Casaert of the Facebook page La Lune The Moon caught the moon on May 1, 2017, when it was nearly 1st quarter.

A first quarter moon shows half of its lighted hemisphere – half of its day side – to Earth.

The moon reaches its first quarter phase on June 1, 2017 at 12:42 UTC; translate to your time zone.

We call this moon a quarter and not a half because it is one quarter of the way around in its orbit of Earth, as measured from one new moon to the next. Also, although the moon appears half-lit to us, the illuminated portion of a first quarter moon truly is just a quarter. On the night of first quarter moon, we see half the moon’s day side, or a true quarter of the moon. Another lighted quarter of the moon shines just as brightly in the direction opposite Earth!

Here’s what a first quarter moon looks like. The terminator line – or line between light and dark on the moon – appears straight. Aqilla Othman in Port Dickson, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia caught this photo on May 3, 2017. Notice that he caught Lunar X and Lunar V.

Here’s a closer look at Lunar X and Lunar V. Photo taken May 3, 2017 by Izaty Liyana in Port Dickson, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia.

What is Lunar X?

And what about the term half moon? That’s a beloved term, but not an official one.

A first quarter moon rises at noon and is highest in the sky at sunset. It sets around midnight. First quarter moon comes a week after new moon. Now, as seen from above, the moon in its orbit around Earth is at right angles to a line between the Earth and sun. On June 1, 2017, as evening falls in the western hemisphere, the moon will be slightly past the first quarter phase, but it’ll be near some bright planets and stars. The charts below explain more:

On the night of June 1, 2017, the moon is located to the east of the bright star Regulus in the constellation Leo the Lion.

Extend the line of the ecliptic – or sun’s path – further east on June 1, 2017, and you’ll come to Jupiter, now the brightest starlike object in the evening sky. It shines close to Spica, the constellation Virgo’s brightest star. Spica and Regulus serve as “fixed” reference points to the whereabouts of the ecliptic on the sky’s dome; that is, they’re there on June evenings when the planets and moon move away.

Extend the line of the ecliptic – or sun’s path – even further east on June 1, 2017, and you’ll come to the stars Zubenelgenubi and Antares. Keep going – nearly all the way to the eastern horizon – and you’ll find the bright planet Saturn.

As the moon orbits Earth, it changes phase in an orderly way. Follow these links to understand the various phases of the moon.

Four keys to understanding moon phases

Where’s the moon? Waxing crescent
Where’s the moon? First quarter
Where’s the moon? Waxing gibbous
What’s special about a full moon?
Where’s the moon? Waning gibbous
Where’s the moon? Last quarter
Where’s the moon? Waning crescent
Where’s the moon? New phase



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1GsHF3c

Our friend Patrick Casaert of the Facebook page La Lune The Moon caught the moon on May 1, 2017, when it was nearly 1st quarter.

A first quarter moon shows half of its lighted hemisphere – half of its day side – to Earth.

The moon reaches its first quarter phase on June 1, 2017 at 12:42 UTC; translate to your time zone.

We call this moon a quarter and not a half because it is one quarter of the way around in its orbit of Earth, as measured from one new moon to the next. Also, although the moon appears half-lit to us, the illuminated portion of a first quarter moon truly is just a quarter. On the night of first quarter moon, we see half the moon’s day side, or a true quarter of the moon. Another lighted quarter of the moon shines just as brightly in the direction opposite Earth!

Here’s what a first quarter moon looks like. The terminator line – or line between light and dark on the moon – appears straight. Aqilla Othman in Port Dickson, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia caught this photo on May 3, 2017. Notice that he caught Lunar X and Lunar V.

Here’s a closer look at Lunar X and Lunar V. Photo taken May 3, 2017 by Izaty Liyana in Port Dickson, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia.

What is Lunar X?

And what about the term half moon? That’s a beloved term, but not an official one.

