Don’t give up on your New Year’s Resolution just yet!

quit_hero

We know sticking to a New Years resolution can be an uphill battle, especially when it comes to giving up smoking. So to give everyone who’s trying to stop a little bit of motivation to keep going, we’ve put together our top 10 inspirational and informative posts. We hope this arms you with a bit more knowledge, and gives you that extra push to help you stick to your resolution.

1. De-mystifying stop smoking services

mel powell_hero

Melanie Powell hasn’t had a cigarette since 2012. Image courtesy of Melanie Powell

If you’ve ever had reservations about going to your local Stop Smoking Service, fear no more – Melanie Powell, mother of two from Wiltshire, tell us what they’re really about, and how they helped her kick the habit.

2. National No Smoking Day: don’t quit quitting

news_quit_smoking

National No Smoking Day – 9th March – is just around the corner. A few years ago, we marked the day by looking at the different methods out there to help keep you on track.

3. Constant craving: how science can help smokers to quit

prevention-smoking

Ever wondered why you crave cigarettes? Well wonder no more! In this interview, one of Cancer Research UK’s leading experts on addiction looks at what the science says.

4. National No Smoking Day: Mark’s story

Mark-Van-der-Vord3-300x201

Mark had a few tries at quitting smoking, but this time he’s sure it’s for good.

If Mark can quit you can too!

5. Roll your own cigarettes: how dangerous are they?

Which cigarettes are more harmful, roll your own or manufactured ones? The answer may surprise you.

6. National No Smoking Day: Gower’s story

nsd_gower

Gower stopped smoking and now he runs marathons, in a shoe costume no less. This could be you… minus the shoe costume, of course.

7. Lucy Briers – My father Richard’s life was cut short by tobacco

Richard and Lucy Briers

Lucy and Richard Briers

Don’t let tobacco cut your life short.

8. Smokers underestimate nicotine cravings

cigarette_hero

Underestimating cravings could be your downfall but not if you read this article.

9. Visions for the future: quitting smoking

blog_future

Take a look at the possible futuristic ways that could one day help smokers quit.

10. Healthy Lifestyles Mark Bates

Mark Bates stopped smoking after 44 years. If that’s not inspiration we don’t know what is.

And to help more smokers stop please support our campaign to make the industry cough up 1p for every cigarette sold. The extra money will help Stop Smoking Services around the country. Add your name to the petition by going to: http://ift.tt/1nLKhor.



from Cancer Research UK - Science blog http://ift.tt/1VBaqAZ
quit_hero

We know sticking to a New Years resolution can be an uphill battle, especially when it comes to giving up smoking. So to give everyone who’s trying to stop a little bit of motivation to keep going, we’ve put together our top 10 inspirational and informative posts. We hope this arms you with a bit more knowledge, and gives you that extra push to help you stick to your resolution.

1. De-mystifying stop smoking services

mel powell_hero

Melanie Powell hasn’t had a cigarette since 2012. Image courtesy of Melanie Powell

If you’ve ever had reservations about going to your local Stop Smoking Service, fear no more – Melanie Powell, mother of two from Wiltshire, tell us what they’re really about, and how they helped her kick the habit.

2. National No Smoking Day: don’t quit quitting

news_quit_smoking

National No Smoking Day – 9th March – is just around the corner. A few years ago, we marked the day by looking at the different methods out there to help keep you on track.

3. Constant craving: how science can help smokers to quit

prevention-smoking

Ever wondered why you crave cigarettes? Well wonder no more! In this interview, one of Cancer Research UK’s leading experts on addiction looks at what the science says.

4. National No Smoking Day: Mark’s story

Mark-Van-der-Vord3-300x201

Mark had a few tries at quitting smoking, but this time he’s sure it’s for good.

If Mark can quit you can too!

5. Roll your own cigarettes: how dangerous are they?

Which cigarettes are more harmful, roll your own or manufactured ones? The answer may surprise you.

6. National No Smoking Day: Gower’s story

nsd_gower

Gower stopped smoking and now he runs marathons, in a shoe costume no less. This could be you… minus the shoe costume, of course.

7. Lucy Briers – My father Richard’s life was cut short by tobacco

Richard and Lucy Briers

Lucy and Richard Briers

Don’t let tobacco cut your life short.

8. Smokers underestimate nicotine cravings

cigarette_hero

Underestimating cravings could be your downfall but not if you read this article.

9. Visions for the future: quitting smoking

blog_future

Take a look at the possible futuristic ways that could one day help smokers quit.

10. Healthy Lifestyles Mark Bates

Mark Bates stopped smoking after 44 years. If that’s not inspiration we don’t know what is.

And to help more smokers stop please support our campaign to make the industry cough up 1p for every cigarette sold. The extra money will help Stop Smoking Services around the country. Add your name to the petition by going to: http://ift.tt/1nLKhor.



from Cancer Research UK - Science blog http://ift.tt/1VBaqAZ

Sunday Chess Problem [EvolutionBlog]

Helpmates occupy a curious position in the world of chess problems. On the one hand, they seem to be the most popular form nowadays for composers. There are just so many possibilities for original content, especially when fairy pieces or conditions are added to the mix. On the other hand, they are sometimes sneered at by other composers. You sometimes encounter the attitude that direct mates and studies are serious compositions, while everything else is just candy.

Whatever. Personally, I sometimes find modern direct mates a little too dense to be enjoyable, while helpmates usually bring a smile to my face. At any rate, I happen to have the new issue of The Problemist at hand, and it includes a very impressive helpmate indeed. It is a good illustration of how much strategy can be packed into a mere two moves. This problem was composed by Jozsef Korponai in 1965. The stipulation calls for helpmate in two:



There is also a “twin” to consider, but we shall come to that in a moment.

Recall that in a helpmate, black and white cooperate to construct a position in which black is mated, in no more than the given number of moves. Also, black moves first.

From a solver’s perspective, helpmates can be fun because you can be absolutely certain you have found the solution (or possibly a cook). The position above solves by 1. Rxa7 Kg1 2. Ne4 Rd3 mate.



Now we return to the initial position, but we shift the black king to the square c4, giving us this starting position:



Again, we are asked to find helpmate in two. This time the solution is: 1. Bxc8 Kh2 2. Nb3 Bd3 mate.



As I said, that’s a lot of strategy to pack into two moves. Also, there is a perfect matching of the strategy in each part. Black starts by capturing a piece, thereby unpinning another of his pieces. Then white unpins one of his pieces by moving his king. Then the newly unpinned black piece moves to interfere with one of his pieces, then white gives mate on d3, a square that was triply guarded at the start of the problem. Lovely!

See you next week!



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1OZHZet

Helpmates occupy a curious position in the world of chess problems. On the one hand, they seem to be the most popular form nowadays for composers. There are just so many possibilities for original content, especially when fairy pieces or conditions are added to the mix. On the other hand, they are sometimes sneered at by other composers. You sometimes encounter the attitude that direct mates and studies are serious compositions, while everything else is just candy.

Whatever. Personally, I sometimes find modern direct mates a little too dense to be enjoyable, while helpmates usually bring a smile to my face. At any rate, I happen to have the new issue of The Problemist at hand, and it includes a very impressive helpmate indeed. It is a good illustration of how much strategy can be packed into a mere two moves. This problem was composed by Jozsef Korponai in 1965. The stipulation calls for helpmate in two:



There is also a “twin” to consider, but we shall come to that in a moment.

Recall that in a helpmate, black and white cooperate to construct a position in which black is mated, in no more than the given number of moves. Also, black moves first.

From a solver’s perspective, helpmates can be fun because you can be absolutely certain you have found the solution (or possibly a cook). The position above solves by 1. Rxa7 Kg1 2. Ne4 Rd3 mate.



Now we return to the initial position, but we shift the black king to the square c4, giving us this starting position:



Again, we are asked to find helpmate in two. This time the solution is: 1. Bxc8 Kh2 2. Nb3 Bd3 mate.



As I said, that’s a lot of strategy to pack into two moves. Also, there is a perfect matching of the strategy in each part. Black starts by capturing a piece, thereby unpinning another of his pieces. Then white unpins one of his pieces by moving his king. Then the newly unpinned black piece moves to interfere with one of his pieces, then white gives mate on d3, a square that was triply guarded at the start of the problem. Lovely!

See you next week!



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1OZHZet

2016 SkS Weekly Digest #5

SkS Highlights... El Niño Impacts... Toon of the Week... Quote of the Week... They Said What?... SkS in the News... SkS Spotlights... Coming Soon on SkS... Poster of the Week... SkS Week in Review... 97 Hours of Consensus...

SkS Highlights

Record hot 2015 gave us a glimpse at the future of global warming by Dana Nuccitelli (Climate Consensus - the 97%, The Guardian) garnered the highest number of comments of the articles posted on SkS during the past week. Climate scientists' open letter to the Wall Street Journal on its snow job by Emmanuel Vincent & Daniel Nethery (Climate Feedback) attracted the second highest number.

El Niño Impacts

Global temperatures will continue to soar over the next 12 months as rising levels of greenhouse gas emissions and El Niño combine to bring more record-breaking warmth to the planet.

According to the Met Office’s forecast for the next five years, 2016 is likely to be the warmest since records began. Then in 2017 there will be a dip as the effects of El Niño dissipate and there is some planet-wide cooling.

But after that, and for the remaining three years of the decade, the world will continue to experience even more warming. The forecast, which will be released this week, is the first such report that the Met Office has issued since it overhauled its near-term climate prediction system last year. 

Here is the weather forecast for the next five years: even hotter by Robin McKie, The Guardian, Jan 30. 2016

Toon of the Week

 2016 Toon 5

Hat tip to I Heart Climate Scientists

Quote of the Week 

Scientists who take the long view on climate change see parallels between global warming today and mass extinctions in Earth’s past: “Apart from the stupid space rock hitting the Earth, most mass extinctions were CO2-driven global warming things,” says Professor Andy Ridgwell of Bristol University in the UK.

