Why the New Year begins on January 1

Children in Hong Kong wear 2018 glasses during New Year’s Eve celebrations. Image via Kin Cheung/ AP/ Aljazeera.com.

The date of a new year isn’t precisely fixed by any natural or seasonal marker. Instead, our celebration of New Year’s Day on January 1 is a civil event. That’s despite the fact that, for us in the Northern Hemisphere where the amount of daylight has ebbed to its lowest point and the days are getting longer again, there’s a feeling of rebirth in the air.

Our modern celebration of New Year’s Day stems from an ancient Roman custom, the feast of the Roman god Janus – god of doorways and beginnings. The name for the month of January also comes from Janus, who was depicted as having two faces. One face of Janus looked back into the past, and the other peered forward to the future.

To celebrate the new year, the Romans made promises to Janus. From this ancient practice comes our tradition of making New Year’s Day resolutions.

Best New Year’s gift ever! EarthSky moon calendar for 2018

Janus the doorkeeper via tablesbeyondbelief.

January 1 hasn’t been New Year’s Day throughout history, though. In the past, some New Year’s celebrations took place at an equinox, a day when the sun is above Earth’s equator, and night and day are equal in length. In many cultures, the March or vernal equinox marks a time of transition and new beginnings, and so cultural celebrations of a new year were natural for that equinox. The September or autumnal equinox also had its proponents for the beginning of a new year. For example, the French Republican Calendar – implemented during the French Revolution and used for about 12 years from late 1793 to 1805 – started its year at the September equinox.

The Greeks celebrated the new year on the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year.

Today, although many do celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1, some cultures and religions do not. Jews use a lunar calendar and celebrate the New Year on Rosh Hashana, the first day of the month of Tishri, which is the first month of their calendar. This date usually occurs in September.

Most are also familiar with the Chinese New Year, celebrated for weeks in January or early February. In 2018, the Chinese New Year of the Dog begins on February 16.

By the way, in addition to the longer days here in the Northern Hemisphere, there’s another astronomical occurrence around January 1 each year that’s also related to Earth’s year, as defined by our orbit around the sun. That is, Earth’s perihelion – or closest point to the sun – happens every year in early January. In 2018, perihelion comes on January 3.

Image credit: NASA

We don’t celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1 for this reason, but it would make sense if we did. Perihelion – our closest point to the sun in our yearly orbit – takes place each year around January 3. Image via NASA

Bottom line: The reason to celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1 is historical, not astronomical. The New Year was celebrated according to astronomical events – such as equinoxes and solstices – eons ago. Our modern New Year’s celebration stems from the ancient, two-faced, Roman god Janus, after whom the month of January is also named. One face of Janus looked back into the past, and the other peered forward to the future.



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Children in Hong Kong wear 2018 glasses during New Year’s Eve celebrations. Image via Kin Cheung/ AP/ Aljazeera.com.

The date of a new year isn’t precisely fixed by any natural or seasonal marker. Instead, our celebration of New Year’s Day on January 1 is a civil event. That’s despite the fact that, for us in the Northern Hemisphere where the amount of daylight has ebbed to its lowest point and the days are getting longer again, there’s a feeling of rebirth in the air.

Our modern celebration of New Year’s Day stems from an ancient Roman custom, the feast of the Roman god Janus – god of doorways and beginnings. The name for the month of January also comes from Janus, who was depicted as having two faces. One face of Janus looked back into the past, and the other peered forward to the future.

To celebrate the new year, the Romans made promises to Janus. From this ancient practice comes our tradition of making New Year’s Day resolutions.

Best New Year’s gift ever! EarthSky moon calendar for 2018

Janus the doorkeeper via tablesbeyondbelief.

January 1 hasn’t been New Year’s Day throughout history, though. In the past, some New Year’s celebrations took place at an equinox, a day when the sun is above Earth’s equator, and night and day are equal in length. In many cultures, the March or vernal equinox marks a time of transition and new beginnings, and so cultural celebrations of a new year were natural for that equinox. The September or autumnal equinox also had its proponents for the beginning of a new year. For example, the French Republican Calendar – implemented during the French Revolution and used for about 12 years from late 1793 to 1805 – started its year at the September equinox.

The Greeks celebrated the new year on the winter solstice, the shortest day of the year.

Today, although many do celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1, some cultures and religions do not. Jews use a lunar calendar and celebrate the New Year on Rosh Hashana, the first day of the month of Tishri, which is the first month of their calendar. This date usually occurs in September.

Most are also familiar with the Chinese New Year, celebrated for weeks in January or early February. In 2018, the Chinese New Year of the Dog begins on February 16.

By the way, in addition to the longer days here in the Northern Hemisphere, there’s another astronomical occurrence around January 1 each year that’s also related to Earth’s year, as defined by our orbit around the sun. That is, Earth’s perihelion – or closest point to the sun – happens every year in early January. In 2018, perihelion comes on January 3.

Image credit: NASA

We don’t celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1 for this reason, but it would make sense if we did. Perihelion – our closest point to the sun in our yearly orbit – takes place each year around January 3. Image via NASA

Bottom line: The reason to celebrate New Year’s Day on January 1 is historical, not astronomical. The New Year was celebrated according to astronomical events – such as equinoxes and solstices – eons ago. Our modern New Year’s celebration stems from the ancient, two-faced, Roman god Janus, after whom the month of January is also named. One face of Janus looked back into the past, and the other peered forward to the future.



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2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #52

Happy New Year!... Story of the Week... Analysis of the Week... Toon of the Week... Quote of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Poster of the Week...  SkS Week in Review... 97 Hours of Consensus...

Happy New Year!

2017 Poster 52 

Happy New Year from the all-volunteer, SkS author team!

Story of the Week...

How We Know It Was Climate Change

Houston Floding_Hurricane Harvey Sep 2017 

Flooding south of Houston in September in the wake of Hurricane Harvey. Barbara Davidson for The New York Times

This was a year of devastating weather, including historic hurricanes and wildfires here in the United States. Did climate change play a role? Increasingly, scientists are able to answer that question — and increasingly, the answer is yes.

My lab recently published a new framework for examining connections between global warming and extreme events. Other scientists are doing similar research. How would we go about testing whether global warming has influenced the events that occurred this year?

Consider Hurricane Harvey, which caused enormous destruction along the Gulf Coast; it will cost an estimated $180 billion to recover from the hurricane’s storm surge, high winds and record-setting precipitation and flooding. Did global warming contribute to this disaster?

The word “contribute” is key. This doesn’t mean that without global warming, there wouldn’t have been a hurricane. Rather, the question is whether changes in the climate raised the odds of producing extreme conditions. 

How We Know It Was Climate Change, Opinion by Noah S Diffenbach, Sunday Review, New York Times, Dec 29, 2017

Analysis of the Week...

The President Doesn't Care to Understand Global Warming

President Trump raises his hand toward a camera. President Trump departs for holiday travel to his Mar-a-Lago estate on Dec 22

President Trump departs for holiday travel to his Mar-a-Lago estate on Friday, December 22

In the first novel ever written about Sherlock Homes, we learn something peculiar about the London detective. Holmes, supposedly a modern man and a keen expert in the workings of the world, does not know how the solar system works. Specifically he is unfamiliar with the heliocentric Copernican model, which, upon its slow acceptance in the 17th century, revolutionized Western thought about the place of our species in the universe.

“What the deuce is it to me?” Holmes asks his sputtering soon-to-be sidekick, Dr. Watson. “You say that we go ’round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of difference to me or to my work.”

Brains are a kind of “little empty attic,” says the detective, and they should be filled only with furniture that’s useful to one’s line of work. Holmes doesn’t doubt the Copernican model; he simply has no use for it in solving murder cases. “Now that I do know it,” he adds, “I shall do my best to forget it.”

Thursday night, as record lows gripped most of the country’s northern half, President Trump clarified that he does not understand another revolution in our knowledge of the natural order of things: the theory of human-driven climate change.

The President Doesn't Care to Understand Global Warming by Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic, Dec 29, 2017 

Toon of the Week...

2017 Toon 52 

Quote of the Week...

I like to think of the Earth’s climate like a heavy train. A train cannot stop quickly; the brakes have to be applied far ahead of an obstacle. The ocean is our “climate train.”

US government climate report looks at how the oceans are buffering climate change by John Abraham, Climate Consensus - the 97%, Guardian, Dec 26, 2017 

Coming Soon on SkS...

  • On its hundredth birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming' (Ben Franta)
  • 2017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming (Dana)
  • SkS Year in Review (Baerbel)
  • Guest Post (John Abraham)
  • New research this week (Ari)
  • 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #1 (John Hartz)
  • 2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Waming Digest #1 (John Hartz)

Poster of the Week...

 2017 Poster 52

SkS Week in Review... 

97 Hours of Consensus...

97 Hours: John Mitchell 

 

John Mitchell's bio page and Quote source

High resolution JPEG (1024 pixels wide)



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2C175bu

Happy New Year!... Story of the Week... Analysis of the Week... Toon of the Week... Quote of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Poster of the Week...  SkS Week in Review... 97 Hours of Consensus...

Happy New Year!

2017 Poster 52 

Happy New Year from the all-volunteer, SkS author team!

Story of the Week...

How We Know It Was Climate Change

Houston Floding_Hurricane Harvey Sep 2017 

Flooding south of Houston in September in the wake of Hurricane Harvey. Barbara Davidson for The New York Times

This was a year of devastating weather, including historic hurricanes and wildfires here in the United States. Did climate change play a role? Increasingly, scientists are able to answer that question — and increasingly, the answer is yes.

My lab recently published a new framework for examining connections between global warming and extreme events. Other scientists are doing similar research. How would we go about testing whether global warming has influenced the events that occurred this year?

Consider Hurricane Harvey, which caused enormous destruction along the Gulf Coast; it will cost an estimated $180 billion to recover from the hurricane’s storm surge, high winds and record-setting precipitation and flooding. Did global warming contribute to this disaster?

The word “contribute” is key. This doesn’t mean that without global warming, there wouldn’t have been a hurricane. Rather, the question is whether changes in the climate raised the odds of producing extreme conditions. 

How We Know It Was Climate Change, Opinion by Noah S Diffenbach, Sunday Review, New York Times, Dec 29, 2017

Analysis of the Week...

The President Doesn't Care to Understand Global Warming

President Trump raises his hand toward a camera. President Trump departs for holiday travel to his Mar-a-Lago estate on Dec 22

President Trump departs for holiday travel to his Mar-a-Lago estate on Friday, December 22

In the first novel ever written about Sherlock Homes, we learn something peculiar about the London detective. Holmes, supposedly a modern man and a keen expert in the workings of the world, does not know how the solar system works. Specifically he is unfamiliar with the heliocentric Copernican model, which, upon its slow acceptance in the 17th century, revolutionized Western thought about the place of our species in the universe.

“What the deuce is it to me?” Holmes asks his sputtering soon-to-be sidekick, Dr. Watson. “You say that we go ’round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of difference to me or to my work.”

Brains are a kind of “little empty attic,” says the detective, and they should be filled only with furniture that’s useful to one’s line of work. Holmes doesn’t doubt the Copernican model; he simply has no use for it in solving murder cases. “Now that I do know it,” he adds, “I shall do my best to forget it.”