A first quarter moon rises at noon and is highest in the sky at sunset. It sets around midnight. First quarter moon comes a week after new moon. Now, as seen from above, the moon in its orbit around Earth is at right angles to a line between the Earth and sun. On June 1, 2017, as evening falls in the western hemisphere, the moon will be slightly past the first quarter phase, but it’ll be near some bright planets and stars. The charts below explain more:

On the night of June 1, 2017, the moon is located to the east of the bright star Regulus in the constellation Leo the Lion.

Extend the line of the ecliptic – or sun’s path – further east on June 1, 2017, and you’ll come to Jupiter, now the brightest starlike object in the evening sky. It shines close to Spica, the constellation Virgo’s brightest star. Spica and Regulus serve as “fixed” reference points to the whereabouts of the ecliptic on the sky’s dome; that is, they’re there on June evenings when the planets and moon move away.

Extend the line of the ecliptic – or sun’s path – even further east on June 1, 2017, and you’ll come to the stars Zubenelgenubi and Antares. Keep going – nearly all the way to the eastern horizon – and you’ll find the bright planet Saturn.

As the moon orbits Earth, it changes phase in an orderly way. Follow these links to understand the various phases of the moon.

Four keys to understanding moon phases

Where’s the moon? Waxing crescent
Where’s the moon? First quarter
Where’s the moon? Waxing gibbous
What’s special about a full moon?
Where’s the moon? Waning gibbous
Where’s the moon? Last quarter
Where’s the moon? Waning crescent
Where’s the moon? New phase



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/1GsHF3c

June guide to the bright planets

Watch for the moon with Jupiter on June 3, then with Spica on June 4. In a dark sky, you might see the constellation Corvus the Crow, which points toward Spica. Read more.

Three of the five bright planets are easy to see in June, 2017: Jupiter, Saturn and Venus. Jupiter appears first thing at dusk and stays out until well after midnight. Saturn rises at dusk or nightfall and stays out for rest of the night. Venus rises before the sun and reaches its greatest elongation – its farthest point from the sun on our sky’s dome – on June 3, 2017. Mars and Mercury will be hard to spot this month. Mars is buried deep in the glare of evening twilight. Mercury swings behind the sun in June, thereby transitioning from the morning to evening sky. Follow the links below to learn more about the planets in June, 2017.

Bright Jupiter high up at nightfall

Saturn opposite the sun, visible all night

Venus, brilliant in east at morning dawn

Mars fading into western evening twilight

Mercury lost in glare of sun

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Watch for the moon to pair up with Jupiter on June 3 and then couple up with Spica on June 4. In a dark sky, you might even see the constellation Corvus the Crow, which points at Spica. Read more.

Bright Jupiter high up at nightfall. Jupiter reached opposition on April 7. That is, it was opposite the sun as seen from Earth then and so was appearing in our sky all night. The giant planet came closest to Earth for 2017 one day later, on April 8. So Jupiter shone at its brightest and best in April, never fear. It’ll still be blazing away in June! Jupiter beams as the third-brightest celestial body in the nighttime sky, after the moon and Venus. In June, Jupiter shines from dusk until well after midnight; meanwhile, Venus appears only before dawn.

Click here for an almanac telling you Jupiter’s setting time and Venus’ rising time in your sky.

Watch for a bright waxing gibbous moon to join up with Jupiter for several days, centered on or near June 3. See the above sky chart. Wonderful sight!

From the Northern Hemisphere, Jupiter appears in the southern sky at first thing at dusk; and from the Southern hemisphere, Jupiter appears high overhead as darkness falls. From all of Earth, Jupiter crosses the sky in a westerly direction throughout the night, as Earth spins under the sky. Jupiter sets in the west in June, in the wee hours after midnight.

Jupiter shines in front of the constellation Virgo, near Virgo’s sole 1st-magnitude star, called Spica.