It has been a consistent pattern throughout geological time: “If you screw with the climate enough, you have huge extinctions,” says Ridgwell.

If the world ends in 2100, we’re probably OK' by Howard Lee, Climate Consensus - the 97%, The Guardian, Jan 27, 2016

They Said What? 

Florida’s leading candidates for the Republican presidential nomination, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, have both criticized federal action to combat climate change, with Rubio warning it would “destroy” the US economy and Bush predicting “someone in a garage somewhere” will solve the problem instead.

Jeb Bush pins hopes on 'someone in a garage' to tackle climate change by Oliver Milman, The Guardian, Jan 29, 2016 

SkS in the News

In his letter-to-the-editor, Warming is no Neverland fantasy, published in the Providence (RI) Jornal, Frank Leven states:

There is consensus among climatologists that global warming is human-caused, resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. This is accepted by national academies of science worldwide and the scientists of the IPCC, and also by the U.S. Department of Defense. More to the point, of the more than 12,000 peer-reviewed abstracts of articles on global warming that were published between 1991 and 2011, 97 percent of their climatologist authors agreed that it is human-caused. This 97 percent result was peer-review published by John Cook and collaborators; Cook, by the way, never stated that his results were incorrect, though this false claim was made. In fact, a re-analysis upheld his results.  

Coming Soon on SkS

  • Fox News Republican debate moderators asked a climate question! (Dana)
  • “The Blob” Disrupts What We Think We Know About Climate Change, Oceans Scientist Says (Judith Lavoie)
  • Guest Post (John Abraham)
  • Industrial-era ocean heat uptake has doubled since 1997 (Rob Painting)
  • Analysis: How much did El Niño boost global temperature in 2015? (Roz Pidcock)
  • 2016 SkS Weekly News Roundup #6 (John Hartz)
  • 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #6 (John Hartz)

Poster of the Week

 2016 Poster 5

SkS Week in Review 

97 Hours of Consensus: Josh Willis

97 Hours: Josh Willis

 

Josh Willis' bio page

Quote provided by email



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/1NJr2AX

SkS Highlights... El Niño Impacts... Toon of the Week... Quote of the Week... They Said What?... SkS in the News... SkS Spotlights... Coming Soon on SkS... Poster of the Week... SkS Week in Review... 97 Hours of Consensus...

SkS Highlights

Record hot 2015 gave us a glimpse at the future of global warming by Dana Nuccitelli (Climate Consensus - the 97%, The Guardian) garnered the highest number of comments of the articles posted on SkS during the past week. Climate scientists' open letter to the Wall Street Journal on its snow job by Emmanuel Vincent & Daniel Nethery (Climate Feedback) attracted the second highest number.

El Niño Impacts

Global temperatures will continue to soar over the next 12 months as rising levels of greenhouse gas emissions and El Niño combine to bring more record-breaking warmth to the planet.

According to the Met Office’s forecast for the next five years, 2016 is likely to be the warmest since records began. Then in 2017 there will be a dip as the effects of El Niño dissipate and there is some planet-wide cooling.

But after that, and for the remaining three years of the decade, the world will continue to experience even more warming. The forecast, which will be released this week, is the first such report that the Met Office has issued since it overhauled its near-term climate prediction system last year. 

Here is the weather forecast for the next five years: even hotter by Robin McKie, The Guardian, Jan 30. 2016

Toon of the Week

 2016 Toon 5

Hat tip to I Heart Climate Scientists

Quote of the Week 

Scientists who take the long view on climate change see parallels between global warming today and mass extinctions in Earth’s past: “Apart from the stupid space rock hitting the Earth, most mass extinctions were CO2-driven global warming things,” says Professor Andy Ridgwell of Bristol University in the UK.

It has been a consistent pattern throughout geological time: “If you screw with the climate enough, you have huge extinctions,” says Ridgwell.

If the world ends in 2100, we’re probably OK' by Howard Lee, Climate Consensus - the 97%, The Guardian, Jan 27, 2016

They Said What? 

Florida’s leading candidates for the Republican presidential nomination, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, have both criticized federal action to combat climate change, with Rubio warning it would “destroy” the US economy and Bush predicting “someone in a garage somewhere” will solve the problem instead.

Jeb Bush pins hopes on 'someone in a garage' to tackle climate change by Oliver Milman, The Guardian, Jan 29, 2016 

SkS in the News

In his letter-to-the-editor, Warming is no Neverland fantasy, published in the Providence (RI) Jornal, Frank Leven states:

There is consensus among climatologists that global warming is human-caused, resulting from the burning of fossil fuels. This is accepted by national academies of science worldwide and the scientists of the IPCC, and also by the U.S. Department of Defense. More to the point, of the more than 12,000 peer-reviewed abstracts of articles on global warming that were published between 1991 and 2011, 97 percent of their climatologist authors agreed that it is human-caused. This 97 percent result was peer-review published by John Cook and collaborators; Cook, by the way, never stated that his results were incorrect, though this false claim was made. In fact, a re-analysis upheld his results.  

Coming Soon on SkS

  • Fox News Republican debate moderators asked a climate question! (Dana)
  • “The Blob” Disrupts What We Think We Know About Climate Change, Oceans Scientist Says (Judith Lavoie)
  • Guest Post (John Abraham)
  • Industrial-era ocean heat uptake has doubled since 1997 (Rob Painting)
  • Analysis: How much did El Niño boost global temperature in 2015? (Roz Pidcock)
  • 2016 SkS Weekly News Roundup #6 (John Hartz)
  • 2016 SkS Weekly Digest #6 (John Hartz)

Poster of the Week

 2016 Poster 5

SkS Week in Review 

97 Hours of Consensus: Josh Willis

97 Hours: Josh Willis

 

Josh Willis' bio page

Quote provided by email



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/1NJr2AX

142-150/366: On-Deadline Catchup [Uncertain Principles]

I’ve been neglecting the photo-a-day thing for the last week-and-a-bit, but for a good reason: I had a deadline of, well, today, to finish a chapter I was asked to contribute to an academic book. And while I fully realize that actually hitting that deadline is not typical academic behavior, I have A Thing about that, and was going to make damn sure I finished by the end of the month, as I had promised. So a lot of stuff got neglected, to the point where there were a few days in that stretch where I didn’t take any pictures at all.

So, you get another catch-up post. I owe nine photos, but I have twelve good ones from this stretch, though a few of those are paired. So I’ll somewhat arbitrarily assign numbers to these, and saw that I’m all caught up…

142/366: Carrots

Pictures of carrots. Top by The Pip, bottom by SteelyKid.

Pictures of carrots. Top by The Pip, bottom by SteelyKid.

The Pip’s favorite restaurant is Applebee’s, God help us, and one of his favorite activities there is using the little at-table tablet things to draw pictures. He almost inevitably decides to draw a carrot, because reasons, and then insists I take a picture of his drawing. And then SteelyKid has to get a piece of that action, too.

So here are some carrot drawings.

143/366: Parkour Kids

We went to a couple of home basketball games over on campus during this stretch, and the kids have discovered the joy of going outside on the patio right off the lobby and doing crazy things. Here’s SteelyKid showing off her frightening agility:

SteelyKid bouncing off a wall.

SteelyKid bouncing off a wall.

The Pip doesn’t quite have the same grace:

The Pip trying to kick off a wall.

The Pip trying to kick off a wall.

144/366: Woodpecker

I think I already posted one photo of a woodpecker to this, but here’s another:

Woodpecker on the bird feeder.

Woodpecker on the bird feeder.

145/366: Mystery Birds

One day we suddenly had a big-ass flock of these quail-ish birds all over our yard:

Quail-like birds on the front lawn.

Quail-like birds on the front lawn.

I’m not sure what these are, but when I posted a different image of them to Twitter, the most common guess was starlings, so, probably starlings. I guess.

146/366: Sunrise Bus

Clouds at sunrise, with the bus picking up the kid across the street.

Clouds at sunrise, with the bus picking up the kid across the street.

The bus that picks up the kid across the street (who goes to one of the other elementary schools in the district, as we live in a “flex zone” that can feed two of the five, as needed to keep enrollments balanced) arrives a bit earlier than SteelyKid’s which coincided nicely with pretty sunrise colors. This is actually facing west– the sunrise is behind me, but it’s impossible to get a good shot of the sky in that direction.

147/366 Hoops Action

As I said above, there were two basketball games in this stretch. I got some decent action shots at the second:

Opening tip of the women's basketball game.

Opening tip of the women’s basketball game.

Union's Amy Fisher drives in for a lay-up.

Union’s Amy Fisher drives in for a lay-up.

Shortly after the second of these, SteelyKid slipped while climbing up the bleachers and face-planted, scraping up her upper lip. This was not one of the highlights of our week…

148/366: Reading Pip

I try to limit the number of cute-kid photos in these, but they’re so darn cute

The Pip studying his Lego superhero book with Kate.

The Pip studying his Lego superhero book with Kate.

149/366: Fort Steelypips

SteelyKid has been obsessed with building forts of late. Here’s the latest of them:

A particularly large blanket fort in the living room.

A particularly large blanket fort in the living room.

I crawled inside this one, and made an attempt to capture the inside:

Interior of the giant blanket fort.

Interior of the giant blanket fort.

150/366: Secret Message

We had a big flurry of “secret message” writing yesterday, using a spy kit that SteelyKid got for… Christmas? Her birthday? I don’t remember; we’ve had it for a while. This involved writing in one color, then scribbling over it with red, which vanishes when viewed through a red plastic filter that came with the kit. She and I did a bunch of experimenting to find crayon combinations that worked well, and here’s one of the better attempts:

Test of the "secret message" kit; in normal light at the top, through the red filter on the bottom.

Test of the “secret message” kit; in normal light at the top, through the red filter on the bottom.