Thursday night, as record lows gripped most of the country’s northern half, President Trump clarified that he does not understand another revolution in our knowledge of the natural order of things: the theory of human-driven climate change.

The President Doesn't Care to Understand Global Warming by Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic, Dec 29, 2017 

Toon of the Week...

2017 Toon 52 

Quote of the Week...

I like to think of the Earth’s climate like a heavy train. A train cannot stop quickly; the brakes have to be applied far ahead of an obstacle. The ocean is our “climate train.”

US government climate report looks at how the oceans are buffering climate change by John Abraham, Climate Consensus - the 97%, Guardian, Dec 26, 2017 

Coming Soon on SkS...

  • On its hundredth birthday in 1959, Edward Teller warned the oil industry about global warming' (Ben Franta)
  • 2017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming (Dana)
  • SkS Year in Review (Baerbel)
  • Guest Post (John Abraham)
  • New research this week (Ari)
  • 2018 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #1 (John Hartz)
  • 2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Waming Digest #1 (John Hartz)

Poster of the Week...

 2017 Poster 52

SkS Week in Review... 

97 Hours of Consensus...

97 Hours: John Mitchell 

 

John Mitchell's bio page and Quote source

High resolution JPEG (1024 pixels wide)



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Does a supermoon have a super effect on us?

A merge of two images: moon from Wikimedia Commons and Superman emblem, via layoutsparks.com

EarthSky’s 2018 lunar calendars are here! Get yours while they last.

The term supermoon denotes a new or full moon that occurs at roughly the same time the moon is nearest Earth in its monthly orbit. We’re coming up on the “most super” supermoon of 2018 on January 1 (January 2 for Asia, Australia, New Zealand), which will light up the nighttime from dusk to dawn.

An astrologer, not an astronomer, coined the term supermoon, and it has come into wide usage only recently. It’s an example of modern folklore, largely accepted and spread by a now-global community, via word of mouth and the Internet.

Some might suppose that a supermoon has some kind of effect on people on Earth. But does it? I decided to calculate the values of different influences on individuals at the extreme of lunar perigee, the point at which the moon is closest to Earth and, presumably, has the greatest effect on our planet.

Image courtesy of Jim Fisher.

Astronomers use the term perigee to describe the moon’s closest point to Earth, from Greek words peri meaning “near” and gee meaning “Earth.”

In astronomy and other sciences, a related term – perigean tides – refers to the higher tides that can occur when a new or full moon and the month’s perigee coincide, as they fairly frequently do. Simply put, an extra-close new or full moon causes higher-than-usual perigean tides.

What’s more, given the change in distance between the moon’s farthest and closest points, the full moon can appear as much as 14% larger in the sky and 30% brighter to our eyes than at minimum size and brightness.

These changes do not come all of a sudden from month to month, however, and without anything with which to compare them, the changes in the moon’s size or brightness are hard to quantify by simple observation. To notice the difference, you would need to see the apogean (smallest) full moon and the perigean (largest) full moon side by side. For most of us, that’s only possible through photography or through some form of direct measurement, although careful observers have claimed to be able to discern a supermoon’s extra large size with the eye.

During the time of a supermoon – or any new or full moon – our satellite is in line with the sun. At that time, the sun and moon’s gravitational effects combine. For reasons we won’t discuss here, the sun’s gravitational effect on Earth (as in influencing the tides) is only about half that of the moon. For this discussion, we will simply ignore the sun’s influence.

When the moon is closest to the Earth, its gravitational pull is at its peak.

So the question becomes, how much does the moon’s gravitational influence on Earth vary from minimum (apogee, or farthest point from the planet) to maximum (perigee)?

I won’t bore you (or scare you!) with the math, but the variation from minimum lunar pull to maximum pull is roughly 23 percent. That sounds like a lot. However, it amounts to  less than 2 ten-thousandths of the mass (or less precisely, the “weight”) of the moon.

Join the Virtual Telescope Project in Rome for an online viewing of the January 1, 2018 supermoon.

More importantly from an astrological perspective (I presume, since I decidedly am not an astrologer) would be the effect on a human being. Consider an 80-kilogram (176-pound) human being. The maximum difference between apogean and perigean moons is about 73 milligrams, or about 1/14th the mass of an ordinary paper clip.

If you factor in the solar gravity effect for a supermoon, or full moon closest to Earth, this effect may rise to about 110 milligrams, roughly equivalent to about 1/9th the mass of a paperclip.

In either case, the effects are imperceptible, and far smaller than those encountered in other everyday situations, such as being near a mountain or even a large building.

But, you might counter, I said earlier than an extra-close full moon causes higher-than-usual perigean tides. The tides are a very different situation from human beings. Tides work through what is called a differential gravitational effect. Specifically, the force of gravity exerted on the part of the Earth opposite the moon (the far side of Earth, as seen from the moon) is slightly less than the force of gravity exerted on the part of the Earth directly beneath the moon (the Earth’s near side, as seen from the moon) at any given time. Why? Because there’s an additional distance – about 8,000 miles – from one side of Earth to the other. The force of gravity weakens rapidly with increasing distance, producing the differential.

The result of this differential gravitational effect of the moon is that our planet is stretched slightly, along a line between the Earth and moon. The body of the Earth is fairly rigid, so it does not stretch much, but the oceans are much more easily moved. Thus the effect piles up water on either side of Earth, and these piles of water – created by the differential gravitational effect – are the tides. Note that, on average, the tidal effect is quite small. It raises tides only a few feet across an 8,000-mile-wide planet Earth.

Technically, the same effect acts on your body as well, since one side is farther from the moon than the other. However, the difference in distance is on the order of one foot, rather than thousands of miles. Thus the differential is millions of times less, and the effect on a human body infinitesimally small and irrelevant.

Supermoons are important because they focus attention on the moon, and nature in general. But the bottom line is that any physical effects of supermoons are not exactly super. There is no reasonable evidence that they cause super disasters. The effects that people may attribute to them are psychological rather than physical.

There are several supermoons this year and every year. To learn about supermoons in general try this EarthSky post: What is a supermoon?

Enjoying EarthSky? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!

Will Saunders caught the moonset – at nearly the crest of the moon’s full phase – from Monument Valley, on the Utah-Arizona border.

Bottom line: Sure, the moon (and sun) creates the tides. And an extra close moon can create higher-than-usual tides. But this doesn’t mean that an extra close new or full moon – a supermoon – has an effect on human beings. In fact, the effects of a supermoon are imperceptible, and far smaller than those encountered in other everyday situations, such as being near a mountain or even a large building.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/12HZwhf

A merge of two images: moon from Wikimedia Commons and Superman emblem, via layoutsparks.com

EarthSky’s 2018 lunar calendars are here! Get yours while they last.

The term supermoon denotes a new or full moon that occurs at roughly the same time the moon is nearest Earth in its monthly orbit. We’re coming up on the “most super” supermoon of 2018 on January 1 (January 2 for Asia, Australia, New Zealand), which will light up the nighttime from dusk to dawn.

An astrologer, not an astronomer, coined the term supermoon, and it has come into wide usage only recently. It’s an example of modern folklore, largely accepted and spread by a now-global community, via word of mouth and the Internet.

Some might suppose that a supermoon has some kind of effect on people on Earth. But does it? I decided to calculate the values of different influences on individuals at the extreme of lunar perigee, the point at which the moon is closest to Earth and, presumably, has the greatest effect on our planet.

Image courtesy of Jim Fisher.

Astronomers use the term perigee to describe the moon’s closest point to Earth, from Greek words peri meaning “near” and gee meaning “Earth.”

In astronomy and other sciences, a related term – perigean tides – refers to the higher tides that can occur when a new or full moon and the month’s perigee coincide, as they fairly frequently do. Simply put, an extra-close new or full moon causes higher-than-usual perigean tides.

What’s more, given the change in distance between the moon’s farthest and closest points, the full moon can appear as much as 14% larger in the sky and 30% brighter to our eyes than at minimum size and brightness.

These changes do not come all of a sudden from month to month, however, and without anything with which to compare them, the changes in the moon’s size or brightness are hard to quantify by simple observation. To notice the difference, you would need to see the apogean (smallest) full moon and the perigean (largest) full moon side by side. For most of us, that’s only possible through photography or through some form of direct measurement, although careful observers have claimed to be able to discern a supermoon’s extra large size with the eye.

During the time of a supermoon – or any new or full moon – our satellite is in line with the sun. At that time, the sun and moon’s gravitational effects combine. For reasons we won’t discuss here, the sun’s gravitational effect on Earth (as in influencing the tides) is only about half that of the moon. For this discussion, we will simply ignore the sun’s influence.

When the moon is closest to the Earth, its gravitational pull is at its peak.

So the question becomes, how much does the moon’s gravitational influence on Earth vary from minimum (apogee, or farthest point from the planet) to maximum (perigee)?

I won’t bore you (or scare you!) with the math, but the variation from minimum lunar pull to maximum pull is roughly 23 percent. That sounds like a lot. However, it amounts to  less than 2 ten-thousandths of the mass (or less precisely, the “weight”) of the moon.

Join the Virtual Telescope Project in Rome for an online viewing of the January 1, 2018 supermoon.

More importantly from an astrological perspective (I presume, since I decidedly am not an astrologer) would be the effect on a human being. Consider an 80-kilogram (176-pound) human being. The maximum difference between apogean and perigean moons is about 73 milligrams, or about 1/14th the mass of an ordinary paper clip.

If you factor in the solar gravity effect for a supermoon, or full moon closest to Earth, this effect may rise to about 110 milligrams, roughly equivalent to about 1/9th the mass of a paperclip.

In either case, the effects are imperceptible, and far smaller than those encountered in other everyday situations, such as being near a mountain or even a large building.

But, you might counter, I said earlier than an extra-close full moon causes higher-than-usual perigean tides. The tides are a very different situation from human beings. Tides work through what is called a differential gravitational effect. Specifically, the force of gravity exerted on the part of the Earth opposite the moon (the far side of Earth, as seen from the moon) is slightly less than the force of gravity exerted on the part of the Earth directly beneath the moon (the Earth’s near side, as seen from the moon) at any given time. Why? Because there’s an additional distance – about 8,000 miles – from one side of Earth to the other. The force of gravity weakens rapidly with increasing distance, producing the differential.

The result of this differential gravitational effect of the moon is that our planet is stretched slightly, along a line between the Earth and moon. The body of the Earth is fairly rigid, so it does not stretch much, but the oceans are much more easily moved. Thus the effect piles up water on either side of Earth, and these piles of water – created by the differential gravitational effect – are the tides. Note that, on average, the tidal effect is quite small. It raises tides only a few feet across an 8,000-mile-wide planet Earth.

Technically, the same effect acts on your body as well, since one side is farther from the moon than the other. However, the difference in distance is on the order of one foot, rather than thousands of miles. Thus the differential is millions of times less, and the effect on a human body infinitesimally small and irrelevant.

Supermoons are important because they focus attention on the moon, and nature in general. But the bottom line is that any physical effects of supermoons are not exactly super. There is no reasonable evidence that they cause super disasters. The effects that people may attribute to them are psychological rather than physical.

There are several supermoons this year and every year. To learn about supermoons in general try this EarthSky post: What is a supermoon?