Fernando Roquel Torres in Caguas, Puerto Rico captured Jupiter, the Great Red Spot (GRS) and all 4 of its largest moons – the Galilean satellites – on the date of Jupiter’s 2017 opposition (April 7).

If you have binoculars or a telescope, it’s fairly easy to see Jupiter’s four major moons, which look like pinpricks of light all on or near the same plane. They are often called the Galilean moons to honor Galileo, who discovered these great Jovian moons in 1610. In their order from Jupiter, these moons are Io, Europa, Ganymede and Callisto.

These moons orbit Jupiter around the Jovian equator. In cycles of six years, we view Jupiter’s equator edge-on. So, in 2015, we were able to view a number of mutual events involving Jupiter’s moons, through high-powered telescopes. Starting in late 2016, Jupiter’s axis began tilting enough toward the sun and Earth so that the farthest of these four moons, Callisto, has not been passing in front of Jupiter or behind Jupiter, as seen from our vantage point. This will continue for a period of about three years, during which time Callisto is perpetually visible to those with telescopes, alternately swinging above and below Jupiter as seen from Earth.

Click here for a Jupiter’s moons almanac, courtesy of skyandtelescope.com.

Watch for the Srawberry Moon to sweep past the star Antares and the planet Saturn on June 8, 9 and 10. Read more.

Saturn opposite the sun, visible all night. June, 2017 is really Saturn’s month because this planet reaches its yearly opposition on June 15. At opposition, Earth passes more or less between the sun and sun. Hence Saturn comes closest to Earth for the year, shines at its brightest in our sky and stays out all night.

In other words, this is a great month for watching Saturn!

Saturn rises about an hour after sunset in early June 2017. It rises in the southeast as seen from Earth’s Northern Hemisphere and more due east from the Southern Hemisphere. By the month’s end, Saturn will be above the horizon as soon as darkness falls.

But your best view of Saturn, from either the Northern or Southern Hemisphere, is around the midnight hour. That’s when Saturn climbs highest up for the night. Click here to find out Saturn’s transit time, when Saturn soars highest up for the night.

Be sure to let the year’s smallest full moon guide you to Saturn (and the nearby star Antares) on June 9.

Saturn, the farthest world that you can easily view with the eye alone, appears golden in color. It shines with a steady light.

Binoculars don’t reveal Saturn’s gorgeous rings, by the way, although binoculars will enhance Saturn’s color. To see the rings, you need a small telescope. A telescope will also reveal one or more of Saturn’s many moons, most notably Titan.

Saturn’s rings are inclined at nearly 27o from edge-on, exhibiting their northern face. In October 2017, the rings will open most widely for this year, displaying a maximum inclination of 27o.

As with so much in space (and on Earth), the appearance of Saturn’s rings from Earth is cyclical. In the year 2025, the rings will appear edge-on as seen from Earth. After that, we’ll begin to see the south side of Saturn’s rings, to increase to a maximum inclination of 27o by May 2032.

Click here for recommended almanacs; they can help you know when the planets rise, transit and set in your sky.

Jenney Disimon in Sabah, Borneo captured Venus before dawn on April 8, 2017.

The waning crescent moon swings by the planet Venus on the mornings of June 19, 20 and 21. Read more.

Venus, brilliant in east at morning dawn Venus is always brilliant and beautiful, the brightest celestial body to light up our sky besides the sun and moon. If you’re an early bird, you can count on Venus to be your morning companion until nearly the end of 2017.

Venus reaches a milestone as the morning “star” when it extends to its greatest elongation from the sun on “>June 3, 2017. At this juncture, Venus is farthest from the sun on our sky’s dome. A telescope reveals Venus as half-illuminated in sunshine, like a first quarter moon. For the rest of the year, Venus will wax toward full phase.

Click here to know Venus’s present phase, remembering to select Venus as your object of interest.

Enjoy the picturesque coupling of the waning crescent moon and Venus in the eastern sky before sunrise for several mornings, centered on or near June 20.