And that catches us up through yesterday, assuming I’ve counted days correctly. And even if I haven’t, it ought to be enough pictures to prove a point of some sort. My book chapter will get sent out this afternoon, after which I’ll be a little calmer, and expect to resume more regular blogging.



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1P5AccL

I’ve been neglecting the photo-a-day thing for the last week-and-a-bit, but for a good reason: I had a deadline of, well, today, to finish a chapter I was asked to contribute to an academic book. And while I fully realize that actually hitting that deadline is not typical academic behavior, I have A Thing about that, and was going to make damn sure I finished by the end of the month, as I had promised. So a lot of stuff got neglected, to the point where there were a few days in that stretch where I didn’t take any pictures at all.

So, you get another catch-up post. I owe nine photos, but I have twelve good ones from this stretch, though a few of those are paired. So I’ll somewhat arbitrarily assign numbers to these, and saw that I’m all caught up…

142/366: Carrots

Pictures of carrots. Top by The Pip, bottom by SteelyKid.

Pictures of carrots. Top by The Pip, bottom by SteelyKid.

The Pip’s favorite restaurant is Applebee’s, God help us, and one of his favorite activities there is using the little at-table tablet things to draw pictures. He almost inevitably decides to draw a carrot, because reasons, and then insists I take a picture of his drawing. And then SteelyKid has to get a piece of that action, too.

So here are some carrot drawings.

143/366: Parkour Kids

We went to a couple of home basketball games over on campus during this stretch, and the kids have discovered the joy of going outside on the patio right off the lobby and doing crazy things. Here’s SteelyKid showing off her frightening agility:

SteelyKid bouncing off a wall.

SteelyKid bouncing off a wall.

The Pip doesn’t quite have the same grace:

The Pip trying to kick off a wall.

The Pip trying to kick off a wall.

144/366: Woodpecker

I think I already posted one photo of a woodpecker to this, but here’s another:

Woodpecker on the bird feeder.

Woodpecker on the bird feeder.

145/366: Mystery Birds

One day we suddenly had a big-ass flock of these quail-ish birds all over our yard:

Quail-like birds on the front lawn.

Quail-like birds on the front lawn.

I’m not sure what these are, but when I posted a different image of them to Twitter, the most common guess was starlings, so, probably starlings. I guess.

146/366: Sunrise Bus

Clouds at sunrise, with the bus picking up the kid across the street.

Clouds at sunrise, with the bus picking up the kid across the street.

The bus that picks up the kid across the street (who goes to one of the other elementary schools in the district, as we live in a “flex zone” that can feed two of the five, as needed to keep enrollments balanced) arrives a bit earlier than SteelyKid’s which coincided nicely with pretty sunrise colors. This is actually facing west– the sunrise is behind me, but it’s impossible to get a good shot of the sky in that direction.

147/366 Hoops Action

As I said above, there were two basketball games in this stretch. I got some decent action shots at the second:

Opening tip of the women's basketball game.

Opening tip of the women’s basketball game.

Union's Amy Fisher drives in for a lay-up.

Union’s Amy Fisher drives in for a lay-up.

Shortly after the second of these, SteelyKid slipped while climbing up the bleachers and face-planted, scraping up her upper lip. This was not one of the highlights of our week…

148/366: Reading Pip

I try to limit the number of cute-kid photos in these, but they’re so darn cute

The Pip studying his Lego superhero book with Kate.

The Pip studying his Lego superhero book with Kate.

149/366: Fort Steelypips

SteelyKid has been obsessed with building forts of late. Here’s the latest of them:

A particularly large blanket fort in the living room.

A particularly large blanket fort in the living room.

I crawled inside this one, and made an attempt to capture the inside:

Interior of the giant blanket fort.

Interior of the giant blanket fort.

150/366: Secret Message

We had a big flurry of “secret message” writing yesterday, using a spy kit that SteelyKid got for… Christmas? Her birthday? I don’t remember; we’ve had it for a while. This involved writing in one color, then scribbling over it with red, which vanishes when viewed through a red plastic filter that came with the kit. She and I did a bunch of experimenting to find crayon combinations that worked well, and here’s one of the better attempts:

Test of the "secret message" kit; in normal light at the top, through the red filter on the bottom.

Test of the “secret message” kit; in normal light at the top, through the red filter on the bottom.

And that catches us up through yesterday, assuming I’ve counted days correctly. And even if I haven’t, it ought to be enough pictures to prove a point of some sort. My book chapter will get sent out this afternoon, after which I’ll be a little calmer, and expect to resume more regular blogging.



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1P5AccL

Those troublesome, shaky X chromosomes! [Pharyngula]

It’s easy to find lists of dumb things creationists say, and I’m familiar with that lot, but here’s a fun new time-waster: Things Anti-Vaxxers Say. Here’s a beautiful example of something I’ve rarely seen so clearly stated: they get the facts totally wrong, actually the reverse of the actual situation, but nope, that doesn’t stop them from inventing a bogus rationalization around them.

You can do your own research but it comes down to chromosomes -- the X chromosome is shaky, and boys have two of them. So they are quite literally twice as likely as girls to be adversely affected by genetic and environmental factors that can lead to the development of autism -- they are at twice the risk, purely because of their gender alone.

You can do your own research but it comes down to chromosomes — the X chromosome is shaky, and boys have two of them. So they are quite literally twice as likely as girls to be adversely affected by genetic and environmental factors that can lead to the development of autism — they are at twice the risk, purely because of their gender alone.

Uh-oh. I have 22 other chromosomes besides my sex chromosomes (I’ve actually seen them!), and…they’re all in pairs. I’m doomed.

But wait! I only have one X chromosome! I’m saved by the reduction in its pernicious influence!



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1NJfgX3

It’s easy to find lists of dumb things creationists say, and I’m familiar with that lot, but here’s a fun new time-waster: Things Anti-Vaxxers Say. Here’s a beautiful example of something I’ve rarely seen so clearly stated: they get the facts totally wrong, actually the reverse of the actual situation, but nope, that doesn’t stop them from inventing a bogus rationalization around them.

You can do your own research but it comes down to chromosomes -- the X chromosome is shaky, and boys have two of them. So they are quite literally twice as likely as girls to be adversely affected by genetic and environmental factors that can lead to the development of autism -- they are at twice the risk, purely because of their gender alone.

You can do your own research but it comes down to chromosomes — the X chromosome is shaky, and boys have two of them. So they are quite literally twice as likely as girls to be adversely affected by genetic and environmental factors that can lead to the development of autism — they are at twice the risk, purely because of their gender alone.

Uh-oh. I have 22 other chromosomes besides my sex chromosomes (I’ve actually seen them!), and…they’re all in pairs. I’m doomed.

But wait! I only have one X chromosome! I’m saved by the reduction in its pernicious influence!



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1NJfgX3

This is not how you do science [Pharyngula]

There is a myth about how science progresses: great men have a eureka moment, and rush in to the lab to do the definitive experiment, often bravely and with the opposition of the Science Establishment, and single-handedly revolutionize a discipline. It’s nonsense. I can’t think of a single example of that kind of work that has gotten anywhere — the closest might be Isaac Newton, who developed some great ideas working privately at his home in Woolsthorpe, but even he was tightly connected to a community of fellow scientists. Science is very much a communal and communicative endeavor, and is built “on the shoulders of giants.”

So I do not approve of the work of Phil Kennedy, which looks like a lot of hare-brained Frankensteinian self-indulgence. Kennedy could not get approval for his experiments in implanting electrodes in human brains — I wonder why? — so he charged off to the Caribbean and had bits of wire and glass stuck deep into his own brain. It did not go well.

The brain surgery lasted 11 and a half hours, beginning on the afternoon of June 21, 2014, and stretching into the Caribbean predawn of the next day. In the afternoon, after the anesthesia had worn off, the neurosurgeon came in, removed his wire-frame glasses, and held them up for his bandaged patient to examine. “What are these called?” he asked.

Phil Kennedy stared at the glasses for a moment. Then his gaze drifted up to the ceiling and over to the television. “Uh … uh … ai … aiee,” he stammered after a while, “… aiee … aiee … aiee.”

Don’t worry, he got better — his deficits were caused by post-operative swelling of his brain, and that eventually diminished, and he started recording data off his electrode.

When Kennedy finally did present the data that he’d gathered from himself—first at an Emory University symposium last May and then at the Society for Neuroscience conference in October—some of his colleagues were tentatively supportive. By taking on the risk himself, by working alone and out-of-pocket, Kennedy managed to create a sui generis record of language in the brain, Chang says: “It’s a very precious set of data, whether or not it will ultimately hold the secret for a speech prosthetic. It’s truly an extraordinary event.” Other colleagues found the story thrilling, even if they were somewhat baffled: In a field that is constantly hitting up against ethical roadblocks, this man they’d known for years, and always liked, had made a bold and unexpected bid to force brain research to its destiny. Still other scientists were simply aghast. “Some thought I was brave, some thought I was crazy,” Kennedy says.

I’d score him as foolhardy and arrogant. I don’t even know what one could do with the data — no one is going to replicate it, there’s nothing to test, and future technologies will probably make Kennedy’s mad adventure irrelevant and unnecessary to replicate. This is a dead end, and risking scrambling your brain is not a smart gamble.

Further, this idea that one has to work around “ethical roadblocks” is troubling. There are “ethical roadblocks” to murdering someone; we don’t generally consider it a virtue if someone works out a clever way to kill a person that isn’t prosecutable under the law. We are talking about brain surgeries on human subjects — damn right there better be ethical limitations imposed on that. The only way around that is to demonstrate that the proposed procedures are safe and pose negligible risk, with incremental experimental work in animals and with duplication and verification by multiple investigators. Transhumanists might dream of some amazing Prigogenic leap that abruptly makes their cyborg aspirations reality, but it’s not going to happen that way.

I also shouldn’t want scientists to be encouraged to come up with ways to get around ethics. What next, is informed consent getting in your way, so you need to come up with a cunning plan to avoid it?