Enjoying EarthSky? Sign up for our free daily newsletter today!

Will Saunders caught the moonset – at nearly the crest of the moon’s full phase – from Monument Valley, on the Utah-Arizona border.

Bottom line: Sure, the moon (and sun) creates the tides. And an extra close moon can create higher-than-usual tides. But this doesn’t mean that an extra close new or full moon – a supermoon – has an effect on human beings. In fact, the effects of a supermoon are imperceptible, and far smaller than those encountered in other everyday situations, such as being near a mountain or even a large building.



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Full moon obscures Quadrantid meteor shower

View larger. | In 2014, as the Quadrantids were flying, those at far northern latitudes were seeing auroras. Photo by Tommy Eliassen.

The Quadrantid meteor shower is 2018’s first major meteor shower. The unfortunate news is that, in 2018, the closest and largest full moon of the year nearly coincides with the peak of this annual meteor shower. Although the Quadrantids have been known to produce some 50-100 meteors in a dark sky, their peak is extremely narrow. Peaks of the Perseid or Geminid meteor showers persist for a day or more, allowing all time zones around the world to enjoy a good display of Perseids and Geminids. But the Quadrantids’ peak lasts only a few hours. So you have to be on the right part of Earth – preferably with the radiant high in your sky – in order to experience the peak of the Quadrantids. What’s more, the shower favors the Northern Hemisphere because its radiant point is so far north on the sky’s dome. Follow the links below to learn more about the Quadrantids in 2018.

Peak dates for the Quadrantid shower in 2018

Where is the Quadrantids’ radiant point?

The Quadrantids are named for a constellation that no longer exists.

Quadrantid meteors have a mysterious parent object.

Barry Simmons in Lake Martin, Alabama captured this Quadrantid meteor on the morning of January 3, 2014. Thank you, Barry.

Barry Simmons in Lake Martin, Alabama captured this Quadrantid meteor on the morning of January 3, 2014. Thank you, Barry.

Peak dates for the Quadrantid shower in 2018 In 2018, the Observer’s Handbook 2018 published by the Royal Astronomical Society in Canada gives the peak as January 3 at 21 hours UTC. The International Meteor Organization seems to be in close agreement, listing 22 hours UTC as the peak. Keep in mind the prediction of the Quadrantid peak represents an educated guess, not an ironclad guarantee. So you see … this shower is a gamble!

If that prediction of the peak holds true, the northeastern part of North America could have a good shot at viewing the shower on the morning of January 3 – if not for the almost-full waning gibbous moon. If you’re game, try your luck in the predawn hours on Janaury 3 and 4.

From mid-northern latitudes, the radiant point for the Quadrantid shower doesn’t climb over the horizon until after midnight.

Where is the Quadrantids’ radiant point? All other things being equal, for any meteor shower, you are likely to see the most meteors when the radiant is high in the sky. In the case of the Quadrantid shower, the radiant point is seen highest in the sky in the dark hour before dawn.

The radiant point of the Quadrantid shower makes an approximate right angle with the Big Dipper and the bright star Arcturus. If you trace the paths of the Quadrantid meteors backward, they appear to radiate from this point on the starry sky.

Now for our usual caveat. You don’t need to find the meteor shower radiant to see the Quadrantid meteors.

You just have to be at mid-northern or far-northern latitudes, up in the wee hours of the morning and hope the peak comes at just the right time to your part of the world. The meteors will radiate from the northern sky, but appear in all parts of the sky.

The now-defunct constellation Quadrans Muralis, for which the Quadrantids are named. Image via Atlas Coelestis.

The Quadrantids are named for a constellation that no longer exists. Most meteor showers are named for the constellations from which they appear to radiate. So it is with the Quadrantids. But the Quadrantids’ constellation no longer exists, except in memory. The name Quadrantids comes from the constellation Quadrans Muralis (Mural Quadrant), created by the French astronomer Jerome Lalande in 1795. This now-obsolete constellation was located between the constellations of Bootes the Herdsman and Draco the Dragon. Where did it go?

To understand the history of the Quadrantids’ name, we have to go back to the earliest observations of this shower. In early January 1825, Antonio Brucalassi in Italy reported that:

… the atmosphere was traversed by a multitude of the luminous bodies known by the name of falling stars.

They appeared to radiate from Quadrans Muralis. In 1839, Adolphe Quetelet of Brussels Observatory in Belgium and Edward C. Herrick in Connecticut independently made the suggestion that the Quadrantids are an annual shower.

But, in 1922, the International Astronomical Union devised a list 88 modern constellations. The list was agreed upon by the International Astronomical Union at its inaugural General Assembly held in Rome in May 1922. It did not include a constellation Quadrans Muralis.

Today, this meteor shower retains the name Quadrantids, for the original and now obsolete constellation Quadrans Muralis.

The radiant point for the Quadrantids is now considered to be at the northern tip of Bootes, near the Big Dipper asterism in our sky, not far from Bootes’ brightest star Arcturus. It is very far north on the sky’s dome, which is why Southern Hemisphere observers probably won’t see many (if any) Quadrantid meteors. Most of the meteors simply won’t make it above the horizon for Southern Hemisphere skywatchers. But some might!

In 2003, Peter Jenniskens proposed that this object, 2003 EH1, is the parent body of the Quadrantid meteor shower.

Quadrantid meteors have a mysterious parent object. In 2003, astronomer Peter Jenniskens tentatively identified the parent body of the Quadrantids as the asteroid 2003 EH1. If indeed this body is the Quadrantids parent, then the Quadrantids, like the Geminid meteors, come from a rocky body – not an icy comet. Strange.

In turn, though, 2003 EH1 might be the same object as the comet C/1490 Y1, which was observed by Chinese, Japanese and Korean astronomers 500 years ago.

So the exact story behind the Quadrantids’ parent object remains somewhat mysterious.

Bottom line: The first major meteor shower of 2018, and every year, the Quadrantid meteor shower, will probably be at its best in the hours between midnight and dawn January 3. Unfortunately, in 2018, the largest full moon of the year will almost coincide with the peak of this annual shower.

Celebrate 2018 with an EarthSky moon calendar!



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View larger. | In 2014, as the Quadrantids were flying, those at far northern latitudes were seeing auroras. Photo by Tommy Eliassen.

The Quadrantid meteor shower is 2018’s first major meteor shower. The unfortunate news is that, in 2018, the closest and largest full moon of the year nearly coincides with the peak of this annual meteor shower. Although the Quadrantids have been known to produce some 50-100 meteors in a dark sky, their peak is extremely narrow. Peaks of the Perseid or Geminid meteor showers persist for a day or more, allowing all time zones around the world to enjoy a good display of Perseids and Geminids. But the Quadrantids’ peak lasts only a few hours. So you have to be on the right part of Earth – preferably with the radiant high in your sky – in order to experience the peak of the Quadrantids. What’s more, the shower favors the Northern Hemisphere because its radiant point is so far north on the sky’s dome. Follow the links below to learn more about the Quadrantids in 2018.

Peak dates for the Quadrantid shower in 2018

Where is the Quadrantids’ radiant point?

The Quadrantids are named for a constellation that no longer exists.

Quadrantid meteors have a mysterious parent object.

Barry Simmons in Lake Martin, Alabama captured this Quadrantid meteor on the morning of January 3, 2014. Thank you, Barry.

Barry Simmons in Lake Martin, Alabama captured this Quadrantid meteor on the morning of January 3, 2014. Thank you, Barry.

Peak dates for the Quadrantid shower in 2018 In 2018, the Observer’s Handbook 2018 published by the Royal Astronomical Society in Canada gives the peak as January 3 at 21 hours UTC. The International Meteor Organization seems to be in close agreement, listing 22 hours UTC as the peak. Keep in mind the prediction of the Quadrantid peak represents an educated guess, not an ironclad guarantee. So you see … this shower is a gamble!

If that prediction of the peak holds true, the northeastern part of North America could have a good shot at viewing the shower on the morning of January 3 – if not for the almost-full waning gibbous moon. If you’re game, try your luck in the predawn hours on Janaury 3 and 4.

From mid-northern latitudes, the radiant point for the Quadrantid shower doesn’t climb over the horizon until after midnight.

Where is the Quadrantids’ radiant point? All other things being equal, for any meteor shower, you are likely to see the most meteors when the radiant is high in the sky. In the case of the Quadrantid shower, the radiant point is seen highest in the sky in the dark hour before dawn.

The radiant point of the Quadrantid shower makes an approximate right angle with the Big Dipper and the bright star Arcturus. If you trace the paths of the Quadrantid meteors backward, they appear to radiate from this point on the starry sky.

Now for our usual caveat. You don’t need to find the meteor shower radiant to see the Quadrantid meteors.

You just have to be at mid-northern or far-northern latitudes, up in the wee hours of the morning and hope the peak comes at just the right time to your part of the world. The meteors will radiate from the northern sky, but appear in all parts of the sky.

The now-defunct constellation Quadrans Muralis, for which the Quadrantids are named. Image via Atlas Coelestis.

The Quadrantids are named for a constellation that no longer exists. Most meteor showers are named for the constellations from which they appear to radiate. So it is with the Quadrantids. But the Quadrantids’ constellation no longer exists, except in memory. The name Quadrantids comes from the constellation Quadrans Muralis (Mural Quadrant), created by the French astronomer Jerome Lalande in 1795. This now-obsolete constellation was located between the constellations of Bootes the Herdsman and Draco the Dragon. Where did it go?

To understand the history of the Quadrantids’ name, we have to go back to the earliest observations of this shower. In early January 1825, Antonio Brucalassi in Italy reported that:

… the atmosphere was traversed by a multitude of the luminous bodies known by the name of falling stars.

They appeared to radiate from Quadrans Muralis. In 1839, Adolphe Quetelet of Brussels Observatory in Belgium and Edward C. Herrick in Connecticut independently made the suggestion that the Quadrantids are an annual shower.

But, in 1922, the International Astronomical Union devised a list 88 modern constellations. The list was agreed upon by the International Astronomical Union at its inaugural General Assembly held in Rome in May 1922. It did not include a constellation Quadrans Muralis.

Today, this meteor shower retains the name Quadrantids, for the original and now obsolete constellation Quadrans Muralis.

The radiant point for the Quadrantids is now considered to be at the northern tip of Bootes, near the Big Dipper asterism in our sky, not far from Bootes’ brightest star Arcturus. It is very far north on the sky’s dome, which is why Southern Hemisphere observers probably won’t see many (if any) Quadrantid meteors. Most of the meteors simply won’t make it above the horizon for Southern Hemisphere skywatchers. But some might!

In 2003, Peter Jenniskens proposed that this object, 2003 EH1, is the parent body of the Quadrantid meteor shower.

Quadrantid meteors have a mysterious parent object. In 2003, astronomer Peter Jenniskens tentatively identified the parent body of the Quadrantids as the asteroid 2003 EH1. If indeed this body is the Quadrantids parent, then the Quadrantids, like the Geminid meteors, come from a rocky body – not an icy comet. Strange.

In turn, though, 2003 EH1 might be the same object as the comet C/1490 Y1, which was observed by Chinese, Japanese and Korean astronomers 500 years ago.

So the exact story behind the Quadrantids’ parent object remains somewhat mysterious.