From mid-northern latitudes (U.S. and Europe), Venus rises about two hours before the sun. By the month’s end, it’ll increase to two and one-half hours before sunrise

At temperate latitudes (Australia and South Africa) in the Southern Hemisphere, Venus rises nearly 4 hours before sunup all month long.

Click here for an almanac giving rising times of Venus in your sky.

The chart below helps to illustrate why we sometimes see Venus in the evening, and sometimes before dawn.

Earth's and Venus' orbits

The Earth and Venus orbit the sun counterclockwise as seen from earthly north. When Venus is to the east (left) of the Earth-sun line, we see Venus as an evening “star” in the west after sunset. After Venus reaches its inferior conjunction, Venus then moves to the west (right) of the Earth-sun line, appearing as a morning “star” in the east before sunrise.

Mars, Mercury, Earth’s moon and the dwarf planet Ceres. Mars is smaller than Earth, but bigger than our moon. Image via NASA/JPL-Caltech/UCLA.

Mars fading into western evening twilight. Mars has had a good long run in our evening sky, but, in late May and June, the red planet is a fading ember of its former self. Mars is edging closer to the sunset day by day. It’ll disappear, if it hasn’t already, in the glare of evening dusk this month.

Because Earth is traveling faster in its orbit than Mars is, Earth’s distance from Mars is increasing day by day. So there are two reasons for Mars’ disappearing act this month. Its increasing distance from Earth means Mars’ brightness is decreasing. Plus, Mars is setting sooner after the sun with each passing day.

After June, Mars won’t be in view from Earth for several months. It’ll be in the sun’s glare, traveling more or less behind the sun from Earth.

Mars won’t officially transition from evening to morning sky until July 27, 2017, however. That’s the date on which Mars is most nearly behind the sun as seen from Earth, at what astronomers call superior conjunction. Mars emerge in the east before dawn in late September or October 2017. The conjunction of Mars and Venus on October 5, 2017, will likely present the first view of Mars in the morning sky for many skywatchers.

Looking for a sky almanac? EarthSky recommends…

Wow! Wonderful shot of Mercury – over the Chilean Andes – January 2017, from Yuri Beletsky Nightscapes.

Live in the Southern Hemisphere or northern tropics? You have a good chance of catching Mercury beneath Venus in the morning sky during the first week of June 2017. Click here for an almanac giving you the rising time of the sun, Mercury and Venus in your sky.

Mercury lost in glare of sun. When we say this, we’re really talking about the Northern Hemisphere. For the Southern Hemisphere, Mercury will still be in view in the morning sky during the first week of June. If you live in the Southern Hemisphere, look for Mercury low in the east, beneath Venus, as the predawn darkness is giving way to morning dawn.

Mercury is tricky. If you look too soon before sunrise, Mercury will still be below the horizon; if you look too late, it’ll be obscured by the morning twilight. Watch for Mercury low in the sky, and near the sunrise point on the horizon, being mindful of Mercury’s rising time.

Throughout June, Mercury sinks closer to the sun day by day. It passes behind the sun on June 21, thereby transitioning over to the evening sky. After June 21, Mercury will be traveling east of the sun in our sky. It’ll be officially in the west after sunset. It’ll reach its greatest eastern elongation on July 30, 2017.

We expect Mercury to first become visible in the western evening twilight toward the end of the first week of July.

What do we mean by bright planet? By bright planet, we mean any solar system planet that is easily visible without an optical aid and that has been watched by our ancestors since time immemorial. In their outward order from the sun, the five bright planets are Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn. These planets actually do appear bright in our sky. They are typically as bright as – or brighter than – the brightest stars. Plus, these relatively nearby worlds tend to shine with a steadier light than the distant, twinkling stars. You can spot them, and come to know them as faithful friends, if you try.