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1Skd40p

There is a myth about how science progresses: great men have a eureka moment, and rush in to the lab to do the definitive experiment, often bravely and with the opposition of the Science Establishment, and single-handedly revolutionize a discipline. It’s nonsense. I can’t think of a single example of that kind of work that has gotten anywhere — the closest might be Isaac Newton, who developed some great ideas working privately at his home in Woolsthorpe, but even he was tightly connected to a community of fellow scientists. Science is very much a communal and communicative endeavor, and is built “on the shoulders of giants.”

So I do not approve of the work of Phil Kennedy, which looks like a lot of hare-brained Frankensteinian self-indulgence. Kennedy could not get approval for his experiments in implanting electrodes in human brains — I wonder why? — so he charged off to the Caribbean and had bits of wire and glass stuck deep into his own brain. It did not go well.

The brain surgery lasted 11 and a half hours, beginning on the afternoon of June 21, 2014, and stretching into the Caribbean predawn of the next day. In the afternoon, after the anesthesia had worn off, the neurosurgeon came in, removed his wire-frame glasses, and held them up for his bandaged patient to examine. “What are these called?” he asked.

Phil Kennedy stared at the glasses for a moment. Then his gaze drifted up to the ceiling and over to the television. “Uh … uh … ai … aiee,” he stammered after a while, “… aiee … aiee … aiee.”

Don’t worry, he got better — his deficits were caused by post-operative swelling of his brain, and that eventually diminished, and he started recording data off his electrode.

When Kennedy finally did present the data that he’d gathered from himself—first at an Emory University symposium last May and then at the Society for Neuroscience conference in October—some of his colleagues were tentatively supportive. By taking on the risk himself, by working alone and out-of-pocket, Kennedy managed to create a sui generis record of language in the brain, Chang says: “It’s a very precious set of data, whether or not it will ultimately hold the secret for a speech prosthetic. It’s truly an extraordinary event.” Other colleagues found the story thrilling, even if they were somewhat baffled: In a field that is constantly hitting up against ethical roadblocks, this man they’d known for years, and always liked, had made a bold and unexpected bid to force brain research to its destiny. Still other scientists were simply aghast. “Some thought I was brave, some thought I was crazy,” Kennedy says.

I’d score him as foolhardy and arrogant. I don’t even know what one could do with the data — no one is going to replicate it, there’s nothing to test, and future technologies will probably make Kennedy’s mad adventure irrelevant and unnecessary to replicate. This is a dead end, and risking scrambling your brain is not a smart gamble.

Further, this idea that one has to work around “ethical roadblocks” is troubling. There are “ethical roadblocks” to murdering someone; we don’t generally consider it a virtue if someone works out a clever way to kill a person that isn’t prosecutable under the law. We are talking about brain surgeries on human subjects — damn right there better be ethical limitations imposed on that. The only way around that is to demonstrate that the proposed procedures are safe and pose negligible risk, with incremental experimental work in animals and with duplication and verification by multiple investigators. Transhumanists might dream of some amazing Prigogenic leap that abruptly makes their cyborg aspirations reality, but it’s not going to happen that way.

I also shouldn’t want scientists to be encouraged to come up with ways to get around ethics. What next, is informed consent getting in your way, so you need to come up with a cunning plan to avoid it?



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1Skd40p

Moon and Mars before dawn February 1

Tomorrow morning – February 1, 2016 – the moon will be near its last quarter phase as it and Mars rise over the eastern horizon an hour or so after the midnight hour at mid-northern latitudes. If you’re not a night owl, you’ll be better off to view the moon and Mars before dawn Monday.

Our sky chart at top specifically applies to mid-northern North American latitudes.

Nonetheless – no matter where you are on Earth – you should have little trouble using the moon to locate Mars in your own sky before dawn on February 1. Look first for the moon, and the nearby bright starlike object will be the red planet Mars.

And, by the way, Monday morning is an awesome time to identify Mars for another reason. This planet has been inconspicuous in our sky for the past year or more, because Earth has been following behind it in the race of the planets around the sun. But – this coming May 22 – we’ll pass between Mars and the sun. Between now and then, you’ll see Mars get much redder and much brighter in our sky.

View larger | Mikhail Chubarets in the Ukraine made this chart. It shows the view of Mars through a telescope in 2016. We pass between Mars and the sun on May 22. We won't see Mars as a disk like this with the eye alone. But, between the start of 2016 and May, the dot of light that is Mars will grow dramatically brighter and redder in our night sky. Watch for it!

View larger | Mikhail Chubarets in the Ukraine made this chart. It shows the view of Mars through a telescope in 2016. We pass between Mars and the sun on May 22. We won’t see Mars as a disk like this with the eye alone. But, between the start of 2016 and May, the dot of light that is Mars will grow dramatically brighter and redder in our night sky. Watch for it!

If you look closely, you might also spot a fainter but visible light close to Mars. It’s Zubenelgenubi, the alpha star in the constellation Libra the Scales.

If you have difficulty making out the star Zubenelgenubi with the eye alone, try your luck with binoculars. Mars and Zubenelgenubi will occupy the same binocular field of view for at least another week. What’s more, binoculars show Zubenelgenubi to be a double star.

While taking in the wonder of the predawn sky, take time to view the other four visible planets. Brilliant Jupiter shines to the west of the moon and Mars, while the planets Saturn, Venus and Mercury lurk to the lower east of the moon and Mars. The moon passed Jupiter last week, and will be passing the other planets in the coming days.

Click here to find out more about the grand parade of morning planets.

View larger. For illustrative purposes, the moon appears larger than it does in the real sky. Mid-northern latitudes in Europe and Asia will see the moon somewhat offset toward the previous date. The green line on the above chart depicts the ecliptic - Earth's orbital plane projected onto the constellations of the Zodiac.

View larger. | Keep watching in early February, as the moon sweeps past Saturn, Venus and Mercury. The green line represents the ecliptic – path of the sun, moon and planets across the sky’s dome.

Beginning around January 20 - through mid-February - you can see five bright planets at once in the predawn sky.

View larger. | Beginning around January 20 – through mid-February – you can see five bright planets at once in the predawn sky.

See all five visible planets simultaneously

Bottom line: Before dawn on February 1, 2016, look for the moon and Mars close together on the sky’s dome.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/200Ik3x

Tomorrow morning – February 1, 2016 – the moon will be near its last quarter phase as it and Mars rise over the eastern horizon an hour or so after the midnight hour at mid-northern latitudes. If you’re not a night owl, you’ll be better off to view the moon and Mars before dawn Monday.

Our sky chart at top specifically applies to mid-northern North American latitudes.

Nonetheless – no matter where you are on Earth – you should have little trouble using the moon to locate Mars in your own sky before dawn on February 1. Look first for the moon, and the nearby bright starlike object will be the red planet Mars.

And, by the way, Monday morning is an awesome time to identify Mars for another reason. This planet has been inconspicuous in our sky for the past year or more, because Earth has been following behind it in the race of the planets around the sun. But – this coming May 22 – we’ll pass between Mars and the sun. Between now and then, you’ll see Mars get much redder and much brighter in our sky.

View larger | Mikhail Chubarets in the Ukraine made this chart. It shows the view of Mars through a telescope in 2016. We pass between Mars and the sun on May 22. We won't see Mars as a disk like this with the eye alone. But, between the start of 2016 and May, the dot of light that is Mars will grow dramatically brighter and redder in our night sky. Watch for it!

View larger | Mikhail Chubarets in the Ukraine made this chart. It shows the view of Mars through a telescope in 2016. We pass between Mars and the sun on May 22. We won’t see Mars as a disk like this with the eye alone. But, between the start of 2016 and May, the dot of light that is Mars will grow dramatically brighter and redder in our night sky. Watch for it!

If you look closely, you might also spot a fainter but visible light close to Mars. It’s Zubenelgenubi, the alpha star in the constellation Libra the Scales.

If you have difficulty making out the star Zubenelgenubi with the eye alone, try your luck with binoculars. Mars and Zubenelgenubi will occupy the same binocular field of view for at least another week. What’s more, binoculars show Zubenelgenubi to be a double star.

While taking in the wonder of the predawn sky, take time to view the other four visible planets. Brilliant Jupiter shines to the west of the moon and Mars, while the planets Saturn, Venus and Mercury lurk to the lower east of the moon and Mars. The moon passed Jupiter last week, and will be passing the other planets in the coming days.

Click here to find out more about the grand parade of morning planets.

View larger. For illustrative purposes, the moon appears larger than it does in the real sky. Mid-northern latitudes in Europe and Asia will see the moon somewhat offset toward the previous date. The green line on the above chart depicts the ecliptic - Earth's orbital plane projected onto the constellations of the Zodiac.

View larger. | Keep watching in early February, as the moon sweeps past Saturn, Venus and Mercury. The green line represents the ecliptic – path of the sun, moon and planets across the sky’s dome.

Beginning around January 20 - through mid-February - you can see five bright planets at once in the predawn sky.

View larger. | Beginning around January 20 – through mid-February – you can see five bright planets at once in the predawn sky.

See all five visible planets simultaneously

Bottom line: Before dawn on February 1, 2016, look for the moon and Mars close together on the sky’s dome.



from EarthSky http://ift.tt/200Ik3x

Antarctica: Dry Valleys [World's Fair]

On the next leg of our NSF Antarctic Artists & Writers project we flew to the Antarctic Dry Valleys from McMurdo. It is almost an hour helicopter ride across the ice shelf, and we hopped from site to site all day: landing at Lake Hoare for a moment to drop off someone and pick up Zach Sudman, a stream hydrologist who we spent most of the day with. We flew with Zach another 10 minutes to Lawson Stream – yes a flowing stream (from summer glacier melt) in the Taylor Valley. We video photographed Zach Sudman using surveying equipment to measure the height of the lake and the stream.
Here is a photo of Mike Johnson from the Stream Team research group at Lake Bonny camp checking a weather station.