Bottom line: The first major meteor shower of 2018, and every year, the Quadrantid meteor shower, will probably be at its best in the hours between midnight and dawn January 3. Unfortunately, in 2018, the largest full moon of the year will almost coincide with the peak of this annual shower.

Celebrate 2018 with an EarthSky moon calendar!



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Brightest star Sirius’ midnight culmination on New Years Eve

Tonight – New Year’s Eve – look up for the brightest star in the sky, Sirius, in the constellation Canis Major. This star is up in the evening every year at this time, and – from all parts of Earth (except those far-southern realms in continuous daylight now) – Sirius is easy to identify. December 31 is a special night, the end of a calendar year. And it’s a special night for Sirius, too. This star’s official midnight culmination – when it’s highest in the sky at midnight – comes only once every year. And tonight’s the night.

From the Northern Hemisphere … look toward the south, and you’ll easily notice Sirius shining there at around midnight. From the Southern Hemisphere … look overhead or high in the north at around midnight.

And, by the way, by midnight, we mean the middle of the night, midway between sunset and sunrise.

This star is so bright that you might notice it twinkling fiercely, especially from northerly latitudes, where the star stays closer to the horizon. You might even see it flashing hints of different colors. When you see Sirius high in the sky, as you will from Earth’s Southern Hemisphere, it’ll shine with a bright, steady white light.

Remember … the midnight culmination of Sirius by the clock might be off by as much as one-half hour or so, depending on how far east or west you live from the meridian that governs your time zone.

Click here for transit (midnight culmination) times for Sirius in your sky

Even from big cities, you can see Sirius, the sky’s brightest star. Gowrishankar Lakshminarayanan created this composite image on December 26, 2017 and wrote: “After a series of clouded night skies in New York City, we finally got a clear night though it was bitter cold and the temperature dropped to 25 F.! Here you can see the brightest star of the winter night sky – Sirius – and its path as it rises in the southeast sky to clip the spire of the Freedom Tower. This is a 78-image composite, spaced 30 seconds apart. I always thought that star trails within light-polluted city skies weren’t a good idea, since we hardly see any stars. However, thanks to bright stars like Sirius, we can still show a nice star trail in NYC!”

Bottom line: If you’re celebrating the New Year, and you happen to gaze up at the sky, look for Sirius. This star’s midnight culmination – when it’s highest in the sky at midnight – comes on New Year’s Eve.

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Tonight – New Year’s Eve – look up for the brightest star in the sky, Sirius, in the constellation Canis Major. This star is up in the evening every year at this time, and – from all parts of Earth (except those far-southern realms in continuous daylight now) – Sirius is easy to identify. December 31 is a special night, the end of a calendar year. And it’s a special night for Sirius, too. This star’s official midnight culmination – when it’s highest in the sky at midnight – comes only once every year. And tonight’s the night.

From the Northern Hemisphere … look toward the south, and you’ll easily notice Sirius shining there at around midnight. From the Southern Hemisphere … look overhead or high in the north at around midnight.

And, by the way, by midnight, we mean the middle of the night, midway between sunset and sunrise.

This star is so bright that you might notice it twinkling fiercely, especially from northerly latitudes, where the star stays closer to the horizon. You might even see it flashing hints of different colors. When you see Sirius high in the sky, as you will from Earth’s Southern Hemisphere, it’ll shine with a bright, steady white light.

Remember … the midnight culmination of Sirius by the clock might be off by as much as one-half hour or so, depending on how far east or west you live from the meridian that governs your time zone.

Click here for transit (midnight culmination) times for Sirius in your sky

Even from big cities, you can see Sirius, the sky’s brightest star. Gowrishankar Lakshminarayanan created this composite image on December 26, 2017 and wrote: “After a series of clouded night skies in New York City, we finally got a clear night though it was bitter cold and the temperature dropped to 25 F.! Here you can see the brightest star of the winter night sky – Sirius – and its path as it rises in the southeast sky to clip the spire of the Freedom Tower. This is a 78-image composite, spaced 30 seconds apart. I always thought that star trails within light-polluted city skies weren’t a good idea, since we hardly see any stars. However, thanks to bright stars like Sirius, we can still show a nice star trail in NYC!”

Bottom line: If you’re celebrating the New Year, and you happen to gaze up at the sky, look for Sirius. This star’s midnight culmination – when it’s highest in the sky at midnight – comes on New Year’s Eve.

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2017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #52

A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook page during the past week. 

Editor's Pick

Vive la résistance: 10 ways people stood up for the planet in 2017

Vive la resistance 

Grist / Justin Sullivan / Staff / Getty Images

One year ago, we wondered what would happen after a man who called climate change a Chinese hoax was elected president of the United States.

Certainly, 2017 will be remembered for a series of cringe-worthy political appointments, disappointing regulatory repeals, and controversial executive actions — not to mention Trump’s decision to exit the Paris Agreement. But it was also a year that birthed a new band of scrappy resisters who fought the climate-change denying, regulation-repealing powers that be.

As a result, 2017 was actually a pretty impressive year for resistance — and here are some of the efforts that led that charge: 

Vive la résistance: 10 ways people stood up for the planet in 2017 by Justine Calma, Grist, Dec 27, 2017

Links posted on Facebook

Sun Dec 24, 2017

Mon Dec 25, 2017

Tue Dec 26, 2017

Wed Dec 27, 2017

Thu Dec 28, 2017

Fri Dec 29, 2017

Sat Dec 30, 2017



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2Eixkfb
A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook page during the past week. 

Editor's Pick

Vive la résistance: 10 ways people stood up for the planet in 2017

Vive la resistance 

Grist / Justin Sullivan / Staff / Getty Images

One year ago, we wondered what would happen after a man who called climate change a Chinese hoax was elected president of the United States.

Certainly, 2017 will be remembered for a series of cringe-worthy political appointments, disappointing regulatory repeals, and controversial executive actions — not to mention Trump’s decision to exit the Paris Agreement. But it was also a year that birthed a new band of scrappy resisters who fought the climate-change denying, regulation-repealing powers that be.

As a result, 2017 was actually a pretty impressive year for resistance — and here are some of the efforts that led that charge: 

Vive la résistance: 10 ways people stood up for the planet in 2017 by Justine Calma, Grist, Dec 27, 2017

Links posted on Facebook

Sun Dec 24, 2017

Mon Dec 25, 2017

Tue Dec 26, 2017

Wed Dec 27, 2017

Thu Dec 28, 2017

Fri Dec 29, 2017

Sat Dec 30, 2017



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Top 7 EarthSky galleries of 2017

Here are the most popular photo galleries from 2017:

Moon sweeps past Venus and Mars. As 2017 opened, the young moon swept past dazzling Venus in the west after sunset. Mars was there, too, and, for those with optical aid, Neptune! Go to gallery.

As seen from the Northern Hemisphere, the moon, Venus and Mars arced up and to the left of the sunset Sunday evening, January 1, 2017. Photo by Gowrishankar Lakshminarayanan Parsippany, New Jersey. More photos here.

February 10-11 lunar eclipse. A penumbral eclipse is subtle, but has a quiet beauty all its own. Go to gallery.

February 10, 2017 full moon rising over northeast Oklahoma, with a tinge of Earth’s penumbral shadow visible. Photo by Mike O’Neal. More photos.

Moon and Jupiter. Wonderful photos of the moon and Jupiter on June 3, 2017, from around the world. Go to gallery.

Moon and Jupiter on June 3, 2017 from Deirdre Horan in Dublin, Ireland. More photos.

Summer full moon. EarthSky friends are moon-lovers! Favorite photos of the July 2017 full moon from EarthSky friends around the world. Go to gallery.

John Ashley at Glacier National Park, Montana, wrote: “The July 2017 full moon rises over Mount Saint Nicholas on its way into a warm summer dusk. Video on my FB page at JohnAshleyFineArt. More photos. ”

Total solar eclipse. We received many more wonderful photos of the August 21 eclipse than for any prior event. Go to gallery.

Sue Waddell contributed this eclipse composite from Eastview, Kentucky, where there was a 98.3% eclipse. More photos.

Orionid meteor shower. October’s Orionid meteor shower didn’t disappoint. Go to gallery.

Composite image of meteors seen on the morning of October 21, 2017 from Simon Lee Waldram of Fuerteshoot in Spain. More photos.

A grand year for the Geminids. December’s Geminid meteor shower was thought to have a better-than-average chance of producing a rich display, since the Geminids’ parent body – a strange rock-comet called 3200 Phaethon – is nearby. And so it was! Go to gallery.

“The Geminids are good,” reported veteran meteor observer Eliot Herman in Tucson, Arizona, who captured this fireball on the morning of December 14 around 4 a.m. More photos.

Bottom line: Favorite Earthsky photo galleries of 2017.



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Here are the most popular photo galleries from 2017:

Moon sweeps past Venus and Mars. As 2017 opened, the young moon swept past dazzling Venus in the west after sunset. Mars was there, too, and, for those with optical aid, Neptune! Go to gallery.

As seen from the Northern Hemisphere, the moon, Venus and Mars arced up and to the left of the sunset Sunday evening, January 1, 2017. Photo by Gowrishankar Lakshminarayanan Parsippany, New Jersey. More photos here.

February 10-11 lunar eclipse. A penumbral eclipse is subtle, but has a quiet beauty all its own. Go to gallery.

February 10, 2017 full moon rising over northeast Oklahoma, with a tinge of Earth’s penumbral shadow visible. Photo by Mike O’Neal. More photos.

Moon and Jupiter. Wonderful photos of the moon and Jupiter on June 3, 2017, from around the world. Go to gallery.

Moon and Jupiter on June 3, 2017 from Deirdre Horan in Dublin, Ireland. More photos.

Summer full moon. EarthSky friends are moon-lovers! Favorite photos of the July 2017 full moon from EarthSky friends around the world. Go to gallery.

John Ashley at Glacier National Park, Montana, wrote: “The July 2017 full moon rises over Mount Saint Nicholas on its way into a warm summer dusk. Video on my FB page at JohnAshleyFineArt. More photos. ”

Total solar eclipse. We received many more wonderful photos of the August 21 eclipse than for any prior event. Go to gallery.

Sue Waddell contributed this eclipse composite from Eastview, Kentucky, where there was a 98.3% eclipse. More photos.

Orionid meteor shower. October’s Orionid meteor shower didn’t disappoint. Go to gallery.

Composite image of meteors seen on the morning of October 21, 2017 from Simon Lee Waldram of Fuerteshoot in Spain. More photos.

A grand year for the Geminids. December’s Geminid meteor shower was thought to have a better-than-average chance of producing a rich display, since the Geminids’ parent body – a strange rock-comet called 3200 Phaethon – is nearby. And so it was! Go to gallery.

“The Geminids are good,” reported veteran meteor observer Eliot Herman in Tucson, Arizona, who captured this fireball on the morning of December 14 around 4 a.m. More photos.

Bottom line: Favorite Earthsky photo galleries of 2017.



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The Pleiades, or Seven Sisters

The Pleiades – also known as the Seven Sisters, or as M45 – as this beautiful star cluster appears through binoculars, via Project Nightflight.