From late January, and through mid-February, 5 bright planets were visible at once in the predawn sky. This image is from February 8, 2016. It's by Eliot Herman in Tucson, Arizona. View on Flickr.

This image is from February 8, 2016. It shows all 5 bright planets at once. Photo by our friend Eliot Herman in Tucson, Arizona.

Skywatcher, by Predrag Agatonovic.

Skywatcher, by Predrag Agatonovic.

Bottom line: In June 2017, two of the five bright planets appear in the evening sky: Jupiter and Saturn. Venus is found exclusively in the morning sky. Mars and Mercury hide in the sun’s glare.

Don’t miss anything. Subscribe to EarthSky News by email

Enjoy knowing where to look in the night sky? Please donate to help EarthSky keep going.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/IJfHCr

Watch for the moon with Jupiter on June 3, then with Spica on June 4. In a dark sky, you might see the constellation Corvus the Crow, which points toward Spica. Read more.

Three of the five bright planets are easy to see in June, 2017: Jupiter, Saturn and Venus. Jupiter appears first thing at dusk and stays out until well after midnight. Saturn rises at dusk or nightfall and stays out for rest of the night. Venus rises before the sun and reaches its greatest elongation – its farthest point from the sun on our sky’s dome – on June 3, 2017. Mars and Mercury will be hard to spot this month. Mars is buried deep in the glare of evening twilight. Mercury swings behind the sun in June, thereby transitioning from the morning to evening sky. Follow the links below to learn more about the planets in June, 2017.

Bright Jupiter high up at nightfall

Saturn opposite the sun, visible all night

Venus, brilliant in east at morning dawn

Mars fading into western evening twilight

Mercury lost in glare of sun

Like what EarthSky offers? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!

Astronomy events, star parties, festivals, workshops

Visit a new EarthSky feature – Best Places to Stargaze – and add your fav.

Watch for the moon to pair up with Jupiter on June 3 and then couple up with Spica on June 4. In a dark sky, you might even see the constellation Corvus the Crow, which points at Spica. Read more.

Bright Jupiter high up at nightfall. Jupiter reached opposition on April 7. That is, it was opposite the sun as seen from Earth then and so was appearing in our sky all night. The giant planet came closest to Earth for 2017 one day later, on April 8. So Jupiter shone at its brightest and best in April, never fear. It’ll still be blazing away in June! Jupiter beams as the third-brightest celestial body in the nighttime sky, after the moon and Venus. In June, Jupiter shines from dusk until well after midnight; meanwhile, Venus appears only before dawn.

Click here for an almanac telling you Jupiter’s setting time and Venus’ rising time in your sky.

Watch for a bright waxing gibbous moon to join up with Jupiter for several days, centered on or near June 3. See the above sky chart. Wonderful sight!

From the Northern Hemisphere, Jupiter appears in the southern sky at first thing at dusk; and from the Southern hemisphere, Jupiter appears high overhead as darkness falls. From all of Earth, Jupiter crosses the sky in a westerly direction throughout the night, as Earth spins under the sky. Jupiter sets in the west in June, in the wee hours after midnight.

Jupiter shines in front of the constellation Virgo, near Virgo’s sole 1st-magnitude star, called Spica.

Fernando Roquel Torres in Caguas, Puerto Rico captured Jupiter, the Great Red Spot (GRS) and all 4 of its largest moons – the Galilean satellites – on the date of Jupiter’s 2017 opposition (April 7).

If you have binoculars or a telescope, it’s fairly easy to see Jupiter’s four major moons, which look like pinpricks of light all on or near the same plane. They are often called the Galilean moons to honor Galileo, who discovered these great Jovian moons in 1610. In their order from Jupiter, these moons are Io, Europa, Ganymede and Callisto.