LakeHoareHelo

The helicopter in the background took us back to Lake Hoare camp after spending about an hour at Lake Bonny so Mike and Zach could get their lake level measurements. Here is a picture of Mike and Zach at their Lawson Stream equipment box.

LawsonStream2

The box is located about 100-200 yards from where the helicopter lands and contains monitoring equipment that is connected to probes in the stream that measure stream temperature, flow, and depth. The box has been anchored in place there and working for about a decade as part of the gigantic LTER (Long Term Ecological Research) project in Antarctica, which involves many different researchers studying Antarctic ecology across the spectrum. Lawson Stream is not really visible in the above photo, but is about 3 yards to the other side of the box. The landscape shown is typical for the Dry Valleys – lots of “dry valley” punctuated by glaciers (small glaciers, but each has their own name – and a small glacier is still often bigger than an airport).
Here is a photo of me taking a photo near Bohner Stream.

LawsonStream1

This photo really shows the Martian like landscape of the Dry Valleys. While the Atacama desert in Chile has also long been used as an Earth-analog for Mars, now it’s seem more the Antarctic Dry Valleys, as the cold makes it more analogous to Mars. If it looks isolated and lonely in this picture, it feels 10 times more isolated while there.  Oddly, it doesn’t feel lonely, but that seems to be because your mind makes an instantaneous strong connection to the people you are with on site.  This is made easier by the fact that nearly everyone working at McMurdo is extraordinarily nice and interactive.  At this site, the Stream Team finished their work early and called for a helicopter pickup. Trish had already headed up the hill to take some pictures when we got a call on the radio that the helicopter was landing immediately. Zach, Mike, me and Forrest (another Stream Team member) had to run full speed up a 100 yard sand hill to get to the helicopter. If you’ve ever run up a sand dune you know how fun that is – especially in big boots and with each of us carrying about 30 pounds of equipment. The helicopter pilots do not like waiting and want you to be in the landing area and waiting when they are still several minutes out. Helicopter landings in the Dry Valleys also consist of taking a sand and dirt shower. Zach and his colleagues showed us their technique for kneeling facing away from the helicopter as it lands (or as it leaves after making a drop off) with your jacket hood up as a good way to avoid a rock blasted face. More soon…



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1WTS4ww

On the next leg of our NSF Antarctic Artists & Writers project we flew to the Antarctic Dry Valleys from McMurdo. It is almost an hour helicopter ride across the ice shelf, and we hopped from site to site all day: landing at Lake Hoare for a moment to drop off someone and pick up Zach Sudman, a stream hydrologist who we spent most of the day with. We flew with Zach another 10 minutes to Lawson Stream – yes a flowing stream (from summer glacier melt) in the Taylor Valley. We video photographed Zach Sudman using surveying equipment to measure the height of the lake and the stream.
Here is a photo of Mike Johnson from the Stream Team research group at Lake Bonny camp checking a weather station.

LakeHoareHelo

The helicopter in the background took us back to Lake Hoare camp after spending about an hour at Lake Bonny so Mike and Zach could get their lake level measurements. Here is a picture of Mike and Zach at their Lawson Stream equipment box.

LawsonStream2

The box is located about 100-200 yards from where the helicopter lands and contains monitoring equipment that is connected to probes in the stream that measure stream temperature, flow, and depth. The box has been anchored in place there and working for about a decade as part of the gigantic LTER (Long Term Ecological Research) project in Antarctica, which involves many different researchers studying Antarctic ecology across the spectrum. Lawson Stream is not really visible in the above photo, but is about 3 yards to the other side of the box. The landscape shown is typical for the Dry Valleys – lots of “dry valley” punctuated by glaciers (small glaciers, but each has their own name – and a small glacier is still often bigger than an airport).
Here is a photo of me taking a photo near Bohner Stream.

LawsonStream1

This photo really shows the Martian like landscape of the Dry Valleys. While the Atacama desert in Chile has also long been used as an Earth-analog for Mars, now it’s seem more the Antarctic Dry Valleys, as the cold makes it more analogous to Mars. If it looks isolated and lonely in this picture, it feels 10 times more isolated while there.  Oddly, it doesn’t feel lonely, but that seems to be because your mind makes an instantaneous strong connection to the people you are with on site.  This is made easier by the fact that nearly everyone working at McMurdo is extraordinarily nice and interactive.  At this site, the Stream Team finished their work early and called for a helicopter pickup. Trish had already headed up the hill to take some pictures when we got a call on the radio that the helicopter was landing immediately. Zach, Mike, me and Forrest (another Stream Team member) had to run full speed up a 100 yard sand hill to get to the helicopter. If you’ve ever run up a sand dune you know how fun that is – especially in big boots and with each of us carrying about 30 pounds of equipment. The helicopter pilots do not like waiting and want you to be in the landing area and waiting when they are still several minutes out. Helicopter landings in the Dry Valleys also consist of taking a sand and dirt shower. Zach and his colleagues showed us their technique for kneeling facing away from the helicopter as it lands (or as it leaves after making a drop off) with your jacket hood up as a good way to avoid a rock blasted face. More soon…



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1WTS4ww

Genetics and Food Security [Greg Laden's Blog]

There is a food crisis sneaking up on us right now. A lot of them, actually. A lot of little one, some big ones. There are always places in the world where food has become scarce for at time, and people starve or move. You’ve heard of the “”Syrian refugee crisis,” and the often extreme reactions to it in Europe and among some in the US. That started out as a food crisis, brought on by human pollution induced global warming in an already arid agricultural zone.

Nearly similar levels of climate change related pressure on agricultural systems elsewhere has led to very different outcomes, sometimes more adaptive outcomes that won’t (at least for now) lead to major geopolitical catastrophes as we have now in the Levant and elsewhere in West Asia. What’s the difference? The difference is how agriculture is done.

Are GMOs a solution? Are GMOs safe, and can the produce a small or medium size revolution in crop productivity? What about upgrading traditional agriculture to “industrial agriculture”?

And speaking of GMOs, what is the latest in GMO research? How should GMOs be regulated, by the method they are produced, or by the novel or altered traits they have? How do we communicate about GMO research and GMO crops? What about labeling?

These and many other questions are addressed ad Mike Haubrich, me, and Anastasia Bodnar talk about “Genetics and Food Security” on the latest installment of the Ikonokast Podcast. GO HERE to listen to the podcast. Also, if you go there, you can see a picture of Anastasia holding her latest GMO product, a corn plant that can see and talk!

Also, Iknokast has a Facebook Group. Please click here to go and joint it!

And, if you have not yet listened to our first podcast, with author and science advocate Shawn Otto, click here to catch up!



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1PpmKUR

There is a food crisis sneaking up on us right now. A lot of them, actually. A lot of little one, some big ones. There are always places in the world where food has become scarce for at time, and people starve or move. You’ve heard of the “”Syrian refugee crisis,” and the often extreme reactions to it in Europe and among some in the US. That started out as a food crisis, brought on by human pollution induced global warming in an already arid agricultural zone.

Nearly similar levels of climate change related pressure on agricultural systems elsewhere has led to very different outcomes, sometimes more adaptive outcomes that won’t (at least for now) lead to major geopolitical catastrophes as we have now in the Levant and elsewhere in West Asia. What’s the difference? The difference is how agriculture is done.

Are GMOs a solution? Are GMOs safe, and can the produce a small or medium size revolution in crop productivity? What about upgrading traditional agriculture to “industrial agriculture”?

And speaking of GMOs, what is the latest in GMO research? How should GMOs be regulated, by the method they are produced, or by the novel or altered traits they have? How do we communicate about GMO research and GMO crops? What about labeling?

These and many other questions are addressed ad Mike Haubrich, me, and Anastasia Bodnar talk about “Genetics and Food Security” on the latest installment of the Ikonokast Podcast. GO HERE to listen to the podcast. Also, if you go there, you can see a picture of Anastasia holding her latest GMO product, a corn plant that can see and talk!

Also, Iknokast has a Facebook Group. Please click here to go and joint it!

And, if you have not yet listened to our first podcast, with author and science advocate Shawn Otto, click here to catch up!



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1PpmKUR

'If the world ends in 2100, we’re probably OK'

There’s a myopia in the climate discourse today.

“Everyone is focused on what happens by 2100. But that’s only 2 generations from today. It’s like: If the world ends in 2100 we’re probably OK!” says Professor Richard Zeebe of the University of Hawai’i. “But It’s very clear that over a longer timescale there will be much bigger changes.”

If the next century seems impossibly far off, bear in mind that if you have a young child now, we’re talking about the world her or his grandchildren will be trying to raise their kids in.

Scientists who take the long view on climate change see parallels between global warming today and mass extinctions in Earth’s past: “Apart from the stupid space rock hitting the Earth, most mass extinctions were CO2-driven global warming things,” says Professor Andy Ridgwell of Bristol University in the UK.

It has been a consistent pattern throughout geological time: “If you screw with the climate enough, you have huge extinctions,” says Ridgwell.

So much of what you read and hear about climate change is heavily based on instrument records that only go back 160 years or so. But Richard Zeebe and Andy Ridgwell are among a few scientists who look millions of years into Earth’s past to learn how the Earth responded to big additions of CO2 into the atmosphere before. I had the opportunity to chat with each of them about their work during the American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco at the end of last year.

Beyond the ice ages

It’s true that scientists can learn about the ice age climate going back 800,000 years from bubbles of air trapped in ancient ice drilled from Greenland and Antarctica. They reveal many swings from warm to cold to warm again, in a low-CO2 world mostly cooler than today. “We went from very cold and low sea level to a mild climate with normal sea level,” says Ridgwell. But it was a very different scenario than today - those cycles were mainly driven by Earth’s wobbles as it circles the Sun, and those same orbital wobbles mean we should be cooling, not warming, today.