Karoline Mrazek and Erwin Matys in Vienna, Austria – who work under the name Project Nightflight – wrote:

When winter is here, so is one of the most magnificent star clusters in the sky, the Pleiades. You can observe them with the unaided eye from almost any location during these winter evenings … [our image] shows the star cluster as it looks in typical binoculars. We digitally combined two series of shots with different exposure times with another set of diffusor shots to get the final image. Some processing was used to make the image appear as seen through binoculars. This is the fourth in our series of binocular simulations, which include the Perseus Double Cluster, the M46/47 pair and the Beehive Cluster.

With this Pleiades image we would like to thank all our friends and followers, sponsors and media partners, for their ongoing encouragement. We wish you all a prosperous and happy New Year 2018!

Thank you and happy new year to you, Karoline and Erwin and all in the Project Nightflight community! By the way, other astrophotographers in the EarthSky community have also submitted beautiful photos of the Pleiades throughout this past fall. A sampling below.

Read more about the Pleiades star cluster, aka the Seven Sisters

Greg Hogan in Kathleen, Georgia submitted this photo to EarthSky on November 22, 2017. Thanks, Greg!

Pleiades through fog, November 16, 2017, via Kurt Zeppetello in Monroe, Connecticut.Thank you, Kurt.

View larger. | A. Kannan wrote on November 21, 2017: “The Pleiades and Hyades [another star cluster, near the Pleiades] were seen clearly in Singapore skies yesterday at 10:30 p.m. Picture taken from my flat in the northern part of our island city-state. Though light pollution is high in Singapore, it is amazing that we could see these clusters, thanks to the clear night skies and the star Aldebaran [brightest star in the Hyades and in the entire constellation Taurus].” Thank you, A. Kannan!

View larger. | Grant Miller wrote on November 18, 2017: “Two of my favorite and easiest star patterns to spot in the night sky, Orion the Hunter and the Pleiades (Seven Sisters).” Thank you, Grant.

Bottom line: Photos and info of the Pleiades star cluster, one of the easiest-to-spot star clusters in the night sky. The Pleiades appear to the eye as a tiny, misty dipper.



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The Pleiades – also known as the Seven Sisters, or as M45 – as this beautiful star cluster appears through binoculars, via Project Nightflight.

Karoline Mrazek and Erwin Matys in Vienna, Austria – who work under the name Project Nightflight – wrote:

When winter is here, so is one of the most magnificent star clusters in the sky, the Pleiades. You can observe them with the unaided eye from almost any location during these winter evenings … [our image] shows the star cluster as it looks in typical binoculars. We digitally combined two series of shots with different exposure times with another set of diffusor shots to get the final image. Some processing was used to make the image appear as seen through binoculars. This is the fourth in our series of binocular simulations, which include the Perseus Double Cluster, the M46/47 pair and the Beehive Cluster.

With this Pleiades image we would like to thank all our friends and followers, sponsors and media partners, for their ongoing encouragement. We wish you all a prosperous and happy New Year 2018!

Thank you and happy new year to you, Karoline and Erwin and all in the Project Nightflight community! By the way, other astrophotographers in the EarthSky community have also submitted beautiful photos of the Pleiades throughout this past fall. A sampling below.

Read more about the Pleiades star cluster, aka the Seven Sisters

Greg Hogan in Kathleen, Georgia submitted this photo to EarthSky on November 22, 2017. Thanks, Greg!

Pleiades through fog, November 16, 2017, via Kurt Zeppetello in Monroe, Connecticut.Thank you, Kurt.

View larger. | A. Kannan wrote on November 21, 2017: “The Pleiades and Hyades [another star cluster, near the Pleiades] were seen clearly in Singapore skies yesterday at 10:30 p.m. Picture taken from my flat in the northern part of our island city-state. Though light pollution is high in Singapore, it is amazing that we could see these clusters, thanks to the clear night skies and the star Aldebaran [brightest star in the Hyades and in the entire constellation Taurus].” Thank you, A. Kannan!

View larger. | Grant Miller wrote on November 18, 2017: “Two of my favorite and easiest star patterns to spot in the night sky, Orion the Hunter and the Pleiades (Seven Sisters).” Thank you, Grant.

Bottom line: Photos and info of the Pleiades star cluster, one of the easiest-to-spot star clusters in the night sky. The Pleiades appear to the eye as a tiny, misty dipper.



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New Year’s Honours 2018: Professor Caroline Dive, CBE, and her career in lung cancer research

In this year’s New Year’s Honours list one of our researchers, Professor Caroline Dive, has been named a Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE). We spoke to her about this recognition of her outstanding career, the changes she has seen in her time at the Cancer Research UK Manchester Institute and what’s she’s excited for in the future.

When did you find out that you were on the list?

It was a couple of weeks ago. I was in London at the time. My husband phoned me and said I had a letter with ‘On Her Majesty’s Service’ on the envelope. I presumed it was a tax bill but when he opened it and read it aloud I almost fell over with surprise.

How does it feel to be Professor Caroline Dive, CBE?

I think amazed is the best word to use. As well as incredibly delighted, not just for me but for the Institute. Even though it’s a personal award for services to cancer research, I think it reflects the multidisciplinary team work that we’ve built here in Manchester. Over the last decade we’ve worked really hard to pull scientists and clinicians together to get science into clinical trials to improve patient outcomes.

Getting this honour must make you reflect on you career, are there any defining moments?

What is a cancer biomarker?

A naturally occurring molecule that is special to a cancer cell or a process associated with cancer and can be used to provide information about a patient’s disease.

I took a calculated risk in 2003 to move away from more basic science, an area of cancer research that was my comfort zone, to set up a new translational research team focussed on biomarkers. I knew it was the right thing to do as I was working right next to the Christie Hospital in Manchester and every day I could see the impact cancer had on people and that personalised medicine needed to be developed. This required useful biomarkers that could be measured to patients’ samples. There weren’t very many cancer researchers really dedicated to this type of research at the time, so it was an area that needed investigation. It was very much a risk worth taking.

What are you most proud of from your time at the Cancer Research UK Manchester Institute?

I’m  very proud of the research we’ve done in lung cancer. In Manchester I have been working very closely with medical oncologist Dr Fiona Blackhall, my partner on the clinical side at the Christie Hospital. Together we’re 2 plus 2 equals 10. Setting up the Cancer Research UK Lung Cancer Centre of Excellence between Manchester and UCL with Professor Charles Swanton has also been very productive and am I am delighted with the increase in the training of young lung cancer researchers we have achieved. It’s team work like this which improves outcomes for patients.

I’m also very proud of the way we have developed a training environment for clinicians to learn about biomarker sciences. We began the Clinical Pharmacology Fellowship scheme in 2005 and I’ve been training clinical fellows in the lab ever since, which has been both a privilege and a pleasure.

Prof Dive’s research in a nutshell:

Professor Caroline Dive and her team are developing ‘liquid biopsies’ that hunt for cancer cells or molecules within cancer cells that have broken free from tumours and are circulating in the bloodstream. These liquid biopsies are less invasive for the patient than tumour biopsies and offer clues about how cancer develops, grows and spreads, what treatment might be best and how tumours can become resistant to treatment.

What’s your most important paper that you’ve published and what did it show?

We published a paper in the journal Nature Medicine in 2014 that I think was a real ‘step change’ for small cell lung cancer research. We showed that we can take circulating tumour cells from the blood samples of patients with small cell lung cancer and grow them to form tumours just like the patient’s in mice. Growing the tumour away from the patient in this way had never been done before and all we needed was a 10 ml sample of blood from the patient rather than an invasive biopsy of the lung. It means we can study the biology of this dismal disease and test a variety of treatments to see which ones are best at killing the cancer cells. We are now working with a number of drug developers aiming to take the most effective drugs to clinical trials. The day we got that paper published was very much a defining moment for our team.

How has cancer research changed through the course of your career?

There has been a revolution really in the basic understanding of cancers and how we can personalise a patient’s treatment since I started my career in the mid 1980s. I’ve done a lot of work with Cancer Research UK to develop biomarker sciences. At the start, I witnessed clinical trials without biomarkers, but now more and more often the biology is being better understood. Now the biomarkers that come from this understanding are driving the clinical trial designs. That’s the journey that I have been on with Cancer Research UK in Manchester and it’s been brilliant to be part of that journey.

What are you excited for in the future?

In the future, I hope that personalised medicine will become more and more commonplace in the clinic and that we will be using blood testing (liquid biopsies), routinely to inform a patient’s treatment. Ultimately, I would like to see the development of very sensitive tests and folks giving their blood samples within their communities so that cancers could be picked up earlier with better chance of effective treatment. I have been very fortunate to work with two great leaders at the Institute, Professor Nic Jones and then Professor Richard Marais. The platform we have built together means that our future research is ambitious and exciting, bringing the science and the clinic ever closer together.

And finally, what are your motivations that help you get up and go to the lab every morning?

That’s an easy question. Since 2003, I have worked in the same building as the Christie Hospital. The urgent medical need is walking along those corridors every day of my working life. But also, my paternal grandfather died of a brain tumour. I never got to meet him, he died before I was born. It had a profound impact on my mother and as I was going through my young career, I think this was always at the back of my mind.

Our Chief Executive, Sir Harpal Kumar, said:

“This is a fantastic and well deserved honour for Caroline. Cancer Research UK is extremely proud to have supported Caroline for most of her research career. Her pursuit of answers to the questions that will transform the outlook for cancer patients is relentless. Her work is helping us to more precisely define which patients should get which treatments, and is showing great promise in being able to detect potentially lethal cancers earlier, when they have a greater chance of being treated successfully. Caroline is also helping train the next generation of doctors and researchers, offering hope for countless patients in the future.”

To find out more about Professor Caroline Dive’s work watch this video.

And read about Professor Caroline Dive’s research in more detail in this blog post.

Gabi



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In this year’s New Year’s Honours list one of our researchers, Professor Caroline Dive, has been named a Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE). We spoke to her about this recognition of her outstanding career, the changes she has seen in her time at the Cancer Research UK Manchester Institute and what’s she’s excited for in the future.

When did you find out that you were on the list?

It was a couple of weeks ago. I was in London at the time. My husband phoned me and said I had a letter with ‘On Her Majesty’s Service’ on the envelope. I presumed it was a tax bill but when he opened it and read it aloud I almost fell over with surprise.

How does it feel to be Professor Caroline Dive, CBE?

I think amazed is the best word to use. As well as incredibly delighted, not just for me but for the Institute. Even though it’s a personal award for services to cancer research, I think it reflects the multidisciplinary team work that we’ve built here in Manchester. Over the last decade we’ve worked really hard to pull scientists and clinicians together to get science into clinical trials to improve patient outcomes.

Getting this honour must make you reflect on you career, are there any defining moments?

What is a cancer biomarker?

A naturally occurring molecule that is special to a cancer cell or a process associated with cancer and can be used to provide information about a patient’s disease.

I took a calculated risk in 2003 to move away from more basic science, an area of cancer research that was my comfort zone, to set up a new translational research team focussed on biomarkers. I knew it was the right thing to do as I was working right next to the Christie Hospital in Manchester and every day I could see the impact cancer had on people and that personalised medicine needed to be developed. This required useful biomarkers that could be measured to patients’ samples. There weren’t very many cancer researchers really dedicated to this type of research at the time, so it was an area that needed investigation. It was very much a risk worth taking.