These moons orbit Jupiter around the Jovian equator. In cycles of six years, we view Jupiter’s equator edge-on. So, in 2015, we were able to view a number of mutual events involving Jupiter’s moons, through high-powered telescopes. Starting in late 2016, Jupiter’s axis began tilting enough toward the sun and Earth so that the farthest of these four moons, Callisto, has not been passing in front of Jupiter or behind Jupiter, as seen from our vantage point. This will continue for a period of about three years, during which time Callisto is perpetually visible to those with telescopes, alternately swinging above and below Jupiter as seen from Earth.

Click here for a Jupiter’s moons almanac, courtesy of skyandtelescope.com.

Watch for the Srawberry Moon to sweep past the star Antares and the planet Saturn on June 8, 9 and 10. Read more.

Saturn opposite the sun, visible all night. June, 2017 is really Saturn’s month because this planet reaches its yearly opposition on June 15. At opposition, Earth passes more or less between the sun and sun. Hence Saturn comes closest to Earth for the year, shines at its brightest in our sky and stays out all night.

In other words, this is a great month for watching Saturn!

Saturn rises about an hour after sunset in early June 2017. It rises in the southeast as seen from Earth’s Northern Hemisphere and more due east from the Southern Hemisphere. By the month’s end, Saturn will be above the horizon as soon as darkness falls.

But your best view of Saturn, from either the Northern or Southern Hemisphere, is around the midnight hour. That’s when Saturn climbs highest up for the night. Click here to find out Saturn’s transit time, when Saturn soars highest up for the night.

Be sure to let the year’s smallest full moon guide you to Saturn (and the nearby star Antares) on June 9.

Saturn, the farthest world that you can easily view with the eye alone, appears golden in color. It shines with a steady light.

Binoculars don’t reveal Saturn’s gorgeous rings, by the way, although binoculars will enhance Saturn’s color. To see the rings, you need a small telescope. A telescope will also reveal one or more of Saturn’s many moons, most notably Titan.

Saturn’s rings are inclined at nearly 27o from edge-on, exhibiting their northern face. In October 2017, the rings will open most widely for this year, displaying a maximum inclination of 27o.

As with so much in space (and on Earth), the appearance of Saturn’s rings from Earth is cyclical. In the year 2025, the rings will appear edge-on as seen from Earth. After that, we’ll begin to see the south side of Saturn’s rings, to increase to a maximum inclination of 27o by May 2032.

Click here for recommended almanacs; they can help you know when the planets rise, transit and set in your sky.

Jenney Disimon in Sabah, Borneo captured Venus before dawn on April 8, 2017.

The waning crescent moon swings by the planet Venus on the mornings of June 19, 20 and 21. Read more.

Venus, brilliant in east at morning dawn Venus is always brilliant and beautiful, the brightest celestial body to light up our sky besides the sun and moon. If you’re an early bird, you can count on Venus to be your morning companion until nearly the end of 2017.

Venus reaches a milestone as the morning “star” when it extends to its greatest elongation from the sun on “>June 3, 2017. At this juncture, Venus is farthest from the sun on our sky’s dome. A telescope reveals Venus as half-illuminated in sunshine, like a first quarter moon. For the rest of the year, Venus will wax toward full phase.

Click here to know Venus’s present phase, remembering to select Venus as your object of interest.

Enjoy the picturesque coupling of the waning crescent moon and Venus in the eastern sky before sunrise for several mornings, centered on or near June 20.

From mid-northern latitudes (U.S. and Europe), Venus rises about two hours before the sun. By the month’s end, it’ll increase to two and one-half hours before sunrise

At temperate latitudes (Australia and South Africa) in the Southern Hemisphere, Venus rises nearly 4 hours before sunup all month long.

Click here for an almanac giving rising times of Venus in your sky.

The chart below helps to illustrate why we sometimes see Venus in the evening, and sometimes before dawn.

Earth's and Venus' orbits

The Earth and Venus orbit the sun counterclockwise as seen from earthly north. When Venus is to the east (left) of the Earth-sun line, we see Venus as an evening “star” in the west after sunset. After Venus reaches its inferior conjunction, Venus then moves to the west (right) of the Earth-sun line, appearing as a morning “star” in the east before sunrise.