So both Ridgwell and Zeebe have been studying the best equivalent to modern climate change they have found so far, a relatively rapid global warming event that occurred 56 million years ago, called the “Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,” mercifully shortened to “PETM.” For Ridgwell, it’s a better analog for the future: 

This is why I like the PETM, at least it’s a warming event. It had a peak global warming of about 5º or 6ºC, which is a little bit beyond the end-of-the-century worst case scenario.

For Zeebe it’s also about data quality: 

We are focusing on the PETM is because we have relatively good sediment records. We are able to constrain timescales and ages relatively accurately. If you go further back in time, these constrains become very, very difficult.

Unprecedented in 66 million years

Scientists use a wide variety of data from rocks exposed and drilled at various locations around the globe. They look at geology, fossils, and the chemical makeup of sediments, particularly chemical isotopes - different atoms of the same element that differ minutely in their mass. As Zeebe says,

We have two isotope systems that we can look at. One of those are oxygen isotopes and they are essentially a thermometer, they tell us about climate change. And the other isotope system we’re looking at is carbon isotopes and they tell us something about carbon release.

Zeebe and colleagues compared isotope samples with computer models of the climate system. They stretched the models’ carbon emission timescale until they got a match with the isotope measurements. This showed that the carbon emissions which caused the PETM took about 4,000 years - remarkably similar to an estimate of about 3,000 years just published by Ridgwell and his colleague Sandy Kirtland Turner. They used a completely different approach from Zeebe, focusing on the differences in the carbon signal between marine and land sediments.

Narrowing the PETM emissions timeframe to around 3,000 to 4,000 years shows that, like today, the global warming back then was caused by geologically-fast carbon emissions. But our emissions have taken just a couple of centuries so, as Zeebe points out: 

What we’re doing with our emissions is unprecedented in the past 66 million years!

Even if the PETM isn’t a perfect equivalent of today’s climate (it was slower, and it happened in a world that was already warmer than today), it still tells us how the planet reacts to a sharp excess of carbon in the atmosphere. For example, the2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report says we can expect a warming of between 1.5°C and 4.5°C if we double atmospheric CO2levels, but also acknowledges that the longer term warming (over centuries to millennia) “could be significantly higher” than that. The PETM tells us it is. Zeebe notes:

If we just try to explain the PETM with a climate sensitivity of 4.5°C, we only get maybe 60% of the warming. So my conclusion would be that long term sensitivity must be more than 4.5°C.

Mass extinctions

Ridgwell has also investigated global warming events going back deeper in geological time, including the big mass extinction events like the end-Permian and the end-Triassic, as well as so-called “Ocean Anoxic Events” in the Cretaceous. These involved profound and long-lived environmental disruption, with symptoms quite similar to today’s climate change, such as global warming, rainfall changes, and ocean acidification.

“Overall these are relatively slow events, on timescales of tens to hundreds of thousands of years,” says Ridgwell. But recent advances in rock dating, and in tracing Earth’s magnetic field frozen into ancient lava, suggests that within those slow events there may well have been intense, rapid episodes that came closer to today’s human emission rates.

You might have very short pulses of CO2 release within them. Some of these pulses of CO2 could look like what we’re doing now in terms of amount and rate. That’s an area of active research, because the estimates of individual pulses are getting better, but the estimates of how much CO2 would be released associated with an individual pulse are still uncertain.

The change already baked in

Ridgwell is skeptical about ambitions to limit warming to 1.5°C: 

Click here to read the rest



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/1KN8kZe

There’s a myopia in the climate discourse today.

“Everyone is focused on what happens by 2100. But that’s only 2 generations from today. It’s like: If the world ends in 2100 we’re probably OK!” says Professor Richard Zeebe of the University of Hawai’i. “But It’s very clear that over a longer timescale there will be much bigger changes.”

If the next century seems impossibly far off, bear in mind that if you have a young child now, we’re talking about the world her or his grandchildren will be trying to raise their kids in.

Scientists who take the long view on climate change see parallels between global warming today and mass extinctions in Earth’s past: “Apart from the stupid space rock hitting the Earth, most mass extinctions were CO2-driven global warming things,” says Professor Andy Ridgwell of Bristol University in the UK.

It has been a consistent pattern throughout geological time: “If you screw with the climate enough, you have huge extinctions,” says Ridgwell.

So much of what you read and hear about climate change is heavily based on instrument records that only go back 160 years or so. But Richard Zeebe and Andy Ridgwell are among a few scientists who look millions of years into Earth’s past to learn how the Earth responded to big additions of CO2 into the atmosphere before. I had the opportunity to chat with each of them about their work during the American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco at the end of last year.

Beyond the ice ages

It’s true that scientists can learn about the ice age climate going back 800,000 years from bubbles of air trapped in ancient ice drilled from Greenland and Antarctica. They reveal many swings from warm to cold to warm again, in a low-CO2 world mostly cooler than today. “We went from very cold and low sea level to a mild climate with normal sea level,” says Ridgwell. But it was a very different scenario than today - those cycles were mainly driven by Earth’s wobbles as it circles the Sun, and those same orbital wobbles mean we should be cooling, not warming, today.

So both Ridgwell and Zeebe have been studying the best equivalent to modern climate change they have found so far, a relatively rapid global warming event that occurred 56 million years ago, called the “Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,” mercifully shortened to “PETM.” For Ridgwell, it’s a better analog for the future: 

This is why I like the PETM, at least it’s a warming event. It had a peak global warming of about 5º or 6ºC, which is a little bit beyond the end-of-the-century worst case scenario.

For Zeebe it’s also about data quality: 

We are focusing on the PETM is because we have relatively good sediment records. We are able to constrain timescales and ages relatively accurately. If you go further back in time, these constrains become very, very difficult.

Unprecedented in 66 million years

Scientists use a wide variety of data from rocks exposed and drilled at various locations around the globe. They look at geology, fossils, and the chemical makeup of sediments, particularly chemical isotopes - different atoms of the same element that differ minutely in their mass. As Zeebe says,

We have two isotope systems that we can look at. One of those are oxygen isotopes and they are essentially a thermometer, they tell us about climate change. And the other isotope system we’re looking at is carbon isotopes and they tell us something about carbon release.

Zeebe and colleagues compared isotope samples with computer models of the climate system. They stretched the models’ carbon emission timescale until they got a match with the isotope measurements. This showed that the carbon emissions which caused the PETM took about 4,000 years - remarkably similar to an estimate of about 3,000 years just published by Ridgwell and his colleague Sandy Kirtland Turner. They used a completely different approach from Zeebe, focusing on the differences in the carbon signal between marine and land sediments.

Narrowing the PETM emissions timeframe to around 3,000 to 4,000 years shows that, like today, the global warming back then was caused by geologically-fast carbon emissions. But our emissions have taken just a couple of centuries so, as Zeebe points out: 

What we’re doing with our emissions is unprecedented in the past 66 million years!

Even if the PETM isn’t a perfect equivalent of today’s climate (it was slower, and it happened in a world that was already warmer than today), it still tells us how the planet reacts to a sharp excess of carbon in the atmosphere. For example, the2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report says we can expect a warming of between 1.5°C and 4.5°C if we double atmospheric CO2levels, but also acknowledges that the longer term warming (over centuries to millennia) “could be significantly higher” than that. The PETM tells us it is. Zeebe notes:

If we just try to explain the PETM with a climate sensitivity of 4.5°C, we only get maybe 60% of the warming. So my conclusion would be that long term sensitivity must be more than 4.5°C.

Mass extinctions

Ridgwell has also investigated global warming events going back deeper in geological time, including the big mass extinction events like the end-Permian and the end-Triassic, as well as so-called “Ocean Anoxic Events” in the Cretaceous. These involved profound and long-lived environmental disruption, with symptoms quite similar to today’s climate change, such as global warming, rainfall changes, and ocean acidification.

“Overall these are relatively slow events, on timescales of tens to hundreds of thousands of years,” says Ridgwell. But recent advances in rock dating, and in tracing Earth’s magnetic field frozen into ancient lava, suggests that within those slow events there may well have been intense, rapid episodes that came closer to today’s human emission rates.

You might have very short pulses of CO2 release within them. Some of these pulses of CO2 could look like what we’re doing now in terms of amount and rate. That’s an area of active research, because the estimates of individual pulses are getting better, but the estimates of how much CO2 would be released associated with an individual pulse are still uncertain.

The change already baked in

Ridgwell is skeptical about ambitions to limit warming to 1.5°C: 

Click here to read the rest



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/1KN8kZe

2016 SkS Weekly News Roundup #5

A chronological listing of the news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook page during the past week.

Sun Jan 24

Mon Jan 25

Tue Jan 26

Wed Jan 27

Thu Jan 28

Fri Jan 29

Sat Jan 30



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/1KN8kZ6

A chronological listing of the news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook page during the past week.

Sun Jan 24

Mon Jan 25

Tue Jan 26

Wed Jan 27

Thu Jan 28

Fri Jan 29

Sat Jan 30



from Skeptical Science http://ift.tt/1KN8kZ6

Comments of the Week #96: from the living Universe to star-forming terror [Starts With A Bang]

“What you get by achieving your goals is not as important as what you become by achieving your goals.” -Zig Ziglar

What a week it’s been here at Starts With A Bang, where we’ve been proud to bring a number of stories to light for you. This past week, in case you missed anything, we’ve tackled:

There’s plenty in the works, including (next week) our next podcast, a live-blog event, more on the Future of Astronomy and even more science stories from the Universe. You’ve also (as always) had plenty to say, so let’s see what it all comes down to as we jump into our Comments of the Week!

Image credit: SN 1994D, High-Z Supernova Search Team, HST, NASA.

Image credit: SN 1994D, High-Z Supernova Search Team, HST, NASA.