What are you most proud of from your time at the Cancer Research UK Manchester Institute?

I’m  very proud of the research we’ve done in lung cancer. In Manchester I have been working very closely with medical oncologist Dr Fiona Blackhall, my partner on the clinical side at the Christie Hospital. Together we’re 2 plus 2 equals 10. Setting up the Cancer Research UK Lung Cancer Centre of Excellence between Manchester and UCL with Professor Charles Swanton has also been very productive and am I am delighted with the increase in the training of young lung cancer researchers we have achieved. It’s team work like this which improves outcomes for patients.

I’m also very proud of the way we have developed a training environment for clinicians to learn about biomarker sciences. We began the Clinical Pharmacology Fellowship scheme in 2005 and I’ve been training clinical fellows in the lab ever since, which has been both a privilege and a pleasure.

Prof Dive’s research in a nutshell:

Professor Caroline Dive and her team are developing ‘liquid biopsies’ that hunt for cancer cells or molecules within cancer cells that have broken free from tumours and are circulating in the bloodstream. These liquid biopsies are less invasive for the patient than tumour biopsies and offer clues about how cancer develops, grows and spreads, what treatment might be best and how tumours can become resistant to treatment.

What’s your most important paper that you’ve published and what did it show?

We published a paper in the journal Nature Medicine in 2014 that I think was a real ‘step change’ for small cell lung cancer research. We showed that we can take circulating tumour cells from the blood samples of patients with small cell lung cancer and grow them to form tumours just like the patient’s in mice. Growing the tumour away from the patient in this way had never been done before and all we needed was a 10 ml sample of blood from the patient rather than an invasive biopsy of the lung. It means we can study the biology of this dismal disease and test a variety of treatments to see which ones are best at killing the cancer cells. We are now working with a number of drug developers aiming to take the most effective drugs to clinical trials. The day we got that paper published was very much a defining moment for our team.

How has cancer research changed through the course of your career?

There has been a revolution really in the basic understanding of cancers and how we can personalise a patient’s treatment since I started my career in the mid 1980s. I’ve done a lot of work with Cancer Research UK to develop biomarker sciences. At the start, I witnessed clinical trials without biomarkers, but now more and more often the biology is being better understood. Now the biomarkers that come from this understanding are driving the clinical trial designs. That’s the journey that I have been on with Cancer Research UK in Manchester and it’s been brilliant to be part of that journey.

What are you excited for in the future?

In the future, I hope that personalised medicine will become more and more commonplace in the clinic and that we will be using blood testing (liquid biopsies), routinely to inform a patient’s treatment. Ultimately, I would like to see the development of very sensitive tests and folks giving their blood samples within their communities so that cancers could be picked up earlier with better chance of effective treatment. I have been very fortunate to work with two great leaders at the Institute, Professor Nic Jones and then Professor Richard Marais. The platform we have built together means that our future research is ambitious and exciting, bringing the science and the clinic ever closer together.

And finally, what are your motivations that help you get up and go to the lab every morning?

That’s an easy question. Since 2003, I have worked in the same building as the Christie Hospital. The urgent medical need is walking along those corridors every day of my working life. But also, my paternal grandfather died of a brain tumour. I never got to meet him, he died before I was born. It had a profound impact on my mother and as I was going through my young career, I think this was always at the back of my mind.

Our Chief Executive, Sir Harpal Kumar, said:

“This is a fantastic and well deserved honour for Caroline. Cancer Research UK is extremely proud to have supported Caroline for most of her research career. Her pursuit of answers to the questions that will transform the outlook for cancer patients is relentless. Her work is helping us to more precisely define which patients should get which treatments, and is showing great promise in being able to detect potentially lethal cancers earlier, when they have a greater chance of being treated successfully. Caroline is also helping train the next generation of doctors and researchers, offering hope for countless patients in the future.”

To find out more about Professor Caroline Dive’s work watch this video.

And read about Professor Caroline Dive’s research in more detail in this blog post.

Gabi



from Cancer Research UK – Science blog http://ift.tt/2zO3ETw
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Moon hides Aldebaran on December 30

Notice that the chart above shows the moon on December 29 and 31, 2017 but not December 30. We left off the December 30 moon because – on the scale of our chart – the moon was blotting the star Aldebaran from view. In the real sky, most everyone around the world will see the waxing gibbous moon near Aldebaran – the brightest star in the constellation Taurus the Bull – on December 30. For some, the moon will be shining so close to this star on December 30 that you’ll have to look closely to see the star. And, for some, Aldebaran won’t be visible. The moon will, indeed, have blotted this star from view.

To see the moon hide – or, as astronomers say, occult – Aldebaran on the night of December 30, you’ll need to reside at just the right spot on Earth’s globe. How long the occultation will last will depend on your location, too.

Northeastern North America, Greenland, Iceland and northern Europe are all in a fine position to observe this lunar occultation of Aldebaran on the night of December 30.

As seen on the worldwide map below, you have to be north (above) the white curve in order to be in the occultation viewing area. The short blue lines show where the occultation takes place at evening dusk, and the dotted red line depicts where the occultation occurs in a daytime sky (on the afternoon of December 30).

Worldwide map of occultation of Aldebaran by the moon on night of December 30, 2017, via IOTA. The occultation happens in a nighttime sky above the curved white line, at evening dusk above the short blue line, and in a daytime sky above the dotted red line.

The moon disappears behind the moon’s dark side and then reappears on its illuminated side. But tonight’s moon is so close to being full that you might not even discern its very narrow sliver of darkness.

Click here to find out when this occultation happens for well over a thousand localities in Universal Time (UTC). Remember to convert Universal Time (UTC) to your local time. Here’s how.

For you convenience, we give the occultation times in local time for various localities:

New York City, New York, USA (December 30, 2017)
Occultation begins (Aldebaran disappears): 6:24:35 p.m. local time
Occultation ends (Aldebaran reappears): 7:16:08 p.m. local time

Montreal, Canada (December 30, 2017)
Occultation begins (Aldebaran disappears): 6:28:12 p.m. local time
Occultation ends (Aldebaran reappears): 7:27:42 p.m. local time

Godthaab (Nuuk), Greenland (December 30, 2017)
Occultation begins (Aldebaran disappears): 9:08:59 p.m. local time
Occultation ends (Aldebaran reappears): 10:13:22 p.m. local time

Rweykjavik, Iceland (December 31, 2017)
Occultation begins (Aldebaran disappears): 12:35:05 a.m. local time
Occultation ends (Aldebaran reappears): 1:38:39 a.m. local time

London, Great Britain (December 31, 2017)
Occultation begins (Aldebaran disappears): 1:13:38 a.m. local time
Occultation ends (Aldebaran reappears): 1:58:56 a.m. local time

Paris, France (December 31, 2017)
Occultation begins (Aldebaran disappears): 2:28:08 a.m. local time
Occultation ends (Aldebaran reappears): 2:59:47 a.m. local time

This is the second of two lunar occultations of Aldebaran in December 2017; the first came on the night of December 2-3, 2017. Tonight’s occultation also marks the 40th of a series of 49 occultations of Aldebaran that started on on January 29, 2015, and will conclude on September 3, 2018. To watch any one of these occultations of Aldebaran, however, you have to be at the right spot on the Earth’s surface.

Orion's Belt, at the lower left, always points in the direction of the constellation Taurus the Bull. The star Aldebaran resides to the south of the ecliptic and the Pleiades star cluster to the north of the ecliptic.

Orion’s Belt, at the lower left, always points in the direction of the constellation Taurus the Bull. The star Aldebaran resides to the south of the ecliptic and the Pleiades star cluster to the north of the ecliptic.

Whenever the moon travels through the constellation Taurus, it can swing anywhere from 5o south to 5o north of the ecliptic – Earth’s orbital plane projected onto the constellations of the zodiac. When the moon reaches a southern extreme, it occults – covers over – Aldebaran once every month, for months on end. When the moon reaches a northern extreme, it then occults the stars of the Pleiades cluster for months on end. That’s because Aldebaran lodges to the south of the ecliptic, while the Pleiades star cluster resides to the north of it, as shown on the sky chart of Taurus above.

The moon will reach a northern extreme in the constellation Taurus in the year 2025. At that juncture, the moon will be occulting Alcyone, brightest star in the Pleiades star cluster. That’ll happen on a monthly basis from September 5, 2023 to July 7, 2029. Something to look forward to!

Bottom line: We all can see Aldebaran – brightest star in Taurus the Bull – near the moon on the night of December 30, 2017. Those in northeastern North America, Greenland, Iceland and northern Europe can see the moon pass in front of Aldebaran.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2DzqII4

Notice that the chart above shows the moon on December 29 and 31, 2017 but not December 30. We left off the December 30 moon because – on the scale of our chart – the moon was blotting the star Aldebaran from view. In the real sky, most everyone around the world will see the waxing gibbous moon near Aldebaran – the brightest star in the constellation Taurus the Bull – on December 30. For some, the moon will be shining so close to this star on December 30 that you’ll have to look closely to see the star. And, for some, Aldebaran won’t be visible. The moon will, indeed, have blotted this star from view.

To see the moon hide – or, as astronomers say, occult – Aldebaran on the night of December 30, you’ll need to reside at just the right spot on Earth’s globe. How long the occultation will last will depend on your location, too.

Northeastern North America, Greenland, Iceland and northern Europe are all in a fine position to observe this lunar occultation of Aldebaran on the night of December 30.

As seen on the worldwide map below, you have to be north (above) the white curve in order to be in the occultation viewing area. The short blue lines show where the occultation takes place at evening dusk, and the dotted red line depicts where the occultation occurs in a daytime sky (on the afternoon of December 30).

Worldwide map of occultation of Aldebaran by the moon on night of December 30, 2017, via IOTA. The occultation happens in a nighttime sky above the curved white line, at evening dusk above the short blue line, and in a daytime sky above the dotted red line.

The moon disappears behind the moon’s dark side and then reappears on its illuminated side. But tonight’s moon is so close to being full that you might not even discern its very narrow sliver of darkness.

Click here to find out when this occultation happens for well over a thousand localities in Universal Time (UTC). Remember to convert Universal Time (UTC) to your local time. Here’s how.

For you convenience, we give the occultation times in local time for various localities:

New York City, New York, USA (December 30, 2017)
Occultation begins (Aldebaran disappears): 6:24:35 p.m. local time
Occultation ends (Aldebaran reappears): 7:16:08 p.m. local time

Montreal, Canada (December 30, 2017)
Occultation begins (Aldebaran disappears): 6:28:12 p.m. local time
Occultation ends (Aldebaran reappears): 7:27:42 p.m. local time

Godthaab (Nuuk), Greenland (December 30, 2017)
Occultation begins (Aldebaran disappears): 9:08:59 p.m. local time
Occultation ends (Aldebaran reappears): 10:13:22 p.m. local time

Rweykjavik, Iceland (December 31, 2017)
Occultation begins (Aldebaran disappears): 12:35:05 a.m. local time
Occultation ends (Aldebaran reappears): 1:38:39 a.m. local time

London, Great Britain (December 31, 2017)
Occultation begins (Aldebaran disappears): 1:13:38 a.m. local time
Occultation ends (Aldebaran reappears): 1:58:56 a.m. local time

Paris, France (December 31, 2017)
Occultation begins (Aldebaran disappears): 2:28:08 a.m. local time
Occultation ends (Aldebaran reappears): 2:59:47 a.m. local time

This is the second of two lunar occultations of Aldebaran in December 2017; the first came on the night of December 2-3, 2017. Tonight’s occultation also marks the 40th of a series of 49 occultations of Aldebaran that started on on January 29, 2015, and will conclude on September 3, 2018. To watch any one of these occultations of Aldebaran, however, you have to be at the right spot on the Earth’s surface.