Mars, Mercury, Earth’s moon and the dwarf planet Ceres. Mars is smaller than Earth, but bigger than our moon. Image via NASA/JPL-Caltech/UCLA.

Mars fading into western evening twilight. Mars has had a good long run in our evening sky, but, in late May and June, the red planet is a fading ember of its former self. Mars is edging closer to the sunset day by day. It’ll disappear, if it hasn’t already, in the glare of evening dusk this month.

Because Earth is traveling faster in its orbit than Mars is, Earth’s distance from Mars is increasing day by day. So there are two reasons for Mars’ disappearing act this month. Its increasing distance from Earth means Mars’ brightness is decreasing. Plus, Mars is setting sooner after the sun with each passing day.

After June, Mars won’t be in view from Earth for several months. It’ll be in the sun’s glare, traveling more or less behind the sun from Earth.

Mars won’t officially transition from evening to morning sky until July 27, 2017, however. That’s the date on which Mars is most nearly behind the sun as seen from Earth, at what astronomers call superior conjunction. Mars emerge in the east before dawn in late September or October 2017. The conjunction of Mars and Venus on October 5, 2017, will likely present the first view of Mars in the morning sky for many skywatchers.

Looking for a sky almanac? EarthSky recommends…

Wow! Wonderful shot of Mercury – over the Chilean Andes – January 2017, from Yuri Beletsky Nightscapes.

Live in the Southern Hemisphere or northern tropics? You have a good chance of catching Mercury beneath Venus in the morning sky during the first week of June 2017. Click here for an almanac giving you the rising time of the sun, Mercury and Venus in your sky.

Mercury lost in glare of sun. When we say this, we’re really talking about the Northern Hemisphere. For the Southern Hemisphere, Mercury will still be in view in the morning sky during the first week of June. If you live in the Southern Hemisphere, look for Mercury low in the east, beneath Venus, as the predawn darkness is giving way to morning dawn.

Mercury is tricky. If you look too soon before sunrise, Mercury will still be below the horizon; if you look too late, it’ll be obscured by the morning twilight. Watch for Mercury low in the sky, and near the sunrise point on the horizon, being mindful of Mercury’s rising time.

Throughout June, Mercury sinks closer to the sun day by day. It passes behind the sun on June 21, thereby transitioning over to the evening sky. After June 21, Mercury will be traveling east of the sun in our sky. It’ll be officially in the west after sunset. It’ll reach its greatest eastern elongation on July 30, 2017.

We expect Mercury to first become visible in the western evening twilight toward the end of the first week of July.

What do we mean by bright planet? By bright planet, we mean any solar system planet that is easily visible without an optical aid and that has been watched by our ancestors since time immemorial. In their outward order from the sun, the five bright planets are Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn. These planets actually do appear bright in our sky. They are typically as bright as – or brighter than – the brightest stars. Plus, these relatively nearby worlds tend to shine with a steadier light than the distant, twinkling stars. You can spot them, and come to know them as faithful friends, if you try.

From late January, and through mid-February, 5 bright planets were visible at once in the predawn sky. This image is from February 8, 2016. It's by Eliot Herman in Tucson, Arizona. View on Flickr.

This image is from February 8, 2016. It shows all 5 bright planets at once. Photo by our friend Eliot Herman in Tucson, Arizona.

Skywatcher, by Predrag Agatonovic.

Skywatcher, by Predrag Agatonovic.

Bottom line: In June 2017, two of the five bright planets appear in the evening sky: Jupiter and Saturn. Venus is found exclusively in the morning sky. Mars and Mercury hide in the sun’s glare.

Don’t miss anything. Subscribe to EarthSky News by email

Enjoy knowing where to look in the night sky? Please donate to help EarthSky keep going.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/IJfHCr