From Omega Centauri on a story I didn’t cover: “[T]he superluminus supernova has been
much in the news. Reportedly its brightness blows the usual suspects out of the water. I’m a bit skeptical, if its some sort of
compact object or black hole thing, might the radiation pattern be highly non spherically symmetric? perhaps we are in the path of a beam?”

So this is based on this story, and this is interesting for a number of reasons, but this isn’t unique! Here’s the deal:

  • Most type Ia supernovae come from a source that’s between 1 and 3 times the mass of our Sun: not that much matter.
  • Most type II (core-collapse) supernovae are from stars between 20-40 times the mass of our Sun: a lot, but not the most.
  • The biggest supernovae are pair-instability supernovae/hypernovae, where ultra-massive stars produce matter-antimatter pairs and collapse due to the reduced pressure.
Image credit: NASA / CXC / M. Weiss.

Image credit: NASA / CXC / M. Weiss.

Supernovae like SN2006gy are thought to collapse under this mechanism, but the new supernova is even more luminous than that (although it’s more than 10 times as distant). Why? Are there collimated jets pointing at us? We don’t know, but the magnetar explanation is challenged by it. Another possibility includes the formation of quark stars, but this is one case where, to be frank, observationalists are leading the theorists. We have work to do!

Image screenshotted from Forbes.

Image screenshotted from Forbes.

From Kristofer Bergstrom on the living Universe: “I’m sorry to say I don’t access your full writings since they moved to Forbes. Forbes has a no ad-blocker policy which means users can’t use the site without exposing their browser to risk (and exposing themselves to ads). Probably not too many people are as decidedly anti-ad as I am, but I thought I should let you know there’s at least one of us that can’t access your writings since they’ve moved to Forbes.”

I seem to get these comments every week, and I don’t have a problem with it. Currently, I’m bringing hundreds of thousands of new visits to Forbes each month, which they’re very happy about. But there’s a limit to the pressure I can put on them. I continue to let them know about your frustrations (and I’m frustrated, too), and will continue to make recommendations. However, unless you have a platform for me that’s going to compensate me for all the writing I do as well as (or better) than what’s on the table, I won’t be moving. Wait the extra week if you don’t want to turn off your adblocker and then go to Medium. But I need to make a living, which I hope we all understand.

Image credit: NASA, of the aftermath of the Apollo 1 fire.

Image credit: NASA, of the aftermath of the Apollo 1 fire.

From Art on Apollo 1: “In retrospect it seems intuitively obvious that the combination of oxygen, at a raised pressure, materials that had never been flame tested in an oxygen atmosphere, and a hatch that took an extended time to open would lead to tragedy.”

Everything is easier in hindsight. The tough thing was doing something that took five confounding mistakes to lead to tragedy, but the odds of each one wasn’t as low as it should’ve been. That’s the really hard part. The really difficult thing to realize is that each new tragedy — even if it leads to policy change — will only help prevent that now-previous tragedy from happening again. How do we anticipate the next tragedy? That’s something we’re still working on.

Image credit: three shots of the challenger during its last flight, with the hydrogen leak visible.

Image credit: three shots of the challenger during its last flight, with the hydrogen leak visible.

From Julian Frost on the Challenger disaster: “And 19 years and a day after the Apollo 1 launchpad fire, another, bigger disaster occurred: the Challenger exploded.”

I wrote about this in gory detail back in 2011, and still remember it vividly. Here’s a snippet:

Televisions were wheeled into our classrooms so we could watch the launch live on television. While these astronauts weren’t going to the Moon (which was — to my second grade mind — the coolest thing any astronaut could ever do), they were getting to ride into outer space aboard the Space Shuttle Challenger.

Watching ascending rocket closely, you could see that something might be wrong. The main tank appeared to catch on fire, and the flames from the rockets beneath seemed to rise up the spacecraft. But nobody was prepared for what happened next.

Although we had no way of knowing at the time, the entire crew of seven — Gregory Jarvis, Christa McAuliffe, Ronald McNair, Ellison Onizuka, Judith Resnik, Francis Scobee, and Michael Smith — most likely weren’t immediately killed by the explosion, but rather by either depressurization and freezing, or by impact with the sea below.

It was heartbreaking to watch, but these seven people gave their lives in pursuit of the exploration of the Universe they all loved. We keep exploring, despite our setbacks, even the ones that have their costs measured in human lives. The Universe and our pursuit of knowing more about it still goes on.

Illustration credit: NASA.

Illustration credit: NASA.

From Denier on the James Webb Space Telescope: “Are you sure about the potential for refueling? I have been unable to get a definitive answer on that. Seemingly every time someone says the potential exists, someone else says the JWST doesn’t have refueling ports and the technology to pull off such a mission would be more expensive than simply putting a new and better telescope out there. Both stories sound plausible. Do you have details on which is the straight scoop?”

You have a lot of questions, and there’s right on both sides of what you’re asking. No, JWST isn’t really built for refueling; they didn’t make it easy with an accessible port or anything. It would be expensive for sure: roughly $100-150 million for the launch and possibly another few hundred million for the mission and supplies itself. But the technology to pull off such a mission:

  1. exists,
  2. is estimated to be no more than 5% the total cost of JWST,
  3. and could extend the mission’s lifetime by a factor of 2 (or more, since there’s no need to re-deploy all the equipment).

So the potential exists, but it would take some reverse engineering. Still, people wanted to de-orbit both Hubble and the ISS by now, and both are still going. It’s a lot easier to get the will to extend the lifetime of something after it’s been succeeding for 10 years. Yes, WFIRST will be in the works then, and based on how NASA politics are going, an even larger UV/visible/IR telescope is probably going to fly in the 2030s, but keeping JWST alive for another decade for ~5% its initial cost — if it’s operating really well after the first decade — is a no-brainer.

Image credit: Andrew Z. Colvin of Wikimedia Commons.

Image credit: Andrew Z. Colvin of Wikimedia Commons.

From Ragtag Media on how we don’t need NASA: “Society is generating Billionaires daily to the point where technology and finance no longer need nation states to fund them.”

And what is the largest project a billionaire has donated to that funds pure astrophysics/astronomical science? You find the answer to that, and see if you still reach the same conclusion. (Which you will, if you completely don’t value astrophysics/astronomy research.)

Image credit: ESO/F. Comeron.

Image credit: ESO/F. Comeron.

From Naked Bunny with a Whip on “Monstrous cosmic gas cloud set to ignite the Milky Way”: “Now that’s a headline!”

The “big gas cloud” I’ve shown you above is pretty big: tens of light years long and containing enough gas to create hundreds of new stars. The one I wrote about in the article is nearly a thousand times longer in every dimension, and contains enough gas that if all of it formed stars, we’d create close to 100 million of them. Because of the way star formation quenches, we’ll “only” get about 2 million out of the cloud, but that’s not bad for 30 million years from now! Now about the headline itself: sometimes I write them, sometimes Forbes writes them. (This one was my doing.) What should be the goal of a headline, though? In my opinion, it’s this:

Image credit: NASA / JWST / HST team.

Image credit: Alex Knapp; screenshotted from Google News.

It’s generating traffic and eyeballs, so long as you don’t have to resort to a headline that’s untrue or that you’re ashamed of. Yes, I will use sensationalized phrasing in the title of an article to bring all the boys and girls to the yard. I could teach you, but I’d have to charge.

Image credit: K. Batygin and M. E. Brown Astronom. J. 151, 22 (2016), with modifications/additions by E. Siegel.

Image credit: K. Batygin and M. E. Brown Astronom. J. 151, 22 (2016), with modifications/additions by E. Siegel.

From jon on planet nine, kind of: “So we’re meant to be skeptical about a possible planet, but some strange exotic “dark” matter that’s completely undetectable but makes up most of the universe is somehow believable?”

There is one set of observations that points to planet nine, and it’s a very incomplete set (you know, the properties of six objects). There are about 20 sets of observations that point to dark matter, including:

  • rotating spiral galaxies,
  • the velocity profiles of elliptical galaxies,
  • the peculiar velocities of galaxy pairs,
  • the motions of galaxies in clusters and groups,
  • the large-scale structure of the Universe,
  • the fluctuations in the CMB,
  • the baryon acoustic oscillations observed at different redshifts,
  • the bending of light due to gravitational lensing,
  • and the separation of gas and mass during cluster and group collisions,

just off the top of my head in 30 seconds.

Image credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/UCDavis/W.Dawson et al; Optical: NASA/STScI/UCDavis/W.Dawson et al.

Image credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/UCDavis/W.Dawson et al; Optical: NASA/STScI/UCDavis/W.Dawson et al.

My point is that there is a ton of indirect evidence for dark matter, and there is a tiny amount of indirect evidence for planet nine. Now if there is a planet nine, it will be much easier to directly detect than dark matter, because of the nature of planets and the nature of dark matter. You don’t have to like it, but if you’re going to talk about it like you know what you’re talking about, you owe it to yourself to be informed. And finally…

Image credit: Fullmetal Alchemist: Brotherhood.

Image credit: Fullmetal Alchemist: Brotherhood.

From PJ on how you might think of behaving online: “We (most) come here to learn something, or to offer further reinforcement of a topic. Most of us try to avoid the friction that occurs from time to time, but put up with it to receive the good bits. If you feel offended by someones negative comments, just ignore, rather than rattle the cage further.”

This is good life advice in general: choose your fights wisely, or you’ll wind up wasting your energy on the useless bits rather than the parts that could really benefit from your passionate energy.

Thanks for a great week, everyone, and looking forward to what next week and the start of February has to offer!



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1KN8Mqm

“What you get by achieving your goals is not as important as what you become by achieving your goals.” -Zig Ziglar

What a week it’s been here at Starts With A Bang, where we’ve been proud to bring a number of stories to light for you. This past week, in case you missed anything, we’ve tackled:

There’s plenty in the works, including (next week) our next podcast, a live-blog event, more on the Future of Astronomy and even more science stories from the Universe. You’ve also (as always) had plenty to say, so let’s see what it all comes down to as we jump into our Comments of the Week!