Orion's Belt, at the lower left, always points in the direction of the constellation Taurus the Bull. The star Aldebaran resides to the south of the ecliptic and the Pleiades star cluster to the north of the ecliptic.

Orion’s Belt, at the lower left, always points in the direction of the constellation Taurus the Bull. The star Aldebaran resides to the south of the ecliptic and the Pleiades star cluster to the north of the ecliptic.

Whenever the moon travels through the constellation Taurus, it can swing anywhere from 5o south to 5o north of the ecliptic – Earth’s orbital plane projected onto the constellations of the zodiac. When the moon reaches a southern extreme, it occults – covers over – Aldebaran once every month, for months on end. When the moon reaches a northern extreme, it then occults the stars of the Pleiades cluster for months on end. That’s because Aldebaran lodges to the south of the ecliptic, while the Pleiades star cluster resides to the north of it, as shown on the sky chart of Taurus above.

The moon will reach a northern extreme in the constellation Taurus in the year 2025. At that juncture, the moon will be occulting Alcyone, brightest star in the Pleiades star cluster. That’ll happen on a monthly basis from September 5, 2023 to July 7, 2029. Something to look forward to!

Bottom line: We all can see Aldebaran – brightest star in Taurus the Bull – near the moon on the night of December 30, 2017. Those in northeastern North America, Greenland, Iceland and northern Europe can see the moon pass in front of Aldebaran.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/2DzqII4
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New research, December 18-24, 2017

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #62.

Climate change impacts

1. The Sectoral and Regional Economic Consequences of Climate Change to 2060

"The model results show that damages are projected to rise twice as fast as global economic activity; global annual Gross Domestic Product losses are projected to be 1.0–3.3% by 2060. Of the impacts that are modelled, impacts on labour productivity and agriculture are projected to have the largest negative economic consequences. Damages from sea level rise grow most rapidly after the middle of the century. Damages to energy and tourism are very small from a global perspective, as benefits in some regions balance damages in others. Climate-induced damages from hurricanes may have significant effects on local communities, but the macroeconomic consequences are projected to be very small. Net economic consequences are projected to be especially large in Africa and Asia, where the regional economies are vulnerable to a range of different climate impacts. For some countries in higher latitudes, economic benefits can arise from gains in tourism, energy and health. The global assessment also shows that countries that are relatively less affected by climate change may reap trade gains."

2. An ecophysiological perspective on likely giant panda habitat responses to climate change

"In general, SAA [suitable activity area] in the hottest month (July) would reduce 11.7-52.2% by 2070, which is more moderate than predicted bamboo habitat loss (45.6-86.9%). Limited by the availability of bamboo and forest, panda's suitable habitat loss increases, and only 15.5-68.8% of current HSH would remain in 2070."

3. Temperature is the main correlate of the global biogeography of turtle body size

"Mean annual temperature was the main correlate of body size for the whole group and for terrestrial turtles in both approaches, having a positive correlation with this trait. Body sizes of aquatic turtles were not influenced by any of the tested variables. In the cross-species approach we also found that temperature variation since the LGM was an important positive correlate of body size in terrestrial turtles."

4. Screening criteria for increased susceptibility to heat stress during work or leisure in hot environments in healthy individuals aged 31–70 years

5. Agricultural policy and climate change: An integrated assessment of the impacts on an agricultural area of Southern Italy

6. Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems

7. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into the European Union’s development assistance

8. Re-thinking the present: The role of a historical focus in climate change adaptation research

9. Differentiating environmental concern in the context of psychological adaption to climate change

10. Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming

11. Sensitivity to ocean acidification differs between populations of the Sydney rock oyster: Role of filtration and ion-regulatory capacities

12. Effects of ocean acidification with pCO2 diurnal fluctuations on survival and larval shell formation of Ezo abalone, Haliotis discus hannai

13. Experimental evidence for reduced mortality of Agaricia lamarcki on a mesophotic reef

14. Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions

15. Long-term increases in tropical flowering activity across growth forms in response to rising CO2 and climate change

16. Observed and simulated sensitivities of spring greenup to preseason climate in northern temperate and boreal regions

17. Challenging a 15-year old claim: The NAO index as a predictor of spring migration phenology of birds

18. Contrasting above- and belowground organic matter decomposition and carbon and nitrogen dynamics in response to warming in High Arctic tundra

Climate change mitigation

19. The impact of the US retreat from the Paris Agreement: Kyoto revisited?

"We find that differences across the two treaties relating to the first three factors are more likely to reduce the negative ramifications of US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement compared to the Kyoto Protocol. However, the increased urgency of deep decarbonization renders US non-participation a major concern despite its declining share of global emissions. Moreover, key design features of the Paris Agreement suggest that other countries may react to the US decision by scaling back their levels of ambition and compliance, even if they remain in the Agreement."

20. Echo Chambers of Denial: Explaining User Comments on Climate Change

"The results show that users adapt to the dominant opinion within the respective media outlet: user comment sections serve as echo chambers rather than as corrective mechanisms. Climate change denial is more visible in user comment sections in countries where the climate change debate reflects the scientific consensus on climate change and user comments create niches of denial."

21. Public attitudes about climate policy options for aviation

"The findings indicate that there is significant support across demographic groups for a large number of policies, particularly those that place financial or regulatory burdens on industry rather than on individuals directly. Support for aviation policies strengthens with pro-environmental attitudes and is weaker among people who are aeromobile. Though self-interested considerations appeared to dominate policy option preferences, concern for fairness may also shape policy acceptability."

22. The effectiveness of climate clubs under Donald Trump

23. Beyond headline mitigation numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change

24. Mapping states’ Paris climate pledges: Analysing targets and groups at COP 21

25. Cost-effectiveness of reducing emissions from tropical deforestation, 2016–2050

26. International organizations, advocacy coalitions, and domestication of global norms: Debates on climate change in Canada, the US, Brazil, and India

27. The role of economic perceptions in influencing views on climate change: an experimental analysis with British respondents

28. Challenges to addressing non-CO2 greenhouse gases in China’s long-term climate strategy

29. Economic and environmental effects of a CO2 tax in Latin American countries

30. The welfare effects of energy price changes due to energy market reform in Mexico

31. Narrative matters for sustainability: the transformative role of storytelling in realizing 1.5°C futures

32. Reconstructed and Projected U.S. Residential Natural Gas Consumption During 1896-2043

33. Technical skills, disinterest and non-functional regulation: Barriers to building energy efficiency in Finland viewed by energy service companies

34. Trade-offs and synergies between universal electricity access and climate change mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa

35. Seasonal fuel consumption, stoves, and end-uses in rural households of the far-western development region of Nepal

36. Discussion on the effectiveness of cement replacement for carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction in concrete

37. Quantifying drivers of variability in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of consumer products—a case study on laundry washing in Europe

38. Climate engineering and the ocean: effects on biogeochemistry and primary production

39. Cleaning up nitrogen pollution may reduce future carbon sinks

Climate change

40. Will half a degree make a difference? Robust projections of indices of mean and extreme climate in Europe under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C global warming

"Compared to 1.5°C world, a further 0.5°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature indices (mean, Tn10p and Tn900p) over more than 70% of Europe. Robust changes (more than 0.5°C) in maximum temperature affects smaller areas (usually less than 20%). There is a substantial non-linear change of fixed-threshold indices, with more than 60% increase of the number of tropical nights over southern Europe, and more than 50% decrease in the number of frost days over central Europe."

41. Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century

"We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100–250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world's population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150–750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today's most severe heat waves by 2070–2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 °C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold."

42. Interactions between hydrological sensitivity, radiative cooling, stability and low-level cloud amount feedback

43. The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability

44. Autumn Cooling of Western East Antarctica Linked to the Tropical Pacific

45. High resolution temperature datasets in Portugal from a geostatistical approach: variability and extremes

46. North Pacific Influences on Long Island Sound Temperature Variability

47. Changes in surface air temperature over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming targets

48. A new assessment of modern climate change, China—An approach based on paleo-climate

49. Changes in “hotter and wetter” events across China

50. Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

51. Intensified East Asian summer monsoon and associated precipitation mode shift under the 1.5 °C global warming target

52. Spatial distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index in Southern Russia

53. Alpine foreland running drier? Sensitivity of a drought vulnerable catchment to changes in climate, land use, and water management

54. Breakdown of the relationship between Australian summer rainfall and ENSO caused by tropical Indian Ocean SST warming

55. ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia

56. On the fragile relationship between El Niño and California rainfall

57. Relationships of Rainy Season Precipitation and Temperature to Climate Indices in California: Long-Term Variability and Extreme Events

58. Large-scale heavy precipitation over central Europe and the role of atmospheric cyclone track types

59. Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought

60. 20th-century regional climate change in the central United States attributed to agricultural intensification

61. Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

62. Gradients of column CO2 across North America from the NOAA Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network

63. Influence of vegetation growth on the enhanced seasonality of atmospheric CO2

64. Modeling the origin of anthropogenic black carbon and its climatic effect over the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding regions

65. Non-Redfieldian Dynamics Explain Seasonal pCO2 Drawdown in the Gulf of Bothnia

66. Low pCO2 under sea-ice melt in the Canada Basin of the western Arctic Ocean

67. Satellite evidence that E. huxleyi phytoplankton blooms weaken marine carbon sinks

68. Unravel causes for the changing behavior of tropical Indian Ocean in the past few decades

69. Comparison of methodologies for cloud cover estimation in Brazil - A case study

70. Evaluation of different methods to model near-surface turbulent fluxes for a mountain glacier in the Cariboo Mountains, BC, Canada

71. Analysis of thickness changes and the associated driving factors on a debris-covered glacier in the Tienshan Mountain

72. Arctic sea-ice loss in different regions leads to contrasting Northern Hemisphere impacts

73. Impact of winter Ural blocking on Arctic sea ice: Short-time variability

74. How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent?

75. Prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the North Atlantic

76. The role of ions in new particle formation in the CLOUD chamber

Other papers

77. Tree-ring growth shows that the population decline started decades before the Black Death in Norway

"Since many of these fast-growing trees germinated in the early-14th century and the number of dated buildings drops dramatically several decades before the plague, the Black Death can hardly be the only reason for the population decline in Norway and some environmental impact must have occurred decades earlier. The dendroclimatological evidence of cold and wet summers in the years before the plague is suggestive, but historical sources also pinpoint famine due to crop failure. They also tell of farms being abandoned several decades before the plague and mention periods of heavy rainfall and famine in the early-14th century."