Image credit: SN 1994D, High-Z Supernova Search Team, HST, NASA.

Image credit: SN 1994D, High-Z Supernova Search Team, HST, NASA.

From Omega Centauri on a story I didn’t cover: “[T]he superluminus supernova has been
much in the news. Reportedly its brightness blows the usual suspects out of the water. I’m a bit skeptical, if its some sort of
compact object or black hole thing, might the radiation pattern be highly non spherically symmetric? perhaps we are in the path of a beam?”

So this is based on this story, and this is interesting for a number of reasons, but this isn’t unique! Here’s the deal:

  • Most type Ia supernovae come from a source that’s between 1 and 3 times the mass of our Sun: not that much matter.
  • Most type II (core-collapse) supernovae are from stars between 20-40 times the mass of our Sun: a lot, but not the most.
  • The biggest supernovae are pair-instability supernovae/hypernovae, where ultra-massive stars produce matter-antimatter pairs and collapse due to the reduced pressure.
Image credit: NASA / CXC / M. Weiss.

Image credit: NASA / CXC / M. Weiss.

Supernovae like SN2006gy are thought to collapse under this mechanism, but the new supernova is even more luminous than that (although it’s more than 10 times as distant). Why? Are there collimated jets pointing at us? We don’t know, but the magnetar explanation is challenged by it. Another possibility includes the formation of quark stars, but this is one case where, to be frank, observationalists are leading the theorists. We have work to do!

Image screenshotted from Forbes.

Image screenshotted from Forbes.

From Kristofer Bergstrom on the living Universe: “I’m sorry to say I don’t access your full writings since they moved to Forbes. Forbes has a no ad-blocker policy which means users can’t use the site without exposing their browser to risk (and exposing themselves to ads). Probably not too many people are as decidedly anti-ad as I am, but I thought I should let you know there’s at least one of us that can’t access your writings since they’ve moved to Forbes.”

I seem to get these comments every week, and I don’t have a problem with it. Currently, I’m bringing hundreds of thousands of new visits to Forbes each month, which they’re very happy about. But there’s a limit to the pressure I can put on them. I continue to let them know about your frustrations (and I’m frustrated, too), and will continue to make recommendations. However, unless you have a platform for me that’s going to compensate me for all the writing I do as well as (or better) than what’s on the table, I won’t be moving. Wait the extra week if you don’t want to turn off your adblocker and then go to Medium. But I need to make a living, which I hope we all understand.

Image credit: NASA, of the aftermath of the Apollo 1 fire.

Image credit: NASA, of the aftermath of the Apollo 1 fire.

From Art on Apollo 1: “In retrospect it seems intuitively obvious that the combination of oxygen, at a raised pressure, materials that had never been flame tested in an oxygen atmosphere, and a hatch that took an extended time to open would lead to tragedy.”

Everything is easier in hindsight. The tough thing was doing something that took five confounding mistakes to lead to tragedy, but the odds of each one wasn’t as low as it should’ve been. That’s the really hard part. The really difficult thing to realize is that each new tragedy — even if it leads to policy change — will only help prevent that now-previous tragedy from happening again. How do we anticipate the next tragedy? That’s something we’re still working on.

Image credit: three shots of the challenger during its last flight, with the hydrogen leak visible.

Image credit: three shots of the challenger during its last flight, with the hydrogen leak visible.

From Julian Frost on the Challenger disaster: “And 19 years and a day after the Apollo 1 launchpad fire, another, bigger disaster occurred: the Challenger exploded.”

I wrote about this in gory detail back in 2011, and still remember it vividly. Here’s a snippet:

Televisions were wheeled into our classrooms so we could watch the launch live on television. While these astronauts weren’t going to the Moon (which was — to my second grade mind — the coolest thing any astronaut could ever do), they were getting to ride into outer space aboard the Space Shuttle Challenger.

Watching ascending rocket closely, you could see that something might be wrong. The main tank appeared to catch on fire, and the flames from the rockets beneath seemed to rise up the spacecraft. But nobody was prepared for what happened next.

Although we had no way of knowing at the time, the entire crew of seven — Gregory Jarvis, Christa McAuliffe, Ronald McNair, Ellison Onizuka, Judith Resnik, Francis Scobee, and Michael Smith — most likely weren’t immediately killed by the explosion, but rather by either depressurization and freezing, or by impact with the sea below.

It was heartbreaking to watch, but these seven people gave their lives in pursuit of the exploration of the Universe they all loved. We keep exploring, despite our setbacks, even the ones that have their costs measured in human lives. The Universe and our pursuit of knowing more about it still goes on.

Illustration credit: NASA.

Illustration credit: NASA.

From Denier on the James Webb Space Telescope: “Are you sure about the potential for refueling? I have been unable to get a definitive answer on that. Seemingly every time someone says the potential exists, someone else says the JWST doesn’t have refueling ports and the technology to pull off such a mission would be more expensive than simply putting a new and better telescope out there. Both stories sound plausible. Do you have details on which is the straight scoop?”

You have a lot of questions, and there’s right on both sides of what you’re asking. No, JWST isn’t really built for refueling; they didn’t make it easy with an accessible port or anything. It would be expensive for sure: roughly $100-150 million for the launch and possibly another few hundred million for the mission and supplies itself. But the technology to pull off such a mission:

  1. exists,
  2. is estimated to be no more than 5% the total cost of JWST,
  3. and could extend the mission’s lifetime by a factor of 2 (or more, since there’s no need to re-deploy all the equipment).

So the potential exists, but it would take some reverse engineering. Still, people wanted to de-orbit both Hubble and the ISS by now, and both are still going. It’s a lot easier to get the will to extend the lifetime of something after it’s been succeeding for 10 years. Yes, WFIRST will be in the works then, and based on how NASA politics are going, an even larger UV/visible/IR telescope is probably going to fly in the 2030s, but keeping JWST alive for another decade for ~5% its initial cost — if it’s operating really well after the first decade — is a no-brainer.

Image credit: Andrew Z. Colvin of Wikimedia Commons.

Image credit: Andrew Z. Colvin of Wikimedia Commons.

From Ragtag Media on how we don’t need NASA: “Society is generating Billionaires daily to the point where technology and finance no longer need nation states to fund them.”

And what is the largest project a billionaire has donated to that funds pure astrophysics/astronomical science? You find the answer to that, and see if you still reach the same conclusion. (Which you will, if you completely don’t value astrophysics/astronomy research.)

Image credit: ESO/F. Comeron.

Image credit: ESO/F. Comeron.

From Naked Bunny with a Whip on “Monstrous cosmic gas cloud set to ignite the Milky Way”: “Now that’s a headline!”

The “big gas cloud” I’ve shown you above is pretty big: tens of light years long and containing enough gas to create hundreds of new stars. The one I wrote about in the article is nearly a thousand times longer in every dimension, and contains enough gas that if all of it formed stars, we’d create close to 100 million of them. Because of the way star formation quenches, we’ll “only” get about 2 million out of the cloud, but that’s not bad for 30 million years from now! Now about the headline itself: sometimes I write them, sometimes Forbes writes them. (This one was my doing.) What should be the goal of a headline, though? In my opinion, it’s this:

Image credit: NASA / JWST / HST team.

Image credit: Alex Knapp; screenshotted from Google News.

It’s generating traffic and eyeballs, so long as you don’t have to resort to a headline that’s untrue or that you’re ashamed of. Yes, I will use sensationalized phrasing in the title of an article to bring all the boys and girls to the yard. I could teach you, but I’d have to charge.

Image credit: K. Batygin and M. E. Brown Astronom. J. 151, 22 (2016), with modifications/additions by E. Siegel.

Image credit: K. Batygin and M. E. Brown Astronom. J. 151, 22 (2016), with modifications/additions by E. Siegel.

From jon on planet nine, kind of: “So we’re meant to be skeptical about a possible planet, but some strange exotic “dark” matter that’s completely undetectable but makes up most of the universe is somehow believable?”

There is one set of observations that points to planet nine, and it’s a very incomplete set (you know, the properties of six objects). There are about 20 sets of observations that point to dark matter, including:

  • rotating spiral galaxies,
  • the velocity profiles of elliptical galaxies,
  • the peculiar velocities of galaxy pairs,
  • the motions of galaxies in clusters and groups,
  • the large-scale structure of the Universe,
  • the fluctuations in the CMB,
  • the baryon acoustic oscillations observed at different redshifts,
  • the bending of light due to gravitational lensing,
  • and the separation of gas and mass during cluster and group collisions,

just off the top of my head in 30 seconds.

Image credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/UCDavis/W.Dawson et al; Optical: NASA/STScI/UCDavis/W.Dawson et al.

Image credit: X-ray: NASA/CXC/UCDavis/W.Dawson et al; Optical: NASA/STScI/UCDavis/W.Dawson et al.

My point is that there is a ton of indirect evidence for dark matter, and there is a tiny amount of indirect evidence for planet nine. Now if there is a planet nine, it will be much easier to directly detect than dark matter, because of the nature of planets and the nature of dark matter. You don’t have to like it, but if you’re going to talk about it like you know what you’re talking about, you owe it to yourself to be informed. And finally…

Image credit: Fullmetal Alchemist: Brotherhood.

Image credit: Fullmetal Alchemist: Brotherhood.

From PJ on how you might think of behaving online: “We (most) come here to learn something, or to offer further reinforcement of a topic. Most of us try to avoid the friction that occurs from time to time, but put up with it to receive the good bits. If you feel offended by someones negative comments, just ignore, rather than rattle the cage further.”

This is good life advice in general: choose your fights wisely, or you’ll wind up wasting your energy on the useless bits rather than the parts that could really benefit from your passionate energy.

Thanks for a great week, everyone, and looking forward to what next week and the start of February has to offer!



from ScienceBlogs http://ift.tt/1KN8Mqm