78. Evidence for the thermal bleaching of Porites corals from 4.0 ka BP in the northern South China Sea

"The results show that growth hiatuses and mortalities mainly occurred in summer, with high SST (31 – 34 °C) and SSS (32.8 – 38.4). In addition, abrupt negative shifts of 2 – 3‰ in δ13C were observed in almost all of the surfaces of growth hiatus and mortality, indicating adramatically reduced level of photosynthetic activity in symbiotic zooxanthellae. Because of the above reasons, we conclude that the frequently observed mortality and growth discontinuity of Porites corals from the mid-Holocene is evidence for thermal bleaching events in the past. That is, coral bleaching has occurred 3800-4200 years ago and is not a new phenomenon."

79. Biome stability in South America over the last 30 kyr: Inferences from long-term vegetation dynamics and habitat modelling

80. Creating a seamless 1 km resolution daily land surface temperature dataset for urban and surrounding areas in the conterminous United States

81. The Arctic System Reanalysis Version 2

82. Historical cropland expansion and abandonment in the continental U.S. during 1850 to 2016

83. The climate of the Common Era off the Iberian Peninsula



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/2lh2yLE

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #62.

Climate change impacts

1. The Sectoral and Regional Economic Consequences of Climate Change to 2060

"The model results show that damages are projected to rise twice as fast as global economic activity; global annual Gross Domestic Product losses are projected to be 1.0–3.3% by 2060. Of the impacts that are modelled, impacts on labour productivity and agriculture are projected to have the largest negative economic consequences. Damages from sea level rise grow most rapidly after the middle of the century. Damages to energy and tourism are very small from a global perspective, as benefits in some regions balance damages in others. Climate-induced damages from hurricanes may have significant effects on local communities, but the macroeconomic consequences are projected to be very small. Net economic consequences are projected to be especially large in Africa and Asia, where the regional economies are vulnerable to a range of different climate impacts. For some countries in higher latitudes, economic benefits can arise from gains in tourism, energy and health. The global assessment also shows that countries that are relatively less affected by climate change may reap trade gains."

2. An ecophysiological perspective on likely giant panda habitat responses to climate change

"In general, SAA [suitable activity area] in the hottest month (July) would reduce 11.7-52.2% by 2070, which is more moderate than predicted bamboo habitat loss (45.6-86.9%). Limited by the availability of bamboo and forest, panda's suitable habitat loss increases, and only 15.5-68.8% of current HSH would remain in 2070."

3. Temperature is the main correlate of the global biogeography of turtle body size

"Mean annual temperature was the main correlate of body size for the whole group and for terrestrial turtles in both approaches, having a positive correlation with this trait. Body sizes of aquatic turtles were not influenced by any of the tested variables. In the cross-species approach we also found that temperature variation since the LGM was an important positive correlate of body size in terrestrial turtles."

4. Screening criteria for increased susceptibility to heat stress during work or leisure in hot environments in healthy individuals aged 31–70 years

5. Agricultural policy and climate change: An integrated assessment of the impacts on an agricultural area of Southern Italy

6. Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems

7. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation into the European Union’s development assistance

8. Re-thinking the present: The role of a historical focus in climate change adaptation research

9. Differentiating environmental concern in the context of psychological adaption to climate change

10. Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming

11. Sensitivity to ocean acidification differs between populations of the Sydney rock oyster: Role of filtration and ion-regulatory capacities

12. Effects of ocean acidification with pCO2 diurnal fluctuations on survival and larval shell formation of Ezo abalone, Haliotis discus hannai

13. Experimental evidence for reduced mortality of Agaricia lamarcki on a mesophotic reef

14. Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions

15. Long-term increases in tropical flowering activity across growth forms in response to rising CO2 and climate change

16. Observed and simulated sensitivities of spring greenup to preseason climate in northern temperate and boreal regions

17. Challenging a 15-year old claim: The NAO index as a predictor of spring migration phenology of birds

18. Contrasting above- and belowground organic matter decomposition and carbon and nitrogen dynamics in response to warming in High Arctic tundra

Climate change mitigation

19. The impact of the US retreat from the Paris Agreement: Kyoto revisited?

"We find that differences across the two treaties relating to the first three factors are more likely to reduce the negative ramifications of US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement compared to the Kyoto Protocol. However, the increased urgency of deep decarbonization renders US non-participation a major concern despite its declining share of global emissions. Moreover, key design features of the Paris Agreement suggest that other countries may react to the US decision by scaling back their levels of ambition and compliance, even if they remain in the Agreement."

20. Echo Chambers of Denial: Explaining User Comments on Climate Change

"The results show that users adapt to the dominant opinion within the respective media outlet: user comment sections serve as echo chambers rather than as corrective mechanisms. Climate change denial is more visible in user comment sections in countries where the climate change debate reflects the scientific consensus on climate change and user comments create niches of denial."

21. Public attitudes about climate policy options for aviation

"The findings indicate that there is significant support across demographic groups for a large number of policies, particularly those that place financial or regulatory burdens on industry rather than on individuals directly. Support for aviation policies strengthens with pro-environmental attitudes and is weaker among people who are aeromobile. Though self-interested considerations appeared to dominate policy option preferences, concern for fairness may also shape policy acceptability."

22. The effectiveness of climate clubs under Donald Trump

23. Beyond headline mitigation numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change

24. Mapping states’ Paris climate pledges: Analysing targets and groups at COP 21

25. Cost-effectiveness of reducing emissions from tropical deforestation, 2016–2050

26. International organizations, advocacy coalitions, and domestication of global norms: Debates on climate change in Canada, the US, Brazil, and India

27. The role of economic perceptions in influencing views on climate change: an experimental analysis with British respondents

28. Challenges to addressing non-CO2 greenhouse gases in China’s long-term climate strategy

29. Economic and environmental effects of a CO2 tax in Latin American countries

30. The welfare effects of energy price changes due to energy market reform in Mexico

31. Narrative matters for sustainability: the transformative role of storytelling in realizing 1.5°C futures

32. Reconstructed and Projected U.S. Residential Natural Gas Consumption During 1896-2043

33. Technical skills, disinterest and non-functional regulation: Barriers to building energy efficiency in Finland viewed by energy service companies

34. Trade-offs and synergies between universal electricity access and climate change mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa

35. Seasonal fuel consumption, stoves, and end-uses in rural households of the far-western development region of Nepal

36. Discussion on the effectiveness of cement replacement for carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction in concrete

37. Quantifying drivers of variability in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of consumer products—a case study on laundry washing in Europe

38. Climate engineering and the ocean: effects on biogeochemistry and primary production

39. Cleaning up nitrogen pollution may reduce future carbon sinks

Climate change

40. Will half a degree make a difference? Robust projections of indices of mean and extreme climate in Europe under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C global warming

"Compared to 1.5°C world, a further 0.5°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature indices (mean, Tn10p and Tn900p) over more than 70% of Europe. Robust changes (more than 0.5°C) in maximum temperature affects smaller areas (usually less than 20%). There is a substantial non-linear change of fixed-threshold indices, with more than 60% increase of the number of tropical nights over southern Europe, and more than 50% decrease in the number of frost days over central Europe."

41. Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century

"We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100–250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world's population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150–750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today's most severe heat waves by 2070–2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35 °C—the theoretical limit for human tolerance—could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold."

42. Interactions between hydrological sensitivity, radiative cooling, stability and low-level cloud amount feedback

43. The impacts of oceanic deep temperature perturbations in the North Atlantic on decadal climate variability and predictability

44. Autumn Cooling of Western East Antarctica Linked to the Tropical Pacific

45. High resolution temperature datasets in Portugal from a geostatistical approach: variability and extremes

46. North Pacific Influences on Long Island Sound Temperature Variability

47. Changes in surface air temperature over China under the 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming targets

48. A new assessment of modern climate change, China—An approach based on paleo-climate

49. Changes in “hotter and wetter” events across China

50. Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

51. Intensified East Asian summer monsoon and associated precipitation mode shift under the 1.5 °C global warming target

52. Spatial distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index in Southern Russia

53. Alpine foreland running drier? Sensitivity of a drought vulnerable catchment to changes in climate, land use, and water management

54. Breakdown of the relationship between Australian summer rainfall and ENSO caused by tropical Indian Ocean SST warming

55. ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia

56. On the fragile relationship between El Niño and California rainfall

57. Relationships of Rainy Season Precipitation and Temperature to Climate Indices in California: Long-Term Variability and Extreme Events

58. Large-scale heavy precipitation over central Europe and the role of atmospheric cyclone track types

59. Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought

60. 20th-century regional climate change in the central United States attributed to agricultural intensification

61. Future projections of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon in a climate change perspective

62. Gradients of column CO2 across North America from the NOAA Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network

63. Influence of vegetation growth on the enhanced seasonality of atmospheric CO2

64. Modeling the origin of anthropogenic black carbon and its climatic effect over the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding regions

65. Non-Redfieldian Dynamics Explain Seasonal pCO2 Drawdown in the Gulf of Bothnia

66. Low pCO2 under sea-ice melt in the Canada Basin of the western Arctic Ocean

67. Satellite evidence that E. huxleyi phytoplankton blooms weaken marine carbon sinks

68. Unravel causes for the changing behavior of tropical Indian Ocean in the past few decades

69. Comparison of methodologies for cloud cover estimation in Brazil - A case study

70. Evaluation of different methods to model near-surface turbulent fluxes for a mountain glacier in the Cariboo Mountains, BC, Canada

71. Analysis of thickness changes and the associated driving factors on a debris-covered glacier in the Tienshan Mountain

72. Arctic sea-ice loss in different regions leads to contrasting Northern Hemisphere impacts

73. Impact of winter Ural blocking on Arctic sea ice: Short-time variability

74. How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent?

75. Prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the North Atlantic

76. The role of ions in new particle formation in the CLOUD chamber

Other papers

77. Tree-ring growth shows that the population decline started decades before the Black Death in Norway

"Since many of these fast-growing trees germinated in the early-14th century and the number of dated buildings drops dramatically several decades before the plague, the Black Death can hardly be the only reason for the population decline in Norway and some environmental impact must have occurred decades earlier. The dendroclimatological evidence of cold and wet summers in the years before the plague is suggestive, but historical sources also pinpoint famine due to crop failure. They also tell of farms being abandoned several decades before the plague and mention periods of heavy rainfall and famine in the early-14th century."

78. Evidence for the thermal bleaching of Porites corals from 4.0 ka BP in the northern South China Sea

"The results show that growth hiatuses and mortalities mainly occurred in summer, with high SST (31 – 34 °C) and SSS (32.8 – 38.4). In addition, abrupt negative shifts of 2 – 3‰ in δ13C were observed in almost all of the surfaces of growth hiatus and mortality, indicating adramatically reduced level of photosynthetic activity in symbiotic zooxanthellae. Because of the above reasons, we conclude that the frequently observed mortality and growth discontinuity of Porites corals from the mid-Holocene is evidence for thermal bleaching events in the past. That is, coral bleaching has occurred 3800-4200 years ago and is not a new phenomenon."

79. Biome stability in South America over the last 30 kyr: Inferences from long-term vegetation dynamics and habitat modelling

80. Creating a seamless 1 km resolution daily land surface temperature dataset for urban and surrounding areas in the conterminous United States

81. The Arctic System Reanalysis Version 2

82. Historical cropland expansion and abandonment in the continental U.S. during 1850 to 2016

83. The climate of the Common Era off the Iberian Peninsula



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